Results of the Monitoring of Water Resources of the Crimean Peninsula According to Satellite Imagery
RESULTS OF THE MONITORING OF WATER RESOURCES OF THE CRIMEAN PENINSULA ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY
W W W . C T R C E N T E R . O R G
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery
Tetyana Kuchma, Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, Senior Researcher of the Laboratory of Aerospace Probing of the Institute of Agroecology and Nature Management, Senior Lecturer of the Department of Ecology of the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy", Member of the Expert Council for Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center.
© Kyiv, 2020
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 2
Contents
Introduction ...... 3 Research methodology ...... 4 Research results ...... 7 Conclusions ...... 24
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 3
Introduction
Crimea's water resources, as well as the assessment of the ecological situation on the peninsula, need special attention. The peculiarity of providing Crimea with water resources is: increasing anthropogenic pressure on the state of water resources generated by population growth, use of resources in the process of militarization and in military-industrial needs, and climate change. The problem became particularly acute after the dry summer of 2020, when many media outlets began to report critical water shortages, particularly for utilities and domestic use. To what extent is the shortage critical and to what extent are we dealing with an objective reduction in water supply in the region, and to what extent - in increasing the use of water for the army, industry and population, which is constantly increasing throughout the annexation period.
The purpose of this analytical study was to review the water supply situation of the peninsula on the basis of satellite data and open sources and to identify possible factors that, in addition to the often mentioned climate change and water supply through the North Crimean Canal, affect the water balance of the Crimean Peninsula.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 4
Research methodology
The assessment of water resources according to satellite imagery was performed on the basis of the analysis of the dynamics of the water mirror for the 50 largest water bodies (reservoirs and lakes) within the Crimean peninsula. In particular, it was determined by how much the area of the water mirror of reservoirs decreased in 2020, compared to 2015. Open free radar satellite data from the European Space Agency Sentinel-1 with a spatial resolution of 10 meters were used to highlight the area of the water mirror. Radar survey is widely used to decipher the water surface, in particular when analyzing the flood situation. Satellite imagery was processed in the Google Earth Engine software interface, which is a powerful web platform for cloud processing of remote sensing data on a large scale. The data processing algorithm was based on the UN-Spider method1 of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. The program code is available at2. The surface area of the water surface can change significantly, in particular due to local weather conditions, such as after rains, and largely depends on the mode of water resources management, water intake and runoff, so based on the above algorithm, summer-averaged map layers with contours were created, water mirror as of summer 2020 and summer 2015. Thus, to create a cartographic layer for the summer of 2020, a total of 119 images for the period from 01.06 - 31.08.2020 for the entire territory of the Crimean Peninsula and 58 images for the period from 01.06 to 31.08.2015 were used to map the data for the summer of 2015. QGIS software calculated the difference between the data of 2020 and 2015, which allowed to determine
1 https://un-spider.org/advisory-support/recommended-practices/recommended-practice-google- earth-engine-flood-mapping/step-by-step 2 https://code.earthengine.google.com/af10e30571459100db739559c9246d57
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 5 the area of drying or reduction of the water mirror. OpenStreetMap3 was used as the basic contours of water bodies. Data for the summer of 2015 were used for comparison with 2020 due to the fact that it was the oldest available summer time period of the satellite image Sentinel-1 (the satellite was launched in 2014). To compare the results, as well as to analyze a longer time series of satellite imagery to study the dynamics of water resources, we also used data from multispectral satellite imagery Landsat-8. The Landsat-8 satellite began operating in orbit in February 2013, before the annexation of Crimea. Due to the combination of image channels taken by this satellite in different spectral ranges, it is possible to determine the biogeochemical features of the territory. In particular, the normalized differential water index (NDWI), which is calculated based on the near and middle infrared image channels, was used as an indicator of the open water surface area. As the water surface area decreases, the NDWI index within the water body contour will also decrease. The Google Earth Engine software interface calculated the average values of the water index (NDWI) within the contours of water bodies for the period 2013-2020 and created graphs of their dynamics. In total, the analysis included 315 images for the specified period (only data with a cloudiness of no more than 10% were used in the analysis). For each analyzed water body, graphs of the dynamics of average annual and average annual NDWI values for the period 2013-2020 were obtained, and the difference between NDWI values for 2013 and 2020 was determined. This analysis was used to identify the trend and the possible year of the beginning of the drying up of reservoirs on the territory of the Crimean peninsula. Based on the results of the analysis, maps of the reduction of the water surface area were created based on Sentinel-1 radar data and Landsat-8
3 OpenStreetMap Contributors (https://download.geofabrik.de)
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 6 multispectral data. Thus, zones of water resources reduction within the Crimean peninsula were identified. To identify climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting water resources, maps of average rainfall, earth's surface temperature and evaporation rate during the summer of 2020 were created. Relevant climatic parameters were obtained from the data set Google Earth Engine and Giovanni NASA4. The illuminance index according to the night satellite survey was used as an indicator of the dynamics of anthropogenic load5. This index is used to assess the dynamics of urbanization, infrastructure development, as well as an indirect demographic indicator.
4 https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/ 5 https://www.lightpollutionmap.info/
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 7
Research results
As a result of the analysis of the state of water bodies within the Crimean peninsula for the summer period of 2020 and 2015, according to the Sentinel-1 satellite radar data, a reduction of the water mirror of almost all water bodies by an average of 32% was revealed. Table 1 lists the 42 largest bodies of water on the peninsula, the area of the reservoir according to OpenStreetMap and the area of drying or reduction of the water mirror in 2020 compared to 2015.
Table 1. Decrease in the area of a water mirror in the summer of 2020 in comparison with 2015 according to radar data of Sentinel-1
Area of water Area of water The share of body according mirror decrease in Name of the water reducing the area of sn to OSM summer 2020 body the water mirror cartographic compared to 2015 (%) data (ha) (ha)
1 Aigul lake 3619.7 833.2 23.0 2 Aktash lake 2276.1 226.9 10.0 3 Astana water reservoir 1171.3 300.7 25.7 4 Bakal water reservoir 675.2 22.3 3.3 5 Samarly water reservoir 144.6 27.7 19.2 6 Iuzmak water reservoir 137.1 17.9 13.1 7 Donuzlav 5120.0 555.8 10.9 8 Zahirsk water reservoir 148.3 88.0 59.4 9 Western basin 408.3 233.2 57.1 10 Karach-Kol 322.0 111.9 34.7 11 Kerch water reservoir 179.2 5.1 2.8 12 Kyiat lake 1811.6 511.3 28.2 13 Koiiash lake 456.7 277.5 60.8 14 Chervone lake 2320.5 208.2 9.0 15 Kyzyl-Iar 847.3 290.3 34.3 16 Lyman 154.8 102.4 66.2 17 Marfovske lake 243.2 13.4 5.5 Mizhhirsk water 18 reservoir 316.7 205.0 64.7 19 Moinak lake 172.5 96.1 55.7
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 8
Area of water Area of water The share of body according mirror decrease in Name of the water reducing the area of sn to OSM summer 2020 body the water mirror cartographic compared to 2015 (%) data (ha) (ha)
20 Achy lake 232.0 37.7 16.2 21 Dharylhach lake 828.4 46.1 5.6 22 Kachyk lake 462.1 134.3 29.1 23 Stare lake 1208.4 99.1 8.2 24 Ianhul lake 292.9 48.3 16.5 25 Iarylhach lake 170.0 2.0 1.2 26 Oibur water reservoir 483.5 23.4 4.8 27 Panske lake 547.2 10.1 1.9 Partyzansk water 28 reservoir 181.9 125.0 68.7 29 Saky lake 976.4 563.7 57.7 30 Sasyk-Syvash 7728.2 4601.6 59.5 Simferopol water 31 reservoir 282.9 259.6 91.8 32 Sukhe lake 130.8 0.2 0.1 33 Terekly 158.0 56.1 35.5 34 Tobechyk lake 1919.6 253.0 13.2 35 Uvarov lake 182.5 99.9 54.8 36 Uzunlar lake 2137.7 854.0 39.9 Feodosiia water 37 reservoir 197.3 160.7 81.5 38 Filatov Drought 140.6 28.3 20.2 39 Frontove water reservoir 604.4 198.1 32.8 Chornorichensk water 40 reservoir 601.2 571.9 95.1 41 Chokrash lake 850.2 65.5 7.7 42 Churbash lake 118.3 4.4 3.7
In six reservoirs the area of the water mirror decreased by more than 50%, these are Zahirsk, Mizhhirsk, Partyzansk, Simferopol, Feodosiia and Chornorichensk water reservoirs. Among the lakes, a decrease in the area of the water mirror by more than 50% was recorded in Koiiash, Mainak, Saky lakes and Sasyk-Syvash (Fig. 1).
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 9
Fig. 1 Map of the classification of reservoirs by the area of reduction of the water mirror in 2020, compared to 2015. It was also found that the reduction in the area of reservoirs was higher compared to the area of reduction of the water mirror of lakes, and averaged 43% for reservoirs and 25% for lakes (Fig. 2).
For selected reservoirs, an example of reducing the water mirror in detail is given (Fig. 3-8). The series of drawings shows the contours of the reservoir during the summer period of 2015 and 2020, as well as the difference between the shootings for these years. The outline of the water body is highlighted in black in the images, and the drainage area is displayed in the image with a difference between 2020 and 2015 in white and light gray.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 10
Fig. 2 Map comparing the intensity of the reduction of the water surface area of lakes and reservoirs in 2020 and 2015. 2015 р. 2020 р.
Difference between 2015-2020 Area of the water reservoir
Fig. 3. Reducing the contours of the water mirror of the Frontove Reservoir
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 11
2015 р. 2020 р.
Difference between 2015-2020 Area of the water reservoir
Зона осушення
Fig. 4. Reducing the contours of the water mirror of the Taihan and Bilohirsk water reservoirs
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 12
2015 р. 2020 р.
Difference between 2015-2020 Area of the water reservoir
Зона осушення
Fig. 5. Reducing the contours of the water mirror of the Simferopol water reservoir.
2015 р. 2020 р.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 13
Difference between 2015-2020 Area of the water reservoir
Fig. 6. Reducing the contours of the water mirror of the Chornorichensky reservoir.
2015 р. 2020 р.
Difference between 2015-2020 Area of the water reservoir
Fig. 7. Reducing the contours of the water mirror of the Partyzansk water reservoir.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 14
2015 р. 2020 р.
Difference between 2015-2020 Area of the water reservoir
Fig. 8. Reducing the contours of the water mirror of the Zahirsk reservoir.
During the spring and summer of 2020, arid conditions with low levels or no precipitation were observed on the territory of the Crimean Peninsula. Fig. 9 shows a map of the distribution of the average amount of precipitation for June-August 2020, obtained on the basis of hourly satellite data GSMaP. Comparison of the map of precipitation distribution and the map of reduction of the area of the water mirror of reservoirs allows us to conclude that not only the lack of precipitation affects water reserves. Thus, in the northern part of the peninsula as well as in the Simferopol region, more precipitation fell during the summer of 2020 compared to the Kerch Peninsula, but for example the decrease in the area of the water mirror of the Simferopol Reservoir was higher than in the Kerch Peninsula.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 15
Fig. 9 Map of water mirror reduction for the largest reservoirs of the Crimean peninsula and the average amount of precipitation for June-August 2020.
Another reason for the drying of reservoirs can be the high intensity of evaporation, which depends on air temperature and other atmospheric conditions, relief and microclimate. To analyze this factor, a map of the distribution of evaporation intensity (evapotranspiration) was obtained, obtained from the satellite data of the MODIS sensor for the summer of 2020 (Fig. 10). As can be seen in Fig. 10 the highest intensity of evaporation is observed within the mountain massif. In particular, in this zone there are Partyzansk, Zahirsk and Chornorichensk water reservoirs. However, in the area of Simferopol and Bilohirsk water reservoirs, as well as Sasyk-Syvash lake, the intensity of evaporation is lower compared to the territory of the Mountainous Crimea, but the area of water surface reduction is high.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 16
Fig. 10 Map of water mirror reduction for the largest reservoirs of the Crimean peninsula and average evaporation intensity for June-August 2020
Fig. 11 shows a map of the earth's surface temperature from Landsat-8 satellite images. The highest temperature of the earth's surface in the summer of 2020 is recorded in the central part of the Crimea near the settlement of Krasnohvardiiske, as well as in the Kerch Peninsula.
In order to analyze the dynamics of water bodies over a longer period and compare with the state of water resources before the annexation of Crimea, the data of the Landsat-8 satellite survey were used. As a result, it was found that for 27 reservoirs (out of 42) the value of the water index NDWI decreased compared to 2013 data.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 17
Fig. 11 Map of water mirror reduction for the largest reservoirs of the Crimean peninsula and the average temperature of the earth's surface for June-August 2020. Table 2. Dynamics of water index values (NDWI) averaged over the area of the water body during the summer months for the period from 2013 to 2020
The difference Name of the between sn 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 water body NDWI values for 2013 and 2020 1 Aigul lake 0.49 0.54 0.48 0.42 0.41 0.57 0.51 0.49 0.00 2 Aktash lake 0.30 0.29 0.35 0.33 0.18 0.16 0.25 0.17 0.13 Astana water 3 reservoir 0.24 0.23 0.32 0.28 0.10 0.07 0.28 0.09 0.15 Bakal water 4 reservoir 0.25 0.37 0.30 0.33 0.39 0.33 0.38 0.36 -0.12 Samarly water 5 reservoir 0.34 0.30 0.37 0.26 0.20 0.23 0.27 0.22 0.11 Iuzmak water 6 reservoir 0.37 0.39 0.42 0.30 0.28 0.32 0.34 0.31 0.07 7 Donuzlav 0.31 0.29 0.32 0.35 0.34 0.29 0.28 0.29 0.02
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 18
The difference Name of the between sn 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 water body NDWI values for 2013 and 2020 Zahirsk water 8 reservoir 0.52 0.49 0.36 0.40 0.45 0.40 0.41 0.37 0.15 9 Western basin 0.54 - 0.45 0.34 0.46 0.54 - 0.67 -0.12 10 Karach-Kol 0.04 0.09 0.05 0.25 0.06 0.02 0.09 -0.06 0.10 Kerch water 11 reservoir 0.21 0.26 0.34 0.26 0.23 0.29 0.32 0.22 -0.01 12 Kyiat lake 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.44 0.59 0.67 0.70 -0.39 13 Koiiash lake - 0.77 0.73 0.72 0.81 0.71 0.76 0.79 -0.79 14 Chervone lake 0.33 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.47 0.47 0.45 0.46 -0.13 15 Kyzyl-Iar 0.54 0.52 0.58 0.43 0.44 0.57 - 0.63 -0.09 16 Lyman 0.33 0.23 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.27 0.34 0.16 0.17 Marfovske 17 lake 0.49 0.44 0.57 0.48 0.42 0.43 0.48 0.36 0.12 Mizhhirsk 18 water reservoir 0.41 0.29 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.12 0.09 0.03 0.37 19 Moinak lake 0.37 0.22 0.42 0.44 0.44 0.41 0.32 0.49 -0.12 20 Achy lake 0.41 0.67 0.34 0.18 0.13 0.25 0.32 0.12 0.28 Dharylhach 21 lake 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.24 0.02 22 Kachyk lake 0.06 0.12 0.26 0.16 0.03 0.06 0.17 0.04 0.02 23 Stare lake 0.63 0.57 0.66 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.62 0.54 0.09 24 Ianhul lake 0.64 0.63 0.79 0.76 0.66 0.51 0.74 0.61 0.03 25 Iarylhach lake 0.33 0.43 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.02 Oibur water 26 reservoir 0.29 0.23 0.24 0.27 0.28 0.22 0.21 0.19 0.10 27 Panske lake 0.21 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.23 0.21 0.20 0.14 0.07 Partyzansk 28 water reservoir 0.44 0.42 0.45 0.43 0.46 0.44 0.47 0.41 0.03 29 Saky lake 0.54 0.67 0.65 0.49 0.46 0.65 0.51 0.61 -0.07 30 Sasyk-Syvash 0.52 0.54 0.54 0.48 0.54 0.59 0.46 0.50 0.01 Simferopol 31 water reservoir 0.36 0.32 0.33 0.33 0.32 0.33 0.37 0.40 -0.04 32 Sukhe lake -0.06 -0.01 0.23 0.17 0.02 -0.07 0.10 -0.09 0.03 33 Terekly 0.49 0.47 0.39 0.50 0.41 0.51 -0.02 34 Tobechyk 0.10 0.43 0.55 0.62 0.47 0.60 0.46 0.59 -0.49
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 19
The difference Name of the between sn 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 water body NDWI values for 2013 and 2020 lake
35 Uvarov lake 0.39 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.22 0.25 0.32 0.20 0.19 36 Uzunlar lake 0.00 0.26 0.42 0.36 0.29 0.29 0.40 0.27 -0.27 Feodosiia 37 water reservoir 0.32 0.36 0.37 0.26 0.22 0.22 0.29 0.17 0.15 Filatov 38 Drought 0.59 0.32 0.25 0.28 0.25 0.36 0.39 0.62 -0.03 Frontove 39 water reservoir 0.33 0.35 0.49 0.37 0.36 0.29 0.32 0.16 0.17 Chornorichen 40 sk water reservoir 0.35 0.28 0.39 0.38 0.44 0.43 0.48 0.31 0.04 41 Chokrash lake 0.59 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.61 0.60 0.64 -0.05 42 Churbash lake 0.45 0.40 0.48 0.48 0.44 0.40 0.46 0.45 0.00
The graph of the dynamics of the water index shows that the decline in the values of the NDWI index is recorded starting from 2015-2016.
0,72
0,62
0,52
0,42
0,32
0,22
0,12
0,02 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Міжгірське водосховище озеро Ачи Фронтове водосховище
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 20
0,42 0,37 0,32 0,27 0,22 0,17 0,12 0,07 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Астанинське водосховище Водосховище Самарли Водосховище Юзмак
Fig. 12. Graph of the dynamics of the NDWI index of water bodies. To assess the potential impact of anthropogenic factors on the water resources of the Crimea, night satellite images with a light index were analyzed. Construction of new housing estates and population growth in cities, construction of new roads will increase the area and intensity of light pollution, which is why this indicator is used as an indirect indicator of population density. Comparison of the illuminance index for 2013 and 2019 revealed a significant increase in both the area and intensity of light pollution, in particular around the city of Simferopol, as well as along the new route Tavryda (Fig. 13).
2013 р. 2019 р.
Fig. 13. Comparison of the illuminance index in 2013 and 2020.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 21
In Fig. 14 shows the dynamics of the total illuminance index for the period 2013-2020 within the territory of the Crimean Peninsula, as well as two close areas: in the area of Odesa region (Ukraine) and Krasnodar region (Russia). The graphs show that in the Crimea, the increase in the illuminance index is growing rapidly since 2018, and actually increases 3 times compared to 2013. In the territory of Odesa region small fluctuations of the illuminance index are fixed, and in the territory of Krasnodar moderate growth of the illumination index is noticeable, however with much smaller increase, in comparison with the Crimean peninsula.
а b c Fig. 14. the dynamics of the total illuminance index for the period 2013-2020 within the Crimea (a), as well as Odessa region (b) and Krasnodar region (c). Thus, the comparison of the illuminance index for 2013 and 2019 revealed areas of increasing anthropogenic pressure on natural ecosystems. Comparison of zones of increasing light intensity and dynamics of the water mirror of reservoirs confirms that, in particular, such reservoirs as Partyzansk, Simferopol and Frontove, where there is a decrease in the water mirror, are in an area with a higher anthropogenic load.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 22
Fig. 15. Map of light intensity and dynamics of water mirror of reservoirs. The construction of new infrastructure is also often associated with deforestation, which plays a significant role in regulating the water regime. Therefore, deforestation is another anthropogenic factor affecting the accumulation of water resources, especially in the mountainous region. Comparison of the maps with another spectral index, the NDVI vegetation index, calculated from the red and infrared channels of the Sentinel-2 satellite image, revealed deforestation or loss of forest cover in recent years. In particular, in Fig. 16 shows an example of felling related to the construction of the Tavryda highway in the Balaklava district.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 23
Fig. 16. Deforestation in the Balaklava district during the construction of the Tavryda highway. Such data indicate an increase in anthropogenic impact on natural ecosystems and water balance and water resources in the region.
Results of the monitoring of water resources of the Crimean peninsula according to satellite imagery 24
Conclusions
1. Based on the results of the analysis of satellite images in 2020, a regional analysis of the intensity of drying of water bodies of the Crimean peninsula was made. There is a reduction in the area of the water mirror for virtually all large bodies of water on the Crimean peninsula, compared to the area of the water mirror in 2015. At the same time, the area of reduction of the water surface of reservoirs was higher, and amounted to 45% than the area of reduction of the water surface of lakes (25%). On the one hand, natural lakes may have an underground power source, but the difference in the reduction of the water mirror of natural water bodies and artificial hydraulic structures (reservoirs) can still indicate the impact of water management on the distribution of water supply.
2. Also, comparisons of drying intensity and climatic indicators such as rainfall, evaporation temperature during the summer of 2020, which are important for the distribution of water resources, show that the cause of water drying is not only the climatic factor. Thus, in some cases, in an area with higher relative rainfall and lower temperature and lower evaporation, a larger area of water mirror reduction was recorded, for example, in the case of the Simferopol Reservoir.
3. Analysis of the long-term dynamics of the water index within water bodies for the summer period in 2013-2020 shows a downward trend in the water index, which is also an indicator of water surface area, with a downward trend observed in 2015 or 2016.
4. For a more detailed study of the factors influencing water reserves, it is necessary to study the hydrological regime of individual water bodies with the involvement of terrestrial monitoring data and data on the level of surface water and groundwater intake.
This Report is prepared within the framework of the Environmental Policy and Advocacy Initiative in Ukraine that has been implemented by the International Renaissance Foundation and enabled by the financial support from Sweden.
Views, conclusions or recommendations belong to the authors of this Report and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Government of Sweden. The responsibility over the content lies solely with authors of this Report – the Crimean Tatar Resource Center.
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