Small Worlds and Local Strongholds in Canadian Federal Politics: Deviations from General Patterns of Party Support in the 2000 Election Munroe Eagles (SUNY – Buffalo)
[email protected] and R.K. Carty (UBC)
[email protected] Abstract It is striking that in all parties some candidates manage to enjoy local support that is considerably greater than their party's average performance in similar electoral districts. In this paper we identify who these candidates were in 2000 and explore the basis of their success. We begin by developing an ecological model that incorporates a range of socio- demographic, economic, political, and geographic variables to estimate the general pattern of support for each party. The ten most highly positive residuals (the difference between the actual level of party support and that predicted by the model) identify candidates and ridings which did significantly better than they should have. The magnitude of these deviations, and the variety of plausible explanations for them, draw attention to the complexity of Canadian election campaigns, and remind us of the need to incorporate influences from different geographic scales (including the local) if we are to fully understand electoral processes and outcomes. Paper prepared for the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, May 30 – June 1st, 2003. Introduction Conventional accounts of federal elections and campaigns in Canada emphasize the importance of national factors in the determination of election outcomes. National party offices develop elaborate marketing schemes and distribute these to their candidates, infusing a national message in all corners of the country (Bell and Fletcher, 1991).