UK AutoIndex – Quarterly report
Q3 2017 Looking to the future: Connected cars in the UK
Connected cars in the UK In 1885, Karl Benz built his first car: the Benz Patent- Mobility in Society, a recent joint SMMT/Strategy& Motorwagen. It had three wheels, seating for two, and study, highlighted the societal benefits of CAVs, just one cylinder (which could power it to the heady finding that new CAV technology will offer freedom heights of 10mph). Cars today – after over 130 years to some of society’s most disadvantaged in terms of of development – enjoy a significant number of mobility (those with disabilities, the elderly, and the revisions to Benz’s creation: more wheels, more young). Over 70% of young (aged 17-24) people cylinders, and many more horsepower. Perhaps most surveyed believe that CAV technology will improve significant, however, is that many are also connected their quality of life, and nearly 60% of respondents and increasingly moving towards autonomy, with believe that CAVs will bring benefits, with the features such as semi-autonomous driving, and biggest attraction being automatic braking and a real-time sharing of vehicle maintenance and vehicle’s ability to self-diagnose faults. CAVs also diagnostic data. The important (and relatively bring improved safety: it is predicted that CAVs recent) advance in connected and autonomous could prevent 25,000 annual road accidents in the vehicles (CAVs) looks set to transform both the UK, and through this save around 2,500 lives. economic and social role that cars play in the UK and the world. Here, we briefly analyse two benefits. The outlook for CAVs (both economically and socially) is positive, and the UK is positioning itself The economic benefits of CAVs could be hugely well to benefit from this (for example, by recently significant. Strategy&’s 2017 Digital Auto Report: pushing through a ‘Vehicle Technology and Aviation Fast and Furious portrays a worldwide digital Bill’ to clarify and detail autonomous vehicle mobility services market of $65 billion today, liability and insurance issues). Whilst the UK’s CAV experiencing 31% annual growth, and reaching future will undoubtedly play a big part in any future $2.2 trillion by 2030. Within the UK, the industry auto success, this will depend on far-reaching and body, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and targeted government and industry investment, Traders (SMMT) predicts that CAVs could represent and that the UK remains an attractive place for a £51bn opportunity by 2030. This is a combination automotive companies in a post-Brexit environment. of the value of time that people gain from being able to use drive-time more efficiently, coupled with Our most recent scan of the industry, the “AutoIndex” increased efficiency in the wider economy. (which covers events to Q3 2017) paints a positive picture for the UK’s automotive market as a whole, CAVs also bring significant non-economic benefits. although warnings signs are appearing, with the index Connected and Autonomous Vehicles: Revolutionising dropping 5% Q2-Q3 2017. Read on to find out more.
Strategy& | PwC 1 We at Strategy&, PwC’s strategy consulting business, on the price of PCP/PCH contracts. Moreover, the created this AutoIndex to provide a comprehensive overall levels of personal credit are generating view of the health of the UK automotive sector. concern that borrowers may be over-stretched. We look at (1) the total value of the UK production We cover this in more detail in our forthcoming of suppliers and original equipment manufacturers “UK Used Car Market” viewpoint, to be released (OEMs), (2) the total value of sales, and (3) the in June 2018. valuation of automotive companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. This is detailed further in Only around 20% of UK car production is destined 1) the ‘Challenge and Change’ section of this AutoIndex. for sale in the UK , such that the market slowdown Together, these three measures provide a in only part of the story. Output is also under comprehensive and balanced view of the sector. threat due to the broader Brexit uncertainty as OEMs hedge their bets on UK production (e.g., UK automotive industry health is, according to our the recent reduction in the number of shifts at AutoIndex, still at near-record levels, having Vauxhall’s Ellesmere port plant following its enjoyed sustained improvement for several years. joining the PSA Group. However, warning signs are beginning to appear, with the AutoIndex now below its Q2 2017 level. UK stock markets had a positive year in 2017; the All index components (sales, production, and FTSE 100 grew at nearly 11.9%, and the FTSE 250 market capitalisation) have turned downwards. at 17.8%. Automotive companies performed poorly by comparison, with a reduction of 0.5% in their Sales are under pressure from the general Brexit- market capitalisation. This was driven by insurance related economic uncertainty and the uptick in companies (whose market capitalisation decreased interest rates, which is beginning to put pressure by 5%, hit, by part, through government legislation changes such as the calculation methodology for Exhibit 1 personal injury compensation pay-outs). Aggregate UK automotive industry index (AutoIndex) Base 100 = average 2009-2012, rolling 12 month period*
4 9 18 2 10 4
148 141 142 145 14 143 14 14 144 132 Automotive sales 123 124 125 128 117 121 Automotive production 51 50 51 51 51 51 51 50 48 105 105 100 10 Market capitalisation 46 47 48 49 88 44 45 46 of automotive activities 80 40 42 38 41 51 52 1) SMMT car production data, 59 28 39 51 48 49 48 52 51 50 46 YTD September 2017 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 21 *Numbers may not sum due to 17 45 42 41 45 33 32 rounding 46 £ 24 27 37 39 43 45 44 45 44 44 46 Sources: ONS, SMMT, Driven Data, 27 29 31 32 32 34 4 11 19 20 17 22 21 20 Datastream, Strategy& analysis 80 90 00 08 09 10 11 12 13 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 17 17
Strategy& | PwC 2
AutoIndex components
#1 – Value of total UK automotive sales
The aggregate value of the UK automotive sales compared to Q2 2016. Looking forward, we expect has been falling since Q1 2017 (see Exhibit 2). new vehicle sales to further decrease once the This negative trajectory has been driven by the BoE’s base rate rise fully filters into the automotive value of new vehicle sales, which is down by 6% loans market.
Exhibit 2 UK automotive market value £ billion – rolling 12 month period (non-consolidated)*
25 8 5 0 -5 2
128 129 129 129 129 129 123 127 125 119 121 122 114 11 117 a e ew e e a e 111 arg e e e 102 105 102 Pr g r a te a e a re a r 100 97 tere t a 72 54 42 *Numbers may not sum due to rounding Sources: ONS, SMMT, Driven Data, Strategy& analysis
#2.1 – Value of UK automotive manufacturing
The value of UK automotive production enjoyed 5% Cars (excluding ultra-premium and niche) made in the compound growth Q3 2014-Q3 2017, but is now UK include those by Mini (Oxford), Honda (Swindon), beginning to level off, with a minor dip Q2-Q3 2017 Toyota (Burnaston), Nissan (Sunderland), Jaguar (see Exhibit 3.2, next page). Land Rover (Coventry), and Vauxhall (Ellesmere Port/
Strategy& | PwC 3 Luton). Whilst there are high absolute production Exhibit 3.1 values, there are relatively few car models assembled Top models manufactured in UK January 2018 manufacturing figures in the UK. This means that the annual change in product value is significantly driven by the specific a a a stage in the product lifecycle of UK-produced vehicles. a C y ta r For example, part of the drop throughout 2017 is a ge er S rt accounted for by declining demand for the Vauxhall a ge er e ar a e ag ar Pa e Astra due to its product lifecycle phase. PSA Group a ge er has recently announced that it is cutting 650 jobs at a ge er e its Ellesmere Port plant because of this. Moreover, t er none of the vehicles produced in the UK were newly launched. Source: SMMT
Exhibit 3.2 UK automotive production value £ billion – rolling 12 month period (non-consolidated)*
10 8 9 8 4 4
1 1 0 58 0 59 59 57 5 e e r t a e 54 54 55 55 52 53 54 54 54 Part r t a e 49 48
38 37 32 28 *Numbers may not sum due to rounding Sources: ONS, SMMT, Driven Data, Strategy& analysis
#2.2 – Value of UK automotive manufacturing
2016 saw vehicle manufacturing reach its highest dropping slightly (around £49bn). November 2017 level for a decade, with over 1.7m vehicles produced. car production volumes (161.5K) are below those This was a significant increase of 8.5% over 2015’s from November 2016 (169.3k). This potential high, itself a previous UK record (see Exhibit 4). slowdown is backed up by the Q3 2017 dip in the However, this now appears to be tailing off – the overall AutoIndex. index shows Q3 2017’s vehicle production value
Strategy& | PwC 4 Off the back of significant demand for premium Exhibit 4 British-made cars, a record number of cars were UK automotive market production exported in 2016. As long as potential disruption Thousands of vehicles from the UK’s referendum vote to leave the -4 1 European Union is minimised, this increased 17 3 1, 41 1,574 1,588 1,7231, 52 demand, supported by Brexit-induced sterling 1,55 1,578 1,447 1,443 depreciation should continue to boost UK automotive 1,29 1,3 7 1,000 manufacturing – November 2017 saw 137.2K vehicle 924 exports, compared to 135.5K in November 2017.
1) This has been estimated based on the difference between September 2016 and 2017 production figures Sources : ONS, SMMT, Driven Data, Strategy& analysis
£ #3.1 – Market capitalisation of automotive companies active in the UK
The market capitalisation of automotive companies The make-up of companies in the UK differs from active in the UK (component manufacturers, other countries. Much of the market capitalisation in insurance companies, downstream retail companies the UK comes from insurance companies, whereas in and breakdown companies) has increased by 265% Germany the majority comes from manufacturers. since 2009, and is at near record-high levels (see Exhibit 5). Over the past 12 months, it has increased by 3%, with a minor drop Q2-Q3 2017.
Exhibit 5 Market capitalisation of automotive activities* £ bn, end of each quarter/year**
12 7 38 5 5 7 a a t rer 29 29 28 27 28 28 ra e 27 27 2 eta er 24 25 20 20 20 20 *Companies in index: Aviva, GKN, Inchcape, Lookers, Ricardo, Lucas 17 (from 1980-1990), Pendragon (from 12 13 13 1990), Admiral Group (from 2008), 11 12 10 Vertu Motors (from 2008), Direct Line (from Q4 2012), Auto Trader 7 Group (from Q1 2015), Marshall Motor Holdings (from Q2 2015) 2 **Numbers may not sum due to rounding Sources: Datastream, Strategy& analysis
Strategy& | PwC 5 Summary
The UK automotive sector, one of the country’s current Astra) recently announced that a total of undoubted success stories, has enjoyed sustained 650 jobs are being cut, and proposed that the site and strong growth for several years. However, the moves to a single shift pattern from 2018, roughly Q2-Q3 2017 dip in the Strategy& AutoIndex is a halving the number of cars produced there. warning sign. Despite 2016’s record high vehicle Vauxhall has cited high costs in comparison to production and export levels, the uncertainty French manufacturing sites as a reason, and its surrounding Brexit appears to be filtering through nervousness is perhaps indicative of a wider worry to the automotive sector. November 2017’s car among British car manufacturers of high tariffs or production levels were lower than those in trade barriers resulting from Brexit. November 2016, and 2016’s total UK automotive investment – £1.66bn – is significantly below the The Brexit negotiations will be the key determinant £2.5bn seen in 2015. One further example of this of future short-term trajectory. Stay tuned to future is Vauxhall, whose Ellesmere Port (producing the AutoIndex editions to read how this plays out.
Challenge Change
UK AutoIndex Q2-Q3 2017 144 UK automotive market value 122 Automotive sales 48 Turnover new vehicles 84
Automotive production 50 Margin used vehicles 9 Market capitalisation 46 Parts, maintenance, and repair 18 Value added in financing and used sales 10
UK automotive Market capitalisation production value 59 of activities 28 Vehicle production 49 Manufacturers 3
Parts production 10 Insurance 17
UK Automotive production 1,723 Retailers 8
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