4 THE CRIC PAPERS Portraits of Canada 2001

JANUARY 2002 Table of Contents

1 Preface

3 Highlights

4 Methodology

5 1. The Economy and the Quality of Life

7 2. Canada in a Changing World Ties to the US A Common Currency? Energy Policy Globalization

13 3. Immigration

16 4. Federalism and National Unity Equalization: A Commitment to Sharing the Wealth The Practice of Federalism: An Assessment Priorities for Change The Balance of Power Support for Sovereignty in Quebec

32 5. Official Languages

33 6. Aboriginal Peoples

35 7. Health Care and Social Programs The Surplus Health Care

40 8. Rural Canada

41 Conclusion

Centre for Research and Information on Canada (CRIC) 2000 McGill College Avenue, Suite 250 Montréal, Quebec H3A 3H3 1-800-363-0963 Fax: (514) 843-4590 www.ccu-cuc.ca

Ce document est aussi disponible en français. Preface

latest Portraits of Canada offers Not so. The a clear picture of what unites Canadians, and what divides them. Portraits of Canada also reveals that in every part of the country, except Ontario and This annual tracking poll reveals broad areas Quebec, a majority feels that their province of agreement among Canadians on a wide neither gets the respect it deserves, nor variety of subjects that were in the news enjoys the influence that it should have. during the past year. In and of itself, this more negative con- It pinpoints established or emerging sensus considerably limits the impact of consensuses on: the abovementioned areas of agreement.

• support for a common Canada-US currency But it highlights another major national • rejection of a continental energy policy consensus identified in this and other CRIC • the need to protect Canadian sovereignty polls: Canadians continue to demand, in in the face of globalization a forceful and sustained way, closer • support for equalization cooperation between the federal and • up to a certain point, the best means provincial governments. to preserve the healthcare system • support for official bilingualism and the importance of learning both official languages • the best means to improve the workings of the federation • support for the country’s farmers

A foreign visitor might be forgiven for thinking that the extent of cross-country agreement means that the country is easy to govern despite significant economic, social, cultural and political differences that are manifest in its regionalism.

1 Acknowledgements

CRIC wishes to acknowledge the contributions made by our associates and consultants. Portraits of Canada would not be possible without the work and energy that Donna Dasko, Claude Gauthier, Matthew Mendelsohn and Maurice Pinard each devoted to this project. In particular, we would like to thank Maurice Pinard for his assistance in drafting the section of this paper relating to the situation in Quebec. CRIC also thanks Environics Research Group for making available selected results from some of their earlier surveys.

2 Highlights

CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD • Three out of five Quebecers oppose a sovereignty referendum before 2005. • As they confront globalization, most • Seventy percent of Quebecers would Canadians say that keeping the country vote “yes” to a referendum question independent is a greater challenge in asking if their province should remain coming years than keeping it united. part of Canada. • A significant majority says a common • Sixty-one percent would vote “no” to North American energy policy would the 1995 referendum question. But if harm Canada, and a majority believes that NO supporters were convinced that a free trade has resulted in Canada losing partnership with Canada was assured, control over its energy resources. a number of them would switch their • A majority now supports a common vote to “yes” – enough to give the YES Canada-US currency, but most think side a victory. it would be a bad idea for Canada to simply adopt the US dollar. PUBLIC POLICY • Canadians feel more affinity with Americans in the wake of September 11th. • There has been a change in attitudes The number who want closer ties with towards immigration: the number of the US is up. But support for the free Canadians wanting the country to accept movement of Canadian and American fewer immigrants has risen. citizens across the border with the US • In every province, a large majority has dropped sharply. supports Canada’s official languages policy. Many are also agreeable to their FEDERALISM AND province being officially bilingual. NATIONAL UNITY • The proportion saying that relations with Aboriginal peoples are improving is the • There is massive support in every lowest since the Portraits of Canada province in Canada for equalization. surveys began in 1998. •A growing number of Quebecers view •A majority says that the best way for federalism more favourably. However, governments to deal with the rising cost the number of western Canadians who of health care is to significantly increase see it as advantageous for their province their spending in this area. has fallen sharply. • An overwhelming majority – including a • In every province outside of central large majority of city-dwellers – agrees Canada, a majority says that their that in hard times, governments should province has less than its fair share of lend a helping hand to the country’s influence on national decisions, and is small family farms. not treated with the respect it deserves. • In terms of priorities for making the country work better, Canadians are more united than divided. In each major region, the two options most likely to be chosen as high priorities are increasing federal-provincial cooperation and more free votes in the House of Commons. 3 Methodology

of Canada is an The results of surveys of this size have a Portraits annual survey margin of error of approximately plus or of public opinion in Canada conducted by the minus 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of Centre for Research and Information on error are larger for subsamples within the Canada (CRIC). The purpose of the survey is survey. The provincial and regional sample to track how the attitudes of Canadians have sizes are noted below. evolved on a range of issues relating to the nature and well-being of the country and its AREA SAMPLE citizens. The survey is now in its fourth year. Canada 2,940 The 2001 edition of the survey is more Newfoundland 103 authoritative than ever because it is based on Maritimes 331 the largest sample size yet: 2,940 people. As Quebec 1,001 in previous years, the telephone survey was Ontario 403 conducted in two parts. Environics Research Group surveyed 1,939 people in the nine Manitoba 225 provinces outside of Quebec between October Saskatchewan 225 1 and October 10, 2001, while CROP surveyed Alberta 327 1,001 people in Quebec between September 28 BC 325 and October 14, 2001. The data from the two parts of the survey were combined in order to calculate results for the whole of Canada. The results have been weighted so as to reflect the actual distribution of the Canadian population (according to the last census) based on sex, age, province of residence, and – within Quebec – language use and region of residence within the province.

4 1. The Economy and The Quality of Life

FIGURE 1 THE ECONOMY AND THE QUALITY OF LIFE In the next few years, do you expect the Canadian economy to become stronger, to become weaker or to stay about the same?

Thinking about the local community in which you live – that is your city, town or rural area – do you think that the quality of life there is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 60 54 50 43 40 34 30 24 21 20 19 10 0 The Economy The Quality of Life

BECOME STRONGER GETTING BETTER STAY ABOUT THE SAME STAYING ABOUT THE SAME BECOME WEAKER GETTING WORSE • Canadians are more pessimistic about the economy than they were six months ago. Thirty-four percent say that the economy will become weaker in the years to come, up from the 25% recorded in a CRIC survey conducted in March 2001. (In the present survey, 19% say the economy will get stronger, and 43% say it will stay about the same.)

• Canadians are more optimistic when asked about the quality of life in their local community. Twenty-four percent say it is getting better, compared with 21% who say it is getting worse, and 54% who say it is about the same.

• Residents of Alberta are more likely than other Canadians to say that their local quality of life is getting better. The reverse is true in neighbouring Saskatchewan: residents of that province are more likely than those elsewhere to say that the quality of life in their local community is getting worse.

5 1. THE ECONOMY AND THE QUALITY OF LIFE

Saskatchewan and Alberta: Neighbours on Different Paths

Saskatchewan and Alberta are a study in contrasts. In Saskatchewan, many more people say that the quality of life in their local community is getting worse (31%) rather than getting better (16%). The reverse is true in Alberta, where many more people say their quality of life is getting better (31%) rather than getting worse (14%). Similarly, residents of Saskatchewan are more likely than other Canadians to be contemplating a move away from the province, whereas Albertans are among those least likely to be doing so. Only 57% of Saskatchewan residents (compared with 79% of Albertans) say they are very likely to be living in their province five years from now, and 12% (compared with only 3% of Albertans) say it is very unlikely that they will.

This supports the findings on western Canada released by the Canada West Foundation earlier this year – although the present nation-wide survey adds that residents of Saskatchewan are less likely to say that they will stay in their province than are residents of any other province of the country, including those in Newfoundland and the Maritimes.1 CRIC’s findings on different outlooks in Saskatchewan and Alberta also reinforce the grounds for the Foundation’s concern about growing disparities among western provinces.2

1 Loleen Berdahl, Looking West: A Survey of Western Canadians (Calgary: Canada West Foundation, 2001), pp. 13-15. Available on the website of the Canada West Foundation at http://www.cwf.ca/pubs/200106.cfm?pub_id=200106.

2 Robert Roach and Loleen Berdahl, State of the West: Western Canadian Demographic and Economic Trends (Calgary: Canada West Foundation, 2001), p. 79.

6 2. Canada in a Changing World

TIES TO THE US FIGURE 2 CANADA’S TIES WITH THE US • In the wake of September 11th, Canadians Do you think Canada should have much closer ties to the U.S., somewhat feel greater affinity towards Americans. closer, about the same as now, somewhat more distant or much more There has been a 10-point increase since distant ties to the US than it has now? March 2001 in the proportion of Canadians 60 53 wanting Canada to have closer ties with 50 52 the US. Outside Quebec, the increase 40 33 was 14 points, whereas in Quebec views 30 23 23 were unchanged. 20 13 10 • Greater apprehension about national 0 security after September 11th has also Closer More Distant Same affected views about the Canada-US SPRING 2001* AUTUMN 2001 border. Fewer Canadians today than *Source: CRIC Survey on Trade, Globalization and Canadian Values. a year ago support the idea of free FIGURE 3 FREE MOVEMENT ACROSS THE BORDER? movement across the border for Do you think Canadian and American citizens should or should not be Canadian and American citizens. allowed to move freely across the Canada-US border – that is to say, without having to report to a customs and immigration post? 70 A COMMON CURRENCY? 65 60 • Canadians are open to sharing a currency 53 50 with the United States, but not if that 44 40 means unduly compromising Canadian 33 sovereignty. A majority (55%) says that 30 it would be a good idea for Canada and 20 the US to have a common currency, when 10 0 this is defined as “the same dollar.” This YES – Move Freely NO – Retain Customs

figure has risen notably in recent years. 2000 2001

FIGURE 4 A COMMON CURRENCY? • In this survey, however, only one half A. Do you think it would be a very good, somewhat good, not very good, of respondents were asked this question. or not at all a good idea for Canada and the United States to have The other half were asked whether it a common currency – that is the same dollar? (Note: 1/2 sample) would be a good idea for Canada to use B. Do you think it would be a very good, somewhat good, not very good, or not at all a good idea for Canada to use the U.S. dollar as its currency? the US dollar as its currency. Far fewer (Note: 1/2 sample) Canadians think that this would be a 60 60 59 55 good idea, and there has been no notable 50 49 50 46 increase in the figure over time. 43 40 40 34 36 30 20 10 0 Good Idea Not a Good Idea Good Idea Not a Good Idea A COMMON CURRENCY USE THE U.S. DOLLAR 1992* 1999* 2001 *Source: Environics Focus Canada

7 2. CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD

Would a Common North American Currency Compromise Canadian Sovereignty?

“…[T]he euro is a supra-national currency … While the formal euro area encompasses 12 nations, this will double soon… Hence, there will be many fewer currencies in the world in the near future and I doubt whether the Canadian dollar will be one of them...

Under the version of a common currency that…I favour, some Canadian symbolism could still remain on the currency. But the more important sovereignty issue is that those policies that Canadians value most highly – Medicare, equalization, CPP/QPP, the Canada Assistance Plan, even regional development – were put in place (or finalized in their current form) during the 1960s. Yet the 1960s were the only period in the post-war period where Canada had a fixed exchange rate with the USA. Therefore, tying ourselves to US monetary policy did not lead to a decline in our ability to legislate in our likeness and image elsewhere in the policy arena.

…Canadians will be influenced by the British decision toward the euro. Since the British want no part of a political union with European nations, adopting the euro would send a message that a common currency is all about economics and market access and not about sovereignty. I think Canadians are increasingly sensing this.” 3

Thomas Courchene Jarislowsky-Deutsch Professor of Economics and Financial Policy at Queen’s University and Senior Scholar at the Institute for Research on Public Policy

3 Thomas Courchene, remarks quoted from: “Is It Time for Canada to Embrace Monetary Union?” Edited transcript from “The Art of the State” Conference hosted by The Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) and the Canadian Institute for Research on Regional Development (CIRRD), Friday, October 12, 2001, Montebello, Quebec. Available on the website of the IRPP at: www.irpp.org.

8 2. CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD

“In the end, the problem of any kind of currency union here without political union basically implies that Canada adopts the US currency. We have none of the comparable arrangements that they have in Europe. If, for example, the British join the euro, they will be another large country along with France, Germany and Italy, in the European Central Bank. They are going to have a lot of influence relative to those other countries in making European monetary policy. The North American situation is just not comparable. And the Americans really do make it quite clear they're not about to make any comparable accommodation here. So if you're talking about currency union, let's remember you are talking about adopting the US dollar.” 4

Gordon Thiessen Former Governor of the Bank of Canada and Executive in Residence in the School of Management at the University of Ottawa

“But the real issue at stake is sovereignty. By adopting the US dollar, we would relinquish a critical policy tool for managing our economy. It is improbable that the US Federal Reserve would grant Canada a voice at the table for the purposes of making monetary policy, simply because we adopted the US dollar. And without political accountability, it is implausible that most Canadians would knowingly surrender their ability to make monetary policy.

Monetary policy cannot be separated from political sovereignty… Given that the maintenance of a separate national currency has been synonymous, historically, with political independence, such a decision would be a momentous step for Canada, with major implications for our continued existence as an independent nation.” 5

Anne Golden President and CEO of the Conference Board of Canada

4 Gordon Thiessen, remarks quoted from: “Is It Time for Canada to Embrace Monetary Union?” Edited transcript from “The Art of the State” Conference hosted by The Institute for Research on Public Policy (IRPP) and the Canadian Institute for Research on Regional Development (CIRRD), Friday, October 12, 2001, Montebello, Quebec. Available on the website of the IRPP at: www.irpp.org.

5 Anne Golden, “In Loonies, We Should Trust,” The Globe and Mail (Toronto), 29 November 2001, p. A19.

9 2. CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD

ENERGY POLICY • Concerns about Canadian sovereignty are also evident on the issue of a common North American energy policy. When told that the Canadian government has started talking with the American and Mexican governments about creating such a policy, almost two-thirds of Canadians (65%) express concern that “a common energy policy will harm Canada because we will lose some control over our energy resources.” Twenty-eight percent say that it would benefit the country by allowing Canada to sell more energy to the US and Mexico. There was no significant difference of opinion between residents of oil- producing provinces, such as Alberta, and other Canadians.

• Similarly, a majority (54%) agrees that “the Free Trade Agreement with the United States has resulted in a loss of Canada's control over our energy and natural resources.” Thirty-five percent disagree. Canadians have become even more concerned about this consequence of free trade than they were in 1987, when the agreement was being negotiated. Then, 46% said that the free trade agreement would result in a loss of Canada's control over our energy and natural resources, while 31% disagreed.6

6 Source: Environics Focus Canada. The data were made available by the Canadian Public Opinion Archive at Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario (http://queensu.ca/cora).

10 2. CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD

Free Trade and The Control of the Economy

Canadians endorse free trade. In March 2001, a CRIC survey on the subject confirmed that roughly two-thirds of Canadians favour Canada negotiating new international trade agreements with other countries, including a Free Trade Area of the Americas.7 But 84% also said they would favour restrictions to prevent American investors from taking control of Canadian companies. Some might say that Canadians are contradicting themselves, since such restrictions would contravene the rules of free trade. But a more generous interpretation is that Canadians simply are expressing their support for two policy objectives that they wish to see achieved at the same time, and that they do not see as incompatible: participating in international trade, and maintaining control over their own economy.

In the current survey, concern about potential loss of domestic control of the economy is again evident, with a majority of respondents stating that free trade has resulted in a loss of Canadian control of the country’s energy and natural resources. Interestingly, in the period since the signing of the Free Trade Agreement, outright opposition to free trade has dissipated. At the same time, the sense that it has cost us a measure of control over an important sector of our economy has accentuated.

There is no evidence to suggest that this continuing preoccupation with economic sovereignty will turn Canadians against the principle of free trade. But the survey data do suggest that Canadians are well aware of the pluses and minuses associated with participation in the international economy, and of the challenges that continental economic integration poses for the future of the country.

7 See: The Centre for Research and Information on Canada (CRIC), Trade, Globalization and Canadian Values, CRIC Paper # 1 (Montreal: CRIC, April 2001).

11 2. CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD

GLOBALIZATION • This concern about control over resources is echoed in a more general question that asks about the challenges that will face the country in the years to come. Sixty- three percent of Canadians said that the biggest challenge will be “keeping Canada independent - that is maintaining control over its economy, social policy and culture in the face of the challenge of globalization.” By contrast, only 33% said it will be “keeping Canada united - that is responding to regional concerns and to Quebec nationalism.”

The Challenge of Globalization

Canadians recognize that the country faces challenges very different from those that preoccupied the country during the past several decades. National unity – seen in terms of relations between the federal and provincial governments – cannot be taken for granted. But by a margin of almost two-to-one, Canadians are more likely to say that keeping Canada independent, in the context of globalization, is the bigger challenge.

This, along with the survey results with respect to monetary and energy policy noted above, adds another important nuance to the free trade debate. While Canadians have no objections, in principle, to participating in a more integrated continental and global economy, it seems that they are likely to reject specific measures (such as adopting of the US dollar as Canada’s currency) that are seen to impinge directly on Canadian sovereignty.

12 3. Immigration

• Attitudes toward immigration have changed dramatically since March 2001. There has been a 16-point increase in the proportion of Canadians who say that the country should accept fewer immigrants than it does now. Despite this shift, a majority says that the country should either accept more immigrants, or about the same number as now. And the number who want to accept fewer immigrants, FIGURE 5 IMMIGRATION: MORE OR LESS? while a good deal higher than six months Do you think Canada should accept more immigrants, fewer immigrants, ago, is actually about the same as it or about the same number as we accept now? (In 1997, the question was: was in 1997. Do you think Canada should admit more immigrants, fewer immigrants, or about the same as now?)

• Changes in attitude are somewhat 60 53 less pronounced on two supplementary 50 51 46 45 44 questions about immigration. The 40 41 32 proportion agreeing that “many people 30 29 claiming to be refugees are not real 20 12 14 refugees” is very high (70%), but this is 10 9 9 not significantly higher than it was when 0 the same question was asked in 1998, and More Fewer Same

is lower than it was in 1993. Similarly, 1997* AUTUMN 2000 SPRING 2001** AUTUMN 2001 57% disagree that “Canada ought to be *Source: 1997 Canadian Election Study. accepting more immigrants from those **Source: CRIC Survey on Trade, Globalization and Canadian Values. parts of the world which are experiencing major conflicts.” This figure is 10 points higher than it was in 1998, but is slightly FIGURE 6 MORE IMMIGRANTS FROM CONFLICT ZONES? lower than in 1993. 8 For each of the following statements please tell me whether you agree strongly, agree somewhat, disagree somewhat or disagree strongly: Canada ought to be accepting more immigrants from those parts of • The recent change in attitude toward the world which are experiencing major conflicts.

immigration is probably a response to 60 59 57 the abovementioned growing economic 50 46 47 pessimism, and possibly to heightened 40 39 concerns about national security 34 30 following the September 11th attacks 20 against the US. 10 0 Agree Disagree

1993* 1998* 2001 * Source: Environics Focus Canada.

8 Source for 1993 and 1998 results: Environics Focus Canada.

13 3. IMMIGRATION

Attitudes Toward Immigration

Public opinion about immigration issues, particularly issues having to do with the numbers of immigrants that this country should accept, tend to be related to the state of the domestic economy. When the economy is strong, attitudes towards immigrants tend to improve. During recessions, when unemployment rises, the view that immigrants take jobs away from Canadian-born workers gains currency.

For example, during the recession of the early 1990’s, public attitudes hardened on almost all questions related to immigration. As we moved into a period of strong growth and job creation in the late 1990’s, attitudes became more positive. In times of strength and growth, people feel secure; in times of recession, fearing for their own jobs or security, many people “circle the wagons,” become less open, and more concerned with their own survival. Blaming immigrants or becoming less accepting of immigrants is one response. Such negative attitudes are rarely articulated publicly and are almost never expressed by opinion leaders or elites, but the changes are evident in public opinion surveys that consistently track opinion.

The new Portraits of Canada survey may mark another turning point in public attitudes toward immigration. After several years of robust growth, the economy was just beginning to slow, and, in turn, economic confidence was beginning to weaken as the survey began. As the survey shows, the number of Canadians expecting the economy to decline jumped nine points between March and October. At the same time, the dramatic September 11th events shone a brighter light on this country’s faulty procedures for investigating and removing those who do not qualify as immigrants or refugees. September 11th does not bode well for fostering a welcoming attitude toward those arriving on Canadian shores as refugee claimants.

14 3. IMMIGRATION

Indeed, the survey shows an increase in the number of Canadians who say we should accept fewer immigrants, from 29% a few months earlier to 45% today. A total of 70% agree that many people claiming to be refugees are not real refugees. As well, 39%, down seven points since 1998, say this country should accept more immigrants from parts of the world which are experiencing major conflicts. These findings suggest a hardening of views toward immigration at least over the very short term, although the figures show that current opinions are still within the range of views that we have seen over the past half-decade or so.

Looking ahead to the next few years, I think that Canada’s multiracial and multicultural society will survive and prosper, despite the few troubling incidents reported in the wake of September 11th. The long-term trend toward acceptance of ethnic and racial diversity means that very few Canadians today would exclude any groups or categories of immigrants on these bases. Most Canadians have already come to realize and accept that entire communities cannot be blamed for the actions of a few individuals with the same religious background. At the same time we will see a tightening of this country’s security arrangements and immigration control procedures which will undoubtedly catch in their web the innocent as well as the guilty, both non-citizens and citizens. The real test, I believe, will be the impact of a declining economy. A few quarters of declining growth won’t change the public mood, but a sustained downturn and high unemployment will have a decidedly negative impact on this country’s support for sustained immigration.

Donna Dasko Senior Vice President Environics Research Group Limited

15 4. Federalism and National Unity

FIGURE 7 SUPPORT FOR EQUALIZATION As you may know, under the federal equalization program money is transferred from the richer provinces to the poorer ones, in order to ensure that Canadians living in every province have access to similar levels of public services. Do you strongly support, moderately support, moderately oppose, or strongly oppose the equalization program? 100 87% 87% 88% 83% 83% 85% 84% 80 74% 32 37 40 60 38 42 41 39 40 40 55 20 45 50 48 44 45 41 34 0 Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC

STRONGLY SUPPORT MODERATELY SUPPORT EQUALIZATION: A COMMITMENT TO SHARING THE WEALTH FIGURE 8 EQUALIZATION: MORE OR LESS? • Canadians are very supportive of the And do you think that the equalization program should be changed so that equalization program, indicating a it transfers more money from the richer to the poorer provinces, less money fundamental commitment to sharing from the richer provinces to the poorer provinces, or should the program be kept as it is now? the country’s wealth as an important part 70 of the bargain of Confederation. Support 60 61 for equalization is lowest in Alberta, 50 currently the country’s wealthiest 44 40 province, but even here three out of 30 31 30 32 four respondents endorse the program. 25 24 20 19 Support is as high in British Columbia as 13 14 8 10 7 5 5 it is in Quebec, and as high in Ontario as 2 3 0 it is in Atlantic Canada. On this question, Transfer More Money Transfer Less Money there is no significant difference of Newfoudland Maritimes Quebec Ontario opinion between the “have more” and Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta BC the “have less” provinces.

• The extent of support for equalization is also clear in the lack of any real appetite for reducing equalization payments. Less than 20% of Albertans would like the program to transfer less money from the richer to poorer provinces. The proportion of British Columbians and Ontarians that would like to transfer more money under the program exceeds the proportion that would like to transfer less.

16 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

Sharing the Wealth

Equalization has been subjected to some harsh criticism in recent months. Leaders from “have less” provinces have argued that the way equalization payments are calculated effectively penalizes them when they succeed in developing their economies because new revenues are unfairly “clawed back” by the federal government. On occasion, some leaders from “have more” provinces have criticized the program for making the “have less” provinces too dependent on government transfers. Journalist John Ibbitson has argued that “equalization must end because it has failed” and has created a “cycle of have- not dependence.” 9

No program is beyond improvement, and suggestions will continue to be made about how best to calculate the level of equalization payments. But what Portraits of Canada shows is that Canadians are not as caught up in the debates about the technicalities of the equalization program as are some political leaders and commentators. They overwhelmingly support equalization, and even residents of the country’s wealthiest provinces do not wish to see it curtailed.

9 John Ibbitson, “Prosperity Requires an End to Days of Fiscal Paternalism,” The Globe and Mail (Toronto), 20 July 2001, p. B9.

17 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

FIGURE 9 AN ASSESSMENT OF FEDERALISM Figure shows the proportion agreeing with the statement that "Canadian federalism has more advantages than disadvantages for [name of province]."

70 68 68 68 70 65 66 65 67 67 62 64 60 57 58 59 55 55 55 53 50 51 49 45 40 THE PRACTICE OF FEDERALISM: 30 AN ASSESSMENT 20 10 • Quebecers are viewing the practice of 0 federalism more favourably. But the Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC opposite is true of Atlantic Canada and,

1998 1999 2001 above all, the West.

• A majority of Quebecers (56%) agree that “federalism is flexible and helps Canada adapt to changing circumstances.” This is eight points higher than in 1999.

• Similarly, a majority of Quebecers (55%) agree that Canadian federalism has more advantages than disadvantages for their province – up six points since 1999.

• In contrast, the proportion of western Canadians agreeing that Canadian federalism has more advantages than disadvantages for their province has fallen sharply, from 61% in 1999 to 51% in 2001. The fall has been most dramatic in Alberta – from 64% to 45%.

18 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

FIGURE 10 INFLUENCE AND RESPECT A. In your opinion, how much influence does (name of province) have on important national decisions in Canada? Would you say it has more than its fair share, less than is fair share, or about its fair share.

B. In your opinion, is (name of province) treated with the respect it deserves in Canada or not? 80 74 76 69 70 66 67 63 60 60 58 60 55 56 54 50 50 49 50 40 31 30 28

20 15 10 0 Nfld. NS NB Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC

INFLUENCE: LESS THAN FAIR SHARE PROVINCE NOT TREATED WITH RESPECT • Ontario continues to stand out as the province most content with its place in the federation. The number of Ontarians FIGURE 11 PROVINCE IS TREATED WITH RESPECT: TRENDS who say that the province has less than In your opinion, is (name of province) treated with the respect it deserves its fair share of influence on national in Canada or not? (Figure shows the proportion saying that their province decisions, or is not treated with the is treated with the respect it deserves.) respect it deserves in Canada, is small 80 77 and contrasts with the situation in the 70 70 68 60 54 55 rest of the country. 51 52 50 46 47 43 45 40 41 40 40 39 38 37 36 34 35 • In fact, in every province outside of 30 26 central Canada, a majority says that their 20 province has less than its fair share of 10 0 influence on national decisions, and is Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC not treated with the respect it deserves 1999 2000 2001 in Canada.

• The proportion of Quebecers saying their province is treated with the respect it deserves has been rising since 1999. But in Atlantic Canada and in Alberta, the proportion saying their province is treated with the respect it deserves has fallen ten points since 1999.

19 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

The West: Declining Satisfaction with Federalism

Canada is a country of regional identities and distinctions. That diversity can be a very positive thing – one of the advantages of federalism is that it allows countries to experiment with policy, and to develop policy environments that meet the particular needs of provincial communities. But that same diversity can also be a negative factor if regions feel that they are disrespected, disengaged or disadvantaged within the larger federal community. In such a case, regional diversity can be extremely corrosive to the very idea of federalism itself.

This remains a challenge in Canada, not only in Quebec but also in the four western provinces. As CRIC’s data demonstrate, western Canadians have become less satisfied with federalism in recent years. The 2001 data are striking enough: only one in two western Canadians feels that federalism has more advantages than disadvantages, and a majority of western Canadians feel that their province does not have its fair share of influence in national decision-making and is not treated with respect in Canada.

But what is more illustrative than the 2001 numbers alone is the longitudinal trend. Simply put, western Canadian attitudes toward federalism are worsening. Looking from 1998 to 2001 – a period of considerable economic prosperity and growth in Canada – western Canadians became less and less convinced that the Canadian federal system was benefiting their provinces and, one might assume by extension, their own personal interests.

The challenge for Canadians and their governments is to resist the temptation to dismiss the dissatisfaction expressed in western Canada. From my observation, one of the primary sources of western frustration is the continued perception that western views and perspectives are not taken seriously east of Manitoba. When politicians and analysts argue that western alienation is irrelevant or invalid, the feelings of being ignored are only intensified.

20 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

Dismissing a region’s feelings of dissociation or estrangement as simple political inconvenience only serves to perpetuate the problem.

And western alienation truly is a problem for Canadian federalism. Alienation captures feelings of unfairness, inequality and isolation – feelings not conducive to a strong federal system. This is seen in responses to CRIC’s survey question concerning a confederation of regions: Alberta (22%), British Columbia (18%) and Saskatchewan (16%) respondents all report surprisingly high levels of support for the idea of breaking Canada into a confederal (rather than a federal) system – a partnership of more powerful regions with a much smaller role for the central government. It is ironic that at a time when an increasing number of countries around the world are moving towards federal or near-federal systems, so many residents of Canada, one of the world’s more mature federations, are ambivalent about federalism’s merits.

Admittedly, addressing western alienation is not an easy task. Many concerns arising in western Canada are institutional – such as the need for Senate reform and electoral reform – rather than policy-specific, and are unlikely to change in the near or even distant future. There is no one policy issue that the federal government can back that will necessarily lead to a reversal of the current trend of increasing dissatisfaction. There is no quick fix. But the lack of easy answers does not mean that the federal government can ignore the issue.

The onus is on the federal government to ensure western Canadians that they are benefiting from Canadian federalism, and that the federal government is attentive to western Canadian interests. Failing to do so works against the long-term interests of all Canadians.

Loleen Berdahl, Director of Research Canada West Foundation

21 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

PRIORITIES FOR CHANGE majority of sovereignists in Quebec prefer • Canadians want the federal and provincial that both levels of government work most governments to develop more cooperative things out together. relationships. When asked about the way governments make decisions, only 18% • Thus, it is not surprising that, across say that “the federal government should the country, the most favoured option have the final say on some things, the for making the country work better is provincial governments on others, and increased federal-provincial cooperation. they should both stay out of each other's Two-thirds of Canadians say that this is way.” Four out of five would prefer that a high priority. “both levels of government should work most things out together.” The proportion preferring the second option is lower in Quebec than elsewhere, but nevertheless is almost two-thirds (65%). Even a

Federalism: The Public’s Desire for Cooperation “Canadians outside Quebec have little attachment to particular divisions of powers in the BNA Act and show little support for governments asserting their sovereignty in particular policy areas. They have…little interest in attempting to implement “watertight jurisdictions.” If Canadians are federalists, they seem to be instrumental and protective federalists: they take for granted that there are two constitutional orders of government and want both to be involved in most policy areas in order to check one another…Political platforms built around massive devolution where the federal government is shut out of major policy areas are likely to have little public appeal, even in a province like Alberta.

Although Canadians do want both governments to be involved in most areas, they would not like to live in a unitary state. Their distinct preference is for a collaborative and cooperative intergovernmental model in which all governments work together to come to agreement on most things.”10

Fred Cutler (University of British Columbia) and Matthew Mendelsohn (Queen’s University

10 Fred Cutler and Matthew Mendelsohn, “What Kind of Federalism Do Canadians (Outside of Quebec) Want?” Policy Options / Options Politiques Vol. 22, No. 8 (October 2001), p. 29. Text slightly revised by the authors.

22 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

• The second most common high priority • Further down the list of priorities, opinions to make the country work better is do diverge somewhat. Transferring more “changing the rules of the House of powers from the federal to the provincial Commons so that members of parliament governments is a high priority for 42% can vote more freely, rather than having of Quebecers, but only 18% of Ontarians. to vote the same way as their party.” The Similarly, changing the Canadian consti- fact that a majority (57%) of Canadians tution to recognize Quebec’s unique see “free votes” in the House of Commons character is a high priority for 40% of as a high priority sends a strong signal residents of that province, but for only to Canada’s political leaders – one 9% of those outside of it. Reducing that points to a troubling level of regional economic inequalities is a high dissatisfaction with the way issues priority for 54% of Newfoundlanders, are debated and decisions are made but for only 29% of Albertans. This in parliament. does not detract from the point made above, namely that Canadians from all • In terms of priorities for making the regions of the country agree on the two country work better, Canadians are more highest priorities for making the country united than divided. In each major region, work better. the two options most likely to be chosen as high priorities are increasing federal- provincial cooperation and more free votes in the House of Commons.

• The sense that the Senate is in need of reform is one that is shared by many provinces, and not only those in western Canada. In fact, the West appears to have an ally in Ontario: residents of that province are almost as likely as are residents of western Canada to say that an elected Senate is a high priority.

23 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

TABLE 1: PRIORITIES FOR CHANGE

When it comes to helping the country work better, please tell me if you think each of the following should be a high priority, a medium priority or a low priority...? (Table shows the proportion in each region saying that each item is a high priority.)

ATLANTIC CANADA ONTARIO

Increasing co-operation between the federal Increasing co-operation between the federal 1 and provincial governments (66%) and provincial governments (67%)

2 More free votes (57%)11 More free votes (55%)

Reducing regional economic Replacing the existing Senate 3 inequalities (47%) with an elected Senate (42%)

Replacing the existing Senate with Reducing regional economic 4 an elected Senate (39%) inequalities (34%)

Transferring more powers from the federal to Transferring more powers from the federal to 5 the provincial governments (27%)12 the provincial governments (18%)

Changing the Canadian constitution to recognize Changing the Canadian constitution to recognize 6 the unique character of Quebec (15%) the unique character of Quebec (9%)

QUEBEC WESTERN CANADA Increasing co-operation between the federal Increasing co-operation between the federal 1 and provincial governments (62%) and provincial governments (71%)

2 More free votes (54%) More free votes (61%)

3 Reducing regional economic inequalities (52%) Reducing regional economic inequalities (34%)

Transferring more powers from the federal to Replacing the existing Senate with 4 the provincial governments (42%) an elected Senate (46%)

Changing the Canadian constitution to recognize Transferring more powers from the federal 5 the unique character of Quebec (40%) to the provincial governments (30%)

Replacing the existing Senate with Changing the Canadian constitution to recognize 6 an elected Senate (38%) the unique character of Quebec (8%)

11 The exact wording of this option is: “changing the rules of the House of Commons so that Members of Parliament can vote more freely, rather than having to vote the same way as their party.”

12 While the four Atlantic provinces are grouped together for the purposes of this table, there are some important differences between Newfoundland and the Maritimes that should be noted. Newfoundlanders are more likely to say that transferring more powers from the federal to the provincial governments is a high priority (38%, compared to 24% for the Maritimes). They are also more likely to say that reducing regional economic inequalities is a high priority (54%, compared to 45%). But they are less likely to say that having more free votes is a high priority (46%, compared to 61% for the Maritimes).

24 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

Who Are the “Instinctive Federalists”?

At a CRIC panel on Western alienation, held in Toronto this September, economist and commentator John Richards argued that residents of the Prairie provinces are “instinctive federalists.” This means that they see the benefits of the two levels of government and have a strong desire to see the division of powers respected.

There is some evidence to support this assertion. Saskatchewan and Alberta are the two provinces most likely to say that their provincial governments should have more power in the future. Similarly, they are more likely to say that the federal government has too much power (only Newfoundlanders are even more likely to say that this is the case). What is notable here is that these two provinces are more supportive of a stronger provincial government, and of a weaker federal one, than is Quebec.

However, some caveats are in order. First, Quebecers are much more likely to say that the transfer of powers from the federal to the provincial governments is a high priority. Second, an overwhelming majority of Saskatchewan and Alberta residents – over 80 percent – would prefer the federal and provincial governments to work most things out together, as opposed to each level of government having the final say in its own area and staying out of the other’s way. Only in Quebec does a significant minority (31%) prefer that the two levels of government stay out of each other’s way. This is in keeping with Mendelsohn and Cutler’s conclusion, noted above, that few Canadians have an interest in their two levels of governments observing a strict division of powers and operating separately from one another in their respective areas of exclusive jurisdiction. Finally, it should be pointed out that residents of Manitoba are among the least supportive of the devolution of power to the provinces – only Ontarians are less devolutionist. Thus, the three western provinces with most in common on this issue are Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC.14

14 It is notable, for instance, that the proportion saying that the transfer of powers from the federal to the provincial governments is a high priority increases gradually but consistently as one moves west from Ontario to BC (though nowhere is it as high as it is in Newfoundland or Quebec).

25 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

THE BALANCE OF POWER • Nonetheless, there is notable support • Very few Canadians think that their in certain areas of the country for provincial governments have too much devolution of power from the federal power. The proportion ranges from a government to provincial ones. As noted high of 12% in BC, to a low of zero in Table 1 (page 24), transferring more in Newfoundland. powers to the provinces is far from being the option most likely to be chosen as a • At the same time, the number saying that high priority for making the country work the federal government has too much better. But even if it is not a top priority, power is lower in 2001 than in previous over 40% of respondents in Quebec, years, while the proportion saying the Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC say that balance of power between the two levels their provincial government should have of government is about right has been more power.13 increasing since 1999. In Quebec, 36% of respondents say that the federal • Ontario is clearly the province that is government has too much power, down least interested in devolution of power. from 43% in 1999. The proportion of respondents saying the balance is about • One-third of Canadians (34%) think that right is up seven points since 1999 in their provincial government should give Quebec, up eight points in Alberta, and more powers to local governments in their up nine points in BC. province – that is governments of cities, towns or rural areas. Fifty-five percent think that no change is called for, and FIGURE 12 SUPPORT FOR DEVOLUTION only 9% think that their provincial 50 government should give less powers 46 46 45 43 42 41 41 to local governments. 40 38 37 36 36 35 33 32 32 29 30 27 25 25 26 24 24 23 20 18 10 0 Nfld. Maritimes Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC

TRANSFER OF POWERS TO PROVINCES IS A HIGH PRIORITY PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS SHOULD HAVE MORE POWER* FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS TOO MUCH POWER* *Note: these questions each asked to 1/2 of the sample.

13 The question was worded as follows: “in the future should the provincial governments have more power, the federal government have more power, or should things stay as they are?” Few respondents said the federal government should have more power, and over 40% in each case said that things should stay as they are now.

26 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

• Support for more powers for local FIGURE 13 SUPPORT FOR "SOVEREIGNTY-PARTNERSHIP" governments is higher in Quebec (43%) (Quebec Respondents Only. Decided Voters, With Undecided Respondents than elsewhere in the country, and higher Redistributed on a Pro Rata Basis) in Montreal (43%) than in Toronto (36%) If a referendum were held today on the same question as that asked in 1995, or Vancouver (27%). that is, sovereignty with an offer of partnership with the rest of Canada, would you vote YES or would you vote NO? • Support for more powers for local 60 50 51 governments is higher in the eastern 45 42 42 half (48%) than in the western half (38%) 40 41 40 39 of the Island of Montreal. This no doubt 30 reflects the greater opposition in the 20 western portion of the city to the 10 newly created “megacity” of Montreal. 0 Interestingly enough, while area of 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 residence within Montreal affects the YES TO SOVEREIGNTY-PARTNERSHIP (average from several surveys*) result for the question, language is not CRIC 2001 RESULT *Surveys from CROP. Number of surveys for each year: 1996 = 9; 1997 = 5; 1998 = 13; a significant factor: Anglophone and 1999 = 8; 2000 = 10; 2001 = 13. Francophone Montrealers have roughly • However, a sovereignist victory in a the same views on this question. referendum could still be possible if NO voters were convinced that a partnership SUPPORT FOR SOVEREIGNTY deal with Canada was assured. In that IN QUEBEC case, a number of NO voters say they • Fifty-four percent of Quebecers view would switch sides, enabling the “yes” sovereignty as an outdated idea, up 4% vote to rise to 49% before the from last year. redistribution of undecided voters, and a hypothetical winning 58% after • There is little desire for a renewed debate redistribution. This shows that a YES on sovereignty: only 32% say they favour victory is dependent on voters’ sense that another referendum before 2005, while a sovereign Quebec would retain some 60% are opposed. kind of association with Canada.

SOVEREIGNTY-PARTNERSHIP VS. • Recently, some sovereignist leaders CONFEDERAL UNION have been advocating that Quebec be • The idea of Quebec sovereignty is less made a sovereign country that would and less popular among Quebec voters. then enter into a confederal-style union YES support for the 1995 referendum with the rest of Canada. This option has question on sovereignty-partnership is elicited little enthusiasm from Quebec lower than in previous years: 36% before voters: on average, 39% (on two slight redistribution of undecided voters, and variations of the question) support the 39% after. Furthermore, YES supporters plan, with 51% opposed and 10% are more likely to say that they might undecided. (Note that the question change their voting intention (34%) presupposed that there would indeed be than are NO supporters (21%). a confederal union after a “yes” vote.)

27 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

• If a referendum were to be held on • In a referendum on whether or not this confederal-union option, 38% of Quebec should remain a province of Quebecers say they would vote “yes”, 51% Canada, the “yes”vote finds itself at its would vote “no” and 11% are undecided. highest level since 1998, or 70%, with After proportional redistribution of only 23% voting “no” and 7% undecided. undecided voters, 43% favour the option Support for Quebec remaining a province and 57% are opposed, results only of Canada stood at 64% in 1998, 60% in marginally higher than those obtained 1999 and 68% in 2000. It should be noted for sovereignty-partnership. here again that 38% of those who would vote “yes” to sovereignty-partnership • Only 27% believe the confederal-union would also vote in favour of Quebec option is different from sovereignty- remaining a province of Canada. partnership, while the majority (57%) sees little or no difference, and 19% say • The number who say that Quebec will they do not know. likely one day become an independent country continues to decline. This year, FIGURE 14 WILL QUEBEC BECOME INDEPENDENT? only 23% of Quebecers hold that view, while 69% believe instead that Quebec (Quebec Respondents Only) will likely remain within Canada. Do you think Quebec will probably become an independent country one day, or do you think it will probably stay in Canada? ATTACHMENT AND IDENTITY 80 69 • Within Quebec, attachment to Canada 60 61 has been on the rise over the past four 51 51 years, up from 72% in 1998 to 79% 40 39 39 this year (although the wording of the 30 23 question was changed slighty after 1999). 20 Conversely, attachment to Quebec has 0 declined somewhat over the last four 1998 1999 2000 2001 years, falling from 92% in 1998 to 85% in

PROBABLY WILL STAY IN CANADA 2001. Thus the gap between attachment PROBABLY WILL BECOME INDEPENDENT to Quebec and attachment to Canada has narrowed among Quebecers, with the OTHER REFERENDUM OPTIONS difference now only 6%. • Sixty-eight per cent of Quebecers say they would vote “no” in a referendum on • Since 1970, the percentage of Quebec outright independence; 25% would vote Francophones who identify themselves YES, and only 7% remain undecided. as “Québécois,” rather than “French Canadian,” or “Canadian,” has grown • Among those who would vote YES to from 21% to 54%. The corresponding sovereignty-partnership, a full 34% percentage for the period from 1977 say they would vote “no” to outright to 1985 stood between 36% and 39%, independence. and has remained above the 50% mark since 1990.15 This is a relatively significant shift in identity.

15 The data from prior to 1998 come from a variety of surveys, as compiled and analyzed by Maurice Pinard.

28 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

Factors Contributing to the Decline in Support for Sovereignty

How can the decline in support for sovereignty since the 1995 referendum be explained? There seems to be a number of factors at play, which will be examined briefly.

First, let us consider the changes in motivations which occurred for many Francophone voters who supported the YES side in 1995. In this respect, the traditional ethnic grievances that underlie the sovereignty option – like the sense of not being recognized as equal by Anglophones or of occupying a lesser rank in the economy – must be taken into account. Strangely enough, these feelings have changed little over time, and in some cases not at all. Where change has occurred, it is because these grievances are now proving to be less of a mobilizing force than they once were. Yet everything suggests that the feeling of a lack of recognition remains an important factor.

Among those who do not share a strong nationalist ideology, these kinds of feelings are not part of their most salient or intense concerns. It is only in times of crisis, such as with the failure of Meech, that for them somewhat different concerns, such as feelings of rejection, become more intense and widespread. Traditional grievances may also become more salient for them, without necessarily becoming shared more widely, when political leaders set an agenda, like a referendum, which forces them to consider these issues. At other times, as is the case at present, their attention is focused, temporarily for some and more permanently for others, on more immediate economic or emotional concerns, such as the well-being of their families, their jobs or health.

It is during these periods, for instance, that a vast majority of voters say they do not want another referendum, so as to avoid, it appears, a return to nationalist concerns. Similarly, when last year we asked those 1995 YES supporters who claimed to have become less sovereignist, why that was the case, a quarter stated that their interest and enthusiasm for sovereignty had diminished, that the issue was no longer topical, that their view of things had now changed and that there were other more pressing problems. For some, this may be short-lived, but the answers of others revealed a more lasting shift of opinion.

29 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

In other cases, the decline in support for sovereignty is the result of growing dissatis- faction with the option’s flag-bearer, the Parti Québécois government, over their more immediate concerns. There has always been a very strong, two-way, relationship between support for the option and support for the party. When dissatisfaction with the PQ is high, support for sovereignty tends to weaken or even disappear. Thus, slightly more than 20% of the less-sovereignist YES respondents attributed their change in attitude to dissatisfaction with the Parti Québécois, either in general or with respect to specific areas. In two thirds of the latter cases, the concern was health care.

When the Parti Québécois has been in power support for sovereignty has, at best, remained stable, during a first term in office (1976-1980; 1994-1995), or decreased, during a second term and/or after a referendum (1981-1985; 1995-2001). It is as if when the PQ is in power, ambivalent voters tend to become more nervous about the heightened possibility of a referendum. That means that were the PQ to move into opposition after the next election, there could be some resurgence of YES support, as it sometimes happened in the past. Barring any major crisis, however, there is nothing to indicate that such a revival would be major in the short term.

In addition to the abovementioned grievances, concerns and dissatisfaction, there are other changes in motivating factors that may account for the drop in support for sovereignty. It is a matter of different positive or negative incentives, or, in other words, of the gains or losses that it is believed would result from independence. Since 1990, but up until 1995 especially, there has been an increase in the anticipated economic costs of that option. All along there has also been an increase in the proportion anticipating neither gains nor losses and conversely, an important decrease in the perception of potential economic gains. Here again, slightly more than 20% of the less-sovereignist YES supporters attributed their shift in attitude to a greater anticipation of economic costs or to the feeling that sovereignty would not change things very much, that there is little to gain from it.

30 4. FEDERALISM AND NATIONAL UNITY

Multiple loyalties or feelings of attachment to Canada and Quebec are other factors that exert a direct role or a mediating one between motivations and the sovereignty option. Since 1995, the previously very high level of attachment to Quebec has dropped slightly, while the level of attachment to Canada, which had been weaker at the outset, has risen quite significantly. This has resulted in a much smaller gap between the two than was previously the case.

Finally, among the factors contributing to the decline, the reduced efforts towards political mobilization by the PQ and many sovereignist leaders and activists must be mentioned. This is obviously closely linked to the drop in popular support for sovereignty itself, which has a negative impact on the motivations of these leaders and activists, especially on their expectancy of success. But in turn this absence of leaders’ mobilization efforts increases the supporters’ demobilization. It is worth adding that in periods of reduced popular support, even the more ideological leaders and activists cannot count on easy successes. Indeed, Bernard Landry’s redoubled efforts to mobilize supporters, on taking the helm of the PQ in the spring of 2001, had negative results, until he toned down his rhetoric.

To conclude, let us mention that if the sovereignty movement currently faces serious problems, it would be a great mistake to assume that a resurgence on a longer term basis is unlikely. This remains a possibility that cannot be dismissed.

Maurice Pinard McGill University

31 5. Official Languages

FIGURE 15 SUPPORT FOR BILINGUALISM • Young people are more likely to favour two official languages: 91% of 18 to 24 A. Canada currently has two official languages – English and French. This means that all citizens can get services from the federal government in year olds support bilingualism, compared the official language that they speak. Do you strongly support, moderately with 77% of those aged 55 years support, moderately oppose, or strongly oppose this policy? 16 and over. B. Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree that (name of province) should be officially bilingual, meaning that all citizens can get • Eighty-six percent of Canadians services from the provincial government in either English or French? (including 82% of Anglophones) think NB = 83% MAN = 62% that it is important for their children to 100 96 93 95 87 84 learn to speak a second language. Among 80 79 80 76 73 76 Anglophones wishing their children to 65 60 53 learn a second language, 75% say that it should be French. Ninety percent of 40 Francophones who wish their children to 20 learn a second language say that it should 0 be English. Atlantic Que.: Que.: Ontario West Outside Que.: Francophones Anglophones Francophones • Looking only at English-speaking respon- FOR FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FOR PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT dents in the three largest provinces outside Quebec, those saying that the • Eighty-two percent of Canadians – second language their children should including no fewer than seven out of learn is French is 79% in Ontario, 69% ten in every province – support Canada’s in Alberta, and 59% in BC. official bilingualism policy, the policy that the country has two official • A majority of Canadians think that, in languages, meaning that all citizens can the years to come, the survival of the get services from the federal government Francophone or Anglophone minorities in the official language that they speak. in their province is assured. More impor- tantly, 70% of Francophones outside • Many Canadians are also agreeable to Quebec think that the survival of their their provincial government being own communities is assured (though officially bilingual, meaning that all only 25% think it is very assured). This citizens can get services from the compares to 54% of Anglophones in provincial government in either English Quebec who think that the survival of or French. Support is highest in New their community is assured. Brunswick (83%), Canada’s only officially bilingual province. Almost four out of five • Canadians inside and outside Quebec Francophones in Quebec support official hold opposing views on the security of bilingualism at the provincial level, as the French language in that province. do 96% of the province’s Anglophones. Fifty-two percent of Quebecers (and 60% Support is lower in the western provinces, of Francophone Quebecers) think that the dipping to 49% in Saskatchewan and BC. French language is threatened in Quebec, compared to only 15% of Canadians living outside Quebec.

16 This pattern is more pronounced in the provinces outside Quebec than in Quebec – that is to say, the differences among age groups are not as large in Quebec.

32 6. Aboriginal Peoples

• Fifty percent of Canadians say that few • Only 17% of Canadians say that relations or none of the land claims made by with Aboriginal peoples are improving, Aboriginal peoples are valid, while 43% compared with 24% who say they are say that many or all are valid. deteriorating. Fifty-six percent say that relations are staying about the same. • Quebecers are becoming more receptive to Aboriginal land claims – 43% say that all • The proportion saying that relations are or many such claims are valid, up eight improving is the lowest since the Portraits points since 1998. of Canada surveys began in 1998. In British Columbia, 20% currently say that • Canadians outside Quebec are becoming relations are improving, compared to 36% less receptive: in these nine provinces, in 1998. the proportion saying all or many are valid has fallen eight points since 1998, to 43%. 17

Relations with Aboriginal Peoples

A decade ago, the political fortunes of Aboriginal peoples in Canada appeared to be on the rise. After having been shut out of the negotiations that produced the Meech Lake Accord, Aboriginal leaders first contributed to its demise and then joined First Ministers at the talks that produced the Charlottetown agreement – a proposal for constitutional renewal that would have recognized the right to Aboriginal self-government.

17 Note that the movement, in opposite directions, of opinion in Quebec and opinion in the provinces outside Quebec since 1998 has meant that there has been a convergence of views. The proportion saying that many or all land claims are valid is now 43% in both cases.

33 6. ABORIGINAL PEOPLES

Ten years later – following the agreement’s defeat in a national referendum and the shelving of many recommendations made by the Royal Commission on Aboriginal Peoples – the situation looks quite different. In much of the country – notably Ontario and the Prairies – the proportion of Canadians who agree that Aboriginal land claims are valid is declining.18 Only one third of Canadians outside Quebec 19 agree that Aboriginal peoples should have some type of preferential access to hunting and fishing grounds in areas where they have traditionally lived. These attitudes exist despite the view, upheld by the courts, that Aboriginal peoples have distinct claims – indeed, constitutional rights – to resources by virtue either of treaties or of their continual occupation of land since time immemorial. And more Canadians are inclined to blame the ambitions of Aboriginal peoples themselves, rather than the reticence of the Canadian government, for the breakdown in negotiations between the two parties (the figures are 45% compared with 28%). (A sizeable portion of the public (27%) say they don’t know which party is to blame.)

Two other points are worth noting. First, the proportion of Atlantic Canadians agreeing that all or many Aboriginal land claims are valid fell by 12 points last year, most probably in response to the intense media coverage of the Supreme Court’s decision in the Marshall case and the ensuing disputes at Burnt Church. This year, in the absence of extensive media coverage, opinions returned to the level they were at in 1999. Second, it is notable that in BC, where there has been a more sustained and comprehensive public debate on Aboriginal rights in recent years, opinions on the validity of land claims are less volatile. Moreover, the proportion of British Columbians who say that relations with Aboriginal peoples are deteriorating has decreased for two years running – down seven points since 1999.20 Given what is at stake in land claims negotiations currently underway in that province, this is a positive sign, so long as it is evidence of something more than wishful thinking on the part of the public.

18 The decline in Ontario and the Prairies has been relatively sharp: a 10 point drop in Ontario and Alberta since 1998, and a larger drop in Saskatchewan. Opinion is more or less unchanged in Atlantic Canada and BC. Quebecers have become more accepting of the validity of land claims since 1998.

19 This question was not asked in Quebec this year.

20 Note that the proportion in BC saying relations are improving has also fallen, while the proportion saying that relations are staying about the same has increased.

34 7. Health Care and Social Programs

THE SURPLUS • Canadians remain split on the question FIGURE 16 SURPLUS of how to allocate whatever budgetary If governments have budgetary surpluses, which of the following three surpluses governments might run. Thirty- things should be the HIGHEST priority: cutting taxes, paying down the debt six percent would put more money into or putting more money into social programs? 50 social programs, 35% would pay down 45 43 41 41 the debt, and 27% would cut taxes. The 40 38 38 34 34 34 proportion wishing to spend the surplus 32 33 33 30 31 30 31 31 26 27 on social programs is five points higher 23 24 20 than it was last year.21 20 10 • There are clear differences of opinion 0 on this question from province to Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC

province, with debt reduction being CUTTING TAXES DEBT REPAYMENT SOCIAL PROGRAMS the most favoured option in Ontario, Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC, and spending on social programs the most HEALTH CARE favoured option in Newfoundland, • Eighty-five percent of Canadians think the Maritimes, Quebec and Manitoba. that Canada has a better health care In no province are tax cuts the system than does the US; only eight preferred option. percent think the US system is better.

• Canadians have become slightly more open to the idea of allowing privately- owned companies to deliver some health care services in Canada, and less certain that the health care system should be operated entirely as a public program. This year, 41% agreed that the private sector should have a role, compared to 36% in 2000. Nonetheless, a majority (55%) prefer that the health care system be operated entirely as a public program.

21 A likely explanation for this shift is the growing economic pessimism noted at the beginning of this report. However, those who expect the economy to get weaker are no more likely to favour spending the surplus on social programs than are other Canadians.

35 7. HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS

FIGURE 17 HEALTH CARE: OPTIONS FOR REFORM Health care costs are expected to rise in the future because of our aging population and because of the costs of new treatments and medications. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? Would you say (a) governments should significantly increase their spending on health care to cover these rising costs; (b) governments should limit the availability of some treatments or medications; or (c) governments should allow the private sector to provide some health care services to those people who can afford to pay for them. 100 • The previous question touches on the role 21 80 32 27 33 30 33 39 of the private sector in the delivery of 7 38 36 7 60 9 health care services but does not refer 9 8 13 10 10 9 directly to a parallel private health care 40 70 system that would charge fees to 55 57 62 56 20 47 48 49 51 patients. That option is raised in the next 0 question, one which produces the Canada Nfld. Maritimes Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC following two notable results. INCREASE SPENDING LIMIT SERVICES PRIVATE SERVICES • A majority (55%) says that the best way for governments to deal with the FIGURE 18 HEALTH CARE REFORM AND INCOME rising cost of health care is to signifi- cantly increase their spending in this 60 57 58 56 52 area, rather than allow privatization 50 49 or reduce services. 40 41 35 31 32 30 28 • At the same time, one out of three 20 Canadians say that the best way for 10 governments to deal with rising costs 0 is to allow the private sector to provide Less than $20K $20K - $40K $40K - $60K $60K - $80K More than $80K some health care services to those "INCOME" people who can afford to pay for them. GOVERNMENT SHOULD INCREASE SPENDING This is a significant level of support for ALLOW PRIVATE SERVICES FOR THOSE WHO CAN AFFORD TO PAY an option that breaks with the principles that underpin Canada’s public health care system.

• Not surprisingly, support for private health care rises with income.

• Support for private health care for those with the means to pay for it is highest in BC (39%) and Quebec (38%) and lowest in Ontario (27%).

36 7. HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS

Health Care: Looking for Solutions

Canadians are very attached to their health care system and clearly prefer it to the American model. Only 8% of Canadians say they prefer the American to the Canadian system, up only slightly from 3% in 1987 22. The public does not want to abandon what they understand to be the core principles of the Canadian system, namely that the system is national and publicly- funded, and that it provides Canadians with universal coverage and medical care on the basis of need.

Within the context of the public system, however, Canadians increasingly are willing to consider different options. A majority of Canadians (55%) say that their health care system should be operated entirely as a public program, but this figure is down from 61% in CRIC’s 2000 survey. Those who say instead that Canada should allow privately-owned companies to deliver some health care services in Canada now constitute a near majority in the western provinces and Quebec, while Atlantic Canadians and those in Ontario remain more committed to an entirely public system.

Canadians are very worried about the future of the health care system. They have perceived a deterioration in the quality of the system during the past decade, particularly in regards to waiting times for specialists, waiting times at emergency rooms, the availability of the best technology, and adequate numbers of doctors and nurses. For this reason, many Canadians are willing to express what I would characterize as unenthusiastic support for some aspects of privatization. However, most Canadians prefer less radical options designed to sustain rather than radically change the system.

22 Source for 1987: Environics Research Group.

37 7. HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS

In fact, many surveys have shown that a majority of Canadians say they are willing to pay more for a top quality health care system. When presented in the latest CRIC survey with a realistic array of options for dealing with the rising costs of health care, most Canadians opt to significantly increase government spending, rather than curtailing services or allowing the private sector to provide some services to those people who can afford to pay. The preference of Canadians is to achieve better quality health care by investing in the public system. However, other surveys show that Canadians believe that there are structural and organiza- tional problems with the health care system that cannot be addressed through the injection of funds alone. Most Canadians do recognize that some reform of the health care system is necessary.

These data show that Canadians support the current health care system, but are looking for ways to reform it to improve its quality. This could mean some experimentation with privatization, within the overall context of the Canadian model, or it could involve reorgani- zing the way health care is managed and delivered. Support for privatization is likely to grow unless governments address the deterioration within the system. This might require more funds, but almost certainly entails structural reforms, such as the reorganization of primary health care delivery or more fee for service for certain kinds of treatments.

Matthew Mendelsohn Queen’s University

38 7. HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL PROGRAMS

FIGURE 19 SOCIAL PROGRAMS: VIEWS OF MEN AND WOMEN

60 60 50

42 41 40 36 29 29 31 20

0 Health Care Reform: Health Care Reform: Surplus: Surplus: Governments Should Allow Private Services Pay Down Debt Put Money Into Increase Spending for Those Who Can Social Programs Afford Them

WOMEN MEN • Men and women in Canada have different views on these issues. Women are more likely to devote budgetary surpluses to increased spending on social programs, while men are more likely to choose paying down the debt. Similarly, women are more likely to say that the best way to deal with rising health care costs is for governments to significantly increase their spending, whereas men are more likely to say that the best solution is to allow the private sector to provide some health care services to those people who can afford to pay for them.

39 8. Rural Canada

• Only 37% of Canadians agree with the FIGURE 20 SUPPORT FOR FAMILY FARMS AND SMALL TOWNS proposition that best solution for small Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statements: a) if people living in small towns are having a hard town residents who are having trouble time making a living, then the best solution is for them to move to a bigger making a living is to move to a bigger city to look for a better job; b) in tough times, governments should provide city to seek a better job. Fifty-nine financial support to Canada's small family farms so that they don't go bankrupt? percent disagree. The implication is that a majority of Canadians think that a 100 88 89 better solution is to create sufficient 84 82 83 81 81 80 78 job opportunities in small town econo- 64 60 mies. Newfoundland is the only province 46 43 43 where the pattern is reversed: there, a 40 37 34 33 33 majority agrees that the best solution 20 for small town job-seekers is to move 0 to a bigger city. Nfld. Maritimes Quebec Ontario Manitoba Sask. Alberta BC

SUPPORT FAMILY FARMS (% Agree) • Residents of small towns are slightly BEST TO MOVE TO CITY FOR WORK (% Agree) more likely than those of big cities to say that their local quality of life is getting better, and slightly less likely to say that • An overwhelming majority (85%) of it is getting worse. For instance, in the Canadians agree that “in tough times, provinces outside Quebec 23, 26% of those governments should provide financial living in towns with a population of less support to Canada's small family farms than 10,000 said their quality of life so that they don't go bankrupt.” was getting better, compared with 20% Support is highest in Ontario (89%), of those living in either Toronto or the country’s most urban province, and Vancouver. Similarly, 19% in those lowest in Saskatchewan (78%). While small towns said their quality of life only a minority (20%) of respondents was getting worse, compared with 25% in Saskatchewan disagreed with the in the two big cities. proposition, this was the highest level of opposition in the country.

• More than four out of five residents of the country’s biggest cities favour government support for family farms: Toronto (89%), Montreal (84%) and Vancouver (81%).

23 Quebec respondents were surveyed by CROP, which uses a different system for classifying respondents according to community size than that used in the other provinces by Environics.

40 Conclusion

type of portrait of Canada is agreement on the need for more inter- What does this year’s survey governmental cooperation. Divergent opinions paint? Despite their continued support for on the benefits of federalism notwithstanding, free trade and for measures such as a public opinion, on the whole, is not common currency, Canadians recognize regionally fragmented. that globalization poses a challenge to the country’s independence. They are also feeling The survey does highlight several disturbing somewhat closer to the US in the wake of the trends that will bear watching in the months September 11th attacks in that country, but at to come. They include: growing economic the same time are less favorable to allowing pessimism, lower support for immigration, people to move freely across the border. These and, in some areas of the country, hardening viewpoints are not contradictory. However, attitudes toward Aboriginal land claims. they do demonstrate that Canadians resist CRIC in its periodic polls and in the autumn crude characterizations that try to place them 2002 edition of Portraits of Canada will wholly on one side of an issue or another. monitor these issues, along with those Canadians are both eager to participate in arising from continental economic integration, the continental and global economies, and globalization and the integrity of the protective of their country’s sovereignty. federation itself.

In terms of national unity, the survey reveals two distinct trends: Quebecers are becoming more supportive of federalism (and less supportive of sovereignty), while Canadians living in the West and the Atlantic region are becoming more dissatisfied with their role in Confederation. Indeed, two of the biggest shifts of opinion that Portraits of Canada tracking has detected are, on the one hand, the growing number of Quebecers who think that their province will remain a part of Canada, and, on the other hand, the declining number of Albertans who say that federalism has more advantages than disadvantages for their province.

But there are values and priorities shared by all Canadians. The most obvious relates to the importance of sharing the country’s wealth among the different regions of the country, as well as between urban and rural communities. There is also evidence of a shared commitment to bilingualism, and (to a lesser extent) the principles underlying the country’s health-care system. And there

41 ALSO AVAILABLE FROM CRIC: CRIC Paper # 1: Trade, Globalization and Canadian Values (April 2001) CRIC Paper # 2: Bridging the Divide between Aboriginal Peoples and the Canadian State (June 2001) CRIC Paper # 3: Voter Participation in Canada: Is Canadian Democracy in Crisis? (October 2001)

AVAILABLE FROM THE CENTRE FOR RESEARCH AND INFORMATION ON CANADA, ONLINE AT WWW.CRIC.CA.

Centre for Research and Information on Canada (CRIC) 2000 McGill College Avenue The CRIC Papers are Suite 250 published thanks to Montréal, Quebec H3A 3H3 1 800 363-0963 funding provided by the Fax: (514) 843-4590 Government of Canada. www.ccu-cuc.ca