Korea Morning Focus
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January 30, 2020 Korea Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150/Buy/TP: W160,000) Raise TP KOSPI 2,185.28 8.56 0.39 A mixed outlook KOSPI 200 293.98 1.21 0.41 KOSDAQ 670.18 5.48 0.82 LG Innotek (011070/Buy/TP: W201,000) Raise TP Positives abound Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value POSCO Chemical (003670/Trading Buy/TP: W70,000) Downgrade rating, KOSPI 681,558 6,590 but raise TP KOSPI 200 84,850 4,457 KOSDAQ 1,040,290 5,574 Expectations of growth driving shares higher Market Cap (Wbn) LG H&H (051900/Buy/TP: W1,640,000) Value China growth on track KOSPI 1,472,172 KOSDAQ 242,426 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,649 1,548 101 Institutional 1,534 2,032 -498 Retail 3,355 2,982 373 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 561 599 -38 Institutional 197 206 -9 Retail 4,792 4,713 79 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,445 1,467 -21 KOSDAQ 505 571 -66 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 516 305 88 KOSDAQ 779 450 115 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 59,100 300 965 Hynix 97,900 1,600 269 KODEX Leverage 14,355 40 268 KODEX Kosdaq150 8,220 170 208 Leverage KODEX 200 Futures 6,095 -35 174 Inverse 2X KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Boditech 16,900 0 229 OKONG Corp. 7,690 520 212 Paru 4,655 5 199 Sugentech 8,430 690 164 DongKoo Bio & Pharma 20,000 2,550 125 Note: As of January 29, 2020 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Samsung Electro-Mechanics (009150 KS) A mixed outlook Technology 4Q19 review: Decent OP of W138.6bn (-55.2% YoY, -26.7% QoQ) Results Comment For 4Q19, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) announced revenue of W1.85tr (-5.3% January 30, 2020 YoY, -16.7% QoQ) and operating profit of W138.6bn (-55.2% YoY, -26.7% QoQ), which were 6.5% (vs. W1.97tr) and 1.1% (vs. W140.2bn) below our estimates, respectively. The market was looking for revenue of W1.99tr and operating profit of W122.6bn. We believe the latest results were solid overall. At the module solutions unit, revenue (Maintain) Buy disappointed due to the waning effects of Samsung Electronics’ (SEC) Galaxy Note 10 sales, but margins were decent, which we attribute to favorable currency effects. The Target Price (12M, W) ▲ 160,000 4Q19 average US$/W rate was 1,176, higher than our expectation. We estimate a gain of 10 in the US$/W rate leads to a W1.5bn increase in operating profit. Share Price (01/29/20, W) 132,500 At the component solutions unit, multi-layer ceramic capacitor (MLCC) OP margin rose for the first time in five quarters. We estimate the unit’s 4Q19 OP margin improved Expected Return 21% 3.2%p QoQ to 13.8%. Utilization also rose from 75% in 3Q19 to 80% in 4Q19. That said, ASP still declined. OP (19F, Wbn) 706 Of note, the company recognized W254.2bn in losses from discontinued operations, Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 683 following the substrate solutions unit’s (RF-PCB, BGA, etc.) exit from the HDI business. Given that the HDI business previously recorded quarterly losses of around W20-30bn, EPS Growth (19F, %) -21.6 its discontinuation should have a positive impact on 2020 earnings. Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -34.6 P/E (19F, x) 18.9 Substrates and camera modules stabilizing; Pace of improvement in MLCCs Market P/E (19F, x) 15.2 to be key KOSPI 2,185.28 Looking to 1Q20, we anticipate revenue of W2.07tr (+0.3% YoY, +12.0% QoQ) and Market Cap (Wbn) 9,897 operating profit of W161.2bn (-33.5% YoY, +16.3% QoQ). The upcoming launch of the Shares Outstanding (mn) 78 Galaxy S20 should provide a boost to module solutions earnings, while the substrate Free Float (%) 73.4 solutions unit should continue profitability thanks to its withdrawal from loss-making Foreign Ownership (%) 31.6 businesses. Beta (12M) 1.11 One area of concern is the component solutions unit, which includes MLCCs. While we 52-Week Low 84,600 see positive effects coming from automotive MLCCs and the proliferation of 5G in 52-Week High 137,000 2H20, meaningful earnings improvement looks unlikely in 1H20, especially given the (%) 1M 6M 12M high margins recorded in 1Q19. Absolute 5.6 46.7 16.7 Reiterate Buy and lift TP to W160,000 Relative 6.5 36.3 16.6 The substrate and camera module businesses are now normalizing. Substrate margins 150 Samsung Electro-Mechanics are likely to improve due to the exit from the PLP/HDI businesses, while camera KOSPI 130 module margins should stabilize on the application of the company’s folded technology. The Galaxy S20 should also have positive effects. The key question going 110 forward will be how quickly the MLCC business can improve. We reiterate our Buy 90 rating on SEMCO and lift our target price to W160,000 (from W151,000), applying a target P/B of 1.9x (45% premium to five-year average; vs. 1.83x previously). Our target 70 1.19 5.19 9.19 1.20 price implies upside potential of 20.8%. We think the stock may need to take a breather following its recent run. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Telecom Equipment/Electronic FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Components] Revenue (Wbn) 6,033 6,838 8,193 8,200 8,552 9,350 Wonjae Park OP (Wbn) 24 306 1,018 706 821 969 +822-3774-1426 OP margin (%) 0.4 4.5 12.4 8.6 9.6 10.4 [email protected] NP (Wbn) 15 162 656 514 620 737 EPS (W) 190 2,084 8,457 6,628 7,993 9,495 ROE (%) 0.3 3.8 14.5 9.7 10.2 11.0 P/E (x) 268.0 48.0 12.2 18.9 16.6 14.0 P/B (x) 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 Dividend yield (%) 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. LG Innotek (011070 KS) Positives abound Technology 4Q19 review: Surprise OP of W209.3bn (+102.0% YoY, +12.2% QoQ) Results Comment For 4Q19, LG Innotek reported revenue of W2.97tr (+22.0% YoY, +21.2% QoQ) and January 30, 2020 operating profit of W209.3bn (+102.0% YoY, +12.2% QoQ), exceeding our expectations (W2.74tr and W180.8bn, respectively). The market was looking for revenue of W2.7tr and operating profit of W158.8bn. The biggest drivers were the optical solutions unit (camera modules and 3D sensing (Maintain) Buy modules) and currency effects. Two of the three new iPhones adopted triple cameras. We estimate triple camera ASP is over US$50, vs. the low-US$30 level for dual camera Target Price (12M, W) ▲ 201,000 modules. iPhone sales remained robust through December (typically a weak month), supporting continued gains in ASP. Share Price (01/29/20, W) 158,000 Currency also had a positive impact on earnings. An increase of 10 in the US$/W rate adds an estimated W1.5bn to the firm’s monthly operating profit. In 4Q19, we believe Expected Return 27% the currency impact was amplified by an increase in dollar-based revenue due to the new iPhone effects. The 4Q19 average US$/W rate was 1,176, higher than the market forecast of 1,160. On the non-operating side, we believe the company booked W100bn OP (19F, Wbn) 403 in expenses, partly due to the discontinuation of the HDI business. In our view, such Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 370 aggressive expense recognition bodes well for 2020 earnings. EPS Growth (19F, %) -37.3 Robust earnings to continue in 1H20; Seasonality to abate Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -34.6 P/E (19F, x) 32.4 Looking to 1Q20, we expect revenue of W1.8tr (+31.7% YoY, -39.2% QoQ) and operating Market P/E (19F, x) 15.2 profit of W35.9bn (turning to profit YoY, -82.8% QoQ).