Hurontario-Main LRT EMME Model Report Report November 2013 Prepared for: Prepared by: City of Mississauga and City of Brampton Steer Davies Gleave 1500-330 Bay St Toronto, ON, M5H 2S8 Canada +1 (647) 260 4861 www.steerdaviesgleave.com EMME Model Report CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................ 1 2 OVERALL MODELLING APPROACH .................................................................... 3 Traffic Modelling Suite .................................................................................. 3 Provision of inputs for Business Case Appraisal and Ridership Forecasting .................... 3 Overview of existing HOT model ...................................................................... 3 3 AM MODEL REFINEMENTS .............................................................................. 5 Overview................................................................................................... 5 Traffic Flows on Hurontario ............................................................................ 5 Auto vehicle speeds and journey times .............................................................. 9 GO Rail Network .......................................................................................... 9 4 AM 2031 BAU HOT MODEL DEVELOPMENT ........................................................ 14 Overview.................................................................................................. 14 Transit Network ......................................................................................... 14 Auto Network ............................................................................................ 23 Planning Data ............................................................................................ 28 Economic Parameters .................................................................................. 31 5 AM 2031 LRT HOT MODEL DEVELOPMENT ........................................................ 32 Overview.................................................................................................. 32 LRT Alignment ........................................................................................... 32 LRT Operations .......................................................................................... 32 Bus Integration with LRT Operation ................................................................. 35 Changes to the Auto Network ......................................................................... 37 6 PM HOT MODEL DEVELOPMENT ..................................................................... 40 Overview.................................................................................................. 40 7 HOT MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE CORE SCENARIO ............................................. 41 Overview.................................................................................................. 41 Core Assumptions ....................................................................................... 41 Preliminary Results ..................................................................................... 42 AM Base / Business As Usual Modelling results ..................................................... 43 Contents EMME Model Report AM LRT Modelling results .............................................................................. 47 Benchmarking ........................................................................................... 59 Annual Ridership ..................................................... 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Impact of LRT on Highway Flows ..................................................................... 63 8 HOT MODEL OUTPUTS FOR USE IN VISSIM AND BCA WORK ................................... 66 Overview ................................................................................................. 66 Interaction with VISSIM ................................................................................ 66 Benefits Case Appraisal ................................................................................ 67 SYNCHRO Modelling ..................................................................................... 67 9 CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................... 68 FIGURES Figure 1.1 Figure showing the context of the current work ............................1 Figure 1.2 Overview of Route and Stops for Hurontario Main LRT .....................2 Figure 3.1 Hurontario Corridor Auto flows Southbound ..................................5 Figure 3.2 Hurontario Corridor Auto flows northbound ..................................6 Figure 3.3 Forecast Population and Employment growth 2006 to 2031 ...............7 Figure 3.4 Changes in Travel Demand 2006 to 2031 ......................................7 Figure 3.5 Percentage growth in Highway Capacity and Traffic Demand ............8 Figure 3.6 GO Rail Boardings – 2006 Observed & Modelled Values ................... 10 Figure 3.7 GO Rail Vehicle Access – 2006 Observed & Modelled Values ............ 10 Figure 3.8 GO Rail Vehicle Access – 2031 Observed & Modelled Values ............ 11 Figure 3.9 Diagram Illustrating the 2006 Model Adjustment Process ................ 12 Figure 3.10 GO Rail Boardings – 2006 Observed & Revised Model Values ............ 13 Figure 3.11 GO Rail Vehicle Access – 2006 Observed & Revised Model Values ...... 13 Figure 4.1 LOCAL TRANSIT SERVICES ADDED TO REFLECT 2012 NETWORKS ........ 15 Figure 4.2 GO Bus Services added to reflect 2012 Networks ......................... 16 Figure 4.3 Service Changes to serve new Development Areas ........................ 18 Figure 4.4 updated go bus services ........................................................ 19 Figure 4.5 Diagram showing the Transitway Services .................................. 21 Contents EMME Model Report Figure 4.6 ‘Big Move’ Projects included in the Model .................................. 22 Figure 4.7 Differences between the 2006 Base and 2031 BAU networks ........... 24 Figure 4.8 Parking Charges applied within the 2006 Model ........................... 26 Figure 4.9 Parking Charges applied within the 2031 Model ........................... 27 Figure 4.10 Change in Modeled Employment Density from 2006 to 2031 ............ 29 Figure 4.11 Change in Modeled Population Density from 2006 to 2031 .............. 30 Figure 5.1 Illustration of the Option 4 Service Pattern from the PSOP ............. 32 Figure 5.2 TraveL Time Illustration for MiWay Services 19 and 103 ................. 33 Figure 5.3 Figure Ilustrating Headway Reliability in the Corridor ................... 34 Figure 5.4 EMME Lanes difference Plot for BAU & LRT Auto Networks .............. 38 Figure 5.5 EMME Capacity difference Plot for BAU & LRT Auto Network ........... 39 Figure 7.1 AM BAU Transit Flow on Hurontario (Southbound) ........................ 45 Figure 7.2 AM BAU Transit Flow on Hurontario (Northbound) ........................ 45 Figure 7.3 AM BAU Auto Flow on Hurontario (Southbound) ........................... 46 Figure 7.4 AM BAU Auto Flow on Hurontario (Northbound) ........................... 46 Figure 7.5 Brampton GO – Downtown Mississauga – Brampton GO Load Profile ... 49 Figure 7.6 Port Credit – Downtown Mississauga – Port Credit Load Profile ......... 50 Figure 7.7 AM Peak Hour SOuthbound Load Profile ..................................... 51 Figure 7.8 AM Peak Hour Northbound Load Profile ..................................... 52 Figure 7.9 Brampton GO – Downtown Mississauga – Stop to Stop matrix............ 56 Figure 7.10 Port Credit – Downtown Mississauga – Stop to Stop Matrix ............... 57 Figure 7.11 Average Weekday Ridership ............... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 7.12 Boardings per Km (Daily) ................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 7.14 Annual Ridership ............................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 7.15 Comparison of Daily to Annual Ridership FactorError! Bookmark not defined. Figure 7.16 Boardings per Km (Annual) ................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 7.17 Population to Average Weekday Ridership .................................. 62 Figure 7.18 Average Ridership per Station............. Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 7.18 AM Peak Hour Auto Flow on Hurontario (Southbound) .................... 64 Figure 7.19 AM Peak Hour Auto Flow on Hurontario (Northbound) .................... 64 Figure 8.1 SUMMARY OF process to generate 2031 VISSIM Matrices ................. 66 Contents EMME Model Report TABLES Table 4.1 Service Changes to Regional Transit using Transitway ................... 20 Table 4.2 Summary of Planning Data information in Model .......................... 28 Table 4.3 Table showing Economic Parameters Used within the model ........... 31 Table 5.1 Derivation of IVT Equivalence ................................................. 34 Table 5.2 Derivation of Headway Reliability Factor ................................... 34 Table 5.3 Summary of IVT Calculation ................................................... 35 Table 5.4 Bus Network Changes to Integrate with LRT ............................... 35 Table 7.1 Table showing Evolution of Modelling Results.............................. 42 Table 7.2