H1 2020 | Croatia 1 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
FORECAST FORECAST REPORT
CROATIA
H1 | 2020 | H1 RESEARCH AND OVERVIEW MARKET
H1 2020 | Croatia 2
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International C
ONTENT About Colliers About Market Residential Investment HTL Market and Industrial Market Retail Market Office Overview Economic S
ummary
Market
Logistics Market Logistics
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 3
H1 2020 | Croatia 3 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
- d a
hift hift the the the the
scale scale - sector sector in
A s s increase might turn turn might
economy is in in 2021, with
vacancy vacancy rate is the the
latest inlatest 2023. recovery in 2021. in recovery
the the
the
is is expected to remain by by the state of the retail retail sector is mostly
recovering
industrial/ industrial/ logistic looking looking for distressed the the Pricing Pricing is expected to be
the the recast ffected demand Fo a significant drop is expected,
a '
s summer season of 2020 of season summer sharp drop 2020, in for for prime properties, although some
a nomy, nomy, primarily employment level and expected to continue. With suit (BTS) projects. suit (BTS) - Expansion in expected from food continue. shoppingtowards online will retailers. Expansion in is interest and activity from developers, expansion of modern stock is expected in the next years, especially with new build to Although tourism better than expected at the start in expected is rebound strong A pandemic. of the 2021, and a return to the forecasted 2022 or in 2019 level is The residential real estate market demand will be eco foreign from interest strong is There wages. developers, especially indevelopment Zagreb. projects for large Market After expected to start GDP growth of around 7.5%, according to the Commission. European Investor strong investors are opportunities. mostly affected by the properties. the underlying of performance changes Class A office buildings should be able to ride out a sharpshort and shock economic strong a is there provided Due to limited pipeline, stable expected to remain The The 19, major 19, major - . to contract open their
up, up, the major - to to
majority of deals logistic logistic sector, the
/
lds remained at the
channel and pharma the
based schemes proved proved schemes based
began - .
industrial crisis level. crisis
- rends or slightly increased or
occupied occupied and outdated. the T - many many companies shifted towards r
due due to low vacancy and limited mostly affected by preventive
operators
trongest demand comes from companies
hotel capacities partially Number of decreased in H1 2020 for 23% compared apartment while before, year the of period same the to transactions asking prices in major cities remained at 2019levels Growth Growth of least developed CRE sector in continued Croatia, with several stock theof most as strong, still isDemand new openings. is owne s in the grocery, omni related fields. product As the measures introduced to prevent the pandemic started to loosen in May 2020 and tourist activity picked same level as in 2019. same in as level Although rents average lockdown, amid work remote for Class A offices in stable Zagreb remained supply. While shopping centres and high were street grocery measures, more resilient. To To counter the spread of COVID containment measures were introduced in the and Europe of parts other in as Croatia, world. Real GDP is expected sharply in 2020 (close to output the leaving 2021, in recover partially 11%) and to itsbelow pre In H1 2020, investment transaction commercial volume exceeded real €210 estate million, with done in Q1 2020. Yie Recent
UMMARY
S H1 2020 | Croatia 4
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
ratingthree major of credit agencies. Croatia investment as seen is rating Therefore, outlook). (positive Poor BBB Fitch at: stand Croatia for ratings credit Major before. over the month 0.4% of increase real a represented which (€870), HRK 6,655 toamounted 2020 May of Bureau Croatian Statistics, the average monthly net salary the in to According the 2020). with (comp 2020 reverse, June into in 9.1% to rising rate unemployment gone now has pattern this but outbreak, coronavirus the to prior down trending been had rate unemployment adjusted seasonally The of 10% around GDP.Croatian at estimated citizens support to package impact from economic negative to the tried mitigate has government Croatian The 2019. of quarter same the to compared as 2020, of quarter first the in 0.4% by increased terms real Statistics from estimate The crisis. financial global 2008 the of onset the more at been a had it than in position resilient was economy the Croatia, COVID the When Summary ' s BBB s COVID
Croatia - Credit rating of(as July 2020)
shows that the that shows -
-
sal otok, tnad & Standard outlook), (stable
(stable outlook), Moodyoutlook), (stable rd o .% n February in 6.9% to ared -
Outlook
Agency 9 by 19
Rating
- the the 9 admc reached pandemic 19 the the
Croatian Bureau of Bureau Croatian
quarterly GDP in in GDP quarterly anti cnm an economy - grade by two by grade - coronavirus
stable
BBB-
S&P '
s Ba2 Ba2 s ' d s the exchange rate mechanism ERM mechanism rate exchange the entered formally It adoption. euro for plans its on progress has made government The e wage and government the to thanks down, slowed been have toappear layoffs scale large as recover should with the ofquickly reopening the economy, consumption Private first half of 2020 and its recovery thereafter. d main the be to expected is demand Domestic 7.5% in 2021. of 2021. growth GDP by followed 2020, in 10.8% of in recovery European Commission start forecasts GDP drop is to economy 2020, expected in drop sharp After Forecast reforms in 2021. reforms aannounced has new of round tax taxes.with However, high government the economyThe burdened Croatian remains and 0.9% 2020 2021. in in Economics Oxford expects inflation in Croatia weak to average 0.6% outlook, the and prices demand oil in fall drastic the with But of fuel. transport cost and the housing in increases by up pushed st the at Inflation 2023. from expected is Eurozone into currency. Entrance stable a maintain now should
positive river of both the drop in GDP in the in GDP in drop the both of river
Mood'y
Ba2 mployment mployment supportmeasures.
Source:Trading Economics
art of 2020 was at 2.0%, at was 2020 of art
stable
Fitch
BBB- - 2 and and 2
' s
H1 2020 | Croatia 5 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Real Nominal Croatian Bureau of Statistics Figure| 3: Croatian Bureau ofStatistics 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 5,0% 5,0% 0,0% 95 90 85 -1,0% -2,0% 15,0% 10,0% 25,0% 20,0% 130 125 120 115 110 105 100
-
– (GDP, (GDP,
: : : 3 2 1 Sources: Figure 1:Croatian Bureau of Statistics Figure | 2: UNEMPLOYMENT IN RATE CROATIA Figure Figure (2015=100) RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER SEASONALLY WORKING AND DAY ADJUSTED INDICES Figure Figure ann. var. %) Figure Figure ECONOMIC GROWTH H1 2020 | Croatia 6
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International OFFICE MARKET
A modern Class in office buildings. temporary dema a created This buildings. office respective their to damages structural to due offices and their in work to unable were damaged tenants many were center city Zagreb in buildings historic Several scale. Richter history, recent its in earthquake powerful most the 22nd, March On officeflexible is therefore setto increase. for Demand remotely. to working decide continue they if envisioned previously as space office much as require not which may companies for paradigm solution workplace of change a brought This do). still (some remotely working employees their had companies many gathering, and travel of restrictions mandated the During resilient. to proved be more m from government bodies, technical, IT, strong companies a with some services professional tourism, (e.g. companies distressed the on dependent properties to limited mostly was Exposure to occupier preserve order short granted and situation the of extremity the accepted landlords Some deferments. rent or deductions rent negotiating been have Covid of result a As the market. disrupted and outbreak 19 Covid 2020 H1 in However, 2020. of start The office sector was looking positive at the DemandSupply & , -
term rent deferment or deductions in deductions or deferment rent term operators, events tour/ airlines, ih mgiue f . o the on 5.5 of magnitude a with dcl pamcuia have pharmaceutical edical/ nd nd hike for office premises 2020, the
,
-
19 etc.) arb earthquake Zagreb
Zagreb was hit by hit was Zagreb
,
ay occupiers many , relationships.
whereas thosewhereas
-
provided provided there is a strong recovery in 2021. economic shock sharp and short a out ride to able be should buildings office A Class to delivered the market. until stable vacancy rate and average rents will the that expect We Zagreb. in €12.5/m² at remained rent office effective net A Class 2020 H1 in 5% below a The than 1,000 larger m (v quality of lack impending the before earthquake even apparent was Zagreb in spaces office of availability lower The Rents developed byare local investors. The m Pipeline expected to to expected be latecompleted in 2020. have approx. 10,500 m² office area and is Infobip Sv Company in building campus new their developing IT Croatian house road. bypass Zagreb GFA new of development the started Tehnika KFK have GFA. approx. m² of 30,000 will component Office floors. 27 become the is tallest building in Croatia with Split completed in Tower Dalmatia in building second a be will and GTC by developed m 10,700 has B Matrix was 2020 H1 Matrix B in Zagreb Business District East. in completion to close building office new significant most The acancy less than 5%), especially those those especially 5%), than less acancy . Klara, south Zagreb. The Campus will
projects ajority of under constructi eae aac rt rmie at remained rate vacancy verage office sche office n ui, ot Zge, ln the along Zagreb, south Buzin, in the Nova TV HQ a nd nd Vacancy Rate
H .
the the new n will and wvr i eaebtd the exacerbated it owever, Matrix Park. Office me large 2 .
of approx. 15,600 m² 15,600 approx. of y h ed f 2020 of end the by , -
scale scale hl te average the while h poet will property The
2 and studios. and
lettable area, is area, lettable C as offices A lass
rjcs are projects
remain nearly
on
is
H1 2020 | Croatia 7 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Total Gross Floor Area Floor Gross Total 12,5% 10,0% 7,5% 5,0% 2,5% 0,0% 20,0% 17,5% 15,0%
0 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000
H1
2020 5% 15.0/m² 9.5/m² 10.0/m² 14.0/m² 13.0/m²
H1 – – – – – – 0,000 m² 0,000 2020 4 2019 €12.5/m² 1,46 €4.0 Vacancy (right side) (right Vacancy €7.0 €7.0 €9.0 €5.0 €14.0 €14.0
2019 2018 Number of issued permits issued of Number
2018 2017
2017 2016 Addition
CROATIAN CITIES CROATIAN BureauStatistics of 2016 2015
ZAGREB OFFICE MARKET OFFICE ZAGREB 2
2014 2015
rate
A Monthly Rent Rent Monthly A
Split Rijeka Osijek 2013 2014 Prime Monthly Rent Monthly Prime Class Rent Monthly B Class Vacancy Total stock in m in stock Total 2012 Total Stock b.o.y Stock Total Gross Floor Area, m² (right side) (right m² Area, Floor Gross 2013 Average Average Average Average Average 0
800 900 40 30 20 10 70 60 50
1.500 1.400 1.300 1.200 1.100 1.000 permits building Issued ² m '000 in
RATE
20 20
1
: : : 6 5 4 Sources: Figure 4:Colliers InternationalFigure | Colliers 5: International Figure| 6: Croatian
CROATIAN OFFICE SECTOR: BUILDING PERMITS & ISSUED PLANNED FLOOR AREA Figure Figure STOCK VACANCY AND Figure Figure ZAGREB OFFICE MARKET FIGURES H (NET EFFECTIVE RENTS) Figure Figure KEY OFFICE MARKET H1 2020 | Croatia 8
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International RETAIL
MARKET eainhp, ot adod are to agreed landlords most relationships, client good preserve to order In landlords. their fromreductions rent negotiating been hit were who Tenants and windowvisibility micro di the on greatly depending €140/m²/month, to €30/m² from range Zagreb in levels rental street High to up 15 reach to (up premises smaller for can €50/m²/month centres p in shopping rent around base The stands €19/m²/month. currently weighted rent while average 3%, approx. is Zagreb in centres shopping prime in rate Vacancy a Rents open to plan Croatia. 100 stores in 2020 H2 They year. the of end the by 10 in additional Croatia in store discounter Eurospin, pace. slower Tommy) at but 2020, Lidl, H1 in expansion continued (Plodine, retailers Food mortar and brick stores the hurt might which future, the the in increase further to expected shopping, accelerated online to has transition lockdown The May 11 to for closed non most COVID the of spread the stop to implemented measures regulatory Decrease in retail sales of Bureau Croatian Statistics. the to according the to decreased in real terms by 6.6% compared working years recent in turnovers After Supply a 0 depending 0 on m², the sector). April 27 April
'
a ae eid f h peiu year, previous the of period same performance. th - day , 2020,
tay rwh f eal trade retail of growth steady
nd nd Vacancy Rate , - th business from March 19 March from business
seta gos trs were stores goods essential will enter the nd Demand , 2020 (and shopping malls till malls shopping (and 2020 , adjusted retail trade turnover trade retail adjusted ) .
splay width. is
market the -
, in H1 2020 H1 in , mainly due to the 19 pandemic, as pandemic, 19 an -
location, size, size, location, ads have hardest tla food Italian
with its
which
and th , 2020 , , rime rime
first
the an is a
New schemes May. some version of rent reliefs during April and Pipeline
2020. 2020. also park retail the within store its open will Eurospin others. and Yorker dm, C&A, include Tenants spaces. parking 450 m² and GLA 11,000 has property The Požega. open Supernova expected by springexpected 2021. invest will the centre, city Zagreb the in of mall shopping Centar owner Supernova, Kaptol underway. of Revitalization is expectedCompletion in 2021. Nekretnine Sensa G m² 75,000 have will It construction. under is (Špansko) Project at €24 estimated around mi Yorker New parking 310 in Tenants and places. stores 32 includes Dubrovnik. and cen shopping largest m² 22,000 With Makarska. Tommy
' " s Z
SPOT shoppi " a
in the western part of Zagreb Zagreb of part western the in , total of €15m. Complet €15m. of total
and ed the new retail park in park retail new the ed
clude Tommy, Muller, Tommy, clude other h s The eeos h project. the develops F Deichmann A. Local investor investor Local A. tre between Split Split between tre ng ng mall opened in s
Ivsmn is Investment . Source:novac.hr Source:novac.hr hopping mall mall hopping llion ,
. t is it
New ,
ion is is ion in H2 in
the is
H1 2020 | Croatia 9 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 H1 2020 H1
2019
21.0/m² 18/m² 17/m²
11/m²
- - – - <3%
€12.0/m² €9 490,000 m² 490,000 €12 €12 €17.0 €17.0 2018 Addition 2017
2016
SHOPPING CENTRE MARKET CENTRE SHOPPING
2015 Monthly Rent Monthly
Modern stock (m²) stock Modern side) right capita, (m²/city Density side) right capita, (m²/county Density ZAGREB 2014 Split Rijeka Osijek Total Stock b.o.y Stock Total CROATIAN CITIES CROATIAN Prime SC Vacancy SC Prime Total stock (approx.) stock Total 2013 Average Monthly Rent Monthly Average 0 - 800 600 400 200
Prime Weighted Average Weighted Prime
1.400 1.200 1.000
² m '000 in 200.000 100.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000
20 20
city city and county IGURES H1IGURES
: : : 9 8 7 Sources: Figure 7:Colliers InternationalFigure | 8: Focus Economics ColliersFigure | 9: International
MODERN SHOPPING CENTRE STOCK IN CROATIA (m²/capita; catchment area) Figure Figure MODERN RETAIL STOCK SUPPLY Figure Figure MARKET F Figure Figure KEY SHOPPING CENTRE H1 2020 | Croatia 10
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International INDUSTRIAL A
€4/m². to €2/m² from range premises industrial older for rents Average €5.5/m². of region the in are Zagreb in premises logistics for rents headline monthly Prime 2.5%. below remained stock modern in rate Vacancy Re of lack i availability overall the given up, deals pick occupiers willing other several deals, active be on not progressing may companies some although landlord growth. drive to likely and positive are needs Distribution fields. product related omni grocery, the in demand and requirements from companies in increase an been has there Conversely, been have projects hold.put on current unfold the will situation how ascertain companies hold on put been have deals leasing COVID of onset the Since Demand with new build especially years, next the in expected is developers increase the stock is owner Croatian market is very limited and most of warehouse/ Modern are Split near growing. Dugopolje and Zagreb Rijeka city, capital H the around and Majority of logistics stock is concentrated in least sector logistics and industrial in growth Despite Supply owever nts and nts Vacancy Rate eeoe CE etr n Croatia. in sector CRE developed
- d redy akt, hs en that means this markets, friendly ,
,
n then market. oe i Kklaoo near Kukuljanovo in zones ND LOGISTICS ND LOGISTICS the neet n atvt from activity and interest - to expansion of modern stock - suit -
occupied. h ps fw years few past the bt o far so but , logistics stock on the on stock logistics hne ad pharma and channel (BTS) projects.
- 19, some large large some 19,
However, with
is atn to waiting are there ,
o BTS no tl the still
until the
In . openings Significant Pipeline
was Zagreb. of north Trgovišće, GFA Automobili Rimac completed construction. Rijeka zone, Kukuljanovo LDC Manšped March 2020. Milš by occupied was 15,000 m² 4 Phase uooj Slt o e eeoe by developed be Group. Poseidon to Split in centre Dugopolje logistics m² 30,000 Tommy Allegheny from Stupnik Financial. in plot m² land 104,600 a acquired Logistics GLS approx zone. in Gorica Velika in built be to planned is LDC Eurospin facility. new a production Jakovlje for in plot land m² 128,800 a acquired Solutions FACC finishe be will €8m of Investment construction. in Post Croatian
formerly operated by Heruc textiles.formerly Kukuljanovo, Rijeka started started Rijeka Kukuljanovo, d H1 in 2021. . h f The rdcin aiiy n Ve in facility production 20,000 m² m² 20,000
MARKET
f arb oitc Pr with Park Logistics Zagreb of
GFA
rt hs wl cnit of consist will phase irst ' s LDC s
finished finished const with
Meridi GFA
opened
,
with ,0 m² 9,900 S e Lgsis in Logistics ped ource: logistics facility. n 6 business 16 an
5,000 m² m² 5,000
a h f The ruction and zagorje.com ,0 m² 5,000
GFA
acility GFA liko
in
H1 2020 | Croatia
11 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Total Gross Floor Area Floor Gross Total
450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0
5/m² 6/m² 4/m²
- - - H1 2020 <2.5% <2.5% €5.5/m² €3 €4 €2 +1,000,000
ics 2019 Industrial turnover Industrial Number of issued permits issued of Number AVERAGE MONTHLY RENT MONTHLY AVERAGE
2018 2017
2016
2015 ZAGREB INDUSTRIAL MARKET INDUSTRIAL ZAGREB Split CITY Rijeka Osijek Vacancy Prime Headline Rent Prime Headline 2014 Industrial production Industrial Total stock in m²in stock Total Gross Floor Area, m² (right side) (right m² Area, Floor Gross 2013 Average Average 0 50
100 300 250 200 150 95 90 85 80 permits building Issued
125 120 115 110 105 100
-
1 2020
: : : 12 11 10 Sources: Figure 10:Colliers International Figure| 11:Croatian Bureau ofStatistics Figure| 12:Croatian Bureau Statist of
CROATIAN INDUSTRIAL SECTOR: BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED AND PLANNED FLOOR AREA Figure Figure DAY DAY ADJUSTED INDICES (2015=100) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND INDUSTRIAL TURNOVER SEASONALLY WORKING AND Figure Figure FIGURES H Figure Figure KEY LOGISTICS MARKET H1 2020 | Croatia 12
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International HTL MARKET
aaeet gemn, Franchise LeaseAgreement or Agreement. Agreement, Management models operating key different via hotels the of business the running and pre operators hotel newcomer and existing of Many market. to operators hotel international but owner The respectively. w regions on hotels by recorded hotels in Kv The demand. d capacities their of part only opened operators many that fact oper and The d Opatija. in Management Hospitality and Tourism Faculty byof Benchmarking Hotel capacity operating for 31.6% Croatia stood at 5.2% for fully capacity and A Board. Tourist to according respectively, and in share 23% with share camps accommodation, 26% with hotels private by followed in were recorded overnights all of 42% 2020, H1 In picked lo to to prevent the COVID same introduced measures the The 2019. of period to compared as overnights, tourist in 77.1% of and arrivals tourist in overnights, which was a decrease of 77.5% million 5.2 and arrivals tourist million 1.5 months of 2020, tourists in Croatia six first the In 2020. H1 in recorded was Europe, across restrictions travel and pandemic to Due Summary eae oe ocpny n 1 00 for 2020 H1 in occupancy hotel verage
hotel predominantly Croatia stock in is hotel osen in May 2020 and tourist activity tourist and 2020 May in osen hr is there ifference betweenifference occupancy on fully ihs ADR highest - - prtd ih needn brands independent with operated up.
a ating capacity basis is due to the to due is basis capacity ating the
t ADR ith tog rp n ors activity tourism in drop strong
the a ubek f COVID of outbreak
Continent tog ead from demand strong e light fer ue to anticipated lower anticipated to ue
a - n 1 00 were 2020 H1 in 19 19 pandemic started rner at €92, followed t 7 ad €72, and €74 at
total overnights, total - se strategy asset
, the
n i Istria in and according to according
enter
Croatian – realiz
Hotel
- the 19 ed ,
significant2020 H1 openings: catalyst a be to unlikely is epidemic the term, long quickly. more recover might some will vary from one property to the other and 2022 in forecasted is level 2019 the to return a r strong A than expected at the of season summer Although Forecast Pipeline
hotel includes 206 units, 3 swimming swimming pools, 2 restaura 3 units, 206 includes hotel The Split. in beach Žnjan the on 2020 June in opened was Amphora Hotel 4* is estimated atis €80 apartments 66 and rooms hotel 132 feature will resort The Q in open to expected is Spa & Resort Beach Costabella Hilton €23is investment estimated at million. and is expected by the end of 2020. Total postponed accommodation. 101 ho The underway. are Split in Ambasador Hotel on works Finishing Total seats. was investment €26estimated million. at 500 with hall congress a
or or
for significant a structural change.
aet n 03 Te performance The 2023. in latest a ebound is expected in 2021, and 2021, inexpected is ebound
significant drop
u o ooaiu problems coronavirus to due Source:slobodnadalmacija.hr nts, wellness centre and
2020
, start m
while the investment the while illion Source:booking.com
4
might turn be turn might of of the pandemic.
is 202 pnn was Opening .
expected tel will have have will tel 0
i n Rijeka. Rijeka. n
n the In
, tter
the
H1 2020 | Croatia
13 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
5,8 5,4 5,0 4,6 4,2 3,8 3,4 3,0 H1 2020 H1 2020 Pula 2019 Other 2019
2018 Length of stay (rhs) stay of Length 2018 2017 Zadar 26% 23% 2017 2016 2016 Croatian TouristBoard 2015 9% Private accommodation Private 2015 Dubrovnik 2014 Overnights 2014 42% 2013 Camps Split 2013 2012 2012 Hotels 2011 Arrivals 2011 0 Zagreb 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
100 500.000 Million 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000
H1
: : : 15 14 13
Sources: Figure 13:Croatian Bureau of Statistics Figure| 14:Croatian Bureau Statistics of Figure| 15:
ACCOMMODATION TYPE SHARE IN OVERNIGHTS IN 2020 Figure Figure
NUMBER OF PASSENGERS AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS IN CROATIA Figure Figure OVERNIGHTS IN CROATIA Figure Figure TOURIST & ARRIVALS H1 2020 | Croatia 14
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International INVESTMEN
rates (e.g. properties the most as p yields, CRE prime for expected Signi income 2019. in prime as levels same the at remained properties for Yields occupied. owner are properties most the that fact the in recorded logisticis to sector,it industrial/ due mainly was activity lowest resp volume, total in 9% with hotels and 22% with which properties office by followed volume, sector, retail accounted for the 65% share in total transacted in was recorded 2020 H1 in activity of majority The respectively.volume, s 4% and 12% with regions Kvarner Istra/ and Dalmatia by followed volume, investment all of 84% the 2020 H1 In property halted inspections. and investors among the as2020 Q1 in done were deals of majority estate total real the commercial exceeded of volume In Summary Sources: Colliers International Colliers Sources: Prime Industrial/Logistics Yield RetailPrime Yield A classOffice Yield yieldsPrime in ricing of commercial commercial of ricing H1 2020, capital city Zagreb, which accounted for ciey Dsie ih demand, high Despite ectively. T coron
,
affected by the the by affected nelig efrac of performance underlying etc.). rnatd oue n 09 The 2019. in volume transacted
MARKET
vrs iuto rie concern raised situation avirus €
210 million the the total investment transaction ,
netr fcsd oty on mostly focused investors H1 , iat hne ae not are changes ficant
ae i ttl transacted total in hares
etl ae, occupancy rates, rental
20
20 potential , which is ca. 40% of
- properties
Croatia
changes of changes -
producing 8.00% 7 7.50% .
0
il be will 0%
the the the - 2020 H1 presentedare in below. recorded transactions significant most The Top Transactions
conducted under under conducted was transaction The Grupa. Fortenova from Šibenik in mall shopping Dalmare in ownership 49% acquired Group MK properties both property in Velika Gorica Zagreb in property Estate No.1 Konzum The and Gorica. Velika Zagreb in Vukovarska Konzum portfolio, their in assets retail two of disposed Funds Property Tower into the into hotel the rebrand to planning are They million €4.8 for Croatia from Pula downtown R Hotel room 89 bought Group Hospitality Arena (HANFA) Agency Supervisory Services Financial Croatian and vault) and office (branch PBZ tenants, two has currently building €7.8m for hotel) Premier Le nearby of owner and investor (local Consult in Inves to building Zagreb downtown HQ 6, Račkog former be its sold will PBZ and condition repositioned as core and Policentro tower in m² is The 8,000 Rijeka. developer, the from Rijeka in Tower mall of part shopping a is which tower office vacant a acquired Plodine first h art vea a itrc ulig in building historic a iviera, .
.
The yields were at is a otel in Croatia.otel in
a new Plodine HQ. over 8 years.over 8 strong strong discount.
buyer was 3D Real Real 3D was buyer
in
Source:
or €54,000/room. or and 7.50% 7.50% and h Rpbi of Republic the . The WAU H1 2020 m.sibenik.in
6.50%
the the
LT for
. The . shell
the for for , t
H1 2020 | Croatia
15 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 H1 2019 Istria/Kvarner Zagreb Dalmatia Industrial/Logistics Hotel Office Retail 2018
51% 2017 9% 84% 4% 2016 4% 12% 2015 0 36%
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 900 Million € Million
on RCA Analytics,eNekretnine, Financial Reports, katastar.hr
: Colliers: International H1 2020 , 17, 18
CRE INVESTMENT CRE INVESTMENT
– –
: : :
18 17 16 Sources: Figure 16
TRANSACTION VOLUMES (€) BY PROPERTY SECTORS IN H1 2020 Figure Figure CROATIA
TRANSACTION VOLUMES (€) BY REGION IN Figure Figure CROATIA TRANSACTION VOLUMES IN CROATIA (€) Figure Figure INVESTMENTCRE H1 2020 | Croatia 16
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International RESIDENTIAL MARKET
houses. in demandincrease for COVID the standard safety highest the to built buildings modern for demand increased March The primarily economy the of state the by defined be will demand market estate real residential dow restrictions, theas lockdown and in well as nationwide the to due activity economic of the economy will be visible in the slowdown coast. The COVID the on especially driver, important another rental permanent for need residence the by propelled Zagreb. in projects end or diaspora buying on the coast and in localhigh foreigners the of share mild a on with population mostly based is Demand Demand and standards properties. location centre safety city prime of supply the decreased modern the to up brought not was that centre city the deficiencies of the older stockapartment in March The Zagreb. large for interest from foreign developers, especially Kaić Sigma, Mešić, Nivogradnja, VMD,Alfastan, Pionir, the most active developers in Zagreb being with continued, planning and Construction a or apartments 4,000 around for issued Croatia were in permits Building m². over 200,000 or annually apartments built newly 2,700 at stands currently Zagreb in supply much new of supply The Supply pproximately tr o tuim Sbeunl, the Subsequently, tourism. of nturn
below levels achieved pre business (tourist accommodation) is accommodation) (tourist business
the
- . Tourism / short / Tourism . scale -
e 9 admc rae a slight a created pandemic 19 ,
arthquake in Zagreb revealed Zagreb in arthquake employment level etc. e rhuk i Zge had Zagreb in arthquake
eeomn poet in projects development 300,000 m² 300,000 m² in 2020. H1 However, there is strong is there However, - - 19 19 pandemics
build apartments is still is apartments build Demand is mostly is Demand - term apartment term .
- 2009. The '
effect on s, while s,
- , The total number of apartment transactions prices include mentioned 25% VAT). c wider in projects and +€3,000/m² upscale for locations zone €2, locations, €2, to €1,600/m² from range Zagreb in projects apartment build new in prices transaction Average Njuskalo.hr. (+7. Osijek yoy), (+2.1% Split €1,710 in Rijeka (+9.3% yoy) and €1,070 in in €2,960/m² yoy), (+4.0% in Zagreb in €2,120/m² at 2020 June apartments for price asking average the with levels, 2019 the above slightly or at remained apartments for prices Asking constructionunder Projects Pipeline lower H1 23% to 2019. compared 2020 H1 in transactions apartment num total the database, transaction all in 7,800 around at Croatia, stood 2020 H1 in
with Bužanova selling price at est. in project apartment 130 upscale an developing is Alfastan apartment 400+ a Heinzelovaon development Street. of construction the 2021 started also VMD buyers. interested Q4 by completed is th that it rumored while VAT) (incl. €3,400/m² than more at estimated is price selling The Zagreb. downtown in project apartment VMD Kneza Borne will be an upscale 120
transactions. According to eNekretnine eNekretnine to According transactions. while
Source: % o) acrig to according yoy), 3% 1
Zagreb 00/m² to €2,900/m² for tram for €2,900/m² to 00/m² project e 2 0m fr secondary for 00/m² alfastan. €3,500/m² (incl. VAT).
t cne ae (all area center ity accounted for , hr hc wl be will which ,
a 400+ has
46%
e of ber
was of
H1 2020 | Croatia
17 Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
∆GDP (YoY) ∆GDP Other -9,00% 9,00% 6,00% 3,00% 0,00% -3,00% -6,00%
Adriatic coast Adriatic Rest of Croatia of Rest
City of Zagreb City Zagreb Croatian BureauStatistics of : ∆GDP (rhs) ∆GDP 0 0% 10% 30% 20% -10% -20% -30% -
500 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 (YoY) index price Residential 800.000 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000
eNekretnine Figure| 21 :
(Ø 20 | Figure|
IN FLOOR AREA
Njuškalo.hr : VS GDP CHANGE 9
APARTMENT NET
: : : BUILDING PERMITS
21 20 19
Sources: Figure 1 RESIDENTIAL PRICE INDEX ANNUAL GROWTH RATES 2015 = 100) (YOY) Figure Figure MONTHLY TRANSACTIONS IN ZAGREB AND CROATIA Figure Figure FOR APARTMENTS CROATIA, (m²) Figure Figure ISSUED H1 2020 | Croatia 18
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