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Avison Young Commercial Real Estate Investment Review Fall 2018 Avison Young Commercial Real Estate Investment Review North America and Europe Partnership. Performance. Contents Overview 05 Canada Investment Market Overview 43 Memphis 71 London 11 U.S. Investment Market Overview 44 Miami 72 Manchester 45 Minneapolis Canada 46 Nashville Germany 17 Calgary 47 New Jersey 74 Berlin 18 Edmonton 48 New York 75 Duesseldorf Montreal 19 49 Oakland 76 Frankfurt 20 Ottawa 50 Orange County 77 Hamburg 21 Toronto Orlando 51 78 Munich Vancouver 22 52 Philadelphia Phoenix Romania United States 53 Pittsburgh 54 80 Bucharest 24 Atlanta 55 Raleigh-Durham 25 Austin 56 Sacramento More from Avison Young 26 Boston San Antonio 57 Company Overview 27 Charlotte 84 58 San Diego County 28 Chicago 86 Publications and Social Media 59 San Francisco 29 Cleveland 87 Contact Us 60 San Jose/Silicon Valley 30 Columbus, OH 61 San Mateo 31 Dallas 62 St. Louis 32 Denver 63 Tampa 33 Detroit Washington, DC 34 Fairfield County 64 West Palm Beach 35 Fort Lauderdale 65 Westchester County 36 Hartford 66 37 Houston Mexico 38 Indianapolis 39 Jacksonville 68 Mexico City Disclaimer 40 Las Vegas United Kingdom The statistics contained in this report were obtained from sources deemed reliable, including Altus InSite, Avison Young, Collette, Plante & Associés, Commercial Edge, CoStar Group 41 Long Island Inc., Desjarlais Prévost Inc., Gettel Network, Property Data Ltd., Real Capital Analytics, Inc., RealNet Canada, RealTrack, Reis Services, LLC, and Thomas Daily GmbH. However, Avison Young (Canada) Inc. does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, nor does it assume any responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. All opinions 42 Los Angeles 70 Coventry expressed and data provided herein are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be reproduced in part or in full in any format without the prior written consent of Avison Young (Canada) Inc. 2 Avison Young Fall 2018 Commercial Real Estate Investment Review avisonyoung.com 3 Contents Overview 05 Canada Investment Market Overview 43 Memphis 71 London 11 U.S. Investment Market Overview 44 Miami 72 Manchester 45 Minneapolis Canada 46 Nashville Germany 17 Calgary 47 New Jersey 74 Berlin 18 Edmonton 48 New York 75 Duesseldorf Montreal 19 49 Oakland 76 Frankfurt 20 Ottawa 50 Orange County 77 Hamburg 21 Toronto Orlando 51 78 Munich Vancouver 22 52 Philadelphia Phoenix Romania United States 53 Pittsburgh 54 80 Bucharest 24 Atlanta 55 Raleigh-Durham 25 Austin 56 Sacramento More from Avison Young 26 Boston San Antonio 57 Company Overview 27 Charlotte 84 58 San Diego County 28 Chicago 86 Publications and Social Media 59 San Francisco 29 Cleveland 87 Contact Us 60 San Jose/Silicon Valley 30 Columbus, OH 61 San Mateo 31 Dallas 62 St. Louis 32 Denver 63 Tampa 33 Detroit Washington, DC 34 Fairfield County 64 West Palm Beach 35 Fort Lauderdale 65 Westchester County 36 Hartford 66 37 Houston Mexico 38 Indianapolis 39 Jacksonville 68 Mexico City Disclaimer 40 Las Vegas United Kingdom The statistics contained in this report were obtained from sources deemed reliable, including Altus InSite, Avison Young, Collette, Plante & Associés, Commercial Edge, CoStar Group 41 Long Island Inc., Desjarlais Prévost Inc., Gettel Network, Property Data Ltd., Real Capital Analytics, Inc., RealNet Canada, RealTrack, Reis Services, LLC, and Thomas Daily GmbH. However, Avison Young (Canada) Inc. does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, nor does it assume any responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. All opinions 42 Los Angeles 70 Coventry expressed and data provided herein are subject to change without notice. This report cannot be reproduced in part or in full in any format without the prior written consent of Avison Young (Canada) Inc. 2 Avison Young Fall 2018 Commercial Real Estate Investment Review avisonyoung.com 3 Canada Investment Market Overview Investor enthusiasm fuelled by sound economic and property fundamentals Investors remain enthusiastic about Canada’s commercial property market, despite uncertainty surrounding rising interest rates, the lateness of the investment cycle and – in particular – scarcity of available product to meet insatiable demand. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and financial volatility, Canada is still viewed globally as a safe haven given the country’s stable economic and political climate and sound property market fundamentals. Toronto and Vancouver remain the primary destinations for investor capital, but investment was relatively evenly distributed among the asset classes nationwide in first-half 2018. Office product is attracting its share of capital as the influx of technology and co-working firms adds to demand from traditional sectors. Ongoing urban intensification is not only impacting the office sector, but rising population density and the strong links between the industrial and retail sectors – resulting from the growth of e-commerce and last-mile logistics – mean that both asset types are garnering investors’ attention. Meanwhile, tight housing supply is driving multi-family investment, yielding the lowest cap rates. With development robust in all sectors, the scarcity of developable land has put land sales on pace for a record year. The first half of 2018 was notable not only for direct investment in commercial real estate assets, but also multi-billion-dollar M&A activity in the industry with headline transactions, including Choice Properties REIT’s purchase of CREIT and Blackstone’s acquisition of PIRET. At the same time, Canadian capital continued to flow into the U.S. as trade-agreement negotiations and political uncertainty did not dampen investors’ interest in assets south of the border. In a world of moderating returns, investors are looking to capitalize on landlord- favouring markets and sectors offering significant rental-rate growth – pushing beyond pure-play acquisitions to redevelopment and upgrade opportunities – while debt reduction and geographic diversification continue. For the near term, asset values will remain elevated and cap rates low. 4 Avison Young Fall 2018 Commercial Real Estate Investment Review avisonyoung.com 5 Canada Investment Market Overview Investor enthusiasm fuelled by sound economic and property fundamentals Investors remain enthusiastic about Canada’s commercial property market, despite uncertainty surrounding rising interest rates, the lateness of the investment cycle and – in particular – scarcity of available product to meet insatiable demand. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and financial volatility, Canada is still viewed globally as a safe haven given the country’s stable economic and political climate and sound property market fundamentals. Toronto and Vancouver remain the primary destinations for investor capital, but investment was relatively evenly distributed among the asset classes nationwide in first-half 2018. Office product is attracting its share of capital as the influx of technology and co-working firms adds to demand from traditional sectors. Ongoing urban intensification is not only impacting the office sector, but rising population density and the strong links between the industrial and retail sectors – resulting from the growth of e-commerce and last-mile logistics – mean that both asset types are garnering investors’ attention. Meanwhile, tight housing supply is driving multi-family investment, yielding the lowest cap rates. With development robust in all sectors, the scarcity of developable land has put land sales on pace for a record year. The first half of 2018 was notable not only for direct investment in commercial real estate assets, but also multi-billion-dollar M&A activity in the industry with headline transactions, including Choice Properties REIT’s purchase of CREIT and Blackstone’s acquisition of PIRET. At the same time, Canadian capital continued to flow into the U.S. as trade-agreement negotiations and political uncertainty did not dampen investors’ interest in assets south of the border. In a world of moderating returns, investors are looking to capitalize on landlord- favouring markets and sectors offering significant rental-rate growth – pushing beyond pure-play acquisitions to redevelopment and upgrade opportunities – while debt reduction and geographic diversification continue. For the near term, asset values will remain elevated and cap rates low. 4 Avison Young Fall 2018 Commercial Real Estate Investment Review avisonyoung.com 5 Notable First-Half 2018 Canadian Investment Market Highlights Canadian Investment Market Snapshot After pouring a record $36.2 billion into commercial real Given robust construction activity across the country, ICI estate assets across Canada’s six major markets in 2017, land was in high demand. In all, $3.8 billion worth of land investors placed another $17.7 billion in first-half 2018 – parcels changed hands in the first half of the year – the down a modest $1.3 billion, or 7%, from the first half of only sector to post notable year-over-year growth in sales 2017. Though office was the most sought-after asset type (+82%). The land sector was exceptionally hot in Toronto $17.7 BILLION among investors, retail, ICI land and industrial were not far and Vancouver as annual sales in each market nearly 4.3% CAP RATE Total investment volume in behind. doubled to $1.8 billion and $1 billion, respectively. Average for Vancouver Canada during first-half 2018 vs. $19 billion in first-half 2017 and Toronto, the top investment location, ($8.2 billion/46% The value of industrial acquisitions inched up 1% year- vs. Canada average of 5.1% share) outstripped Vancouver ($5.1 billion/29% share) from over-year to $3.3 billion at the midway point of 2018, $36.2 billion in all of 2017 one year earlier as the two markets combined for three- while cap rates compressed in nearly every market. Buyers quarters of total first-half 2018 dollar volume. Toronto continued to seek product in one of North America’s attracted the most capital in four of the five sectors, biggest and tightest industrial markets, Toronto – which placing second to Vancouver only in retail asset sales.
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