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Capstone Project Title MASTER of SCIENCE in REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT PARKVIEW VISTAS Christopher Dixon December 15, 2011 Johns Hopkins University Advisor: Coleman Rector Professor: Dr. Michael Anikeeff TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 Project Overview Investment Highlights Major Findings Sources and Uses Project Financial Highlights DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 11 Multi-Family Retail SITE AND PROPERTY DESCRIPTION 14 The Site The Immediate Area Transportation Network and Traffic Site Physical and Zoning Characteristics Apartment Location Analysis MARKET ANALYSIS 35 Multifamily Top Down Analysis Significant Competitors Retail Top Down Analysis New Development Pipeline and Summary DEVELOPMENT ISSUES 79 Parking Construction /Excavation Above Metro Traffic Abutting Residential Political/Legal Environment Macroeconomic Concerns DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION COSTS 90 SCHEDULE 93 FINANCIALS 96 Base Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Worst Case Scenario PROJECT MANAGEMENT PLAN 118 Parkview VistasParkview CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 127 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY view Vistas Park 2 II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. Project Overview MIP Development will develop Parkview Vistas, a 40,000 sf, 5-story mixed use project at 3661 Georgia Avenue in order to meet a clear need for residential housing and retail in the submarket located near the Petworth/Georgia Avenue Metro Station. Our project will stand approximately 70 feet and will contain 4 levels of multifamily, 1 underground parking deck with 20 spaces, and 10,000 sf of first floor retail. The 4 floors of multifamily will include 6 studios, 7 2BR/2BA, and 25 1BR/1BA for a total of 38 units. Metro Investment Properties will make best efforts to lease the entire 10,000 sf retail space to one large “destination” retailer. The underground parking deck will include approximately 20 spaces to accommodate both retail and multi- family use. Metro Investment Properties will sell the entire building 2 years after stabilization at the end of 2015. Parkview Vistas will cost approximately $11.1 MM to build ($278/sf) and require an equity investment of approximately $1.5MM. MIP Development will provide 10% of the equity and we are seeking an additional 90% of the equity from our investment partners. In our base case scenario, we projected rents at rates below our best competitors and expect project returns of 28% IRR. In our worst case scenario, where we significantly lowered our income projections and increased our initial equity, the project shows an Internal Rate of Return of .23%. In our best case scenario, we assumed that we can achieve the same rents two years from now that our best competitors are receiving today and that we can achieve a 53% IRR. Parkview VistasParkview 3 II. Investment Highlights 1. 28% Project IRR in conservative base case scenario 2. 10% Year 1 Cash on Cash Returns 3. Metro-Oriented Development 4. High demand for new multifamily and retail product 5. 5% submarket vacancy; 2% for new buildings 6. Conservative LTV at 66% for multifamily 7. Development Team has strong track record in this submarket 8. Experienced general contractor mitigates construction risk 9. At least 14 new projects built or breaking ground since 2008 10. Market leader Donatelli Development has a large project across the street. III. Sources and Uses DEBT PROCEEDS $9,619,166 ACQUISTION $2,178,000 REQUIRED EQUITY 1,504,557 CONSTRUCTION 7,219,982 PERMITS 55,000 UTILITIES 107,500 ARCHITECT & ENGINEERING 376,800 LEGAL 105,000 FINANCING 18,800 CARRYING COSTS & RESERVES 171,000 MISC & OTHER 294,000 CAPITALIZED INTEREST 108,000 SOFT COST CONTINGENCY 61,805 SUBTOTAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS$10,695,887 DEVELOPER FEES 427,835 TOTAL SOURCES $11,123,722 TOTAL USES $11,123,722 view Vistas Park 4 IV. Major Findings - Submarket Renters pay large premium near the metro- while researching the planned projects and developments in the submarket we found that this submarket shows a pronounced change in demand the closer you get to the metro station. Many of the property managers specifically mentioned that properties within 2-3 blocks of the metro have a different demand and perception of safety than properties only 1-2 blocks away. A new 1 Bedroom unit 3 blocks from the metro rents for almost $1psf less than a new unit at the metro station. Very old product/Demand outpaces supply- The vast majority of the multi-family product in the submarket is over 50 years old. While this is the case in many DC submarkets this submarket has not seen the massive wave of unit renovations as seen in other nearby submarkets in Columbia Heights, Dupont Circle, and Logan Circle. Extremely low vacancy- A second major driver in our decision to move forward with this project centers around the extremely low vacancy in the submarket. Despite the outdated rental product rents continue to surge higher than one would expect. 4-5% submarket vacancy and closer to 2% vacancy in new buildings Follow Donatelli Development- With thousands of absorbed new residential units recently built or coming online, renovations to the Safeway, and new retailers opening shops this neighborhood is the “next” neighborhood in NW DC. MAC realty says that the neighborhood resembles U Street of 10 years ago and Columbia Heights of 3 years ago. Donatelli’s developments at metro stations near U Street and Parkview VistasParkview 5 Columbia Heights led to the regenerations of those neighborhoods. Small and mid- sized developers will fare well following Donatelli Development. If Donatelli builds it, they will come. Lack of Retail has led to Immense Leakage- Residents of the area around the Georgia Avenue Metro Station have suffered for years. There is 1 pharmacy and 1 sit down restaurant that both opened in 2010 and not much else. Residents refuse to shop at the Safeway which is scheduled to be demolished in 2012, opting instead to shop for basic goods in Columbia Heights, other parts of the city, and even worse in Maryland. Project Unit Mix- Our market Analysis found that this submarket had an extremely high demand for individual occupancy. Therefore we dedicated the majority of the square footage of the building to an optimal mix of one bedrooms and studios Price Per Square Foot- With smaller units we found that we could push the price per square foot numbers very close to our higher end competitors while staying within the affordability target for our profile tenant, the 22-34 year old renter. Tenant Profile- The submarket has traditionally attracted families that live in apartment buildings longer than the traditional renter and single persons who could not afford to live in more desired neighborhoods to the west. Market research shows that the most recent tenants that have moved into new buildings tend to purposely choose this submarket because of its affordability, proximity to downtown offices and entertainment districts, and its more suburban neighborhood feel. Our renters will view Vistas Park 6 lean more toward the older end of our 22-34 year old bracket and will likely have recently moved from some of the more desired neighborhoods to the west. Parkview VistasParkview 7 IV. Project Financial Highlights A. Base Case Executive Summary Parkview Vista Base Case Scenario 12/15/2011 SF RATE/SF Studios 2,550 $3.41 1BR/1BA 16,250 $3.00 Parking 20 $200.00 2BR/2BA 7,000 $2.80 Retail 10,000 $32.50 Total Size 35,800 Total Project Cost $11,123,722 Project Cost Per SF $278 Loan $9,619,166 Amortization 30 years Interest Rate 6.500% Financial Ratios Net Operating Income (NOI) $875,515 (year 1) Cap Rate 6.00% Project Value $14,591,921 (year 1) Loan to Cost (LTC) 86% (year 1) Loan to Value (LTV) 66% (year 1) Debt Coverage Ratio (DCR) 1.200 (year 1) Year 1 Cash Flow $145,919 (year 1) Year 1 Cash/Cash (BT) 10% (year 1) Equity Requirement Total Equity Required $1,504,557 Number of Partners 2 Equity Partners $1,354,101 90% MIP Development Equity $150,456 10% R.O.E (IRR)- 10 yr Hold 19% R.O.E (IRR)- 2 yr Hold 28% view Vistas Park 8 B. WORST CASE Executive Summary Parkview Vista Worst Case Scenario 12/15/2011 SF RATE/SF Studios 2,550 $3.28 1BR/1BA 16,250 $2.92 Parking 20 $175.00 2BR/2BA 7,000 $2.50 Retail 8,000 $30.00 Total Rentable SF 33,800 Total Project Cost $11,181,336 Project Cost Per SF $1,397.67 Loan $8,545,164 Amortization 30 years Interest Rate 6.500% Financial Ratios Net Operating Income (NOI) $777,762 (year 1) Cap Rate 6.50% Project Value $11,965,570 (year 1) Loan to Cost (LTC) 76% (year 1) Loan to Value (LTV) 71% (year 1) Debt Coverage Ratio (DCR) 1.200 (year 1) Year 1 Cash Flow $129,627 (year 1) Year 1 Cash/Cash (BT) 5% (year 1) Equity Requirement Total Equity Required $2,636,172 Number of Partners 2 Equity Partners $2,372,554 90% MIP Development Equity $263,617 10% R.O.E (IRR)- 10 yr Hold 6% R.O.E (IRR)- 2 yr Hold 0.23% Parkview VistasParkview 9 C. BEST CASE Executive Summary Petworth Vista Best Case Scenario 12/15/2011 SF RATE/SF Studios 2,550 $3.53 1BR 16,250 $3.22 Parking 20 $250.00 2BR/2BA 7,000 $3.00 Retail 10,000 $36.00 Total Size 35,800 Total Project Cost $11,181,336 Project Cost Per SF $280 Loan $9,504,136 Amortization 40 years Interest Rate 6.500% Financial Ratios Net Operating Income (NOI) $1,052,778 (year 1) Cap Rate 5.75% Project Value $18,309,183 (year 1) Loan to Cost (LTC) 85% (year 1) Loan to Value (LTV) 52% (year 1) Debt Coverage Ratio (DCR) 1.577 (year 1) Year 1 Cash Flow $385,067 (year 1) Year 1 Cash/Cash (BT) 23% (year 1) Equity Requirement Total Equity Required $1,677,200 Number of Partners 2 Equity Partners $1,509,480 90% MIP Development Equity $167,720 10% R.O.E (IRR)- 10 yr Hold 28% R.O.E (IRR)- 2 yr Hold 53% view Vistas Park 10 DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Parkview VistasParkview 11 II.
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