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Knight Frank Valuations August 2015 Sydney Office Market Yield Trend Analysis in Historical Context

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Knight Frank Valuations August 2015 Sydney Office Market Yield Trend Analysis in Historical Context Knight Frank Valuations August 2015 Sydney Office Market Yield Trend Analysis in Historical Context The purpose of this paper is to provide some context around historical yield trends in the Sydney CBD and suburban office markets over the last 12-15 years (depending upon the extent of the data between markets). It also includes an approximate measure of standard deviation over the analysed period in an attempt to define trading bands and volatility in the respective markets analysed. This paper was originally drafted prior to the IPG/CIC transaction. Given the initial analysis of this transaction has now been undertaken by Knight Frank Valuations (as distributed 6th August), we have included the general parameters indicated by this transaction within our analysis. KEY POINTS – SYDNEY CBD - Prior to the IPG sale, the prime CBD market indicated yield compression of 40 - 50 basis points over 2014/2015. The IPG portfolio sale indicates further compression, although the unique portfolio aspects need to be considered (as discussed within our market update paper 6th August). - Yields for well located secondary stock in the Sydney CBD have compressed by 50-75 basis points over the past 6-12 months. - Prime and secondary stock within the Sydney CBD now trading below their 10 year average. The IPG sale in particular would tend to indicate that the prime market is now at or close to 2007 peak levels. - Only the Sydney secondary market remains trading within its longer term standard deviation, although is expected to breach this in the near term. - Yield convergence between prime and secondary is gaining initial momentum, but remains far from the margins seen at previous 2007 peak levels. - Yield compression is likely to be strongest in the shorter term within the A-grade and secondary markets. A-grade compression has partly been evidenced by the recent IPG sale and other assets reportedly coming to the market (i.e. 420 George Street) in the near future will be monitored closely. Where are we in the Cycle? The question of where we are in the cycle is one of the leading questions in the market at present. Whilst every cycle differs with regard to its drivers, a charting of trends and previous cycles can provide some context as to where we are at today. Furthermore if sufficient data is available over these cycles, some form of analysis can then be undertaken which shows the extent of peak to trough movements, the volatility of the markets on the downside and upside, and the approximate standard deviation or variation around the mean/average. Outlined within are graphs relating to various Sydney markets with data generally extending back 12-15 years depending upon the market. The analysis within includes reference to the IPG sales as a grouping of sales given that individual asset pricing has not been disclosed, although has been analysed by Knight Frank Valuations. Knight Frank Valuations August 2015 Sydney Office Market Yield Trend Analysis in Historical Context Prime Sydney CBD (2000-2015) Prime Sydney CBD Office Yields - Knight Frank Valuations 8.50% 8.00% 35 Clarence 9 Castlereagh 7.50% 60 Martin Place (50%) 15 year average - 6.75% 201 Kent Citigroup Centre 320 Pitt 2 Market 7 Macquarie Pl Piccadily Tower* 259 George 52 Martin Pl 1 Martin Place 135 King 7.00% 77 King 20 Bridge St 388 George 400 George 20 Hunter 35 Clarence Chifley Tower 161 Castlereagh Aurora Place GPT/GMT 1 O'Connell Aurora Place 8 Chifley NAB House 6.50% Darling Park (20%) 161 Castlereagh Grosvenor Place 126 Phillip 126 Phillip 6.00% 275 Kent Street Goldfields 52 Martin Place 161 Castlereagh 5.50% IPT Portfolio - Overall Portfolio Lattitude East 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Note: This chart does not include every sale only representative trend sales * Piccadilly Tower reflects apportionment from total purchase price Standard deviation 15 year Standard Deviation Current Yield Range v 15 year average Trading within Standard Avg. Yield (approx.) (trading above or below) Deviation? 6.75% +/-0.4% Was trading at around 0.50%-0.75% below Was bordering standard deviation (+/-40 basis points around the average, although this is considered to prior to IPG sale. Has now shifted average reflecting a band of have shifted to around 1.0% - 1.25% outside and is trading below the 6.35%-7.15%) following IPG deal. deviation on the upside. Trend line indicates that the “prime” market (defined as Premium and A-grade) was trending on the boundaries of its 15 year standard deviation prior to the IPG sale. However, the yield range has now shifted well outside the standard deviation following the IPG sale. A-grade has firmed following the IPG sale, although it is Premium that is now trading at or close to 2007 levels (see Premium data following). Defining an accurate yield range for A-grade stock has been complicated by the IPG sale. We expect A-grade to show quite significant compression post the IPG sale. Along with the “premium” market, this grade tends to have an upper/softer yield trading parameter in poor investment markets generally within the standard deviation (indicating less downside risk than the secondary market – which would be expected). Furthermore it spends less time trading within the correction zone (i.e. above its 10 year average), albeit the majority of transactions actually occur within these periods. Knight Frank Valuations August 2015 Sydney Office Market Yield Trend Analysis in Historical Context Premium Sydney CBD (2000-2015) Premium Sydney CBD Office Yields - Knight Frank Valuations 8.00% 8.00% 7.50% 7.50% Citigroup Centre 7.00% 7.00% 15 year average - 6.3% 161 Castlereagh Aurora Place Chifley Tower 8 Chifley Aurora Place Darling Park (80%) GPT/GMT 6.50% Grosvenor Place 6.50% 161 Castlereagh Darling Park (20%) 126 Phillip 126 Phillip 6.00% 275 Kent Street 6.00% 161 Castlereagh IPT Portfolio - Overall Portfolio 5.50% 5.50% Latitude East IPT Portfolio - Prime "Trophy" Assets 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% 4.50% Sep-99 Aug-00 Aug-01 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Note: This chart does not include every sale only representative trend sales Standard deviation * Piccadilly Tower reflects apportionment from total purchase price 15 year Standard Deviation Current Yield Range v 15 year average Trading within Standard Deviation? Avg. Yield (approx.) (trading above or below) 6.30% +/-0.4% Was trading at around 0.50%-0.75% below Prior to the IPG sale the premium (+/-40 basis points around the average, although this is considered to market was trading outside the standard average reflecting a band have shifted to around 1.25% following IPG deviation on the upside. This has been of 5.9%-6.7%) deal. further extended by the IPG sale and levels are now at or close to 2007. Assuming a current yield range for Premium stock of 5.0% - 5.25%, the Premium market is considered to be trading on the upside, well outside of its 15 year standard deviation and close to or at 2007 levels. Similar to the “prime” market, the premium market has a lower standard deviation than the secondary markets (which again, would be expected). Along with the overall “prime” market, this grade tends to have an upper/softer yield trading parameter in poor investment markets generally within the standard deviation (indicating less downside risk). Furthermore it spends less time trading above its 10 year average, albeit the majority of transactions actually occur within these periods. Tends to re-rate more sharply in market upswings. Lesser turnover volume in strong investment markets does tend to make accurate yield assessment more difficult. Due the general absence of premium sales in a strong investment market, typically the premium market will reflect valuations at tighter/lower yields than the most recent premium sales based upon compression in other grades. The IPG sale does provide an opportunity for some benchmarking, although consideration also needs to be given to the portfolio nature of the sale. Knight Frank Valuations August 2015 Sydney Office Market Yield Trend Analysis in Historical Context Secondary Sydney CBD(2000-2015) Secondary Sydney CBD Office Yields - Knight Frank Valuations 10.00% 9.50% 1 York 59 Goulburn 9.00% 89 York 286 Sussex 117 Clarence 50 Margaret 233 Castlereagh 8.50% 15 year average - 7.5% 333 Kent 121 Harrington 55 Clarence 6-10 O'Connell 234 Sussex Centennial Plaza 171 Clarence 59 Goulburn 130 Elizabeth 50 Carrington 8.00% 309 George 154-160 Sussex 333 Kent 80 Clarence 140 Sussex 10 Bridge 400 Kent 66 Goulburn 66 Hunter 80 Clarence 10 Barrack 10 Bridge 120 Sussex 8 Spring 6-10 O'Connell 7.50% 107 Pitt 171 Clarence 97-99 Bathurst 66 Clarence 179 Elizabeth 60 Carrington 66-68 Goulburn 50 Carrington 400 Kent 44 Martin Place 155 George 7.00% 333 George 175 Liverpool 50 Pitt 233 Castlereagh 210 & 220 George 37-49 Pitt 6.50% 75 Elizabeth 309 George 345 George 130 Elizabeth 6.00% 60 Carrington 280 George 5.50% 227 Elizabeth 130 Pitt 10 Barrack 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Standard deviation Note: This chart does not include every secondary sale only representative trend sales 15 year Standard Deviation Current Yield Range v 15 year Trading within Standard Avg.
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