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Korea Morning Focus May 28, 2019 Korea Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) NCsoft (036570/Buy/TP: W700,000) KOSPI 2,044.21 -1.10 -0.05 June offers good entry point KOSPI 200 264.40 -0.02 -0.01 KOSDAQ 689.67 -0.36 -0.05 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 342,685 3,507 KOSPI 200 51,883 2,289 KOSDAQ 769,018 4,314 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,355,616 KOSDAQ 237,021 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 873 1,067 -194 Institutional 1,027 856 171 Retail 1,588 1,565 23 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 368 418 -50 Institutional 227 225 2 Retail 3,689 3,633 56 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 804 792 11 KOSDAQ 350 359 -9 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 342 491 62 KOSDAQ 522 658 102 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 42,650 -50 317 KODEX Leverage 11,540 15 221 KODEX 200 Futures 7,985 -10 173 Inverse 2X KODEX KOSDAQ150 7,790 5 148 INVERSE Hynix 66,900 -700 148 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Incon 3,780 580 331 Kukil Paper 4,030 335 144 Hyundai IT 17,250 1,650 134 COMPANY K PARTNERS 14,850 3,400 111 Nepes 24,550 -4,650 100 Note: As of May 27, 2019 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. NCsoft (036570 KS) June offers good entry point Game Strong earnings momentum expected in 2Q19 Company Report For 2Q19, we forecast NCsoft’s revenue and operating profit to grow 21.1% and 71.6% QoQ to W434bn and W136bn, respectively. We expect Lineage revenue to surge 150% May 28, 2019 QoQ to W52bn and revenue from mobile titles, including Lineage M, to expand 22% QoQ to W243bn. Our 2Q19 mobile title revenue estimate reflects W20bn in revenue from Lineage M Japan (assuming daily average revenue of W0.7bn and no. 11-15 ranking among top-grossing games), which begins service on May 29th. (Maintain) Buy New titles and global advance to drive significant earnings growth for the next three years Target Price (12M, W) 700,000 The biggest risk to NCsoft’s stock is delays in new title releases. Titles released by the company’s domestic studios over the past two decades have had a 100% success rate. Share Price (05/27/19, W) 480,000 As such, operating profit has grown exponentially QoQ in the first quarter of a new release, driving a strong rally in the stock. Expected Return 46% Many investors are waiting for the right entry point, but are hesitant due to the company’s changing comments about the release schedule for Lineage 2M, which was pushed from 1H19 to 3Q19 and later to 2H19. What hasn’t changed, however, is that OP (19F, Wbn) 814 the company will roll out several large-scale titles—including Lineage 2M, Aion 2, and Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 582 Blade & Soul 2—first in Korea and then in overseas markets, including Japan, Taiwan, the US, Europe, Southeast Asia, and China. EPS Growth (19F, %) 49.5 Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -19.7 In the case of Lineage 2, Aion, and Blade & Soul, overseas revenue has been either in P/E (19F, x) 16.8 line with domestic revenue or around 2.5 times higher on a cumulative basis. Market P/E (19F, x) 11.5 Expectations are growing on the overseas success of upcoming titles. Once Lineage 2M KOSPI 2,044.21 comes out in Korea during 2H19, we expect a new title/market release in almost every quarter for the next three years, which could lead to exponential QoQ earnings Market Cap (Wbn) 10,531 growth. Shares Outstanding (mn) 22 June offers good entry point on six-month, one-year, and five-year Free Float (%) 81.9 investment horizons Foreign Ownership (%) 50.3 Expectations on 2Q19 earnings should begin to build up in June-July. Even if Lineage Beta (12M) 0.75 2M is launched in 4Q19, we still think the market will start to price in new title 52-Week Low 351,000 momentum in 3Q19. 52-Week High 526,000 Microsoft is set to unveil its new cloud gaming platform at next month’s E3 2019 in Los (%) 1M 6M 12M Angeles. Apple, Microsoft, and Google will launch their cloud (streaming) gaming Absolute -4.8 -1.0 31.9 services in 2H19, while Amazon is also expected to join the race in 2020. We believe Relative 1.5 1.6 58.7 such changes in industry dynamics will fuel multiple expansions for globally competitive developers with intellectual property (content). 150 NCsoft KOSPI Current estimates on NCsoft’s 2019 performance differ widely (P/E of 16.8x based on 130 our estimate vs. 22.2x based on consensus), as views on the success and schedule of 110 new releases are highly subjective. Looking at earnings for 2020 (when new title effects will be reflected for the full year), the stock is trading at a P/E of 14.3x based on our 90 estimate and 13.3x based on consensus—the low end of its multiple range over the 70 past two decades. We maintain our Buy rating on NCsoft with a target price of 5.18 9.18 1.19 5.19 W700,000. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [Internet] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 984 1,759 1,715 2,095 2,335 2,882 Chang-kwean Kim +822-3774-1614 OP (Wbn) 329 585 615 814 1,029 1,497 [email protected] OP margin (%) 33.4 33.3 35.9 38.9 44.1 51.9 NP (Wbn) 272 441 418 625 734 1,074 EPS (W) 12,416 20,104 19,061 28,503 33,450 48,938 ROE (%) 14.9 19.1 16.4 23.9 23.1 27.2 P/E (x) 19.9 22.3 24.5 16.8 14.3 9.8 P/B (x) 2.7 3.4 3.7 3.2 2.7 2.2 Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Key Universe Valuations May 28, 2019 ※All data as of close May 24, 2019, unless otherwise noted. 19F Earnings growth Mkt Cap Price P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Ticker Company Div Yield OP EPS (Wbn) (W) (%) 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F 005930 Samsung Electronics 254,611 42,650 3.3 -54.2 38.9 -46.7 34.7 13.3 9.9 1.1 1.1 8.8 11.1 000660 SK Hynix 48,703 66,900 2.2 -78.7 60.6 -78.6 55.5 14.6 9.4 0.9 0.9 6.9 10.1 005380 Hyundai Motor 28,845 135,000 3.0 40.1 30.5 139.2 15.0 10.5 9.2 0.5 0.5 5.1 5.7 051910 LG Chem 23,013 326,000 1.8 -13.1 52.7 -15.4 63.6 20.5 12.5 1.4 1.3 7.1 10.9 068270 Celltrion 22,329 174,000 - - - - 0.0 0.0 055550 Shinhan Financial Group 22,216 46,850 12.5 3.1 10.5 0.7 6.4 6.3 0.6 0.6 9.4 8.8 012330 Hyundai Mobis 20,872 219,000 1.6 9.1 10.2 27.0 7.4 8.9 8.3 0.6 0.6 7.5 7.6 017670 SK Telecom 20,711 256,500 3.9 5.8 9.8 -34.9 53.0 10.2 6.6 0.8 0.7 8.8 12.5 005490 POSCO 20,358 233,500 4.7 -16.7 1.8 69.3 2.3 7.1 7.0 0.4 0.4 6.5 6.3 051900 LG H&H 19,804 1,268,000 0.9 12.5 9.5 15.3 10.4 25.1 22.8 5.4 4.6 19.9 18.8 105560 KB Financial Group 19,129 45,750 9.7 3.8 10.8 4.0 5.6 5.4 0.5 0.5 9.3 9.0 035420 NAVER 18,212 110,500 0.3 -15.1 26.3 -31.4 68.6 40.9 24.3 2.6 2.4 8.2 12.5 028260 Samsung C&T 17,736 93,500 2.1 5.4 20.1 -4.2 20.7 14.0 11.6 0.6 0.6 5.2 5.9 000270 Kia Motors 16,883 41,650 1.9 20.5 19.7 54.5 16.7 9.5 8.1 0.6 0.6 6.3 7.0 034730 SK Holdings 16,535 235,000 2.0 13.3 12.9 -32.3 20.1 10.9 9.1 0.9 0.8 8.9 9.8 032830 Samsung Life 16,400 82,000 - - - - 0.0 0.0 015760 KEPCO 16,049 25,000 - - - - - - 0.2 0.2 - - 018260 Samsung SDS 15,746 203,500 1.4 11.6 16.5 12.7 15.4 22.2 19.2 2.4 2.2 11.3 12.0 096770 SK Innovation 15,211 164,500 4.9 -29.5 18.8 -40.7 27.9 15.7 12.3 0.8 0.8 5.3 6.7 006400 Samsung SDI 14,853 216,000 0.5 16.8 45.7 -1.0 42.4 21.9 15.4 1.2 1.1 5.6 7.5 033780 KT&G 13,729 100,000 4.2 12.8 5.6 17.5 5.1 13.0 12.3 1.5 1.4 12.7 12.6 000810 Samsung F&M 13,194 278,500 - - - - 0.0 0.0 066570 LG Electronics 12,535 76,600 1.0 7.1 20.0 23.7 39.9 9.0 6.5 0.9 0.8 10.3 12.9 003550 LG Corp.
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