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October 17, 2013 October 17, 2013 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) NAVER (Buy/TP: W700,000) Raise TP KOSPI 2,040.61 6.00 0.29 3Q earnings to reaffirm LINE’s growth potential KOSPI 200 269.59 1.34 0.50 KOSDAQ 521.52 -4.16 -0.79 KT (Buy/TP: W44,000) Next step for KT’s media business: KT Media Hub Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 303,614 4,836 KOSPI 200 92,455 4,084 KOSDAQ 343,518 1,817 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,195,012 KOSDAQ 121,826 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,272 990 282 Institutional 1,170 1,394 -224 Retail 2,360 2,392 -32 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 101 81 21 Institutional 74 136 -62 Retail 1,637 1,596 41 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 874 687 187 KOSDAQ 23 16 7 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 348 463 73 KOSDAQ 330 567 84 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value KODEX LEVERAGE 12,920 100 307 Samsung Electronics 1,463,000 13,000 264 KEPCO 27,500 -2,000 206 NHN 610,000 15,000 186 Hyundai Steel 88,800 3,800 168 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value DILLI 2,780 -65 54 CJ E&M 36,450 -450 54 MAXROTEC 7,040 -80 45 Seoul Semiconductor 43,350 -1,250 40 Celltrion 47,950 -200 38 Note: As of October 17, 2013 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. NAVER (035420 KS) 3Q earnings to reaffirm LINE’s growth potential IT services 3Q LINE revenue to soar 1,273% YoY to W178bn Cumulative LINE downloads topped 270mn on October 14th, rising from 260mn on Earnings Preview September 30th. We expect cumulative downloads will meet our year-end forecast of October 17, 2013 330mn. We estimate LINE revenue surged to W178bn in 3Q, up 1,273% YoY and 59.5% QoQ. In 3Q, four to five LINE games have landed in the top-ten highest grossing mobile games in (Maintain) Buy Japan, including the puzzle game PokoPang (developed by Treenod and released in June). Target Price (12M, W) 700,000 LINE currently services 37 games as of end-3Q, an increase from 32 at end-2Q. In 4Q, the Share Price (10/16/13, W) 595,000 mobile messaging service plans to: 1) release localized mobile games in Taiwan, 2) add app store payment partners to promote the switch to paid apps, and 3) introduce new Expected Return 18% profit models (music streaming and e-commerce services). Marketing spend jumps in 3Q; Look for LINE growth and seasonal strength in 4Q OP (13F, Wbn) 573 Effective August 1st, NAVER will change its accounting method for recognizing LINE Consensus OP (13F, Wbn) 715 revenue to booking net game revenue (the portion (35%) of gross game revenue that EPS Growth (13F, %) 23.3 goes to LINE). Previously, the company recognized gross game revenue, which included Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 20.9 commissions paid to app stores and the share of revenue given to developers. P/E (13F, x) 42.5 We estimate NAVER’s 3Q revenue climbed 41.1% YoY to W616.7bn. Display ad revenue Market P/E (13F, x) 10.6 likely contracted 18.7% YoY amid the absence of sports and political events and sluggish KOSPI 2,034.61 economic conditions, but we believe this was more than offset by a sharp increase in Market Cap (Wbn) 19,613 both mobile search-ad and LINE revenue (latter based on gross game revenue). Shares Outstanding (mn) 33 Free Float (%) 76.8 We forecast 3Q operating profit to markedly decline QoQ and YoY to W109.8bn. We Foreign Ownership (%) 56.8 mainly attribute this to aggressive global promotional events, which likely pushed up Beta (12M) 1.08 marketing spend to W98bn (vs. W42bn in 2Q). 52-Week Low (W) 215,000 Raise TP by 4.5% to W700,000 following share gains of peer group 52-Week High (W) 639,000 We maintain our Buy call on NAVER and raise our target price to W700,000 (from (%) 1M 6M 12M W670,000) in light of the recent share appreciation of its global peers (Facebook, Absolute 12.5 96.7 115.9 Google, etc.). We derived our target price by applying the P/Es of global peers, Google Relative 11.4 90.9 111.1 and Facebook, to our 2014F EPS (based on the operating profit contributions of the Share price online portal business and LINE). 260 KOSPI 210 The shares of Facebook, which have lately shown a high stock correlation with NAVER, is th 160 set to announce its 3Q earnings results on October 30 (local time). The Bloomberg 110 consensus calls for a 50.5% rise in revenue and 108.4% surge in operating profit for 3Q. 60 Mobile ad revenue is estimated to jump 392% YoY to US$750mn, contributing 44.7% to 10/12 2/13 6/13 10/13 overall ad revenue. Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 1,785 2,121 2,389 2,430 3,491 4,098 Internet/Game/Entertainment OP (Wbn) 590 660 702 573 1,023 1,206 Chang-kwean Kim OP Margin (%) 33.1 31.1 29.4 23.6 29.3 29.4 +822-768-4321 NP (Wbn) 473 450 546 461 710 853 [email protected] EPS (W) 9,830 9,350 11,346 13,992 21,543 25,864 ROE (%) 41.0 31.0 31.4 25.9 37.5 35.7 P/E (x) 36.2 35.4 31.4 42.5 27.6 23.0 P/B (x) 9.5 7.1 6.3 31.1 16.1 10.1 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. KT (030200 KS/Buy) Next step for KT’s media business: KT Media Hub KT Media Hub in charge of KT’s IPTV operation, mobile IPTV, advertisements and content businesses Company Update KT Media Hub to contribute to KT’s subscriber retention and profit margin growth October 17, 2013 near-term, as the control tower of the group’s media business Watch for KT Media Hub’s transformation into a total media content group in the long term Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. Maintain Buy and target price of W44,000 for KT which has a promising media business and attractive dividend yield of 5.6% Media/Telecom service Jee-hyun Moon 1. As KT expands media business, attention now on next phase of growth +822-768-3615 KT’s media and content revenue is currently growing at an impressive rate of over 30% YoY. [email protected] The KT group has been expanding its dominance in the pay-TV market, with more than 6mn media subscribers from IPTV and satellite TV (KT Skylife) combined. Now that KT has secured quantitative growth, much attention is being focused on what the next chapter will be for the company. Lately, there have been talks among lawmakers of potentially regulating pay-TV market share based on total media subscribers. Going forward, KT plans to seek ways to boost its media subscriber base beyond IPTV to new media segments like mobile IPTV. It is also looking to expand its content and convergence services and improve its ARPU by driving additional revenue streams. And by building on its broad subscriber base, the company intends to launch a series of new business initiatives. All in all, we believe KT’s media business is on track to achieve qualitative growth. Leading the charge is KT Media Hub, the group’s media content company, which was spun off from KT in late October 2012. Figure 1. KT’s media and content sales are growing along with its subscriber base (Wbn) ('000 ppl) 400 7,200 KT media content sales (L) KT media subscribers (R) 300 6,400 200 5,600 100 4,800 0 4,000 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13F Notes: Consolidated basis. IPTV, satellite and content combined; Numbers reflect our forecast from 3Q13 Source: KT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 20,009 21,258 23,790 23,468 24,236 24,991 OP (Wbn) 2,008 1,748 1,214 1,241 1,359 1,496 OP Margin (%) 10.0 8.2 5.1 5.3 5.6 6.0 NP (Wbn) 1,477 1,435 1,057 976 1,073 1,182 EPS (W) 5,655 5,497 4,048 3,738 4,111 4,527 ROE (%) 13.7 12.6 8.8 7.8 8.3 8.8 P/E (x) 8.2 6.5 8.8 9.5 8.7 7.9 P/B (x) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
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