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Q--Daily News-2015-Jun-20150610-Te.Mdi Thursday, 11 June 2015 CONSTRUCTION SECTOR/COMPANY UPDATE BUY Waskita Karya Target Price, IDR 2,150 Upside 28.7% On higher ground WSKT IJ/WSKT.JK Post-rights issue, Waskita will be the largest state contractor, thus the company will Last Price, IDR 1,670 have no problems in financing either its future investments or working capital, No. of shares, mn (post-rights) 13,567 ensuring, we believe, a brighter future for the company and a faster pace of growth. Going forward, Waskita’s ventures into toll road investments should boost its order Market Cap, IDR bn 22,657 book and lead to higher profitability as well. All in all, our post-rights valuation (US$ mn) 1,702 suggests TP of Rp2,150. Waskita remains as one of our Top Picks in our construction 3M T/O, US$mn 1.6 sector universe. BUY. Last Recommendation The company that delivers 22-May-2015 BUY IDR 2,100 Backed by its growing order book and sound reputation, Waskita growth story has continued to 04-May-2015 BUY IDR 2,100 unfold and earnings quality has improved. Post-IPO, Waskita successfully restructured its debts 05-Mar-2015 BUY IDR 2,100 and, at the same time, the IPO proceeds gave the company more flexibility in its balance sheet to WSKT relative to JCI Index work on larger projects. Subsequently, Waskita’s total carry-over projects in 2015 stood at Rp20.3tn, or 2.0x its FY14 total revenues – meaning that projects are sufficient to fuel growth. All in all, the IDR WSKT (LHS) Relative to JCI Index (RHS) % 2,000 155 new government’s infrastructure acceleration program should benefit Waskita given that government-related projects remain very important to the company. 115 1,500 Waskita has entered a new era 75 After improving its profitability in recent years, Waskita is also eyeing further improvements by 1,000 35 venturing into toll road investments. To minimize the default risk, Waskita has also taken majority 500 -5 ownership in some sections in order to manage the progress and directly obtain the construction value with higher profitability as well. At present, Waskita has a total of four ongoing toll road 7/9/14 8/6/14 9/3/14 6/11/14 10/1/14 1/21/15 2/18/15 3/18/15 4/15/15 5/13/15 6/10/15 10/29/14 11/26/14 12/24/14 projects in the pipeline, namely: 1) Pejagan-Pemalang, 2) Bekasi-Cawang-Kp. Melayu, 3) Medan- Market Recommendation Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi, and 4) Depok-Antasari. Most of the projects have already reached critical scale, meaning that the risk of delay is minimal. Aside from these projects, Waskita is also BUY 13 eyeing several potential toll road projects which may transpire in the future. HOLD 2 The government’s capital injection to accelerate growth As one of the state-contractors, Waskita is an agent of development, especially in regard to toll SELL 4 road development in Indonesia. The government’s capital injection of Rp3.5tn will translate into Consensus a potential rights issue of up to Rp5.3tn given that the government’s stake in Waskita will be Our Cons % Diff undiluted. As a result, Waskita’s equity will increase significantly to Rp8.8tn by EOY15F – making Target price, IDR 2,150 1,908 12.7 the company the largest among the state-contractors. EPS 2015F, IDR 56.2 63.8 -11.9 Post-rights valuation suggests TP of Rp2,150 PE 2015F, x 29.7 26.2 13.4 We forecast Waskita’s net profits to accelerate by 34% CAGR in FY14-17F on the back of a combination of a larger order book size and margins improvement from the contribution coming from higher margin toll road projects. All in all, we continue to value Waskita using the target FY16F PE of 25.7x – at par with 1.0sd above the sector mean during the up-cycle period. Our post-rights valuation suggests fair value of Rp2,150/share. BUY. 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F Revenues, Rp bn 9,687 10,287 14,268 18,568 21,874 EBITDA, Rp bn 725 961 1,440 1,885 2,174 EBITDA Growth, % 26.3 32.6 49.8 31.0 15.3 Net Profit, Rp bn 368 502 762 1,129 1,204 Core Profit, Rp bn 363 488 762 1,129 1,204 Joko Sogie Core EPS, Rp 37.7 50.1 56.2 83.2 88.8 (62-21) 2955 5827 Core EPS Growth, % 63.2 33.1 12.0 48.2 6.7 [email protected] Net Gearing, % 21.1 52.2 Net cash 0.1 3.2 PER, x 43.7 32.4 29.7 20.1 18.8 Danareksa research reports are also Core PER, x 44.3 33.3 29.7 20.1 18.8 available at Reuters Multex and First Call PBV, x 6.7 5.7 2.6 2.3 2.1 Direct and Bloomberg. EV/EBITDA, x 22.9 18.4 14.6 12.0 10.6 Yield, % 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.0 www.danareksa.com See important disclosure on the back of this report 11 June 2015 Waskita Karya Post-rights Valuation Valuing the core business Despite the potential NPV inclusion from Waskita’s toll road investments, we continue to value Waskita based on its core business in general construction services. We consider Waskita’s toll road projects as normal construction works, with higher profitability for the Pejagan-Pemalang and Becakayu toll road sections. We set a 10% gross margin for Waskita’s non-toll road projects, a figure which we believe should be sustainable going forward given the company’s track record and the industry’s characteristics. Meanwhile, we set a 15% gross margin for the civil construction works in the Pejagan-Pemalang and Becakayu toll roads and a 20% gross margin for the precast supplied to the Becakayu toll road. In our calculation, we have also incorporated the Rp5.3tn equity proceeds from the planned rights issue that will take place in 3Q15F, meaning the company only had high gearing in 1H15. The fact that Waskita has the largest equity size among the state-contractors will allow Waskita to get sizeable contracts going forward, we believe. As a result, we expect Waskita’s net profits to grow by 34% CAGR in FY14-17F on the back of a combination of a larger order book size and margins improvement from the contribution of higher margin toll road projects. During the period, we expect revenues to grow by 29% CAGR on the back of 15% CAGR in its order book and a higher order book burn- rate to reflect the project’s lifetime. We believe Waskita is perfectly paced to continue its positive growth momentum, bearing in mind the company’s potential high-margin toll road projects and the further acceleration in infrastructure development driven by the government. Post-rights valuation suggests TP of Rp2,150 All in all, we continue to value Waskita based on Indonesia’s state contractor PE multiple. This method, we believe, can capture the earnings growth cycle, especially during Indonesia’s infrastructure up-cycle starting in 2012. Our PE assumption is based on the listed state- contractors which include Wijaya Karya (WIKA), Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP), Adhi Karya (ADHI), and Waskita Karya (WSKT). In our view, the Indonesia-listed state-contractors are the best comparisons given that they are exposed to similar project characteristics and the cyclical nature of Indonesia’s construction industry, regulations and market risk. The period we consider starts in 2012, when the government during the President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) era started to disburse large infrastructure funds during the initiation of MP3EI (Master Plan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia Economic Development). Exhibit 1. Construction sector PE multiple during up-cycle period WSKT IJ Equity Sector Avg +0.5sd +1.0sd 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 - Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Source: Bloomberg 2 11 June 2015 Waskita Karya We also roll over our Target Price to 2016F to capture the full benefit of Waskita’s rights issue proceeds in the company’s financials. We believe that earnings visibility from its order book remains sound with the ongoing projects in the pipeline. We set the target PE at 25.7x – 1.0sd above the sector mean given Waskita’s strong earnings growth (above the industry average). Utilizing the target PE with our FY16F earnings estimate, our post-rights valuation suggests fair value of Rp2,150/share. BUY. Exhibit 2. Our valuation for Waskita Net income FY16F, Rp bn 1,129 Sector PE: Average, x 19.4 Sector PE: Std. deviation, x 6.3 Waskita Target PE: Average + 1.0 SD, x 25.7 Total shares –post rights issue, bn 13.6 Waskita Target Price, Rp/share 2,150 Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas Toll road calculation Given that Waskita’s intention to venture into the toll road business is to obtain construction works, we do not value the potential contribution of these toll roads after they commence operation. However, our back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that the Pejagan-Pemalang and Becakayu toll road projects have resulted in NPV of Rp1,203bn and Rp937bn, respectively. In our calculations, the projects also show good IRR for toll road projects with the Pejagan- Pemalang toll road giving a 14.9% IRR and the Becakayu toll road a 13.7% IRR.
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