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Property Lending Barometer 2018

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Property Lending Barometer 2018 Property Lending Barometer 2018 A survey of banks on the prospects for real estate sector lending in Europe kpmg.ie 2 / Property Lending Barometer 2016 Property Lending Barometer 2018 Introduction 3 Dear Reader, It is our pleasure to present the Property JOUIFTFDPVOUSJFT5IF#BSPNFUFS Lending Barometer 2018, which is the includes input from close to 70 banks 9th edition of our annual survey of banks’ active in these markets, collected SFBMFTUBUFěOBODJOH5IJTSFQPSUSFWFBMT QSJNBSJMZWJBJOEFQUIJOUFSWJFXTBOE insights into lending market conditions online questionnaires. Representatives in a range of countries in Europe and GSPNMFBEJOHěOBODJBMJOTUJUVUJPOTIBWF also gives a separate snapshot of the provided their views on the key issues participating countries to highlight their JOĜVFODJOHQSPQFSUZMFOEJOH unique market characteristics. 5IFěSTUIBMGPGUIJTSFQPSUQSPWJEFTBO Andrea Sartori 5IFQVSQPTFPGPVSSFQPSUJTUPBTTFTT overview of the European market as a Partner, the prospects and sentiment for bank whole, by focusing on key issues such Survey co-ordinator ěOBODJOHJOUIFSFBMFTUBUFTFDUPSJO as the strategic importance of real estate Head of Real Estate Europe based on interviews conducted ěOBODJOHGPSCBOLT UIFQSPQPSUJPOPG in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) with bank representatives from 14 impaired loans and bank representatives’ E: [email protected] European countries. views on how to manage these loans. We also consider areas such as various 5IFSFDFOUMZQPTJUJWFHSPXUIQFSJPE banks’ average and preferred loan of the European economy is likely to size, as well as the length of their continue, though at a more moderate loan contract term. Furthermore, we pace. Unemployment is decreasing, have also taken the opportunity for disposable income is expected to OFXěOBODJOHBOECBOLTijBTTFUDMBTT th JODSFBTF CVUJOĜBUJPOIBTCFHVOUP preferences into consideration. 9 increase and interest rates may not annual edition remain unchanged for the medium term. 5IFTFDPOEIBMGPGUIFSFQPSUJODMVEFT of the survey 5FOTJPOTJOHMPCBMUSBEF TMPX#SFYJU BQSPěMFGPSFBDIDPVOUSZTVSWFZFE negotiations and the unresolved refugee In those sections we have addressed crisis in Europe overshadow long term the prospects and terms available for prospects for growth. EFWFMPQFSTBOEJOWFTUPSTUPěOBODFOFX SFBMFTUBUFEFWFMPQNFOUTBOEJODPNF A sustained growth tendency of lending generating properties, and survey Interviews conducted with activity in Europe is likely to prevail participants’ expectations for the next banks from in 2018, supported by eased lending NPOUIT conditions and stable demand since 2014. Competitive pressure in the We would like to take this opportunity to 14 ěOBODJOHTFDUPSBOEGBWPSBCMFPVUMPPL thank all of those who participated in this regarding risk have also spurred overall TVSWFZ5IFJSDPPQFSBUJPOXBTLFZUP European growth in lending. Further easing of the success of this initiative. countries credit terms and increasing loan demand are expected to have a positive effect 8FIPQFZPVXJMMěOEPVSSFQPSU POěOBODJOHCPUIDPSQPSBUJPOTBOE informative and enlightening in IPVTFIPMET5IF&VSPQFBONBSLFUGPS supporting your future business loan portfolios saw a return to growth EFDJTJPOTSFMBUFEUPSFBMFTUBUFěOBODJOH Close to JO5IFUPUBMWBMVFPGSFBMFTUBUF If you would like to receive any backed loan portfolio sales reached over DMBSJěDBUJPOPSEJTDVTTUIJTZFBSijTTVSWFZ EUR 100 billion for a third consecutive results, please feel free to contact us 70 year, at a record EUR 114 billion. or any member of KPMG’s Real Estate banks Advisory Practice. surveyed 5IJTSFQPSUJTBOBOBMZTJTPGUIFěOEJOHT of our survey of the leading banks active Yours sincerely, Andrea Sartori Table of contents Overview of the European 7 real estate market Managing impaired loans 12 ProspFDUTGPSSFBMFTUBUF 15 loan portfolios 0QQPSUVOJUJFTGPSěOBODJOH 18 OFXSFBMFTUBUFQSPKFDUT Closing the gap: 27 UIFDPOWFSHFODFPGUIF$&&SFHJPO $PODMVTJPOT 31 $PVOUSZQSPěMFT 33 Property Lending Barometer 2018 Our methodology 5 .FUIPEPMPHZBOETBNQMFQSPěMF Central & Eastern European (CEE) Survey limitations FDPOPNJFT5IFTFDPVOUSJFTBSFMPDBUFE 5IJTTVSWFZBJNTUPQSPWJEFBOBOBMZUJDBM either in Central or Eastern Europe, 5IFGPMMPXJOHMJNJUJOHGBDUPSTTIPVMECF overview of the current approach of including the Balkans. Due to their noted: CBOLTUPSFBMFTUBUFěOBODJOHJO&VSPQF geographic proximity and comparable Lending institutions from the following stages of economic development, it – 8IFOUIFBOTXFSTHJWFOUPTQFDJěD countries are represented in the 2018 is our assumption they share similar RVFTUJPOTXFSFOPUTVGěDJFOUUP survey: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, BEWBOUBHFTBOEDIBMMFOHFT5IFHSPVQJOH provide reliable information on a Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Hungary, includes Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech TQFDJěDDPVOUSZ XFIBWFJOEJDBUFE Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland, Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, this, or the country was omitted from Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Slovakia and Serbia, Slovakia and Slovenia. that part of the analysis. Sweden. 0UIFS&VSPQFBOFDPOPNJFT In contrast – In the case of some parameters and 5IFEBUBGPSUIFTVSWFZ1 were primarily to the CEE markets, the category DSPTTUBCVMBUJPOT TVSWFZěOEJOHT DPMMFDUFEUISPVHIJOEFQUIJOUFSWJFXT “Other European Economies” consists may be considered indicative but not with bank representatives and via of countries from across Europe, most representative due to the low number online questionnaires. Depending on of them representing more mature real of responses to some questions. the survey participants’ organizational estate markets. Due to their economic structure, interviewees were the capabilities, they provide a benchmark for – As in previous years, our assessment IFBETPGSFBMFTUBUF QSPKFDUěOBODJOH BTTFTTJOHEBUBGSPN$&&5IJTDBUFHPSZ of the residential sector excluded or risk management departments. includes Austria, Cyprus, the Ireland, the residential projects whose Banks were selected from among the Netherlands and Sweden. construction costs were below EUR MFBEJOHěOBODJBMJOTUJUVUJPOTPQFSBUJOH 10 million. JOFBDIJOEJWJEVBMDPVOUSZ5IFTVSWFZ participants entailed nearly 70 banks, all of which were active in the real estate market in Europe over the last year. Data collection for this survey took place from May to July 2018. "MNPTUUXPUIJSETPGTVSWFZQBSUJDJQBOU banks were local, i.e. those operating predominantly within one European country, whilst the rest were mainly regional banks; some multinational banks also participated. Comparison of surveyed countries Based on the countries geographic locations, we have created the following two categories for the purposes of our analysis: Source: KPMG Property Lending Barometer, 2018 Geographic abbreviations AUT – Austria; BEL – Belgium; BUL – Bulgaria; CEE – Central & Eastern Europe; CRO – Croatia; CYP – Cyprus; CZE – Czech Republic; DEN – Denmark; EMA – Europe, Middle East and Africa; GER – Germany; HUN – Hungary; IRE – Ireland; ITA – Italy; NLD – Netherlands; POL – Poland; ROM – Romania; SRB – Serbia; SVK – Slovakia; ESP – Spain; SWE – Sweden; GBR – United Kingdom; WE – Western Europe 1 The survey also uses information obtained from public sources, which KPMG believe to be reliable. These market reports were published in 2017 and 2018 by BNP Paribas Real Estate, $PMMJFST*OUFSOBUJPOBM $VTINBO8BLFěFME &DPOPNJTU*OUFMMJHFODF6OJU &)- &VSPQFBO$FOUSBM#BOL +POFT-BOH-BTBMMF .(3FBM&TUBUF 3FBM$BQJUBM"OBMZUJDT *.' 0&$% and Societe Generale. Property Lending Barometer 2018 6 Overview of the European real estate market Average GDP growth forecast (2018 - 2020)* Central & Eastern European economies Other European economies Sweden 2.23% Ireland 3.80% Netherlands 2.17% Poland 3.53% Czech Republic 2.97% Slovakia Austria 3.53% 2.17% Hungary Slovenia 2.87% 3.60% Croatia 2.70% Serbia 3.30% *Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Property Lending Barometer 2018 Overview of the European real estate market 7 Overview of the European real estate market Macroeconomic outlook of the region DPNNPOFYQFDUBUJPOSFHBSEJOHUIFTIPSU term future of oil prices. Eased lending Following the weak growth period after conditions, increasing loan demand and the economic crisis, the global economy consistently low interest rates in previous is in a phase of steady improvement. years caused an increase in the value of 5IFVOFNQMPZNFOUSBUFJOUIF&VSPQFBO certain assets, including real estate. In Union has been decreasing since spite of the recently increased interest 2013 and is anticipated to reach its rates in the USA, European rates are lowest level in 40 years. In line with not expected to increase this year, until the relative scarcity of labour, real the quantitative easing policy set by the wages are projected to rise in several European Central Bank ends, with the countries, while household income is exception of the UK where the Bank of likely to continue its robust growth trend England raised interest to its highest manifested since the millennium. since 2009. In this context, the trajectory of the European economy may be Average real GDP growth in the countries JOĜVFODFECZBSBOHFPGSJTLGBDUPST Romania included in this year’s survey was 4.1% 3.73% last year, which signals accelerated Besides the potentially detrimental growth compared to previous years. impact of a slowing Chinese economy, 'PSFDBTUTJOEJDBUFNPSFNPEFSBUFCVU there is also a risk of a deepening trade Bulgaria robust growth in the next few years, with war between China and the USA, with all countries growing by less than 4% in far reaching consequences on global % 3.03 2019, and the average growth for these trade. Political uncertainties and threats to economies reaching 2.4% by 2020.
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