With Special Emphasis on Grocery Distribution
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32 K C\c^0 TRANSPORT AND SUSTAINABILITY Q J[J - WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON GROCERY DISTRIBUTION Kaj J0rgensen . c \3 RAPPORT R-028 1998 ISSN 1396-4011 ISBN 87-7877-029-7 INSTITUT FOR BYGNINGER OG ENERGI DANMARKS TEKNISKE UNIVERSITET IBE Author: Kaj Jorgensen Department of Buildings and Energy Technical University of Denmark Building 118, DK-2800 Lyngby Phone: (+45) 45 25 19 57 Fax: (+45) 45 93 44 30 Print: Lyngby, Denmark Date: December 1997 DISCLAIMER Portions of this document may be illegible in electronic image products. Images are produced from the best available original document. Preface This report is a slightly modified version of the report that has served as formal basis for the acquisition of the Ph.D. degree. The Ph.D. study has been carried out at the Department of Physics and the Department of Buildings and Energy at the Technical University of Denmark during the period from December 1992 to June 1997. No specific grants have been received for the Ph.D. study, which instead has been based on different projects. In addition to this report, a number of publications have been produced in the course of the work - as listed in the reference list. Supervisor has been Professor Niels I. Meyer from the Department of Buildings and Energy. Kaj Jorgensen December 1997 1 List of Content Preface............................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 5 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... 7 Summary .........................................................................................................................................9 Sammenfatning.............................................................................................................................13 1 Methodology..........................................................................................................................17 2 The Post-war Period in Denmark ..........................................................................................21 2.1 Societal Changes During the Post-war Period...................................................21 2.2 Mobility - Transport Growth, Traffic Speeds and Time...........................................23 2.3 Growth and Technological Development - Progress and Problems .......................... 32 3 The Framework: Transport and Sustainability ............................................................ 37 3.1 Traditional Environmental Policy or Sustainability ............................................... 37 3.2 Efficiency and/or Sufficiency.................................................................................... 38 3.3 Setting Targets........................................................................................................... 39 4 Development of the Grocery Sector of Denmark. .........................................................41 4.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................42 4.2 Structural Changes in the Retail System..................................................................42 4.3 The Grocery Shop Types............................................................................................46 4.4 Classification of Today's Grocery Shops............................................................ 49 4.5 Manufacturing and Wholesale System.....................................................................50 5 The Grocery Consumer System..............................................................................................53 5.1 Consumption and Shopping Patterns..................................................................53 5.2 Shopping Transport Patterns............................................................................... 55 6 Vehicle Stock, Fuel Consumption and Emissions..................................................................57 6.1 Development Trends for Vehicles and Transport in the Post-War Period..............57 6.2 Vehicle Stock and Transport Patterns.................................................................63 6.3 Development of Specific Fuel Consumption and Emissions.......................................65 6.4 Transport Sector Fuel Consumption and Emissions....................................................67 6.5 Light Goods Vehicles................................................................................................ 77 7 Environmental Impacts of Grocery Distribution ................................................................... 81 7.1 The Present and Historical Transport Demand in the Grocery Sector.................. 81 7.2 Energy and Environment - Present State and Historical Development....................83 3 8 Reduction of Fuel Consumption and Emissions by Means of Technical Improvements of Vehicles....................................................................................................87 8.1 Strategies for Technical Improvements....................................................................88 8.2 Down-sizing, Reduced Standards and Driving Behaviour ................................100 8.3 Technologies on the Market ..............................................................................101 8.4 Incremental Improvements......................................................................................104 8.5 Alternative Energy Carriers and Renewable Energy..............................................107 8.6 The Hypercar, PNGV and Other Breakthrough Designs...................................... 124 8.7 Fuel and C02-emission Impacts.............................................................................. 129 9 Conclusions.......................................................................................................................... 139 9.1 Transport, Traffic Patterns and Fuel Consumption.................................................139 9.2 Technical Improvement - Potentials and Practical Results...............................140 9.3 Barriers to Technical Improvements.......................................................................141 9.4 The Impact of Technical Development - Is Green Growth Possible?...................... 142 References...................................................................................................................................145 4 Introduction It is generally acknowledged that the present development of the transport sector is the key problem in any strategy for sustainable development, but the views are much more diverse as to what could and should be done to improve this situation. According to one line of thinking, technical improvements of the transportation means can to a great extent rectify the problems - frequently adding that technical fixes also will have to play this role since little can done to more fundamentally change the direction of the trans port sector. In some cases, it is even argued that the technical improvements are not only po tentials but that they will materialise, more or less automatically, in the course of time. In contrast, others emphasise that technical improvements cannot have this role - sometimes rejecting the technical improvement potentials altogether. Therefore, it is necessary to com pare welfare benefits and costs - if the costs (e.g. the environmental impacts) are to high, the benefits (i.e. increased transportation) has to be restricted. The point of departure for this report is the latter perception with the addition that in creased transport is only to some degree meeting a demand - at least an explicit demand - and hence cannot in every respect be seen as a welfare benefit. In addition, much transport is gen erated by in social structures social structures, transport systems etc. The study of the devel opment of the grocery sector in the post-war period, in which the motor vehicle was intro duced on a large scale in Denmark, illustrates this (cf. Chapters 4,5 and 7). During the post-war period, profound changes have taken place in the grocery sector, with re spect to the retail and wholesale trade structures as well as the shopping patterns. In the course of this development, the sector has gone from a structure based on neighbourhood spe cialist shops to one with much fewer and larger shops, each aimed at a broader range of needs and each serving much greater areas. A similar centralisation trend can be seen in the manu facturing and wholesale trade of groceries. The development has been closely linked to the technological development of both retail shop equipment and, not least, transport technologies. The passenger car and the medium and heavy duty trucks are key technologies, without which the development would not have been possible in its present form. Thus, it illustrates the role of the car in the development of modem consumer society in Denmark, in particular the paradox of the car, namely that it is at the same time a necessity for the existence of the modem welfare society and a threat to it. The case study points to a considerable growth in transport related to grocery distribution, in spite of the fact that the grocery consumption in quantitative terms has only increased mod erately. As a result, fuel consumption and emissions