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December 18, 2013 December 18, 2013 Korea Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (010620/Buy/TP: W210,000) KOSPI 1,974.63 8.89 0.45 Dominant player in a red ocean KOSPI 200 259.98 1.26 0.49 KOSDAQ 485.65 -0.50 -0.10 Mando (060980/Buy/TP: W170,000) Company visit comment Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value Simmtech (036710/Trading Buy/TP: W8,000) Lower TP KOSPI 254,192 3,688 Three-year earnings downtrend to end KOSPI 200 55,403 2,770 KOSDAQ 287,084 1,211 Market Cap (Wbn) Sector News & Analysis Value Tourism (Overweight) KOSPI 1,165,258 Volume-driven growth period to begin KOSDAQ 115,245 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,020 1,167 -147 Institutional 1,016 730 286 Retail 1,639 1,768 -130 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 79 68 11 Institutional 70 86 -17 Retail 1,059 1,053 6 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 907 703 204 KOSDAQ 20 15 5 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 391 404 88 KOSDAQ 392 525 81 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value ByucksanEng&Const 7,060 -850 349 Samsung Electronics 1,401,000 6,000 298 KODEX LEVERAGE 11,930 160 214 Hyundai Motor 227,500 500 188 Hynix 35,550 -1,050 167 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value CJ E&M 28,300 -2,850 173 Celltrion 37,850 -650 23 SMEC 4,750 -360 18 Taewoong 27,250 850 17 Hyunjin Materials 5,200 190 17 Note: As of December 18, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (010620 KS) Dominant player in a red ocean Shipbuilding 2013 orders likely to exceed the US$6bn level, far surpassing the company target Hyundai Mipo Dockyard (HMD), which had set an order target of US$3.2bn early this Company Report year, has already exceeded its goal, winning orders of US$5.87bn (169 vessels) so far. December 18, 2013 Notably, product carriers account for 76.1% of total orders. Global product carrier orders are estimated at around 160 vessels this year, of which HMD received 133, proving again that the company is the dominant player in the global small- and mid-sized (Maintain) Buy merchant ship red ocean. We believe that the company’s orders will comfortably exceed the US$6bn mark this Target Price (12M, W) 210,000 year, as it will likely win additional orders for product and LPG carriers by year-end. In 2014, we expect the company to continue to see order growth and newbuilding price Share Price (12/17/13, W) 181,000 hikes. Expected Return 16% High-priced orders from BP th After lengthy negotiations, HMD announced on December 12 that it had secured a OP (13F, Wbn) -260 US$573mn deal with BP, the world’s second-largest oil major, for 14 product carriers. In Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) -230 our view, the order terms were favorable for HMD, given that: 1) the prices differ greatly by delivery date and vessel type and 2) the newbuilding prices under the deal are EPS Growth (13F, %) TTR significantly higher than under previous agreements. Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 12.9 P/E (13F, x) - Among the 14 ship orders, nine are for 50,000 DWT vessels and five are for 40,000 DWT Market P/E (13F, x) 10.9 vessels. The smaller vessels are priced at US$40mn, 50,000 DWT vessels due for delivery KOSPI 1,965.74 in 2016 at US$41mn, and 50,000 DWT vessels due for delivery in 2017 at US$42mn. The company did not want to increase its order backlog to over 2.5 years, but BP insisted on Market Cap (Wbn) 3,620 setting delivery dates in 2017. In exchange, HMD was able to secure higher prices for Shares Outstanding (mn) 20 ships slated for later delivery. In our view, the company was able to win high-priced Free Float (%) 52.3 orders due to its market dominance and strong competitiveness. Foreign Ownership (%) 21.4 Beta (12M) 1.14 Maintain Buy call with TP of W210,000 52-Week Low (W) 104,500 52-Week High (W) 189,000 We maintain our Buy call on HMD with a target price of W210,000 (based on a P/B of 1.6x and our 12-month forward BPS estimate). The company’s 2014 earnings are (%) 1M 6M 12M anticipated to stagnate. However, considering rising newbuilding prices and the Absolute -2.4 40.3 47.2 company’s massive order-taking, its turnaround is likely to outpace that of competitors. Relative -0.4 35.9 48.0 HMD has improved its competitiveness despite recording sluggish earnings. As such, we Share price 180 KOSPI advise investors to focus more on the company’s potential to lead price increases and 160 dominate the global market than on its current sluggishness. The shipbuilder has proven 140 its technological prowess by taking the world’s first orders for product carriers with 120 dual-fuel engines. Indeed, HMD has established itself as an unrivaled global shipbuilder in 100 the small- to mid-sized segment. We recommend that investors take note of the 80 12/12 4/13 8/13 12/13 shipbuilder’s differentiated position and future growth story. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 4,138 4,624 4,415 3,802 4,086 4,495 Shipbuilding/Machinery OP (Wbn) 683 384 93 -260 -45 220 Ki-jong Sung OP margin (%) 16.5 8.3 2.1 -6.9 -1.1 4.9 +822-768-3263 NP (Wbn) 493 200 97 -216 -2 312 [email protected] EPS (W) 24,629 9,992 4,828 -10,811 -99 15,612 ROE (%) 14.7 5.5 3.0 -7.4 -0.1 12.1 P/E (x) 9.1 11.2 26.3 - - 11.6 P/B (x) 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Mando (060980 KS/Buy) Company visit comment 4Q13 earnings tracking lower than consensus Company Visit Note Growth in China to continue into 2014 December 18, 2013 Maintain Buy rating with TP of W170,000 4Q13 earnings likely to slightly miss consensus Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. After our meeting with Mando, we believe the company’s 4Q13 revenue and operating profit Auto/Auto parts/Tire are likely to miss the respective market consensus estimates of W1.51tr and W91.8bn (OP Michael Yun margin of 6.1%). We attribute the expected earnings miss to worse-than-anticipated +822-768-4169 production at Hyundai Motor’s (HMC) and Kia Motors’ Korean plants, along with a stronger [email protected] won. HMC’s October-November production in Korea declined by 4.3% YoY. Mando is guiding Young-ho Park revenue slightly below W1.5tr on an OP margin in the high-5% range. On a full-year basis, +822-768-3033 Mando is still on track to post solid top-line growth of close to 12%, with OP margin [email protected] improvement of 0.6%p. Sangmin Lee +822-768-4170 Growth in China still strong [email protected] While domestic operations have been weaker than expected, the Chinese business is on track to beat company targets in 2013 thanks to solid local sales by HMC and Kia. We believe Mando’s Chinese operations will continue to lead the company’s growth in 2014, thanks to new orders and new products. Mando’s Chinese joint venture with Geely should see its revenue jump by 65% YoY in 2014, thanks to the launches of new products (e.g., electric power steering (EPS) and anti-lock braking systems (ABS)). This should help the joint venture turn to black after two years of losses. In addition, Great Wall China will start contributing to sales in 2014. As the Chinese auto market’s overall mix improves, we see more potential for electronic parts (e.g., EPS, ABS) to be adopted by Chinese manufacturers, opening up more doors for Mando.
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