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The Arab Uprisings: Accomplishments, Failures and Prospects

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The Arab Uprisings: Accomplishments, Failures and Prospects Conference Report The Arab Uprisings: Accomplishments, Failures and Prospects Friday, November 15, 2013 Convened at the Castle at Boston University Boston, MA 02215 Presented by: Boston University Institute for the Study of Muslim Societies & Civilizations Boston University Center for International Relations & Trans-Arab Research Institute (TARI) With Support from: Harvard University Center for Middle Eastern Studies Conference Report Editor: Louise Klann Associate Editor: Martha Lagace Rapporteurs: Louise Klann, Martha Lagace, Shree Chudasama, Claire Councilman, Shanti Kapoor, Alexandra Neenan, Sarah Manely 1 Conference Objectives Sober assessments of reality have replaced the initial exuberance greeting the Arab transformations that began in early 2011, said co-chair Augustus R. Norton in his opening remarks. This conference was designed to gather scholars from across the world in order to identify impediments to change as well as points of progress in the Middle East. As fellow co-chair Hani Faris observed, scholars failed to predict the coming of the Arab Uprisings and have not fared any better in explaining their causes, dynamics, accomplishments and prospects since their outbreak. Indeed, the sweeping events are still not easy to define. Did demonstrations and subsequent developments constitute a Spring, a revolution, an “epidemic,” or an “awakening”? Two features remain clear, said Faris. First was the participation of large segments of the population: the mass-based nature of a phenomenon touching all Arab countries without exception. It was the largest demonstration of political protest in human history— affecting countries as diverse as Djibouti, Mauritania, Iraq, and Egypt. Second was the Arab world events’ clear rejection of existing modes of governance. The demonstrators rejected authoritarian rule. As scholars we need to respond seriously and thoughtfully to the human clamor for freedom and justice, Faris continued. We must acknowledge the sheer courage of the demonstrators whose actions put an end to an intellectually bankrupt thesis called "Arab Exceptionalism". “These were authentic and popular movements. They were spontaneous national eruptions, although they have not remained solely national nor solely Arab as was the case with Libya, and Syria today. But not only that. We also see an interdependence and connectedness between them. Foreign interventions in the Arab uprisings have had primarily negative consequences and helped radicalize conflicts. They distorted the initial impulse for reform. Moreover, international actors continue to pursue the same destructive policies. Both co-chairs expressed the hope that the conference will inform future insights into otherwise hard-to-decipher internal and external dimensions of the uprisings. All transformations take time, added Faris: Despite worrisome trends, in the long run the uprisings may lead to more democratic conditions for people in the Middle East and Arab countries. Area experts with considerable time “on the ground” participated in panels and informal discussions in order to offer a realistic perspective on this socio-political evolution. Participants took a clear-eyed view of the uprisings’ achievements as well as political entrenchment and backsliding. While the experience of each country is inevitably different, the conference traced commonalities in the struggle to recapture political order, address economic distress, and redefine national identities in the midst of continuing political and societal strife. Specific attention was devoted to the role of youth, women, external actors, and the old guard in the post- revolutionary context. While panelists agreed that the Arab uprisings have significantly changed the socio-political landscape in the Middle East, there was also consensus that the revolution is not close to being over and that many dynamics remain troubling: the resiliency of the patrimonial “deep state,” blurred boundaries between internal and international conflict, and halting progress toward freedom and dignity. 1 Focusing on these issues, “The Arab Uprisings: Accomplishments, Failures and Prospects,” was held at the Castle at Boston University in Boston, Massachusetts on Friday, November 15, 2013. 2 Participants Ali Abdullatif Ahmida Professor, Department of Political Science, University of New England Gilbert Achcar Professor of Development Studies and International Relations, University of London; Chair, Centre for Palestine Studies, University of London Ghanim Al-Najjar Professor, Department of Political Science, Kuwait University Betty S. Anderson Associate Professor, Department of History, Boston University Sadek Jalal al-‘Azm Professor Emeritus, Modern European Philosophy, University of Damascus Melani Cammett Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Brown University Seif Da’Na Associate Professor, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Wisconsin- Parkside Farouk El-Baz Director, Center for Remote Sensing, Boston University Tamirace Fakhoury Assistant Professor, Political Sciences and International Affairs, Lebanese American University Leila Farsakh Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts-Boston Hani Faris President, Board of Directors; Trans-Arab Research Institute (TARI); Adjunct Professor, Department of Political Science, University of British Colombia Amr Hamzawy Founder, Freedom Egypt Party; Former Member, Egyptian People’s Assembly; Professor, Department of Public Policy and Administration, American University in Cairo, and Department of Political Science, Cairo University Mujid S. Kazimi 3 Professor of Nuclear Engineering and Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Director, Kuwait MIT Center for Natural Resources and the Environment Dr. Haytham Manna Human rights activist and Deputy Chairman of the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change & the Chairman of its network in the Diaspora. M. Chloe Mulderig PhD candidate, Department of Anthropology, Boston University Caryle Murphy Pulitzer Prize-winner for international reporting for the Washington Post; independent journalist and book author Augustus Richard Norton Professor, Department of International Relations and Anthropology, Boston University E. Roger Owen A.J. Meyer Professor of Middle East History, Department of History, Harvard University Faculty, Center for Middle Eastern Studies, Harvard University Ambassador Robert H. Pelletreau Former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain; former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Hugh Roberts Edward Keller Professor of North African and Middle Eastern History, Tufts University Denis Sullivan Professor, Political Science, International Affairs, and Middle East Studies, Northeastern University 4 Summary of Conference Proceedings Session I: In Quest of Freedom & Dignity The first session of the day defined freedom and dignity in broad terms. Panelists Haytham Manna, Amr Hamzawy, and Melani Cammett warned of excessive militarization in Syria and Egypt. The scholars identified patrimonialism and over-centralized governance as major challenges to achieving political and economic freedom. The decline of the middle class, cuts in public services, corrupt elections, and the lack of institutional development all warrant concern about the viability of democratic change. Overall, panelists challenged the audience to confront worrisome realities as well as trends in public mood in North Africa and the Middle East about the difficulties of achieving freedom and dignity politically, socially, and economically. The first speaker, Haytham Manna, began by discussing his vision for a “Road Map for a Political Solution in Syria.” Given the ongoing political and humanitarian crisis in Syria, in which more than 100,000 people have been killed and nine million displaced since March 2011, Manna outlined steps taken toward a potential political settlement and an end to the crisis. First was the Geneva Communiqué issued in Switzerland on June 30, 2012 by the United Nations- supported Action Group for Syria. The Communiqué contained “the best possible text regarding the Syrian conflict,” he said, adding however that “already the Syrian question was being internationalized.” He said a subsequent attempt to organize a conference on civil states was halted by foreign affairs ministers, whom he did not identify. Manna would like to see broad emphasis on human rights and building “institutional democracy” that would include parliamentary elections. Manna’s chief concerns were instituting a program of arms control and facilitating the departure of Syrian president Bashar al-Asad through democratic change. Referring several times to “the real majority” of Syrian society, Manna said that a United Nations resolution should prohibit non-Syrian fighters within the country. “We must stop the augmentation of violence,” he said. Asked by one conference participant whether the UN Security Council would call on armed foreigners to leave Syria, Manna replied that Russia and China have only agreed to the proposal while the United States and United Kingdom have agreed to this idea in principle only. Egyptian political scientist Amr Hamzawy spoke on “Democracy in Egypt: Can We Still Hope?” Focusing on five specific problems, Hamzawy expressed grave concern that Egypt is “backsliding” on a democratic transition that began in 2011. The first problem: Egypt contends with an entrenched military-security apparatus that has penetrated state and
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