Dead and Alive: Beliefs in Contradictory Conspiracy Theories

Social Psychological and Personality Science 00(0) 1-7 Dead and Alive: Beliefs in Contradictory ª The Author(s) 2011 Reprints and permission: Conspiracy Theories sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/1948550611434786 http://spps.sagepub.com Michael J. Wood1, Karen M. Douglas1, and Robbie M. Sutton1 Abstract Conspiracy theories can form a monological belief system: A self-sustaining worldview comprised of a network of mutually supportive beliefs. The present research shows that even mutually incompatible conspiracy theories are positively correlated in endorsement. In Study 1 (n ¼ 137), the more participants believed that Princess Diana faked her own death, the more they believed that she was murdered. In Study 2 (n ¼ 102), the more participants believed that Osama Bin Laden was already dead when U.S. special forces raided his compound in Pakistan, the more they believed he is still alive. Hierarchical regression models showed that mutually incompatible conspiracy theories are positively associated because both are associated with the view that the authorities are engaged in a cover-up (Study 2). The monological nature of conspiracy belief appears to be driven not by conspiracy theories directly supporting one another but by broader beliefs supporting conspiracy theories in general. Keywords conspiracy theories, conspiracism, contradiction, explanatory coherence A conspiracy theory is defined as a proposed plot by powerful Chamorro-Premuzic, & Furnham, 2010; Swami et al., 2011). people or organizations working together in secret to For instance, someone who believes that the American govern- accomplish some (usually sinister) goal (Coady, 2006; Douglas ment was behind the 9/11 attacks is very likely to also believe & Sutton, 2008; Goertzel, 1994). Popular contemporary exam- that Princess Diana was deliberately assassinated. One pro- ples include the theory that the 9/11 attacks were planned and posed explanation for this connection is that beliefs in conspi- carried out by elements within the American government (Kay, racy theories somehow support one another (Goertzel, 1994). 2011) and the belief that evidence of a causal link between Even though the perpetrators may be different in each case, the autism and childhood vaccination is being suppressed by an fact that one massive, sinister conspiracy could be successfully unscrupulous medical industry (Goertzel, 2010). Conspiracy executed in near-perfect secrecy suggests that many such plots theories are not by definition false; indeed, many real conspira- are possible. Over time, the view of the world as a place ruled cies have come to light over the years. Suspicions of President by conspiracies can lead to conspiracy becoming the default Nixon’s involvement in a burglary at the headquarters of the explanation for any given event—a unitary, closed-off world- Democratic National Committee began as a seemingly outland- view in which beliefs come together in a mutually supportive ish conspiracy theory but turned out to be true (Bale, 2007). network known as a monological belief system (Clarke, 2002; However, conspiracy beliefs, even when wrong, are notor- Goertzel, 1994; Swami et al., 2010, 2011). iously resistant to falsification, and can take on the appearance However, some conspiracy theories emphatically do not of a ‘‘degenerating research program’’ (Clarke, 2002, p. 136), support one another; indeed, many provide mutually contradic- with new layers of conspiracy being added to rationalize each tory explanations for the same event. These contradictions new piece of disconfirming evidence. among conspiracy theories are the focus of the present article. Spurred in part by the growth of new media, conspiracism For instance, the theories surrounding the death of Princess has become a major subcultural phenomenon. This shift has not Diana vary widely; some claim that she was killed by MI6, oth- gone unnoticed in academia. In recent decades, there has been ers allege that she was killed by Mohammed al-Fayed’s an explosion of research into the psychology of belief in conspiracy theories. Much of this research interest has focused on the individual correlates of conspiracy belief, but perhaps 1 University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom the most consistent finding in the work on the psychology of Corresponding Author: conspiracy theories is that belief in a particular theory is Michael J. Wood, School of Psychology–Keynes College, University of Kent, strongly predicted by belief in others—even ostensibly unre- Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP, United Kingdom lated ones (Douglas & Sutton, 2008; Goertzel, 1994; Swami, Email: [email protected] 2 Social Psychological and Personality Science 00(0) business enemies, still others that she faked her own death. in turn excite or inhibit one another depending on whether they How does a conspiracy-believing observer reconcile the pres- are mutually coherent or contradictory. This process of excita- ence of these competing, mutually contradictory accounts? If tion and inhibition continues until the system reaches a stable beliefs in conspiracy theories are correlated with one another equilibrium, at which point the highly activated explanations because the theories are in direct agreement, one would not are accepted and those with little activation are discarded. Acti- expect reliable correlations between beliefs in theories that vation has been shown to flow the other way, as well: Not only are mutually exclusive. do evidence and higher-order knowledge structures change In the present research, we seek to determine whether the one’s perception of explanations, emerging conclusions in the coherence of the conspiracist belief system is driven not by network also change perceptions of evidence and alter broad direct relationships among individual theories, but by agree- worldviews (Read et al., 2003; Read & Miller, 1993). ment between individual theories and higher-order beliefs For instance, imagine that someone is heavily invested in about the world. For instance, the idea that authorities are conspiracism and strongly believes in a wide variety of differ- engaged in motivated deception of the public would be a cor- ent conspiracy theories. A view of authority as fundamentally nerstone of conspiracist thinking due to its centrality in conspi- deceptive is coherent with all of these theories, and as such racy theories. Someone who believes in a significant number of draws activation from them until it becomes a strongly held conspiracy theories would naturally begin to see authorities as belief in itself. When a novel conspiracy theory is presented, fundamentally deceptive, and new conspiracy theories would it immediately seems more credible because it agrees with this seem more plausible in light of that belief (Read, Snow, & now strongly held view and disagrees with the officially Simon, 2003; Simon, Snow, & Read, 2004). Indeed, the two endorsed narrative. Such higher-order beliefs may be so conspiracy theories mentioned above—an autism/vaccine strongly held that any conspiracy theory that stands in opposi- connection and 9/11 as an inside job—both revolve around tion to the official narrative will gain some degree of endorse- that central proposition. Likewise, whether one believes that ment from someone who holds a conspiracist worldview, even Princess Diana was killed by MI6 or Mohammed Al-Fayed’s if it directly contradicts other conspiracy theories that they business enemies, belief in a cover-up would support (and be also find credible. In other words, a natural consequence of supported by) both theories. In spite of that, the two theories the explanatory coherence approach to social explanation is contradict each other. Would it be possible for their contradic- an instantiation of the principle ‘‘the enemy of my enemy is tion to be overruled by their coherence with a broader con- my friend.’’ spiracist worldview, such that they display a positive Indeed, this is a principle found explicitly in Heider’s (1958) correlation in endorsement? theory of psychological balance, which shares a considerable Some literature on stereotyping suggests that coherence with common ground with explanatory coherence. In balance the- strongly held worldviews may well be sufficient to overwhelm ory, perceptions of an object or social actor are affected by its contradictions between individual beliefs. Adorno, Frenkel- relationship with other actors about which opinions already Brunswik, Levinson, & Sanford (1950) found strong positive exist. For instance, people’s evaluations of a novel product correlations in endorsement between contradictory negative endorsed by a known celebrity are more positive if they view stereotypes of Jews, such that highly prejudiced participants the celebrity positively, or more negative if their views of the found them to be both too isolated from the rest of society and celebrity are negative. In the case of conspiracy theories, we too eager to participate in it. Adorno proposed that this paradox- propose that a similar mechanism is at work: Officials are seen ical perception has its roots in ‘‘a relatively blind hostility which as deceptive, perhaps even actively malevolent, so any expla- is reflected in the stereotypy, self-contradiction, and destructive- nation that they endorse is at a disadvantage, while alternative ness’’ of anti-Jewish stereotyping (p. 76). In spite of their contra- explanations are more credible from the start. Explanatory dictory nature, both stereotypes drew enough credibility from coherence

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