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Of Canada 2001 4 THE CRIC PAPERS Portraits of Canada 2001 JANUARY 2002 Table of Contents 1 Preface 3 Highlights 4 Methodology 5 1. The Economy and the Quality of Life 7 2. Canada in a Changing World Ties to the US A Common Currency? Energy Policy Globalization 13 3. Immigration 16 4. Federalism and National Unity Equalization: A Commitment to Sharing the Wealth The Practice of Federalism: An Assessment Priorities for Change The Balance of Power Support for Sovereignty in Quebec 32 5. Official Languages 33 6. Aboriginal Peoples 35 7. Health Care and Social Programs The Surplus Health Care 40 8. Rural Canada 41 Conclusion Centre for Research and Information on Canada (CRIC) 2000 McGill College Avenue, Suite 250 Montréal, Quebec H3A 3H3 1-800-363-0963 Fax: (514) 843-4590 www.ccu-cuc.ca Ce document est aussi disponible en français. Preface latest Portraits of Canada offers Not so. The a clear picture of what unites Canadians, and what divides them. Portraits of Canada also reveals that in every part of the country, except Ontario and This annual tracking poll reveals broad areas Quebec, a majority feels that their province of agreement among Canadians on a wide neither gets the respect it deserves, nor variety of subjects that were in the news enjoys the influence that it should have. during the past year. In and of itself, this more negative con- It pinpoints established or emerging sensus considerably limits the impact of consensuses on: the abovementioned areas of agreement. • support for a common Canada-US currency But it highlights another major national • rejection of a continental energy policy consensus identified in this and other CRIC • the need to protect Canadian sovereignty polls: Canadians continue to demand, in in the face of globalization a forceful and sustained way, closer • support for equalization cooperation between the federal and • up to a certain point, the best means provincial governments. to preserve the healthcare system • support for official bilingualism and the importance of learning both official languages • the best means to improve the workings of the federation • support for the country’s farmers A foreign visitor might be forgiven for thinking that the extent of cross-country agreement means that the country is easy to govern despite significant economic, social, cultural and political differences that are manifest in its regionalism. 1 Acknowledgements CRIC wishes to acknowledge the contributions made by our associates and consultants. Portraits of Canada would not be possible without the work and energy that Donna Dasko, Claude Gauthier, Matthew Mendelsohn and Maurice Pinard each devoted to this project. In particular, we would like to thank Maurice Pinard for his assistance in drafting the section of this paper relating to the situation in Quebec. CRIC also thanks Environics Research Group for making available selected results from some of their earlier surveys. 2 Highlights CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD • Three out of five Quebecers oppose a sovereignty referendum before 2005. • As they confront globalization, most • Seventy percent of Quebecers would Canadians say that keeping the country vote “yes” to a referendum question independent is a greater challenge in asking if their province should remain coming years than keeping it united. part of Canada. • A significant majority says a common • Sixty-one percent would vote “no” to North American energy policy would the 1995 referendum question. But if harm Canada, and a majority believes that NO supporters were convinced that a free trade has resulted in Canada losing partnership with Canada was assured, control over its energy resources. a number of them would switch their • A majority now supports a common vote to “yes” – enough to give the YES Canada-US currency, but most think side a victory. it would be a bad idea for Canada to simply adopt the US dollar. PUBLIC POLICY • Canadians feel more affinity with Americans in the wake of September 11th. • There has been a change in attitudes The number who want closer ties with towards immigration: the number of the US is up. But support for the free Canadians wanting the country to accept movement of Canadian and American fewer immigrants has risen. citizens across the border with the US • In every province, a large majority has dropped sharply. supports Canada’s official languages policy. Many are also agreeable to their FEDERALISM AND province being officially bilingual. NATIONAL UNITY • The proportion saying that relations with Aboriginal peoples are improving is the • There is massive support in every lowest since the Portraits of Canada province in Canada for equalization. surveys began in 1998. •A growing number of Quebecers view •A majority says that the best way for federalism more favourably. However, governments to deal with the rising cost the number of western Canadians who of health care is to significantly increase see it as advantageous for their province their spending in this area. has fallen sharply. • An overwhelming majority – including a • In every province outside of central large majority of city-dwellers – agrees Canada, a majority says that their that in hard times, governments should province has less than its fair share of lend a helping hand to the country’s influence on national decisions, and is small family farms. not treated with the respect it deserves. • In terms of priorities for making the country work better, Canadians are more united than divided. In each major region, the two options most likely to be chosen as high priorities are increasing federal-provincial cooperation and more free votes in the House of Commons. 3 Methodology of Canada is an The results of surveys of this size have a Portraits annual survey margin of error of approximately plus or of public opinion in Canada conducted by the minus 1.8%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of Centre for Research and Information on error are larger for subsamples within the Canada (CRIC). The purpose of the survey is survey. The provincial and regional sample to track how the attitudes of Canadians have sizes are noted below. evolved on a range of issues relating to the nature and well-being of the country and its AREA SAMPLE citizens. The survey is now in its fourth year. Canada 2,940 The 2001 edition of the survey is more Newfoundland 103 authoritative than ever because it is based on Maritimes 331 the largest sample size yet: 2,940 people. As Quebec 1,001 in previous years, the telephone survey was Ontario 403 conducted in two parts. Environics Research Group surveyed 1,939 people in the nine Manitoba 225 provinces outside of Quebec between October Saskatchewan 225 1 and October 10, 2001, while CROP surveyed Alberta 327 1,001 people in Quebec between September 28 BC 325 and October 14, 2001. The data from the two parts of the survey were combined in order to calculate results for the whole of Canada. The results have been weighted so as to reflect the actual distribution of the Canadian population (according to the last census) based on sex, age, province of residence, and – within Quebec – language use and region of residence within the province. 4 1. The Economy and The Quality of Life FIGURE 1 THE ECONOMY AND THE QUALITY OF LIFE In the next few years, do you expect the Canadian economy to become stronger, to become weaker or to stay about the same? Thinking about the local community in which you live – that is your city, town or rural area – do you think that the quality of life there is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 60 54 50 43 40 34 30 24 21 20 19 10 0 The Economy The Quality of Life BECOME STRONGER GETTING BETTER STAY ABOUT THE SAME STAYING ABOUT THE SAME BECOME WEAKER GETTING WORSE • Canadians are more pessimistic about the economy than they were six months ago. Thirty-four percent say that the economy will become weaker in the years to come, up from the 25% recorded in a CRIC survey conducted in March 2001. (In the present survey, 19% say the economy will get stronger, and 43% say it will stay about the same.) • Canadians are more optimistic when asked about the quality of life in their local community. Twenty-four percent say it is getting better, compared with 21% who say it is getting worse, and 54% who say it is about the same. • Residents of Alberta are more likely than other Canadians to say that their local quality of life is getting better. The reverse is true in neighbouring Saskatchewan: residents of that province are more likely than those elsewhere to say that the quality of life in their local community is getting worse. 5 1. THE ECONOMY AND THE QUALITY OF LIFE Saskatchewan and Alberta: Neighbours on Different Paths Saskatchewan and Alberta are a study in contrasts. In Saskatchewan, many more people say that the quality of life in their local community is getting worse (31%) rather than getting better (16%). The reverse is true in Alberta, where many more people say their quality of life is getting better (31%) rather than getting worse (14%). Similarly, residents of Saskatchewan are more likely than other Canadians to be contemplating a move away from the province, whereas Albertans are among those least likely to be doing so. Only 57% of Saskatchewan residents (compared with 79% of Albertans) say they are very likely to be living in their province five years from now, and 12% (compared with only 3% of Albertans) say it is very unlikely that they will. This supports the findings on western Canada released by the Canada West Foundation earlier this year – although the present nation-wide survey adds that residents of Saskatchewan are less likely to say that they will stay in their province than are residents of any other province of the country, including those in Newfoundland and the Maritimes.1 CRIC’s findings on different outlooks in Saskatchewan and Alberta also reinforce the grounds for the Foundation’s concern about growing disparities among western provinces.2 1 Loleen Berdahl, Looking West: A Survey of Western Canadians (Calgary: Canada West Foundation, 2001), pp.
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