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Strategic Survey for Israel 2010 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Strategic Survey for Israel 2010 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Strategic Survey for Israel 2010 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Institute for National Security Studies The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is, first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organization and individuals that support its research. Strategic Survey for Israel 2010 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURcITY STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE bd CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz and Yael Bieber Cover design: Michal Semo-Kovetz Printing: Kedem Ltd. Cover Photo: Prime Minister Netanyahu with President Obama, July 6, 2010 Courtesy: Image Bank / Getty Images Institute for National Security Studies 40 Haim Levanon Street POB 39950 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 61398 Israel Tel. +972-3-640-0400 Fax. +972-3-744-7590 E-mail: [email protected] http:// www.inss.org.il © 2010 All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-965-7425-18-3 Contents Preface 7 PART I: Israel’s Domestic Arena The Fight over the Settlement Construction Freeze Yehuda Ben Meir 15 Israel: Hostage to Its Soldiers’ Captors? Yoram Schweitzer 25 Arabs in Israel: Between Integration and Alienation Ephraim Lavie 37 The Lebanon and Gaza Campaigns: Operational and Ethical-Legal Lessons Gabriel Siboni 59 Benchmarking Civilian Home Front Resilience: Less than Meets the Eye Meir Elran 71 PART II: Israel and the Middle East The Israeli-Palestinian Political Process: Dead End Dynamics Anat Kurz 85 The Arab World and the Political Process Shlomo Brom 99 Turkey and Israel Oded Eran 109 PART III: Regional Trends: Challenges and Responses Challenges to the United States in the Greater Middle East Mark A. Heller 121 The American-Israeli Relationship: Between Crisis and Common Cause Jeremy Issacharoff 131 The Iranian Challenge Ephraim Kam 141 The European Union and the Middle East Shimon Stein 157 Approaching the End of the Mubarak Era: Egypt’s Achievements and Challenges Yoram Meital 175 Lebanon: Between Democratization and Islamization Benedetta Berti 189 Sunni Islamist Militancy in the Region and Beyond Yoram Schweitzer and Jonathan Schachter 201 Conclusion Darkening Clouds on the Horizon Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz 217 Appendix: The Middle East Military Balance Trends in Military Buildup in the Middle East Yiftah Shapir 229 Review of Armed Forces 239 Contributors 293 Preface Preface Strategic Survey for Israel 2010 continues the annual series published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). The articles in the volume analyze multiple aspects of the security and political situation in Israel, probing the complex challenges confronting Israel and discussing the various options of dealing with them. Since last year’s publication of the previous book in the series, no breakthrough has occurred that offers Israel a better containment of the strategic challenges that surround it. Moreover, threats in Israel’s immediate vicinity and in more distant areas appear to be garnering strength. The political process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority faces a dead end as a result of a wide gap between the parties’ views on the initial terms for talks on an agreement and the very purpose of the dialogue. This gap was clearly manifested in the recourse to indirect talks between the parties, mediated by a third party, the United States. The Gaza Strip blockade has not realized the hope of weakening Hamas to an extent that would either enable the Palestinian Authority to negotiate more concretely with Israel towards an actual settlement or reduce the threat to security from the organization’s military entrenchment in the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, the ongoing blockade on Gaza has become the focus of blatant international criticism against Israel, creating the aura of a diplomatic siege against Israel. Hizbollah has also continued to arm itself and gain political power in Lebanon, relying on its close ties with Iran and Syria. Syria in turn has accelerated its resumption of political power and influence in Lebanon. With the stagnation of the political process between Israel and Syria and the regaining of power by Hizbollah, it appears that the front that is forming to the north of Israel is more threatening than in past years. 7 Preface Iran, which proceeds toward completion of its military nuclear program while it demonstrates the powerlessness of the opposing international forces, has established itself as the leader of the regional anti-Israel camp. Over the past year, Turkey has to a certain extent moved closer to this camp. Indeed, from an ally and strategic partner to Israel, Turkey has become a leading anti-Israel force on this front and is seen as a source of inspiration for militant Islamic forces. Moreover, the deadlock in the political process between Israel, the Palestinians, and Syria has hindered any possibility of preventing or at least delaying Iran’s striving for regional dominance by creating a camp that would include Israel and the pragmatic Arab countries, particularly Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. In the shadow of these threats looms the rising tension between Israel and the US. The differences of opinion between the Israeli government and the American administration originate from the political deadlock and from the popular perception held by President Barack Obama’s political circle that the policies of the Netanyahu government are an obstacle to progress towards an Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian settlement – and therefore a barrier to promotion of an American agenda for the Greater Middle East. This development undermines Israel’s position in the regional and international arenas and contributes to its delegitimization, while threatening to weaken it in the security realm. Although Israel has proved its impressive ability to deliver a deterring military message, this achievement also carries a heavy political price. International criticism of Israel’s intense response to military provocation may limit Israel’s freedom of action when once again there will be a need to take determined measures if its military deterrence wanes and there is renewed interest by militant elements in another round of confrontation. The limitations are the result of decreased international legitimacy for military moves that Israel views as necessary for its self defense. In addition to withstanding international – especially Middle Eastern and European – protest against the use of military force to cope with political- territorial challenges, Israel must also contend with the erosion of one of its most fundamental bases for military deterrence: American willingness to support its policy. 8 Preface As such, Israel faces a time of difficult decision making in essential political and security issues, and any decisions taken will have an inevitable impact on the domestic political arena. Israel is in a position – not for the first time in its history, and some would say “as usual” – where any attempt to stabilize its regional and international surrounding will destabilize its internal arena, while any effort to prevent internal agitation will incur a steep diplomatic price and difficulty in containing security challenges. The articles compiled here paint a comprehensive picture of the complex dilemmas Israel faces. Like previous volumes in the series, the articles deal with developments over the past year in the Middle East itself and in the international arena in a Middle East context, with a focus on trends that are not always unique to Israel but have direct and distinctive implications for it. Emphasis on the Israeli angle appears in the choice of subjects, in the arenas that are covered in this volume, and in the analyses themselves. The first part of the volume, “Israel’s Domestic Arena,” includes discussion of five issues on Israel’s domestic scene. The article by Yehuda Ben Meir discusses the freeze on construction in settlements and the related tension between Israel and the United States. He describes the range of internal Israeli considerations regarding the settlements, which leave the overall issue a source of tension in the Israeli domestic arena as well as a source of disagreement between Israel and the US. Yoram Schweitzer’s article discusses the politically and emotionally laden subject of prisoner exchanges, an issue that Israel has been forced to confront with non-state elements, and analyzes the security, political, and public opinion components inherent in the complex decisions required by this issue, both in the past and in the present. In his article, Ephraim Lavie discusses
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