The Importance of Service Frequency to Attracting Ridership: The Cases of Brampton and York Jonathan English Columbia University CUTA Conference May 2016 Introduction • Is density the most important determinant of transit system success? • Can transit be successful in areas with relatively low density and a suburban built form? • Do service increases and reductions affect ridership? • The goal is to find natural experiments that can answer these questions The Region Source: Wikimedia The Comparison York Region Transit Brampton Transit • Focused expansion on • Developed grid network major corridors, of high-service bus including pioneering routes Viva BRT • Tailored service to demand on secondary corridors High Frequency Routes York Brampton Green = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Grey = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Source: Public Schedules and Google Earth Principal Findings • Increased service improves ridership performance • “Network effect” means that comprehensive network of high-service routes, rather than focus on select corridors, produces largest ridership gains • Well-designed service improvements can be undertaken while maintaining stable fare recovery Brampton vs York Service 1.8 1.6 1.4 /Capita 1.2 1 0.8 Kilometres 0.6 0.4 Vehicle 0.2 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 York Brampton Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton vs York Ridership 40 35 Brampton: +57.7% 30 25 20 15 Riders/Capita 10 York: +29.7% 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Brampton York Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton Ridership vs Service 40 1.8 1.7 35 1.6 30 1.5 1.4 25 1.3 Riders/Capita 1.2 Vehicle Hours/Capita 20 1.1 15 1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book YRT Ridership vs Service 25 1.2 1.1 20 1 15 0.9 0.8 10 0.7 Riders/Capita *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in 2011- 0.6 Vehicle Hours/Capita 5 2012 by strike and subsequent two months of free fares 0.5 0 0.4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book Brampton Fare Recovery Ratio 60% 1.8 1.6 50% 1.4 40% 1.2 1 30% 0.8 20% 0.6 0.4 Vehicle Hours/Capita 10% 0.2 Operating Revas %ofOperatingCost 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book YRT Fare Recovery Ratio 50% 1.2 45% 1 40% 35% 0.8 30% 25% 0.6 20% 0.4 15% 10% *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in 2011- Vehicle Hours/Capita 0.2 2012 by strike and subsequent two months of free 5% fares Operating Revas %ofOperatingCost 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book Effect on Individual Routes • The following slides will explore the effect of the service changes on a sample of individual routes • They have been selected for their comparability • The data sources are 2005 and 2016 timetables of York Region Transit and Brampton Transit • Highway 7 BRT and local routes in both Brampton and York • Both major commercial arteries surrounded by single-family residences, serving major employment areas • Comparison made with busier eastern section in York YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016 Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour YRT Day Total: 149, Brampton Day Total: 201 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 YRT Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2005 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016 YRT 2005 vs2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post-Viva BRT; 2005 Day Total: 55, 2016 Day Total: 149 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Brampton Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2005 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016 Brampton 2005 vs2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post- Züm BRT; 2005 Day Total: 106, 2016 Day Total: 201 • Two typical secondary routes serving single-family residential areas YRT Route 7 Martin Grove Brampton Route 50 Gore Road Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth 0 1 2 3 4 5 4:00 5:00 6:00 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 7:00 Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Comparison, Service Weekday 8:00 YRT Day Day YRT 9:00 10:00 11:00 Total: Total: 12:00 Trips per hour per Trips 27, Brampton Day Day Brampton 27, 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 Total: 55 Total: 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 0 1 2 3 4 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 YRT 2005 2005 YRT YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2005 8:00 9:00 2005 Day Total: Total: 2005 Day 10:00 11:00 vs Weekday trips per hour per trips Weekday 12:00 2016 Service Comparison Service 2016 13:00 31, 14:00 2016 Day Total: Total: 2016 Day 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 27 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 0 1 2 3 4 5 4:00 5:00 Brampton 2005 2005 Brampton 6:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2005 7:00 8:00 9:00 2005 Day Total: 8, 2016 Day Total: 55 Total: 2016 Day 8, Total: 2005 Day 10:00 11:00 Weekday trips per hour per trips Weekday 12:00 vs 13:00 2016 Service Comparison Service 2016 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 0 1 2 3 4:00 5:00 6:00 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 7:00 Saturday Service Comparison, 2016 Comparison, Service Saturday 8:00 Brampton Day Total: Total: Day Brampton 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 Trips per hour per Trips 13:00 14:00 33, 15:00 YRT Day Total: Total: Day YRT 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 18 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 0 1 2 3 4:00 5:00 6:00 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway 7 2016 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 7:00 8:00 Sunday Service Comparison, 2016 Comparison, Service Sunday 9:00 Brampton Day Total: 29, YRT Day Total: 0 Total: Day 29, YRT Total: Day Brampton 10:00 11:00 12:00 Trips per hour per Trips 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Effect of Service Increase Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood, 2011 to 2015 Change in Trips per Day Change in Ridership 177% 54% 18% 0% Saturday Sunday Ridership Source: Brampton Transit Timing the Effect Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood Sundays, 2011 to 2015 1800 60 1600 50 1400 1200 40 1000 30 800 Trips Riders 600 20 400 10 200 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Ridership 583 916 1404 1453 1614 Trips per Day 35 54 54 54 54 Ridership Source: Brampton Transit Effect of Service Reductions Route 3 Thornhill January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 44 to 36 Weekday Trips) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality -0.5% -14.1% Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics – 2015 Third Quarter Effect of Service Reductions Route 7 Martin Grove January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 29 to 27 Weekday Trips, Elimination of Saturday Clockface Schedule) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality 1.3% -8.9% Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics – 2015 Third Quarter The Elephant Next Door • Can statistical analysis permit us to draw conclusions on the effect of service based on a comparison with the very different TTC? • Data is from the Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey Mode Share by Census Tract Across the Boundary Source: Google Earth Census Tracts • 239 census tracts selected in a band on either side of Toronto-York municipal boundary • Areas of roughly equal size • Both predominantly suburban, postwar • Include large areas of single- family homes as well as employment areas and some towers • Both have high percentage new Canadians • Both areas predominantly middle class, though York side somewhat more affluent Variables • ModeShare • The percentage of residents of a given tract who use public transit for their primary work trips.