Spring 2012 No.28 WHAT ARAB SPRING? BESA Center associates discuss the rapidly changing Middle East and its ramifications for Israeli and Western policy INSIDE New Thinking for New Mideast Times The Battle over Water Training IDF Officers Keeping the Golan Heights Stopping the Iranians What Arab Spring? BESA Center experts see an increasingly difficult security environment for Israel emerging from the Arab upheavals of the past year. The Center has launched a major research project to evaluate the rapidly changing Middle East and its implications for Israeli and Western policy. The policy recommendations will soon be published as a book, generously supported by the Tikvah Fund. BESA Center experts see an “At a time of such uncertainty, Israel 2 increasingly difficult security must preserve and secure its strategic environment for Israel – and for assets. This is not the time for Israel Western interests – emerging from to be taking territorial or other the Arab upheavals of the past year. A risks, since we don't know what is recent conference on "Israeli Security ahead. Israel must maintain defensible Prof. Gabi in a New Regional Environment" and borders, with strategic depth, and Ben-Dor: many subsequent in-house the ability to defend ourselves against “Did someone deliberations paint a gloomy picture of attack. In the Palestinian context, this say Arab the near-term future. means full demilitarization of areas democracy?” under their control. Israel must guard against and prevent the emergence of three hostile Palestinian states – in Jordan, in the West Bank and in "Democracy is not what emerged Gaza,” Gen. Dayan said. from the revolution against the Tsars of Russia 100 years ago, nor has Uzi Dayan: Dayan also called upon Israel to take democracy emerged in many CIS "Preserve the diplomatic initiative and advocate states that threw off the Communist Israel’s for Kurdish independence. "There are yoke. Thus there is no rational, strategic some 30 million Kurds in a clearly- logical or historical basis for assuming assets" defined region spread across four that democracy will result from the countries. They deserve statehood revolutions underway today in the no less than the Palestinians," he Arab world." declared. Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan, former Egypt has a decent chance at a long- national security advisor to the Israeli Prof. Gabi Ben-Dor of Haifa term march towards democracy, Prime Minister, told the November University, who spoke at the Ben-Dor said, but only if the military 2011 BESA Center conference that conference about Arab societies, maintains a degree of moderating upheavals in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, dismissed the notion that a surge control over the country and prevents Syria, Bahrain and elsewhere “prove of enthusiasm for Western-style the Islamists from exploiting the once again that the Arab-Israeli democracy lay behind the recent situation in order to wrest complete conflict is not the central problem in turmoil. "Who says that protests power. this region. The implications for Israel against dictatorship necessarily of this unrest are manifold,” he said. lead to democracy?" he asked. www.besacenter.org Prof. Efraim Karsh of the regime is a lengthy and bloody Philadelphia-based Middle East Forum process. Moreover, regimes with (and a member of the BESA Center deep societal attachments to Islam International Academic Advisory will not suddenly adhere to a liberal- Board) was more pessimistic. "Islam Prof. Eytan democratic ethos. We already see remains the strongest identity Gilboa: how free elections are being hijacked framework in Egyptian society “America is by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.” in particular, and in Arab society fumbling for generally," he said. "The Arab national responses” “It is not clear that Western powers, dictatorships that were layered over particularly the US, are aware of this basic Islamic identity for the past the possibility of losing the eastern 80 years were but a thin veneer of part of the Mediterranean Sea to repression. With the fall of these radical Islam or are preparing in any dictatorships, what remain are the of a confused and untrustworthy way to forestall such a scenario. core Islamic underpinnings of society, America," said Gilboa. Foolishly, they seem to believe that and these will now come to the the so-called Arab Spring heralds an fore. Consequently, no democratic The rise of Islamic groups and improved political environment and structures, processes or values are American indecision together create that Turkey represents 'moderate likely to emerge in the Arab world for a deteriorating security situation for Islam.' American naiveté and European many generations." Israel, according to BESA Center gullibility could become extremely director Prof. Efraim Inbar. "States costly in strategic terms." like Egypt are already losing control of their own territory, and Israel can expect increased cross-border attacks 3 and terrorism. The Turks may ignite a confrontation over energy in the Prof. Efraim eastern Mediterranean. Israel should Karsh: not be cutting its defense budget now. Dr. Max “Islam is the On the contrary, Israel should be Singer: strongest investing more in the military and in “Islamist identity the defense industries – so that we'll regimes framework in be ready for challenges five years or will fail” the region” more down the road." Panelists at the conference disagreed BESA Center senior research about Western reactions to the Arab associate Dr. Max Singer adds that upheavals. Prof. Hillel Frisch of the “it is certainly too soon to have any BESA Center argued that one could confidence in predictions about the discern the emergence of a clear Prof. Efraim outcome of the ‘Arab Spring,’ but American approach to the changes Inbar: the best bet, unfortunately, is that in the region – a policy construct “Israel should an Arab world experiment with that emphasizes the promotion of not cut its Islamism will cause great suffering democracy while underscoring the defense – and probably new totalitarianisms containment of the influence of Iran, budget” -- before it too comes to be seen as a Russia and China. failure and is eventually rejected by a new generation of Arabs.” Prof. Karsh and Prof. Eytan Gilboa disagreed. "America is fumbling “An Arab Middle East that bases for responses, reacting differently “The expectation of many in the itself on hard-core Islamist regimes in each case, without any obvious West for a rapid Arab transition to will fail mainly because a return to grand strategy," Karsh asserted. democracy reflects ignorance of the Islamic Sharia law and ancient Muslim "Though American responses to each social and political realities of North ways cannot work in today’s world. Middle Eastern state can individually Africa and the Middle East,” Inbar The Shiite example has failed in Iran make sense, overall strategy seems wrote in the spring of 2011. “Iraq is and the Sunnis will not be able to to be lacking, creating an image proof that transition from a dictatorial do better. However, the failure of www.besacenter.org Islamism will have one important on Damascus reverberates in Tehran. difference from the failure of the The entire political structure that Iran previous ‘isms’ like socialism or pan- built in Syria is in danger of collapse, Arabism. Ordinary Arabs had no Dr. Dany endangering the logistical base for deep personal stake in socialism or Shoham: Hizballah, Hamas and Palestinian nationalism; they could be dropped “Watch Islamic Jihad.” with relatively little pain. But most the Arabs have a strong attachment to chemical- “In any case, Israel must be prepared Islam. While Islamism can be and biological for possible deterioration of the should be sharply distinguished from weapons situation into regional war, and the Islam, the failure of Islamism will be stocks” world must be prepared to take over very difficult for Muslims to absorb Syria's stores of non-conventional and to live with.” weapons so that they don’t fall into the hands of Hizballah or Islamic increased essentiality and usability. Jihad.” This would become especially true if Iran were to obtain nuclear weapons. Prof. Hillel Frisch of the BESA Dr. Then it might feel more secure to Center says that Egypt, not Syria, Jonathan employ sub-nuclear weapons of mass is the key country to watch. “The Rynhold: destruction such as CBW.” Islamists and the military-backed secularists are fighting over the shape “Pragmatic Dr. Mordechai Kedar of the BESA of Egypt’s future constitution. While Islamists 4 are not Center predicts the disintegration the former seemingly holds the necessarily of Syria. “One year from now, Syria majority public vote, the latter holds moderate” could easily be sundered into five the fire power, thus evening out the independent states: Alawite in the political battlefield. But if the chasm west, Kurdish in the northeast, Druze between these two opposing camps in the south, Bedouin in the east, with continues to widen, all-out civil war “Regarding the rise of Islamist forces Aleppo a separate city-state. For us, could erupt. In essence, Egypt's soul in Egypt and perhaps in Syria, there is this is preferable to the continuation and identity is at stake.” a tendency in the West to argue they of the Assad regime, which has will be ‘pragmatic,’” says BESA Center partnered with Iran, North Korea “The major restraining factor on associate Dr. Jonathan Rynhold. and Hizballah. Another scenario is both sides is Egypt’s economic “But it is important in this contest that Turkey occupies much of Syria predicament. Unlike Islamic Iran, to remember that even if some are and facilitates the rise to power of an which reaps $70 billion annually more pragmatic than others, none Islamic regime.” from oil and gas that it can sell under of these Islamists are moderate. This almost all political conditions, Egypt is especially apparent with regard is an ecologically fragile state of 80 to Israel, whose destruction they million people, characterized by an support.