- Insights ▷ February 2018

VOLUME 72 - 2018 February

Saving Lives – Seconds to Success

The Synergia Foundation is in collaboration with the Bangalore City Police, the Railway Police Force, The Fire and Home Guards and ELCITA (The Electronic City Industrial Township Authority) and NPA (the National Police Academy)...

US blocks The Syrian China, again dilemma

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Doctors in the Ghouta region of Commission (SEC) has barred the have been forced to use proposed sale of the Chicago Stock expired drugs on their patients Exchange to a group of Chinese-led as relentless airstrikes have investors. continued over the region in the span of 48 hours.

The new South Netanyahu's African cabinet legacy New South African President Israeli police have recommended Cyril Ramaphosa reshuffled his indicting Prime Minister Benjamin cabinet on Monday. Ramaphosa Netanyahu in connection to two was sworn in earlier this month corruption cases. after former president Zuma stepped down.

Palestine Will India requests Russia intervene in to take over Maldives?

Palestinian President Mahmoud As a political and constitutional Abbas is expected to request crisis continues to unfold in Russia to help form an international Maldives, the opposition has multilateral mechanism. requested India to intervene against President Yameen.1 - Insights ▷ February 2018

spaces like railway stations, airports, malls etc. The training also helped officers understand the gaps that existed in training modules.

Assessment

Our assessment is that such training is extremely important, to prepare first responders to meet security challenges. We feel most security officers do not wish to face such eventualities as they fear for their lives – understandably so. Techniques like OTR will give more confidence to police officers on the street to tackle adversaries with or without a firearm. We believe such training will help security forces to best utilize the gear they already have and not waste resources in buying additional firearms. Saving Lives – Seconds to Success

The Synergia Foundation is in collaboration with the Bangalore City Police, the Railway Police Force, The Fire and Home Guards & ELCITA (The Electronic City Industrial Township Authority) and NPA (the National Police Academy) to organize a series of tactical training workshops on an innovative technique to counter various asymmetric threats that cities like Bangalore may face. Background US blocks China, again Police and security personnel have generally been trained on conventional tactics for dealing with criminals, but the threat of terrorist attacks on “soft targets” in The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has barred civilian environments under the spotlight of the media, is a completely different the proposed sale of the Chicago Stock Exchange to a group of threat vector. Chinese-led investors. In recent months, the US has consistently blocked nearly all proposed sales of US companies to Chinese Traditional policing tactics of 'contain and assess' turns fatal and bloody. The new buyers. terror threats, requires an immediate transformation in security training methods. Most firearms and tactical certifications of police, LE and security forces were Background designed long ago, based on the old outdated concepts to control ‘traditional’ The United States and China are the two largest economies in the world. Both criminal acts. countries consider the other as a partner in trade and an adversary in geopolitics. Diplomatic relations between the US and China was first established in 1844 with The “paper-target” syndrome is precarious and inaccurate. It creates a false sense of the Treaty of Wanghia. This agreement allowed the US to trade in Chinese ports. proficiency. Defeating urban terror requires speed, aggressiveness and an offensive After the Qing Dynasty was overthrown, in 1911, US recognized the legitimacy of the mindset. Tactics adopted by the army, designed for large-scale conflicts cannot be Republic of China (ROC) government. adopted to remediate such threats as the focus is on speed and the right selection of targets. As witnessed in Mumbai, Paris, Brussels, or Dhaka, the intervention by The two countries have established a robust framework of trade. Currently, the US- Special Forces or SWAT may be far too late. The key to minimize casualty is to react China trade relationship supports around 2.6 million jobs in the United States. In decisively with an offensive mindset. 2015, China purchased $165 billion in goods and services from the United States. After Japan, China is the biggest overseas creditor to the US. Its holdings of US debt Terrorism in the 21st century has metamorphosed - it is aimed at destroying come to around $1.12 trillion dollars. countries, cultures, or all of humanity. Security practitioners have begun to articulate in the past few years a new paradigm for terrorism that includes different In September 2017, the US administration played a direct role in blocking the sales actors, motivations and outcomes from the old paradigm of political terrorism of of American companies to Chinese conglomerates. News emerged that US President the mid-20th century. Donald Trump blocked the sale of an American technology company called Lattice Semiconductor to a Chinese-backed organization called Canyon Bridge Capital Offensive Tactical Response Partners, LLC.

OTR is a set of techniques that empower first responders and law enforcement Chicago Stock Exchange officers to meet asymmetric threats which can occur at the most unexpected time and location. Founded in 1882, the Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX) is a national securities The training exchange and Self-Regulatory Organization, which operates under the oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The five day training focused on imparting crucial insights on taking decisions while in motion. The idea was to help create a tactical advantage by using elements Analysis of physics and gravity. Governments and business enterprises always work to develop tactics – the objective is to create an advantage. In the world of security, On December 2016, a U.S. panel that examined foreign deals for potential national tactics means saving lives more importantly saving blood. The tactical expert from security concerns cleared the purchase of the Chicago Stock Exchange by a China- Switzerland Reuven Werthiemer demonstrated several skills, both offense and led group of investors. However, since then, the SEC has stalled the progress of the defense, that could save hundreds of lives in industrial establishments , public sale. The group of investors that own the Chicago Exchange even came out with 2 - Insights ▷ February 2018 - Insights ▷ February 2018

a statement noting, “Since the SEC staff’s approval, the SEC Commissioners have The majority-Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in the North and East of the continued to delay taking a vote, using a rule that circumvents the congressionally country, are backed by the US in the fight against the Islamic State. However, Turkey imposed 240-day deadline for a decision, leaving the deal in indefinite limbo. This has expressed displeasure with the Kurdish presence at their border and entered acquisition would provide vital capital to the Exchange, which would be used to North-western Syria to attack a Kurdish militia in January. Turkey is an ally in the boost numerous initiatives designed to benefit the city of Chicago, and the U.S. fight against ISIL. economy and market structure as a whole.” Iran, Russia and Hezbollah support the Syrian government militarily, while beginning in 2014, a coalition of NATO countries began launching airstrikes against ISIL. On February 2018, it was confirmed that the SEC was barring the sale from taking place. The SEC has cited a number of security concerns with regards to whether the deal would allow it to supervise the exchange properly. "The review process has Analysis also raised questions about whether the proposed ownership structure will allow the commission to exercise sufficient oversight of the exchange" the SEC said on In February 2018, airstrikes over Ghouta in Syria increased. Within the span of 48 Thursday. hours, at least 250 have been reportedly killed. Young children are among those who were killed, and reports have stated that hospitals seemed to be the target of The latest news comes just a few weeks after the US blocked a potential deal between the airstrikes. Chinese tech giant Huawei and US carrier AT&T in a bid to sell Huawei phones in the US. Most recently, six heads of US intelligence bodies warned Americans against “The airstrikes, the rockets, the artillery and the bombing haven't stopped in three using Huawei products as they believed it would compromise security. Intelligence days,” said one doctor in the enclave who asked to be identified only by his first agencies have also warned of Chinese spies infiltrating the US through universities. name, Sakher. “We are lacking everything - no medicine, medical equipment and not enough doctors," the orthopedic surgeon told NBC News in a telephone The Chicago Exchange has not publicly commented on the latest development. interview Wednesday. "But there is also not enough food. Those who survive the Some US lawmakers have however welcomed the news. "This has been a long bombing will not survive for a long time because of lack of food.” fight, and I'm grateful we now have a president who recognizes the national security threats of allowing a Chinese government-affiliated company to own the Chicago According to a report from CNN, doctors have been forced to use expired drugs on Stock Exchange," Republican Congressman Robert Pittenger said in a statement. their patients as the death toll reached 300. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres Assessment described the situation as "hell on Earth." He told the UN Security Council, “I believe Eastern Ghouta cannot wait. This is a human tragedy that is unfolding in front of our Our assessment is that the US is clearly concerned over the growth of China’s eyes and I don't think we can let things go on happening in this horrendous way.” global influence. It is also indicative of the uneasy relationship between the US and China regarding trade. Other sales that are currently threatened by the political The UN has also stated that at least 400,000 people are trapped in Eastern Ghouta climate include the China Oceanwide Holdings Group's $2.7 billion purchase of US with many being in need of humanitarian aid. Families have been forced to build life insurer Genworth Financial, and the acquisition of US mobile marketing firm make-shift bomb shelters as they try and escape the airstrikes. The US has singled AppLovin by Orient Hontai Capital for $1.4 billion. out Russia’s support for the Syrian government in its statement condemning the attacks stating, “Assad and his deplorable regime must stop committing additional atrocities and must not be further abetted by backers in Moscow and Tehran.”

Assessment

Our assessment is that the crisis unfolding in the war-ravaged country has put the lives of hundreds of thousands of people in danger. The increased airstrikes have resulted in not only widespread property damage but also the deaths of children and women. It is imperative for the Security Council to urgently take a definitive decision on ending the violence.

The Syrian dilemma

Doctors in the Ghouta region of Syria have been forced to use expired drugs on their patients as relentless airstrikes have continued over the region. In the span of 48 hours, over 250 people in Ghouta died in February 2018 alone. A report from the Associated Press has revealed that there has been one airstrike every minute in that period. Background

Over the span of several centuries, Syria, which was at the forefront of the Islamic Ramaphosa's cabinet Caliphate, witnessed multiple invasions and occupations: from the Romans, to the New South African President Cyril Ramaphosa reshuffled his Crusaders, to the Turks. cabinet on Monday. Ramaphosa was sworn in earlier this month The current conflict, the Syrian Civil War, has been going on since 2011. It began after former president Zuma resigned amongst allegations of during the Arab Spring protests due to resentment towards the government of corruption. President Bashar al-Assad. The war is being fought by several factions. The Syrian government and its allies, have been facing a loose alliance of Sunni Arab rebel Ramaphosa’s new cabinet reappointed some ministers that groups (including the Free Syrian Army) since the uprising. These rebels have been Zuma had fired, while keeping a number of Zuma’s supporters pushed back into a few areas of control, largely with Iranian and Russian backing. in power. 3 - Insights ▷ February 2018

Background

Cyril Ramaphosa has led a storied political career that was initially sparked from activism. His activities at the South African Students Organisation (SASO) and the Black People's Convention (BPC) resulted in him being detained in solitary confinement for eleven months in 1974. In the 1980s, Ramaphosa began to actively participate in the anti-apartheid movement.

In 1991, he became the head of the ANC team, negotiating the end of apartheid with the National Party government. Following the first fully democratic elections in 1994, Ramaphosa became a Member of Parliament. He was favoured by Nelson Mandela to be his successor as President for South Africa. Ramaphosa also built up the biggest and most powerful trade union in South Africa -the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM). However, Ramaphosa’s ascent to power was not without its own set of controversies. Even though he was never indicted for corruption, his business dealings were often criticized. Controversial business dealings include acting as Chairperson for the MTN Group during the MTN Irancell scandal. Netanyahu’s legacy

From 2014 to 2017, Ramaphosa served as the country’s Deputy President and second in command to President Jacob Zuma. In December 2017, Zuma was voted out of the leadership position at the ANC due to multiple scandals. Zuma was Israeli police have recommended indicting Prime Minister accused of improper dealings with Indian-born businessmen - the Gupta Brothers. in connection with two corruption cases. It was these charges of corruption that led to a drawn out conflict between Zuma After months of investigation, the police believe that there is and the ANC leadership. After months of ignoring his party’s wishes, Zuma stepped enough evidence to bring charges of bribery and fraud against down from the presidency in February 2018. Consequently, Cyril Ramaphosa was the leader of the nation. His wife has also been implicated in the sworn in as President. Ramaphosa has presented himself as a reformer and anti- cases. corruption fighter. In a speech after being sworn in, he promised to tackle “issues to do with corruption, issues of how we can straighten out our state owned enterprises Background and how we deal with ‘state capture’”. Even before he became the Prime Minister of , Benjamin Netanyahu enjoyed an illustrious career. His father was , a professor at Cornell Analysis University. Benjamin Netanyahu after graduating from the Massachusetts Institute On Monday, Ramaphosa announced his cabinet. The new President’s cabinet of Technology (MIT), joined the in 1967. While in the military, reshuffle has gained attention primarily for his reappointment of Nhlanhla Nene, he participated in a number of successful missions and fought in the Yom Kippur former finance minister who was fired by Zuma. War. His brother Yonatan Netanyahu was a widely celebrated war hero. He had commanded the elite commando unit during Operation . Nene was reportedly dismissed in 2015 for his attempts to check government Even though the operation was successful, he was killed while on duty. Benjamin spending, particularly on nuclear power. Zuma replaced Nene with Des van Rooyen, Netanyahu, after a stint with the famed Consulting Group, returned to Israel a relatively unknown figure in South African politics. This move resulted in the fall in 1978 to start the Yonatan Netanyahu Anti-Terror Institute. of the Rand against the Dollar. Van Rooyen was replaced four days later by Pravin Gordhan. Gordhan, who handled the public enterprises department, was also fired He became Israel’s youngest Prime Minister in 1996 and served until 1999 when he by Zuma in 2017. lost the general elections. He moved from the political arena to the private sector for a brief period of time after that. In 2002 he became Israel’s Finance Minister and has Ramaphosa has reinstated Gordhan to his former position. The reappointment also served as the Foreign Affairs Minister. Netanyahu presently has been elected of these two important figures is likely an attempt to demonstrate Ramaphosa’s as the Prime Minister of Israel four times - only David Ben Gurion has been elected commitment to fighting corruption and rebuilding the South African economy. to the office those many times. If he completes the latest term, he will become the However, Ramaphosa’s new cabinet is a careful mixture of new and old. A number longest serving Prime Minister in the nation’s history. Netanyahu has indicated that of Zuma’s loyal followers were demoted but kept in the cabinet. “In making these he plans on contesting the upcoming elections as well. changes, I have been conscious of the need to balance continuity and stability with the need for renewal, economic recovery and accelerated transformation,” Despite his long and storied career, Netanyahu and his family have been at the Ramaphosa explained. centre of a number of scandals. In August 2017, the Israeli police confirmed that Netanyahu was under investigation under suspicion of having committed “fraud, Other important appointments include Lindiwe Sisulu as foreign affairs minister; breach of trust and bribes” in two corruption cases. The cases revolve around David Mabuza as Deputy President; Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (Zuma’s ex-wife) as Netanyahu allegedly taking gifts from wealthy benefactors and attempting to sway minister to the presidency; and Malusi Gigaba as home affairs minister. media coverage. This is the first time Netanyahu has been publicly designated a suspect. Netanyahu has staunchly denied the charges and has maintained that the Ramaphosa’s appointment of the ANC deputy president David Mabuza as Deputy investigation was politically motivated. His wife has also been accused of having President of South Africa has been strongly criticized by the opposition. Mabuza received lavish gifts. was close to Zuma and is currently facing charges for corruption. After noting Mabuza’s appointment, opposition leader Mmusi Maimane implied that a number Analysis of members of the cabinet were guilty of corruption. “Ramaphosa’s new cabinet will serve the ANC, not South Africa,” Maimane said. There are three specific cases that deal with Benjamin Netanyahu and his family. One connects the Prime Minister to charges of corruption in an over billion-dollar Assessment deal between Israel and Germany. The second case alleges that he struck a deal with a newspaper to receive favorable coverage, and the third case alleges that his Our assessment is that President Ramaphosa’s main focus will be on winning wife and son received lavish gifts from wealthy businessmen. public opinion before the 2019 general elections. To do this, Ramaphosa will have to fulfil his promise to address corruption and the country’s weak economy. After months of investigation into two of the cases, police have now recommended Analysts believe that the careful balance of Ramaphosa’s cabinet indicates that the the indictment of the Israeli Prime Minister on charges of bribery and fraud. "The ANC is still facing serious internal strife. Will disunity within the ANC compromise findings of the investigation revealed that the relationship between the Prime Ramaphosa’s promise of “a new dawn”? Minister and Mr. Milchan was a bribery relationship that amounted to a criminal

4 - Insights ▷ February 2018 - Insights ▷ February 2018

offense and not an innocent relationship between friends," the police spokesman but will withhold $65 million for now. said. Russia remains an important player in the Middle East peace process and is a member Netanyahu has stated that the investigations against him were politically motivated. of the Middle East Quartet. In 2017, in a move that surprised the international "The police is infected with hallucinated allegations, the police can’t be objective," community, Russia recognized West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. "We reaffirm he said. "I’m sure that the attorneys will find that nothing I did was incorrect." He our commitment to the UN-approved principles for a Palestinian-Israeli settlement, added, “I have acted only for the good of the country, not for cigars, not for the press which include the status of East Jerusalem as the capital of the future Palestinian coverage, only the good of the country…There is nothing — [it is] an upside-down state," the ministry said. "At the same time, we must state that in this context we world.” view West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel."

Some prominent Israeli politicians have now begun calling for the resignation of Analysis the Prime Minister. Ehud Barak, former Israeli Prime Minister called on Netanyahu to step aside. "These are difficult and sad times," Barak said on social media. After Trump officially recognized Jerusalem as Palestinian, President Mahmoud "The picture emerging from the police recommendation is chilling. The depth of Abbas sharply attacked Trump's Middle East peace efforts, saying he would not corruption is staggering." accept any peace plan from the US after its recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. The talks between Israel and Palestine last broke down in 2014. Assessment Since then, Europe has taken on a larger role and the European Union not only Our assessment is that Netanyahu, who is no stranger to controversy finds himself increased its aid to Palestine but also indicated that it would take a larger role in caught in a scandal that could destroy his entire legacy. Ehud Olmert, a former the peace process. "Any framework for negotiations must be multilateral and must Israeli Prime Minister, was indicted for, fraud, breach of trust, falsifying corporate involve all players - all partners - that are essential to this process. A process without documents, and tax evasion. He was convicted of bribery and served time in prison. one or the other would simply not work, would simply not be realistic," EU foreign Will Benjamin Netanyahu, who hails from an illustrious background, follow suit? policy chief Federica Mogherini said. "Nothing without the United States, nothing with the United States alone," Mogherini told reporters in Brussels.

Palestinian authorities have now confirmed that President Abbas would be requesting Russian President Vladimir Putin to help form an international multilateral mechanism for sponsoring the peace process. This would not only place more power with Russia but would also diminish the US’ current role as chief moderator in the process.

“Russia and Putin can play an important role within the frame of an international forum for peace,” said Majdi al-Khalidi, diplomatic adviser to Abbas. Another PA official has been quoted as noting, “President Abbas is hoping to win Putin’s support for the idea of an international multilateral mechanism for achieving peace in the Middle East.”

Assessment

Our assessment is that Palestine losing trust in the current process, has resulted in Palestine requests Russia the diminishment of the US influence in the region. Palestine believes that President Trump’s actions prove that the US has a bias towards Israel and will therefore no to take over longer be an effective moderator. President Abbas’ request also indicates that Russia’s influence in the region has continued to grow in recent years. This should Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to request be of concern especially to the so-called “Beltway” politicians in Washington. Russia to help form an international multilateral mechanism for sponsoring the peace process between Israel and Palestine. We feel that India has a very constructive role to play, given our special relationship Ever since US President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem with Palestine and Prime Minister Modi’s personal equation with Israeli Prime as the capital of Israel, Abbas has noted that Palestine would Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It would be a wonderful opportunity to retake its not accept the US’ role as the moderator for the process. position as an elder statesman in negotiating regional peace. Background The issue with China’s Jerusalem is considered to be one of the holiest sites by millions of people (Christians, Muslims and Jews). Israelis and Palestinians both claim Jerusalem as Silk Road their capital, as the State of Israel maintains its primary governmental institutions there, while the State of Palestine ultimately foresees the city as its seat of power. So far, neither claim is widely recognized internationally. The Battle for Jerusalem Australia, Japan, India, and the United States, known as the occurred from December 1947 to 18 July 1948. As a result, the city was split between “Quad”, are reportedly in talks to develop an alternative to Israel and Jordan after the war, with Israel ruling West Jerusalem and Jordan ruling China’s ambitious One Belt One Road initiative. However, critics East Jerusalem with the Old City. have stated that from a development perspective, such large- scale, infrastructure-heavy projects may not achieve the results On December 6th, 2017, US President Donald Trump pivoted from decades’ long intended. US foreign policy and recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Trump’s announcement triggered a wave of protests and violence across the Middle East. Background More than 10,000 people have protested so far - a week after the announcement. In 2018, the US administration announced that it would be withholding nearly half China’s One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR) was announced in 2013. Hailed as a of the initial aid it was planning on giving to a UN agency that helps Palestinians. “21st Century Silk Road”, the initiative seeks to revive trade routes across Eurasia. According to the US State Department, the nation would provide $60 million in aid OBOR has been publicised as a development strategy that involves huge amounts 5 - Insights ▷ February 2018

Assessment

Our assessment is that in order to be successful, economic and infrastructural projects must consider the complexities of development. Else, projects such as OBOR remain strategies to increase global clout rather than means of development. We believe that concerns regarding China’s expanding reach are valid. In order to counter this, India must utilize its resources strategically and focus on more holistic developmental schemes. While India cannot fund and shape as grandiose a strategy as the OBOR, it can continue to build diplomatic ties and trade networks with other regional and international powers.

of physical infrastructure, including railroads, highways, ports, and pipelines. According to the World Bank, OBOR has the potential to include “65 countries, 4.4 billion people, and about 40% of the global GDP”.

The proposed economic corridor is divided into the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR). The land route is intended to stretch from Central China through Central Asia and Russia, into Western Europe. The oceanic “road” includes ports and littoral infrastructure across South and South East Asia, the Gulf, and ends in East Africa and the Mediterranean. Most recently, China extended an invitation to South American countries to participate in this initiative.

India is one of the few South Asian countries that has not signed the deal, and India to Intervene in Maldives? remains highly sceptical of increasing Chinese influence in its neighbourhood. One of India’s main issues with OBOR is the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As a political and constitutional crisis continues to unfold in CPEC not only gives China access to the Gwadar port in the Arabian Sea, but also Maldives, the opposition has requested India to intervene runs partly through Pakistan occupied Kashmir. China has not yet addressed against President Yameen. China has already spoken against India’s concerns on this issue. any military intervention by India in the region. The escalating crisis in Maldives poses deep consequences to India, China and The Belt and Road initiative has become a central feature of Chinese foreign the Indian subcontinent. policy. It underlines China’s goal to assume a larger role in international affairs, with Beijing as the centre of a global trade network. Background

Analysis The South Asian island nation of Maldives, located in the Indian Ocean, gained independence from colonial rule in 1965. Three years later, in March 1968, the country voted to become a republic. The first multi-party democratic elections held Last week, media reports of an alternative to China’s OBOR emerged. India, Japan, in the Maldives took place in 2008, following a constitutional referendum in 2007. Australia, and the United States have reportedly been in talks to establish their own Mohamed Nasheed, one of the founders of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) global trade framework. The informal strategic dialogue between the four nations is was the first democratically elected president of the nation. In 2015, Nasheed was called the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue” or the “Quad”. The plans will reportedly convicted on charges of terrorism and was sentenced to 13 years in prison after be discussed when Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull visits the US for talks being found guilty. with President Trump. This initiative will help meet the demand for infrastructure in the continent and has been praised as a potential alternative for trade in Asia. On the 1st of this month, the Maldivian Supreme Court issued a ruling stating that the 2015 However, critics have stated that the proposed “Quad” alternative must be called conviction of former President Nasheed and 8 other leaders was unconstitutional. what it is: a geopolitical venture, and not an economic endeavour. Additionally, the court ordered the release and reinstatement of 12 opposition MPs. Security cooperation between the four nations has drawn Beijing’s ire. The quartet Ties between Maldives and its neighbor India have traditionally been friendly. The held official talks during the 2017 ASEAN Summits in Manila. India and the US have countries have been close in strategic, economic and military cooperation. India expressed concern regarding China’s growing soft power across the world, and have contributed to maintaining security on the island nation. Ties between China and reportedly engaged in talks on China. Growing trade between India and Japan, and Maldives were established at a later date in 1972. China has an embassy in Malé Japan and Australia’s close ties to the United States, has also drawn suspicion from and the Maldives has an embassy in Beijing which opened in 2009. The Indian Beijing. Government has expressed concern about the growing Chinese influence in the Maldives, including China's intention to set up military base in Marao. The actual economic advantages of the projects proposed by OBOR and the Quad are limited, critics say. Agencies such as the Asia Development Bank have Analysis estimated that the region’s infrastructural needs approximate $1.5 trillion a year for more than a decade. However, Tom Holland, writing for the South China Morning The opposition parties in Maldives have officially requested India to intervene Post, points out that having the capital to invest in such projects does not ensure in the current Maldives situation. Mohamed Nasheed, a former president, has their success. Huge regions of Asia simply lack the structural capability to draw been leading the opposition from his exile in Sri Lanka. He stated, “On behalf of economic benefit from such large-scale projects, he argues. The massive Chinese- the Maldivian people we humbly request: 1. India to send an envoy, backed by its funded Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, built as a part of the “21st Century Maritime military, to release judges and political detainees including President Gayoom. We Silk Road”, for example, saw dismal returns. request a physical presence. 2. The US to stop all financial transactions of Maldives regime leaders going through US banks.” “While physical capital like a new port or railway can be built in just a few years, Meanwhile, China has said that it was against any military action from the Indian building the human and institutional capital that allow that port to contribute government. When asked to comment on Nasheed's call to India, Chinese Foreign effectively to economic and social progress is an altogether slower process…Trying Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said, "The international community should play to force the pace by throwing money at new projects doesn’t work. Building too a constructive role on the basis of respecting the Maldives' sovereignty instead of much too quickly ends up destroying economic value,” he wrote. taking measures that could complicate the current situation." 6 - Insights ▷ February 2018 - Insights ▷ February 2018

“We are disturbed by the declaration of a state of emergency in the Maldives, Indian diaspora in Africa following the refusal of the government to abide by the unanimous ruling of the full bench of the Supreme Court on 1 February, and also by the suspension of India has more than a 3000 year history of cultural and commercial relations constitutional rights,” foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said, when asked with Africa. In South Africa, the total strength of the Indian Diaspora is 1,218,000 about the possibility of military intervention. In 1988, when the Maldives capital and they constitute nearly 3% of the total population of South Africa. They are came under attack from a band of mercenaries, Indian paratroopers came to the concentrated in the major industrial centres of South Africa and around 75% of the rescue of the government and quickly restored order. India has often acted as a Indian community lives in Kwazulu Natal. Prominent personalities such as Ahmed peacekeeper in the region historically. Kathrada fought against the Apartheid movement. Assessment Analysis Our assessment is that the crisis in Maldives has deep ramifications not only In February 2018, reports emerged that an elite police squad had raided one of the domestically but also internationally. It especially is of consequence to China and homes owned by the Gupta family. In addition, local media has also reported that at India. The ties between China and India have soured in 2017 after an extended least three arrests have been made including that of one Gupta brother and a family military stand-off in Doklam. Additionally, India has become wary of China’s associate. Some other associated parties are reportedly negotiating terms to turn growing influence in the region, especially in Nepal. China has signalled that it plans themselves over to the police. on building artificial islands near Maldives, which has caused concern in Delhi. A Chinese base in the Maldives might upset the naval balance of the whole Indian Hangwani Mulaudzi, a spokesman for the police unit known as the Hawks, said Ocean, potentially threatening mainland India, as well as the nearby US base at the raid was part of an investigation into allegations of influence-peddling in the Diego Garcia. How India tackles the political crisis in Maldives will indicate how it government. “We’re viewing this investigation in a very serious light. We’re not plans on countering China’s growing influence and ambitions for the region. playing around in terms of making sure that those who are responsible in the so- called state capture, they take responsibility for it,” Mulaudzi said. The reputation that the Gupta family now has in South Africa is extremely poor. This move would prove to be favorable for Cyril Ramaphosa who has vowed to root out corruption in the country. Assessment

Our assessment is that the scandal surrounding the Gupta family would be detrimental to India’s image as a whole. There is already some resentment against Indian families in West and East Africa who are equated to neo colonizers. This comes during a period when the Indian government is trying to expand its influence and goodwill in the region. There have been widely respected members of Indian origin like Ahmed Kathrada, who are still venerated. However, the controversy around the Gupta family is likely to leave a sour taste with Africans. India’s image in Africa The residence of the prominent Gupta family in South Africa has been raided by an elite South African police unit. The influential business family has been at the center of the scandal surrounding embattled President Jacob Zuma.

Background

South African President Jacob Zuma’s government has been accused of improper dealings with the South African based Gupta family. Brothers Ajay, Atul and Rajesh (also known as Tony) Gupta, all in their 40s, relocated to South Africa from India's EU vs digital cloud northern state of Uttar Pradesh in Saharanpur in 1993. On Monday, it was reported that the European Union is processing They run a company called the Sahara Group (no relation to the Indian company legislation that will allow it to demand access to customer of the same name). As of December 2016, their company has an annual turnover data across boundaries. This has raised several concerns from of about 200m rand ($22m; £14.3m) and employs close 10,000 people. They have corporations that host such information, as well as activists interests in computers, mining, air travel, energy, technology and media. concerned about citizens’ basic right to privacy.

In 2016, leaked emails and documents (over 100,000) appeared to highlight improper dealings between the Gupta family and the government. The family has Background been able to land a number of lucrative government deals for decades. Additionally, In recent years, there has been growing concern amongst governmental and inter- Zuma and his family have strong ties with the Guptas. governmental agencies regarding digital crimes. The internet has been used as a There has been significant backlash against both Zuma and the Gupta family. tool by organisations such as ISIS to radicalize youth and spread propaganda. In Thousands have taken to the streets to protest the alleged influence wielded by the 2016, two major cyberattacks took place, and billions of dollars were lost due to the Guptas. Zuma and the Gupta family have denied any wrongdoing. NotPetya and WannaCry malwares.

India’s relationship with Africa However, another growing concern during this era of information, is privacy. The increasing use of cloud storage through companies such as Google, Amazon, Africa’s trade with India has grown nearly 35% every year from 2005. As of 2015, Dropbox, and Microsoft, leaves sensitive and often personal data in the hands of trade between the continent and India was around $100 billion. There are further these corporations. The server storing this information is often remotely located. plans of boosting trade ties. It was decided during the 2014 World Economic Forum The EU has shown initiative in updating its policies to address cyber issues. The bloc (WEF) India Economic Summit that India-Africa trade would increase to $500 billion has expressed concern regarding inflammatory content and hate speech on major by 2020. social media sites for years. 7 - Insights ▷ February 2018

In April 2016, the European Parliament & Council ordered the replacement of the DPD with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The GDPR, which will be implemented in May 2018, is intended to increase regulations “with regard to the processing of personal data and on the free movement of such data”. As GDPR is a regulation rather than a directive, it will be directly applicable across all member nations once implemented.

Analysis

On the 26th of February, Reuters reported that the European Union is currently drafting legislation that will enable law enforcement to demand access to electronic In that period, billions of dollars were spent in generous social programs. After his criminal evidence: both within the EU, and across the world. “The current method death, his successor, Nicolas Maduro took office. There has been a rise in inflation [to access evidence internationally] is very slow and non-efficient,” European and a shortage of basic goods. A drop in oil prices had added to the administration’s Justice Commissioner Vera Jourova told Reuters. Under the current system, Mutual problems. Legal Assistance Treaties (MLAT), European officials are required to file an official warrant with the country where the data is stored. Jourova acknowledged the The nation’s economy has become increasingly unstable and there is hyperinflation inter-governmental issues that could arise. “This issue of reciprocity in the law in the region. A recent study revealed that at least 93% of Venezuelans cannot afford enforcement area is highly necessary to be discussed, in order to avoid the problem to buy enough food. The study also stated that 73% of the population have lost of conflict of laws,” she said. weight in 2017 alone. Reports note that people have taken to scavenging through trash. Amidst all the political turmoil, Venezuela's cushion of cash has fallen to Earlier this month, Jourova delivered a slightly contradictory message, warning its lowest point in over 20 years. As of late 2017, Venezuela only had $10 billion in social media giants Facebook, Google, and Twitter to update their privacy policies reserves. A nation’s reserve funds are the amount of funds it has to address any to match EU laws. Further, in 2014, in the context of a case that will reach the United crisis and to ensure economic stability. Additionally, the nation has incurred $120 States Supreme Court this week, EU officials said that “extraterritorial application billion in debt. The United States has also imposed heavy sanctions on Venezuela of foreign laws (and orders to companies based thereon) ... may be in breach of that has further affected its economy. international law”. Analysis The case in question, between Microsoft and the United States Justice Department, involves a warrant for information. The warrant is regarding a narcotics investigation. In December 2017, Venezuela announced that the nation would be releasing an Emails stored on Microsoft servers in Ireland hold possible evidence. Microsoft holds oil-backed state cryptocurrency called the ‘Petro’. This has been done to help its that a domestic warrant does not provide grounds to access data stored on servers struggling economy. President Nicolas Maduro also noted that this cryptocurrency overseas. Microsoft President Brad Smith stated that providing domestic agencies would combat the US-led financial “blockade,”. At the time he said, “Venezuela will with access to internationally stored data would be “a recipe for international create a cryptocurrency ... the ‘petro,’ to advance in issues of monetary sovereignty, tension and chaos.” A number of large technology companies including Google, to make financial transactions and overcome the financial blockade.” Apple, and Amazon, have issued support for Microsoft. On February 20th, 2018, Maduro in a national broadcast revealed that Crypto Assessment had raised $735 million. "Today, a cryptocurrency is being born that can take on Superman," Maduro was quoted as saying, by Reuters. He is also reported to have Our assessment is that the European Union has made steps to adapt to a world said during a national broadcast, “We have taken a giant step into the 21st Century. where physical boundaries are increasingly blurred by technology. However, the We are on the world’s technological vanguard.” However, the government has still wider debate surrounding privacy and technology will only continue to grow. As not provided details on the individuals or the corporations that have invested. technology continues to advance, it will be increasingly essential for lawmakers to update existing legal frameworks to address these advancements. "Putin and Maduro have very similar problems," Mati Greenspan, senior market European Union authorities have pushed for years to protect the privacy of analyst at social trading firm eToro, told CNBC in an email last week. "They both individual citizens. Would this legislation change that? have a high dependence on the price of crude oil, which has been rather unstable in the last few years. They both have issues with U.S. sanctions and with the U.S. dollar being the world reserve currency." He added: "To think that of all the governments and banks who are toying with the idea it would be Nicolas Maduro who gets there The reality of Crypto first. I suppose desperation breeds innovation."

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has revealed that the Assessment nation’s proposed cryptocurrency (named “Crypto”) has raised $735 million. The government has announced the creation of Our assessment is that if Crypto becomes a reality, then Venezuela will become the the cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions imposed by the US first country to issue its own cryptocurrency. This will come during a period when government. countries around the world are either trying to ban or regulate cryptocurrency exchanges. There are still multiple questions that surround the launch of Crypto. Background There is no clarity on what network this token will exist in (although some have suggested Ethereum network). Given that the average wage of a Venezuelan is now Despite having world's largest proven oil deposits, many Venezuelans have lived in $3, it is unlikely that they will be able to afford to buy these tokens. In addition, abject poverty. The former President, Hugo Chavez, was in office from 1999 to 2013. cryptocurrency exchanges are highly volatile and could further affect the economy.

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INSIGHTS Insights is a weekly newsletter published by the experts at the Synergia Foundation that provide analysis and assessment of geo political events based on real time information. Editor - Divya Narayanan Address www.facebook.com/SynergiaFoundation SYNERGIA FOUNDATION 34, Vittal Mallya Road, Synergia Foundation is a strategic think tank that works with corporate executive boards & Bengaluru, Karnataka 560001, twitter.com/SynergiaImpact governments to provide deep insights on threats that affect both individuals & organisations. India We work on real time primary information, and draw on our global network of resources to Tel : +91 80 4197 1000 www.synergiafoundation.in 8 deliver the most comprehensive analysis and impactful solutions. Email : [email protected] www.synergiaconclave.org