Triumvirate 2020 Princeton Diplomatic Invitational 2019 Triumvirate 2020: People’s Republic of China Chair: Aaron Sobel Director: Scott Overbey 1 Triumvirate 2020 Contents Contents ................................................................................................................................... 2 Letters from the Chair and Crisis Director ......................................................................... 3 Committee Description ......................................................................................................... 4 United States: The end of Pax-Americana .......................................................................... 5 Russian Federation: Imperial Restoration ........................................................................... 6 China: The Middle Kingdom also rises ............................................................................... 7 The Arsenal of Uncertainty: Warfare in the 21st Century .................................................. 8 Cyberspace: A new domain ............................................................................................... 8 Intelligence Gathering: Of Chips and Men ..................................................................... 9 Space: Days of Future Past .............................................................................................. 11 Questions to Consider ......................................................................................................... 13 Character List United States ................................................................................................ 14 Character List Russian Federation ...................................................................................... 20 Character List People’s Republic of China ........................................................................ 27 Citations ................................................................................................................................. 33 2 Triumvirate 2020 Letters from the Chair and Crisis Director Dear Delegates, Hi there! I’m Aaron, and I’m a senior in Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. Although originally from Fairfax, VA, I spent a good chunk of my childhood in Manilla, Philippines, which has made me particularly interested in Southeast Asia. This means I’m looking forward to having our committee serve as the culmination of my Model UN experience. I’ve been involved in PDI since its conception, and I was the Chargé D'Affaires for PMUNC, our high- school equivalent. Outside of Model UN, I’m also involved in Mock Trial (to diversify my activities!), I am a public defender for students accused of violating Princeton’s Honor Code, and I play a really mediocre game of pool. I’m excited to spend the last fleeting months of my Princeton experience at this committee. Regards, Aaron Sobel Dear Delegates, Welcome to PDI! My name is Scott Overbey, and I’m a sophomore at Princeton studying Political Economy from Cincinnati, Ohio. I’m greatly interested in China and its economy, especially its interaction with international trade through modern efforts like One Belt One Road and the current trade war between our two countries. I actually didn’t start doing Model UN until I got to college, so thank you to Nick Jain (one of Princeton’s captains) for convincing me to try it out. I have participated in many practice committees within the Princeton team, and I competed last year for the first time at NYU, then last fall at Columbia and Georgetown. When it comes to academics, I am incredibly interested in poverty and inequality in the United States, especially when concerning housing and welfare reform. I also have an unhealthy addiction to following American politics, so hit me up outside of committee if you want to discuss anything going on in DC or around the nation. Lastly, if you want to contact me with any questions, or anything else, I’m available at [email protected] and 513-600-1580. I can’t wait to meet everyone, and I’m hoping for a great committee! Best, Scott Overbey 3 Triumvirate 2020 Committee Description Welcome to 2020. Gathered here today are representatives from the three most powerful single states on Earth, the new Great Powers. As the era of Pax-Americana begins to recede, once again, global empires emerge on the global stage to compete for dominance. The United States, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China are gathered here in the First Triumvirate talks. The purpose of these talks is twofold. To establish guidelines on the technology in the domains of space and cyberspace, critical in the days to come. And to set a precedent for the future multi-polar world, populated by Great Powers vying for influence, control and prestige. The focus of this committee will be regulating the weapons of the 21st century. Today, more than ever, the weapons of war are capable of not only lethality, but disrupting civilian life and economies in seconds. Cyberwarfare, disruption of satellites and the ever-present threat of nuclear weapons all exist in the arsenals of the Triumvirate. Regulating these weapons and establishing a code of Great Power negotiation for the 21st Century is essential in maintaining peace in an uncertain, climate-change afflicted future. Establishing a model for future Great Power negotiations, similar to those in the 19th century Concert of Europe. The United States, Russia and China are the current Great Powers, but there are other potential contenders and aspiring powers. Effective policy could lead to a peaceful diplomatic future for all mankind. 4 Triumvirate 2020 United States: The end of Pax-Americana The United States has been the global leader in politics, economy and culture since 1991. In these thirty years, the United States has not been challenged by a near-peer global adversary. Today however the US is challenged on all fronts. American interests are global and diverse, there are American embassies and soldiers in almost every nation on Earth. American aircraft carriers patrol the world’s seas, American satellites in space provide navigation to billions of people. American films are playing in global cinemas, while American companies provide 24% of global GDP1. The United States is the single strongest Great Power in human history. But its days may be numbered. Most of the international institutions established at the end of the Second World War, are centered on American financial systems and the US order. The United Nations, World Bank and the dollar are cornerstones of post-war order. The Soviet Union was a competing Great Power, with power on par with that of the US. But even it was content with, for the most part, maintaining good relations with its rival and institutions. Today however, American agreements are under threat. The United States has enjoyed peace, be it through policy, or peace through superior firepower. With the advent of comparable powers, the United States is left in a compromising position. United States power has been seen as largely holding global peace together2. With no current set policy to deal with Great Power competition, the United States needs to adapt quickly, or the brief interval of relative peace may soon come to an end in a contentious world of rival global powers. 1 Gramer, “Infographic.” 2 Glickman, “Back to the Future.” 5 Triumvirate 2020 Russian Federation: Imperial Restoration The longest lasting modern Great Power, Russia has been on the global stage since the time of Peter the Great in the late 1600’s. Russian soldiers pushed Napoleon back to Paris, Russian diplomats negotiated the original Concert of Europe. Russian was the second global lingua franca for the second half of the 20th Century from Berlin to Pyongyang. With the Soviet collapse, Russia was left with her empire in ruin, war machines and vast industrial concerns left to rot, her military capabilities rapidly deteriorating. Russia’s rebuilt military and careful maneuvering have placed it back on top of the global order. Russia maintains the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and possesses the second most powerful military3. As Alexander III stated, Russia has two trustworthy allies: her Army and Navy. Russia’s military capabilities have grown dramatically. State analysts took careful note of the shortcomings of Soviet doctrine and equipment in Chechnya and Georgia. The modern Russian military is a highly capable, lethal force, with advanced weapons on the ground, sea in the air, space and cyberspace. The 2015 intervention in Syria proves Russia has become a Great Power capable of projecting strength abroad4. For Russia, the United States could be both an ally and a threat. Russian and American interests in counter-terrorism converge, but diverge on the question of Eastern Europe’s entry into the Western sphere of influence. Modern Russian industry is based on the export of fuel and raw materials, used as a political weapon to influence neighbors. Whether or not Russia will thrive, who it will ally with for the days ahead, remains to be seen. 3 “2018 Russia Military Strength.” 4 “2018 Russia Military Strength.” 6 Triumvirate 2020 China: The Middle Kingdom also rises China has been at the center of global foreign policy discussion for the past 20 years. Its rise is forecast to come to peak in this decade as it overtakes the United States as the number one economy globally. China has 18% of the world’s population, over 1.4 billion people5. This makes it a massive market