The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Twenty Years of Strategic Foresight No. 30 BULLETIN October 2013 Tectonic Changes in the Middle East INSIDE Stopping Iran’s Nuclear Drive Israeli-Palestinian BESA Center associates Diplomacy: discuss the “Arab Spring,” Whereto? American, Islamic earthquakes, European, Asian, Indian, and Turkish democracy and security Security Challenges New Books and Policy Papers Benjamin Netanyahu at the BESA Center ARab SPRing OR Islamic EARthQuaKE? BESA Center Publishes Book on the Tectonic Changes in the Middle East Eight experts from the Begin-Sadat Center for Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh, Outgoing IDF Strategic Studies and other Israeli institutes Deputy Chief of Staff: "Israel's Sinai and collaborated to publish a book this year on the Syrian Borders Have Become No-Man's tectonic changes in the Arab Middle East. Lands, with Many The book, edited by Prof. Efraim Inbar, was published Sophisticated in Hebrew as Arab Spring? Israel, the World and the Changing Region (Yediot Ahronot Books, February Weapons on the 2013), and in English as The Arab Spring, Democracy Loose". and Security: Domestic and Regional Ramifications (Routledge: BESA Studies in International Security, March 2013). Publication of the book was sponsored by the Tikva Foundation. 2 3 The wide- terrorist militias,” he Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor of Haifa the US looked the other way, in other ranging and added. University (“Democratization in the Maj. Gen. Yair Naveh cases it applied heavy diplomatic exhaustive Middle East”) said that the rapid pressure, and in one case it intervened volumes are Naveh also warned sequence of popular Arab uprisings Prof. Hillel Frisch of the BESA Center dozen Arab states, probably because militarily. This inconsistency damages the first of that because of the shows the inter-connectedness of (“The Emerging Middle East Balance the residents of these countries can US standing in the Middle East, he said. their kind incredible missile the Arab world. He pointed to the of Power”) said that despite the ouster see that upheavals are costly, painful anywhere in stockpiles in the of four Arab rulers, the Muslim cold and don’t always lead to good results. Dr. Boaz Ganor of the International the world. They hands of Hamas and war between the American-Saudi- Institute for Counter-Terrorism at evaluate the Hezbollah, “in a next Gulf state alliance and the Iranian- Prof. Eytan Gilboa of the BESA Center the IDC Herzliya (“The Challenge of Arab upheavals war, the Israeli home Hizballah axis will continue to prevail (“The United States and the Arab Terrorism”) said that struggles within convulsing front, including Tel as a main feature of Mideast politics. Spring”) presented a critical analysis of Arab countries could aggravate the Middle East, consider their Aviv, will be under attack even before Meanwhile, the decreasing stature of American policies towards uprisings in the terrorist threat to Israel in the implications of the regional volatility soldiers will engage the enemy on the many of Arab states – mainly Egypt – several states including Egypt, Yemen, short run (destabilization of Arab for Israel and its chances to live northern and southern battlefronts.” will prove a boon to Turkey and Iran. Bahrain, Libya, and Syria. He found a governments may help facilitate cross- peacefully in the region, and evaluate He also noted that the revolutions considerable gap between American border terrorist attacks against Israel), the implications of the unrest for Naveh emphasized that Israel has to have not spread to more than one rhetoric and actions. In some cases medium term (new Arab governments regional and global security. take very seriously Iranian rhetoric about destroying Israel. “We do not In March, the BESA Center held a have the privilege of ignoring this conference to mark publication of the or downplaying such statements. In Prof. Gabriel Ben-Dor new books, headlined by Maj. Gen. past generations, there were those Yair Naveh, Outgoing IDF Deputy who ignored genocidal statement of Chief of Staff. “Israel’s Sinai and Syrian intention of this type, and the Jewish growing importance of the “Arab borders have become no-man’s People paid for this dearly. This is all street,” the rise of political Islam, the lands, with unprecedented amounts the more true when we’re talking salience of Salafis and jihadists in the of sophisticated weapons flooding about somebody building nuclear revolutions, the cross-border nature into the area,” he warned. “While weapons.” of the strife, the failure of almost Israel does not want to intervene all Arab state institutions, and the in the Arab upheavals around us in At the conference, each of the book worsening Shia-Shiite divide. any way, the IDF will act to interdict chapter authors reviewed his primary Prof. Hillel Frisch Prof. Eytan Gilboa Dr. Boaz Ganor the transfer of strategic weapons to findings. Remembering Center Associates ARab SPRing OR Islamic EARthQuaKE? Bonen, Kanovsky, and Rotem On its twentieth anniversary, the BESA Center remembers three associates who were among its founders. Maj. Gen. Avraham Rotem, who passed away in 2006, was a decorated twenty-year veteran of the Israel Defense Forces. He was head of the army’s training department and a member of the General Staff. In the 1973 war he was a leading tank commander on the Golan Heights, and received the IDF’s highest award for bravery. After retirement from active duty, Rotem became director of strategic planning at Rafael, the Defense Ministry’s weapons development authority. At the BESA Center he specialized in IDF force structure and the future Mideast battlefield. In 2007, the center held a first conference in his memory, which was addressed by then-defense minister and former IDF chief-of-staff Lt. Gen. (res.) Ehud Barak, the IDF chief-of-staff may find themselves led by terrorist and Israel must quickly crush any Prof. Efraim Inbar of the BESA Center Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, then-Commander of the IDF Colleges Maj. Gen. organizations to military conflict with signs of unrest. ("Strategic Implications for Israel") Gershon Hacohen, and then-OC IDF Manpower Maj. Gen. Elazar Stern. Israel), and long term (establishment assessed the major implications 4 of new Islamist regimes across Dr. Gil Feiler of the BESA Center (“Arab for Israel’s national security of the 5 the Arab world may lead to the World Economic Situation”) explored weakening of Arab states, changes emergence of new jihadist terrorist the economic causes and effects in the regional balance of power, organizations). of the different Arab upheavals and America’s apparent retreat from the region. He Dr. Zeev Bonen, who passed away in 2010, was for forty years focused on the legendary president and director-general of Rafael. He is new concerns credited with developing Israel's advanced missile industry. At that threaten the BESA Center he specialized in weapons technologies and Israel’s national military strategies, and the defense industries. He received a security, Ph.D. from Cambridge University, taught at Haifa University among them and the IDF National Defense College, served as an advisor to heightened the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and as risks of rapid research director for the Ministry of Industry’s Chief Scientist. change and strategic surprises, increased Prof. Alexander Bligh Dr. Gil Feiler Prof. Shmuel Sandler terrorist activity, reduced Prof. Eliyahu Kanovsky, who passed away in 2010, was known internationally deterrence, as the definitive authority on OPEC and Middle East oil politics, and the Prof. Alexander Bligh of Ariel and found similarities among growing regional isolation and the economies of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran. University (“The Arab Spring and countries such as capital flight, Iranian nuclear threat. A graduate of Columbia University, he served as a professor of economics at Palestinian Apathy”) noted that youth unemployment, widespread while many countries in the Middle corruption, and income disparity. Bar-Ilan University, a fellow at Harvard University’s Center for Middle Eastern East have been struggling with old Studies and at Columbia University’s Middle East Institute. Among his many regimes, the Palestinian population Prof. Shmuel Sandler of the BESA monographs were Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf War: Accelerating has not indicated any opposition to Center ("Israel and the Arab Spring") OPEC’s Demise; The Economy of Saudi Arabia: Troubled Present, Grim Future; and its leaders – the Palestinian Authority analyzed the interface between Israeli Iran’s Economic Morass. For the BESA Center, Prof. Kanovsky wrote a number in the West Bank and Hamas in the domestic and international politics of important studies which critiqued the dominant “economic advancement Gaza Strip. However, he said, the in light of the Arab uprisings, and the will bring peace” paradigm, including The Forgotten Dimension: Economic status quo in the territories is not impact on Israeli public opinion of the Developments in Arab Countries and their Possible Impact on Peace Agreement, likely to remain unchanged for long, unrest. and Assessing the Mideast Peace Economic Dividend. COUNTERING IRAN BESA Center International Academic Advisory Board Members Warn that Iran's Nuclear Drive Must be Stopped Prof. Steven David: "Iran with Nuclear Weapons Poses an Unacceptable Risk to Israel" itself on the brink of being toppled years of trying, economic sanctions from within. Facing the end of their have yet to bring Iran to its knees, Prof. Yehezkel Dror: rule, and possibly their lives, Iranian and a military strike promises only leaders, fully rational but with to leave Iran with the ability to “Israel must destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities nothing to lose, might choose to lash make more nuclear weapons later out against Israel in a parting shot for while unleashing catastrophic and simultaneously launch a comprehensive posterity.” consequences in its wake. Coping Prof.