York Region Transit

The Importance of Service Frequency to Attracting Ridership: The Cases of Brampton and York Jonathan English Columbia University CUTA Conference May 2016 Introduction

• Is density the most important determinant of transit system success? • Can transit be successful in areas with relatively low density and a suburban built form? • Do service increases and reductions affect ridership?

• The goal is to find natural experiments that can answer these questions The Region

Source: Wikimedia The Comparison

York Region Transit Brampton Transit • Focused expansion on • Developed grid network major corridors, of high-service bus including pioneering routes Viva BRT • Tailored service to demand on secondary corridors High Frequency Routes

York Brampton

Green = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Grey = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Source: Public Schedules and Google Earth Principal Findings

• Increased service improves ridership performance • “Network effect” means that comprehensive network of high-service routes, rather than focus on select corridors, produces largest ridership gains • Well-designed service improvements can be undertaken while maintaining stable fare recovery Brampton vs York Service

1.8 1.6 1.4

/Capita 1.2 1 0.8 Kilometres 0.6 0.4 Vehicle 0.2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 York Brampton

Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton vs York Ridership

40 35 Brampton: +57.7% 30 25 20

15 Riders/Capita 10 York: +29.7% 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Brampton York

Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton Ridership vs Service

40 1.8 1.7 35 1.6

30 1.5 1.4

25 1.3 Riders/Capita

1.2 Vehicle Hours/Capita 20 1.1 15 1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita

Source: CUTA Fact Book YRT Ridership vs Service

25 1.2 1.1 20 1

15 0.9 0.8

10 0.7 Riders/Capita *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in 2011- 0.6 Vehicle Hours/Capita 5 2012 by strike and subsequent two months of free fares 0.5 0 0.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita

Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton Fare Recovery Ratio

60% 1.8 1.6 50% 1.4 40% 1.2 1 30% 0.8 20% 0.6

0.4 Vehicle Hours/Capita 10% 0.2

Operating Revas %ofOperatingCost 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita

Source: CUTA Fact Book YRT Fare Recovery Ratio

50% 1.2 45% 1 40% 35% 0.8 30% 25% 0.6 20% 0.4 15% 10% *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in 2011- Vehicle Hours/Capita 0.2 2012 by strike and subsequent two months of free 5% fares Operating Revas %ofOperatingCost 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita

Source: CUTA Fact Book Effect on Individual Routes

• The following slides will explore the effect of the service changes on a sample of individual routes • They have been selected for their comparability • The data sources are 2005 and 2016 timetables of York Region Transit and Brampton Transit • Highway 7 BRT and local routes in both Brampton and York • Both major commercial arteries surrounded by single-family residences, serving major employment areas • Comparison made with busier eastern section in York

YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1

Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016

Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour YRT Day Total: 149, Brampton Day Total: 201 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 YRT Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2005 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016

YRT 2005 vs2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post-Viva BRT; 2005 Day Total: 55, 2016 Day Total: 149 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Brampton Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2005 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016

Brampton 2005 vs2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post- Züm BRT; 2005 Day Total: 106, 2016 Day Total: 201 • Two typical secondary routes serving single-family residential areas

YRT Route 7 Martin Grove Brampton Route 50 Gore Road

Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth 5

0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016

Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour YRT Day Total: 27, Brampton Day Total: 55 4

0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2005 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016

YRT 2005 vs2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour 2005 Day Total: 31, 2016 Day Total: 27 5

0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2005 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016

Brampton 2005 vs2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour 2005 Day Total: 8, 2016 Day Total: 55 3

Saturday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour Brampton Day Total: 33, YRT Day Total: 18 3

Sunday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour Brampton Day Total: 29, YRT Day Total: 0 Effect of Service Increase

Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood, 2011 to 2015 Change in Trips per Day Change in Ridership

177%

54%

18% 0%

Saturday Sunday

Ridership Source: Brampton Transit Timing the Effect

Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood Sundays, 2011 to 2015 1800 60 1600 50 1400 1200 40 1000 30

800 Trips Riders 600 20 400 10 200 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ridership 583 916 1404 1453 1614 Trips per Day 35 54 54 54 54

Ridership Source: Brampton Transit Effect of Service Reductions

Route 3 Thornhill January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 44 to 36 Weekday Trips) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality

-0.5%

-14.1%

Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics – 2015 Third Quarter Effect of Service Reductions

Route 7 Martin Grove January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 29 to 27 Weekday Trips, Elimination of Saturday Clockface Schedule) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality 1.3%

-8.9%

Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics – 2015 Third Quarter The Elephant Next Door

• Can statistical analysis permit us to draw conclusions on the effect of service based on a comparison with the very different TTC?

• Data is from the Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey Mode Share by Census Tract Across the Boundary

Source: Google Earth Census Tracts

• 239 census tracts selected in a band on either side of Toronto-York municipal boundary • Areas of roughly equal size • Both predominantly suburban, postwar • Include large areas of single- family homes as well as employment areas and some towers • Both have high percentage new Canadians • Both areas predominantly middle class, though York side somewhat more affluent Variables

• ModeShare • The percentage of residents of a given tract who use public transit for their primary work trips. It is used to measure the success of transit at attracting riders. • TTC • A binary variable based on whether the tract is served by the Toronto Transit Commission. It is a proxy for level of transit service, as the TTC service area offers considerably more service than the non-TTC area • MedianHouseholdIncome (control variable) • The median household income in Canadian dollars of residents of a census tract • Density (control variable) • The density of residents per square kilometre in a census tract Regression Results Regression Results (cont’d)

• The results of the regression analysis indicate that all of the analyzed variables added statistically significantly to the prediction. The equation had an r2 of 0.6948. • Controlling for both density and income, there is a statistically significant, positive relationship between being located in the TTC service area and the transit mode share. Validity Threats

• Doesn’t capture off-peak travel

• Doesn’t capture people who walk to TTC

• Most data problems would understate effect of service on ridership

• Also may show impact of punitive cross-boundary fares Conclusion

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