sign in sign up
<<
Home , Danny Yatom, Doron Almog, Elazar Stern, Giora Eiland, Sami Turgeman, Shlomo Gazit

The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Twenty Years of Strategic Foresight

No. 30 BULLETIN October 2013 Tectonic Changes in the Middle East

Inside Stopping Iran’s Nuclear Drive Israeli-Palestinian BESA Center associates Diplomacy: discuss the “Arab Spring,” Whereto? American, Islamic earthquakes, European, Asian, Indian, and Turkish democracy and security Security Challenges New Books and Policy Papers at the BESA Center Arab Spring or Islamic Earthquake? BESA Center Publishes Book on the Tectonic Changes in the Middle East

Eight experts from the Begin-Sadat Center for Maj. Gen. , Outgoing IDF Strategic Studies and other Israeli institutes Deputy Chief of Staff: "'s Sinai and collaborated to publish a book this year on the Syrian Borders Have Become No-Man's tectonic changes in the Arab Middle East. Lands, with Many The book, edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar, was published Sophisticated in Hebrew as Arab Spring? Israel, the World and the Changing Region (Yediot Ahronot Books, February Weapons on the 2013), and in English as The Arab Spring, Democracy Loose". and Security: Domestic and Regional Ramifications (Routledge: BESA Studies in International Security, March 2013). Publication of the book was sponsored by the Tikva Foundation.

2 3

The wide- terrorist militias,” he Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor of the US looked the other way, in other ranging and added. University (“Democratization in the Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh cases it applied heavy diplomatic exhaustive Middle East”) said that the rapid pressure, and in one case it intervened volumes are Naveh also warned sequence of popular Arab uprisings Prof. Hillel Frisch of the BESA Center dozen Arab states, probably because militarily. This inconsistency damages the first of that because of the shows the inter-connectedness of (“The Emerging Middle East Balance the residents of these countries can US standing in the Middle East, he said. their kind incredible missile the Arab world. He pointed to the of Power”) said that despite the ouster see that upheavals are costly, painful anywhere in stockpiles in the of four Arab rulers, the Muslim cold and don’t always lead to good results. Dr. Boaz Ganor of the International the world. They hands of and war between the American-Saudi- Institute for Counter-Terrorism at evaluate the Hezbollah, “in a next Gulf state alliance and the Iranian- Prof. Eytan Gilboa of the BESA Center the IDC Herzliya (“The Challenge of Arab upheavals war, the Israeli home Hizballah axis will continue to prevail (“The United States and the Arab Terrorism”) said that struggles within convulsing front, including Tel as a main feature of Mideast politics. Spring”) presented a critical analysis of Arab countries could aggravate the Middle East, consider their Aviv, will be under attack even before Meanwhile, the decreasing stature of American policies towards uprisings in the terrorist threat to Israel in the implications of the regional volatility soldiers will engage the enemy on the many of Arab states – mainly Egypt – several states including Egypt, Yemen, short run (destabilization of Arab for Israel and its chances to live northern and southern battlefronts.” will prove a boon to Turkey and Iran. Bahrain, Libya, and Syria. He found a governments may help facilitate cross- peacefully in the region, and evaluate He also noted that the revolutions considerable gap between American border terrorist attacks against Israel), the implications of the unrest for Naveh emphasized that Israel has to have not spread to more than one rhetoric and actions. In some cases medium term (new Arab governments regional and global security. take very seriously Iranian rhetoric about destroying Israel. “We do not In March, the BESA Center held a have the privilege of ignoring this conference to mark publication of the or downplaying such statements. In Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor new books, headlined by Maj. Gen. past generations, there were those Yair Naveh, Outgoing IDF Deputy who ignored genocidal statement of Chief of Staff. “Israel’s Sinai and Syrian intention of this type, and the Jewish growing importance of the “Arab borders have become no-man’s People paid for this dearly. This is all street,” the rise of political Islam, the lands, with unprecedented amounts the more true when we’re talking salience of Salafis and jihadists in the of sophisticated weapons flooding about somebody building nuclear revolutions, the cross-border nature into the area,” he warned. “While weapons.” of the strife, the failure of almost Israel does not want to intervene all Arab state institutions, and the in the Arab upheavals around us in At the conference, each of the book worsening Shia-Shiite divide. any way, the IDF will act to interdict chapter authors reviewed his primary Prof. Hillel Frisch Prof. Eytan Gilboa Dr. Boaz Ganor the transfer of strategic weapons to findings. Remembering Center Associates Arab Spring or Islamic Earthquake? Bonen, Kanovsky, and Rotem

On its twentieth anniversary, the BESA Center remembers three associates who were among its founders.

Maj. Gen. Avraham Rotem, who passed away in 2006, was a decorated twenty-year veteran of the . He was head of the army’s training department and a member of the General Staff. In the 1973 war he was a leading tank commander on the Golan Heights, and received the IDF’s highest award for bravery. After retirement from active duty, Rotem became director of strategic planning at Rafael, the Defense Ministry’s weapons development authority. At the BESA Center he specialized in IDF force structure and the future Mideast battlefield. In 2007, the center held a first conference in his memory, which was addressed by then-defense minister and former IDF chief-of-staff Lt. Gen. (res.) , the IDF chief-of-staff may find themselves led by terrorist and Israel must quickly crush any Prof. Efraim Inbar of the BESA Center Lt. Gen. , then-Commander of the IDF Colleges Maj. Gen. organizations to military conflict with signs of unrest. ("Strategic Implications for Israel") Gershon Hacohen, and then-OC IDF Manpower Maj. Gen. . Israel), and long term (establishment assessed the major implications 4 of new Islamist regimes across Dr. Gil Feiler of the BESA Center (“Arab for Israel’s national security of the 5 the Arab world may lead to the World Economic Situation”) explored weakening of Arab states, changes emergence of new jihadist terrorist the economic causes and effects in the regional balance of power, organizations). of the different Arab upheavals and America’s apparent retreat from the region. He Dr. Zeev Bonen, who passed away in 2010, was for forty years focused on the legendary president and director-general of Rafael. He is new concerns credited with developing Israel's advanced missile industry. At that threaten the BESA Center he specialized in weapons technologies and Israel’s national military strategies, and the defense industries. He received a security, Ph.D. from Cambridge University, taught at Haifa University among them and the IDF National Defense College, served as an advisor to heightened the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and as risks of rapid research director for the Ministry of Industry’s Chief Scientist. change and strategic surprises, increased Prof. Alexander Bligh Dr. Gil Feiler Prof. Shmuel Sandler terrorist activity, reduced Prof. Eliyahu Kanovsky, who passed away in 2010, was known internationally deterrence, as the definitive authority on OPEC and Middle East oil politics, and the Prof. Alexander Bligh of Ariel and found similarities among growing regional isolation and the economies of Egypt, Syria, , Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran. University (“The Arab Spring and countries such as capital flight, Iranian nuclear threat. A graduate of Columbia University, he served as a professor of economics at Palestinian Apathy”) noted that youth unemployment, widespread while many countries in the Middle corruption, and income disparity. Bar-Ilan University, a fellow at Harvard University’s Center for Middle Eastern East have been struggling with old Studies and at Columbia University’s Middle East Institute. Among his many regimes, the Palestinian population Prof. Shmuel Sandler of the BESA monographs were Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf War: Accelerating has not indicated any opposition to Center ("Israel and the Arab Spring") OPEC’s Demise; The Economy of Saudi Arabia: Troubled Present, Grim Future; and its leaders – the Palestinian Authority analyzed the interface between Israeli Iran’s Economic Morass. For the BESA Center, Prof. Kanovsky wrote a number in the and Hamas in the domestic and international politics of important studies which critiqued the dominant “economic advancement . However, he said, the in light of the Arab uprisings, and the will bring peace” paradigm, including The Forgotten Dimension: Economic status quo in the territories is not impact on Israeli public opinion of the Developments in Arab Countries and their Possible Impact on Peace Agreement, likely to remain unchanged for long, unrest. and Assessing the Mideast Peace Economic Dividend. Countering Iran BESA Center International Academic Advisory Board Members Warn that Iran's Nuclear Drive Must be Stopped

Prof. Steven David: "Iran with Nuclear Weapons Poses an Unacceptable Risk to Israel"

itself on the brink of being toppled years of trying, economic sanctions from within. Facing the end of their have yet to bring Iran to its knees, Prof. Yehezkel Dror: rule, and possibly their lives, Iranian and a military strike promises only leaders, fully rational but with to leave Iran with the ability to “Israel must destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities nothing to lose, might choose to lash make more nuclear weapons later out against Israel in a parting shot for while unleashing catastrophic and simultaneously launch a comprehensive posterity.” consequences in its wake. Coping Prof. Yehezkel Dror Prof. Steven David with a nuclear Iran is hardly better. Middle East peace initiative” For comparison, Prof. David considers Israel is unable to bring about a how other leaders, especially those favorable regime change, defense with access to weapons of mass offers limited protection against a The elder statesman of Israel’s Arab League peace initiative of ten laureate Yehezkel Dror Prof. Steven R. David, one of America’s destruction, have acted in the face of determined nuclear attack, while 6 strategic community, Prof. Yehezkel years ago. Integrating an attack with is professor emeritus of political most respected international relations threats to their rule. ”Studying Fidel preemption or an effort to disarm 7 Dror, argues in a study published a broad, multi-dimensional, credible science at the Hebrew University scholars, argues in a study published Castro during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Iranians are not likely to be fully by the BESA Center that Israel peace initiative will multiply the of , and the dean of by the BESA Center that Iran, even Saddam Hussein after the first Gulf successful leaving Israel open to must destroy the Iranian nuclear benefits of both, whether or not there Israeli strategic thinkers. He was a under a rational leadership, presents War, and Bashar al-Assad’s current horrific Iranian retaliation. In such a facilities and simultaneously launch is an immediate favorable response member of the Israeli Committee of an unacceptably high risk of attacking stand in Syria can open our eyes to dire situation, what is Israel to do? a comprehensive Middle East peace from Arab states,” Dror concludes. Investigation of the Second Lebanon Israel with nuclear weapons. He the seemingly irrational behavior that initiative. War (known as the Winograd demonstrates why, in word and deed, can occur when powerful people who His conclusion: “Israel must be In his BESA Center study, “An Committee). In 2009, the BESA Center Iran indeed poses an existential threat are used to having their way begin to prepared to launch a military strike “Israel cannot leave the future of Integrated Imperative: Attack Iran and published his study "Political-Security against Israel. believe their days are numbered.” to prevent Iran from becoming a its national security to decision by Launch a Regional Peace Initiative,” Statecraft for Israel" (Hebrew), nuclear power, because in the not too others. If Iranian advances towards Dror carefully considers and weighs and later the seminal book Israeli Prof. David argues that for a whole “The Iranian leadership is close to distant future, Israel may confront a nuclear weapon are not halted, the dangers posed by a nuclear Statecraft: National Security Challenges host of reasons there is a real meeting all the requirements for nuclear armed Iran whose leaders find Israel will have to attack Iran’s Iran, the multiplied dangers of a and Responses (BESA Studies in possibility that an Iran armed with unleashing disaster: waning power, themselves with nothing to lose and nuclear facilities while they are still nuclear Middle East, the inefficacy of International Security: Routledge nuclear weapons would use them, unbridled hatred, and capability. everything to destroy.” vulnerable,” writes Dror. “A violent diplomacy and sanctions in halting Press, 2011). even if its leaders are as rational as Should the Iranian regime teeter reaction by Iran is to be expected, but the Iranian nuclear effort, the role of the leaders of the US and the USSR on the brink of oblivion, all that Prof. Steven David, a member of the its maximum cost to Israel, the US and the US, the consequences of an Israeli were during the Cold War. ”There would stop it from carrying out its BESA Center’s International Academic all of the Middle East is considerably attack on Iran, Iranian retaliation are a range of circumstances in murderous threats against Israel Advisory Board, is Vice Dean for smaller than the long-term price options, the launching of a new which it is all too easy to see how and perhaps the United States Undergraduate Education at Johns we will all pay if Iran gains nuclear regional peace initiative, and the an Iranian leadership – rational, cost is lack of capability. When you Hopkins University. He has been weapons. political and governmental feasibility calculating, reasonable and prudent add this to the real dangers of chairman of the ’university’s political of his proposals for Israeli action. as it may be – would still present unauthorized launchings, accidents science department, international “But in order to bring about essential a very real possibility of using its and miscalculations, and consider the studies program, and Jewish studies measures preventing the renewal Prof. Dror’s bottom line: “Either nuclear weapons against Israel in the region – where distances are short, program, and was Associate Dean for of Iran’s nuclear efforts and change decision – to strike or not to strike – is face of credible threats of retaliation. tempers hot, and disputes plentiful Academic Affairs. He has written four the trajectory of the Middle East as a gamble, but an attempt to destroy Most important (and often ignored) – the possibilities of nuclear war books on American foreign policy a whole for the better, Israel must the Iranian nuclear facilities is a is how deterrence could unravel if become unacceptably high.” and international security. combine an attack on Iranian nuclear more reasonable gamble. Israel will Iran’s leaders, armed with nuclear facilities with presentation of a probably have to strike Iran. But if you arms, faced the prospect of imminent “Israel is faced with an array of comprehensive Middle East peace make war, also propose peace.” overthrow.” policy choices, none of which agreement, relying in part on the are attractive,” writes Prof. David. ”It is easy to imagine a situation in “Regional disarmament is an utopian which, following massive domestic fantasy, diplomacy shows few unrest, the Iranian leadership found signs of yielding results after ten BESA Center associates in roundtable discussion Prof. Efraim Karsh: Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy: Whereto? "An interim accord or unilateral Israeli moves would be a mistake, and only teach the Palestinians not to compromise"

Several BESA Center research associates convened recently to discuss the fortunes and pitfalls of the newly reignited Israeli-Palestinian diplomatic talks. Among the something like this: “If you want me the first issue of discussion, because points of debate: What brought about the talks, after so to take care of the Iranian nuclear that is the key to real peace. many years of deadlock, and what kind of agreement is problem, you give me something real on the Palestinian issue.” This Sandler: In light of what is happening feasible? What should Israel’s red lines be, and way Obama can show his face in in the Arab world, I am not sure that what should Israel do if the talks fail? public as someone who had at least Mahmoud Abbas truly wants an one success in the Mideast, after his independent Palestinian state. failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, and more. Netanyahu seeks to Prof. Efraim Karsh: The Palestinians placate Obama, so that Obama has no never truly wanted the constrained excuses for failing to deal with Iran. mini-state in the West Bank and Gaza Netanyahu does not believe there that Israel can give them. They are is any connection between the two simply not ready for full peace with issues, but he has failed in convincing Dr. Jonathan Rynhold Israel that ends all claims, which is Obama and Kerry to separate why the current round of talks makes between them. Palestinian division between little sense. Albert Einstein once said: Hamas and , and the large gap “Insanity is doing the same thing between the parties on the core over and over again and expecting Why were negotiations re-started is to avoid being blamed by the final status issue. This gap is not different results.” 8 now after so many years of Americans for the failure of the talks. primarily a function of the Netanyahu 9 deadlock? government’s positions, because Prof. Shmuel Sandler: Netanyahu is Ehud Olmert was also unable to reach Prof. Eytan Gilboa: Several successive going through the same syndrome as an agreement with Abbas. American administrations have been did Begin, Rabin, Sharon, and Olmert. obsessed with Israeli-Palestinian He wants to stake a place for himself Teitelbaum: The best that can be peace, believing it is a key for solving in the chronicles of the Jewish state as hoped for is a long-term interim all the problems of the Middle East, a contributor to a peace process. agreement (although even achieving especially US relations with the that is unlikely). This means a long- Arab and Muslim world. Although, term Israeli military presence on the this belief has been wrong from Jordan River, Israeli development the beginning, part of it still drives of the settlement blocs, and Israeli US policy. Given the upheavals in Dr. Mordechai Kedar control over Jerusalem, but does not the Middle East, the administration Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum require Palestinian recognition of believes that an Israeli-Palestinian Israel as a Jewish state or an end-of- breakthrough is more important than What kind or scope of an agreement conflict declaration. Prof. Efraim Karsh ever. Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum: There are is feasible, and what should Israel’s important members of Prime Minister red lines be? Kedar: The only agreement possible Netanyahu’s coalition who seek to is a long-term interim understanding What alternative diplomatic push the political process forward: Gilboa: Since Oslo, the Palestinians on security and economy. There is no directions might Israel take? ’s party and Yair have demonstrated several times possibility for an accord on the core Lapid’s party. Netanyahu that they are not ready or willing to problems of settlements, borders, Teitelbaum: Netanyahu should needs to demonstrate that he make peace with Israel. The maximum Jerusalem, and refugees. Israel should propose an Israel Peace Initiative that is responsive to their concerns. Prof. Shmuel Sandler Israel is prepared to concede doesn’t reject any talk of a Palestinian state would include and acknowledge the But his actual main goal in these meet the minimum the Palestinians with territorial contiguity, since such aspects of the Arab Peace Initiative, negotiations is to avoid being blamed demand. Thus, the best outcome contiguity will enable the PA or which Israel views favorably, and by the Americans for their failure. Dr. Mordechai Kedar: I think that could be an interim agreement for a Hamas to turn the entire space into a there are several of those. For Palestinian Authority leader the whole thing is not about the period of at least five years. The long terror state, reaching from Mahmoud Abbas, progress is the Palestinians, but about the Iranian term solution should be found within in the south to Afula in the north. Rynhold: The Palestinians oppose only way to stay in power in light of nuclear program. Obama, with a Jordanian context. an interim agreement. But if Israel his waning popularity. The release absolutely no reasonable basis, Dr. Max Singer: There should be no decides to take the initiative and of Palestinian terrorists by Israel is a combines the Israeli-Palestinian Dr. Jonathan Rynhold: A permanent Israeli concessions without a quid propose a move which involves Prof. Eytan Gilboa major achievement for him in these issue with the American-Iranian file. status agreement is impossible, pro quo. Israel should insist that handing over a significant amount talks. Like Netanyahu, his main goal I suspect that he said to Netanyahu for known reasons: the internal Palestinian refugee resettlement be of territory, the international BESA Center associates in roundtable discussion Israeli-Palestinian Diplomacy: Whereto?

Prof. Efraim Inbar: Maj. Gen. (res.) Dr. Max Singer: “Two-State Paradigm Giora Eiland: “Resettle the Is Obsolete” “Seek Regional Refugees First” Alternatives to the community will adopt it on the basis the Palestinians themselves, unless 350,000 Palestinian refugees already Four years ago, BESA Center director Earlier this year, the BESA that something is better than nothing and until they are willing to sue for have fled Syria to Jordan, Lebanon, Prof. Efraim Inbar published a study, Two-State Solution” center published “A and the Palestinians will not be able to full peace on reasonable terms. As Turkey, Egypt, and many other states, “The Rise and Demise of the Two- Strategy for Peace with insert a different agenda. If Netanyahu I say, the first subject to settled has and will not return to Syria in the State Paradigm,” which critiques Three years ago, the BESA Center the Palestinians” by senior decides to move in this direction it to be “refugees,” because they are foreseeable future. Therefore they conventional diplomatic wisdom, published a comprehensive study research associate Dr. will be because he accepts that Israel the Palestinian weapons for the do not exist anymore as a group. and calls for conflict management by Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland, Max Singer. His approach has a core long-term strategic interest destruction of Israel. Many of the 400,000 refugees in with re-linking of the Palestinian former Prime Minister ’s highlights the Palestinian in partition of the Land of Israel, and Lebanon may yet flee too to other areas to Egypt and Jordan. national security advisor, which refusal to accept Israel as a that secondarily, demonstrating this Gilboa: Israel needs to launch a well- countries. This weakens the Palestinian argued that “the diplomatic space Jewish state and Palestinian commitment will improve Israel’s organized global public diplomacy demand for “right of return,” since “The two-state paradigm has a long for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking reluctance to drop its armed international standing. However, campaign to explain Palestinian the two big refugee groups are pedigree and current popularity within the current two-state and ideological opposition Netanyahu may feel that the region inability and unwillingness to sign a disintegrating. Every refugee will solve in contemporary academic and paradigm is extraordinarily narrow.” to Israel’s existence. He 10 is simply too volatile right now and peace accord with Israel. his own problem wherever he will be. diplomatic circles, but it has no Policymakers, Eiland said, need to proposes a plan that the 11 that he needs to focus on the Iranian Furthermore, Arab states are too busy chance of achieving a stable and move towards a regional approach global community can adopt challenge. Is time on Israel’s side, or working with their own problems, and they peaceful outcome in the coming to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in in order to help bring peace against Israel? already abandoned the Palestinian decades,” wrote Prof. Inbar. “It is an which Arab states take responsibility between the two parties, Karsh: An interim accord or unilateral issue. Thirdly, the Arab world is losing obsolete paradigm.” for solving the conflict and invest involving active opposition to Israeli moves would be the worst Teitelbaum: Time is working against its ability to maintain pressure on Israel tangible resources in the solution. Palestinian denial of Israel’s possible way to proceed. All this Israel, since the lack of a two-state or threaten her, since the most radical “Mistakenly, Israeli and Western connection to the land; teaches the Palestinians is not to solution undermines Israel’s legitimacy anti-Israeli actors have been weakened leaders still think that they can Eiland’s alternative approach involves support for Israel’s legitimacy; compromise, and to simply wait for as a Jewish and democratic state. by the war in Syria. engage in building a Palestinian a Palestinian-Jordanian federation, resettling Palestinian Israel to tear itself out of the West Bank Israel’s legitimacy is a strategic asset. state that will choose coexistence three-party land swaps (including refugees outside of Israel; a without real security or any Palestinian It is getting harder and harder to with Israel. But political engineering Egyptian land), or, most probably, a modification of aid programs concessions. convince even Israel’s supporters of from the outside has its limits, as mixture of the two paradigms. In all to reduce Palestinian use the legitimacy of expanded Jewish has been amply demonstrated in cases, Israel relinquishes Gaza and of foreign money to teach Prof. Efraim Inbar: In the absence of settlement in areas that are still under Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. most of the West Bank, previous hate and support terror; a partial agreement, which is unlikely negotiation for the establishment of a Palestinian society has a long way to treaty commitments are respected, and encouragement of free due to Palestinian demands, the best possible Palestinian state. go towards political maturity, sobriety and Arab states are required to speech and discussion in option is conflict management. and moderation, and this change contribute concrete resources and Palestinian society. The author Inbar: Time is on Israel’s side. Israel is must grow naturally from within; make “painful sacrifices” for peace. argues that peace is unlikely Kedar: The only real, long-term not nearly as isolated as the Left claims. which will take decades, if at all.” to ensue unless these matters solution that can be realistically The power differential between Israel Eiland understands that the are dealt with now. implemented is what I call the and its regional adversaries is growing “In the meantime, we are stuck with international community is currently “eight-state solution.” This involves in military and economic terms. In two rival Palestinian entities on locked into the standard two-state the establishment of a council of addition, Israeli society has evinced Israel’s borders which are nowhere paradigm. Moving beyond this, Palestinian “emirates” or mini-states great resilience, as it understands that near merging into a responsible he says, will require third-party based on the sociology of the different the Palestinians are responsible for the partner for Israel. So for now, the diplomatic leadership, a US mindset clans and tribes in Gaza, Judea, and stalemate. The threat of international two-state option is not relevant,” shift, and capitalization on the Samaria. This will give Arab leadership isolation and declining legitimacy is concludes Inbar. “Linkage or right political opportunities. “What a firm local base with a traditional and grossly overstated, purposefully so by retrocession of the territories remains certain,” concludes Eiland, homogenous sociological foundation. Israel’s Left for political reasons. to some form of Egyptian and is that the disadvantages of the Jordanian security control and civil currently-envisioned two-state Singer: Israel shouldn’t negotiate Kedar: Time is definitely on Israel’s administration has a greater chance paradigm outweigh its advantages in terms with itself. Israel should argue side for many reasons. The Palestinian of stabilizing the situation than the the eyes of the combatants. As thus, All three studies can be found at that “occupation” is a choice made by refugee issue is dissipating. More than previous paradigm,” says the study. it has run its course.” www.besacenter.org Recent BESA Center Conferences American, European, Asian, Indian, and Turkish Security Challenges

Five major BESA Center international conferences over the past year studied international security and Middle East affairs from the perspectives of America, India in Global Affairs Europe, Asia, India, and Turkey. These conferences brought to Israel top policy Participants in this April conference included Prof. Yitzhak Shichor of Haifa experts and practitioners from each of the orbits, for dialogue with BESA U and Hebrew U, and Dr. Arvind Gupta, Center associates and top Israeli officials. Dr. Balachandran Gopalan, and Dr. Rajiv Nayan of the Indian Institute for Defense and Analysis – with which the BESA Center has for years conducted an annual strategic dialogue. A closed workshop that preceded the conference involved a frank exchange of national American Foreign Policy security assessments. Dr. Arvind Gupta and Prof. Yitzhak Shichor.

Europe and the Middle East 12 Participants in this May conference, conducted in 13 cooperation with the Aspen Institute in Berlin, included Dr. Rainer Hermann, Middle East editor of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Prof. Carlo Masala of the University Professors Dieter Mahncke, Eytan Gilboa, Barry Rubin, Alon Levkowitz, and Amnon Sella (l. to r.) of the Armed Forces (Munich); Prof. Joachim Krause and Mr. Charles King Mallory IV of the Aspen Institute; Participants in this November 2012 conference, held Institute for Near East Policy warned that by the end Col. Rainer Meyer zum Felde of the Federal Academy just after the American elections to consider President of 2013 the US will no longer be able to say that Iran on Security Policy (Berlin); David Witzthum of Israel Obama’s second term policies, included Leslie Mirchin, doesn’t have enough material for the bomb. “The Television; and Mr. Uzi Rubin and Prof. Shlomo Shpiro director of the AIPAC Israel office; Dr. Amnon Cavari US must demand clarity from the Iranians over what of the BESA Center. Dr. Fiamma Nirenstein, a journalist, of IDC; Prof. Menachem Blondheim and Prof. Amnon they plan to do with their nuclear material,” Makovsky writer, and former Italian parliamentarian, passionately Sella of Hebrew University; Prof. Barry Rubin of the IDC said. “Obama knows that if Iran gets the bomb it will ignited a debate about the resurgence of anti- GLORIA Center; Prof. Dieter Mahncke of the College of destroy American credibility in the Middle East, given Semitism in Western Europe, and the impact of this on Europe; and Dr. Yael Bloch-Elkon, Dr. Alon Levkowitz, that so many American administrations have drawn European Middle East policy, including the boycott and Dr. Rainer Hermann, Dr. Fiamma Nirenstein, and Prof. Carlo Masala. Prof. Eytan Gilboa, and Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum of the idea of Iran with a bomb as a red line. This is the divestment movement. the BESA Center. David Makovsky of the Washington last thing he wants.”

Participants in this July conference included International Security Turkey: Whereto? Prof. Jacob Landau of Hebrew University; Dr. Harold Rhode, a former Turkish desk officer Challenges in Asia at the US Department of Defense; Taner Aydin of the Turkish Andalou News Agency; Participants in this January conference included Ambassador Pinhas Avivi, senior deputy Prof. Jacques deLisle of the University of director general of the Israel Ministry of Foreign Pennsylvania; Dr. Tai Wan-Chin, Dr. Li Da-Jung, and Affairs; Nigar Göksel, Editor-in-Chief of the Dr. Tzou Chong-Ko Peter of Tamkang University in Turkish Policy Quarterly; Prof. Ofra Bengio of Tel Taiwan; Dr. Meena Singh Roy of the Indian Institute Aviv University; and Dr. Alexander Murinson. for Defense and Analysis; Dr. Tan Seng Chye of the Prof. Metin Heper of Bilkent University, perhaps S. Rajaratnam School in Singapore; and Dr. Alon the top political sociologist in Turkey, gave an Levkowitz of the BESA Center. Dr. Song Daesung extended defense of Turkish Prime Minister of the Korean Sejong Institute headlined the Erdogan’s policies, while Dr. Efrat Aviv and conference with a detailed analysis of the Chinese Prof. Efraim Inbar of the BESA Center critiqued Dr. Kuo Chiu-Ching, Dr. Li Da-Jung, and Dr.Lin Juo-Yu. threats to regional and international security. Ambassador Pinhas Avivi, Prof. Efraim Inbar, Ms. Nigar Göksel, Erdogan’s domestic and foreign policies, and Prof. Ofra Bengio, and Dr. Alexander Murinson. skewered his anti-Semitic statements. The BESA Center: Strategic Prescience

2006 2007 2008 2009

14 15

2010 2011 2012 2013 Benjamin Netanyahu at the BESA Center

Opposition leader Netanyahu spoke at the BESA Center to launch the center’s “Project 1948,” focusing on Arab-Jewish relations and the collapse and dispersal of Palestinian Arab society. “There has been a ‘reversal of causality’ in the fight over public opinion regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict,” explained Netanyahu. “Arab propagandists have succeeded in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is no stranger to the Begin-Sadat replacing the cause of conflict with its consequence. They posit that Israel’s Center for Strategic Studies. Over the past two decades, he has spoken presence in the territories is the cause of conflict, when in fact our presence in Judea and Samaria is the result of their aggression. And why did they at the center eight times, including the delivery of three major policy oppose Israel before 1967? Because, they say, of the plight of Palestinian refugees, when in fact the Palestinian refugee problem is a consequence addresses, beginning with the center’s founding conference through to of their rejection of partition! Unfortunately, many in Israel have swallowed the center’s twentieth anniversary international conference. the distorted Arab version of history, leaving us confused and lacking in self-confidence in our own national legitimacy. Consequently, we must go back to the basics and teach the truth about the Arab-Israeli conflict in our schools and universities. We must reject false, loaded Arab code-words like ‘occupation’, and the ‘right’ of return. We must bust apart the web of lies.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu gave a major policy address at the BESA Center on “Israel’s Grand National Security Strategy.” Former Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke at He spoke of the threats to BESA Center conference (in memory of his friend, MK Israel from missiles and non- Prof. Zvi Weinberg of Yisrael BeAliyah) on the political conventional weaponry, future of Jerusalem. Netanyahu said that “dividing warning that a nuclear Iraq Jerusalem would be a “moral and historical mistake. It is would dominate its Jordanian difficult to find states and peoples who are prepared to neighbor and any Palestinian divide their capitals. It is particularly shocking in light of 16 authority and thus directly the historical connection between the people of Israel 17 threaten Israel’s eastern border. and their capital, Jerusalem. The result of the division “For this reason and for others, of Jerusalem and the subsequent entry of Hamas into Israel cannot countenance the city would be the formation of an Iranian enclave a completely independent in the city, which would put the residents of Jerusalem leader Netanyahu spoke at Palestinian state, whose porous at risk of daily attack, making their lives impossible and center’s founding conference, where borders would not be under blowing up the conflict to dimensions we haven’t seen he warned of Palestinian intentions our supervision.” until today.” to swamp Israel with refugees.

Third-term Prime Minister Likud leader Netanyahu warned Finance Minister Netanyahu spoke at a BESA Center conference Netanyahu planned to that “a withdrawal from the Golan marking publication of Natan Sharansky’s book, The Case for deliver an address at the Heights would undermine our Democracy. He spoke of the nexus between terrorism and BESA Center focusing on long-term security.” dictatorship. Israel’s challenges.

Second-term Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered his now-famous major diplomatic address at the BESA Center, in which he embraced the two- state solution. BESA Center Books

The Arab Spring, Democracy and Security The Gulf War of 1991 Reconsidered Edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar | 2013 Edited by Profs. Andrew Bacevich and Efraim Routledge Inbar | 2002 Frank Cass An Arab Spring? Edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar | 2013 Efficient Use of Limited Water Resources: Making Yediot Ahronot (Hebrew) Israel a Model State Edited by Prof. Barry Rubin | 2001 BESA Center Israeli Statecraft: National Security Challenges and Responses Prof. Yehezkel Dror | 2011 Democratic Societies and Their Armed Routledge Forces: Israel in Comparative Context Edited by Prof. Stuart A. Cohen | 2000 Frank Cass US-Israeli Relations in a New Era: Issues and Challenges after 9/11 Edited Prof. Eytan Gilboa and Efraim US Allies in a Changing World Inbar | 2009 Edited by Prof. Barry Rubin | 2000 Routledge Frank Cass

Israel and its Army: From Cohesion to The Politics and Economics of Defense Confusion Industries 18 Prof. Stuart A. Cohen | 2008 Edited by Profs. Efraim Inbar and Benzion 19 Routledge Zilberfab | 1998 Frank Cass Radical Islam and International Security: Challenges and Responses Religious Radicalism in the Greater Middle East Edited by Efraim Inbar and Prof. Hillel Edited by Profs. Efraim Inbar and Bruce Frisch | 2007 Maddy-Weitzman | 1997 Routledge Frank Cass

Israel’s Strategic Agenda The National Security of Small States in a Edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar | 2007 Changing World Routledge Edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar and Gabi Sheffer | 1997 Frank Cass Religion in World Conflict Edited by Profs. Jonathan Fox and Shmuel Israeli Strategy after Desert Storm: Lessons Sandler | 2006 of the Second Gulf War Routledge Maj. Gen. (res.) Aharon Levran | 1997 Frank Cass Arafat’s War: The Man and His Battle for Israeli Conquest Hussein the Peacemaker: The History of Prof. Efraim Karsh | 2004 Israel-Jordan Secret Relations 1964-1994 Maariv and the BESA Center Moshe Zak (Hebrew) | 1996 Bar-Ilan University Press/BESA Center Democracies and Small Wars Edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar | 2003 Middle Eastern Security: Prospects for Frank Cass an Arms Control Regime Edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar and Shmuel Sandler | 1995 Armed Forces in the Middle East: Politics Frank Cass and Strategy Edited by Prof. Barry Rubin | 2002 Frank Cass The BESA Center: The Preferred Podium of Israel's Security Leaders

1 2 9 10 11

20 21

3 4 5 12 13 14

1. , Prime Minister, 1991 2. , Prime Minister, 1996, with Moshe Zak and Elyakim Rubinstein 3. , GSS Director, 2001 4. Elyakim Rubinstein, Supreme Court Justice, 1991, 2011 5. Dr. MK, Intelligence Minister, 2009 6. , Director and NSC Chairman, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2007 7. , Minister of Defense, 1995, 2005, 2008, 2011 8. Prof. Uzi Arad, Mossad Intelligence Director and NSC Chairman, 2011, 2012 9. , Mossad Director, 1997, 2007 6 7 8 15 16 10. Dan Meridor, Intelligence Minister, 2004 11. Lt. Gen. Mordechai "Motta" Gur, 1992 12. Lt. Gen. , 2010 13. Lt. Gen. Minister of Defense Ehud Barak, 2007 14. Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, 2007 15. Lt. Gen. Minister of Defense Moshe “Bogi” Yaalon, 2000, 2012 16. Lt. Gen. , 1998, 2001 The BESA Center: The Preferred Podium of Israel's Security Leaders

17 18 19 20 29 30 31 32

22 23

21 22 23 24 33 34 35

17. Maj. Gen. Amos Gilad, 2001, 2004 18. Maj. Gen. Shlomo Gazit, 2004 19. Maj. Gen. Amos Malka, 2004 20. Maj. Gen. , 2003 21. Maj. Gen. and Mossad Director , 2011 22. Maj. Gen. , 2002, 2004 23. Maj. Gen. Eitan Ben-Eliahu, 2003, 2005, 2007 24. Maj. Gen. Elazar Stern, 2007 25. Maj. Gen. Gershon Hacohen, 2007 26. Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland, 2010, 2012 25 26 27 28 36 37 27. Avigdor Kahalani, Brig. Gen. and Minister of Internal Security, 1992 28. Maj. Gen. , 2011 29. Maj. Gen. , 2004, 2011, 2011 30. Maj. Gen. Yaacov Amidror, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010 31. Maj. Gen. , 2004, 2009, 2011, 2012 32. Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh, 2013 33. Maj. Gen. Yiftach Ron-Tal, 2002, 2006 34. Maj. Gen. Yisrael Ziv, 2004 35. Maj. Gen. Minister of Defense , 1997 36. Maj. Gen. , 2011 37. Maj. Gen. Zeev Farkash, 2009 BESA PERSPECTIVES PAPERS 193 194 195 204 205 206 A Second Term Obama Russia’s Declining Influence Abbas Is Part of the Problem, Israeli Backers of the Israel’s Interests in Syria With Nothing to Lose: Administration and the in the Middle East Not the Solution Two-State Solution Should The Limits of a Rational Iran Middle East Support the Levy Report Prof. Efraim Inbar Dr. Anna Geifman and Yuri Teper Prof. Efraim Inbar Prof. Steven David It is a mistake for Israelis to express David Makovsky Dr. Max Singer Russian involvement in the Middle Though much of the international support for Bashar Assad’s victory Lost in the debate over Iran is the The changes in the region will force East is presently nothing more than community sees Mahmoud Abbas Israeli advocates of the two-state in Syria. Israel should stay out of possibility that Iran is a rational the Obama administration to make an attempt by Moscow to hold on as a serious partner for peace, his solution should support the findings the Syrian conflict, and is better off actor that cannot be deterred. some difficult decisions on how to act to its deteriorating position on the words and actions prove that he is of the Levy Commission, which affirms having a failed state next door than a Iranian leaders may strike Israel with regarding Egypt, Syria, the Palestinians, international stage. interested in nothing less than the Israel’s right to settle in the West Bank. strong, Iranian-backed entity there. nuclear weapons if they feel they and Iran. Alarmist scenarios that a ruin of the State of Israel. Israel will thus be viewed as giving have nothing to lose. second term Obama administration up its own territory in any future will abandon Israel are unwarranted. agreement.

196 197 198 207 208 209 Morsi’s Egypt and Mali: A Diplomatic The US and Iran: Pre- Welcome Back to Mubarak’s Israel and Azerbaijan: Can the IDF Afford a Small Ahmadinejad’s Iran: Much Ado Opportunity for Israel Negotiation Maneuvering Egypt Geopolitical Reasons for Army? Over Next to Nothing Stronger Ties Dr. Emmanuel Navon Prof. Eytan Gilboa Prof. Hillel Frisch Prof. Avi Kober Prof. Hillel Frisch Dr. Anna Geifman and Dima Course France’s military intervention against The United States and Iran are The latest chapter in the Egyptian The IDF must take into 24 Morsi’s hosting Ahmadinejad signals Mali’s Islamists has provided Israel trading diplomatic fire, with neither Revolution is nothing more than a Israel benefits from having a Muslim consideration that a smaller military 25 a potential improvement in ties with an opportunity to improve its side willing to budge. Iran will return to the military dictatorship ally on Iran’s border and Azerbaijan has comes with a price, as even low- between Egypt and Iran. This move relations with France and restore its continue its drive to the bomb, of Hosni Mubarak. Egypt’s troubles gained a serious partner in the political, intensity conflicts require a large will backfire, as ultimately Morsi ties with Africa’s non-Arab Muslim leaving Obama with no other may only be beginning. military, and technology spheres. The number of troops to enable the needs the US and Gulf countries countries. choice but to take military action. countries have much to gain from army to succeed. more than they need him. strengthening their ties even further.

199 200 201 210 211 212 Iron Dome: Has the Euphoria Egypt’s Army Will Not Israel’s Apology to Turkey: Where Is the Israeli Military Israeli Coalition Politics and France and the Syrian Civil War Heading? Foreign Policy Been Justified? Intervene A Mistake Dr. Tsilla Hershco Amir Rapaport Shmuel Sandler Prof. Avi Kober Prof. Hillel Frisch Prof. Efraim Inbar France has changed its view that Praise for Iron Dome may be Hopes or expectations that the Israel’s apology to Turkey is a The army’s new multi-year plan Netanyahu is not ready to close the conflicts can be resolved only deserved, yet Israel’s deterrence Egyptian military will intervene diplomatic mistake that only shows a reorganizing of priorities for door on the Ultra-Orthodox parties through diplomacy. This explains the capability has not been enhanced, in the deteriorating political enhances Turkish ambitions and the coming decade, with a focus on he was forced to leave out of the country’s recent military activism in and Israel’s enemies may initiate an and security crisis are probably weakens Israel’s deterrence. intelligence, active defense systems, coalition, and he will welcome them Libya and Mali and with regards to arms race to try and defeat it. misguided. cyber warfare, and border protection. back if their votes are needed for an Syria too. The ground forces will be downgraded agreement with the Palestinians. in importance and priority.

202 203 What Would the US Do if Israel Underwater Internet Cable 213 Defied It by Attacking the Iranian Cutting: A Neglected Aspect Twenty Years to Oslo Nuclear Weapons Program? of Cyber Warfare Prof. Efraim Inbar Dr. Max Singer Dr. Eado Hecht The failure of the If Israel strikes Iranian nuclear weapons A low-tech attack on Internet play an important role in forging facilities, the US should signal to hardware infrastructure can be a great Israeli resilience to withstand Iran that despite America’s strong crippling act of cyber warfare. Israel protracted conflict and cementing objections, it would support Israel. is vulnerable to an attack of this the country’s unwillingness to make nature and must plan accordingly. dangerous concessions. MIDDLE EAST SECURITY AND POLICY STUDIES LECTURES

98 A Strategy for Peace with 99 Israel Is Not Isolated 100 Obama’s Best Friend? the Palestinians Prof. Efraim Inbar The Alarming Evolution of US-Turkish Relations Dr. Max Singer Despite a perception to the The Palestinians refuse to accept contrary, Israel is not isolated in Dr. Ariel Cohen Israel as a Jewish state and are the international community. Shifts in Turkey’s domestic reluctant to drop their armed and Since the end of the Cold War political orientation have ideological opposition to Israel’s Israel has developed strong led to a change in Ankara’s existence. The global community ties with most United Nations perceptions of its foreign policy can oppose Palestinian denial member states. Attempts roles and capabilities. The US Mr. Uzi Rubin, a BESA Center Dr. Liad Porat, a BESA Center Dr. Uriel Abulof of of Israel’s connection to the to harm Israel through the has misunderstood and largely land; support Israel’s legitimacy; BDS (boycotts, divestments, associate and past Arrow associate, lectured in University lectured in ignored this shift, failing to missile program director, December on “The Muslim January on “Nationality and resettle Palestinian refugees sanctions) campaign have failed. understand the implications of outside of Israel; modify aid Israel’s strategic relationship lectured in December on Brotherhood in Egypt and Political Legitimacy in Light Turkey’s transformation under the “Evaluation of the Rocket Its Attitude Towards Israel,” of the Arab Spring.” programs to reduce Palestinian with the United States should AKP. A strong and comprehensive use of foreign money to support be further developed in order Battle During Operation which is the topic of his policy towards Turkey is long Pillar of Defense.” recent BESA Center study. terror; and encourage free speech to ensure Israel’s standing in the overdue. in Palestinian society. international community.

French-Israeli Security 26 101 102 The Muslim Brotherhood 27 Cooperation in the and Egypt-Israel Peace Twenty-First Century Dr. Liad Porat Tsilla Hershco This Hebrew study analyzes This Hebrew study analyzes the Muslim Brotherhood’s French-Israeli security stance towards the peace cooperation in the twenty- treaty between Egypt and first century, focusing on Israel. Dr. Ariel Cohen of the Heritage Prof. Michael Nacht of UC Dr. Michael Widlanski whether France and Israel Foundation lectured in Berkeley, former US Assistant of Bar-Ilan University cooperate or compete in February on “US-Turkey Secretary of Defense for lectured in May on “Not three areas: UAVs, missiles, Relations in the Obama Era,” Global Strategic Affairs, Just a Joke: Arab Humor and satellites. which is the topic of his recent lectured in February on “US as a Social Mirror.” BESA Center study. Cyber and Space Technology in the 21st Century.” 103 Time is on Israel's Side 104 Armed and Dangerous: Prof. Efraim Inbar Why a Rational Iran with Nuclear Weapons Poses an A survey of the balance of military power between Israel Unacceptable Risk to Israel and her enemies, of internal Prof. Steven R. David factors that influence national power – such as the economy, Iran is a rational actor that cannot social cohesiveness, and the be deterred. Iranian leaders may political system – and of Israel’s strike Israel with nuclear weapons standing in the international if they feel they have nothing to community, indicate long term lose. Thus Israel must be prepared processes that favor Israel over to launch a military strike to Dr. Bruno Tertrais of the Prof. Steven David of Johns Hopkins its regional foes. prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Foundation for Strategic University, a founding member of the Research (Paris) lectured in center’s International Academic Advisory July on “French Security and Board, lectured in June on “With Nothing to Defense Policy: Continuity Lose: The Limits of a Rational Iran,” which is and Changes.” the topic of his recent BESA Center study. Beyad Halashon Communications / www.mesh.co.il

: 514-735-3361 X North American address: 5485 Pare St., Montreal Quebec Canada H4P 1P7 TEL: 514-735-1155 FA srael 52900 I

University an G . 972-3-531-8959 x 972-3-535-9195 amat el a T F Bar-Ilan R The BESA Center Studies Strategic for Center TheBegin-Sadat to seeksUniversity contribute to Bar-Ilan at and peace East Middle of advancement the policy-relevant securityconducting research by relate subjects,they particularlystrategic as on policy security foreign of and national the to Canadian a Hecht, O. Thomas by Founded Israel. Jewish community the non- a is Center leader, dedicated institute independent partisan and minister prime Israeli memorylate the the of to president Egyptian late the and Begin Menachem Sadat. Anwar Advisory Board International and Chairman Founder Ph.D., Hecht O. Thomas Chairman Vice Saul Koschitzky, Robert Mr. Hecht, Marion Ms. Arens, Moshe Prof. Hillel, Shlomo Hon. Heft-Hecht, Riva Prof. Hecht, Sen. Levanon, Yitzhak Amb. Koschitzky, Joel Mr. Gen. Maj. Lifton, K. Robert Mr. Lieberman, I. Joseph Mr. Mulroney, Brian Hon. Rt. Matt, Daniel (res.) Greg Mr. Rosenne, Meir Amb. Reich, D. Seymour Norman Amb. Shoval, Zalman Amb. Rosshandler, Wertheim. Muzi Mr. Spector, Advisory Board Academic International University National Australian Desmond Ball, Prof. Prof. Ian Beckett, of Northampton University Prof. SAIS, Johns Hopkins Eliot Cohen, University Prof. McGill University Irwin Cotler, Prof. Johns Hopkins University R. David, Steven Prof. Prof. Yehezkel Dror, Hebrew University Hebrew Dror, Yehezkel Prof. London College King’s Freedman, Lawrence Prof. Prof. Patrick James, University of Southern Southern of University James, Patrick Prof. California University Georgetown Robert Lieber, J. Prof. of Institute Massachusetts Posen, Barry Prof. Technology Council Executive Haas, Elisha Prof. (Chairman), Gilboa Eytan Prof. Hershkowitz, Daniel Prof. Hecht, O. Thomas Dr. Zemira Prof. Levy, Daniel Prof. Inbar, Efraim Prof. Shlomo Prof. Sandler, Shmuel Prof. Mevarech, Teitelbaum. Haim Prof. Shpiro, Director Center Inbar Efraim Prof. and Bulletin Editor Affairs Director of Public Weinberg M. David Coordinator Program Koen Waxman Hava (English) Production Editor Eitan Rapps (Hebrew) Production Editor BrinerAlona Rozenman Administration Ortal Nahum [email protected] www.besacenter.org arsh arsh Professor Efraim Professor Karsh, a leading authority on Middle Eastern history and politics, has joined Begin- the Sadat Center for Strategic a as Studies senior research associate. Karsh has Prof. The

(Harvard,

, and many other global other newspapers., and many Prof. EfraimProf. Karsh academic journals, and the author of over academic over of author and the journals,

Empires Empires 2004); Center, BESA and the (Maariv

Professor Efraim K Efraim Professor Joins the BESA Center the BESA Joins Prof. Karsh been has Prof. professor a visiting Harvard at the universities, and Columbia Sorbonne, London and the School Economics; of the at servedand has associate a research as Studies for Strategic Institute International for Institute Kennan Wilsonand the Center’s published He has Studies. Russian Advanced Street op-ed Times, Wall articles The in New York Times, Times, Der Angeles London Los Journal, Spiegel 1990-1991 Conflict Gulf 1993); (Princeton, Hussein: and Saddam Biography A Political (The 1991). Press, Free Fabricating Fabricating 1999); History: The Israeli “New Historians” 1997); (Routledge, 100 scholarly articles and fifteen100 books, including Imperialism: Islamic 2010); (Yale, Betrayed Palestine The Man and War: Arafat’s 2006); A History (Yale, and its 2003) (Grove, Conquest Battle Israeli for his with War The his Man and Hebrew Arafat: version, Israel The Sand: of the Mastery for Struggle Middle East the in 1798-1923 Israel QuarterlyIsrael and He Middle East the editor of is Affairs been Middle of professor East and Mediterranean London College years, for 25 King’s at Studies serve also will and now political of a professor as University. Bar-Ilan at science