AUGUST CBOS 2006

ISSN 1233 - 7250 THE SITUATION IN LEBANON IN THIS ISSUE: The Poles are seriously concerned with the DOES THE PRESENT CONFLICT AROUND situation in the Middle East. Almost three quarters LEBANON CONSTITUTE A THREAT R THE SITUATION of the respondents (71%) believe that the conflict TO THE GLOBAL PEACE OR NOT? IN LEBANON around Lebanon constitutes a threat to the global peace.

In the opinion of most Poles (70%), the Yes actions taken by Israel to damage Hezbollah in 71% R THE ATTITUDE Lebanon are unjustified. Those who are more 17% Not TO THE GOVERNMENT familiar with international affairs, i.e. persons with OF JAROSŁAW 12% KACZYŃSKI higher education and those who are interested in politics, are more likely to find the Israeli action Difficult to say justified. Before the UN Security R WHAT IS A BETTER ISRAEL HAS STARTED A MILITARY OPERATION Council decided to send the PLACE TO LIVE: TO DESTROY THE BASES OF THE PALESTINIAN international troops to Lebanon, THE COUNTRYSIDE ORGANIZATION HEZBOLLAH, WHICH ATTACKS OR THE CITY? THE TERRITORY OF ISRAEL FROM LEBANON. IN YOUR half of the Poles had supported this OPINION, IS THIS ISRAELI ACTION JUSTIFIED OR NOT? idea and a third had opposed it.

Rather unjustified Rather justified The supporters of sending international troops to Lebanon are R LEISURE TIME 28% 9% 14% usually of the opinion that such an 70% 5% Absolutely justified action should be led by the United Nations (51%, i.e. 25% of all 42% 16% respondents). So, it seems that the Difficult to say solution which finally was adopted Completely unjustified had been supported by most Poles. PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH CENTER Most of those who accept the international - CBOS - intervention in Lebanon (57%, i.e. 28% of SHOULD INTERNATIONAL TROOPS BE SENT TO all respondents) also support the LEBANON IN THE PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES 4a Żurawia TO STOP THE FIGHTING BETWEEN ISRAEL 00-503 Warszawa participation of Polish soldiers in this AND HEZBOLLAH? operation. 35% of the supporters of the military intervention in the region (17% of Rather not Ph: (48 22) 629 35 69 all respondents) are against sending Polish 31% (48 22) 628 37 04 soldiers to Lebanon. 50% (48 22) 693 46 91 Rather yes Fax:(48 22) 629 40 89 More information on this subject can be found in the 19% CBOS report (in Polish): The attitudes to the situation in Lebanon,August 2006. Survey executed E-mail: [email protected] Difficult to say http://www.cbos.pl in August 2006. A representative random sample of adult Poles. N = 952. Editors: Krzysztof Zagórski THE ATTITUDE TO THE GOVERNMENT and Beata Roguska OF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI Translated by Kinga Pawłowska A new Prime Minister was appointed in Poland in July. Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz, who was very popular among the Poles, resigned and was replaced by Jarosław Kaczyński, © COPYRIGHT BY CBOS 2006 the leader of the (PiS). Most of the cabinet members remained on their positions despite the change of the Prime Minister. The resignation of Mr Marcinkiewicz ALL SOURCES MUST BE CREDITED WHEN ANY PART OF THIS and the appointment of Jarosław Kaczyński caused a significant drop in the support for PUBLICATION IS REPRODUCED thegovernment of the coalition consisting of the Law and Justice (PiS), the Self-Defence (Samoobrona) and the League of Polish Families (LPR). Now, after the first few weeks of 2 08/2006

Jarosław Kaczyński's cabinet being in power, the conditions of living in Poland will not change (42%, 33% government has the support of slightly more than a and 45% respectively). Those who anticipate any quarter of the respondents (28%). More than a third of changes in these areas usually tend to believe that such adult Poles (36%) are its opponents, and nearly a third changes will be positive rather than negative. However, (31%) are indifferent. In July the cabinet of Kazimierz nearly half of the respondents (48%) are afraid that the Marcinkiewicz had more than twice as many supporters number of poor people in Poland could grow. Relatively as it had opponents. many Poles hope that the cabinet of Jarosław Kaczyński will improve the safety of the Polish people (31%), THE ATTITUDE TO THE GOVERNMENT: although the largest proportion of the respondents expect that nothing will change in this area (44%). In the opinion VII 43% 31% 20% 6% of the largest proportion of the respondents, the present cabinet will not change the relations between Poland and VIII 28% 31% 36% 5% Russia (38%) or Germany (36%) significantly, nor will it change the position of Poland in the European Union Supporters Indifferent Opponents Difficult to say (36%). Those who expect any changes in this respect usually anticipate a deterioration of the international The acceptance for Jarosław Kaczyński as the situation of Poland. Prime Minister is lower than the acceptance for Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz throughout his term of office. IF THE CABINET OF JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI A third of the respondents (32%) are glad that Jarosław REMAINS IN POWER FOR SOME TIME: Kaczyński is currently the head of the government. Half THE ECONOMIC SITUATION WILL: of the respondents (51%) are dissatisfied. The former improve deteriorate not change difficult to say Prime Minister was popular not only among the supporters of his party and other members of the ruling 26% 18% 42% 14% coalition. He was accepted by a large proportion of potential supporters of the opposition and politically UNEMPLOYMENT WILL: indifferent persons. This is not true about the current decrease grow not change difficult to say Prime Minister, who has polarized the political scene: he 29% 24% 33% 14% has the support of his own party, whereas those who vote for the opposition or do not have clear preferences disapprove of him. THE NUMBER OF POOR PEOPLE IN POLAND WILL: decrease increase not change difficult to say

ARE YOU GLAD THAT JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI 11% 48% 30% 11% IS CURRENTLY THE HEAD OF THE GOVERNMENT?

THE RELATIONS OF POLAND WITH GERMANY WILL: VII 53% 23% 24% improve deteriorate not change difficult to say

14% 28% 36% 22% VIII 32% 51% 17%

Yes No Difficult to say THE POSITION OF POLAND IN THE EU WILL: improve deteriorate not change difficult to say The expectations associated with the cabinet of Jarosław Kaczyński are very moderate and far less 19% 29% 36% 16% optimistic than those expressed when the cabinet of Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz was formed. On the one hand, More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report it could be due to a drop in the post-election optimism, (in Polish):The attitude to the government of Jarosław Kaczyński and which is quite typical of Poland and is usually observed a The anticipated effects of the work of Jarosław Kaczyński's cabinet, August 2006. Survey executed in August 2006. A representative few months after a parliamentary election. On the other random sample of adult Poles. N = 952. hand, however, it could be associated with the enormous popularity of the former Prime Minister, who had been WHAT IS A BETTER PLACE one of the most trusted politicians for months. The Poles usually do not believe that a new government would bring TO LIVE: THE COUNTRYSIDE any material changes to various spheres of their life. OR THE CITY? Consequently, they do not expect any visible socio- economic changes: most respondents believe that the Nearly two-thirds of the Poles (62%) live in economic situation, the unemployment rate and the towns and cities, and only 38% (less than two-fifths) live

PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH CENTER - CBOS - 08/2006 3 in the countryside. However, much more people have current place of residence much more frequently than their roots in the country. More than half of adult Poles those who have moved from a town or city to the were born and raised there, whereas a little more than countryside. two-fifths (43%) were born in towns and cities.Adefinite majority of the Poles were born and raised in the same IF YOU COULD CHOOSE A PLACE TO LIVE NOW, environment (urban or rural) as they live in now. Only one WOULD YOU PREFER: in four respondents migrated from the countryside to the the country? city or, much less frequently, from the city to rural areas. town/city? 75% 71% 62% HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE YOUR PLACE OF RESIDENCE 52% AND THE PLACE YOU COME FROM? 48%

I live in a town/city and I live in the country and I live in a town/city, but 27% 32% come from a town/city come from the country come from the country 22%

40% 35% 22% 3% I live in the I live in the I live in a I live in a country and country, but town/city, but town/city and I live in the country, come from come from a come from the come from a but come from a the country town/city country town/city town/city Almost all people living in the countryside (93%) Even though more than two-fifths of the Poles and more than a third of those living in towns or cities would like to live in the country, only one-fifth would (36%) come from the countryside. choose rural life for their children. More than two-thirds Certain symptoms of the “rural renaissance”, would prefer urban life for their children. According to a which can also be observed in other European societies, common opinion, urban life gives young people better have been visible in Poland in recent years. Namely, the prospects in terms of education and the chances for respondents today see the country as an attractive place to finding a job. live much more frequently than eight years ago. 42% of WHETHER YOU HAVE CHILDREN OR NOT, PLEASE TELL ME the respondents would like to live in the villages (in 1998: WHETHER (IF IT WERE UP TO YOU) YOU WOULD LIKE only 30%). YOUR CHILD TO LIVE IN:

IF YOU COULD CHOOSE A PLACE TO LIVE NOW, the country? 20% WOULD YOU PREFER? VII 1998 VII 2006 a small town? 16%

a medium town? 26% 30% the countryside 42% a big city? 27%

Difficult to say? 11% 26% a small town 21% 67% More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report 23% 55% a medium town 18% (in Polish):Do we prefer to live in the country or in a town/city?, July 2006. Survey executed in July 2006. A representative random sample 18% a big city 16% of adult Poles. N = 950. 3% Difficult to say 3% LEISURE TIME Those who were born and still live in the countryside usually prefer rural life (71%) to urban life According to the estimations based on our (27%), whereas those who have moved to the country respondents' declarations, an average Pole has about 26 from a town or city would like to live in the countryside hours of free time a week, i.e. almost 4 hours a day. (48%) almost as frequently as in the town or city (52%). However, almost one-eighth of the respondents declare On the other hand, most persons who have moved from that they have no time at all for rest or doing whatever the countryside to a town or city prefer urban life (62% they want. Working persons complain about a lack of free compared to 32%). Urban life is even more popular time more frequently than those who do not work. among those who were born and still live in towns and In their free time, the Poles usually watch cities (75% compared to 22%). It shows that native television or films on DVD or video (in total, 54%). In the inhabitants of both rural and urban areas accept their above 54 age group the percentage of TV viewers place of residence much more frequently than significantly exceeds the average. More than a third of the immigrants. It should also be noted that those who have respondents (37% of all respondents, 70% of those with moved from the country to a town or city prefer their the highest education, 50% of the inhabitants of the

PUBLIC OPINION RE SEARCH CENTER - CBOS - 4 08/2006 biggest cities and 48% of women) mentioned reading THE MOST FREQUENTLY MENTIONED books, newspapers and magazines among their most LEISURE ACTIVITIES: frequent leisure activities. The most frequent pastimes Watching TV, DVD also include: walks, housework, hobby, passive rest and and video films 54% Reading books, newspapers outdoor activities (mainly gardening), as well as 37% socializing. and magazines Walks 24% HOW MANY HOURS OF FREE TIME DO YOU HAVE IN AN AVERAGE WEEK, WITHOUT NIGHT REST? Housework 23% WE MEAN THE TIME IN WHICH YOU CAN DO WHATEVER YOU WANT OR JUST REST Hobby 21%

Passive rest 21% 17% I have no free time 10% Outdoor activities 20% 13% Socializing 18% 22% 1-10 hours 11% Sport 16% 16% Using computer and Internet 11% 22% 11-20 hours 10% Listening to the radio, music 9% 16% Taking care of children and other family members 7% 15% 21-30 hours 14% Meetings and talks with family 6% 14% Religious and spiritual life 3% 11% Studying 31-40 hours 8% 2% 9% Health and beauty routines 2%

5% Participating in cultural life more than 40 hours 22% outside home 1% 15% Other entertainment 2% 1% All or nearly all my Other activities 1% 10% time is free time 6%

7% working More information on this subject can be found in the CBOS report (in Polish):What do the Poles do in their leisure time? , August 2006. Difficult to say 15% not working 11% Survey executed in July 2006. A representative random sample of all respondents adult Poles. N = 950.

In addition to the reports referred to above, the following have been published recently (in Polish): For more information on CBOS services and publications please contact:

u The Poles' psychological wellbeing compared with the residents of the other post- CBOS POLAND communist countries 4a, Żurawia, 00-503 Phones: (48 22) 629 35 69, 628 37 04 Fax: (48 22) 629 40 89 u Similarities and differences between people living in the country and those living in the cities e-mail: [email protected] http://www.cbos.pl u Political party preferences in August Yearly subscription rate for “Polish u Social moods after the change of the Prime Minister Public Opinion” is 80 USD

u Trust in politicians in August Circulation: 210 copies

u The opinions about the work of the President and the Parliament

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