Can Poland Build Conventional Deterrence Capability Against Russia?
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Nuclear Threshold Lowered?
Print ISSN 2433-4189 / Online ISSN 2433-4197 グローバルセキュリティセミナー叢書 第６号 GLOBAL SECURITY SEMINAR SERIES NO. 6 NDA-FOI Joint Seminar Nuclear Threshold Lowered? Coedited by Hideya Kurata and Jerker Hellström 防衛大学校先端学術推進機構 グローバルセキュリティセンター © National Defense Academy, Japan Ministry of Defense 1-10-20 Hashirimizu, Yokosuka, 239-8686 JAPAN Global Security Seminar Series No.6 NDA-FOI Joint Seminar Nuclear Threshold Lowered? Coedited by Hideya Kurata and Jerker Hellström March 2021 Center for Global Security, National Defense Academy Yokosuka, Japan i CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv INTRODUCTION 1 CHAPTER 1 Frank A. Rose Assessing the 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review? 7 CHAPTER 2 Hirofumi Tosaki Regional Deterrence and Nuclear Arms Control: 20 A Japanese Perspective CHAPTER 3 John Rydquist Nuclear Dilemmas in Europe: Nuclear Deterrence and 38 Strategic Stability post-INF CHAPTER 4 Naomi Koizumi Russia’s Debate on Strategic Deterrence: 50 From Strategic Nuclear Deterrence to Hybrid Warfare CHAPTER 5 Masahiro Kurita Strategic Stability in Changing Nuclear South Asia: 63 Emerging Risks CHAPTER 6 Johan Englund China’s Nuclear Policy and Sino–Indian Relations in the 77 Nuclear Realm CHAPTER 7 Hideya Kurata Escaping from the Accuracy-Vulnerability Paradox: 93 The DPRK’s Initial Escalation Ladders in War Strategy CHAPTER 8 Jerker Hellström North Korea’s Nuclear Posture after the Summit 105 Meetings: A View from China CHAPTER 9 Takeshi Watanabe South Korean Civilians’ Political Domain behind 110 Coercion: A Chance for Autonomy from Alliances CONTRIBUTORS 124 ii GLOBAL SECURITY SEMINAR SERIES Global Security Seminar Series is published occasionally by the Center for Global Security. The Center designs series of international seminars and other independent seminars. -
KOREAN PENINSULA RISK ASSESSMENT, MARCH 2021 Cover Image Source: U.S
Open Nuclear Network’s KOREAN PENINSULA RISK ASSESSMENT, MARCH 2021 Cover image source: U.S. Department of State (top left); KCTV (right and bottom left) Open Nuclear Network’s KOREAN PENINSULA RISK ASSESSMENT, MARCH 2021 Jaewoo SHIN Veronika BEDENKO Clayton BESAW Matthew FRANK Katsuhisa FURUKAWA Tianran XU April 2021 ONN Korean Peninsula Risk Assessment, March 2021 | 1 CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 2 II. TIMELINE ...................................................................................................................................................... 3 III. US-ROK JOINT MILITARY EXERCISES AND HIGH LEVEL CONSULTATIONS ..................... 5 IV. DPRK PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON FOREIGN RELATIONS IN MARCH 2021 .......................... 7 V. DPRK MISSILE LAUNCHES IN MARCH 2021 .................................................................................. 11 VI. NEAR-TERM RISKS................................................................................................................................. 18 VII. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................................... 21 ONN Korean Peninsula Risk Assessment, March 2021 | 2 I.INTRODUCTION Even though the “North Korea policy review” by the new Biden administration has reportedly yet to be concluded,1 the month of March 2021 marked the first significant public -
Les Missiles Balistiques Pour Accomplir Ce Type De Frappe
Volume C1 - Chapitre 1 CARACTÉRISTIQUES DES MISSILES BALISTIQUES Le présent chapitre traite des engins porteurs de charge de destruction massive : nucléaire, radiologique, biologique ou chimique (NRBC). Ce sont pour l’essentiel des missiles balistiques quoique, dans le passé, des obus à charge nucléaire aient été mis en service1 et que, plus récemment, des missiles de croisière2 aient emporté ou emportent des charges atomiques. C11.1 : Tir nucléaire effectué par un canon américain de 280 mm Seuls les engins balistiques seront considérés dans la suite du Volume C1. 1 Il s’agit de projectiles d’artillerie américaine ou russe, tirés par des armes de calibre allant de 155 mm à 420 mm. 2 Cf. Volume C2. La multiplication puis le risque de prolifération des armes nucléaires ayant été jugées les plus préoccupantes, plusieurs accords internationaux bilatéraux ou multilatéraux ont été signés depuis la Deuxième Guerre Mondiale, avec pour objet de faire décroitre les arsenaux existants, d’interdire ou d’en restreindre les nouveaux développements et de contrôler la diffusion des technologies de missiles. L’annexe du chapitre en indique les principales évolutions, tout en faisant apparaître que plusieurs États ont décidé de ne pas s’y associer. On y trouvera donc l’explication de la réduction des parcs américains et russes et celle de la croissance des missiles balistiques d’autres pays, notamment la Chine. RAPPEL CHRONOLOGIQUE . La genèse C’est au cours de la Deuxième Guerre Mondiale que l’Allemagne a effectué les premières réalisations d’un lanceur capable d’emporter des charges militaires sur un autre continent, à destination des États-Unis. -
Changes of North Korea's Missile Development Strategy And
CO 21-11 Changes of North Korea’s Missile Development Strategy and Competition for Missile Development between South and North Korea 2021. 03. 31. | CO 21-11 JANG, Cheol-wun (Research Fellow, Unification Policy Research Division) NorthKorea’scruiseandballisticmissilelaunchesonMarch2021demonstratethefact thatamissiledevelopmentstrategyoftheKimJongUnerahasbecomedifferentfrom that of the Kim Il-sung․KimJong-il eras.In fact, inter-Korean competition formissile development lies at the heart of the Kim Jong Un regime’s transition to the parallel development of solid-propellant surface-to-surface ballistic and cruise missiles in additiontoexpandingtherangeofliquid-propellantsurface-to-surfaceballisticmissiles. Inter-Korean competition over missile development could become fiercer and the securitydilemmacoulddeepenintheprocessofimplementingamissiledevelopment strategy as presented at the 8th Party Congress by Chairman Kim Jong Un. Ballistic Missile Launch in a Year Followed by the Announcement of Kim Yo Jong and Choi Sun Hee North Korea finally set out to express the words and actions in March 2021 after it had remained silent amidst the Biden administration taking office and the beginning of the ROK-U.S. joint military exercise. The first verbal action was taken by the 217,217, Banpo-daero, Banpo-daero, Seocho-gu, Seocho-gu, Seoul Seoul 06578, 06578, Korea Korea Tel. Tel.82-2-2023-800082-2-2023-8000 l 82-2-2023-8208l 82-2-2023-8208 www.kinu.or.kr www.kinu.or.kr 1 CO 21-11 first vice-department director of North Korea’s Central Committee of the ruling Workers’ Party Kim Yo Jong who is in charge of North Korea’s external and South Korean policy. In a discourse announced on March 15, 2021, the first vice-department director Kim Yo Jong criticized the implementation of the ROK-U.S. -
(CUWS) Outreach Journal Issue 1300
Issue No. 1300 2 February 2018 // USAFCUWS Outreach Journal Issue 1300 // Feature Item “Iran Sanctions”. Written by Kenneth Katzman, published by the Congressional Research Service; January 17, 2018 https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS20871.pdf U.S. sanctions—and U.S. attempts to achieve imposition of multilateral and international sanctions on Iran—have been a significant component of U.S. Iran policy for several decades. In the 1980s and 1990s, U.S. sanctions were intended to try to compel Iran to cease supporting acts of terrorism and to limit Iran’s strategic power in the Middle East more generally. Since the mid2000s, U.S. sanctions have focused on ensuring that Iran’s nuclear program is for purely civilian uses and, since 2010, the international community has cooperated with a U.S.-led and U.N.- authorized sanctions regime in pursuit of that goal. Still, sanctions against Iran have multiple objectives and address multiple perceived threats from Iran simultaneously. This report analyzes U.S. and international sanctions against Iran and provides some examples, based on open sources, of companies and countries that conduct business with Iran. CRS has no way to independently corroborate any of the reporting on which these examples are based and no mandate to assess whether any firm or other entity is complying with U.S. or international sanctions against Iran. twitter.com/USAF_CUWS | cuws.au.af.mil // 2 // USAFCUWS Outreach Journal Issue 1300 // TABLE OF CONTENTS US NUCLEAR WEAPONS A Microscopic Fungus Could Mop Up Our Cold War-era Nuclear Waste Trump: We Must 'Modernize and Rebuild' Nuclear Arsenal USS Wyoming Arrives in Norfolk for Overhaul AEDC Stands Up ICBM Combined Test Force at Hill Air Force Base US COUNTER-WMD Another US Navy Ballistic Missile Intercept Reportedly Fails in Hawaii Army Taps Lockheed for 10 More THAAD Interceptors Is the Army Ready to Transform its Missile Defense Force? New Army Missile Defense Strategy Due Out This Summer Missile Defense Vs. -
Opening Hcoc to Cruise Missiles: a Proposal to Overcome Political Hurdles
Opening HCoC to cruise missiles: a proposal to overcome political hurdles Opening HCoC to cruise missiles: A proposal to overcome political hurdles The issue of extending the scope of the Hague Code of Conduct to cruise missiles is regularly raised in HCOC RESEARCH PAPERS academic and political discussions about the Code. Some non-subscribing States justify their refusal to join NO. 5 the instrument because of this exclusion, perceived as a major flaw. Indeed, cruise missiles have characteristics that can make them very effective in carrying weapons FEBRUARY 2019 of mass destruction. It is therefore clearly of interest to consider extending the HCoC scope to these weapons. Nevertheless, cruise missiles are also used as conventional missiles. It is unthinkable for States Stéphane Delory acquiring and using cruise missiles in theatres of operation to adopt confidence-building measures such Emmanuelle Maitre as test notifications. Specifying and limiting the type of cruise missiles to be considered would thus be necessary. In view of the technological characteristics of Jean Masson current systems, only a functional criterion based on political declarations would be appropriate. States would be invited to pre-notify and declare “systems used to deliver weapons of mass destruction”, on the basis of good faith. This standard would have limitations and could be criticized for lacking ambition and neglecting potentially proliferating systems. Nevertheless, as the current positions of subscribing States range from a lack of interest to clear hostility, a partial introduction of cruise missiles in the Code seems to be the only option acceptable at the political and strategic level. Opening HCoC to cruise missiles: a proposal to overcome political hurdles DISCLAIMER This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. -
North Korea Missile Activity in 2017
North Korea Missile Activity in 2017 February 12, 2017 – Medium Range Ballistic Missile Launch Missile Pukguksong-2, also known as the KN-15 Flight The missile flew ~ 500 km (310 mi) on a lofted trajectory, reaching a height of ~ 550 km (340 mi). Landed Sea of Japan Status Success What did we learn? This was the first flight test of KN-15, a land-based version of the KN-11. The missile uses solid fuel which reduces the preparation time necessary for a launch and the associated fueling infrastructure (trucks and staff) that would increase the detectability of the missile. March 5, 2017 – Salvo Launch of Medium Range Ballistic Missiles Missile Four ballistic missiles launched simultaneously, allegedly a fifth missile failed to launch. The missiles were likely Extended-Range SCUDs. Flight The missiles flew ~ 1,000 km (620 mi), and reached an altitude of 260 km (160 mi) Landed Sea of Japan, three within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone Status Success What did we learn? Salvo launching ballistic missiles is a tactic for overwhelming an adversary’s defense and monitoring systems. North Korea is likely testing its ability to launch such a strike. March 22, 2017 – Failed Ballistic Missile Launch Missile Unknown Flight Unknown Landed Exploded seconds after launch Status Failure What did we learn? Very little about this test is known, other than that a ballistic missile exploded within seconds of launch. There is another theory that the missile may have exploded before even being launched. April 5, 2017 – Failed Short Range Ballistic Missile Launch Missile Originally deemed a KN-15, but could also be an older extended-range liquid- fueled SCUD. -
Nuclear Risk Reduction Approach for the Korean Peninsula
Open Nuclear Network’s NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION APPROACH FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA Open Nuclear Network’s NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION APPROACH FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA September 2020 ABSTRACT Open Nuclear Network (ONN), a programme of One Earth Future, is a non-governmental organisation committed to global peacebuilding efforts via the two-pronged approach explained in this paper. ONN is dedicated to reducing nuclear risks through the use of open source data analysis and engagement with decision makers in areas of conflict. Its focus this year — the 70th anniversary of the beginning of the Korean War — is on the Korean Peninsula and the continued tension in the region. This paper examines the complex entanglement surrounding the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear crisis and identifies possible triggers and pathways towards conflict escalation. It serves both as a guide to establishing a general operational concept and as an action plan outline for ONN’s analysts and its Engagement Network to reduce the risk that nuclear weapons may be used in response to error, uncertainty and misdirection during times of crisis. CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 01 II. SIX COUNTRY PROFILES ........................................................................................... 02 A. China .................................................................................................................................................02 B. DPRK .................................................................................................................................................04 -
North Korea Missile Activity in 2017
1 North Korea Missile Activity in 2017 February 12, 2017 – Medium Range Ballistic Missile Launch Missile Pukguksong-2, also known as the KN-15 Flight The missile flew ~ 500 km (310 mi) on a lofted trajectory, reaching a height of ~ 550 km (340 mi). Landed Sea of Japan Status Success What did we learn? This was the first flight test of KN-15, a land-based version of the KN-11. The missile uses solid fuel which reduces the preparation time necessary for a launch and the associated fueling infrastructure (trucks and staff) that would increase the detectability of the missile. March 5, 2017 – Salvo Launch of Medium Range Ballistic Missiles Missile Four ballistic missiles launched simultaneously, allegedly a fifth missile failed to launch. The missiles were likely Extended-Range SCUDs. Flight The missiles flew ~ 1,000 km (620 mi), and reached an altitude of 260 km (160 mi) Landed Sea of Japan, three within Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone Status Success What did we learn? Salvo launching ballistic missiles is a tactic for overwhelming an adversary’s defense and monitoring systems. North Korea is likely testing its ability to launch such a strike. March 22, 2017 – Failed Ballistic Missile Launch Missile Unknown Flight Unknown Landed Exploded seconds after launch Status Failure What did we learn? Very little about this test is known, other than that a ballistic missile exploded within seconds of launch. There is another theory that the missile may have exploded before even being launched. armscontrolcenter.org April 5, 2017 – Failed Short Range Ballistic Missile Launch Missile Originally deemed a KN-15, but could also be an older extended-range liquid- fueled SCUD. -
New Missiles, Eroding Norms
Dominika Kunertova ABOUT THE AUTHOR Dominika Kunertova, PhD, is a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, where she researches military technology trends and transatlantic armaments co- NEW MISSILES, operation. Her previous work experience includes strategic foresight at NATO ACT, capability development at NATO ERODING NORMS HQ, and unmanned systems at the Center for War Studies in Odense. European Options after the Demise of the INF Treaty ISBN 978875745038-5 DJØF PUBLISHING IN COOPERATION WITH 9 788757 450385 THE CENTRE FOR MILITARY STUDIES New Missiles, Eroding Norms European Options after the Demise of the INF Treaty Dominika Kunertova New Missiles, Eroding Norms European Options after the Demise of the INF Treaty Djøf Publishing In cooperation with The Centre for Military Studies 2021 Dominika Kunertova New Missiles, Eroding Norms: European Options after the Demise of the INF Treaty © 2021 by Djøf Publishing and The Centre for Military Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means – electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise – without the prior written permission of the Publisher. This publication is peer reviewed according to the standards set by the Danish Ministry of Higher Education and Science. Cover: Morten Lehmkuhl Print: Ecograf Printed in Denmark 2021 ISBN 978-87-574-5038-5 Djøf Publishing Gothersgade 137 1123 København K Telefon: 39 13 55 00 e-mail: [email protected] www. djoef-forlag.dk Editors’ preface The publications of this series present new research on defence and se- curity policy of relevance to Danish and international decision-makers. -
Proposal for a Regional Missile Limitation Regime
Proposal for a regional missile limitation regime An alternative to missile defence in Northeast Asia Akira Kurosaki Faculty of Law, Rikkyo University, 3-34-1 Nishi-Ikebukuro, Toshima-ku, Tokyo, Japan 171-8501; [email protected] Besides technological and economic problems associated with the development and deploy- ment of missile defence systems, the US missile defence policy has significant political and strategic implications. In this article, reactions of states in Northeast Asia to this missile de- fence policy are outlined. Subsequently, as an alternative to missile defence, a proposal for a regional missile limitation regime is presented, which aims at co-operatively reducing the threat of missiles through missile control and disarmament and enhancing regional security and stability. In December 2002, US President George W. Bush announced the initial deployment of missile defence systems in 2004 to protect the homeland, troops overseas, and friend and allies of the United States against the threat of ballistic missiles. Certainly, ballistic missiles, which could be used as a means to deliver Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), i.e., nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, are threatening to the security of any country. The United States is not an exception. The development and deployment of missile defence systems by the United States, however, is very problematic. First, the technological feasibility of effective missile defence is still deeply in doubt. Second, the cost-effectiveness of missile defence as a countermeasure to the threat of ballistic missiles and/or WMD is questionable. More importantly, whether US mis- sile defence systems would operate as expected or not, they could have seriously negative impacts on security and stability in various parts of the world. -
Alternative East Asian Nuclear Futures Volume I: Military Scenarios
Alternative East Asian Nuclear Futures Volume I: Military Scenarios Henry D. Sokolski Editor Alternative East Asian Nuclear Futures Volume I: Military Scenarios Alternative East Asian Nuclear Futures Volume I: Military Scenarios Edited by Henry D. Sokolski Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Copyright © 2018 by Henry D. Sokolski Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Arlington, VA 22209 www.npolicy.org Printed in the United States of America All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. ISBN 978-0-9862-895-7-6 Cover images, from left to right: 1) Chinese DF-26 missiles at a 2015 WWII victory parade in Beijing; 2) North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspects what is claimed to be a nuclear device in a photo released by state media; and 3) Japanese destroyer JS Kirishima in a joint missile defense intercept test with the U.S. Mis- sile Defense Agency in the mid-Pacific. Contents Introduction 1 Henry D. Sokolski 1. Alternative North Korean Nuclear Futures 9 Shane Smith 2. How South Korea Could Acquire and Deploy 51 Nuclear Weapons Charles Ferguson 3. Japanese Strategic Weapons Futures: Three 84 Alternative Futures Ian Easton 4. A Possible Japanese Nuclear Force: 139 Motivations and Practical Challenges Gregory S. Jones 5. China’s Future Nuclear Force Infrastructure: 175 A Notional Breakout Scenario Mark Stokes About the Contributors 187 Introduction Alternative East Asian Nuclear Futures Henry D. Sokolski The 13 chapters contained in this book’s two volumes were prompt- ed by a single inquiry in 2012 from the MacArthur Foundation.