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The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly Vol 8, No 1 THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Volume 8, No. 1 Spring 2010 THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 8, No. 1 Spring 2010 Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Institute for Security and Development Policy The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Stockholm, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP). It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading center for research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. The China and Eurasia Forum is an independent forum which seeks to bring together regional experts, academics, government policy makers, and business leaders with an interest in the growing relationship between China and Eurasia. Focusing primarily on Sino-Central Asian, Sino-Russian, and Sino-Caucasian relations, the aim of China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is to foster discussion and information sharing between a geographically distant community that recognizes the significance of China's emergence in this important part of the world. The journal aims to provide our readers with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Abstracting Services The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is currently noted in the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS) and is also available through EBSCO Research Databases. Subscriptions Subscription inquiries and requests for hard copies should be addressed to: The China and Eurasia Forum, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, United States or The China and Eurasia Forum, The Silk Road Studies Program, Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, 13130 Nacka-Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected] Visit our Website at: www.chinaeurasia.org The statements of fact or opinion expressed in the articles and commentaries do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and sponsors. Printed in Singapore by Stallion Press Ltd. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2007. The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly (ISSN 1653-4212) is published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program <www.silkroadstudies.org>. Map used in the cover design is courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin. This publication was made possible with the support of The Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs and The Swedish Research Council THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY EDITORIAL BOARD Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Managing Editor Sébastien Peyrouse Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Associate Managing Editor Christopher Len Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Senior Advisors Daniel L. Burghart Malia K. Du Mont National Defense University, Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum USA and Former Associate Editor of the CEF Quarterly, USA Svante Cornell Director, Institute for Security and Matthew Oresman Development Policy, Sweden Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum, Former Director of the China-Eurasia David M. Finkelstein Forum and Former Editor of the CEF The CNA Corporation, USA Quarterly, USA Pan Guang S. Frederick Starr Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus China Institute, USA Bates Gill Farkhod Tolipov Director, Stockholm International Peace National University of Uzbekistan, Research Institute, Sweden Uzbekistan Zhao Huasheng Dmitri V. Trenin Fudan University, China Carnegie Endowment for International James A. Millward Peace, Russia Georgetown University, USA THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Review Committee Jeremy Allouche Marlène Laruelle Institute of Development Studies (IDS), Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk University of Sussex, UK Road Studies Program, USA/Sweden Luca Anceschi Li Lifan La Trobe University, Melbourne, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Australia China Eric Brown Richard Pomfret Hudson Institute, Washington D.C., USA University of Adelaide, Australia Nicolas De Pedro Anita Sengupta Complutense University, Madrid, Spain Institute of Asian Studies, Kolkata, India Mohammed-Reza Djalili Meena Singh Roy Institut Universitaire des hautes études Institute for Defence Studies and internationales, Genève, Switzerland Analyses, New Delhi, India Thierry Kellner Gael Raballand Brussels University, Brussels, Belgium World Bank, Washington D.C., USA Simbal Khan Uyama Tomohiko Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan Pakistan Thrassy Marketos Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Greece THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 8, No. 1 Spring 2010 Contents Editor’s Note.…………………………………….……………………………..1 ~~ Commentaries ~~ On Initiative Groups and Presidential Elections: Shifting State-Society Relations in Uzbekistan Daniel Stevens…….....………………………….……………………………….5 The Afghan Issue in the Politics of Eurasian Great Powers: Russia, China, India and Iran Alexander Knyazev.………………..…………….…………………………….11 Reassessing a “New Great Game” between India and China in Central Asia Jen-kun Fu…………………..……..………….……………………………..….17 ~~ Analytical Articles ~~ The Fedayeen of the Reich: Muslims, Islam and Collaborationism During World War II Bruno De Cordier..………………………….…….………………………….33 From a Junken City to a Showcase City: The Formation and Development of the City of Shihezi in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China Yuhui Li…....…………………………………..….…………………………….55 Sustaining the Dragon, Dodging the Eagle and Barring the Bear? Assessing the Role and Importance of Central Asia in Chinese National Strategy James Bosbotinis.....……………..……………….…………………………….73 India’s Energy Security Strategy Towards the Caspian Sea Region Elaheh Koolaee and Masoud Imani-Kalesar.…..……………………….95 Great Power Politics: India’s Absence from Ideological Energy Diplomacy in Central Asia Simon Shen…………………………………….….…………………………….115 The Petroleum Legal Framework of Iran: History, Trends and the Way Ahead Nima Nasrollahi Shahri….………………..….…………………………….115 Re-thinking Europe’s Gas Supplies after the 2009 Russia- Ukraine Crisis Anna Aseeva…………..…………………..….….…………………………….115 1 Editor’s Note Dear Readers, For some years, springtime, and more exactly the month of April, has been the occasion for political demonstrations in Georgia as well as in Kyrgyzstan. In April 2010, the latter was shaken by a new “revolution” of an as-yet unknown color and consequence. For several months, critiques of the increasingly authoritarian management of President Kurmanbek Bakiev worked to redynamize the opposition, despite its internal divisions. The President used legislative reforms to reduce further the scope of action of the parliament, the opposition parties, and the media. Presidential nepotism was also heavily criticized in public opinion, which denounced the President’s son, Maksim, for attempting to take control over the country’s key economic sectors. The demonstrations multiplied rapidly. Then, following a bloody battle between the forces of order and the demonstrators in Talas, the country erupted into violence, resulting in the deaths of a hundred persons. The government fled without attempting to mount some resistance to the provisional government, at whose head is the former Foreign Affairs minister Roza Otunbaeva. This event revived the concerns of neighboring countries as well as those of the international community about the stability of Kyrgyzstan, where state control is weak and the economy highly criminalized. Bakiev’s flight to his southern bastion also highlighted the latent North-South tensions, putting the unity of the country in danger. Early in 2010, the United States started to formulate a more comprehensive policy for Central Asia, hoping to strengthen economic cooperation and to develop collaboration on the Afghan issue. However, U.S.-Kyrgyz negotiations on opening a antiterrorist centre in Batken have raised controversial considerations in Central Asia and the geostrategic balance remains relatively unfriendly to Western powers. At the economic level, Central Asia will probably be at the heart of a readjustment of the U.S. strategy on export routes for hydrocarbons. Indeed, Washington and the European Union seem determined to depoliticize the future Nabucco pipeline by considering Moscow’s participation in the hope of weakening the Russian competition coming from the South Stream project, but also to bring Turkey and Azerbaijan
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