less than 26 years), compared with 43 years for European. European. for years 43 with compared years), 26 than less one is, (that years 26 was population ori Ma district’s the for 2013 age median In the nationally). cent per 13 and which 65 with (compared Notes), o District’s just (see for Taupo populations account the ori Ma of and structures European age the compares 7 Figure group. ethnic by markedly differ also structures age However TAs. nation’s the of terms in distribution the of middle the around is although cent, per the 14.2 of average 2013, in years national the than older 65+ is District Taupo the aged of population cent per 17 around With Age and Ethnic Structure Ethnic Age and extremely young. extremely origin, thatMāori of and old, relatively originis European populationof the but, aselsewhere, structure,age age anolderthan aver- District hasTaupo

Summary compounds over time to reduce the primary primary the reduce to (20 ages group age reproductive time adult young over substitute at perfect compounds loss a sustained not the is because but loss, that partially offsets ages older several at gains migration Net 15 at loss migration net of terms in problem ongoing an experiences District likely Taupo the counterparts, rural more most its of many Like decline, population in 2046. beginningand 2035 between result will shift This births. by replaced be not will and increase will deaths as growth, natural of end the drive cohorts will same the to Eventually, due rise longevity. numbers increasing and groups age 65+ the into 1946 (born cohorts boomer baby the as growth population drive increasingly will years 65+ a loss migration at net growth however, elsewhere, As feature. consistent with increase, long has natural growth been district’s the of cause major The years. ages below 54 all decline at with 65+ years, at occurring growth the of all cent), per (+8.4 2033 by 37,012 approximately to slowly grow to projected is population the assumptions, case medium the Under cent) from per (+18.5 years, 2013 in 27 34,400 to 1986 past in 29,027 the grown over has steadily District but Taupo slowly the of population The Economic Analysis,University of ,Hamilton. RegionalImpacts Demographic of and Economic Change References:

- half of the Ma ori population was aged aged was population ori Ma the of half n 66 and 24 per cent of the the of cent per 24 and 66 n

Jackson, N.O. and Pawar S. , (2013a).A Demographic Accounting Model for NewZealand. Figure7: Agestructure: Taupo District,European and Māori2001 (unshaded bars)and 2013(shaded

Source: Statistics and Sex YearFor the by (Five Age Groups) census Area New of Zealand, Usual 2006 and Residence and Responses) Ethnic(2001, 2013) (Total Group usually resident population usually countresident population Notes: *StatisticsNotes: Multiple Count ofNew method Zealand's enumeration thatmeans may be countedpeople in thanmore ethnicone group Age Group (years)

80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-9 0-4

85+

7.0

European - 19 and 20 and 19 Males -

5.0 39 years), and thus the the thus and years), 39

Percentage at each age groupage each at Percentage

3.0

- 24 years of age. age. of years 24

1.0 total total -

1.0 65) move move 65)

–

3.0

2013 ‘not identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per per level. 4.9 national at respectively cent and 1.0 10.1, 6.3, with compared identified’, ‘not cent cent per per 0.4 4.7 and Asian, American/African, Eastern/Latin cent Middle per 2.9 Island, Pacific cent per also multi is less District Taupo The population. origin already migration 20 the ages at deficit net is reproductive notable and key Particularly the discussed. longevity, at the increasing loss to migration rates, due birth bars), aged (unshaded declining has 2001 population each since how structurally show also graphs The

5.0 -

2014. MBIE ‘exit’ European per declines. entrants force labour older of forthcoming retirement, number the and the enters a disproportionately as from population benefit advantage, to economic potential the has population ori Ma District’s the of youth relative The origin. American/African Latin or Asian, Island, Pacific of those of proportions smaller and ori, Maof average national the double has District Taupo The feature Waikato South Rotorua, prominently. while and migrants, internal Hamilton, of losses and those gains largest Taupo’s for accounts typically Censuses. three previous the of of each at proportion cent 2008, in there per living been had 61 Census 2013 2013 night around Census on Taupo in living as enumerated the that from data indicate Stayer and Mover only the fourth is and distribution, national the of middle the in falls still it than level TA at older but structure, age an average having population the District’s in resulted Taupo have trends The years. 60+ at also 25 at gains experienced recently District has the time same the At children. of numbers

7.0 Females - ethnic than is the case nationally, with just 2.2 2.2 just with nationally, case the is than ethnic -

Age Group (years) - funded project . National Instituteof Demographic and 4 er o ae o te itits European district’s the for age of years 34

80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-9 0-4

85+ - oldest of the Waikato Region’s ten TAs. TAs. Region’s ten Waikato the oldest of

7.0

Mäori

Males

5.0

Percentage at each ageeachgroup atPercentage

3.0

1.0 Nga Tangata Mairangi: Oho

1.0 very similar to the the to similar very

3.0 - 39 years, and and years, 39

5.0 somewhat somewhat

7.0 Females bars) - driven driven

- Components of Change Components

Source: Source: 1986-2013 Statistics NZ Estimated Resident2013-2063 (ERP); Population NIDEA of population ageing. of population outcome the are trends These 2021. around occur population peak see while projections low 2046, the around peaking numbers longer, for sustained growth see would projections peaking but (+8.4 2033 cent), by the 37,012 per with around The decades of population two 1). a next indicating (Figure the projections cent) over case medium per slowly NIDEA grow (+18.5 to 2013 continue in to 34,400 projected is to population 1986 in 29,027 from twenty years, past the seven over steadily but slowly grown has District Taupo the of population The Growth and Size Population District: Taupo Natalie Jackson Natalie 2007 and 2008. Natural increase is now reducing as the population ages and larger larger and ages population the as reducing now is increase Natural 2008. and 2007 offsetting between increase natural completely loss that with 2008, and 2004 between again and 2001 and 1998 between occurred loss gain migration net Significant 2). migration (Figure of net bursts occasional by augmented deaths), and births between difference District’s been consistently has Taupo growth the of component major The T C I R T S I D O P U A T Figure1: Population of Taupo District 1986

natural increase Number

45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000

5,000 proportions are reaching the ages at which they no longer have children. have children. no longer they which ages at the reaching are proportions

0

1986 ERP 1989

1992 (the 1995

1998 case high The 2063. by 31,274 to declining and 2035 around Source: fromCompiled Statistics Infoshare , Figure2: Components of change: DistrictTaupo

NIDEA NIDEA Low Number 2001 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 100 200 300 400 500 2004 -

2007

34,400

1992 -

March Years March 2010 1992-93 2013 S D N E R T C I H P A R G O M E D Y E K - Natural Increase Natural 2011andprojected to 2063 1993-94 2016

1994-95 2019

1995-96 2022 NIDEA Medium

1996-97 2025 June Years June

1997-98 2028 2031 1998-99 2034 1999-2000 Migration Net Estimated 2037

2000-01 Taupo District 2040 2001-02

2043 2002-03 2046

2003-04 2049 High NIDEA 2004-05 2052 2005-06 2055 NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No.4 NIDEA Demographic Snapshot 2006-07 2058

41,168

31,274

23,788 2007-08 Change Net 2061

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11 Taupo District, June 2014Taupo

2011-12 -

2012-13 Inside Inside this issue: Summary Structure Ethnicand Age Ageing Population Stayers Movers andTaupo’s Age by Migration Flow Component byChange Componentsof

(Online) ISSN2382 (Print) ISSN2382 [email protected] E 07838 4040 Phone: NewZealand Hamilton3240, PrivateBag 3105 University of Waikato Sciences, Faculty of &Arts Social (NIDEA) EconomicAnalysis Demographicand NationalInstitute of - mail:

- - 0403 0403 039X

4 4 3 3 2 2

NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 4 P a g e 2 P a g e 3 NIDEA DemographicTAUPO SnapshotDISTRICT -No. K E Y4 Taupo District, June 2014 TaupoDEMOGRAPHIC District, June TRENDS 2014

Components of Change by Component Flow Taupo’s Movers and Stayers Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’ for component of migration, which we call the ‘residual’ Data from the 2013 Census Leavers: The TAs of Figure 5: Taupo’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013 (Jackson & Pawar 2013a), the broad components of the component (+712 people enumerated as moving to the indicate that almost 61 per destination for those who Taupo District’s population change can be broken down Region between 2008 and 2013, but their 2008 origin is cent of those enumerated as had been living in the Taupo into their underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between unknown). The model further disaggregates each known living in the Taupo District District in 2008 but were 2008 and 2013, the Taupo District grew by approximately net migration component into its respective inflows and on Census night 2013 (March living elsewhere at the 2013 1,000 persons. Natural increase (births minus deaths) outflows (5,118 internal immigrants and 5,148 internal 5th) had been living there in Census are similar to those accounted for 1,044 persons, slightly reduced by an emigrants; 1,922 PLT international immigrants and 2,648 2008. At the 2013 Census, for arrivals, the single-largest estimated net migration loss of 44 persons. The PLT international emigrants). The overall picture is one of those who had not been born proportion of leavers having natural increase component was in turn comprised of considerable ‘churn’, generated by large numbers of in 2008 accounted for the gone to Auckland (3.4 per 2,396 births partially offset by 1,352 deaths. From leavers and arrivals relative to the net outcome. Data for single largest component of cent), followed by Hamilton estimated net migration we then account for ‘known’ net the 1996-2001 and 2001-2006 periods are available from arrivals (7.2 per cent), City (1.8 per cent), Tauranga migration (-756), comprised of net internal migration (- NIDEA (see also Jackson with Pawar 92013b). followed by those ‘not City (1.5 per cent) and 30) and net international permanent/long term (PLT) NB. The 2008-2013 period reflects the impact of the elsewhere included’ (5.8 per Rotorua (1.3 per cent). migration (-726). This leaves an unaccounted delayed census. cent), ‘those living elsewhere Between 2008 and 2013, The patterns have been Figure 3: Components flows - Taupo District 2008-2013 in NZ but not further defined’ the Taupo District grew by (5.4 per cent), and those who remarkably consistent over around 1,000 people but were ‘overseas in 2008’ (5.3 time, with the proportion NET CHANGE in Estimated Population Start 33,400 34,400 End experienced considerably remaining in the district (ERP - ERP ) per cent). The next largest 2008 2013 greater population ‘churn’, +1,000 +3.0% contingent of arrivals were between Censuses ranging generated by relatively internal migrants from from 58 per cent (1996- large numbers of leavers NATURAL INCREASE ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION Auckland (3.0 per cent), 2001) to 61 per cent (2008- and arrivals. (Births - Deaths) + followed by Rotorua District 2013), and Auckland, +1,044 +104.4% -44 -4.4% (1.3 per cent), Hamilton City Rotorua, Hamilton and (0.8 per cent) and Tauranga Tauranga consistently in the NET KNOWN MIGRATION Residual Component of Migration top 4-8 TAs of both origin Births Deaths City (0.7 per cent). (Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration) Estimated Net Migration - Net Known Migration) and destination. Another TA 2,396 +239.6% 1,352 -135.2% -756 -75.6% +712 +71.2% The past four censuses indicate to feature consistently as that between 58 and 61 per cent both an origin and of people enumerated as living Net Internal Migration Net PLT Migration destination for Taupo’s + in the Taupo District at each -30 -3.0% -726 -72.6% movers is the South Waikato census had been living in the District. District five years previously. Internal In-migrants Internal Out-migrants PLT Arrivals PLT Departures

+5,118 +511.8% - -5,148 -514.8% +1,922 +192.2% -2,648 -264.8% Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/ various sources Population Ageing Migration by Age As elsewhere, declining birth rates, Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age group Fig 4 shows that the Taupo District Figure 4: Net migration age profile - Taupo District 1996-01, 2001-06, 2008-13 increasing longevity, and—in experiences consistent net migration 0-14 years 300 Taupo’s case—net migration loss at loss at 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24 years of 140 young adult ages, are causing the 15-24 years age. Between 2008 and 2013 net loss 200 120 population to age structurally. 100

2031 25-39 years also occurred of people aged in their ‘40s 100 - Between 2011 and 2031, numbers and early ‘50s. However across both the 80 0 for all age groups below 54 years are 60 40-54 years 2001-2006 and 2008-2013 periods, the -100 projected to decline, and those at 65+ 40 district enjoyed small net gains at 0-4, 1996-2001 55-64 years Number years to increase significantly (Figure 20 25-39 and 60+ years, indicating the net -200 2001-2006 6). By 2031, 27.3 per cent of the 0 65-74 years arrival of young families and those of -300 -20 2008-2013 population of the Taupo District is 2011 Change, Percentage 75-84 years retirement age. Underlying data from the -400 -40 demographic accounting model shows projected to be aged 65+ years, up Taupo District Waikato Region New Zealand

that all age groups saw both internal and -500 from 15.6 per cent in 2011. However 85+ years

0-4 90+

5-9 Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update) 85-89

10-14 Taupo is only the fourth-oldest of

15-19 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 international (PLT) arrivals and 20-24 departures, with international Age Group Waikato Region’s ten TAs. Figure 6 shows that the trends for Taupo District are not that different to those for either the immigrants increasingly prominent at Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources Waikato or total New Zealand, both of which are also projected to experience the vast majority of their growth to 2031 60-69 years of age. at 65+ years. The Taupo District can expect to have more elderly than children by 2021, around five years earlier than for the Waikato Region and total New Zealand.