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Cj Enm(035760 August 9, 2018 Result Comment CJ ENM (035760 KS) Decent performance 2Q consolidated operating profit in line at W79.2bn BUY (re-initiate) 3Q consolidated operating profit estimated at W86bn; earnings to stay solid Price (Aug. 8) W236,200 Target Price W270,000 Re-initiate coverage on CJ ENM with a BUY rating and a target price of % variance 14.3% W270,000 HeeJin Park ☎ (82-2) 3772-1562 2Q consolidated operating profit in line at W79.2bn [email protected] CJ ENM posted its first results after the merger on July 1. Consolidated operating profit came in at W79.2bn in 2Q, meeting our forecast of W79.3bn. SeJong Hong ☎ (82-2) 3772-1584 The E&M division delivered solid earnings with sales up 9.2% YoY and operating [email protected] profit up 25% YoY. Broadcasting exceeded expectations with operating profit increasing 22% YoY to W29.2bn. Ad sales growth of 10.2 YoY also turned out better than expected. Music and cinema showed mixed results. The music division KOSPI 2,301.45p posted sales of W66.5bn (+41.1% YoY) and operating profit of W4.2bn (+114% KOSDAQ 783.81p YoY) on strengthening IP (intellectual property) business. By contrast, the Market Cap. W5,179.0bn/ US4,543.0mn cinema/performance division remained in the red with an operating loss of Par Value W5,000 W3.9bn due to stagnant growth of moviegoers and weak line-up. The commerce division (CJ O shopping) registered standalone operating profit of W40.3bn and Outstanding Shares 21.9mn consolidated W33.9bn. The standalone figure was in line with estimate (W40.5bn), Free Floating Shares 10.3mn(46.9%) whereas the consolidated figure was sluggish due to inventory losses at an 52-Week High/Low W286,400/W191,100 overseas subsidiary. 60-Day Avg. Trading Volume 76,069shrs 3Q consolidated operating profit estimated at W86bn; earnings to stay solid 60-Day. Avg. Trading T/O W18,287mn In 3Q, the E&M division’s operating profit is expected to expand up to W33.8bn Foreign Ownership 20.91% (+165.7% YoY) thanks to the subsidiary Studio Dragon. The subsidiary’s Major Shareholders consolidated operating profit is projected to surge 251.8% YoY to W23.4bn. CJ Corp and 5 others 42.71% Sharp growth should be reported in both the top line and profits. Record quarterly earnings may be anticipated in 3Q on recognition of revenues from the Absolute Performance 3M 9.9% drama title Mr. Sunshine. The cinema division is likely to be able to narrow its 6M 4.5% losses due to favorable seasonality. The commerce division should see standalone 12M 12.4% operating profit increase 19% YoY to W36.2bn. We forecast CJ ENM’s consolidated Relative performance 3M 15.9% operating profit to reach W86bn in 3Q. to KOSDAQ 6M 14.9% Re-initiate coverage on CJ ENM with a BUY rating and a target price of W270,000 12M -6.5% We suggest a target price of W270,000 for CJ ENM, reflecting the effect of the merger and the value of individual business units. We recommend a BUY rating in Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research view of: 1) robust broadcasting growth backed by advertising and copyrights analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. (2018F operating profit +91.7% YoY); 2) stable profits generated by CJ O Please see Analyst certification and important disclosures & Shopping; and 3) expanding market cap. of Studio Dragon. disclaimers at the end of this report. Year to Dec. Sales OP Pre-tax NP EPS Growth BPS PER EV/EBITDA PBR ROE Net Debt to Equity (W bn) (W bn) (W bn) (W bn) (Won) (%) (Won) (X) (X) (X) (%) Ratio (%) 2016 1,095.9 144.9 44.8 16.1 2,587 (73.4) 109,908 63.0 5.6 1.5 2.4 (19.0) 2017 1,136.5 157.5 158.7 128.2 20,621 697.0 129,150 11.2 7.8 1.8 17.3 (13.8) 2018F 1,174.0 163.8 174.0 132.9 21,389 3.7 147,628 11.0 28.7 1.6 15.5 (21.3) 2019F 1,243.5 178.4 184.4 133.4 21,459 0.3 165,886 11.0 26.2 1.4 13.7 (26.0) 2020F 1,338.9 192.4 195.6 142.3 22,894 6.7 185,385 10.3 24.2 1.3 13.0 (28.4) Source: Company data, Shinhan Investment 1 Result Comment CJ ENM 2Q18 results (IFRS consolidated) (bn KRW, %) 2Q18P 2Q17 YoY 1Q18 QoQ SHIC Consensus Sales 1,049.0 977.6 7.3 1,031.7 1.7 1,074.2 1,044.5 OP 79.2 88.3 (10.4) 89.9 (12.0) 79.3 83.9 NP 73.8 440.0 (83.2) 96.4 (23.4) 61.2 69.4 OPM 7.8 9.6 9.0 7.9 8.4 NPM 7.3 47.9 9.6 6.1 7.0 Source: Company data, Shinhan Investment Corp. Earnings forecast revision (IFRS consolidated) Before After Change (%) (bn KRW, %) 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F 2018F 2019F Sales 4,410.6 4,721.1 4,388.8 4,716.9 (0.5) (0.1) OP 338.8 397.1 349.8 417.5 3.3 5.1 NP 274.6 320.0 315.7 343.5 14.9 7.3 OPM 8.4 9.3 8.6 9.8 NPM 6.8 7.5 7.8 8.0 Source: Company data, Shinhan Investment Corp. Note: 1) Earnings forecast comparison between post-merger entity and revision made after the 2Q earnings release 2) For the newly merged entity, we believe it is more important to check revised earnings forecasts and quarterly earnings projections provided below than changes in before and after figures. Quarterly earnings (K-IFRS consolidated) (bn KRW, % YoY, %) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P 3Q18F 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F 2018F 2019F 2020F Sales 940.6 988.7 980.8 1,100.0 1,041.2 1,049.0 1,095.7 1,202.9 1,100.3 1,175.9 1,156.9 1,283.9 4,388.8 4,716.9 4,978.5 CJ E&M 394.2 425.4 440.1 490.4 476.5 464.4 530.1 579.5 523.5 578.6 578.8 638.5 2,050.4 2,319.4 2,505.0 Broadcasting 285.7 332.1 317.2 359.1 340.4 361.9 381.6 413.6 374.2 451.1 409.5 454.2 1,497.5 1,689.0 1,809.4 Cinema 56.5 44.5 47.6 50.0 65.6 36.0 72.6 77.7 82.8 49.2 79.6 80.3 251.8 291.9 300.3 Music/performance 52.0 48.7 75.3 81.3 70.6 66.5 75.9 88.1 66.5 78.2 89.6 104.1 301.1 338.5 395.4 CJ O Shopping (consolidated) 546.4 563.4 540.7 609.6 564.7 584.6 565.7 623.4 576.8 597.3 578.1 645.3 2,338.4 2,397.5 2,473.5 Commerce (net sales) 274.9 290.4 259.0 312.1 272.4 283.9 267.7 319.2 282.2 292.6 276.6 339.6 1,143.2 1,191.0 1,256.8 CJ Hello 275.2 275.7 278.2 290.8 286.5 291.3 291.1 295.3 288.2 294.4 294.4 296.8 1,164.2 1,173.8 1,183.0 Others/consolidated adjustments (3.7) (2.8) 3.5 6.7 5.8 9.4 6.8 8.9 6.4 10.2 7.1 9.0 30.9 32.7 33.7 OP 78.8 88.4 61.0 62.1 90.0 79.2 86.0 94.7 103.6 115.2 91.8 106.9 349.8 417.5 446.6 E&M 23.4 23.6 12.7 3.5 34.5 29.5 33.8 33.0 41.2 56.2 37.3 39.8 130.9 174.5 187.1 Commerce 37.8 45.7 29.8 41.1 42.3 33.9 35.4 44.2 45.8 41.7 37.3 48.1 155.9 172.9 184.8 CJ Hello 17.6 19.1 18.5 17.6 13.1 15.7 16.7 17.5 16.7 17.3 17.2 19.0 63.0 70.1 74.6 NP 85.2 94.9 67.5 68.6 96.5 73.8 70.0 75.4 87.7 94.5 76.1 85.2 315.7 343.5 367.2 Sales growth 9.7 8.4 6.7 3.9 10.7 6.1 11.7 9.4 5.7 12.1 5.6 6.7 9.4 7.5 5.5 CJ E&M 25.7 19.1 16.2 0.3 20.9 9.2 20.4 18.2 9.9 24.6 9.2 10.2 17.2 13.1 8.0 CJ O Shopping (consolidated) 0.5 1.5 0.1 7.0 3.3 3.8 4.6 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 3.5 3.5 2.5 3.2 Commerce (net sales) 4.1 7.2 0.4 3.1 (0.9) (2.2) 3.4 2.3 3.6 3.1 3.3 6.4 0.6 4.2 5.5 CJ Hello (0.8) (1.6) (0.7) 11.2 4.1 5.6 4.7 1.5 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.5 4.0 0.8 0.8 OP growth 15.4 26.3 14.5 208.8 14.2 (10.5) 40.9 52.4 15.2 45.5 6.8 12.9 20.5 19.3 7.0 E&M 162.2 67.2 316.3 83.4 47.6 25.0 165.7 855.8 19.4 90.5 10.3 20.4 107.2 33.3 7.2 Commerce 6.6 43.7 12.4 (14.9) 12.0 (25.7) 19.0 7.7 8.1 23.0 5.3 8.8 1.0 10.9 6.9 CJ Hello (26.2) (20.7) (22.0) TP (25.4) (17.7) (9.7) (1.0) 27.1 9.8 2.8 8.8 (13.5) 11.3 6.4 NP growth 14.1 24.1 12.9 158.0 13.1 (22.2) 3.7 9.9 (9.1) 28.1 8.7 13.0 (0.2) 8.8 6.9 OPM 8.4 8.9 6.2 5.6 8.6 7.5 7.8 7.9 9.4 9.8 7.9 8.3 8.0 8.9 9.0 NPM 9.1 9.6 6.9 6.2 9.3 7.0 6.4 6.3 8.0 8.0 6.6 6.6 7.2 7.3 7.4 Source: Company data, Shinhan Investment Corp.
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