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Taupo District,European and Māori2001 (Unshaded Bars)And 2013(Shaded

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Taupo District,European and Māori2001 (Unshaded Bars)And 2013(Shaded Age and Ethnic Structure NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 4 Taupo District, June 2014 With around 17 per cent aged 65+ years in 2013, the The graphs also show how each population has aged population of the Taupo District is older than the national structurally since 2001 (unshaded bars), due to the average of 14.2 per cent, although is around the middle of declining birth rates, increasing longevity, and net the distribution in terms of the nation’s TAs. However age migration loss at the key reproductive ages already structures also differ markedly by ethnic group. Figure 7 discussed. Particularly notable is the migration-driven compares the age structures of the Taupo District’s deficit at 20-34 years of age for the district’s European- European and Ma ori populations (see Notes), which origin population. The Taupo District is also somewhat TAUPO DISTRICT - KEY DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS account for just on 66 and 24 per cent of the total less multi-ethnic than is the case nationally, with just 2.2 (compared with 65 and 13 per cent nationally). In 2013 per cent Pacific Island, 2.9 per cent Asian, 0.4 per cent Natalie Jackson the median age for the district’s Ma ori population was 26 Middle Eastern/Latin American/African, and 4.7 per cent Inside this issue: years (that is, one-half of the Ma ori population was aged ‘not identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per Taupo District: Population Size and Growth less than 26 years), compared with 43 years for European. cent respectively at national level. Components of 2 The population of the Taupo District has grown slowly but steadily over the past twenty- Change by Figure 7: Age structure: Taupo District, European and Māori 2001 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars) seven years, from 29,027 in 1986 to 34,400 in 2013 (+18.5 per cent) (Figure 1). The Component Flow European population is projected to continue to grow slowly over the next two decades with the Taupo District has Mäori Migration by Age 2 85+ 85+ NIDEA medium case projections indicating a population of around 37,012 by 2033 (+8.4 an older than aver- 80-84 80-84 75-79 75-79 per cent), but peaking around 2035 and declining to 31,274 by 2063. The high case age age structure, 70-74 70-74 65-69 65-69 projections would see growth sustained for longer, numbers peaking around 2046, while but, as elsewhere, 60-64 60-64 Taupo’s Movers and 3 55-59 55-59 the low projections see peak population occur around 2021. These trends are the outcome the population of 50-54 50-54 Stayers 45-49 45-49 of population ageing. Males 40-44 Males 40-44 Females European origin is 35-39 Females 35-39 Age Group(years) Age Age Group (years)GroupAge 30-34 30-34 relatively old, and 25-29 25-29 Population Ageing 3 20-24 20-24 Figure 1: Population of Taupo District 1986-2011 and projected to 2063 that of Māori origin, 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 extremely young. 5-9 5-9 ERP NIDEA Low NIDEA Medium NIDEA High 0-4 0-4 Age and Ethnic 4 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 45,000 Percentage at each age group Percentage at each age group 41,168 Structure 40,000 34,400 Source: Statistics New Zealand, Area of Usual Residence (2001, 2006 and 2013) and Ethnic Group (Total Responses) by Age (Five Year Groups) and Sex For the census usually resident population count 35,000 Notes: *Statistics New Zealand's Multiple Count method of enumeration means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group 31,274 Summary 4 30,000 The population of the Taupo District has grown numbers of children. At the same time the District 25,000 slowly but steadily over the past 27 years, from has recently experienced gains at 25-39 years, and 20,000 23,788 Number 29,027 in 1986 to 34,400 in 2013 (+18.5 per cent) also at 60+ years. The trends have resulted in the 15,000 Under the medium case assumptions, the population Taupo District’s population having an older than 10,000 is projected to grow slowly to approximately 37,012 average age structure, but at TA level it still falls in 5,000 by 2033 (+8.4 per cent), all of the growth occurring the middle of the national distribution, and is only at 65+ years, with decline at all ages below 54 years. the fourth-oldest of the Waikato Region’s ten TAs. 0 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2052 2055 2058 The major cause of the district’s growth has long Mover and Stayer data from the 2013 Census 2061 been natural increase, with net migration loss a indicate that around 61 per cent of those Source: 1986-2013 Statistics NZ Estimated Resident Population (ERP); 2013-2063 NIDEA consistent feature. As elsewhere, however, growth at enumerated as living in Taupo on Census night 2013 National Institute of Summary 65+ years will increasingly drive population growth had been living there in 2008, very similar to the Demographic and Components of Change Economic Analysis as the baby boomer cohorts (born 1946-65) move proportion at each of the previous three Censuses. The major component of Figure 2: Components of change: Taupo District (NIDEA) into the 65+ age groups and numbers rise due to Auckland typically accounts for Taupo’s largest gains the Taupo District’s increasing longevity. Eventually, the same cohorts and losses of internal migrants, while Rotorua, Faculty of Arts & Social growth has consistently Natural Increase Estimated Net Migration Net Change Sciences, will drive the end of natural growth, as deaths will Hamilton, Tauranga and South Waikato feature 500 been natural increase (the University of Waikato increase and will not be replaced by births. This shift prominently. 400 difference between births 300 Private Bag 3105 will result in population decline, most likely The Taupo District has double the national average and deaths), augmented 200 Hamilton 3240, beginning between 2035 and 2046. 100 New Zealand of Ma ori, and smaller proportions of those of Pacific by occasional bursts of - Like many of its more rural counterparts, the Taupo Island, Asian, or Latin American/African origin. The net migration gain -100 Phone: Number District experiences an ongoing problem in terms of relative youth of the District’s Ma ori population has (Figure 2). Significant net -200 07 838 4040 net migration loss at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age. the potential to benefit from a forthcoming -300 migration loss occurred -400 March Years June Years E-mail: Net migration gains at several older ages partially economic advantage, as the older European between 1998 and 2001 -500 [email protected] offsets that loss, but is not a perfect substitute population disproportionately enters retirement, and again between 2004 1992 1993-94 1996-97 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2006-07 2009-10 2011-12 1992-93 1994-95 1995-96 1997-98 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 because the sustained loss at young adult ages and the number of labour force entrants per ‘exit’ and 2008, with that loss 1999-2000 ISSN 2382-039X Taupo District compounds over time to reduce the primary declines. completely offsetting (Print) Source: Compiled from Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare reproductive age group (20-39 years), and thus the natural increase between ISSN 2382-0403 2007 and 2008. Natural increase is now reducing as the population ages and larger (Online) References: Jackson, N.O. and Pawar , S. (2013a). A Demographic Accounting Model for New Zealand. Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi: proportions are reaching the ages at which they no longer have children. Regional Impacts of Demographic and Economic Change – 2013-2014. MBIE-funded project . National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato, Hamilton. NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 4 P a g e 2 P a g e 3 NIDEA DemographicTAUPO SnapshotDISTRICT -No. K E Y4 Taupo District, June 2014 TaupoDEMOGRAPHIC District, June TRENDS 2014 Components of Change by Component Flow Taupo’s Movers and Stayers Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’ for component of migration, which we call the ‘residual’ Data from the 2013 Census Leavers: The TAs of Figure 5: Taupo’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013 (Jackson & Pawar 2013a), the broad components of the component (+712 people enumerated as moving to the indicate that almost 61 per destination for those who Taupo District’s population change can be broken down Region between 2008 and 2013, but their 2008 origin is cent of those enumerated as had been living in the Taupo into their underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between unknown). The model further disaggregates each known living in the Taupo District District in 2008 but were 2008 and 2013, the Taupo District grew by approximately net migration component into its respective inflows and on Census night 2013 (March living elsewhere at the 2013 1,000 persons. Natural increase (births minus deaths) outflows (5,118 internal immigrants and 5,148 internal 5th) had been living there in Census are similar to those accounted for 1,044 persons, slightly reduced by an emigrants; 1,922 PLT international immigrants and 2,648 2008.
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