Political Change in Latin America: Limits and Opportunities for Social-Ecological Transformation

ANALYSIS Political Change in Latin America: Limits and opportunities for social-ecological transformation ÁLVARO CÁLIX Although there is certainly a case to be had for objecting to many of the deci- sions handed down by Latin America’s ostensibly progressive governments, it would be a mistake to ignore the palpable reduction in poverty, domestic market inducements, rising wages, and improved access to public assets, all of which were eroded under the neoliberal policies of yore. Nevertheless, it is also true that these same governments have failed to capital- ize on these tailwinds to lay the groundwork for transforming their produc- tive models. Instead, Latin American economies have only fallen further down the primary sector rabbit hole, amidst the burgeoning social and environmental conflicts that arise in territories subject to the pressures of extraction. Now is the right time to reflect, in the tradition of wholehearted self-criticism, on the merits, missteps, and challenges sown in the heterogeneous progressive field and, as a result, overhaul and undertake a social-ecological transformation project. Yet the spark to do so will never ignite spontaneously, much less by the good will of powerful interest groups. It can only come about as the result of a heterogeneous grassroots platform with the ability to organize, assert its position, and take political action, joining forces to forge unprecedented social agreements in Latin America. Such is the task of politics, and where better to do it than in a democracy, in a democracy not only able to overcome the failings of the merely electoral and the fallacies of representation without participation, but also to spring free from the trap of participation-cum-clientelism. Political Change in Latin America: Limits and opportunities for social-ecological transformation ÁLVARO CÁLIX Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Proyecto Regional Transformación Social-Ecológica © Fundación Friedrich Ebert Representación en México Yautepec 55, Col. Condesa, Del. Cuauhtémoc, C. P. 06140, Ciudad de México. Teléfono: +52 (55) 5553 5302 FES Transformación Social-Ecológica @fes_tse Proyecto Regional Transformación Social-Ecológica To request additional copies: [email protected] Responsible Christian Denzin ISBN: Commercial use of all media edited and published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung is not permitted without written consent of the FES. The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Contents 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................7 2. Geopolitical aspects with global repercussions ..............................................................7 3. Political evolution in Latin America ....................................................................................10 3.1. Recent changes on the regional political chessboard ..............................................................12 4. Political strategies and focuses of progressive administrations .............................15 4.1. Political strategies for winning and staying in power ................................................................15 4.2. An approach to the policy focus of progressive governments ..................................................18 5. Final considerations ................................................................................................................22 References .......................................................................................................................................31 POLITICAL CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICA | Álvaro Cálix 1. Introduction litical strategies and focuses of the aforementioned governments. Lastly, the fourth section outlines five strategic reflections based on a synthesis of the prior The social-ecological transformation of Latin Amer- sections. ica is not an aspiration that can happen by sponta- neous generation; it requires conditions of political It is worth mentioning that this text is not intended viability at national, subregional, and regional level. to be a thorough analysis of national cases, let alone Transitions towards a virtuous change in production make value judgments on the administrations of specialization and social and environmental justice the governments in question; rather, it seeks to give necessitate, as a sine qua non, broad societal agree- an overall view that groups together features and ments and the institutional capacity to process them. trends to provide a regional perspective, with all the The democratization the region has experienced limitations that this presupposes. The underlying starting from the last two decades of the 20th cen- premise of this paper is that sustainable bases for tury has, as a rule, brought about greater political socio-metabolic equilibriums can only be achieved stability, but without having established the bases for with certain democratic attributes that, more than overcoming historical inequalities and exclusion. other aims, make it generally possible for people to have decent lives. During this century, the so-called “progressive cycle,” with all the contrasts, tensions, and ambigui- ties that this implies, has enabled progress in certain social, economic, and political areas, thanks to the 2. Geopolitical aspects with global combination of external and internal factors that repercussions facilitated notable achievements benefitting broad swathes of the population. Nevertheless, when ex- From the bipolarity that characterized the Cold ternal economic conditions changed, it did not take War period, we passed into a unipolar transitional long for the limitations and contradictions of the stage under the hegemony of the United States. The cycle to surface. Now is a good time to rethink the second half of the 20th century saw a great deal of pros and cons of progressive administrations, also pressure to achieve a multipolar world, despite the known as post-neoliberal. We are facing a new con- resistance of the global status quo (Dierckxsens, text that together with the successes and mistakes of 2015; Palacios, 2011). However, that trend has still the past, warrants a turning point that minimizes not materialized into an institutionalization of a the risk of social regressions, such as those we are multilateral world that is better at processing the starting to see in Brazil and Argentina, but that, world’s new conflicts. above all, adjusts and amends where the current cycle of governments shows its main weaknesses. Of course, the creation in 1999 of the G20 as a meeting place between traditional and emerging Based on a general analysis of the progressive cycle, powers is a notable sign of what could be the future this essay aims to contribute to the reflection on courses of action of global governance in dynamic and discussion of the political conditions for the contexts involving hegemonic reconfiguration. The transformation of Latin American societies. It con- United States is still a superpower, although it fac- sists of four main sections. The first section reviews es an opponent with the potential to dispute this certain aspects of the global geopolitical situation position: China. Moreover, Russia seems to be re- and its relationship with the region’s performance. covering its position as a significant world player The second deals with the political evolution of Lat- - although not of the magnitude of the last century in America, with emphasis on the social conditions - after having suffered from the impact of the frag- and electoral milestones that permitted the emer- mentation of the old USSR. gence and permanence of governments that have, to a greater or lesser extent, confronted the rationality It could be assumed that, in the current global junc- of neoliberalism. The third section covers the po- ture, the role of the European Union would make a 5 Álvaro Cálix | POLITICAL CHANGE IN LATIN AMERICA difference, as Europe has been recognized as a nor- diplomatic relations that it will maintain with Rus- mative power. This recognition was highly relevant sia and China, at the moment it is clear that Trump during the last 25 years of the last century, given will be an obstacle to any progress on global agree- the European Union’s leadership in ideas, institu- ments on human rights, climate change, and migra- tions, and norms tending towards multilateralism. tion. Nowadays, in the second decade of the 21st century, the influence of the European Union has de- The 2008 economic crisis further weakened U.S. creased, and its internal crisis has irrupted just when supremacy, while also affecting those who have the world shows undeniable signs of a transition of been its strongest allies until now: the European global powers (Barbé, 2014). In any case, the recon- Union and Japan. However, despite the crisis, we figuration experienced by Europe and, in particu- cannot ignore the fact that the United States is still lar, by the European Union, will be a key factor in the only world superpower. It still has the largest choosing the direction of the new world order. economy on the planet (in terms of GDP, without adjusting for purchasing power parity), concen- Meanwhile, a large part of the United States “es- trates the most patents for innovation in strategic tablishment” still blindly believes in that country’s cutting-edge technologies (because of the high po- exceptionality, the idea being that its planetary tential of adding

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