Modelling Freight Transport Modelling Freight Transport

Modelling Freight Transport Modelling Freight Transport Edited by Lo´rańt Tavasszy Delft University of Technology The Netherlands Gerard de Jong Institute for Transport Studies University of Leeds, UK AMSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON • NEW YORK • OXFORD PARIS • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO Elsevier 32 Jamestown Road, London NW1 7BY 225 Wyman Street, Waltham, MA 02451, USA First Edition 2014 Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. 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British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN: 978-0-12-410400-6 For information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at store.elsevier.com List of Contributors Shama Campbell Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment, and the VREF’s Center of Excellence for Sustainable Urban Freight Systems, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA François Combes Universite´ Paris-Est, LVMT, UMR T9403 ENPC IFSTTAR UMLV, Marne-La-Valleé, Cedex, France Antonio Comi Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Rome, Italy Carlos Gonza´lez-Calderoń Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment, and the VREF’s Center of Excellence for Sustainable Urban Freight Systems, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA Igor Davydenko TNO, Delft and Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Gerard de Jong Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK; Significance BV, The Hague, The Netherlands; and Centre for Transport Studies, VTI/KTH, Stockholm, Sweden Rick Donnelly Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc., Albuquerque, NM, USA Hanno Friedrich Technical University Darmstadt, Germany Jose´ Holguıń-Veras Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment, and the VREF’s Center of Excellence for Sustainable Urban Freight Systems, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA Olga Ivanova Dutch Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Strategy and Policy, The Netherlands xii List of contributors Miguel Jaller Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment, and the VREF’s Center of Excellence for Sustainable Urban Freight Systems, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA Catherine T. Lawson Department of Geography and Planning University at Albany, Albany, NY, USA Francesco Russo Facolta` di Ingegneria, Universita` Mediterranea di Reggio Calabria, Reggio Calabria (RC), Italy IvańSańchez-Dıáz Center for Infrastructure, Transportation, and the Environment, and the VREF’s Center of Excellence for Sustainable Urban Freight Systems, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY, USA Lo´rańt Tavasszy TNO, Delft and Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands 1 Introduction Lo´rańt Tavasszya and Gerard de Jongb aTNO, Delft and Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands bInstitute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK; Significance BV, The Hague, The Netherlands; and Centre for Transport Studies, VTI/KTH, Stockholm, Sweden 1.1 Background and Objectives Freight transport is an essential part of our economy as it fulfils a unique service within supply chains, bridging the distances between spatially separated places of supply and demand. As is the case with passenger transport, accessibility of places for freight is vital or the economic development of society. Freight transport flows have been growing continuously in the past, due to an increase in population, fall- ing trade barriers and declining transport costs. In addition, the growth of freight flows is propelled by increasing consumption levels and the customisation of products and services. This growth has been facilitated by major infrastructure exten- sions including roads, railways, waterways, ports and storage and transhipment activities. In recent decades, however, freight flows have also become an area of concern to public policy in a very different way. This relates to the aim of protect- ing the environment from the negative side effects (e.g. health-related local emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, traffic accidents) of freight transport growth, as is also the case in passenger transport. Our final goal with this book is to disseminate better tools to evaluate freight transport policies. We give a concise description of the state of the art of mathematical models of the freight transport system, focussing mainly on areas where it deviates from passenger transport models. Such mathematical models can support freight transport policy design in different ways, including: G Description of flows in a base year and explanation of the drivers of freight transport, G Forecasting of flows or exploration of alternative futures, G Performance assessment of freight systems, e.g. for cost-benefit analysis, G Design and optimisation of freight systems. Freight transport models have been around in transport research since the early 1960s, and appeared more or less in parallel with passenger transport models. Despite the fact that the underlying economic and statistical theories are similar and date back much further, the application and development of freight models Modelling Freight Transport. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-410400-6.00001-X © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 2 Modelling Freight Transport took place much more slowly. This was partly due to the above-mentioned late appearance of freight transport as a major area of public policy. More importantly, perhaps, it was the lack of data, or appropriate behavioural or applied economic theory that distinguished the drivers of freight transport from those of passenger transport. In the 1970s, freight was largely treated by the research community in a simplistic way, as a separate class of passengers, leaning on the same theoretical underpinning and the same applied models. At present, in the community of practitioners, it largely still is. In the meantime, however, new freight-related disciplines have emerged, like logistics and supply chain management, aiming at improving firm logistics, according to principles of optimisation of service levels and minimi- sation of costs. Taking these new disciplines as the basis for developing a theoretical underpinning of freight transport models, a whole generation of new freight modelling approaches developed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Surprisingly, these approaches have hardly made it beyond the scientific literature, due to heavy data requirements or simply a lack of demand by policy makers. In current times, with increasing pressure on government to effectively deal with growing freight flows, the demand is increasing, however, and the available concepts deserve to be more widely known and used. 1.2 Conceptual Framework for Freight Decisions We will focus on the development of descriptive, empirical models that are built on theories of freight systems behaviour and can be statistically calibrated and vali- dated. The first questions we ask when we go into the behaviour of the actors in the freight system is who the decision-makers are, what decisions they take and how (through which markets) they affect the functioning of the freight transport system. As we are concerned with long-term effects of transport policy, we also need to focus on changes in the freight transport system on the longer term. The strategic decisions in freight transport involve major investments in assets, such as produc- tion plants, are related to longer design or use cycles (e.g. patents and licences) and cannot be reviewed frequently (e.g. because of longer-term

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