Developmental Center Mixed-Use Project EIS Empire State Development

Chapter 16: GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

16.1 Introduction As explained in the CEQR Technical Manual, increased greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions contribute to climate change, the effects of which are predicted to include rising sea levels, increases in temperature, and changes in precipitation levels. While climate change occurs at a global level, effects can be experienced at the local level. For example, in , increases in summertime electricity demand to support air conditioner usage may lead to power outages. Changes in sea level could directly affect coastal areas and lead to increased potential for flooding in some areas, which could cause damage to infrastructure not designed to withstand saltwater exposure. Increased precipitation could affect the function of sewer systems, and also lead to flooding of streets, while periods of drought could affect the municipal water supply.

GHGs include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, which contribute to atmospheric absorption of infrared radiation and cause heat to be retained in the atmosphere. In New York City, the energy used by buildings in general, and residential buildings in particular (such as the residential buildings that would be constructed as part of the Proposed Project) result in the largest percentage-by-sector of total GHG emissions.

Per the guidance of the CEQR Technical Manual, a GHG consistency assessment is warranted for any project that would result in 350,000 square feet (“sf”) or more of development. As described in Chapter 1, “Project Description,” the Proposed Project would include approximately 1.1 million sf of residential and commercial space. Therefore, a GHG consistency assessment is warranted for the Proposed Project.

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16.2 Principal Conclusions

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS The Proposed Project is estimated to generate approximately 18,1951 total metric tons of carbon dioxide

equivalents (“CO2e”) emissions on an annual basis resulting from building operations and approximately

12,157 metric tons of CO2e emissions from mobile sources. As a point of comparison, this estimated

annual total of approximately 30,352 metric tons of CO2e emissions represents approximately 0.06 percent of the 2016 annual total for all of New York City, which is estimated to have been approximately 52.0 million metric tons.

The Proposed Project would be consistent with the goals of encouraging construction of resource- and energy-efficient buildings and encouraging development that is reliant upon public transit. The Proposed Project would partially rely on renewable energy sources, expected to include on-site solar and/or geothermal loop to serve each building group. The residential development, building construction, and building operations would be Enterprise Green Communities Certified or achieve a higher green building standard. In addition, some critical building infrastructure, including boiler rooms, would be located at the rooftop, making it more efficient in operations (compared to cellar locations).

Finally, the Proposed Project would be consistent with current City policy aimed at reducing GHG emissions by 2050 through a variety of City initiatives. In particular, the Proposed Project would support development that relies on sustainable modes of transportation. Specifically, the Proposed Project would provide dedicated on-site residential parking spaces of an amount equal to approximately 15 percent of the proposed dwelling units not set aside for senior or supportive housing, compared to the provision of on-site parking for between 80 percent and 100 percent of dwelling units as would typically be required of R7-A zoning (the equivalent of which would be effectuated through the General Project Plan. Rather, the Proposed Project would take advantage of an existing network of public transit that serves the Project Site. For example, although the Project Site does not have direct access to service, the Project Site is served directly by four Metropolitan Transportation Authority (“MTA”) bus routes (which also provide linkage to subways), as well as bicycle paths and pedestrian walkways. Therefore, the Proposed Project would be consistent with applicable policy associated with GHG emissions and climate change.

1 This calculation is based on the methodology provided within the CEQR Technical Manual; therefore, it does not take into consideration the use of renewable energy, as is currently planned with the Proposed Project, or the Proposed Project’s compliance with Local Law 97, which would result in fewer carbon emissions.

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RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE The Proposed Project is designed to account for future sea level rise conditions as provided in 6 NYCRR Part 490. As such, it would be consistent with the New York City Department of City Planning’s (“NYCDCP”) Waterfront Revitalization Program (“WRP”), the New York State Department of State’s (“NYSDOS”) Coastal Management Program, and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation’s (“NYSDEC”) guidance issued pursuant to the Community Risk and Resiliency Act. The Proposed Project would be designed to the 500-Year Flood Event in 2080 and would receive adequate flood protection over the course of its lifespan according to projected sea level rise scenarios provided in 6 NYCRR Part 490, and would comply with NYSDEC’s Flood Risk Management Guidance.

16.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions

POLLUTANTS OF CONCERN There are six principal greenhouse gases that enter the atmosphere due to human activities. These include:

Carbon Dioxide (“CO2”)

CO2 is the most prevalent of the principle GHGs. CO2 is emitted primarily from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) by power plants and motor vehicles, the burning of solid waste, trees, and wood products, and as a result of chemical reactions such as the manufacture of cement.

Methane (“CH4”)

CH4 is emitted during the production and transport of various energy sources, including coal, natural gas, and oil. Methane also comes from agricultural practices, natural decomposition of peat marshes, and from landfills as waste decays.

Nitrous Oxide (“N2O”)

N2O is emitted during various agricultural and manufacturing activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.

Fluorinated Gases Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic gases that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes. These include refrigeration, aluminum smelting, semiconductor manufacturing, and various electrical systems. These gases are emitted in smaller quantities than the

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others, as shown in Figure 16-1, “Primary GHG Emissions as a Percentage of the Total.” However, they have a high Global Warming Potential (“GWP”) (i.e., the potential to trap heat in the atmosphere).

Figure 16-1: Primary GHG Emissions as a Percentage of the Total

Source: USEPA, 2018 (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases)

No significant direct or indirect sources of fluorinated gases, which typically are emitted through industrial processes, electricity transmission, and use of substitutes for ozone-depleting products, are expected to be associated with the Proposed Project. Therefore, the GHG assessment for the Proposed Project focuses on three GHGs: CO2, N2O, and CH4.

Because GHGs differ in their ability to trap heat, as per guidelines outlined in the CEQR Technical Manual, all calculations of emissions for the Proposed Project will be presented in units of metric tons of CO2e.

This represents a common measure that allows gases such as CO2 and methane with different global warming potentials to be added together and compared. In order to convert gases into units of metric tons of CO2e, a list of GWPs for the primary greenhouse gases is presented in Table 16-1, “Global Warming

Potential for Primary Greenhouse Gases (CO2 Equivalents – CO2e).” Based on the table, Methane has

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approximately twenty-one times the global warming potential as carbon dioxide, with sulfur hexafluoride having almost approximately twenty-four thousand times the potential.

Table 16-1: Global Warming Potential for Primary Greenhouse Gases (CO2 Equivalents – CO2e)

Greenhouse Gas Global Warming Potential

CO2 - Carbon Dioxide 1

CH4 - Methane 21

N2O - Nitrous Oxide 310 HFCs - Hydrofluorocarbons 140-11,700* PFCs - Perfluorocarbons 6,500-9,200*

SF6 - Sulfur Hexafluoride 23,900 Notes:

Subsequent to the Second Assessment Report (“SAR”), which was published in 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) has published updated GWP values in its Third Assessment Report (“TAR”) and Fourth Assessment Report (“AR4”) that reflect new information

on atmospheric lifetimes of greenhouse gases and an improved calculation of the radiative forcing of CO2. However, GWP values from the SAR are still used by international convention to maintain consistency in GHG reporting, including by the United States when reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. * The GWPs of HFCs and PFCs vary depending on the specific compound emitted. A full list of these GWPs is available in Table ES-1 of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2008, available at: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/usinventoryreport.html. Source: 2020 CEQR Technical Manual, Table 18-1, “Global Warming Potential for Primary Greenhouse Gases”

POLICY, REGULATIONS, STANDARDS AND BENCHMARKS FOR REDUCING GHG EMISSIONS

METHODOLOGY The particular GHG emissions resulting from a single proposed action may be considered an insignificant portion of total global GHG emissions. However, the CEQR Technical Manual states that a GHG assessment of certain actions should be conducted to determine the project’s consistency with the Citywide GHG reduction goal of reducing GHG emissions 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This goal was developed as part of PlaNYC2 for the purpose of planning for increases in the city population while achieving significant greenhouse gas reductions. It was initially codified by the New York City Climate Protection Act (Local Law 22 of 2008) and further strengthened by One NYC 2050: Building a Strong and Fair City3 (“OneNYC”), which develops the goals outlined by previous PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resilient New York (“PlaNYC”)4 efforts as they relate to GHG emissions. Through the OneNYC policy, the City is

2 PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resilient New York. June 2013. The City of New York. 3 One NYC 2050: Building a Strong and Fair City. April 2019. The City of New York. 4 Note that the CEQR Technical Manual references PlaNYC, rather than the subsequent OneNYC, though OneNYC is considered the mayoral policy currently in effect for the purposes of this EIS.

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committed to achieving 80 percent reductions in GHG emissions by 2050. New York City Local Law 97, which was passed by the New York City Council on April 18, 2019, is aimed at achieving emission reductions. The law requires most large (over 25,000 sf in 2017) existing buildings in New York City to reduce their overall emissions by 40 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050 and imposes energy use restrictions on both new and old buildings to achieve GHG reduction goals.

The assessment of GHG emissions focuses on the potential for a proposed action to result in increased emissions of GHGs both on-site and off-site. Pursuant to guidelines outlined in the CEQR Technical Manual, GHG estimates are typically determined for the four primary emissions sources which include: operations (direct and indirect); mobile sources (direct and indirect); and, when applicable, emissions from both construction activities and the solid waste management process.

The assessment includes emissions calculations from mobile and operations sources of the Proposed Project. Emissions associated with construction of the Proposed Project are described qualitatively, based on other similar analyses for large building construction, because there is insufficient construction related data for the Proposed Project at this time and because the Proposed Project’s construction phase is not likely to be a significant part of total emissions. Similarly, because the Proposed Project is not expected to fundamentally change the City’s solid waste management system, an estimate of emissions from solid waste management is not warranted.

Because GHG emissions impact the global climate, a project’s associated GHG emissions cannot be assessed for a potential discernible localized impact. Therefore, according to the CEQR Technical Manual, the assessment of GHG incorporates a two-step process.

Step one involves calculating the total GHG emissions associated with a project and examining the contribution of GHG emissions of the Proposed Project in relation to qualitative goals for reducing GHG emissions.

The second step is to assess the consistency of the Proposed Project with the GHG reduction goals set forth in the CEQR Technical Manual and the policies of PlaNYC (and, consequently, OneNYC).

Operations Emissions Calculation GHG emissions attributable to future operations on the Project Site are calculated based on the floor area measurements of the buildings for the Proposed Project. Carbon intensity data (GHG emissions per gross square foot of floor area) from Table 18-5 in the CEQR Technical Manual are used to develop projections of operations emissions. All energy sources (e.g., natural gas, electricity etc.) that potentially could be used for the Proposed Project are considered for the purpose of calculating carbon intensity.

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Mobile Source Emissions Calculation Mobile source GHG emissions that would be induced by the Proposed Project (i.e., the GHG emissions associated with transportation serving the Project Site in the future with the Proposed Actions), are calculated according to the transportation planning factors developed for the Transportation Analyses prepared for this EIS (see Chapter 14, “Transportation,” Table 14-2, “Transportation Planning Factors”) and baseline vehicle miles traveled (“VMT”) data provided in Table 18-5 and Table 18-6 of the CEQR Technical Manual. The assignments for project-induced trips throughout the City, based on roadway types, are based on Table 18-7 of the CEQR Technical Manual.

PROJECTED GHG EMISSIONS FROM THE PROPOSED PROJECT

Operations Table 16-2, “Annual Operational Emissions – Proposed Project,” displays the estimated GHG emissions that would be associated with the on-site operations of the Proposed Project, once fully completed and occupied in 2031. As shown in Table 16-2, “Annual Operational Emissions – Proposed Project,” annual operational GHG emissions with the Proposed Project are estimated to be approximately 19,460 metric tons CO2e.

Table 16-2: Annual Operational Emissions – Proposed Project Carbon Intensity Proposed Project GHG Emissions (kg GHG Emissions Building Type 2 2 Rates (kg CO2e/ft ) Floor Area (ft ) CO2e) (metric tons CO2e) Commercial 9.43 143,992 1,357,845 1,358 Light Manufacturing 21.18 29,746 630,020 630 Community Facilities 11.42 55,384 632,485 632 Large Residential (> 4 6.59 2,475,760 16,315,258 16,315 family) Parking 1.24* 213,643 264,917 265 Other 21.18^ 12,250 259,455 259 Total 19,460 *Based on assumptions used in the NYCDCP Industry City FEIS, 2020. ^Other includes a biodigester, a trash collection point, and a security booth. As these uses are undefined by the CEQR Technical Manual, the industrial (21.18) carbon intensity rate was applied to ensure a conservative analysis. Source: STV Incorporated, 2021.

Mobile Sources The projected annual VMT with the Proposed Project, which form the basis for the mobile-source GHG emissions calculations, are summarized in Table 16-3, “Proposed Project Annual VMT (miles/year).”

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Table 16-3: Proposed Project Annual VMT (miles/year)

Land Use Total Project Health Clinic Manufacturing Mode Residential Supportive Community Movie Related VMT Senior Housing Local Retail Supermarket (Medical Health Club (Light Restaurant (Affordable) Housing Center Theater Office) Industrial) by Mode 10,588,604 Auto 1,172,564 1,486,104 366,137 1,677,734 92,629 2,031,506 2,134,556 2,031,506 208,005 90,011 21,879,354

Taxi 140,682 296,599 415,535 438,512 21,465 21,524 1,334,318

Truck 1,406,214 155,722 206,281 76,980 92,450 97,154 125,617 443,840 22,677 276,428 126,328 3,029,691 Total Project Related VMT 11,994,818 1,328,285 1,833,066 443,117 2,066,783 189,783 2,572,658 3,016,909 2,075,648 484,434 237,863 26,243,363 by Land Use Source: STV Incorporated, 2021

Utilizing the VMT projections presented in the previous Table 16-3, “Proposed Project Annual VMT (miles/year),” the CEQR Technical Manual mobile source GHG emissions calculator5 is used to estimate GHG emissions for cars, taxis, and trucks, comprising the transportation activities attributable to the Proposed Project upon its full completion and occupancy in 2031. As shown in Table 16-4, “Annual Mobile

Source Emissions – Proposed Project (metric tons CO2e),” annual mobile source emissions related to the

Proposed Project would result in approximately 12,157 metric tons of CO2e emissions.

Table 16-4: Annual Mobile Source Emissions – Proposed Project (metric tons CO2e)

Mode Total GHG Emissions Road Type by Road Type Passenger Vehicle Taxi Truck

1,739 97 1,152 2,987 Local

3,335 183 2,005 5,523 Arterial

2,231 120 1,296 3,647 Freeways

7,305 399 4,452 12,157 Total

Source: STV Incorporated, 2021

Construction The assessment of construction emissions for large development projects6 within New York City show that estimated annual construction emissions appear to be significantly less than the total combined annual emissions from operational and mobile sources. These emissions, annualized over the lifetime of the

5 CEQR Technical Manual - Chapter 18, “mobile GHG emissions calculator” 6 Project examples include GHG analyses prepared for the Riverside Center EIS, Domino Sugar Rezoning EIS, and Western Rail Yard EIS.

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project (typically 80 years for developments such as the Proposed Project), appear to be no more than approximately 8 percent of the total annual emissions from both operational and mobile sources. Based on this assumption, total GHG emissions from construction as a result of the Proposed Project are estimated at approximately 2,529 metric tons of CO2e emissions.

Table 16-5, “Total Annual GHG Emissions – Proposed Project (metric tons CO2e),” shows the results of the GHG assessment for both operational and mobile sources, calculated for the year 2030. The estimated total of approximately 34,146 metric tons of GHG emissions represents approximately 0.06 percent of the 2016 annual total for all of New York City, which is estimated to have been approximately 52.0 million metric tons.

Table 16-5: Total Annual GHG Emissions – Proposed Project (metric tons CO2e)

Emissions Source Total GHG Emissions

Operational 19,460 Mobile 12,157 Construction 2,529 Total 34,146 Notes:

* Based on the assumption that GHG construction emissions appear to be no more than approximately 8 percent of the total annual emissions from both operational and mobile sources. Source: STV Incorporated, 2021.

CONSISTENCY WITH THE GHG REDUCTION POLICIES The CEQR Technical Manual does not provide a threshold criterion against which GHG emission quantities would be compared to determine impact significance, but the CEQR Technical Manual provides guidance for assessing the consistency of the Proposed Project with the GHG reduction goal through consideration of whether the Proposed Project would meet objectives related to:

• encouraging transit-oriented development, • generating and expanding the use of clean and renewable energy, • constructing resource- and energy-efficient buildings, and • encouraging sustainable transportation through improvements to public transit, private vehicle efficiency, and decreases in the carbon intensity of fuels.

Further, the CEQR Technical Manual states that a GHG assessment of certain actions should be conducted to determine the project’s consistency with the Citywide GHG goal of reducing GHG emissions 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. However, this goal was developed as part of PlaNYC and was initially codified by the New York City Climate Protection Act (Local Law 22 of 2008); subsequently, OneNYC has been adopted.

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OneNYC OneNYC retains the primary goals of PlaNYC at its core, outlining goals and initiatives per each of the four “Visions,” the third of which, “Our Sustainable City,” includes policies related to reduction of GHG emissions. Specifically, OneNYC states that New York City GHG emissions will be 80 percent lower by 2050 than in 2005. This goal is further expressed in OneNYC through a series of Initiatives:

Initiative 1: Develop near-term local actions and long-term regional strategies to reduce GHG emissions from the power sector by:

A. Removing barriers to more efficient power generation and increased renewable power production; B. Supporting the development of renewable power resources; C. Increasing the share of wind power in the City’s power mix; D. Adopting smart grid technologies; E. Expanding decentralized power production; and F. Achieving net-zero energy at in-city wastewater treatments plants by 2050.

Initiative 2: Develop a mode shift action plan to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector by reducing carbon emissions from the City government’s vehicle fleet.

Initiative 3: Build upon Zero Waste (sending zero waste to landfills by 2030) to reduce GHG from the solid waste sector; and

Initiative 4: Continue implementation of “One City: Built to Last” to reduce GHG emissions from buildings 30 percent by 2025 and chart a long-term away from fossil fuels.

In considering the consistency of the Proposed Project with the applicable GHG emissions policy, it is noted that the Proposed Project is not of a type that would directly affect power generation on a large scale or alter municipal facilities or vehicle fleet. However, there remain applicable elements of GHG emissions policy with which the Proposed Project would be consistent. The Proposed Project would be consistent with the goals of encouraging construction of resource- and energy-efficient buildings and encouraging development that is reliant upon public transit, as outlined in the CEQR Technical Manual, and it would be consistent with OneNYC initiatives aimed at increasing use of renewable energies. Specifically, as described in Chapter 1, “Project Description,” the Proposed Project development, building construction, and building operations would be Enterprise Green Communities Certified or achieve a higher green building standard. In addition, some critical building infrastructure, including boiler rooms, would be located at the rooftop, making it more efficient in operations (compared to cellar locations).

Finally, the Proposed Project would be consistent with current City policy aimed at reducing GHG emissions by 2050 through a variety of City initiatives. In particular, the Proposed Project would

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support development that relies on sustainable modes of transportation. Specifically, the Proposed Project would provide dedicated on-site parking spaces of an amount equal to approximately 15 percent of the proposed dwelling units not set aside for senior or supportive housing, compared to the provision of on-site parking for between 80 percent and 100 percent of dwelling units as would typically be required of R7-A zoning (the nearest equivalent to the Proposed Project). Rather, the Proposed Project would take advantage of the existing network of public transit that serves the Project Site. For example:

• The Project Site is served directly by four MTA local bus routes (B84, B83, B13, and Q8) which provide linkage to seven MTA subway lines (A, C, J, Z, L, 3, and M) from eight subway stations serving the bus routes;

• The Project Site is served by bicycle facilities, include a bicycle path located along Gateway Drive from Vandalia Avenue to Erskine Street; a bicycle lane along Vandalia Avenue connecting the path to Flatlands Avenue, along Erskine Street connecting to the bicycle path along the Belt Parkway, and along Fountain Avenue adjacent to the Project Site;

• The Project Site is surrounded by local streets and substantial commercial development, including the Gateway Center, which along with the on-site commercial development would be within walking distance of the proposed affordable housing; and

• The Proposed Project would include the provision of a network of pedestrian and bicycle pathways that would connect pedestrians and cyclists to surrounding sidewalks, the previously described existing bike lanes, and open spaces.

Therefore, the Proposed Project would be consistent with applicable portions of City GHG emissions policy, specifically as the proposed method of construction and building operations would be designed to meet Enterprise Green Communities Standards of energy efficiency, and the Proposed Project itself would be Enterprise Green Communities Certified or achieve a higher standard; the Project Site is served by a substantial network of public transit services, bicycle paths, and walkways; and both existing area commercial development and future on-site commercial development would be within walking distance of the Project Site.

New York City Local Law 97 New York City Local Law 97, sometimes referred to as the building emissions law, was part of a package of laws known as the Climate Mobilization Act passed by the New York City Council on April 18, 2019. The law requires most large (over 25,000 sf in 2017) existing buildings in New York City to reduce their overall emissions by 40 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050 as well as imposing energy use restrictions on new buildings. However, carbon emission limits will vary from building to building and will gradually scale up over time. A particular building’s carbon emission limit may be based on the size of the individual

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building, the category of building (as defined in the Building Code occupancy groups), as well as various factors that account for conditions that make a particular building unique (e.g., the provision that buildings that provide more than 35 percent rent-regulated units can use energy efficiency strategies as an alternative to emissions limits; or that mixed-use buildings will have limits that reflect their unique blend of occupancy groups). The law also provides flexibility for buildings to comply with the new law by providing options to buildings other than restricting energy use alone (e.g., achieving some or all of the required reductions by purchasing credits for renewable energy generated in New York City or directly sinking into the New York City grid). For buildings that do not comply with the law, fines will be levied by the City.

Newly constructed buildings are required to comply with Local Law 97 and, as such, the Proposed Project would be expected to comply with the law. The carbon emissions limit for each individual building larger than 25,000 sf is calculated with consideration given to the program and design of each building (i.e., whether a building includes mixed-use development, provides affordable housing, and/or utilizes sustainable energy). Several Proposed Project buildings would not be subject to specific emissions limits under Local Law 97:

• Buildings F, G, I, and J of the Proposed Project would all be less than 25,000 sf, and so they would not be subject to Local Law 97; and • Buildings A1, A2, A3, B1, B2, B3, C1, C2, C3 , D1, D2, D3, E1, E2, and E3 would each consist of residential development with greater than 35 percent rent regulated units, and so they would be exempt from the emission limits as set forth in Local Law 97.

Building K (approximately 267,105 sf) and Building H (approximately 30,000 sf) would both be greater than 25,000 sf and not meet provisions for exemption from limits; therefore, these two buildings would be subject to Local Law 97 emissions limits.

Upon construction of buildings H and K, the New York City Department of Buildings Office of Building Energy and Emissions Performance would assign an annual emissions limit to the buildings based on their unique blend of uses (Building K would contain both commercial and parking uses; Building H would contain both light manufacturing and commercial uses). It is anticipated that both buildings would be in compliance with Local Law 97 through the use of alternative energy sources and/or participation in one of the provisions of the law that allow for compliance through non-emission restriction means (e.g., achieving some or all of the required reductions by purchasing credits for renewable energy generated in NYC or directly sinking into the NYC grid; deducting up to 10 percent of the annual emissions limit by purchasing greenhouse gas offsets; building carbon trading).

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16.4 Resilience to Climate Change

POLICY TO IMPROVE CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE While strategies and guidelines for addressing the effects of climate change are being developed on all levels of government, there are currently no specific requirements for development projects in New York City. However, as detailed in the CEQR Technical Manual, the City is engaged in several initiatives related to assessing potential local impacts of global climate change and developing strategies to make existing and proposed infrastructure and development more resilient to the effects of climate change.

The New York City Department of City Planning’s (“NYCDCP”) Waterfront Revitalization Program (“WRP”) requires consideration of climate change and sea‐level rise for projects located within the City-defined Coastal Zone Boundary. In addition, the New York State Department of State’s (“NYSDOS”) Coastal Management Program requires consideration of climate change and sea‐level rise for projects located within the State-defined Coastal Zone Boundary. The Proposed Project’s consistency with WRP policies and the Coastal Management Program are described in in detail in Chapter 2, “Land Use, Zoning, and Public Policy.”

The New York City Panel on Climate Change (“NPCC”) was charged with developing climate change projections for New York City. NPCC has since provided projections for temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events including coastal flooding in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s.

Official sea level rise projections determined by NYSDEC are contained in 6 NYCRR Part 490, Projected Sea-Level Rise, which sets forth projections in three specified geographic regions, including the New York City/Lower Hudson Region, for the 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, and 2100s. These projections were promulgated pursuant to the Community Risk and Resiliency Act, which is intended to ensure that decisions regarding certain state permits and expenditures consider climate risk, including sea-level rise, and required NYSDEC to adopt regulations establishing science-based state sea-level rise projections. The Proposed Project’s consistency with the CRRA through New York State’s Flood Risk Management guidance is described in in detail in Chapter 2, “Land Use, Zoning, and Public Policy.”

PROJECTED CLIMATE CONDITIONS Although temperature increases and changes in precipitation are projected to occur in the future with climate change, the primary focus of this analysis is on changes in sea level rise and its potential impact on future severe storm levels and normal high tide inundation. While extreme weather events may occur more frequently or in greater severity, the current projections for such events are currently too uncertain for detailed application. However, more frequent flooding resulting from sea level rise is considered in this assessment.

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Currently, the Project Site is comprised of areas designated as Zone X (less than 0.2% chance of flooding) and Zone X Shaded (between 0.2% and 1% chance of flooding) per the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Map Community Panel Number 360497 0236 G & 360497 0238 G, effective date December 5, 2013.

Based on the NYCRR Part 490 projections for sea-level rise, the 100-year and 500-year floodplains are expected to increasingly encroach on the Project Site from the 2020s to 2100s (refer to Chapter 9, “Natural Resources,” Figure 9-5, “Projected 2020s Flood Zones,” Figure 9-6, “Projected 2050s Flood Zones,” Figure 9-7, “Projected 2080s Flood Zones,” and Figure 9-8, “Project 2100s Flood Zones”). In the projected 2020s flood zones, portions of the southern and eastern edges of the Project Site are anticipated to be within the 500-year floodplain. In the 2050s, the northern, eastern, southern, and western edges of the Project Site are anticipated to be within the 500-year floodplain and portions of the southern and eastern edges are anticipated to be within the 100-year floodplain. In the 2080s, the 500-year floodplain would encroach onto the central portion of the Project Site, and the 100-year floodplain would encroach onto larger portions of the southern and eastern edges of the Project Site. In the 2100s, the entire Project Site would be located within either the 500-year or 100-year floodplain.

RESILIENCE OF THE PROPOSED PROJECT TO CLIMATE CHANGE As described in Chapter 2, “Land Use, Zoning and Public Policy,” Chapter 9, “Natural Resources,” and Appendix A, the Proposed Project would be designed to the 500-Year Flood Event in 2080, representing the anticipated useful life of the Proposed Project buildings. As such, the Proposed Project is designed to account for base flood elevation (“BFE”) (approximately 12.9 ft is the lowest BFE on the Project Site), freeboard (approximately +1’-0” for non-critical features and approximately +2’-0” for critical features), and approximately 75 percent 2080s SLR projections (approximately 3’-3” for both non-critical and critical features). Given these considerations, for the lowest points on the Project Site a DFE of approximately 17’-2” for non-critical and approximately 18’-2” for critical features of the Proposed Project would be required. The buildings and open spaces of the Proposed Project would range from a DFE of approximately 17.7 ft to approximately 20 ft, offering adequate protection for these portions of the Project Site. To achieve these DFEs the Project Site would be graded and would utilize transitional zones along the Project Site’s eastern, southern, and western edges, which would slope from between approximately 10 ft and approximately 15.7 ft on the low end to between approximately 17.17 ft to approximately 19 ft on the high end. These transitional areas would consist of surface parking and back of house buildings for trash and recycling holding (Buildings I & J). These elevations are not only consistent with the New York City Climate Resiliency Design Guidelines and the NYSDEC Flood Risk Management Guidance but also in exceedance of the minimum DFE outlined in Appendix G of the NYC Building Code. With these measures in place, the Proposed Project would receive adequate flood protection over the course of its lifespan in any projected sea-level rise scenario.

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