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Korea Morning Focus February 7, 2020 Korea Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) KB Financial Group (105560/Buy/TP: W63,000) KOSPI 2,227.94 62.31 2.88 Doing the best to enhance shareholder value during challenging times KOSPI 200 300.65 8.63 2.96 KOSDAQ 672.69 11.37 1.72 Korean Air (003490/Trading Buy/TP: W30,000) Disappointing results, when adjusting for accounting changes Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KT (030200/Buy/TP: W36,500) KOSPI 683,230 8,335 5G-driven recovery continues KOSPI 200 108,722 5,351 KOSDAQ 927,730 4,609 Lotte Data Communication (286940/Buy/TP: W63,000) Market Cap (Wbn) Earnings dented by project delays Value KOSPI 1,501,461 KOSDAQ 243,440 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 2,192 2,040 152 Institutional 2,039 1,523 517 Retail 4,040 4,728 -688 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 561 495 66 Institutional 200 241 -41 Retail 3,807 3,830 -23 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,795 1,495 301 KOSDAQ 523 478 44 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 733 130 43 KOSDAQ 996 263 87 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 61,100 1,600 886 KODEX Leverage 14,960 845 496 Shin Poong Pharm. 9,970 1,420 488 KODEX 200 Futures 5,800 -380 363 Inverse 2X KIC Ltd 2,975 480 314 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Celltrion Healthcare 58,900 3,000 164 LabGen 8,210 640 146 HLB 104,500 6,600 131 HDI21 5,310 1,220 125 Welcron 6,240 -500 122 Note: As of February 06, 2020 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. KB Financial Group (105560 KS) Doing the best to enhance shareholder value during challenging times Banks 4Q19 review: Net profit of W534.7bn (+177.9% YoY, -43.1% QoQ) Results Comment For 4Q19, KB Financial Group (KBFG) reported net profit attributable to controlling February 7, 2020 interests of W534.7bn, 5-6% below our estimate (W565bn) and the consensus (W571.8bn). Core income was better than our expectation, but SG&A expenses (including early retirement expenses) were higher. Major one-off items in the quarter included: 1) W173bn in early retirement expenses; 2) W67bn in digitalization-related expenses; and 3) W24bn in provisions (non-operating) related to an Australian real (Maintain) Buy estate fund sold by KB Securities. Excluding these one-offs, we estimate underlying net profit was about W700bn. For 2019 as a whole, non-bank businesses accounted for Target Price (12M, W) 63,000 31% of group net profit (vs. 30% in 2018). Among non-bank subsidiaries, the credit card subsidiary fared better than expected despite concerns about merchant fee cuts, Share Price (02/06/20, W) 45,250 but the non-life insurance subsidiary saw weaker profits, hurt by a rise in auto and medical reimbursement loss ratios and lower interest rates. Expected Return 39% Higher-than-expected 2019 DPS of W2,210; Dividend payout rises to 26.0% For 2019, KBFG declared a dividend of W2,210 per share (vs. W1,920 in 2018), which is NP (19F, Wbn) 3,312 slightly higher than our projection (W2,200) and the consensus (W2,163). The group Consensus NP (19F, Wbn) 3,335 raised its 2019 dividend payout to 26% (from 23.2% in 2017 and 24.8% in 2018), consistent with its commitment to steadily increase its payout to 30%. Looking ahead, EPS Growth (19F, %) 8.2 we forecast dividend payout to rise to 27.4% for 2020 and 27.7% for 2021. This Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -34.7 translates into attractive dividend yields of 5.3% for 2020 and 5.6% for 2021. P/E (19F, x) 5.7 Market P/E (19F, x) 15.2 On December 12th, 2019, KBFG became the first bank holding company to cancel its KOSPI 2,227.94 treasury shares, taking a major step toward enhancing its shareholder value. On its recent earnings call, management said that while nothing has been decided yet, it Market Cap (Wbn) 18,815 recognizes that share cancellations are an important shareholder return and capital Shares Outstanding (mn) 416 efficiency policy and added that it is open to the possibility of further cancellations. Free Float (%) 76.7 Foreign Ownership (%) 67.5 Reaffirm Buy and TP of W63,000 Beta (12M) 1.01 We believe KBFG, which maintains the strongest capital position in the domestic 52-Week Low 38,250 financial sector, has the ability to buffer itself against future risks (such as economic 52-Week High 50,000 downturns) and carry out aggressive shareholder return policies (such as higher (%) 1M 6M 12M dividend payout and share retirements). On top of its earnings stability, we believe the Absolute -2.9 12.4 -6.9 group has the ability to: 1) seize M&A opportunities that can be accretive to earnings Relative -6.1 -3.2 -7.9 and shareholder value; and 2) pursue globalization by advancing into markets with high growth potential, like Southeast Asia. As such, we continue to recommend KBFG 110 KB Financial Group KOSPI as our top pick. 100 As for the acquisition of Prasac, Cambodia’s largest microfinance institution, KB 90 Kookmin Bank plans to purchase a 70% stake by the end of March (following regulatory approval) and acquire the remaining stake sometime after late 2021. We 80 believe Prasac will serve as a gateway to neighboring markets in the region and expect 70 the 70% stake purchase to contribute W75-90bn to annual profits. 1.19 5.19 9.19 1.20 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Fiscal year-end 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19P 12/20F 12/21F Net interest inc. (Wbn) 6,403 7,853 8,905 9,197 9,376 9,737 [Banks/Credit Cards] Net non-interest inc. (Wbn) 1,042 2,339 1,955 2,235 2,595 2,753 Operating profit (Wbn) 1,677 4,016 4,267 4,491 4,773 5,005 Heather Kang +822-3774-1903 Net profit (Wbn) 2,144 3,312 3,061 3,312 3,415 3,581 [email protected] EPS (W) 5,520 8,036 7,321 7,924 8,203 8,611 EPS growth (%) 25.6 45.6 -8.9 8.2 3.5 5.0 P/E (x) 8.2 5.6 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.3 P/PPOP (x) 8.5 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.3 3.1 P/B (x) 0.61 0.56 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.41 ROE (%) 7.2 10.2 8.8 8.9 8.5 8.2 Dividend yield (%) 2.8 4.2 4.2 4.9 5.3 5.6 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) Korean Air (003490 KS) Disappointing results, when adjusting for accounting changes Airlines 4Q19 review: Disappointing results, when adjusting for accounting changes Results Comment For 4Q19, Korean Air reported revenue of W3.05tr (-7.5% YoY). In international February 7, 2020 passenger, we estimate traffic grew nearly 5% YoY, led by long-haul routes, but yield decline likely continued (-4-5% YoY) due to Japan routes, resulting in a 3% YoY fall in revenue. Cargo revenue also contracted sharply on lower yields and weaker traffic. Operating profit improved significantly YoY to W123.6bn (vs. W5.4bn in 4Q18). (Maintain) Trading Buy However, this was primarily due to a temporary maintenance cost decline (estimated at over W100bn) related to changes in accounting standards. Minus this factor, we believe Target Price (12M, W) 30,000 operating profit was around breakeven and far below the market consensus (W101.1bn). Losses from the hotel unit likely narrowed modestly, and the aerospace Share Price (02/06/20, W) 27,000 unit likely remained relatively resilient (operating profit of W13bn). At the net level, we believe Korean Air swung to net profit attributable to controlling Expected Return 11% interests of W86.8bn, buoyed by roughly W350bn in F/X translation gains. Non- consolidated debt ratio came in at 810%, slightly down from 862% in 3Q19.
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