Spring 2012 No.28

What Arab Spring? BESA Center associates discuss the rapidly changing Middle East and its ramifications for Israeli and Western policy

Inside New Thinking for New Mideast Times The Battle over Water Training IDF Officers Keeping the Golan Heights Stopping the Iranians What Arab Spring?

BESA Center experts see an increasingly difficult security environment for emerging from the Arab upheavals of the past year. The Center has launched a major research project to evaluate the rapidly changing Middle East and its implications for Israeli and Western policy. The policy recommendations will soon be published as a book, generously supported by the Tikvah Fund.

BESA Center experts see an “At a time of such uncertainty, Israel 2 increasingly difficult security must preserve and secure its strategic environment for Israel – and for assets. This is not the time for Israel Western interests – emerging from to be taking territorial or other the Arab upheavals of the past year. A risks, since we don't know what is recent conference on "Israeli Security ahead. Israel must maintain defensible Prof. Gabi in a New Regional Environment" and borders, with strategic depth, and Ben-Dor: many subsequent in-house the ability to defend ourselves against “Did someone deliberations paint a gloomy picture of attack. In the Palestinian context, this say Arab the near-term future. means full demilitarization of areas democracy?” under their control. Israel must guard against and prevent the emergence of three hostile Palestinian states – in Jordan, in the West Bank and in "Democracy is not what emerged Gaza,” Gen. Dayan said. from the revolution against the Tsars of Russia 100 years ago, nor has Uzi Dayan: Dayan also called upon Israel to take democracy emerged in many CIS "Preserve the diplomatic initiative and advocate states that threw off the Communist Israel’s for Kurdish independence. "There are yoke. Thus there is no rational, strategic some 30 million Kurds in a clearly- logical or historical basis for assuming assets" defined region spread across four that democracy will result from the countries. They deserve statehood revolutions underway today in the no less than the Palestinians," he Arab world." declared. Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan, former Egypt has a decent chance at a long- national security advisor to the Israeli Prof. Gabi Ben-Dor of Haifa term march towards democracy, Prime Minister, told the November University, who spoke at the Ben-Dor said, but only if the military 2011 BESA Center conference that conference about Arab societies, maintains a degree of moderating upheavals in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, dismissed the notion that a surge control over the country and prevents Syria, Bahrain and elsewhere “prove of enthusiasm for Western-style the Islamists from exploiting the once again that the Arab-Israeli democracy lay behind the recent situation in order to wrest complete conflict is not the central problem in turmoil. "Who says that protests power. this region. The implications for Israel against dictatorship necessarily of this unrest are manifold,” he said. lead to democracy?" he asked. www.besacenter.org Prof. Efraim Karsh of the regime is a lengthy and bloody Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum process. Moreover, regimes with (and a member of the BESA Center deep societal attachments to Islam International Academic Advisory will not suddenly adhere to a liberal- Board) was more pessimistic. "Islam Prof. Eytan democratic ethos. We already see remains the strongest identity Gilboa: how free elections are being hijacked framework in Egyptian society “America is by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.” in particular, and in Arab society fumbling for generally," he said. "The Arab national responses” “It is not clear that Western powers, dictatorships that were layered over particularly the US, are aware of this basic Islamic identity for the past the possibility of losing the eastern 80 years were but a thin veneer of part of the Mediterranean Sea to repression. With the fall of these radical Islam or are preparing in any dictatorships, what remain are the of a confused and untrustworthy way to forestall such a scenario. core Islamic underpinnings of society, America," said Gilboa. Foolishly, they seem to believe that and these will now come to the the so-called Arab Spring heralds an fore. Consequently, no democratic The rise of Islamic groups and improved political environment and structures, processes or values are American indecision together create that Turkey represents 'moderate likely to emerge in the Arab world for a deteriorating security situation for Islam.' American naiveté and European many generations." Israel, according to BESA Center gullibility could become extremely director Prof. Efraim Inbar. "States costly in strategic terms." like Egypt are already losing control of their own territory, and Israel can expect increased cross-border attacks 3 and terrorism. The Turks may ignite a confrontation over energy in the Prof. Efraim eastern Mediterranean. Israel should Karsh: not be cutting its defense budget now. Dr. Max “Islam is the On the contrary, Israel should be Singer: strongest investing more in the military and in “Islamist identity the defense industries – so that we'll regimes framework in be ready for challenges five years or will fail” the region” more down the road."

Panelists at the conference disagreed BESA Center senior research about Western reactions to the Arab associate Dr. Max Singer adds that upheavals. Prof. Hillel Frisch of the “it is certainly too soon to have any BESA Center argued that one could confidence in predictions about the discern the emergence of a clear Prof. Efraim outcome of the ‘Arab Spring,’ but American approach to the changes Inbar: the best bet, unfortunately, is that in the region – a policy construct “Israel should an Arab world experiment with that emphasizes the promotion of not cut its Islamism will cause great suffering democracy while underscoring the defense – and probably new totalitarianisms containment of the influence of Iran, budget” -- before it too comes to be seen as a Russia and China. failure and is eventually rejected by a new generation of Arabs.” Prof. Karsh and Prof. Eytan Gilboa disagreed. "America is fumbling “An Arab Middle East that bases for responses, reacting differently “The expectation of many in the itself on hard-core Islamist regimes in each case, without any obvious West for a rapid Arab transition to will fail mainly because a return to grand strategy," Karsh asserted. democracy reflects ignorance of the Islamic Sharia law and ancient Muslim "Though American responses to each social and political realities of North ways cannot work in today’s world. Middle Eastern state can individually Africa and the Middle East,” Inbar The Shiite example has failed in Iran make sense, overall strategy seems wrote in the spring of 2011. “Iraq is and the Sunnis will not be able to to be lacking, creating an image proof that transition from a dictatorial do better. However, the failure of www.besacenter.org Islamism will have one important on Damascus reverberates in Tehran. difference from the failure of the The entire political structure that Iran previous ‘isms’ like socialism or pan- built in Syria is in danger of collapse, Arabism. Ordinary Arabs had no Dr. Dany endangering the logistical base for deep personal stake in socialism or Shoham: Hizballah, Hamas and Palestinian nationalism; they could be dropped “Watch Islamic Jihad.” with relatively little pain. But most the Arabs have a strong attachment to chemical- “In any case, Israel must be prepared Islam. While Islamism can be and biological for possible deterioration of the should be sharply distinguished from weapons situation into regional war, and the Islam, the failure of Islamism will be stocks” world must be prepared to take over very difficult for Muslims to absorb Syria's stores of non-conventional and to live with.” weapons so that they don’t fall into the hands of Hizballah or Islamic increased essentiality and usability. Jihad.” This would become especially true if Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons. Prof. Hillel Frisch of the BESA Dr. Then it might feel more secure to Center says that Egypt, not Syria, Jonathan employ sub-nuclear weapons of mass is the key country to watch. “The Rynhold: destruction such as CBW.” Islamists and the military-backed secularists are fighting over the shape “Pragmatic Dr. Mordechai Kedar of the BESA of Egypt’s future constitution. While Islamists 4 are not Center predicts the disintegration the former seemingly holds the necessarily of Syria. “One year from now, Syria majority public vote, the latter holds moderate” could easily be sundered into five the fire power, thus evening out the independent states: Alawite in the political battlefield. But if the chasm west, Kurdish in the northeast, Druze between these two opposing camps in the south, Bedouin in the east, with continues to widen, all-out civil war “Regarding the rise of Islamist forces Aleppo a separate city-state. For us, could erupt. In essence, Egypt's soul in Egypt and perhaps in Syria, there is this is preferable to the continuation and identity is at stake.” a tendency in the West to argue they of the Assad regime, which has will be ‘pragmatic,’” says BESA Center partnered with Iran, North Korea “The major restraining factor on associate Dr. Jonathan Rynhold. and Hizballah. Another scenario is both sides is Egypt’s economic “But it is important in this contest that Turkey occupies much of Syria predicament. Unlike Islamic Iran, to remember that even if some are and facilitates the rise to power of an which reaps $70 billion annually more pragmatic than others, none Islamic regime.” from oil and gas that it can sell under of these Islamists are moderate. This almost all political conditions, Egypt is especially apparent with regard is an ecologically fragile state of 80 to Israel, whose destruction they million people, characterized by an support. Pragmatism is a function economy with great international of power and responsibility, but the exposure. Its economic prospects, ideological commitment to radical therefore, are highly dependent ideals remains.” on maintaining good political and economic relations with the US “We need to remember that Egypt, Dr. Mordechai and EU and on the maintenance Syria and Iran all have arsenals of Kedar: of regional stability. These factors chemical and biological weapons “Beware Syrian are critical to its tourism industry, (CBW). Iran probably has radiological disintegration” which makes up 12 percent of its weapons as well,” says BESA Center GDP. They are similarly vital in expert Dr. Dany Shoham. While the preserving revenues from the Suez likelihood of employing these weapons Canal, expanding industrial exports, is low, new regimes in Egypt and Syria “Of course, both Saudi Arabia and and securing international aid. The could be tempted to view CBW as Israel see the potential fall of Assad as willingness of the West to deal with strategic military assets of somewhat a blow to the Iranians. The pressure the future regime will be highly

www.besacenter.org forced to back off from constant confrontation with Israel, following NEW Israel’s successful 2010 operation against Hamas in Gaza. Prosperity PUBLICATION in the West Bank also has dimmed Prof. Hillel Hamas’ glow.” Frisch: “Egypt is “Now, of course, Hamas may be losing the regional its Syrian base of operations. In Qatar The 2011 Arab linchpin” or Turkey – two possible places of Uprisings and refuge for Hamas leadership – the organization will likely be subject to Israel’s National enhanced penetration by Israeli and dependent on the Egyptian military's western intelligence agencies.” Security autonomy and power in the future regime. Thus, the Islamists might balk The BESA Center will soon publish by Prof. Efraim Inbar at an open confrontation and will be a major monograph supported by forced into compromise with the the Tikvah Fund. This publication The first part of this February 2012 military.” will evaluate the rapidly changing publication surveys the main elements Middle East and make policy of the changing strategic landscape On the Palestinian front, Frisch notes recommendations for Israel and around Israel: the weakening of the growing weakness of Hamas. Western countries. Arab states; changes in the balance “Ostensibly, the upheavals in the of regional power, as the radical 5 Arab world are good news to the anti-American forces in the region Palestinians in general, and to Hamas appear to be gaining greater especially. The Egyptian Muslim influence; and what appears to be Brotherhood is a sister organization an American retreat from the to Hamas. Syria could fall into the Middle East. The second part hands of the Brotherhood as well. of the study focuses on how Nevertheless, Hamas is losing steam these elements affect Israel’s and direction.” national security. Of foremost concern are the heightened “First, the Palestinian issue has risks of rapid change and lost some of its salience; the Arab strategic surprises, greater revolutions are a much bigger story. uncertainty regarding Second, Hamas shares the blame the behavior of leaders amongst its constituents for splitting in neighboring states, the Palestinian people into two increased terrorist areas governed by two Palestinian activity, reduced governments. Third, Hamas has been deterrence, growing regional isolation, emerging threats in the eastern Mediterranean, and a continuous Iranian nuclear challenge. The third part discusses ways in which Israel must prepare itself to meet the challenges stemming from the deteriorating security environment. These include increases in defense outlays for expanding Israel’s standing army, additional investments in missile defense, and research and development. In addition, Israel must insist on defensible borders, seek out new regional allies, and maintain its special relationship with the US. www.besacenter.org FROM THE EDITOR Strategic Prescience

Western Sahara

Mauritania BESA Center associates are leading the way forward with new strategic thinking for turbulent Mideast times

Israel is rethinking its overall security by another provocative BESA study surveyed a range of scenarios that needs in the wake of the revolutions by Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland could result in the cancellation of the underway across the Arab Middle entitled Regional Alternatives to the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Eilam East. Islamists seem to be on the Two-State Solution. suggested ways in which Israel needed march – in Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, to prepare for such a possibility. At Turkey, Tunisia and Syria. Iran Diplomats and policymakers in Israel the time, the Egyptians howled about 6 continues to advance towards nuclear and overseas are now going back to Israeli chutzpa in publishing the study weapons. Israeli Prime Minister study these illuminating publications, while Israeli officialdom sought to Benjamin Netanyahu has called this in search of new thinking that might bury it. an "Islamic, anti-Western, anti-liberal, take us beyond the Palestinian-Israeli anti-Israeli, undemocratic wave." stalemate. Just before he died in September 2010, Prof. Joseph Kostiner Consistently ahead of the curve In 2006, Prof. Efraim Karsh (a published the only study I know with new strategic thinking for these member of the Center’s International questioning the security and stability turbulent times are the experts of Academic Advisory Board) published of the Gulf Cooperation Council the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic a little-noticed BESA Center study states. Now look what is happening in Studies. Center associates have called The Tragedy of Arab Imperialism. Bahrain. conducted over-the-horizon research His discerning prediction was that that puts their analyses ahead of the Arab pan-nationalism and pack. The materials published by the nationalist dictatorship The BESA Center: Always BESA Center have not always been structures were paper politically correct or appreciated thin and bound to fail. He prescient and ahead of the game; at the time by other experts or also foresaw the radical brutally honest in its evaluations. diplomats. Now, however, people are Islamist menace lurking paying closer attention. underneath. "Islam remains the strongest identity framework in Since 2007, Arrow missile project The Oslo process for comprehensive Egyptian society in particular and in director Uzi Rubin has published and lasting peace with the Palestinians Arab society generally," Karsh wrote. through the BESA Center a series – "two states for two peoples" – has "The Arab national dictatorships that of in-depth studies analyzing come to a dead end. It is still hard for were layered over this basic Islamic Hamas and Hizballah rocket and politicians to admit this. But more identity for the past 80 years are but missile capabilities and arguing for a than three years ago BESA Center a thin veneer of repression.” significant Israeli anti-missile defense director Prof. Efraim Inbar declared system for the Gaza perimeter and the two-state paradigm passé. He In 2009, Dr. Ehud Eilam published an northern Israel. bucked conventional wisdom and almost prophetic study on instability penned the first comprehensive study in the Egypt-Israel relationship. He Unfortunately, the IDF and Defense tracking the Rise and Demise of the questioned Mubarak's plan to anoint Ministry joined the game very late Two-State Solution. This was followed his son Gamal as his successor and with the rushed and limited (albeit

www.besacenter.org Syria

Lebanon Iraq Morocco Tunisia Jordan Kuwait

Bahrain

Oman Algeria Saudi Arabia Libya Egypt

Mauritania

Yemen Sudan

Yemen

Revolution Civil war Sustained civil disorder and governmental changes Protests and governmental changes Major protests Minor protests Protests outside the Arab world 7

successful) development of the Iron to put an end to the notion of Israeli Dome system. Rubin's most recent abandonment of the Golan once and BESA Center study, which evaluates for all, Prof. Inbar has just published Iron Dome, clearly shows how the a detailed study which delineates the defense establishment and political strategic, legal, moral and historical echelon had to be dragged kicking and justifications for permanent Israeli screaming into late development of sovereignty on the Golan. this important defense system. Lastly, one area that has received Since 2003, the BESA Center also little attention is the eastern has been the major think-tank Mediterranean basin, where elements tracking and evaluating Turkey's of radical Islam could gain control. strategic partnership with Israel – Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and and its subsequent denouement. Turkey show Islamist leanings, leaving Professors Inbar and Nachmani Israel, Greece and Cyprus as the were among the first to warn about only Western allies. There are also emerging hostile Islamist sentiments major natural gas deposits in the area in the foreign policy of Erdogan and to protect and fight over. Two new Davutoglu, and they continue to write BESA Center papers by Efraim Inbar prodigiously on this topic. and Alexander Murinson focus on the potential conflicts over energy The Golan Heights represents high resources in the region. strategic and moral ground for Israel, but Israel has been afraid to say The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic David M. Weinberg this for years, instead holding out Studies: Always prescient and ahead Editor, The BESA Bulletin the possibility of a withdrawal from of the game; brutally honest in its and BESA Center Director of Public Affairs the Golan in the context of a peace evaluations; worth following. agreement with Damascus. Given what is happening in Syria today, what a folly that might have been. In order

www.besacenter.org The General Avraham Rotem Memorial Conference Confronting the Iranian Nuclear Threat

A military strike on Iran will be less painful than the cost of living with an Iranian nuclear weapons threat – was the consensus at a November

Maj. Gen. (res.) Danny Yatom 2011 security conference.

"As steep as the price for hitting Iran strike against Iran, but added that The world does not have much time 8 may be, a military strike on Iran will be Israel's response would be "so painful left to act on Iran, Yatom less painful than the cost of living with and crushing that rockets will come warned, adding, "There is an evaluation an Iranian nuclear weapons threat," to an end. Civilian facilities and that they have crossed the red line. argued former Mossad head Maj. Gen. infrastructure in Lebanon and Gaza will They have the knowledge to make the (res.) Danny Yatom at a November have to be hit. Innocent civilians could bomb. All that is needed now is the 2011 BESA Center conference on Israel's new strategic environment. "The backlash from a strike on Iran's nuclear sites will not be as bad for Israel as will an Iran armed with nuclear weapons," he said. "I don't think that those predicting apocalyptic repercussions of a strike on Tehran are correct, and even if they are, Israel can't afford to wonder if Tehran will go crazy and bomb us."

Yatom's position was diametrically opposed to that of former Mossad head Meir Dagan, who sparked significant controversy this year by stating that an attack on Iran would be a foolish move that would lead to a war with an unknown outcome.

“It is impossible to stake the nation's security on predictions by those who General Rotem’s photo overlooks Shmuel Sandler, Uzi Dayan, Tiki Rotem, claim a nuclear Iran can be deterred Danny Yatom and Efraim Inbar at the memorial conference. and that the Iranian regime would not launch a nuclear attack,” Yatom added. He acknowledged that rocket attacks be hurt. But we will have to deliver a decision to do it.... The world has a would likely ensue from Lebanon and crushing blow so that the barrage of year in which to halt the Iranian nuclear Gaza following a Western or Israeli rockets against us will not continue." weapons program, probably less."

www.besacenter.org Yatom also doubted that sanctions or covert operations could stop the 9 Iranians. "We have only two options: to let Iran get the bomb, or to use military force against their military nuclear program. I think that force will have to be used. But I don't think Israel should lead. This is, after all, a global problem.... Nevertheless, should the world stand on the sidelines, Israel will be fully entitled to use its natural right to self-defense. To us, the Iranian nuclear weapons program is an existential threat."

Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan, former The late general Maj. Gen. head of IDF military intelligence and Avraham Rotem, who was a BESA national security advisor to Prime Center senior research associate Minister , agreed with Yatom that Iran's nuclear weapons the smartest and most capable people program must be halted, but felt that I ever met. He was a very demanding sanctions which embargoed Iranian officer and he had a tremendous oil and gas and which outlawed influence on me. Rotem was outspoken transactions with the Iranian National and intellectually fearless – a true Bank could dissuade the Iranians from ‘General,’” he said. proceeding. "While not an existential threat, Tehran's nuclear program is an The conference also hosted a lengthy unacceptable threat," he said. discussion (summarized elsewhere in the newsletter) on the Arab upheavals, The conference was held in memory of involving professors Ben-Dor, Karsh, Maj. Gen. Avraham Rotem, who was Frisch, Gilboa, Rynhold and Inbar. a central member of the BESA Center research team. Yatom, having served under Rotem, eulogized him as “one of

www.besacenter.org Conference Educating the Next Generation of IDF Officers

In cooperation with the IDF Tactical Command College, the BESA Center held a conference last fall on “Military Academies and the Military Profession: Israel in Comparative Perspective.” Should IDF officers study more military history and theory and who should be teaching them?

The US has military academies at scope of what they must know keeps role on the 21st-century battlefield, 10 West Point and Annapolis. The expanding. They must achieve mastery where technological prowess can be British put their officers through over ever more complicated machines more relevant than history or tactical Sandhurst. But how will the Israeli of war. Doctrine must be constantly studies? Defense Forces (IDF), a citizen updated and disseminated, especially army, train its officers for the 21st to reservists. Though the IDF IDF Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, head of century? Several hundred IDF officers remains primarily a people's army, the the Northern Command and a plain- – scores of freshly-minted lieutenants unremitting threats to the country spoken rising military star, said the plus a sprinkling of top brass – have long demanded professional qualities he looks for in an officer packed this September 2011 BESA organization. are creative thinking, meticulous Center conference to hear ranking planning, and the ability to instill commanders and scholars address this In contrast with the US model, in morale through personal example. issue. which officers train at dedicated For IDF Ground Forces Commander military institutions and graduate with Maj. Gen. Sami Turgeman, the key college degrees, IDF officers usually to an officer's competence is in not start their careers straight out of just learning classroom doctrine high school as conscripted privates. but executing it under actual field The road leading to a commission in the Israeli military typically begins when a private is identified as having leadership potential or some other skill and is invited to make a further service commitment by enrolling in officer candidate school – which lasts for less than six months. Cadets, no matter what their path to a commission, must go elsewhere for their undergraduate degrees and do IDF Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, head of the so in fragmented fashion. Northern Command As the IDF seeks to professionalize its Israeli warriors have little time for officer training, what qualities should the extended breaks needed for a fine officer possess? Does character IDF Ground Forces Commander an ideal career education, but the and theoretical knowledge still play a Maj. Gen. Sami Turgeman www.besacenter.org conditions: "Even when you know Col. (ret.) Dr. Hanan Shay of Ashkelon straightforward training for the role; what needs to be done, applying it is Academic College and Bar-Ilan this is an expertise developed mostly the hard part." He emphasized that University agreed with Kober. Shay through self-education. Cohen, who good officers must be good builders. has been a key figure in moving the was Counselor to the US State They know that they have to work IDF into broader academic education Department under Secretary of State 365 days a year to prepare their for its officers and pioneered a reform Condoleezza Rice, noted that "advice forces for war and that continuing in officer education over a decade is a dangerous gift even when given military education is essential. ago. “IDF officers need to know how from the wise to the wise." to think,” Shay said, “not only how to Turgeman said that he would act lead.” Cohen explained that wars are to maintain and protect the army's constantly and rapidly evolving training budget from any budget cuts. situations in which officer-advisors need to ask themselves and others, BESA Center senior research "What are we trying to do?" "What associate Prof. Stuart Cohen, Israel’s are our priorities?" "Why do we top expert on civil-military relations think this will succeed?" "What else is and the changing nature of the IDF, happening in the political and security organized the conference together environment?" "How will we define with IDF Tactical Command College victory?" Most of the time, they will and its commander Col. Gideon not get satisfactory answers, he said, Sharav. Cohen posed a series of which is precisely why they must ask questions: Where should IDF the questions again and again. officers be studying – at universities or in military colleges? Who should Prof. Christopher Coker 11 be teaching them – professors or tacticians? What should they be studying? Prof. Christopher Coker of the London School of Economics Prof. Avi Kober, a BESA research challenged the military audience to associate and former editor of the consider how waging war at computer IDF's military and strategic affairs consoles – for example, sending journal, argued that officers need to remotely-piloted drone aircraft study much more military history on targeted killing missions – might and theory and read military classics affect their ethos as combatants. including the writings of Clausewitz, “Cyber warfare may remove Liddlehart, Jomini and others. He soldiers from immediate danger, Prof. Eliot Cohen attributed the failures of Israel’s 2006 but they must struggle not to let campaign against Hizballah in part to technology diminish their humanity. the fact that IDF officers at that time The precision of machines cannot Also addressing the conference were had no background in broader military substitute for instilling values. Human Dr. Eitan Shamir (BESA Center and thinking. behavior is invariably inconsistent Ben-Gurion U.); Col. Prof. Cindy and dependent on circumstances, Jebb (US Military Academy at West so individual character-building and Point); Prof. Alon Kadish (Hebrew collective esprit de corps continue to U. and Head of the IDF History matter.” Department); Dr. Yossi Hochbaum (IDF General Staff Training Division); Prof. Eliot Cohen of the School Dr. Eado Hecht (IDF Command and for Advanced International Studies Staff College); Col. Dr. Meir Finkel at Johns Hopkins University (and (Head of Concept Development and a member of the BESA Center’s Doctrine Department, IDF Ground international academic advisory Forces); Maj. Dr. Uzi Ben-Shalom (IDF board) said that officers have Ground Forces College); Dr. Yuval to consider the larger issue of Tsur (Sapir College); and Maj. Yael military-civilian relations. Officers Bareket (IDF General Staff Training have to know how to give advice Division). Prof. Stuart Cohen to politicians, but there is no www.besacenter.org Conference The Legal Dimension of National Security

Supreme Court Justice Elyakim Rubinstein headlined a BESA Center conference in December 2011 that marked the publication of an important book by Amichai Cohen and Stuart Cohen, Israel's National Security Law: Political Dynamics and Historical Development.

How did Israeli national security military and civilian/political officials. military relations; Prof. Oren Gross 12 become so dominated by lawyers Amichai Cohen analyzed the (U. of Minnesota) on the behavior and the Supreme Court? After all, processes by which international of democracies in emergency David Ben-Gurion would never have law has become Israeli law, and security situations; Prof. Daphna dreamed of court intervention in the limitations this places on IDF Barak-Erez (Tel Aviv U.; newly- military issues. Yet today, the Israeli activities. appointed Supreme Court Justice) courts and international legal actors on distributive justice and national intervene in everything from army Also addressing the conference were security; Prof. Gad Barzilai (U. of tactics and targeting calculations to Dr. Yehuda Ben Meir (INSS) on civil- Washington and Haifa) on national the demarcation of security fences security law; and Prof. and the tonnage of humanitarian Avi Bell (Bar-Ilan U.) on supply convoys even in the midst of ‘lawfare’ against Israel. military operations. Justice Elyakim Rubinstein of the Israeli Supreme A new book by Prof. Stuart Cohen Court gave the keynote of the BESA Center and his son Prof. address, in which he Amichai Cohen of Ono Academic related at length to the College takes a close look at these “necessity, value and issues. The BESA Center held a one- wisdom” of Supreme Court day conference in December 2011 to intervention in Israeli mark the publication and to analyze military and intelligence the issues arising from this pioneering matters, including the study of what has become a central way in which the IDF dimension in Israel's national security administers the post- thinking. 1967 territories. He said that court involvement in Opening the conference, Stuart national security decision- Cohen argued that the Israeli making had become a Supreme Court has become “critical necessity” and overactive with regards to military that this was good for the human rights matters, yet underactive military as well as Israeli Book authors, the father-son duo, or insufficiently active with regards Dr. Amichai Cohen (left) and Prof. Stuart Cohen. democracy. to the division of powers between

www.besacenter.org In particular, Rubinstein pointed to Rubinstein repeatedly referred to the changes in the structure and Supreme Court oversight of military 13 operations of the General Security operations as a “cleansing filter” Services (or ‘Shin Bet’) that had that encourages careful thinking been mandated by the Supreme and self-criticism in the army. “Not Court following scandals that rocked every military commander’s plan the security agency in the 1990s. is sacrosanct. Human dignity is as important a value as personal and national security,” he said. “Often our role as Supreme Court judges is simply to force the military into dialogue, from which more reasonable decisions emerge without the court having to formally rule. In a way, Justice Elyakim Rubinstein of we act as babysitters for Israeli the Israeli Supreme Court democracy. Our judicial review ensures adherence to Israeli and international law.”

Justice Rubinstein also related to conservative criticism of Supreme Court activism. “I reject the wild political attacks on the court that Prof. Daphna Barak-Erez of Tel Aviv U were heard in the winter session of (newly appointed to the Supreme Court) the Knesset. Of course, the court isn’t immune from criticism. But in “We successfully imposed greater my opinion, the court has acted with transparency and accountability on balance and honesty – in the civil, the Shin Bet, and I think that the criminal, diplomatic and security Mossad (Israel’s foreign intelligence fields. We have been cautious, not agency) is overdue for such changes as imperialistic.” well,” he said.

www.besacenter.org New BESA Center Study Myths and Facts in Israeli-Palestinian Water Conflict

This important new study by Prof. Haim Gvirtzman, based on previously classified data, refutes Palestinian claims that Israel is denying West Bank Palestinians water rights negotiated under the Oslo Accords. The study also proposes a practical plan for Israeli- Palestinian water sharing in the future.

Prof. Haim Gvirtzman

In this BESA Center study, hydrologist villages due to the Israeli occupation Gvirtzman shows that the large 14 Prof. Haim Gvirtzman of the Institute and it cites international law in support difference in water usage that existed of Earth Sciences at the Hebrew of its claims. These claims amount to in 1967, when the administration University examines Palestinian water more than 700 million cubic meters of Judea and Samaria was handed claims against Israel by presenting of water per year, including rights over from Jordan to Israel, has been detailed information about water over the groundwater reservoir of reduced over the last 40 years and is supply systems presently serving the Mountain Aquifer, the Gaza Strip now negligible. As well, the per capita Israelis and Palestinians. He also Coastal Aquifer and the Jordan River. domestic water consumption of the discusses international law and shows These demands amount to more than Palestinians is significantly higher than that the Palestinians have little basis 50 percent of the total natural water the minimum human needs defined by for their water demands. available between the Mediterranean the World Health Organization. Sea and the Jordan River. Gvirtzman relies on previously In contrast, the Palestinians have classified data, recently released But contrary to Palestinian claims, violated their part of the agreement for publication by the Israeli Water Gvirtzman demonstrates that Israel by drilling over 250 unauthorized Authority – 15 years after the has fulfilled all of its obligations wells, which draw about 15 MCM a signing of the Israeli-Palestinian according to the agreements it signed year of water, and connecting these Interim Agreement. The data shows in 1995 with the Palestinian Authority, pirate wells to its electricity grid. that currently there is almost no and in fact has exceeded them. The Moreover, the PA has illegally and difference in per-capita consumption PA currently consumes 200 MCM surreptitiously connected itself in of natural water between Israelis and of water every year (with Israel many places to the water lines of Palestinians. providing about 50 MCM of this) – Israel's Mekorot National Water which, under the accords, is more Company – stealing Israel's water. Nevertheless, the Palestinian than Israel it supposed to provide a Authority claims that it suffers from full-fledged Palestinian state under a Palestinian famers also routinely water shortages in its towns and final settlement arrangement! overwater their crops through old-

www.besacenter.org signed water agreement overrules all other parameters. Second, Israel's historical possession of the Mountain Aquifer was established in the 1940s. Third, the Palestinians should not exploit groundwater from the Western Aquifer, which is fully utilized by Israel, before The Threat of first exploiting groundwater from Agro-Terrorism the non-utilized Eastern Aquifer. Finally, the Palestinians should be preventing leaks in domestic Prof. Gvirtzman’s study on water issues pipelines, implementing conservative was first presented as part of a fall irrigation techniques, and reusing 2011 BESA Center conference on the sewage water as irrigation. “Threat of Agro-Terrorism,” held in cooperation with the Counter Agro- The fact that the Palestinians have Terrorism Research Center (CATRC) fashioned, wasteful flooding taken none of these steps and of Israel. Col. (res.) Gil Erez and Saar methods. Gvirtzman says that at have not adopted any sustainable Dickman of CATRC lectured on the least one-third of the water being development practices precludes significance of the threat, along with pumped out of the ground by the their demands for additional water the BESA Center’s Dr. Dany Shoham. Palestinians (again, in violation from Israel, writes Gvirtzman. They emphasized the ease with which 15 of their accords with Israel) is food chains can be contaminated and wasted through leakage and Israel believes that the water the need for an international system for mismanagement. No recycling of issue could be transformed from a profiling the biological-security risk of water takes place and no treated source of controversy and tension major food shipments. water is used for agriculture. to a source of understanding and cooperation. Gvirtzman’s study In fact, 95 percent of the 56 million suggests a plan that can efficiently cubic meters of sewage produced and quickly solve the current and by the Palestinians each year is not future water shortages on both treated at all. Only one sewage plant sides. The plan, based on sustainable has been built in the West Bank in development and advanced the last 15 years, despite there being technologies, would supply the a $500 million international donor sufficient quantity of water needed fund available for this purpose. “The at least until 2030 and still leave Palestinians refuse to build sewage some reserves. treatment plants,” Gvirtzman says. “The PA is neither judicious nor Prof. Gvirtzman’s BESA Center neighborly in its water usage and study has been translated into sewage management.” French and German, and been Saar Dickman of CATRC circulated globally by the Israel Gvirtzman further shows that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Palestinians have little basis for Ministry of National Infrastructures. their water demands according to international legal norms. First, the

www.besacenter.org New BESA Center Study Why Israel Must Maintain Control of the Golan Heights

Expectations of the international community for peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors are almost universally based on the “Land for Peace” formula, which in the Israeli- Syrian context links withdrawal from the strategic Golan Heights to a peace agreement. However, this formula does not serve Israel’s interests, according to Prof. Efraim Inbar’s new BESA Center study. Moreover, Israel has greater moral and historical rights to the Golan than does Syria, he says. Prof. Efraim Inbar

This major new study, replete with region, including 16 newly-commissioned maps, argues questions that the status quo situation between about the Israel and Syria with regards to the foreign policies Golan Heights is both sustainable and of Israel’s preferable to any alternative. Even neighbors, without taking into consideration similarly current political volatility in the region, prescribe retaining the Golan and maintaining against taking secure borders is more important any significant than a peace treaty, says author, Prof. security risks Efraim Inbar, director of the BESA by ceding the Center. Golan to Syria.”

“Designing borders in accordance Inbar also with current but changing military argues that technology and transient political Israel should circumstances is strategically foolish,” augment its writes Inbar. “Thus the Golan plateau claims for is simply Israel’s best defense against defensible potential Syrian aggression. Moreover, borders on the expected political returns for the Golan Israel from a peace treaty with Syria Heights with are meager. Syria is unlikely to align normative, legal itself with pro-Western Arab states and historic and abandon its Islamic regional a peace treaty with Syria in the arguments. alliances. Moreover, Syria has little to foreseeable future, Israel should insist “A return to the 1967 border would offer Israel in economic or cultural on a new paradigm, ‘Peace for Peace,’ be morally repugnant because it terms. This calculus is not affected by based on the principle of defensible implies that the aggressor of 1967, the prospects of a change in Syria's borders. The demand for secure Syria, should not pay any price for leadership.” borders seems reasonable and is its flagrant violation of international rooted in international resolutions norms. Israel should also emphasize its “Since retaining the Golan is more such as UNSC Resolution 242. The historic rights to this piece of territory important for Israel than reaching political unrest and volatility in the and point out that these claims were www.besacenter.org New BESA Center Study The Strategic and Economic Role of Israeli Defense Industries

accepted in the 20th century BESA Center senior in internationally recognized research associate documents. It should use these Dr. Yaacov Lifshitz historical and legal arguments to has served as the bolster its claim of sovereignty over director general the Golan Heights.” of the Israel Ministry of Finance and chief economist of the Israel “Israel must regain the moral high Ministry of Defense. This unique study (February ground in order to show that it 2012, Hebrew) draws on his unparalleled and deep is demanding land that is part of familiarity with the interface between the military and its historic patrimony – not land Israel’s defense industries. Lifshitz finds that Israeli that was conquered by force. A arms and defense technology industries have become discourse rooted in normative, so export-oriented that they are failing to sufficiently historic and legal considerations meet the needs of the . Lifshitz is important in this quest. Such a calls for clear Israeli government policy that would discourse will buttress realpolitik redefine the balance between the defense industry’s imperatives that dictate Israeli Dr. Yaacov Lifshitz dependence on export sales and its critical role in control of the Golan Heights.” servicing the R&D and equipment needs of the IDF.

The first part of the study sums up the strategic advantages of Israel’s control over the Golan Diplomatic 17 Heights, which would be forfeited by a withdrawal from this area. Briefing The second part explores the limited value to Israel of a peace Several dozen ambassadors treaty with Syria, emphasizing resident in Israel participated that the security disadvantages of in the BESA Center’s annual transferring the Golan Heights to security briefing for diplomats. Syria in the framework of a peace Prof. Yehezkel Dror (author of treaty far outweigh the limited the BESA Center book Israeli Statecraft: National Security political advantages. The third part Challenges and Responses) and analyzes the long-term viability of Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan the status quo and suggests that (former chairman of the Israel Israeli military superiority and National Security Council) Uzi Dayan (left) and Yehezkel Dror (right) determination to keep the Golan addressed the ambassadors. with BIU Rector Prof. Haim Teitlebaum Heights is important in deterring the Alawite regime or possible successor regimes in Damascus from challenging the status quo.

The fourth part of the study surveys the political history of the Golan Heights and demonstrates that Israel has a legitimate historical claim over this territory. The fifth part examines the legal status of this disputed territory and indicates that Israel has a valid legal claim to the plateau. The concluding section of the study offers policy recommendations. BESA PERSPECTIVES PAPERS

145 146 147 Halting the Egyptian Get Tough with Turkey Empty Words: Saudi Drift Blustering and US-Saudi Prof. Efraim Inbar Realities Jagdish N. Singh Turkish demands are unreasonable Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum Developments in post-Mubarak Egypt and an apology will not change the are beginning to mirror the process anti-Israeli policy of ana. increasingly The Saudis are all bark and no bite. of Islamization that took place in authoritarian and Islamist Turkey. Despite occasional public “outrage” Iran following the 1979 revolution. Israel’s reluctance to criticize from Saudi officials about US policy The Muslim Brotherhood is gaining Erdogan’s government is construed as regarding the Arab unrest, Israel, support, while progressive forces – weakness and Jerusalem should take Iraq, Iran, or Afghanistan, Riyadh and those that hoped to bring democracy off its gloves in dealing with Ankara. Washington are still very distant from to Egypt – have fallen silent. the parting of ways threatened by some Saudi officials.

148 149 150 After September Comes Needed: A Leader in the two Steps Forward, 18 October White House One Step Back: Women's Suffrage in Saudi Arabia Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Eytan Gilboa Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum The UN is not going to bring The lack of leadership and clear policy the Palestinians closer to the principles evinced by the Obama King Abdullah says that women will be establishment of a state. It is a morally White House have severely weakened appointed to the Consultative Council bankrupt institution, totally ineffective America's position in the Middle East, and be allowed to vote and run for in curing the dysfunctional Palestinian leaving a void to be filled by hostile municipal councils. Is this a significant national movement. regional powers such as Iran. advancement for Saudi women's rights, or just another instance of the kingdom’s "two steps forward, one step back" reform policy?

151 152 153 Iron Dome in Action: A Why the Schalit Decision Saudi Succession and Preliminary Evaluation Makes Military Sense Stability Uzi Rubin Prof. Stuart A. Cohen Dr. Joshua Teitelbaum The Iron Dome missile defense The Schalit prisoner exchange was a The process of balancing and system has succeeded in saving lives rational and sensible recognition of the satisfying Saudi royal factions and reducing damages, thus providing need to reaffirm society's commitment depends on patience and more flexibility to the political to the welfare of its soldiers. The conservatism within royal circles. leadership for containing the fighting obligation of the state is even more It also requires quiet in the streets with the Hamas government in Gaza. pronounced in Israel’s case, as the IDF of Riyadh and Jedda. Thus far, there is a conscript army, in which far from are no signs of the so-called ‘Arab all draft-age youngsters in fact serve. Spring’ spreading to Saudi Arabia.

www.besacenter.org 154 155 156 The IAEA Report on Egypt’s Constitutional The Threats in the Eastern Tehran’s Nuclear Program: Crisis: The Military versus Mediterranean Sea It's Time to Hit Iran the Islamists Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Hillel Frisch In the eastern Mediterranean basin A US strike on Iranian nuclear Who will shape Egypt's constitution elements of radical Islam could gain infrastructure is not only necessary, it – the Islamists or the military- control. In this region, Libya, Egypt, is also the only course of action that backed secularists? While the Lebanon, Syria and Turkey display can prevent the impending American former seemingly holds the majority Islamist tendencies, leaving Israel and retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan from public vote, the latter holds the fire Greece as the only Western allies. signaling the denouement of US clout power, thus evening out the political in the Middle East. battlefield.

157 158 159 Palestinians: Invented The Palestinians are Part Strategic Realignment People of the Old Arab Order and Energy Security in the 19 Eastern Mediterranean Prof. Michael Curtis Prof. Hillel Frisch Dr. Alexander Murinson Both historically and in contemporary The Palestinians are part of the old times, the Arabs living in the area now Arab order because time and time The recent discovery of substantial known as Palestine were regarded again they have aligned themselves natural gas fields in Israeli and both by outsiders and by their own with the worst dictators of the Arab Cypriot territorial waters challenge spokespeople as members of the world, and their own governments in Turkey’s claim as the central energy greater Arab population, without a the West Bank and Gaza are cut from hub for Europe. Greece, Israel separate or distinct identity. Today, the same cloth as the regimes of the and Cyprus should increase their however, it is clear that Palestinian old Arab order. strategic cooperation in order to nationalism has emerged and become counter Turkish hostility. a political factor.

160 161 162 The Iranian Nuclear Threat The Amman Talks: Missile Warfare: A Realistic to Israel: Legal Remedies Another Exercise in Futile Assessment and Remaining Options Diplomacy Haim Rosenberg Dr. Louis René Beres Prof. Efraim Inbar The threat to Israel of missile warfare Israel should not expect stable The recent Israeli-Palestinian "pre- is somewhat exaggerated and public coexistence with a nuclear Iran. negotiations" in Amman mark another discourse on this issue should reflect Instead, it must enhance active ineffectual endeavor to bridge the realistic assessments. Missile attacks defense, improve nuclear wide gap between the two sides. would be able to inflict only limited deterrence and target selected physical damage on Israel. Iranian infrastructures.

www.besacenter.org Strategic Outreach

to Greece, India The BESA Center and Korea The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University seeks to contribute to the Continuing a tradition that dates back more advancement of Middle East peace and security by conducting policy-relevant research on than a decade, BESA Center associates strategic subjects, particularly as they relate to participated in strategic dialogues this past the national security and foreign policy of Israel. Founded by Thomas O. Hecht, a Canadian Jewish winter with colleagues at the Indian Institute community leader, the Center is a non-partisan and for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) in independent institute dedicated to the memory of New Delhi; with South Korean colleagues at the late Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin and the Sejong Institute; with Greek colleagues the late Egyptian president Anwar Sadat. from the Department of International and European Studies at the University of Piraeus International Advisory Board in Greece. Talks focused on missile and naval Thomas O. Hecht Ph.D., Founder and Chairman defense, intelligence cooperation, nuclear Saul Koschitzky, Vice Chairman Prof. Moshe Arens, Marion Hecht, Robert Hecht, Hon. challenges, terrorism, the Arab upheavals and Shlomo Hillel, Sir Robert Rhodes James, Sen. Joseph other issues of shared concern. I. Lieberman, Mr. Robert K. Lifton, Maj. Gen. (res.) Daniel Matt, Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, Maj. Gen. (res.) Ori Orr, Mr. Seymour D. Reich, Amb. Meir Rosenne, Greg Rosshandler, Hon. Yitzhak Shamir, Amb. Zalman Shoval, Amb. Norman Spector, Dr. Adolphe Steg, Mr. Muzi Wertheim.

International Academic Advisory Board Prof. Desmond Ball, Australian National University Prof. Ian Beckett, University of Northampton Prof. Eliot Cohen, SAIS, Johns Hopkins University Air Commodore (ret.) Jasjit Singh, Centre for Strategic and International Studies Prof. Irwin Cotler, McGill University Prof. Steven R. David, Johns Hopkins University Prof. Yehezkel Dror, Hebrew University Prof. Lawrence Freedman, King’s College London Prof. Patrick James, University of Southern California Prof. Efraim Karsh, King’s College London Prof. Robert J. Lieber, Georgetown University Prof. Barry Posen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Executive Council Prof. Eytan Gilboa (chairman), Prof. Elisha Haas, Dr. Thomas O. Hecht, Prof. Efraim Inbar, Prof. Moshe Kaveh, Prof. Daniel Levy, Prof. Zmira Mevorach, Prof. Amikam Nachmani, Prof. Chaim Teitelbaum

Center Director Prof. Efraim Inbar Professors Inbar, Gilboa and Rubin with South Korean colleagues at military intelligence headquarters in Seoul. Director of Public Affairs and Bulletin Editor David M. Weinberg

Program Coordinator Hava Waxman Koen

NEW PUBLICATION Production Editor (English) Ilana Hart

Indo-Israeli Defense Production Editor (Hebrew) Beyad Halashon Communications / www.mesh.co.il Cooperation in the Alona Briner Rozenman Twenty-First Century This new publication by Efraim Inbar and Bar-Ilan University Alvite Singh Ningthoujam suggests that India Ramat Gan 52900 Israel and Israel step up their cooperation on Tel. 972-3-531-8959 counterterrorism measures and on the joint Fax 972-3-535-9195 development of defense systems. Israel and [email protected] India must enhance their political engagement www.besacenter.org as well, write the authors, since defense ties alone cannot bind a bilateral relationship. North American address: 5485 Pare St., Montreal Quebec Canada H4P 1P7 TEL: 514-735-1155 FAX: 514-735-3361

www.besacenter.org