Editor’s Note India Dear Readers, I welcome you to the second issue of the in-house journal of the India Foundation Foundation. Our maiden issue was well received by our readers and we Journal have received very encouraging feedback from them. We have also received some constructive suggestions that we will endeavor to incorporate in our upcoming issues. The focus of this issue is Afghanistan and the Region: Security, Vol. No. 1 Stability and Prosperity. Af-Pak region has been the epicenter of global Issue No. 2 terrorism with its sweep from US to Europe, Africa and Asia. It has special import for India not only because of geographic proximity but the fact that September 2013 Pakistan has used terror as an instrument of state policy both against Afghanistan and India. In the wake of the US decision to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan and provide political space to Taliban, a state of uncertainty has been created that has serious security implications for India Editor and the rest of the world. To review the existing ground situation, possible scenarios and analyze likely policy options, a conference was organized Shaurya Doval by India Foundation in Washington in collaboration with DC-based think- tanks. We will be sharing in this issue some of the perspectives from across Assistant Editor the spectrum of the key speakers from India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Guru Prakash the US. India Foundation organized a seminar in New Delhi: ‘Rakhine (Myanmar) to Bodh Gaya (India): Understanding Muslim Buddhist Conflict’. The seminar covered various dimensions, including a historical Publisher perspective of the Rohingya problem in Myanmar and also explored its India Foundation implications for India. India Foundation also held a conference in New Delhi Bangalore on Cultural Nationalism – The Indian Perspective. The conference attempted to initiate a wider discourse among academics and E-mail [email protected] thinkers on the concept and theory of cultural nationalism in the Indian
Website setting. A brief summary of these events is included in this Journal. www.indiafoundation.in This journal is intended to provoke and engage dialogue between the readers and the Foundation on issues of national importance. We hope you enjoy this issue and stay engaged with us as we try and bring to you well
for private circulation only researched perspectives on issues that matter.
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {1} Tentative Schedule
27 September, 2013
1.00 PM : Registration Centre for Security and Strategy (CSS) 2.00 PM - 6.00 PM : India-Tibet Border (LAC) Cordially invites you to the 6:30 PM - 8:30 PM : India -Myanmar Border BORDERS’ CONFERENCE 28 September, 2013 Friday, September 27, 2013 and Saturday, September 28, 2013 9.00 AM - 2.00 PM : India-Pakistan Border including LoC For the first time in India, a conference to discuss 2.30 PM - 5.00 PM : India-Bangladesh Border the ground-realities prevailing on our land-borders, is being organised by the Centre for Security and Venue : Strategy of the India Foundation. The conference Multi Purpose Hall, aims to provide a platform for interface between India International Centre (IIC), various stakeholders in management of India’s New Delhi, India border areas. The participants include policy makers, executive agencies, and the people living -: Speakers at the Conference :- in border areas. This is especially important considering the state of country’s security and the Shri Arun Shourie, Former Union Minister, New volatile relationship that it shares with its Delhi neighbours. The sessions of this conference will have various academic, intelligence and security Shri Bertil Lintner, Columnist and Author, Thailand experts, diplomats, Government officials and Amb. Hardeep Singh Puri, Former Permanent representatives from the security forces. Besides, Representative of India to the UN, New York we will also have representatives from various Amb. P Stobdan, Former Ambassador, New border villages, NGOs and the refugee community. Delhi The borders that will be covered in this conference are as follows: Amb. G. Parthasarthi, Former High Commissioner to Pakistan, New Delhi Indo-Pakistan border: Indo-Bangladesh –in Kutch area of Gujarat border: Lieutenant General B S Jaswal (Retd.), GOC-in-C, –in Rajasthan –in Tripura Northern Command, Chandigarh –in Punjab –in Meghalaya –in Jammu & Kashmir –in Assam Shri R N Ravi, Former Special Director, IB, New –in Bihar Delhi Indo-Tibet border: –in West Bengal Shri P K Mishra, Former IG, BSF, Rajasthan –in Jammu & Kashmir (LAC) –in Mizoram –in Himachal Pradesh Shri Manvendra Singh, Former MP, Barmer –in Uttarakhand Indo-Myanmar border: Representatives from border villages, NGOs and –in Sikkim –in Arunachal Pradesh the refugee groups –in Arunachal Pradesh –in Nagaland –in Manipur LoC in Jammu & –in Mizoram For registration visit our Kashmir website : www.indiafoundation.in FOCUS
Afghanistan and the Region : Security, Stability and Prosperity *Rajnath Singh
onourable Chairman and a very which was also the world’s biggest statue of distinguished friend of India,Mr. Ed Royce, Bhagwan Buddha, was vandalized by the Hmy fellow-panelists, ladies and gentlemen! fundamentalist regime of Taliban in 2001. At that We in BJP are the believers of the ancient Indian time, as a symbol of the common commitment of dictum – Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam – the entire India and Afghanistan to global peace and world is one family. I address all of you, our harmony, I pledged to build the replica of Bamiyan American hosts, participants from various Buddha at Kushi Nagar in Uttar Pradesh, a town important think tanks and institutions, embassy where Bhagwan Buddha had attained Heavenly and government representatives, as well as Abode. I am sure this Conference would be a members of Afghan, Pakistan and Indian forum to reiterate that commitment by all the communities, in that spirit. distinguished people here. My warm greetings to all of you I convey Afghanistan has passed through very difficult special greetings to my friends in and from times in the last three decades. Conflict with the Afghanistan. Soviet Union, followed by the repressive Taliban India and Afghanistan share a millennia-old regime brought innumerable sufferings to the strong civilizational bond. The linkages go back people of Afghanistan. They now deserve peace to the Harappan civilization, the spread of and stability. Buddhism, followed by the spread of Islam under We applaud their determined efforts to the Turks and later the Moghuls. establish a democratic and progressive We in the BJP attach key importance to these Afghanistan. As the world’s largest democracy, age-old bonds as the foundation for a lasting India would always be there to help Afghan people friendship with our north-western neighbour. in their endeavor to democratize, modernize and I would like to recall that I was the Chief stabilize their country. US, the world’s oldest Minister of India’s most populous State, Uttar democratic nation, will, I am sure, stand with Pradesh, when one of Afghanistan’s most Afghanistan in the long run in its democratic prestigious and adorable historic sites at Bamiyan, nation-building enterprise.
* The author is the President of Bharatiya Janata Party
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {3} In fact it was the intervention of the Parliament was attacked in 2001. The commercial International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), capital and pride of India, the city of Mumbai, mostly consisting of the NATO countries’ troops, has been repeatedly attacked. The latest attack was actively assisted by the Northern Alliance Forces in 2008 in which 266 people, including 6 US in the end of 2001 that had paved the way for the nationals and several other foreigners, were decline and eventual overthrow of the Taliban brutally killed. regime. India supported this US-led intervention Indian Government has enough evidence to in Afghanistan to overthrow the obscurantist prove that the perpetrators of these crimes against Taliban regime that sheltered Al-Qaeda on Afghan humanity found shelter and safe haven in our soil. The regime also allowed terror groups neighboring country, Pakistan. Incidentally Osama targeting India to be trained on its territory. We bin Laden, the Al Qaeda chief too was found commend the success of US/NATO forces in hiding in Abbottabad in Pakistan. neutralizing the Al Qaeda and eliminating its The extremists thrive less on popular support leader found hiding in a military garrison town and more on the clandestine support they get from in Pakistan. certain political, military and intelligence outfits We don’t make a distinction between the Al in pursuit of their stated or unstated strategic and Qaeda and the Taliban on the premise that one ideological objectives. This is at the root of the primarily targets the West and the other does not. growth and survival of the terrorist groups in the For us, the menace of religious extremism and region. I am pained to state that we the Indians terrorism is seamless as the roots of the ideology and the Afghans have been exposed to threats from of intolerance are the same and can be directed the terrorists who have their safe havens in our against any perceived enemy as the shared neighborhood. situation demands. The US has made Pakistan a partner in its Despite the success in decimating the Al war on terror in Afghanistan in the last ten years. Qaeda, the menace of terrorism emanating from The results have been a mixed bag. While the the region persists. The attack on the twin towers Taliban and Al Qaeda have lost many key leaders in New York showed the great geographic reach and thousands of fighters they continue to hold of terrorists. The recent terrorist attack in Boston, on to their strongholds in the South and East of despite all the international and homeland security Afghanistan and also inside Pakistan territory. steps that the US has taken, demonstrates the This happened primarily because along the way continuing vulnerability of democracies to sometime in 2003/4 the US had lost focus due to this menace. its campaigns elsewhere and the terror outfits had India has been a target on the radar of gained the breathing space to regroup and terrorists in the last three decades. The Indian resurrect. The result was further fleecing of
{4} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 American dollars by Pakistan, further dependence amount is spent on development related activity of America on that country and further rise in the like the construction of the new Parliament activities of terror networks. Pakistan needs to do building, dams, roads, electricity to Kabul, a lot to tackle this menace. Unless the fundamental hospitals, schools etc. problem of safe havens of these groups and their We are committed to continuing this leadership in Pakistan is addressed, the Taliban development aid to Afghanistan as long as they menace cannot be eradicated. The BJP expresses need it. We are also committed to making Afghan cautious optimism keeping in view the track record government, the nodal agency for implementation of successive regimes in Pakistan. of these projects. India doesn’t want to interfere The US has to make its own decisions or control the affairs of that country either directly regarding the final scope and time-table of or through proxies. We are in favor of a withdrawal from Afghanistan. But its decision has democratic, sovereign and progressive implications for the region in terms of the combat Afghanistan capable of managing its own affairs against extremism. As a major power in the region, without any foreign intervention. For the land- India needs to be properly informed about any US’ locked Afghanistan to have greater decisional initiatives in the region besides other countries. It autonomy and boost its economy, improved is important to ensure that the country doesn’t connectivity with the outside world can be a major relapse into the pre-2001 anarchic mode once the game changer. Any efforts to replace the present NATO troops withdraw. democratic arrangement with a totalitarian and It must be ensured that we do not leave behind sectarian Taliban regime would be detrimental not a ‘Black Hole’ of global security while leaving only to the people of Afghanistan or its immediate that country. neighborhood, but also to countries like India, India has supported reconciliation in Russia, China and even the US. It is the experience Afghanistan that is Afghan-led and Afghan- of the whole world that terrorism knows no owned. The sincere efforts in the first couple of boundaries. years after 9/11 had led to the Loya Jirgah meeting It is in this context that the situation in in 2003-2004 and emergence of a democratic Afghanistan must be weighed. The ideology of Islamic Republic of Afghanistan with a new totalitarianism, religious bigotry, violence and Constitution. The Government of Hamid Karzai terror, oppression of women and minorities, was a product of that exercise. India extended full aggressive anti-democracy and anti-modernity, support to the initiative and has been actively that sections of Taliban propagate, raises its head involved in supporting the democratic regime in various different forms including the ones like through development aid. India’s development aid Lashkar-e-Taiba. stands at $ 2 Billion today. Almost the entire Regional and global peace can be ensured
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {5} only if we complete the process that had begun in This is a travesty of facts; the creation of Taliban, 2001 and rein in and democratize the remnants of its takeover of Afghanistan, the Taliban-Al Qaeda Taliban and Al Qaeda completely. We in India have links, the presence of Osama bin Laden there, the shown to the world that democracy is the best attack on the Twin Towers traced to the Al Qaeda healer and answer to terrorism and totalitarianism. in Afghanistan, the subsequent US military The eagerness to engage with elements that intervention there, the presence of the Taliban want to return Afghanistan to the status of ‘Islamic leadership in Pakistan, the killing of NATO Emirates’ in the hope that they would deliver, and soldiers by the Haqqani group and others and the in the process humiliating and weakening the drone attacks against terrorist targets in Pakistan; democratic leadership, doesn’t behove well for the none of them have anything to do with India. region. If this accommodation with the Taliban is Afghanistan is a mineral rich country. To keep pursued with cooperation of the Pakistani military, it backward and poverty-stricken is a crime against as seems to be the case, the situation will become its people. India is willing to invest in its economic even more fraught, as many would say that it is development in a big way. the strategic ambition of the Pakistan Army to Our strategic partnership with Afghanistan control Afghanistan that is at the root of the embodies our long term commitment to the conflict there. political and economic stability of that country Pakistan must act responsibly to ensure a within the larger vision of closer ties between smooth transition in Afghanistan. We expect the Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent built new Pakistan leadership to show courage and around trade, energy and investment flows. The determination to rein in radical elements within best instrument to control the rise of extremist the ISI and the Pakistan Army from interfering in forces in this larger region is economic the internal affairs of Afghanistan after the NATO development and interdependence. Forces’ withdraw. Pakistan must realize that the A democratic, sovereign and progressive radical Taliban have caused enormous damage to Afghanistan will usher in peace and progress in not only the NATO Forces and the democratic the region that includes Iran, Pakistan, India, leadership in Afghanistan, but also the Baluchs Central Asian Republics, Russia and China. All and many others in Pakistan too. The plight of the these countries, along with the US, should have Baluch people at the hands of these extremist and stakes in ensuring a stable and peaceful terrorist elements calls for serious attention by the Afghanistan. international community. India and Afghanistan have traditionally been It is regrettable that once again an attempt is tied together by the Silk Route. If India does not being made to make-believe that the real cause of share a land border of 106 kms with Afghanistan the Afghan conflict is India-Pakistan rivalry there. today, it is because of Pakistan’s illegal occupation
{6} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 of this historical part of the state of Jammu and capabilities of the Afghan security forces. Kashmir since 1948. The Northern Regions of A democratic, developed and progressive Gilgit and Baltistan, whose people are subjected Afghanistan has the potential to act as a major to massive oppression and human rights violations springboard for economic progress and today, are a gateway for India to Central Asia with development of the entire region. This will bring which we have had millennia-old relations. India smiles back on the faces of our cousins, lights in should get rightful access to Central Asia through their households, dollars in their pockets and most the Gilgit-Baltistan region, with connectivity importantly peace in their neighborhood. being established between Kargil in India and Mutually beneficial and supportive India- Skardu in Gilgit. Afghanistan ties do not stand in the way of India is committed to supporting the Afghanistan’s ties with its other neighbours. We democratic forces in Afghanistan. The nascent would wish Afghanistan to have close, friendly Afghan security forces – the Afghan National ties with all its neighbours and exercise full Army and Afghan National Police – the combined freedom of choice in this regard. strength of which has reached nearly 350,000have India and the US must continue to work shown encouraging combat spirit in countering together constructively and transparently in the challenges on the ground. While keeping the ensuring that the end game in Afghanistan is overall political and security balances in view, played out smoothly, in Afghanistan’s best interest India is willing to provide its share of training and and without damaging the interests of its non-lethal support in bolstering the defensive neighbours. All should emerge as winners!
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {7} FOCUS
Stable Afghanistan - Vital for the South Asian Region
*Kanwal Sibal
014 will be a turning point in Afghanistan. option is not clear. In any case, the fact that this is Power will be handed over to a new President being considered shows that the US has no clear 2after elections. The US military will complete answer for the future. its withdrawal. The Afghan National Security The ANSF may have numbers and reports Forces will take over the security responsibility that they are performing well does not guarantee for the country. they will be operate successfully in a post-US The prospects for all these transitions do not withdrawal environment, especially if the US look promising. The new President will have to leaves in a politically unsatisfactory scenario. The be a Pashtun in order to ensure broad-based ethnic ANSF lacks heavy weaponry, air power and support. President Karzai was parachuted to the sophisticated intelligence capability. Will they be presidency without elections in post-war able to really cope as a cohesive force? circumstances in which the US and the West could The economic prospects in Afghanistan are impose their will. But the US and the West have not very reassuring despite the pledges of not been able to manage Karzai, despite having assistance made at Tokyo and the announced many levers at their command. Can a new Pashtun longer term commitments made by countries not leader emerge who can assure cross ethnic to abandon Afghanistan. If the US exercises a zero support? Will he able to deliver political stability military option, will that be compatible with a and a degree of economic development in very major economic commitment? Especially in a tight difficult circumstances? economic situation in the US and the Eurozone. The US has signed a Strategic Partnership Plans by countries to invest in Afghanistan not Agreement with Afghanistan, but the follow-up only depend on internal stability but also will take agreement- the Bilateral Security Agreement- on some years to yield results that will make a the status of the residual US forces in military difference on the ground. bases remains to be finalized. The US has failed Adding to the problem is the general to secure a suitable agreement in Iraq. If it fails in instability around Afghanistan. The internal Afghanistan, it is threatening a “zero option”. situation in Pakistan is fraught despite recent Whether this is pressure tactics or is a veritable elections. Iran has a new President but the nuclear
* The author is a retired diplomat who last served as the Foreign Secretary of India.
{8} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 dossier remains problematic and sanctions on Iran of any particular country over that of any other. It have been further tightened. The Arab world is in is for the Afghan government to take independent turmoil, with the so-called Arab Spring having decisions in a responsible way. India has no withered very rapidly. Religious extremism is intention to occupy the legitimate space that other spreading and this gives political oxygen to such neighboring countries of Afghanistan seek there. forces battling in Afghanistan. India has established a strategic relationship India has to cope with the situation as it with Afghanistan. This is anchored in a longer- develops. We have faced the worst when the term bilateral and regional perspective. India has Taliban took over Afghanistan in the mid-90s. We geo-political, strategic interests in this entire know of course what the dangers are ahead and region that forms a part of our strategic have tried to play our role in preventing untoward neighborhood. Afghanistan borders Central Asia conditions from developing through our political and Iran, apart from China and Pakistan. India has and economic engagement with Afghanistan. had intimate age-old ties with Afghanistan, Central India is pursuing a very responsible policy Asia and Iran, with the history of our country in Afghanistan. We want a sovereign, stable, linked to this region over centuries. democratic and prosperous Afghanistan, one that Central Asia is landlocked and so is is free from extremism and where human rights, Afghanistan. The development of this region faces especially those of women are respected. India is a particularly difficult challenge because of this. doing nothing contrary to the achievement of this This entire region needs the broadest possible objective in Afghanistan. choices for its development. It is natural for it to We are maintaining friendly relations with look for enhanced ties with India as the biggest Afghanistan based on equality and respect for economy in Southern Asia that can substantially sovereignty. We are not interfering in contribute to this objective. We are wiling Afghanistan’s internal affairs, arming any to respond. particular group or providing safe-havens for Afghanistan has huge mineral resources that terrorists or anti-government political groups to await exploitation. India is ready to invest large carry on violent activities against the legitimate sums in this sector, beginning with iron ore government of Afghanistan. extraction. Afghanistan is ready to offer to India a We have legitimate interests in Afghanistan natural resources corridor for development. For as a neighboring country and every right to be realizing this objective India needs better access present there. The international community cannot to Afghanistan, as Pakistan is not as yet willing to accept the curtailment of Afghan sovereignty by provide transit facilities through its territory to endorsing the principle that the Afghan Afghanistan. government should give precedence to the interests India is looking at the Chabahar port in Iran
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {9} as an access route to Afghanistan as well as Central India’s foreign assistance programme is Asia. We have recently committed $100 million considered and the billions Indian companies are to this project. US/EU sanctions on Iran are a investing abroad, this is not a very big sum. There complication for such efforts to give Afghanistan is full participation of the Afghan authorities in alternative options for its trade and facilitate selecting Indian assistance projects that are foreign investment there. The US government infrastructural as well as geared to meeting the should take a positive view of Indian investments basic requirements of people and localities spread in Iran that are specifically directed at easing over the country. A large number of our projects Afghanistan’s difficult situation, which will be are in the Pashtun areas. India has earned great important for stimulating the Afghan economy, at popularity because of the manner in which we have present too dependent on foreign assistance and conducted ourselves. income derived from the presence of foreign Economic development in Afghanistan and troops on its soil. the region is essential to check-mate the growth In developing trade and energy ties between of extremist ideologies in the region and associated Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent, a project terrorist activity. These concerns are uppermost that the US favours as part of the New Silk Road in India’s mind as we are most exposed as a project, Afghanistan is a critical hub. We support country to terrorism and supporting ideologies. As the TAPI pipeline project that will bring a secular, multi-religious state, we are particularly Turkmenistan gas to Pakistan and India through sensitive to such threats. Any boost given to these Afghanistan. India can fruitfully participate in extremist forces, even unwittingly, should be projects to increase electricity grids in the region unacceptable as our security is threatened. to alleviate regional energy-related problems. It is with concern therefore that we view the India is participating in several international outreach by US, Britain and others to the Taliban. efforts to contribute to development in We are not against any genuine attempt at Afghanistan, whether it is the Istanbul Process and reconciliation if all sides want it on a basis that the Heart of Asia conferences in Kabul in June respects the red lines drawn by the international 2012 and in Istanbul in April 2012, or the initiative community for a dialogue with the Taliban. We we took ourselves to organize a Delhi Investment find that these red lines are being blurred by Summit on Afghanistan also in June 2012, NATO’s anxiety to withdraw from Afghanistan by followed by the Tokyo Conference on aid to 2014 whatever the ground situation. Afghanistan in July 2012. Such a strategy gives the upper hand to the India’s own bilateral aid to Afghanistan has Taliban groups in Pakistan in negotiations as they reached $2 billion. Some see in this an effort by know time is on their side. us to seek undue influence in Afghanistan. If The rhetoric remains that the reconciliation
{10} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 process should be Afghan-led and Afghan-owned, being trained on its soil for attacks against India. but the manner in which the dialogue is being If the Taliban were to be accommodated again, structured does not suggest that it will be an India has reason to be concerned. independent intra- Afghan process. President We find that the policies our western friends Karzai has already distanced himself from the US in Afghanistan neither sufficiently steady nor initiative. We feel that nothing should be done transparent. behind the back of the Kabul government. Latest The argument that the Taliban has various statements from persons close to President Karzai currents in it and there are “moderate” Taliban express the deep concern of the Kabul government has been exposed as hollow by what has transpired about understandings that the US may have in Egypt where the same arguments distinguishing reached with Pakistan and the possibility of south between various strands in the Muslim and eastern Afghanistan being handed over to the Brotherhood and welcoming their assumption of Taliban, which could divide the country and power have proved devoid of worth. trigger an all-out conflict. India does not want conditions of ethnic The end-game in Afghanistan is being played conflict to be created again in Afghanistan. The out in an atmosphere of great suspicion and international community must safeguard against bickering amongst the principal parties involved. it. The post 2014 situation in Afghanistan remains The manner in which the Doha office of the very uncertain as the country will be faced with a Taliban was opened has made matters worse. The political and military transition even when the conduct of the Taliban in declaring themselves the external danger to the country has not been Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan made their own neutralized. end-game clear. Establishing democracy in Afghanistan by The link between the Taliban and Pakistan is integrating forces into the polity that are currently evident. One will have to wait and watch whether threatening the country will be a most difficult the declared US position that no single country enterprise. will be allowed to dominate post-2014 The root of the problem must be dealt with, Afghanistan can be sustained by it when its which is external support for Afghan extremists intention to withdraw from Afghanistan is so clear. and their instrumentalization for achieving the India has not been kept adequately in the military ambitions of a third country. So long as picture about the dialogue with the Taliban, despite there are safe havens for extremists outside India’s vital concerns being involved. India Afghanistan the problems will not go away. If the suffered when the Taliban came to power in 1996. Taliban retain influence in eastern and southern That was the only time India had no diplomatic Afghanistan, it is because their staging grounds relations with Afghanistan and terrorists were are outside.
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {11} India’s traditional ties have been with the hand in the presence of Al Qaida and Osama bin Pashtuns in Afghanistan. A large number of our Laden in Afghanistan; it had no responsibility for development projects are in Pashtun areas, and US/NATO military intervention in Afghanistan; they have been very well received by the local the Taliban groups or the Haqqani group are not people. We support ethnic harmony in in India; NATO soldiers have not been killed by Afghanistan, with the Pashtuns adequately groups operating from Indian soil. If the US has represented in governance, but this has to emerge had to resort to drone attacks against terrorists in through a democratic process, without the shadow Pakistan it is not because of India. of externally supported violence. We seek a friendly relationship with Our strategic partnership with Afghanistan Afghanistan. We seek no exclusive relationship. is not directed against any third country. The Afghanistan should have friendly relations with primary element in this strategic relationship is all its neighbours. We are willing to work with all not military. India is willing to contribute to the of them. India and China are already talking to capacity-building of the Afghan national security each other on Afghanistan. There should be no forces through training and supply of non-lethal problem in discussing Afghanistan with Pakistan equipment so that they can better provide security to in a constructive way that opens up the doors for the people after the withdrawal of foreign troops from transit facilities eventually. The new government the country. Our goals are primarily economically in Pakistan should think along those lines, rather oriented. We do not want to supplant NATO. than allowing Pakistan’s policies to be guided by It is a hugely perverse notion that the real the ambitions of its armed forces. problem in Afghanistan is India-Pakistan rivalry. We have been very constructive in our Those who feel that their intervention in dealings with the US on the Afghan issue. We have Afghanistan has not worked to stabilize the supported the international military intervention situation to the extent that they may have wanted in Afghanistan and the ouster of the Taliban and now want to cut costs at all cost should not regime from power. We have been sensitive to seek to transfer the responsibility for their failure US equities and concerns in Afghanistan despite on India’s shoulders. India was not responsible serious provocations from Pakistan, including the for the rise of religious extremism in the region; terrorist attacks against the Indian Embassy in it was not responsible for the civil war in Kabul and India-related targets there. We continue Afghanistan after the Soviet departure; it did not to be willing to work with the US in a positive put the the Taliban in power in Kabul; it had no and mutually beneficial way in Afghanistan.
{12} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 FOCUS
Security Implications of an Unstable Afghanistan
*Ajit Doval, KC
r. Chairman, ladies and gentlemen, I am ideological hub driving and uniting violent form grateful to the US-India Political Action of political Islam pose a threat that is real, more M Committee, American Foreign Policy complex and extensive. We are seeing some early Council and FIDS for providing me this trailers in the Gulf, North Africa and Western opportunity to speak on ‘Moderate and Balanced Eurasia etc. Afghanistan – Imperative for Regional Security’. The debate is not about agreeing upon the Friends, before I start, may I ask if there is anyone end objectives but examining emerging ground in this audience who holds a contrarian view and realities, re-validating assumptions on which our feels that an unstable Afghanistan ruled by policies rest, and evaluating new initiatives to see extremists would help regional security. Great, to what extent they enhance or reduce the there is none. Special thanks to the organizers once possibility of achieving the end objectives. Are again for giving me an opportunity to speak to an the critical players and stake holders involved in audience that unanimously supports the subject. this complex imbroglio pursuing the policies that Friends, like all of you, I also support the view will lead to a stable and moderate Afghanistan? but with a caveat. I believe that a moderate and Are there gaps and anomalies in their stated balanced Afghanistan is not only an absolute positions and real intentions? Good intentions are necessity for regional security but is equally important but not sufficient to achieve intended imperative for rest of the world. A radicalized and objectives. unstable Afghanistan, imbued with intolerant US and other members of ISAF have invested jihadi fervor, has implications for US or Europe heavily in last 12 years to bring peace and stability as much as for South Asia. Any resurgence of in Afghanistan. US alone has suffered over 2,000 violent Islamic terrorism will have a cascading military casualties and spent over $600 billion in effect that will define the future trajectory and this fight. The results though commendable, have intensity of global terrorism, endangering the not been proportionate to the cost. The outcome people here as much as in the region. Al-Qaeda is might have been different if assumptions about down but not out. Its structures and cadres have Pakistan, the non-NATO ally with front line been degraded but in its new incarnation as an responsibilities, had proven to be correct. The
* The author is the former Director, Intelligence Bureau, India
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {13} moral- when assumptions are wrong the strategies Taliban close to it but known to be soft on Al fail to deliver. Qaeda in the peace process have serious long term The security environment in Afghanistan is implications. The cost of promised co-operation far from optimal for smooth transition to a stable in future by Pakistan may prove more costly for and moderate Afghanistan post 2014. The Taliban the world than estimated. and their allies are better organised and resourced, The problems of governance, internal have deepened their coercive influence in new security and weak economics both in Pakistan and areas and exude a sense of triumphalism. Islamist Afghanistan may only give a fillip to further hardliners world over are looking at them with radicalization in these two countries. While the awe and respect. Within Afghanistan, their world is closing in to 2014 drawdown, the political engagement on the asking, if not cajoling, insurgency and law and order situation both in by their erstwhile adversaries has given them a Afghanistan and Pakistan is under serious drift. sense of legitimacy as victors on one hand and In first six months of this year, over 800 Afghan generated a fear of uncertainty and insecurity army and police personnel, 365 civilians and 63 among those who stood on the side of religious ISAF soldiers have lost their lives. The situation moderation, human rights and democracy. in Pakistan where Islamic terrorists are in control The recent developments indicate that there of large tracts in tribal regions is no better. In last is lack of synergy and coherence among major six years, more than 2000 Pakistanis including 400 stakeholders responsible for a stable post 2014 security personnel have been killed in terrorist Afghanistan. The ruckus over president Karzai related violence in the country. All these straws objecting to blatant display of the Taliban flag and in the wind raise serious doubts about emergence a plaque with the inscription ‘Islamic Emirate of of a moderate and stable Afghanistan after draw Afghanistan’ at its Doha office and US talking down unless basic correctives are applied at about a zero option in post 2014 Afghanistan this stage. underlines that the two players critical for stability I have great respect for the optimists, not in Afghanistan are not on the same page. The left because they are always right but because they over elements of Al-Qaeda and undented Haqqani keep the hopes alive, at least till the things go group being allowed by Pakistan to consolidate wrong. On Afghanistan, the hopes of optimists are their positions along Af-Pak border are ominous. premised on following assumptions: Pakistan ISI’s duplicitous deals with various Taliban will change. They will severe their factions of Taliban and other armed groups in links with the Al-Qaeda and its affiliates Afghanistan in furtherance of its unknown post with Pan-Islamic global agenda. People in 2014 agenda has compounded the situation further. last twelve years have developed vested Pakistan’s advocacies of including sections of interest in democracy, development, and
{14} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 respect for human rights. Taliban will not approach at this time should be to put in collective get their support if they revert to their old efforts to ensure that the above assumptions on ways. Democracy will stay and ethnic which the end objectives are premised are rivalries will be subsumed by a resurgent reinforced, resourced and refined. In my Afghan nationalism. assessment, there are plenty that we can do at this Nearly 3, 35,000 strong Afghan national stage but the window of opportunity may not army and police will remain a cohesive remain open indefinitely. force, will be adequately resourced and I consider that affirmative and coercive remain committed to its fight against terror; actions in three important domains from now till irrespective of political complexion of the 2014 will be necessary to ensure that the post- people who assume power. 2014 Afghanistan is reasonably stable and Most importantly, Pakistan will change and minimizes security threat to the region and the will not pursue its three decade old policy world at large. First, no agreement or assurances of furthering its strategic and political to Taliban or other radical groups contravening objectives by using Jihadi terror as an the constitution, as it exists or is amended through instrument to keep Afghanistan under its due process, should be made. It is also important control to the exclusion of others. It will that no covert arrangements are arrived at by no more follow a duplicitous policy in extraneous forces without taking into confidence dealing with terrorism and terrorist groups. the constitutionally elected government in If these assumptions hold good, even to a Afghanistan. Whatever its shortcomings and reasonable degree, we can hope for a moderate failings may be, which indeed are plenty, and stable Afghanistan. Friends, I am not a undermining constitutional or moral authority of scientist but a great admirer of Einstein. He a democratically elected government will weaken defined insanity; as doing the same thing over and constitutionalism and rule of law in Afghanistan over again and expecting that the results will be that has been one of the major achievements of different next time. Pakistan will change is a last 12 years. This is, however, still feeble and possibility but not a probability. needs to carefully nurtured. It is true policies and strategies cannot always Second, the continuation of foreign financial be made on the basis of totally proven facts and assistance for maintaining the ANSF would be crystal gazer’s ability to peep into the future. But necessary. The security apparatus should also it is necessary that we do not deny the existence remain apolitical and selection of military of facts because that is unpalatable and do not commanders should not be influenced by ethnic deliberately work in a direction that negates the considerations or political proximities. Large assumptions on which our policies rest. The right private armies and armed groups working under
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {15} varying influences, ranging from drug syndicates time. He indicated that there was no shift in to radical Islamic groups and to political parties, this mindset. under a well calibrated plan of action should be On July 3, Afghan Army Chief Gen Sher de-legitimized, disarmed and demobilized. Any Mohammed Karimi told the BBC that “The external forces trying to control or influence them Taliban are under Pakistan’s control – The to sub-serve their agenda in post 2014 setting leadership is in Pakistan.” should be shunned. Bruce Riedel – on July 3, said “By 2004 Third, Pakistan’s role is going to be critical under the leadership of its then spy chief in defining the future. It has a past that is not very and today top general, Ashfaq Kayani, re-assuring. Measures have to be taken and Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI, was compulsions created that makes it unaffordable deeply engaged in helping the Taliban again. for Pakistan to pursue a course that undermines It still is. The senior Taliban leadership stability in Afghanistan, boost terrorism in the including Mullah Omar is protected by the region and most importantly endanger Pakistan’s ISI in Quetta and Karachi.” own safety and long term security. Let us look at All this and many more such inputs indicate some expert views about Pakistan in the last that Pakistan continues to pursue a plan that may few weeks: not be in consonance with what the world wants – Barely two week back here in Washington a stable and moderate Afghanistan. It estimates DC, Ambassador Robert Blackwill speaking that with American provocation gone and political at the Ambassador’s Round Table said, space apportioned by its surrogates like Mullah “there is no evidence that Pakistan military Omar and Sirajuddin Haqqani, it will be able to has changed its view- its primary role is to play the Islamic card and regain lost ground with prevent the rise of India. It continues to look militant Islamic groups on both sides of the border. at Taliban as a strategic asset that can be The recalcitrant few could be neutralized with leveraged to further its strategic objectives, their support. On one hand it will help it to mount particularly viz a viz India.” over its precarious internal security predicament Brig AR Siddiqi writing in The News, and on the other make available “strategic assets” Pakistan’s leading daily on July 11 quoted for pursuing its agenda in the region like India, Musharraf when he was the President and Central Asia etc. Pakistan’s assumption may prove Army Chief, “Taliban are my strategic to be its nemesis but many others may have to reserve and I can unleash them in tens of pay a heavy price. thousands against India when I want...” Gen More than anyone else, it is the US which Kayani was probably the ISI Chief at that exercises the leverage and influence to make
{16} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 Pakistan follow the right course and force it to far beyond. From Al Qaeda down to the lone abandon its policy of using terrorists as wolves, the developments are being seen by the instruments of its state policy. It should be Jihadists as their victory against the sole unequivocally made clear to the new regime in superpower and rest of the world that stood by it Pakistan that support to any form of terrorism in their fight against terror. They also are hopeful irrespective of its cause, target or ideological that the new dispensation in Afghanistan will persuasion would be unacceptable and involve provide them a foothold for pursuing their global costs. All financial assistance and aid to Pakistan agenda. The challenge is what we can do to prove should be made conditional to its deliverance on them wrong. And, if despite our best efforts, the terrorist front. desired results do not come forth, start preparing I would like to conclude with a reiteration for the worst- an unstable Af Pak region - right that one assumption which must be dumped is that from today, jointly and more resolutely. You often the threat emanating from Afghanistan would only don’t have to fight the wars you had prepared for affect the region. It won’t. It will engulf the regions in advance.
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {17} FOCUS
The Afghan View: Success so far and Challenges Ahead *M. Ashraf Haidari
he Honorable Members of Congress, with landlocked countries, whose stability and Excellencies, sustainable development squarely depend on an TDistinguished Scholars, enabling regional environment. Afghanistan is a Ladies and Gentlemen, landlocked country and heavily relies on regional Please allow me to begin by thanking the co- cooperation, from economic to political and organizers of this timely Conference, including security sectors, in order to stabilize and develop the U.S. India Political Action Committee on a sustainable basis. (USINPAC), the American Foreign Policy Council However, as we recall from the recent history (AFPC), and the Foundation of India and Indian of Afghanistan, regional and international actors Diaspora Studies (FIIDS). In fact, I have been on have not always been kind to us, indeed, at their a private visit to the U.S., and did not come to own peril on the long run. During the Cold War, Washington-DC for this purpose. But my special Afghanistan was compelled to side with the West thanks to the Chairman of USINPAC, Mr. Sanjay led by the United States, and together we ended Puri, who kindly extended to me an invitation to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and speak today. I gladly accepted to do so, on a short subsequently toppled the Communist Regime, notice, given the importance of our enduring which the former Soviet Union supported. After strategic partnership with India and the United this victory, the Afghan people rightfully expected States. Of course, I am deeply honoured to share the international community and the United States this podium with Members of the United States in particular to help stabilize and rebuild our Congress, B.J.P. President the Honorable Rajnath country so that peace, freedom, democracy, and Singh Ji, as well as other distinguished speakers pluralism could gradually take root and become from the U.S. and India. institutionalized in Afghanistan. Ladies and Gentlemen, On the contrary, however, soon after the fall In an increasingly interdependent, of the Communist Regime, following the interconnected, and shrinking world, security and withdrawal of the defeated Soviet forces from stability in one country depends on the security Afghanistan, the post-war reconstruction and and stability of the rest. This is especially the case stabilization of our country were completely
*The author is Deputy Head of Mission, Embassy of Afghanistan, New Delhi
{18} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 neglected. Morally speaking, we were not Afghan comrades to help provide an enabling, rewarded for the destruction of our country, the secure environment for institutionalization of killing of over two million Afghans, and the peace and democracy in Afghanistan. I want their displacement of over five million others, all caused families and their Representatives in the United by a Cold War proxy conflict that we fought on States Congress to know that these forces’ ultimate behalf of the West. sacrifices have not gone in vain but have changed As the world disengaged from Afghanistan forever the lives of millions of Afghans across prematurely, our state institutions began failing, our country. our politics became factionalized, and our country At the same time, we are grateful to the Indian turned into a no man’s land, serving as a battlefield people and government for sharing their bread for regional proxy conflicts. This subsequently with us over the past 12 years. India’s generous allowed Pakistan to create and launch a assistance has complemented the aid provided by paramilitary force labelled as “Taliban” to invade the U.S. and other countries in building and occupy Afghanistan. And overtime, as we institutional capacity in our government, recall, the Taliban invited and sheltered the leader rebuilding our critical infrastructure, and of Al Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden, in Afghanistan, connecting Afghanistan commercially with the rest from where he and his transnationals network of the region. comfortably mastermind and executed the tragedy As a result of combined international aid over of 9/11. the past 12 years: Anyone who visited Afghanistan under the 10.5 million Afghans are enrolled in Taliban 12 years ago and has visited the country schools across Afghanistan. Each year, since would tell you about the fundamental ways more than 150,000 students graduate to in which Afghanistan has been transformed. Our pursue higher education in Afghanistan monumental achievements of the past 12 years and abroad, including India where we result from the sacrifices of many nations in have nearly 10,000 students pursuing Afghanistan. And we remain indebted to each of degrees in the different fields. the 48 nations, which have been providing us with Our per capita GDP of $591 in 2011 is moral and material support over the past decade. five times higher than $123 per capita Foremost, we are thankful to the United GDP of 10 years ago. States people and government for their continued Nearly 8,000 kilometers of national support, as they have stood by us every step of highways, regional highways, and the way to get where we are today. We honour the provincial roads have been built, cutting ultimate sacrifices of more than 3,000 American travel time by 75%. forces, which bravely fought alongside their Moreover, civil aviation has improved,
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {19} connecting Afghanistan with major Dialogue, which has met two times so far. But the regional hub. mechanism remains under-utilized, which must be Access to electricity has increased by reinvigorated and used to ensure strategic 250%, while some 18 million Afghans coordination of the U.S. and Indian aid efforts, in have mobile phones. Collectively, this has support of Afghanistan now and beyond 2014. helped us maintain a 10% growth rate, As we consolidate our gains of the past 12 creating many jobs that never existed in years with continued international support, we the Afghan history. have increasingly taken over from our allies the And democracy is flourishing. We have the tasks that any sovereign country should execute freest media in the region, one of the most on its own. Last June, the Afghan National progressive constitutions in the region, allowing Security Forces (ANSF) took over from the NATO 27% of women to serve as MPs in the Parliament. International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) the At the same time, Afghanistan’s civil society is complete leadership and ownership of all military growing more and more vibrant, frequently operations across Afghanistan. The ANSF is now challenging the government and holding it providing protection for the whole Afghan to account. population, while NATO-ISAF has begun its new Ladies and Gentlemen, mission of advising, training, and equipping These and many of our other achievements the ANSF. are naturally a work in progress. To ensure their In spite of the ongoing successes of the ANSF consolidation into sustainable gains, we have against the enemy, our forces are yet to be fully signed a number of Strategic Partnership independently operational. We continue to lack Agreements with our allies in the region and an Air Force and other such critical enablers as beyond. These Agreements build on the objectives artillery, armoured mobility, reconnaissance and of the Istanbul, Bonn, Chicago, and Tokyo intelligence capabilities, close air support conferences on Afghanistan, helping us transition capabilities, airlift and medical evacuation towards self-reliance in the post 2014 period into capabilities, as well as logistics and maintenance a decade of transformation. mechanisms that constitute the backbone of The U.S. and India are two of our major any force. strategic allies, and the Agreements we have To help address these needs, we are going to signed with them provide for their continued sign a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with support to Afghanistan beyond 2014. In an effort the United States. At the same time, we have to work together towards our common objectives provided India with a list of needs to assist to help stabilize and rebuild Afghanistan, our three Afghanistan with. We believe that India can fill countries have established a Trilateral Strategic some of the training and equipping gaps in the
{20} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 Afghan National Security Forces. And the Indian process at the request of the Afghan government. government has responded positively to our The new democratically elected government request for enhanced defense cooperation, based of Pakistan under HE Prime Minister Nawaz on the Afghanistan-India Strategic Partnership Sharif has taken initial, bold steps towards honest Agreement. cooperation with Afghanistan and India. The Parallel to the security transition, the Afghan Afghan people and government welcome with government has striven to ensure the success of great optimism the Prime Minister’s call for a new our political transition through implementation of policy that sees the end of interference in the a legitimate, fair, and transparent presidential Afghan affairs now and beyond 2014. election next year on April 5, 2014. As HE To that end, this past Sunday, HE Sartaj Aziz, President Karzai has said many times, his second Adviser to the Prime Minister on National Security and last term under the Constitution is going to and Foreign Affairs, visited Kabul, and delivered come to an end, and rumours that he would remain an invitation from HE Prime Minister Sharif to in office is baseless. In fact, the President signed HE President Karzai to visit Pakistan. The in two law two critical electoral reforms paving President accepted the invitation “in principle,” the way for the peaceful and democratic transfer but asked that a substantive agenda with specific of power to the next president. objectives on supporting the peace process and At the same time, despite the way the Taliban effectively fighting terrorism be prepared, before office was opened in Doha, Qatar, we remain the visit could take place. committed to ending the war in Afghanistan that HE Foreign Minister Dr. Zalmai Rasool also would result in further strengthening of our met with HE Aziz and expressed our hope to make sovereignty and territorial integrity. That is the considerable progress with Pakistan’s new basic expectation of the Afghan people, the victims government in all areas, including in the fight of more than three decades of war, who continue against terrorism and extremism and the networks to fight and die day after day and year after year and systems supporting them. HE Aziz offered to to ensure the absolute freedom and independence use his country’s influence and contacts with the of our country, nothing less. Taliban, in support of the Afghan-led and Afghan- With that basic fact firmly in mind, the owned peace process. This is a welcome offer of Afghan government and people are cautiously assistance, which Afghanistan had long been seeking a negotiated settlement with the armed seeking. The two sides also emphasized the opposition, including the Taliban. And that means importance of expanding bilateral transit trade, an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan- following a meeting of the Coordinating Authority controlled peace process where only Afghans talk to address issues related to the Afghanistan and to Afghans, with non-Afghans only facilitating the Pakistan Trade and Transit Agreement (APTTA).
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {21} Afghanistan’s number one challenge is they would do so for the reasons, which I would insecurity with external roots, which exploits like to explain briefly. Afghanistan’s numerous vulnerabilities, including The implications of winning are clear: a ethnic diversity, widespread poverty, and weak sovereign Afghanistan at peace internally and at state institutions. The externality of insecurity can peace with others focused on win-win objectives also spoil the peace process in Afghanistan and towards a region where every nation would be impede our progress into a decade of secure and prosper through economic cooperation. transformation beyond 2014. This is the world in which we live today, a world That is why we welcome regional efforts with which is increasingly interdependent and where strong, proactive participation of India to address zero-sum designs have proven a failure and a this shared challenge facing Afghanistan and the disaster. Sincere, results-oriented cooperation is whole region. India should play a leading role in the call of our peoples in the region and beyond. regional processes, as well as reaching a consensus And Afghanistan stands ready to do our part for with Russia and China to work out a regional the good of all. roadmap for stabilization and reconstruction of By contrast, however, the implications of Afghanistan where our sovereignty and territorial losing what is a winnable war for peace and justice integrity are ensured, thereby allowing the three are also clear in Afghanistan. Any short-cut to countries in the region to invest in Afghanistan peace leads to failure. Such half-measure peace and to prevent destructive interference in the initiatives were tried to engage the Taliban in the Afghan affairs. 1990s, with disastrous consequences. Let’s At the same time, we renew our call on the remember that the Taliban of today are the same international community to stay the course in dark forces that brutally terrorized the Afghan Afghanistan. Our gains of the past 12 years should people, systematically destroyed our cultural be consolidated through implementation of win-win heritage sites, enforced a gender-apartheid of objectives, which have been outlined in the Bonn, unspeakable cruelty, and sheltered and aided Al Chicago, and Tokyo Conferences, as well as through Qaeda to plot and execute from the Afghan soil regional initiatives such as the Istanbul Process. the tragedy of 9/11. Morally speaking, any attempt Indeed, winning or losing in Afghanistan to sideline Afghans and undermine their squarely depends on whether our allies and friends democratic gains of the past 12 years would not would actually deliver on the commitments they only destabilize the region but irresponsibly have made in these conferences and their routine endanger international peace and security again. interactions with the Afghan government. We hope Thank you.
{22} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 FOCUS
How an Emerging Taliban Crescent Impacts Moderate and Democratic Afghanistan *Senge H. Sering
ilgit-Baltistan’s geostrategic importance is Prominent elected members of the Gilgit- gaining prominence for anti-Afghan and Baltistan Legislative Assembly like Wazir Beg Ganti-American forces as the US prepares for (June 24th Daily K2), Mirza Hussain and withdrawal from Afghanistan. This little known Mohammad Ayub Shah have repeatedly warned region situated in the western Himalayan that Taliban are present in Gilgit-Baltistan in large Mountains and contested by both India and numbers; and that the mountain passes of Gilgit- Pakistan is poised to emerge as linchpin in what I Baltistan leading to northern Afghanistan have call ‘the Taliban crescent’; an area of extremists’ become point of infiltration; and further, that local control and influence, which will stretch from extremists are assisting the Taliban and helping Afghanistan to the west, northern Pakistan, and them consolidate power and resources. Print media reach into Indian Kashmir to the east. as well as various Pakistani TV channels (Dunya The region is valuable for the Afghan Taliban, June 24) also state that militant camps are whose alliance with Kashmiri militant groups is a operational in districts of Gilgit-Baltistan (Capital harbinger of future Jihadist efforts in that area. Talk GEO), in the vicinity of the Afghan border. As Gilgit-Baltistan is situated right between the A few months ago, police arrested fourteen Afghan two, it will grow in strategic importance to this militants during a raid on a Madrassa located in effort. The rugged mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan Gilgit and run by Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, which are well situated for staging forays for militant according to the Ministry of Interior, has become groups like Harkatul-Mujahideen which is keenly the lead face of Al-Qaida in Pakistan. interested in increasing their influence in the The author is the President of Institute for Central Asian Republics and northern Gilgit Baltistan Studies Afghanistan. It is worth-noting that members of The Pakistani military’s complicity in this the Pakistan Defence Council, a coalition of Jihadi campaign cannot be ruled out. As the Abbottabad outfits, religious parties and retired military Commission suggests, the military continues to officials, have called Gilgit-Baltistan the missing view extremists as an asset. Again, it is significant link between Kashmir and Afghanistan. when local elected leaders affiliated with the
*The author is the President of Institute for Gilgit Baltistan Studies, Washington DC, USA
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {23} Peoples Party and Muslim League as well as Terrorism and extremism will only be elimi- religious scholars such as Qazi Nisar and Agha nated if the regimes providing financial support Rahat accuses the Pakistani secret agencies of and sanctuary are held accountable. Pakistan’s aiding militant forces. Local reports frequently policy to support terrorists who seek to destabilize note the passage of Pakistani Secret Service Afghanistan must be reversed. vehicles transporting militants into Afghanistan Further, the US must realize that a policy of via Gilgit-Baltistan. According to Ex-Inspector appeasement will not halt the growing General of the Police of Gilgit-Baltistan Sarmad radicalization in the region. By lending credence Saeed Khan (June 24, 2013), the federal to and negotiating with the Taliban, the US is in government denied him permission to conduct danger of legitimizing militants and Pakistan’s security operation against Taliban in Gilgit- influence in Afghanistan. This will ensure that Baltistan. the Taliban crescent will be firmly established and Pakistan’s tactical use of militants to enhance capable of further expansion. strategic influence in Afghanistan has created a However, it is not just the terrorists who are perpetual state of chaos in the region. In the gaining control in Gilgit-Baltistan as a means to coming years, the ideology of Jihad will be influence Afghanistan. The Pakistani employed once again, creating large scale establishment has also allowed China to station destabilizing movement of militants across the troops as well as build roads and rail links through Taliban crescent. Militant control over Gilgit- Gilgit-Baltistan to further its influence into Baltistan will give Pakistan tactical advantage to Afghanistan. It is happening at a time when US help coordination between different non-state relations with Islamabad have deteriorated and a actors and the military. Kamran Shafi, a known strategic vacuum is developing in Afghanistan due defense analyst substantiates this fear and states to NATO withdrawal. What is most alarming is that the time is not far when the Taliban in that both China and the militants have strained Afghanistan and Pakistan will unite with other relationship with India as well as expansionist radical groups and convert the region into a war designs on Afghanistan. Chinese leadership is zone (April 5, 11). The sudden surge of Taliban in courting extremist Pakistani organizations such as the districts of Gilgit-Baltistan on the Afghan Jamat-e-Islami and promoting the interests of border is a real and grave concern for a democratic Lashkar-e-Toaiba while their military personnel Afghanistan. Taliban consider a moderate are making unofficial visits to the Tribal regions Afghanistan a threat to their existence and instead of Pakistan (Oct. 12) where Taliban are stationed demand the introduction of Sharia law and the near the Afghan border. The nexus of this mutual rejection of the Afghan constitution. interest can potentially mean a coordinated
{24} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 effort between the Pakistan’s allies to control isolation, economic vulnerability and the growth Afghanistan. of extremism and authoritarianism. The only China’s reliance on Gilgit-Baltistan to tenable solution is to help transform Gilgit- influence Afghanistan is well known. Until 2003, Baltistan from the linchpin of terror to a hub of China used the Karakoram Highway of Gilgit- international trade, commerce and prosperity Baltistan to export military hardware to the Taliban where all stakeholders have an incentive to government. Currently, China is planning to spend maintain free movement between South and over eighteen billion dollars in the construction Central Asia. of tunnels in Gilgit-Baltistan to enhance access to Such a policy will improve coordination Afghanistan and Balochistan. Jennifer Dyer in her between the people of Afghanistan and Gilgit- article China, Gilgit-Baltistan (Memorize it Now), Baltistan as US allies in fighting terrorist and the Balance of Power in Asia (March 5, 11) networks. It will establish a wedge in the Taliban writes that the road and rail plans will place China crescent and contain militant efforts to consolidate in a position to bypass and out-flank both rivals, power in northern Afghanistan. Further, it will India and Russia, and bisect “Asia with a Chinese- create a counterbalance to China’s ambitions built, Chinese-controlled transport corridor”. In which are bound to destabilize regional security summary, China is using Gilgit-Baltistan as a and curtail democracy. wedge to negate political and economic influence Today Afghanistan stands at a cross road. of its opponents and to advance strategic and Post 2014, the policies of Afghanistan’s neighbors political interests in the region. Authoritarian will determine whether the country will emerge China’s complete control over this corridor, as a voice of moderation or regress back to the leading to an upper hand in Afghanistan should Taliban era. The destiny and stability of be a concern for US policy makers who are Afghanistan is essentially tied to what happens in interested in a democratic and free Afghanistan. Pakistan. Pakistanis are still celebrating a change Not long ago, Gilgit-Baltistan was considered of civilian government in Islamabad which has the hub of international trade, connecting promised to improve relations with India and Afghanistan and Central Asia to India and beyond. Afghanistan. Yet, Pakistan’s history suggests that Free movement and commerce created a culture the will of the people is often subsumed by military of co-existence and tolerance. Today, we have a and intelligence goals. For a democratic and stable choice to carry forward that tradition or to allow Afghanistan to come into existence, Pakistan’s a darker scenario to emerge with global security military will have to respect Afghanistan as a implications. Ignoring Gilgit-Baltistan’s strategic sovereign nation and halt efforts to unduly value puts the entire region on brink for political influence its shaping. Pakistan needs to stop
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {25} attempts of defining who Afghanistan’s allies and Pakistan from aiding region’s terrorist networks. opponents should be. At the same time, the people Further, US forces must identify and collaborate of Afghanistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan with local communities especially the indigenous will have to unite in their struggle for social peoples of Gilgit-Baltistan and Northern tolerance, economic liberalization, linguistic and Afghanistan who are fighting terrorism. Lastly, cultural diversity, plural democracy, and peaceful by expanding trade activity in Gilgit-Baltistan by co-existence. reviving the Silk Route, the US will ensure that US policymakers can support this shift by the economic potential is fully realized, which is declaring Pakistan a Country of Particular Concern the surest course to peace and stability for and using all measures of diplomacy to deter Afghanistan and the region.
{26} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 OP-ED
Falling Rupee – The True Reasons *Shaurya Doval
hould India be concerned about the falling adversely affects all sections of society. rupee or, trusting the Finance Minister that The government also emerges as the net loser Sthere was nothing to worry about it? A weak with the political leadership losing their credibility currency is the sign of a weak economy, and a and control over the economic variables. Every weak economy leads to a weak nation said Ross fall in one unit of the rupee siphons thousands of Perot, a leading US business tycoon and two times crores out of the country to meet external interest presidential candidate. The free falling rupee, repayment obligations. The capital that could have fastest ever in 66 years of its independence and otherwise built hospitals, fed the poor, generated highest among the Asian countries, is symptomatic employment or created infrastructure gets drained of decline in its national power and that must out purely as capital on capital. In a country, like concern all Indians. For a common man, too, it ours where paucity of capital means foregone means a rise in prices, falling employment and opportunities for our people, this drain retards our bleaker future. national journey to prosperity. When we add to Economists estimate that for every 10% fall this the additional burden a falling rupee puts on in the rupee, prices get pushed up by 1-2%. For a the national GDP in terms of imports, foreign common man the pinch is more than 2% as it leads outward remittances and other external payments, to a disproportionate rise in prices of essential food the drain is colossal. No nation can afford such items, fuel and other essentials which are non- excesses, least of all a poor nation like ours, where discretionary in nature. A country where more than the opportunity cost of capital for every matrix of 40 crore people live below the poverty line this human existence is very high. India imports nearly means a steep fall from their bare subsistence level seventy percent of its defence requirements from of existence. overseas and a falling rupee substantially pegs up It no less hurts the bourgeoning middle class, the cost of guarding the nation. Often forcible the potential driver of India’s economic success cuts are made adversely affecting our defence story, whose progress is stalled and opportunities preparedness. squeezed. Career prospects, travel, overseas Gross capital formation that leads to higher education and healthcare also become increasingly investment, accelerated industrial and agricultural un-affordable. The falling rupee ultimately growth, investment in infrastructure and human
* The author is Director of India Foundation, New Delhi
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {27} resource development lies at the root of economic stability, developed regulation etc. Yet the speed growth. For a country to get out of the poverty and the intensity of fall in it’s currency in the last trap it has to increase its investible surplus and three years has been unprecedented. As the chart add to its assets. Accretion in assets is directly below demonstrates the rupee has in absolute proportionate to rate of economic growth and terms fallen by 38% in the last 3 years and the savings. Falling rupee, as the subsequent pages slide continues uninterrupted. will explain, erodes both growth and savings at This fall of the rupee and the low levels compounded rates. Preventing and arresting the breached are now here to stay. Why did this all fall of the rupee thus becomes vital. Any argument, happen? What does it mean. A 15 rupee drop in to the contrary, no matter the justification, is the last 3 years means that merely the interest cost delusionary and can never be a panacea in the long to the nation has increased by Rs 27,000 crores run. No wonder, there were few takers in informed annually, leave aside its implications on imports, circles of Finance Minister’s underplaying the fall external debt and other variables. This is a in rupee. reduction of what could have been the additional In recent time the falling rupee has assumed gross capital formation. This capital could have alarming proportions. While the Indian economy given the nation 4000MW of power, 3 additional has slowed down and there has been a stalling of ports, 3,000 kms of highways and a whole host of reforms but Indian growth has not collapsed by other social spending opportunities. Now this any measure. India still continues to be the second capital is lost forever and the nation is not better fastest growing economy in the world. It also has off in any way. Further, at even a 10% return this some very fundamental strengths like a large and capital could have generated Rs 2,700 crores of growing middle class, services growth, political additional income annually if productively deployed. INR/USD
{28} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 The political discourse seems to be trying to willful negligence or of capacity deficit to execute explain to the nation that this is a short term its policies. phenomenon that with some policy tinkering will At other times we are told that the fall of the correct itself soon and the rupee will return to its rupee has to do with factors that are external and earlier levels. If this was indeed the case than this beyond domestic control. Nothing could be farther merits a simple question: why has this not been from the truth and nothing illustrates this better done? The rupee has been consistently falling for than a simple look at the performance of some last three years and if it was so easy to reverse the comparable currencies during the corresponding trend than the government is either guilty of period:
Appreciation / Depreciation
* 2-year % change, from Aug 1, 2011 till Aug 2, 2013 (Source: Oanda.Com, Historical Exchange rates)
The data makes it obvious that the fall in the Congress’ economic committee, Ben Bernanke Indian rupee has been the worst among all hinted that the Fed’s largesse – it had been emerging market currencies during this period. pumping in US$ 85 billion every month at near- Even bankrupt nations like Pakistan have zero interest rates – could be re-evaluated. What performed better during this period. Some of the this meant was that four- year- long easy capital BRIC countries like Russia and Indonesia, which policy intended to create jobs in the US, could have greater dollar dependence than India have soon end. By the time Mr. Bernanke mentioned also done a better job in managing their currency the possibility of a roll-back second time in June value. The Chinese Yuan has actually strengthened 2013, international investors were already winding against the dollar. down their interests abroad. Foreign Institutional A lot of noise has been made holding the US outflows from India in June-2013 hit a record high monetary contraction responsible for the falling of US$7.53 billion. However, as the above chart rupee. In late May-2013, addressing the US shows that by May 2013 the rupee was already at
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {29} 57 to a dollar a 26% fall over the previous year. and the government could not borrow capital from The alibi comes unstuck and is a poor attempt to abroad or from the private corporate sector. This distort the facts. However, what the further 10% along with cutting of foreign aid resulted in the fall in the rupee since the announcement does is second devaluation of the rupee. that it only additionally proves the relative The rupee then was quite stable for a 15 year unattractiveness of rupee vis a vis the dollar. Why period when in 1985 the Rajiv Gandhi is the currency of a fast growing nation with strong Government devalued the rupee by 40% in economic and social fundamentals so unattractive? nominal terms to INR 12/US$. The depreciation Before we get into the reasons for the fall of had been necessitated by the political uncertainty the rupee it may be worthwhile to quickly put the that gripped the government and the continuing history of the sliding rupee in perspective. The high inflation of the 70s’ which could no longer rupee has seen a structural decline in its value since be managed by domestic policies. The next big independence. This decline each time to a new decline came in July 1991 when the rupee was level has either been triggered by an external or devalued by over 20% in a determined effort to internal event. In between these events the rupee change the course of Indian economic policy has been silently drifting downwards without it towards one of an outward-orientation. In 1993, registering an economic alarm. the then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh let When India achieved independence there the rupee to float freely. This linked the rupee to were no external borrowings on India’s balance external markets as was visible in 1997 when the sheet and the rupee and dollar were at par. In 1951 Asian financial crisis led the rupee to fall from at the onset of the First Five year plan the rupee INR 35/US$ to INR 39/US$ as investors exited was devalued by the government to raise the Asian markets. capital to finance the First Five Year Plan. The Since 1997 the rupee had been fairly stable second devaluation came in 1966 when the depreciating by about 15% over a 15 year period Government devalued the rupee by 57.5% to INR until Sept 2011. Positive macro-economic 7.50/US$. environment and growth in the past few years have From 1950, India had run continued trade been deceptive in that they have hidden the deficits that increased in magnitude in the 1960s fundamental weakness of the Indian currency.
INR/USD
{30} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 Reasons behind the fall of the Rupee: However, imports have been growing unabated, led by crude oil and gold. Gold imports Problem of Deficits have been rising as there has been negative real The first and foremost problem is that India interest rates in the country on account of high has a large trade deficit and this deficit is ever inflation. At the same time oil imports have also growing. In simple terms India imports more than been rising faster than expected due to unviable it exports. This means that as a result more capital subsidies in place which do not allow the leaves India than comes to India. This creates the consumers to experience the true cost of the first level of pressure on the currency. commodity. This has led to distorted patterns in Export growth has been contracting with a our oil consumption and created inelasticity in it’s slowdown biting the economies of trade partners import. Political reasons delay the correct course and also because Indian economy struggles to of action and the rationalization of subsidies export more. The tremendous bottlenecks in Indian becomes more and more difficult with passage of infrastructure prohibit India from exporting more time. One rupee depreciation increases the losses and there has been no reflexive benefit of weaker on selling fuel below cost by Rs 8,000crore in a currency in boosting higher exports. Lack of policy support, high red tape and lack of ease of doing year. This increases the trade deficit and assuming business means India is not an export center. the government shares half, the fiscal deficit by 0.4%.
Trade Deficit as % of GDP
Source: Economic Survey of India 2012, Statistics Handbook
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {31} Trade deficit as a percentage of GDP was Crude import is inelastic, and will go up as a falling 10.1% in 2012-1 and has widened to its second rupee makes oil imports costlier despite the highest ever level in May this year. Trade deficit international stability of the Brent crude. So the as a percentage of exports has also been widening deficit problem continues. The source continuously increasing and is at a 27 year high at becomes the symptom and symptom worsens the 68.7% in 2013. Taken together, they expose the source and the vicious cycle continues. unproductiveness of our gold and oil imports. Linked to the trade deficit is the problem of What this means is that while imports increase our the rising current account deficit (‘CAD’) and the deficit they are not necessarily increasing our GDP balance of payment problem. CAD is a wider term in the same proportion. as it not only includes the import and export but This problem is structural and becoming also includes all other transfers in and out of the worse by the day. For e.g. with recent depreciation country. It is defined as the difference between in rupee, the trade deficit may worsen further in the imports of goods, services over the country’s FY14. India has already recorded gold imports of total export of goods, services and transfers. This about 300 million tonnes in first two months of CAD has also seen a rising trend as is clear from FY14 against 846 million tonnes in whole of FY13. the table below.
Source: ICICI Securities Ltd
{32} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 The CAD for FY13 stood at $ 87.8 billion, last few years by borrowing externally. The world 4.8% of GDP. This is an increase of over 300 per borrowed capital when they believed India was a cent in the last three years. The rising CAD puts a good investment destination. But like all investors strong pressure on the currency as India needs to when they lose confidence in India they will seek sell more of its currency to purchase US dollars. it back. This is a structural problem with the Indian At the same time a depreciating rupee also increase foreign reserves which India should be worried the CAD through the rising trade deficit. about but often is forgotten as the fine print. These Economists estimate that a 2% depreciation of reserves could be wiped out pretty quickly if the rupee adds 20 basis points (bps) to the CAD as a rupee continues to depreciate. Hence the so called percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP). So foreign exchange reserves are not really reserves the vicious cycle of currency impact which plagues in a true sense but actually foreign exchange the trade deficit also extends to the larger CAD. liabilities. India has been able to address the deficit in This is exactly what is happening these days. the CAD in the past by robust inflows in capital At the moment, the foreigners are starting to leave account in form of FII, FDI and external India with their capital in light of slowing growth. borrowings. Here lies the second problem - India Since 2008, RBI has sold about $60 billion in the finances the problems of its consumption by taking market to support the rupee, bringing down the external capital; that is like a house whose forex reserve to $287.9 billion, enough to cover expenses exceed its income. Financing the gap imports for about six months - dangerously low, through borrowings or external capital, in say economists. It has not become a run yet but whatever form, can give some relief but hardly could become soon even if there was no solves the problem. What if they ask their capital fundamental change but a mere sentiment shift back? Then India needs to find the capital to pay away from India. We have already started to see it back. Where will that capital come from! This outflow in FII investments in debt instruments. If is often forgotten in the euphoria of balanced the risk off sentiment persists, we could witness books and sometimes the often touted large higher FII outflows from both debt and equity foreign currency reserves. markets. Hence, unlike last fiscal, capital inflows The $290 Bn foreign reserves that India has may not be able to cover India’s CAD. What will are not really India’s earned reserves through happen to the currency then? selling more to the world like China’s. India has always been a trade deficit nation for most of its Policy Problems independent history. So the only way it could have If this deficit problem was not bad enough, built capital was to take external capital in UPA II has added to the economic problems by whatever form. Debt is always easier than equity total abdication of governance. There is total and that is exactly what India has done over the policy paralysis in the Government machinery and
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {33} a total lack of policy initiatives and execution. corporate India. There is total lack of investor Little progress has been achieved. The government confidence in India and its ability to foster and is seen as struggling between one scandal after sustain consistent growth. This may have serious the other as it fights for a survival on a day to day implications for FDI/FII and foreign exchange basis. Despite the noises and assurances to the reserves in future and hence may depreciate the contrary this confusion has now been going on rupee further from its current levels. It may also for much of the last four years. In today’s global lead to investor confidence issues in India and lead economic cycles four years is a long time and it is them to start withdrawing their capital which also unlikely that the world will be waiting on India. will have further downward implications on the Whatever be the reasons, the failure of rupee. India can ill afford to let its growth falter. governance has been the hallmark of this current Unfortunately, that is what has precisely happened regime resulting in stalled/shelving of projects by under the UPA regime. FII Flows: Last 12 months (US$ Bn.)
Source: SEBI, Foreign Investment in India Statistics
The above chart illustrates the FII flow in few quarters. Business no longer wants to increase India has started to decrease thereby its capex spend given regulatory uncertainty and demonstrating the loss of investor confidence in that is demonstrated in either flat or decreasing India. One common refrain is that investors do capex spends. Our own businesses are also losing not think India is a business friendly place and confidence in the ability of the country to keep its thereby there is decreasing desire to do business. growth momentum. This does not speak well of This is also evident from the below mentioned the government effort to keep India’s growth rate chart on the gross capital formation in the last at globally attractive levels.
{34} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 Capital Spending (Gross Fixed Capital Formation in US$ Bn.)
Source: Trading economics Statistics, RBI Indian Statistics Handbook
Slowing growth has serious implications on capital inflows are typically at risk when the local the rupee. First and foremost, a slow growth will currency weakens. Already, portfolio flows into alter the country’s credit ratings. India is already both debt and equity have been gradually tapering, at risk of a downgrade from its marginal with investors subscribing to the view that the local investment grade (BBB-) rating. This falling credit currency could depreciate further. The average profile reduces the investor risk for India thereby daily net FII inflows into equities tumbled to reducing investor attractiveness and also raises the $27.22 million in June compared with $171.4 cost of borrowing both domestically and million in May, according to data from the market internationally. This in turn slows growth which regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India. further fuels the eventual downward slide of the The situation worsens in debt with FIIs pulling rupee. out $259.7 million in each session in June For a country dependent on imports for many compared with a $23.6 million average daily raw materials, a weaker rupee impacts the profits inflows the previous month. The yield differential, of companies at a time when they are already between Indian 10-year government bonds and US stressed. Corporate profitability is affected treasury yields of the same maturity, has fallen by negatively as the input cost increase for companies 1 percentage point since the beginning of this year. importing raw materials. This further slows Slowing growth has bad news written all over growth and also accelerates the depreciation of it for the rupee. The government cannot let the the rupee. growth falter at any cost as the impact on the rupee The rupee’s weakness may make foreign will be disproportionate. This is exactly what has investors think twice before investing. Foreign happened in the last few years and there is little to
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {35} demonstrate that the downward slide has other hand, in a high import dependent economy, been arrested. depreciation in rupee accelerates imported inflation in commodities like crude, metals, some Inflation over growth edible oils and certain chemicals (combined Unfortunately problems don’t end here. There weight of ~25% in the main index) of which India is another related issue which deeply cuts into the is a major importer. Unless India solves its energy stability of the rupee. This is the nature of the dependence this will not go away and will always relationship between imports, inflation and the rupee. keep the rupee linked to the volatility of global Inflation is a key driver of the rupee commodities. A 1% depreciation in rupee, on depreciation. It is both a cause and effect of the an average adds ~20-25bps to the headline WPI rupee depreciating. On one hand the rising inflation. Therefore WPI is likely to inch closer inflation in the country forces the domestic to 6% from 4.89% due to ~8% YTD depreciation currency to lose value against the dollar. On the in rupee.
Source: ICICI Securities Ltd
The falling rupee elevates inflationary of the interest rate arbitrage (between Indian expectations thereby forcing RBI to continue with government bonds and US Treasury yields) its anti- inflationary stance through a high interest becoming less attractive, thus compromising the rate regime as India is currently witnessing. Also, possibility of further capital flows. depreciation in rupee further aggravates concerns All these measures to control inflation, while over CAD. This forces the RBI to keep deferring balancing the rupee, reduce liquidity and have a interest rate cuts and continue with a high interest direct bearing on economic growth. As a natural regime. Further, if RBI cuts rates, it runs the risk consequence, there is crowding out of private
{36} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 capital and slower growth. With inflation as a key Bank’s ability to play with the currency unless driver of electoral fortunes, controlling inflation solid economic fundamentals provide the required becomes the sole focus of the government thereby currency support. repeatedly sacrificing growth at it’s alter. This while gives momentary relief, builds in larger The Debt Trap structural problems like deficits and external debt Finally, India also has a debt problem. At US$ which impair the rupee in a more serious way in 390 billion, the country’s current external debt is the long run. far from comforting. This is the capital owed by This balancing act also often forces RBI to Indians (Government, Companies and Individuals) engage in currency intervention, which in itself to entities abroad which also has a bearing on the involves absorption of rupee, thereby creating rupee. This debt has been rising due to trade credit further liquidity tightness. However, this is not taken by importers and by Indian companies sustainable. The Central Bank has neither the borrowing overseas. According to government intention nor the wherewithal to intervene in the statistics, out of India’s outstanding external debt, foreign exchange market. India just does not have about 23% or $85.3 billion comprises external enough foreign exchange reserves to sell in the commercial borrowings, or ECBs. Further, the market to support the rupee and thus intervention share of short term debt has also risen to 44.2% is meaningless. This thereby reduces the Central of total debt.
Source: RBI, Financial Stability Report – Issue No. 7
Linked to this is also the interest burden as the amount of debt will increase in rupee terms. increase on foreign currency denominated debt. As these loans mature, the cash repayment will For companies that have availed of foreign also be disproportionately impacted. currency loans for implementation of projects, the Unless India pays down this debt with it’s rupee depreciation will stretch their balance sheets, earnings it will be forced to finance one debt with
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {37} the other debt. Unfortunately, that is what has been Fixed income outflows were particularly happening. That only defers the problem to another debilitating for the rupee and exacerbated the day. The high external debt not only increases the rupee negative impact of weak funding conditions payment obligations but further puts a downward for India’s current account deficit. The external pressure on the rupee as it increases the local accounts are certain to remain the key constraint currency required to meet these obligations. As to the RBI going forward, as further domestic the rupee depreciates this pressure gets liquidity tightening cannot be ruled out to support compounded forcing the country to borrow more the rupee. USD INR could touch as low as 70.00 and at the same time increasing its obligations not by year-end. just in absolute terms but also in relative terms because of a falling currency. This is a classic debt What can be done: trap of which many nations have been victims to Unfortunately there are no-short term the point of bankruptcy. India is not close to such solutions. India has a structural problem and it will a point but its currency remains vulnerable to the have to bite the bullet. Sooner or later the pain shocks linked with high external debt burden. will be unavoidable but it is better that the pain be taken now and the problem sorted forever. Future Outlook of INR The key is to have a long term strategy to We live in a world of relative opportunities. increase our “net-exports” and to rebuild the The United States is back at the center of global country’s balance sheet “brick by brick” to get to a investors’ radar screens. US equity securities situation where we have foreign exchange balance remain in ascendancy accompanied by increasing that is truly a “reserve” in nature. Short-term long-term interest rates as the process of global measures, such as imposing a higher duty on “non risk re-pricing and asset (re)allocation away from essential goods” and gold, are unlikely to take us emerging-market assets runs its course. The very far. Raising investment limits for foreign emerging market asset class remains in vulnerable direct investment in some sectors will neither territory influenced by the triple adverse effect of reverse the direction of the rupee in the currency decelerating endogenous economic growth, market, nor will it help revive growth in a declining equity securities valuations and expected conclusive way. We have reached a stage where shifts in US monetary policy direction implied by structural reforms are needed to regain the lost forward guidance rhetoric. momentum. The RBI has been forced to tighten liquidity These are a few things that can be done to conditions and halt its monetary easing efforts as build intrinsic worth in the Rupee. The the need to stabilize the rupee has taken priority. government should seriously consider taking some
{38} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 of the following steps: account. This will go a long way in strengthening 1. Identify on an all India basis goods/ the rupee. services that can exported from the country The other priority is to bring back growth in where India can quickly build global the economy on a real time basis. This can only competitiveness in cost, scale and quality. be done by improving the business environment 2. Incentivise the production of such goods of the country. Kick starting the infrastructure and services by providing fiscal and tax build should be the foremost priority as it is the incentives. single largest bottleneck to growth. The Indian 3. Go for massive build outs of world class corporates should also be encouraged to spend SEZs and solve the infrastructure more via incentives and supportive business bottlenecks through large interventions policies. Government support is must for creation that provide enabling environment to the of an investment friendly environment that in turn manufacturing sector. As a labour is vital to kick-start growth. Capital has an option abundant nation, India does not produce of going to over 180 countries around the world. labour intensive goods at sufficiently large In the “Ease of Doing Business Ranking” by the scale. International Finance Corp., India ranks 132 out 5. Concerted efforts to increase the share of of 185 countries. Put differently, 131 countries agriculture as a % of GDP. Solve for the offer better business conditions than India. In supply side bottlenecks, quality, access to enforcing contracts, the very basis of a market markets, marketing and credit problems economy, India’s rank is 184 out of 185 countries. that plague the sector. This will be very Both starting and liquidating a business is important to tackle supply side problems extremely difficult in India; 172 countries offer and control inflation. better conditions for starting a business. Clearly, 6. Import substitution for crude oil. India will these rankings will not inspire national or have to find replacement for crude oil as international investors to invest in India. our primary fuel. Alternate technologies Therefore, a coordinated effort between business, and solutions need to be developed on a banks and the government is required. The “status war footing. This is possible, if a nation is quo bias” has done enormous damage. Can this determined and focused, as the US has opportunity be used to remove hurdles and create recently demonstrated. an environment for large-scale investments, These steps will not only help the Indian especially in the manufacturing sector? economy to improve on output and growth but, Finally, inflationary expectations have to be overtime, will also help maintain a stable external brought down by a more restrained fiscal spend
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {39} and consolidation. This will boost the real the story of the falling rupee. India has and must exchange rate competitiveness in the economy. cut its deficit with a vengeance. As long as it relies This will give more leeway to the policy planners on FII and FDIs to solve its financing problems to control inflation without necessarily having to the rupee will be susceptible to this falling trend. forsake growth. Political consensus should be India must go after improving its exports and generated and if tough decisions are indeed the cutting its imports drastically. only option forward than the entire nation should That way it will ensure that our balance of be taken into confidence in order to share the trade keeps the balance of payments always in the burden. Playing politics on such a matter each surplus territory. When only that happens will the time should now finally stop! rupee not only achieve fundamental stability but India needs sustained and consistent policy will truly acquire a global standing and be treated intervention to get its rupee back in business. The as a gold standard. It is then when it will be a malaise of the trade deficit is the real culprit behind truly national asset.
{40} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 OP-ED
Beyond Sri Lanka’s Big Brother Syndrome *Vivek Katju
midst the entire range of complexities that particular, have always been critical of the 13th mark the situation in Sri Lanka one fact Amendment devolution process which created the Aremains incontestable: President Mahinda provincial councils and gave the provinces Rajapaksa and his three brothers — Defence meaningful powers including over land and the Secretary Gotabhaya, Basil, who controls politics police. The legislation they wish to promote now and economic policies, and the soft-spoken would effectively take away these powers. They Speaker of the Parliament, Chamal — are the also desire that in future, constitutional changes arbiters of their country’s destiny. The institutions regarding provincial powers could be of democracy as provided for within Sri Lanka’s accomplished by Colombo with a simple majority democratic constitution operate but neither the of provinces siding with it. This would lead to parliamentary opposition nor voices of dissent Colombo retaining in its hands the authority over within the ruling alliance have the strength to put subjects that are connected with the state security a brake on the objectives that the Rajapaksa apparatus and, indirectly, demography. brothers, especially the President, have set for President Rajapaksa would like to get these themselves and, by extension, for their country. changes through before the Northern Council It is clear from the policies the Rajapaksa elections which he has announced would be held brothers have pursued since the defeat of the LTTE in September. It is pertinent that he wishes to hold in May 2009 that their principal objective has been the elections prior to the Commonwealth Heads to prevent forever the emergence of a similar of Government Meeting in November. For the time organisation. Now, the surest way to ensure that being, the proposed changes are being resisted by objective would be to take steps to erode, if not some ruling alliance partners. eliminate, separatist sentiment among the Tamil community. And the first measure in this direction Reconstruction would be to implement the 13th Amendment and A recent visit to Colombo and Jaffna enabled the recommendations of the Lessons Learnt and this writer to hear a range of voices and also see Reconciliation Commission (LLRC) report, the reconstruction activities that have been especially with regard to incidents of excessive undertaken by the Sri Lankan authorities in the or malicious use of force against civilians in the latter city and area. The resettlement work and last few months of the anti-LTTE operations. the reconstruction of physical infrastructure in the However, President Rajapaksa and Gotabhaya in four years that have passed since the LTTE’s
* The author is a retd. diplomat and was a member of India Foundation delegation to Sri Lanka in May 2013
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {41} defeat have been good. While there is a civilian justice, democracy and development. On their part, administration in place, the Governor is a retired minorities must shun violent approaches and army officer and this is a ground for complaint. It understand the concerns of the majority is true that Colombo would have had little option communities. Historical memory, ancient but to rely on the army in the immediate aftermath grievances and the dubious lessons of battles lost of the conflict for resettlement and development and won in centuries past cannot guide leaders, work. However, popular sentiment would now be particularly those who control the destinies of addressed by reducing the army’s salience. The peoples and countries in this digital age. acquisition of land for the expansion of defence facilities is a major ground for complaint. 13th Amendment One of the most contentious issues relates to The 13th Amendment is the cornerstone of the size of the defence force to be stationed in the the position of the overwhelming majority of the Northern Province. Almost all sections of Tamil Tamil political class. It has already been diluted opinion are convinced that if the defence forces by the decision of the Court regarding the are placed in large numbers in extensive military inadmissibility of the merger of the Northern and facilities, their sole objective would be to coerce the Eastern provinces. Any further weakening of the Tamil population. The basis of this belief is the Amendment is unacceptable to them. The that the threat of violent separatism has Indian position too is to support the disappeared with the defeat of the LTTE. The implementation of the Amendment. Recently, the Rajapaksa view, endorsed by many Sinhalese, is Union Minister for External Affairs, Salman that this is not so. It strongly holds that the Khurshid, urged his Sri Lankan counterpart that ambition of a separate Tamil state is widespread, elections for the Northern Provincial Council need especially in the influential Tamil diaspora. The to be held within the time frame announced by diaspora is currently focused more on putting President Rajapaksa and under the present pressure on Colombo on human rights issues. provisions of the Constitution. While India is However, in future it can promote violent activities firmly committed to the territorial integrity of Sri and an empowered province in the north may Lanka, the entire country shares the concern provide them with a base. expressed in Tamil Nadu for the rights and welfare There is no easy resolution of these two of Sri Lanka’s Tamil community. Will President fundamentally contradictory visions. In the 21st Rajapaksa take these views into account and if he century, terrorist violence is an issue but the does not, what can and will India do? The security of plural and multi-ethnic states is best communication channels which have worked guaranteed in satisfactorily addressing the successfully to diffuse situations in the past now reasonable aspirations of ethnic and religious need to operate urgently. minorities including their quest for identity, (Courtesy - ‘The Hindu’, July 3,2013)
{42} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 OP-ED
Buddhist Economics of Compassion and Communion *S.R. Bhatt
t is universally felt that all is not well with the of welfare contents, sustainability of economic present day thoughts and practices in the sphere resources and spiritual orientation. Iof economics engulfing the entire world in a The motivating factor in presenting this paper severe crisis and therefore this calls for serious is that if we possess something which may prove thinking as to what ails the prevailing states of helpful and useful to world peace, progress and affair and how to rectify the root causes of the plenitude, we should not hesitate in sharing it with problems facing the humankind. In view of the world at large. Rather than being burden to urgency of the situation apparent symptoms are the world or being idle spectator to the universal to be attended and curative measures are to be suffering or feeling shy in sharing cultural heritage adopted. But it is imperative to go to the root with others, we should attempt to partake in causes and undertake preventive and positive cooperative endeavor to resolve the problems of measures This necessitates rethinking about the world and creatively reconsider what our economic principles, policies, planning and ancient culture, civilization and traditions can programs. contribute to the present world for a bright future, This paper has limited concerns and stems as Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru always emphasized. from the disillusionment with the dichotomous, There should be no denial of the fact that the exclusivist and lopsided economic situations that inquisitive mind is looking for a redeeming obtain in the modern world and outlines a brief knowledge. The western economic thought seems sketch of economic system as per the Indian to have reached a point of saturation resulting in Buddhist approach to structure and manage a global economic turmoil. Therefore it calls for economy at the national and global levels. It is a bold initiative for paradigm shift for which some hoped that the classical Indian thought can directions can come from the classical Buddhist possibly offer an effective and more beneficial thought. The Buddhist approach is that of a alternative to the present day individualistic- moderate economy based on ‘Buddhist Middle materialistic-consumerist-profit seeking- Path’ which is sustainable both in production and competitive-exploitative economy which is bereft consumption that are the two aspects of economic
* The author is retired Professor and Head, Department of Philosophy, Delhi University
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {43} planning and development. The Buddhist way is Buddha with rulers of his times contained in the an economy of balanced development, balancing early Buddhist literature supplementing this with different pairs like production and consumption, other classical literature and given a coherent individual and society, nation and universe, shape. Buddhist Economy is based on and can be physical and spiritual, present and future and so derived from the teachings of Lord Buddha in the forth. It is holistic and integral approach to well knownDhammacakkapavattanasutta in economic issues from micro and macro which the ‘Four Noble Truths’ and the ‘Eight- perspectives, which measures development in fold Noble Path’ contained in them are propagated. terms of prosperity, health and happiness of the But in the Pali texts we get sufficient material for present and the future generations in terms of intra- constructing an economic theory. generational and inter-generational justice. It Buddhist Economy is essentially provides for a cosmos-friendly economy in which characterized by love and compassion, instrumental and intrinsic goods are put in a benevolence and altruism, interdependence and symmetrical and balanced harmony. It is an interrelation, mutual openness and reciprocity, economy of compassion and communion, of peace fellowship and participation, plenitude and and non-violence. Full details can be worked out happiness, giving and renouncing, caring and on the basis of the seminal ideas presented here, sharing. The four noble virtues for ideal human as only a blueprint is provided at this juncture for conduct named as Brahmaviharas (global virtues) perusal of concerned and interested scholars. of universal friendship and amity Buddhism is both a view of reality and a way (maitta), universal compassion(karuna), universal of life seeking to realize the summum bonum of responsibility making others happy (mudita) and existence. It has therefore an all comprehensive indifference to narrow self-interest (upeksha) are perspective on all facets of reality and life. Its the guiding principles on which economic thought understanding of economic aspect of our life has and planning and economic behavior of individual something fresh, unique and of great contemporary and society are to be based. It is an integral and relevance and may serve the need for a desirable organic approach which is holistic and non- alternative model at the national and global levels. divisive and takes into its purview well being of It attends to all the four drivers of economic the entire cosmos (lokanukampaya). Morality and development, viz., human resources, natural universal responsibility are the very heart of resources, capital resources and innovative Buddhism and therefore Buddhist economics is technology. Though it has not been presented very dharmic (ethical) being guided by virtuous mind systematically in the classical Buddhist literature, (kusala citta). It can be described as dharma- it can be reconstructed from the discourses of the oriented and dharma-based economy. Its motto
{44} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 is morality first, money thereafter. Morality is not organism. As Hua-yen Buddhism puts it, a policy but a principle of life and existence. There In one is all, in many is one are three facets of dharma; it is sustaining, it is One is identical to all, many is identical regulating and it is instrumental for to one. good. Prajna(wisdom) and Sila(morality) The natural implications of such a view point as karuna (compassion) are the two foundations are non-individualism, non-isolationism, non- on which it rests. Economics like other human selfishness etc. in negative terms and mutual pursuits are only the means and its ultimate goal dependence, collective living and corporate is cosmic well-being and happiness (bahujana functioning in positive language. The model of a hitaya, bahujana sukhaya) leading to realization living organism is best suited to explain this of summum bonum of life (nirvana). position. A living organism is a dynamic totality One of the most significant implications of of multiple organs at once holistic and integral, the Buddhist non-substantiality view centrifugal and centripetal, collective and (Anatmavada) of Reality is that the cosmos, rather individual. Here whole lives for the parts and parts the cosmic process, is a totality of fleeting live for the whole. There is mutuality and occurrences and not of things. It is a highly reciprocity in a natural way, a sort of pre- complex, complicated and intricate but planned established harmony. Every one discharges ones and purposive networking of events and not a duties and obligations without caring for ones mechanistic arrangement of preexistent entities. rights. It is duty-oriented rather than rights- Every worldly existence has a dependent oriented. There is coordination and cooperation origination out of a causal collocation which is generally smooth and if it gets disturbed characterized by mutuality and openness, the result is sickness and ailment and possible interrelatedness and reciprocity. Each one decay. The ideal requirement is maintenance of depending upon ones nature has a specific nature, harmony. Harmony is natural and to be preserved, place, role and function in the cosmic setup as and imbalance is unnatural, to be avoided. This determined in the scheme of the universe. organic approach which is holistic and integral Human existence is not in isolation with the has some elements of ‘panpsychism’. rest of the universe. It is not in the form of just The basic concepts underlying the Buddhist “I’ but also ‘we’. In the economic functioning approach to economics are middle path every one has to contribute according to ones (madhyama marga), right living (samyag ajivaka), ability. The cosmos is a network of relationship collective living (samgha Jivana), of interdependence giving rise to organic interdependence and interrelation of all collective living (samgha jivana) like that of an phenomena (pratitya samutpada), preservation,
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {45} conservation and consolidation of all is counterproductive in the ultimate analysis. Since resources (ksema), enhancement and revitalization every existence is interdependent and interrelated of all existing resources (yoga), non-profiteering Buddhism advocates holistic and integral and non-deprivation of others ensuring intra- understanding of the nature of reality in general generational justice (asteya), safeguarding and and of economic reality in particular. It is feeling preserving the resources for the posterities as of oneness and selfsameness with all. This is the intergenerational justice (aparigraha), meaning of spirituality in Indian context. management of end, means and modalities in a Santideva in Bodhicaryavatara, eighth chapter, planned, purposive and efficacious manner (upaya uses two poignant words paratmasamata (feeling kausala), and self-reliance (purusartha). In his of selfsameness with others) and paratma discourses on economic issues, on agriculture, parivartana (transforming oneself as others, a sort trade, commerce and industry, on business of empathy) for this. This also finds expression in enterprises, on monetary transactions and the like the famous four Brahma viharas of Buddha has expounded these ideas very clearly Maitri (fellowship), Karuna (compassion), Mudita and the Tripitakas(Buddhist sacred literature) are (rejoicing at the happiness of others) and Upeksa replete with them. Sometimes he explains them (indifference to self-interest) referred to earlier. directly, and sometimes through stories Buddhist economy is based on the doctrine and parables. of middle path avoiding the extremes of The non-substantial approach has deep and materialism and idealism, capitalism and tremendous impact in shaping the Buddhist communism, individualism and totalitarianism, economy. Since it advocates egoless-ness it avoids poverty and affluence, self-negation and self- individualism and all its corollaries. No individual indulgence. It ensures consumption without is isolated existence. Every individual depends on consumerism. It accepts profit without the other. There is supportive mutualism. profiteering. Profit is not to be used solely for Individual-centeredness degenerates into narrow personal purposes. It is to be utilized for growth individualism which breeds all sorts of economic and development, for helping the needy and for offences, conflicts and deprivations. It leads to benevolent purposes like education. Buddhist consumerism and profiteering, unlawful practices economy emphasizes social component with the and alienation. Buddhist economy respects ultimate goal of cosmic well-being. As Lord individual and individual freedom, personal Buddha exhorted his disciples, initiative, preferences, choices and actions but also “O Monks! Move around for the well-being calls for universal responsibilities. It believes that of every one, for the happiness of every one, pursuit of individualistic goods at the cost of others showering compassion on the entire world; for the
{46} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 good, for the welfare of divine and human.” oriented economy of the present times based on (Vinaya Pitaka I.23) the culture of ‘having’, of acquisition and In the present day economic mode people are possession, of extravagant consumption and first induced to desire and use things which are excessive indulgence, Buddhism offers an produced or to be produced. This is consumerism. alternative model of the culture of ‘giving’, of In consumerism demand follows production. More sacrifice, of renunciation, of peace, harmony and and more consumption is sought through cooperation, of lawfulness and of respect to inducements of various types so that sales increase environment. It calls for fulfillment of needs but and profit accrues. Whatever is produced must be not to cater to greed. It repudiates competitive sold and consumed and profit generated. As far economy and calls for cooperative economy. The as possible disposable goods should be produced Buddhist economy can therefore offer a new so that they can soon be discarded and newer approach, fresh insights, deeper intuitions and a production may be facilitated. Newer demands are new rationality for a paradigm shift, a shift which created by producing more attractive and enticing is natural as human fulfillment lies only in the goods. This also leads to competition among the alternative set of values. In this shift the focal point producers and sellers. The entire management of of economy is not profit but service, not economic planning, production and distribution exploitation but judicious employment of is geared towards this goal. Those who can help resources. Digganikaya (III.p.168) gives the in doing so are termed as ‘management gurus’. In example of a bee which gathers honey without the Buddhist system the scenario should be just damaging flower and spares honey for the opposite. Human being is not born to consume consumptions by others. This cares for ecological whatever is produced. Production is for human purity and balance, justice and fair play. It is being and human being is not for production. conducive to holistic growth, human and cosmic. Production should be only for meeting the The culture of ‘giving’ is not motivated by demands and as far as possible demands are to be selfish considerations of getting name and fame, curbed and not increased. Since production or power and prestige. Greatness of a person follows demand and since demands should be depends not in amassing wealth or in showing it reduced to minimum, production has to be need- off for charity. It depends on character of based. Any sort of cross materialism is not in benevolence. It is not ego-satisfaction or for keeping with Buddhist view point. Economic seeking return- favors. It is for cosmic well-being enterprise is only to meet the legitimate needs and (bahujanahitaya). It is selfless giving. It is giving necessities, and not to cater to greed. Thus, in for social and cosmic peace, prosperity and contrast to the individualistic-consumerist, profit- plenitude. It is giving with joy and for joy. It is
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {47} sharing of material and spiritual goods. It is an balancing is possible by cultivation economy in which need of everyone is taken care of apramada (vigilant attitude). In following the of but greed of none is catered to. It is not an middle path there should be neither poverty nor economy of extravagance, spendthrift-ness and affluence, neither austerity nor excessive wastefulness. This calls for the role indulgence. Life should be neither stringent nor of wisdomand compassion in economics. In a extravagant. There should be neither misuse of discourse with king Pasenadi in wealth nor enslavement to wealth. One should the Suttanipata Buddha tells him that a person not feel elated when wealth comes nor should one who acquires wealth and does not use it for the be miserable and depressed when wealth departs. wellbeing of himself and others is not This sort of indifference is best suited to mental praiseworthy. peace. The attainment of given end with minimum Buddhism recognizes importance of wealth means is upayakausala (skillful employment of for happy and contended worldly life. In Buddhist means). It is a symbiosis of end, means and economy wealth is a means and not an end. The modalities. It is maximum output with minimum means must be pure and conducive to end which input, maximum realization with minimum also has to be pure. This is samyak ajivaka. The possession and consumption. Buddhism recons end is not hedonistic pleasure but moral and with ‘will to exist’, and ‘to exist in a moderately spiritual uplift. Wealth is neither an evil nor it is a good way’ ensuring quality of life. Buddhist final end. It is to be acquired in a dharmic (pious economy cares for quality of life and good and righteous) way, with legitimate limits and standard of living but this is to be measured restraints. This is known as utthanasampada. In qualitatively and not quantitatively. Moreover, the Andhasutta of Anguttaranikaya Buddha says Buddhist economy is economy of non-violence, that a person who is poverty stricken is like a blind. non-violence to ones own self, non-violence to One who tries to acquire wealth but does not care others and to the total cosmos. For Buddhist way about the righteousness of means of acquisition of life economic behavior is purposeful in is like one-eyed person. The two-eye person is one gathering tangible wealth for balanced material who distinguishes between good and bad. Ethical consumption and for accumulating merits for and spiritual orientation is the key note of Buddhist future life. It provides a basis to worldly life and economy. Wealth and virtue should go hand in also to moral and spiritual life. Buddha realized hand. Buddhism calls for balancing of wants and the need and importance of wealth. With empty consumption, of labour and leisure, of income and stomach one can not get wisdom nor can one teach expenditure. This moderation is technically known wisdom. Buddha, therefore, did not preach to as samajivita. (Anguttaranikaya, IV. P.281). This hungry persons. With poverty all evils come,
{48} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 economic offences are generated and social motivation, material resources, monetary system, institutions are disrupted and destroyed. With technological support, management at different economic growth social order and peace are levels, and market for distribution. The established. It is advocacy of mixed economy with development and management of economy in the individual initiative and state control. This Buddhist framework touches all the three phases message is clearly conveyed in the Cakkvatthi- of production, distribution and consumption simhanadasutta and Katadantasutta. keeping in view the law of demand and supply. Buddhist economy has both micro and macro The motivating factor is not first production and dimensions. It attends to all facets of economy then creation of demand; rather it stands for agriculture, industry, trade and commerce, production only for satisfaction of legitimate business and fiscal policies. It deals with demand. Economic planning comes under Upaya employment, production, distribution, kausal (skillful and efficacious employment of consumption and development of economy. It means). It has two stages. One is management of explicitly states what is to be produced, how to be action and the other is management of the results produced, how much is to be produced and for of action. It is emphasized that we must know what whom it is to be produced. The same applies to is to act, why to act, and how to act. We must act consumption as well. Economy is to be evaluated in most skillful manner so as to realize the desired depending upon the way it is produced and result. Management of result is to be guided by consumed. Care is to taken that there is no violence intra-generational and intergenerational justice. or harm to self and to other living beings and to Our wants are unlimited but resources are limited nature. As stated earlier, non-violence is at the and exhaustible though renewable to some extent. center stage of Buddhist economy. The doctrine Our wants are increasing day by day; our desires of karma comes as a guiding principle in remain in-satiated. Consumerism has led to more structuring the economic system in so far as it and more hankering after sensuous pleasures and emphasizes rational action and intentionality desire for fulfillment of carnal appetites. Strictly coupled with universal responsibility. One must speaking our needs are limited but wants are possess pious mind for righteous livelihood. becoming unlimited. So we have to set limits to Humane development is the keynote of our wants and cease to be ‘ever-wanting Buddhist Economy. Development is for human storehouse’. We wrongly think that nature has being and not that human being is for development. infinite resources or that all resources should be But it is sustainable development of the entire geared for our benefits only. According to Buddha cosmos and not just human development. It the problem of scarcity leads to unjust distribution involves seven factors, viz., human agency, human and consequent poverty. Wealth can generate
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {49} resources but cannot remove scarcity. So we have high time that Buddha’s teachings are made to out to control our wants and desires (tanha) making a step the confinements of religious or academic distinction between need and greed. enterprises, though they are also useful, and other Buddhism as a school of thought and a way dimensions are also attended to. It is revisiting of life is at once both ancient and modern. It proved Buddhism with fresh insights and innovative ideas useful in the past and could spread all over Asia, and creative reinterpretations. Perhaps a collective not by force but by conviction and usefulness. In thinking and multidisciplinary team work may be modern times also it has attracted the minds of more helpful. It is hoped that the Buddhist the elites all over the world. But ramifications of alternative will be reconstructed and given a fair its seminal ideas are yet to be worked out in trial to ameliorate the human miseries, as was the different fields of human and cosmic life as per objective of the Buddha. the modern needs and aspirations. Buddha was a Note: This paper can be read ignoring practical and pragmatic person and he had genuine Sanskrit words, the English equivalents of which concern for human and cosmic wellbeing. It is are given in bracket.
{50} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 REPORT
Conference on Afghanistan and the Region; 23 July 2013, Washington DC
The India Foundation has joined hands with stands at $ 2 billion today. Almost the entire three Washington DC-based think tanks to amount is spent on development related activity organise an important international conference on like the construction of the new Parliament Afghanistan and the Region - Security, Stability building, dams, roads, electricity to Kabul, and Prosperity on 23 July 2013. The event was hospitals, schools etc.” He cautioned the US-led held in the Canon Building on the Capitol Hill in NATO forces stressing the need for a systematic Washington DC. Local host organisations were the withdrawal and said, “it must be ensured that we Foundation for India and Indian Diaspora Studies do not leave behind a ‘Black Hole’ of global (FIIDS) led by Mr. Khanderao Kand, the US India security while leaving that country”. Political Action Committee (USINPAC) led by Mr. The discussions centered on developing a Sanjay Puri and the American Foreign Policy balanced and unified roadmap to enable security Council (AFPC) led by Mr. Herman Pirchner. and stability for a prosperous Afghanistan and Delivering the Keynote Address for the South Asia. Leading US policy makers including Conference, the National President of the BJP Mr. the Chairman and Ranking Member of the House Rajnath Singh said “India’s development aid Foreign Affairs Committee: Congressman Ed
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {51} Mr. Ashraf Haidari, Deputy Chief of Mission of the Afghan Embassy in India said, “it is yet to be seen if the help pledged in the conferences on Afghanistan is delivered”. He was sure that if given a chance and left alone, the Afghans will be able to take care of themselves and their country. Mr. Senge Sering, President, Institute of Gilgit Baltistan Studiesstated that the area of Gligit- Baltistan is the lynchpin of Afghanistan in Pakistan. Ms. Lisa Curtis, Senior Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation and Mr. Michael O’ Hanlon, Director of Research, Brookings Institute weighed in on Royce and Congressman Eliot critical issues relating to peace and security in the L. Engel, and Congressman Joseph Crowley, region. Co-Chair, Congressional Caucus on India and The discussions prompted robust interaction Indian-Americans attended the conference to share between the speakers and the audience. All the American perspective to the debate. They stakeholders agreed that despite challenges facing expressed political willingness for best possible Afghanistan it can achieve security, stability and options relating to US- Afghan alliances on prosperity in the future. However, this will require intelligence gathering, training and equipping committed and inclusive political strategy, Afghan forces during the transition phase. judicious exploitation of natural resources and Congressman Joseph Crowley reiterated that strong and continuous support from the people of Afghanistan have the right to chart their international community. Hope was expressed that own future; “I believe they are ready for peace Afghanistan can rise to these challenges and with and the 2014 elections is their chance to vote for expertise and assistance from stable and ethnically self-governance, stability and security in their diverse democracies like USA and India, as its country”, he said. strategic partners, the country could play a vital Other speakers at the conference included Mr. role in ensuring stability and security not just for Kanwal Sibal, Former Indian ambassador to Russia and Mr. Ajit Doval, Former Director, its own citizens but for those of South Asia and Intelligence Bureau of India. the world.
{52} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 REPORT
Seminar on Cultural Nationalism :The Indian Perspective
ndia Foundation, Centre for Study of Religion Theory of Cultural Nationalism and Society (CSRS), New Delhi and The Cultural Nationalists of Modern Times I Mythic Society, Bangalore jointly organized Issues before the Cultural Nationalists a two day National Seminar on Cultural Problems and Prospects of Indian Nationalism: The Indian Perspective on 7th and Nationalism 8th August 2013 at the prestigious Daly Hall, The Inaugural Address was delivered by Mythic Society, Bangalore. Prof.M.G.S.Narayanan, Former Chairman, The Concept and Themes of the Seminar was: I.C.H.R., New Delhi wherein he spoke that History Nationalism in Ancient India of Cultural Nationalism in India and Europe Colonial Distortions of Indian History and evolved separately. In Europe, it evolved based Society on language concept, but India had far changing Comparing and Contrasting the West and political boundaries and went through frequent India on Nationalism foreign invasions. India had a vague kind of Cultural Nationalism in Indian Perspective cultural unity, which can be found in Sanskrit
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {53} literature, which is now emphasized by right wing civil code which is still not implemented, because Hindu Political Parties. India Nationalism is of the stand by the people at helm of power, the purely modern phenomenon. With the inflow of basic principle of Fraternity is at threat. The ethos population from north to south and also foreign of whole India is secular from time immemorial. military adventures, gave rise to a unique Dharma is basis of Bharatiyata, its unity and composite culture. With the advent of west, fraternity. Dharma constitutes the basic strength nationalism of western type developed, which of India and respect for all groups of people, gave rise to anti –British struggle and assertion Dharma is upliftment of all humanity; we are of native Independence. INDIANS FIRST and INDIVIDUALS NEXT. Keynote Address was delivered by Prof The Special Lecture was delivered by Dr. R.L.M Patil, Chairman (Retd.), Dept of Political N.S.Rajaram a renowned Scientist & Historian on Science, Bangalore University. Addressing the the topic “Cultural Nationalism in India: What gathering, Dr.Patil said that India had a concept and why?” of a Raja and State as in western concept was not Important points of the lecture were: there. It was only after unification of Italy and State and the nation- The nation is defined Germany, concept of Nationalism sprang up in by history, tradition and the identity of the Europe which eventually influenced even India, people who make up the nation. At the same time Indian National Congress was India became independent in 1947, It was established in 1885.Foreigners called us as divided along religious lines and clear Indians; What were We?. The dynamism which national identity was not stressed by the existed and thrived before Independence ruling party. Unity of India as a nation - disappeared immediately after Independence. Sardar Patel united India only because Pt..Nehru made serious mistakes and followed sense of unity going back to untold false identity or notion, because of which we have antiquity and it is wrong to say that the seen criminals’ ruling our nation today. This will British united India correct itself as the culture of India is very strong Ancient Indian nations -Vedic culture with and it will bounce back, but we have to wait local variations that upheld this national for it. spirit The session was presided over by Sri Aurobindo wrote about it more than a Dr.M.K.L.N Sastry, President of The Mythic century ago. It is the Kshatriya spirit that Society, In his speech he said,” Indian culture is upholds a nation, virtues of the Kshatriya an integration of different cultural harmony. we must inculcate. Damage was done by Cultural Nationalism is nothing new for us, “Brahma-bala” of Vasishta defeating secularism is antithesis of religion. The uniform Vishwamitra’s armies
{54} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 Medieval Dark Age- Islamic armies greater sacrifice than laying down one’s destroyed India, but the culture survived life tor the defense of the nation. Never even after 500 years of domination. neglect the soldier Without this cultural foundation, A Special lecture by Dr.Santishree Vijayanagara, Shivaji and Sikhs later D.Pandit, Professor of Politics & Public would not have regrouped as they did. Administration, University of Pune, who Kshatrabala received a blow which is still spoke on Hindu / Indian Civilization. not recovered. India did not glorify its civilization, For Nationalism means defending culture and instance, we go to any South East Asian tradition, but not blind worship of the past. countries, all of their prominent places Nationalism: Sri Aurobindo-”When it is welcome people with Hindu Symbols, said India shall rise, it is Sanatana Dharma Even a Muslim country like Indonesia has that shall rise. When it is said that India named their airways as Garuda Airways, shall be great, it is Sanatana Dharma that but India just shies always or is lethargic shall be great.. It is for the Dharma and by in projecting its glorious past civilization the Dharma alone that India exists… I no symbols. If civilization has to survive, its longer say nationalism is a creed, a religion symbols have to be displayed and this is or faith. It is Sanatana Dharma alone that how, cultural continuity is carried to the is for us nationalism.” Indian rulers next generation. surrendered to foreigners at least three Only Hindu Culture gives all power to times in modern times Women, Goddess Parvathi signifies 1. In 1921, Mahatma Gandhi subverted the Power, Goddess Saraswati signifies Non-Cooperation Movement to support Knowledge and Goddess Lakshmi the Khilafat Movement signifies Wealth. No other religion makes 2. In 1947, Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru their female consort all powerful asked Mountbatten to continue as India is the only civilizational state which Governor General of India portrays gender equality. Draupadi 3. In 1991, the Congress Party handed over symbolizes the most liberated women of the party to Sonia Gandhi and her all time; she played the pivotal role in the entourage Mahabharat War. “War is an ugly thing, but it is not the V.D Savarkar said Hindutva is a Secular ugliest of things. A soldier must feel he is Doctrine. defending something worth by laying Maharshi Aurobindo mentioned Spiritual down his life for this cause. There is no Nationalism as the only goal for India, but
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {55} unfortunately this is not taught in identity and the challenges it will face in educational institutes the future and defined that White, Anglo- Sri Adi Shankara was the first spiritual Saxon, Protestant as an American. Culture unifier of India and no parallels to him and Forms a strong foundation of a Nation. his Advaita Philosophy in the World. Vedic concept of Nation is the Soul and Swami Vivekananda is the modern icon, Spiritual Consciousness of its people. who is instrumental in building Hindu Shri.Achutha Menon, a communist party institutions which are universal in nature. leader from Kerala said ‘Adi Shankra Indian civilization is the only civilization unified the whole of the country’. which assimilates Dr.Lohia, a great socialist leader organized Shri Dattaterya Hosabale, India Policy Ramayana Mela and said such motifs Foundation, New Delhi delivered the unified the Nation. He also said that if valedictory address: Ramayana unified India from north to Inclusive Nationalism contributes to the south, Mahabharat unified between West unity of a Nation. One should take pride and East. in Cultural Nationalism Another important aspect, which can be The collapse of U.S.S.R was because, it was noticed in India, is what ever might be the a multi-national State created with an language, we have common proverbs, and authoritarian rule. For Jews it was a nation this is only possible only when we have a without State, Land, people and cultural values. common cultural identity. Our Sages taught of well being of entire Indian is a perfect example of practicing humankind. Cultural Nationalism Nation; Cultural Nation and Rashtra are conceptually two Nationalism is an everyday experience, but separate terms while Nation refers to unfortunately not part of our academia. Native and Rashtra refers to Contributor The seminar was successful, in rekindling the or Light. In the same way Citizenship and ethos of Cultural Nationalism among the youths. Nationality are separate terms Citizenship More than 12 papers were presented and speakers is a legal term and Nationality is a Socio- had come from all over India and shared their ideas Cultural and Spiritual term. about this concept. The two day event witnessed Sammuel P.Hunting, an influential about 60 participants, who constituted enthusiastic political scientist from U.S.A raised a individuals, students and academic faculty from serious question – ‘Who are We and various educational institutes all across attempts to understand the nature of U.S. the country.
{56} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 REPORT
Rakhine (Myanmar) to Bodh Gaya (India)- Understanding Muslim Buddhist Conflict Seminar held on July 18, 2013
The discussion on the Muslim Buddhist Dr. Chandan Mitra started the discussion conflict was organized by India Foundation on by pointing out that the situation in Myanmar has 18th July, 2013 to provide a platform where spilt over to a large part of the subcontinent. It is eminent speakers shared and put forth their a well planned move by Islamist groups to concerns regarding the recent events in Myanmar mobilize in the name of Umma and cause turmoil and Bodh-Gaya and their impact on India in through the Indian subcontinent. He said it is very particular and the world in general. unfortunate and surprising that considering the The speakers at the event were Dr. Tint Swe, close association between India and Burma Former MP (NLD), Burma Center Delhi (BCD) historically (pointing out that Burma derived its and Shri Bhaskar Mitra, IFS (Retd.), Former name from Brahmadesh), India and Burma post Ambassador to Myanmar. Dr. Chandan Mitra, independence have drifted apart for inexplicable MP (Rajya Sabha) and Director-India Foundation reasons. Burma has gone through a long period of chaired the event. turmoil, particularly due to the military
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {57} dictatorship Burma drew close to China although on Mynamar regarding the Rohingyas. According some leaders were in this period in contact with to him ‘Burmese Muslims’ have been living India. But the issue of today’s discussion of the peacefully for hundreds of years and have had no conflict between the Islamists and the Burmese problems with the Buddhist majority. They people particularly the Buddhists and how this has constitute about 4% of the Myanmar’s population spread to parts of India (mentioning the rally which which is predominantly Buddhist (90%). It was took place in Mumbai as a protest against the important to differentiate between ‘those who just Rohingya Muslims in Burma and how the want to be called Rohingyas’ and ‘those who are morphed pictures were used against the people of militants’ as described in the websites of the North East causing widespread disturbance across extremists. The title, ‘Rohingya’ is extremely the nation). The motive of these activities is to popular outside the country while it is not uttered create disturbances in India and thereby expand inside Burma. The government’s official stand the role of Islamist groups by bringing them under repeatedly states: this population is officially one radical banner so that it serves their purpose called ‘Bangali Muslims’. Foreigners including eventually to radicalize Muslim communities UN are asking to amend the citizenship law of in India. Burma. He said he was ignorant if there any It is now clear that Lashkar-e-Taiba has been country in the world was asked for training the Rohingya insurgents to unleash such amendment massive anti-Buddhist and anti-Hindu violence in He pointed out the unprecedented and India. This is a problem which India shares with disproportionate response of international the democratic Myanmar and there is a need to community to the violence in northern Arakan in discuss and highlight this issue. mid-2012. The situation arose when an Arakanese Dr. Tint Swe started by saying that his woman was gang raped and killed by local Muslim perspectives were those of a Burmese Buddhist men. Unlike the Delhi rape this incident failed to and may be biased. For the serial blasts at Bodh attract world’s attention. His Holiness denounced Gaya he tendered an apology to India in particular violence. Other Buddhist population nations and the Buddhist community around the world in across the world were quiet. There were few to general. He deeply regretted the death and take the case of the Buddhist population. On the causalities of non-Buddhist community He felt other hand when the violence of retaliation broke that it was wise that India was finding out whether out causing 170 deaths foreign assistance flowed Bodh Gaya attacks had any linkage with in hundred of millions of dollars particularly from communal riots in Myanmar. Gulf nations. Compare this to the devastating Dr. Swe pointed that recently there has been Cyclone Nargis which hit costal lower Burma on a lot of pressure from the international community May 2, 2008 in which 130,000 Burmese died. The
{58} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 combined international help was less than USD problem will not go away. Also the biased help to 50MM. a particular community and not to others also fuels This he believed was because the Islamic greater and wider dissent. He shared the Buddhist world is well organized, thanks to OIC (57 perspective on this issue. One Burmese author countries, 5 observers and 7 organizations) and recently wrote an article which says, “Anger and the UN (196 nations). “The Secretary General of anxiety in multi-ethnic Myanmar”. The arguments the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), are interesting. Professor Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu tasked the 1. Threat perception in Buddhist Government of Myanmar to assume its Communities responsibility to eradicate all forms of 2. Name and Shame strategy does not work discrimination against Muslims and not allow 3. Assertive leadership required Buddhist extremists to incite against any section Dr. Swe sincerely wished India and of the community. He noted that this neighbouring countries escape from collateral discrimination includes the 2005 law which damages of this conflict imposes on all Rohingya Muslim families the Shri Bhaskar Mitra said that the reaction policy limiting them to only two children in of the international community on the issue in Buthidaung and Maundaw cities in Arakan State. Myanmar has been very unfortunate. This he said He described this law a violation of all human was because the Burmese government has always rights standards.” failed to put across their own views and failed to Common Burmese are curious to know what put across the situation as they see it in a more did task mean. It is not a usual diplomatic persuasive manner. They just let it slide. language such as urge, call for or appeal. He spoke Shri Mitra got into the genesis of the problem. at the Arakan Rohingya Union Congress held in The first Muslims who went in Myanmar was in Jeddah from 7 – 8 July 2013. On the same day on 1430 when the then King Narameikhla restored July 7, two Buddhist monks were injured in a his kingdom with the help of the Sultanate of string of bombings at Bihar’s 1,500-year old Bengal. They were small in number. Mahabodhi temple in Bodh Gaya in India where The term Rohingya itself doesn’t exist the Buddha attained enlightenment. anywhere either as an ethinc group or as any other He pointed that the world community fails group and the Government of Myanmar has to take the entire issue in perspective and the consistently refused to accept that there is any biased reporting often leads to certain wrong ethnic group as Rohingya. The first time this word, perceptions. The pushing factor for communal which was written by a local journalist in a local riots since the last one year in Burma is rooted in paper The Guardian, Rangoon where they sought migration from outside. Unless this is checked a political identity. Although Muslims had been
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {59} moving there in small numbers since 1430 it demand on part of Muslim population of joining basically increased after the conquest of the Bangladesh started. In 1952, Myanmar Arakan by the British around 1820. The British government carried out the Mayu operation and like all over the world created a major problem in 1954, they carried out Operation Monsoon. The here. They wanted the good farming land and major centres of the Mujahids were captured and increased paddy production so they bought by 1957 they had surrendered. The Mujahids Muslims over from India. Hence unchecked surrendered to Brigadier Aung Gyi once they migration took place there. In 20 years, the realized that hat there was no longer any hope for population had jumped over 300%. This became their rebellion due to negotiations a problem politically, socially and economically between Burma and Pakistani governments on vis-a-vis the local people. handling of the rebels on border areas. The situation continued right up to 1942 From 1962 when General Ne Win took over, when the Japanese invaded Burma. General Aung who was a very strong administrator, things were San allied with the Japanese initially. British very quiet. Then came the 1971 war, where thought that since there was a difference with the Bangladesh fought for independence and naturally Muslim community so they armed the Muslim there was lot of flow of arms in the region. At the community in the Arakan asking them to fight the end of that, many of the Muslim groups of Arakan Japanese and promised them a national area of got hold of substantial number of arms. They their own. Fortunately for the British and started this party called the Rohingya Liberation unfortunately for everybody else in Myanmar, the Party which was a very aggressive party and it Muslim population used those weapons not against started operation against the Burmese Army in the Japanese but to wipe out the Arakanese 1974. This in one form or the other continued. In Buddhists. 20,000 people are recorded killed. First 1978 General Win carried out Operation King seeds of real violence were sown at that time. Dragon which was a very major operation and In 1946, well before the time of independence large number of persons fled Myanmar. In the early of Myanmar, when of course a great deal of talk 1980s, more radical elements broke away from of independence was going on and Mr. Jinnah was the Rohingya Patriotic Front (RPF) and formed speaking loud and far. The Muslim leaders who the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO). RSO have gone under various names like Rohingya was based only on religious lines unlike others Patriotic Group, Rohingya Liberation Front etc who also had a political front. In 1991, Myanmar approached Jinnah and asked for a separate region, government again carried out a massive operation adjacent to Bangladesh, to be joined with the then against Rohingyas and over 250,000 fled. It is Pakistan. Not much came of it but thereafter interesting to note that at that point of time, Saudi continuously illegal immigration continued and Defence Minister Prince Khaled Sultan Abdul
{60} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 Aziz happened to visit Bangladesh and it is there that the Myanmar government is doing very best on record that he advised the Bangladesh under very trying circumstances. How long this Government to go against Burma like Operation patience will last is yet to be seen Desert Storm. Dr. Chandan Mitra thanked the speakers for This situation continued till Gen Win stepped putting the problem in perspective. down in 1988. After democracy waves started and have gone after this entire conflict on the student’s movement, there was a situation of religious basis and they have enormous support confusion, an uneasy situation in Myanmar so the from Muslim groups in the country and outside Rohingyas again went on the offensive. The monks the county. It is not entirely correct to talk of have a very significant hold over the army. In 1988 Muslim-Buddhist conflict as such because in when the students demonstrated for democracy, addition to Muslims pushing the religious factor the senior most monks lend their support to this very far the Buddhist monks have up till now movement. When some of the soldiers had orders played a very low role. I really don’t see them out to shoot down the monks, some of the monks in in a militant mood like in the past. Theravada Mandalay who are most active monks, Buddhism is that branch of Buddhism where the immediately passed a fatwa against the Generals monks do take very active part in politics as we saying that they will not attend their marriages, have seen in Vietnam, Thailand and also in Burma funerals and so on. Within hours the Generals were from time to time but certainly not on this issue. on their knees and apologized to the monks. It is As regards the recent riots in 2012, foreign not entirely correct to talk of Muslim-Buddhist minister of Bangladesh Deepu Moni, herself said conflict as such because unlike the Muslims that the Jamat in Bangladesh was actively helping pushing the religious factor very far the Buddhist these people. If you take this entire picture into monks have till now played a very dormant role. mind it leaves us with no doubt that the Myanmar Theravada Buddhism, predominant in Myanmar, government is doing very best under very trying is that branch of Buddhism where the monks do circumstances. I would really love to see how the take very active part in politics as we have seen in west which is so critical of Myanmar would have Vietnam, Thailand and also in Burma from time dealt with a situation like this if it happened in to time. However in Myanmar there intervention their own country. has been very limited till now. If you take this Dr. Chandan Mitra thanked Shri Bhaskar entire picture into mind it leaves us with no doubt Mitra for putting the problem in perspective.
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {61} BOOK REVIEW
Historicity of Vedic and Ramayana Eras: Scientific Evidences from the Depths of Oceans to the Heights of the Skies
Author: Saroj Bala Kulbhushan Mishra Publisher : Institute of Scientific Research on Vedas ; Rs.960/-
The book provides a fresh perspective of our past on the basis of multi disciplinary scientific research using the most modern tools to recreate our ancient history with unquestionable accuracy.The author belongs to 1972 batch of Indian Revenue Service with a deep interest in the study of Historyand Archaeology.
istoricity of Vedic and Ramayana Eras: This book is the result of the National Scientific Evidences from the Depths of Seminar on Scientific Dating of Ancient Events ‘H Oceans to the Heights of Skies’, edited by Before 2000 BC, which was organized by Institute Saroj Bala, & Kulbhushan Mishra. Published by of Scientific Research on Vedas (I-SERVE), Delhi Institute of Scientific Research on Vedas (I- Chapter on 30th & 31st July 2011 at New Delhi. SERVE Delhi Chapter) This book contains research papers of eminent A casual look at this well illustrated and scientists/scholars from the fields of Astronomy, beautifully produced book would first give an Archaeology, Palaeobotany, Remote Sensing, impression that it is just another work glorifying Oceanography, Anthropology, etc. These papers, our remote past, but a closer examination written in simple language, bring out amazing immediately reveals that it is a work of multi- confirmation of some of the events and facts disciplinary scientific research using the most described in ancient scriptures! modern tools to recreate our ancient history with The book also contains inaugural address of unquestionable accuracy. His Excellency Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, former
{62} India Foundation Journal, September 2013 President of India and a renowned scientist titled the latest archaeological data from the sites like ‘Past meets the Present Leading to a better Future’. Mehargarh, Kotdiji and Nausharo in northwest; His speech mentions how scientific dating of Lothal and Dholavira in Gujarat; Lahuradewa, ancient events leads to transformation of Jhusi, Tokwa and Hetapatti in Ganga Valley have mythology into history. He also referred to Prof. proved the indigenous origin and development of Tobias’s work on Genetics and Palaeo- civilization in the Indian sub-continent since anthropology. He recommended launching of 7000 BC. major research initiative on India’s epics C.M. Nautiyal explained the theoretical basis, comprising of at least 100 Ph.Ds with the highly principles and methods of Radiometric dating talented scholars to ascertain the veracity of techniques in his paper titled ‘Radiocarbon dating history and dates of events in our epics. in Determining the Antiquity of Cultural Remains Ashok Bhatnagar’s paper titled in India’. He further elucidated that some new ‘Astronomical Dating of Planetary References in methods including Thermo Luminescence (TL), Rigveda and Epics using Planetarium software’ Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and deals with the study of astronomical references Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) have also mentioned in Vedas and epics. He traced the been developed and used for dating archaeological evolution of the Indian calendar from around 7000 samples. He also explained the results of BC. On the basis of planetary references in the Radiocarbon dating which have been conducted Valmiki Ramayana at the birth time of Rama, he at sites like Banawali, Kunal, Tokwa, Lahuradewa, calculated 10th January 5114 BC as the date of Jhusi and Kanmer. birth of Rama. Several other dates calculated by Chanchala Srivastava’s paper on him sequentially match with the references in ‘Archaeobotanical Evidences of Ancient Cultures Ramayana. His study established that many of the in Indian Sub-continent before 2000 BC’ starts events mentioned in the Vedas and the epics are with the explanation of the term Archaeobotany/ real and it is possible to ascertain their dates in a Palaeoethnobotany and history of purely scientific manner. archaeobotanical researches in India, which is Kulbhushan Mishra presented vast followed by the zone wise and culture wise information of material remains of human past distribution of ancient plants, trees and herbs recovered from different archaeological sites found during the course of excavations at various located in the Indian sub-continent, ranging from sites of Indian Sub-continent. 7th to 4th millennium BC, in his paper titled A joint paper by J.R. Sharma and B.K Bhadra ‘Origin and Development of Civilization in the titled ‘Signatures of Palaeo Rivers Network in Indian Sub-continent during last 8000 years: An Northwest India using Satellite Remote Sensing’ Archaeological Perspective’. He elaborated that is a wonderful study based on satellite pictures
India Foundation Journal, September 2013 {63} taken by ISRO. According to their study the ‘Genetic Profile of the People of India during Saraswati river system was in existence around Holocene: Some Inferences’ that recent genetic 6000 BC in the northwestern regions of Indian profiling of world populations corroborates that sub-continent. They explained that the river entire population from all parts of India had Saraswati originated in higher Himalayas, flowed common ancestors and indigenous civilization has through the states of Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, constantly been developing in Indian sub-continent Haryana and Rajasthan and finally discharged into for more than 10000 years. Therefore, the Dravidians the Rann of Kachchh in Gujarat. The river dried as well as North Indians have common ancestors and up during 2500-1500 BC due to tectonic and both are indigenous to India. palaeo-climatic changes in Himalayan region. The In last paper titled ‘Historicity of Ramayana radiometric dating of river sediments suggests that Era: Scientific Evidences from the Depths of the age of Vedic Saraswati may be as old as Oceans to the Heights of Skies’ Saroj Bala, the 28,000 years. main force behind this publication, corroborated Rajeev Nigam explained the fluctuations of the salient features of all the papers included in water levels in the oceans in his paper titled ‘Sea this book. She correlated the astronomical dates Level Fluctuations during last 15000 years and of Ramayana Era with geographical and their Impact on Human Settlements’. On the basis geological evidences of more than 250 places of the oceanographic studies a sea level curve was visited by Lord Ram in India and Sri Lanka. She prepared and it shows that around 2500 BC, sea also presented the genealogy chart of Suryavansha, level was high and the ancient site of Lothal in giving names of 63 predecessors and 30 successors Gujarat was on the sea level. He also explained of Lord Ram. that as per the sea level curve water level of the Overall this book takes a valuable initiative ocean was about 3 meters below the present level in ascertaining the true antiquity of ancient history between 7000-7200 BP. It shows that the Ram Setu of India based purely on the multi-disciplinary which is submerged at about 3 meters depth at scientific research; as a result of which Vedas and present was a walkable bridge between India and Epics, in particular Ramayana and Mahabharata, Sri Lanka during the time of Ramayana. are likely to shift from the realm of mythology to V.R. Rao explained in his paper titled the realm of History. - Book Review by Dr. Vimal Tiwari, Assistant Archaeologist, Archaeological Survey of India, Lucknow Circle
{64} India Foundation Journal, September 2013