FOCUS Equity Research 23 August 2018 European Telecom Services INDUSTRY UPDATE Make up or Break up European Telecom Services Are incumbents still the best placed to monetize data? After years of incumbents POSITIVE Unchanged squeezing challengers and promoting network advantage, we believe the balance of power is now swinging back towards challengers. We see challengers increasingly For a full list of our ratings, price target and having more effective tools with which to profitably fight back, jeopardizing earnings changes in this report, please see incumbent retail and wholesale businesses. We believe incumbents will need to table on page 2. consider forms of separation in order to derisk future cashflows and boost return on capital. Key challenger beneficiaries, in our view, are TEF De, 1&1 Drillisch and European Telecom Services DNA – all OW rated. We also upgrade Sunrise, TalkTalk and Masmovil to OW. Maurice Patrick +44 (0)20 3134 3622 Quad-play strategies are starting to backfire as challengers strike back. Most EU
[email protected] incumbents have promoted quad play in recent periods, discounting/deflating mobile Barclays, UK in an effort to take market share and reduce the churn pool. This is now backfiring Mathieu Robilliard somewhat as challengers fight back. We see challengers 1) using alternative/ +44 203 134 3288 wholesale-only FTTH business models to drive fixed market share; 2) exploiting quad
[email protected] play pricing gap opportunities to push convergence, especially in the mid to value Barclays, UK segments, where incumbents have back-book risks; and 3) driving hard fixed-mobile Daniel Morris substitution in copper/VDSL areas.