The West In Canada Research Series

Whither Western Alienation? Shifting Patterns of Western Canadian Discontent with the Federal Government

Loleen Berdahl, Ph.D. Research Fellow

October 2010

Contents

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian Attitudes Toward the Federal Government

Partisan Differences in Western Canadian Attitudes Toward the Federal Government

The West in Context: National Attitudes Toward the Federal Government

Conclusion

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This report is part of Canada West Foundation’s the West in Canada Project Research Paper Series. The series is edited by Robert Roach, Director of the West in Canada Project. This paper was prepared by Canada West Foundation Research Fellow Dr. Loleen Berdahl. The opinions expressed in this document are those of the author only and are not necessarily those of the Canada West Foundation’s Board of Directors, advisors or funders. Permission to use or reproduce this report is granted for personal or classroom use without fee and without formal request provided that it is properly cited. Copies may not be made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage. The report can be downloaded at no charge from Canada West Foundation’s website (www. cwf.ca).

© 2010 Canada West Foundation ISBN 1-897423-70-7 Contents Whither Western Alienation? 1

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian Introduction Attitudes Toward the Federal Government Discussions of often make reference to the sentiment of  Partisan Differences regional discontent with the federal government, more commonly referred in Western Canadian to as “western alienation.” Surveys have found that many western Attitudes Toward the Canadians feel that their provinces are treated poorly in the Canadian Federal Government federal system. This regional sense of grievance reflects a larger historical sense of economic exploitation by , and a desire to increase The West in Context: National Attitudes the influence of the western provinces in national decision-making. Toward the Federal Western Canadian discontent shifts over time: in the 1970s and the early Government 1980s, regional discontent was high, fueled by policy disputes (notably Conclusion with respect to energy policy) and limited western electoral representation

Key Findings

 Regional discontent in western Canada (as measured by respondents’ perceptions of how their province is treated by the federal government) declined between 2004 and 2008.  Declining levels of discontent with the federal government are particularly seen in BC and Alberta: in 2004, over half of Albertans and over six in ten British Columbians stated that their province is treated worse than other provinces; by 2008 less than one-quarter of Albertans and less than four in ten British Columbians stated this opinion.  Among western Canadian supporters of the Conservative Party, discontent with the federal government fell by 37 percentage points between 2004 and 2008. This decline reconfigured the partisan nature of discontent in western Canada: by 2008, New Democratic Party supporters were the most likely to state discontent with the federal government, followed by Liberal Party supporters, while Conservative Party supporters were the most satisfied with their province’s treatment by the federal government.  Although discontent with the federal government is declining in western Canada, it is rising in and holding steady in Atlantic Canada.. While western Canadians were the most likely to report discontent in 2004, by 2008 it was Atlantic Canadians who registered the highest levels of discontent. Contents Whither Western Alienation? 2

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian in the governing Liberal caucus. Regional discontent subsided in the mid- Attitudes Toward the 1980s when western Canada had strong electoral representation in the Federal Government Mulroney Progressive Conservative government—only to re-emerge in Partisan Differences the early 1990s. in Western Canadian What is the current state of regional discontent in western Canada? Is Attitudes Toward the western discontent subsiding? The Canadian Election Studies of 2004, Federal Government 2006 and 2008 allow some insight into how regional discontent may be 1 The West in Context: changing in western Canada. Conducted during and immediately after National Attitudes federal elections, the Canadian Election Studies often repeat survey Toward the Federal questions to allow for the tracking of changes over time. One survey Government question repeated across the three election studies taps into feelings of discontent. Respondents were asked, “In general, does the federal  Conclusion government treat your province better, worse, or about the same as other provinces?”2 Respondents who report that their province is treated worse than other provinces can be seen as expressing discontent with . It should be noted that the question asks about how the federal government treats one’s province, and not how the larger western Canadian region is treated. It should also be noted that other possible dimensions of regional discontent, such as the perception that one’s province does not receive its fair share of federal revenue transfers, are outside the scope of this analysis.

1 The fieldwork of the 2008 Canadian Election Surveys was conducted by the Institute for Social Research (ISR) at York University and the study was financed by Elections Canada. The principal co-investigators were Elisabeth Gidengil (McGill University), Joanna Everitt, (University of New Brunswick—Saint John), Patrick Fournier (University of ) and Neil Nevitte (). Neither the Institute for Social Research, Elections Canada nor the Canadian Election Survey Team are responsible for the analyses and interpretations presented here. 2 This question was asked in the 2004 and 2006 campaign period surveys and in the 2008 post-election survey. Contents Whither Western Alienation? 3

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian Provincial Differences in Western Canadian Attitudes Toward the Federal Government Attitudes Toward the Federal Government

 Partisan Differences As Figure 1 shows, western Canadian discontent has shifted over time. in Western Canadian In 2004, discontent was high in BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan, with over Attitudes Toward the half of all residents in those provinces stating that that federal government Federal Government treated their province worse than other provinces. Discontent was lower The West in Context: in Manitoba, with four in ten residents stating this opinion. National Attitudes In less than two years, we see the beginning of changes in western Toward the Federal Canadian attitudes. Most significantly, discontent in BC drops by fourteen Government percentage points from the June 2004 election to the January 2006 election. Conclusion Discontent falls less dramatically in Alberta (a decline of five percentage points), holds steady in Saskatchewan, and increases very slightly in Manitoba.

Figure 1: Province Treated by Federal Government, 2004, 2006 and 2008 (%) Question: Does the federal government treat your province better, worse, or about the same as other provinces?

British Columbia Alberta 80 80

63.3 56.2 60 60 52.5 51.3 49.4 45.8 41.3 40 36.4 40 38.5 33.0 24.1 23.5 20 20 11.5 3.7 4.4 3.9 6.6 7.1 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2004 2006 2008 n=626 n=589 n=569 n=437 n=408 n=226

Better About the same Worse

Saskatchewan Manitoba 80 80

59.8 60.7 55.8 60 60 48.2 45.1 44.7 44.8 43.3 39.6 40 40 28.0 31.6 32.0 20 20 5.6 6.0 5.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2004 2006 2008 n=214 n=206 n=193 n=217 n=203 n=172

Source: Canada Election Studies 2004, 2006, 2008, as derived by author. Results are based on unweighted data.

Contents Whither Western Alienation? 4

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian Attitudes Toward the Federal Government The picture changes again by the October 2008 election. In all four western  Partisan Differences provinces, discontent is lower in 2008 than it was in 2006 or 2004. For BC in Western Canadian and Alberta, discontent fell by 27 and 28 percentage points respectively Attitudes Toward the between the 2004 and 2008 federal elections; these changes indicate Federal Government very large shifts in public perceptions. For Saskatchewan, the number of residents stating that their province is treated worse by the federal The West in Context: National Attitudes government declined by fifteen percentage points between 2004 and 2008. Toward the Federal Discontent also declined by eight percentage points in Manitoba. Government The change in Albertans’ discontent with the federal government is Conclusion particularly notable. While in 2004 over half of Albertans reported discontent, by 2008 less than one-quarter of Albertans stated that their province is treated worse than other provinces. Furthermore, Albertans are more likely than residents of the other three western provinces to state that their province is treated better than other provinces. Contents Whither Western Alienation? 5

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian Partisan Differences in Western Canadian Attitudes Toward the Federal Government Attitudes Toward the Federal Government

Partisan Differences An important difference between 2004 and 2008, of course, is the political in Western Canadian party forming the federal government. In the 2004 election, western Attitudes Toward the Canadians answering the survey question likely reflected not only upon Federal Government the six month tenure of Paul Martin’s Liberal government, but also on their perceptions of their province’s treatment under Jean Chretien’s The West in Context: Liberal government between 1993 and 2003. In the 2006 election, National Attitudes western Canadians likely considered both their province’s treatment Toward the Federal under Martin’s minority Liberal government and the larger issue of the Government “Sponsorship Scandal,” which concerned the misuse of federal funds in . In 2008, western Canadians would have reflected on their Conclusion province’s treatment during the two years of ’s minority Conservative government.

To what extent do changes in discontent reflect partisan differences? The Canadian Election Studies asked respondents, “In federal politics, do you usually think of yourself as a Liberal, Conservative, N.D.P, Bloc Quebecois, or none of these?” As Figure 2 illustrates, in 2004 discontent

Figure 2: Partisan Differences in Discontent (West as a whole), 2004, 2006 and 2008 (%) Question: Does the federal government treat your province better, worse, or about the same as other provinces?

Conservative Liberal 80 80 67.0 55.7 60.1 Worse 60 60 54.0 About the same 48.8 50.0 43.9 Better 39.5 40 35.1 40 34.6 29.8 22.3 20 20 7.1 2.1 2.2 5.0 2.4 5.3 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2004 2006 2008 n=188 n=185 n=456 n=123 n=114 n=211

Better About the same Worse 34.6 NDP Green 80 80

57.7 60 60 48.8 48.9 42.5 42.5 46.2 40 40 35.9 32.4

20 20 5.6 7.7 2.5 1.7 n/a n/a 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2004 2006 2008 n=71 n=80 n=174 n=39

Source: Canada Election Studies 2004, 2006, 2008, as derived by author. Green Party identifiers are not included in the Figure in 2004 and 2006 due to the extremely small number of cases. Contents Whither Western Alienation? 6

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian was seen across supporters of the three major federal parties. Discontent Attitudes Toward the was strongest among Conservative supporters, with two-thirds of Federal Government western Canadians who identified with the Conservative Party reporting Partisan Differences discontent with how their province was treated by the federal government. in Western Canadian However, it is also seen that almost six in ten New Democrats and almost Attitudes Toward the half of all Liberals reported discontent in 2004. Federal Government In January 2006, after 18 months of Martin’s minority Liberal government, The West in Context: discontent was down by roughly ten percentage points for supporters for National Attitudes all three parties. Conservative supporters remained the most discontented, Toward the Federal and Liberal supporters remained the least discontented. Government A new picture emerges in 2008. After over two and a half years of Harper’s Conclusion minority Conservative government, a large change in Conservative public opinion is evident. By the October 2008 federal election, only three in ten Conservative supporters stated that the federal government treated their province worse than other provinces. This 37 percentage point decline reconfigured the partisan nature of discontent in western Canada: by 2008, New Democrats were the most likely to state discontent, followed by Liberals, while Conservatives were the most satisfied with their province’s treatment by the federal government. Contents Whither Western Alienation? 7

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian The West in Context: National Attitudes Attitudes Toward the Federal Government toward the Federal Government

 Partisan Differences To what extent are western Canadian attitudes toward the federal in Western Canadian government reflective of national attitudes? As Figure 3 shows, atthe Attitudes Toward the national level there was a modest drop (five percentage points) in feelings Federal Government of discontent between 2004 and 2008. However, this national picture hides The West in Context: a considerable amount of regional variation. National Attitudes Looking at the West as a region, we see that discontent declined by over Toward the Federal Government twenty percentage points between 2004 and 2008. Discontent also fell in the province of Quebec, although more modestly than in the West: in 2008, Conclusion

Figure 3: Regional Differences in Discontent, 2004, 2006 and 2008 (%) Question: Does the federal government treat your province better, worse, or about the same as other provinces?

West Ontario 80 80

55.8 60 60 53.0 50.1 49.1 44.5 47.8 39.5 40 34.7 40 30.3 29.1 28.7 24.6 18.8 20 20 15.5 11.4 5.2 4.3 5.2 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2004 2006 2008 n=1,494 n=1,406 n=1,160 n=1,318 n=1,231 n=1,177

Quebec Atlantic Canada 80 80 62.1 60 54.0 53.7 60 47.1 46.3 46.1 41.9 43.9 44.5 40 40 30.9 32.4 23.8 20 20 9.7 9.2 9.4 5.0 4.2 2.0 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2004 2006 2008 n=1,048 n=1,013 n=849 n=463 n=408 n=503

National 80 Better About the same 60 53.2 41.6 46.3 Worse 40 36.5 35.2 31.6

20 13.6 11.7 7.7 0 2004 2006 2008 n=4,323 n=4,058 n=3,689

Source: Canada Election Studies 2004, 2006, 2008, as derived by author. Contents Whither Western Alienation? 8

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian just under one-quarter of Quebeckers felt their province is treated worse Attitudes Toward the than other provinces, compared to close to one-third in 2006 and three in Federal Government ten in 2004. Partisan Differences However, in Atlantic Canada feelings of discontent remained largely in Western Canadian consistent between 2004 and 2008. While western Canadians were the most Attitudes Toward the Federal Government likely to report discontent in 2004, by 2008 it was Atlantic Canadians who registered the highest levels of discontent. At the same time, discontent in The West in Context: Ontario was on the rise. In 2004, only 15% of Ontarians stated that their National Attitudes province is treated worse than other provinces by the federal government. Toward the Federal By 2008, this number had almost doubled. Government Overall, then, by 2008 discontent appeared to be declining strongly in Conclusion western Canada and modestly in Quebec, but holding strong in Atlantic Canada and rising in Ontario. Are these trends continuing into 2010? A recent report by the Mowatt Centre found that, on a number of measures, Ontario discontent is rising over time.3 The Mowatt Centre report also finds that discontent is increasing in Atlantic Canada, Quebec and the West, with the extent of the changes over time varying with both by the survey question asked and by region.

3 Matthew Mendelsohn and J. Scott Matthews. 2010. The New Ontario: The Shifting Attitudes of Ontarians Toward the Federation. Toronto: Mowatt Centre for Policy Innovation. Contents Whither Western Alienation? 9

Key Findings

Introduction

Provincial Differences in Western Canadian Conclusion Attitudes Toward the Federal Government Does the decline in western Canadian discontent suggest that “western Partisan Differences alienation” is disappearing? Probably not: instead, the changes in in Western Canadian discontent between 2004 and 2008 simply demonstrate that these attitudes Attitudes Toward the shift over time. Here, the perceptions of former Prime Minister Paul Federal Government Martin are likely correct: writing about an interview with Paul Martin in 2007, the Globe and Mail’s Roy MacGregor reported that “[Martin] has The West in Context: come to feel that Western alienation is something that ebbs and flows. National Attitudes Toward the Federal It’s not entirely without merit, but it may also be a permanent part of the 4 Government Canadian condition.”

Conclusion Western discontent does indeed ebb and flow, and the Canadian Election Study data suggest that western dissatisfaction with the federal government was at a low point in 2008. But if western discontent is in fact “a permanent part of the Canadian condition,” it is reasonable to assume that these sentiments may resurface.5

4 Roy MacGregor. 2007. “Paul Martin’s New Mission.” The Globe and Mail, July 28, 2007. 5 A recently published study suggests that changing demographics may alter attitudes toward the federal government. Specifically, immigrants from “non-traditional source countries” tend to be “more federally oriented than the local populations in their province.” Thus, increased immigration may reduce discontent with the federal government in western Canada, as well as in other regions. See Antoine Bilodeau, Stephen White and Neil Nevitte. 2010. “The Development of Dual Loyalities: Immigrants’ Integration to Canadian Regional Dynamics.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 43: 3 (September 2010), 515-544. 10

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