Jernbanens Rolle Og Fremtid I Nord-Norge

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Jernbanens Rolle Og Fremtid I Nord-Norge Jernbanens rolle og fremtid i Nord-Norge Bjørn Kanstad UIT/RRM AS Innblikk i jernbanesektoren - utfordringer for Nordlandsbanen Transportsystemer person og gods • Markeder • Samspill og konkurranse mellom trafikkslag Ytelser, fotavtrykk og miljøeffekter – om snørr og bart i teknologivalg Strategier og muligheter • Nordlandsbanen? • Nord -Norgebanen? • Øst -Vest? • Arbeidsdeling mellom trafikkslag – satsing på andre sektorer? • Nordnorsk samling - samarbeide mellom regioner – en utopi? • Hånden på rattet – hvordan få innblikk, representasjon og oppnå ivaretagelse av nordnorske interesser – i tide? © Björn Kanstad 20181009 CV Bjørn Kanstad © Björn Kanstad 20181009 EURO 4000 – introducing strongest diesel-electric unit in Europe 2005 – 2008 earmarking the 2 very first built by Vossloh Valencia (now Stadler), for Scandinavia (and later 6 more) - with adaptions for Scandinavian climate © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Intermodalitet lastbærere • NATO • Formater/profiler vekselbeholdere (Posten mm) • Initiativ til piggy-back (P407) i Norge • Lasteløsninger tømmertransporter © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Also passenger transport • Capacity Manager on the Norwegian Network 1996 - 2002 • Various regional commuter projects • Interaction infrastructure - new passenger train products Norway and Sweden • New timetables for national tilting train concept • Adaption of national timetables for central infrastructure incl opening of HST connection to Oslo International Airport Gardermoen 1998 • Coordination regional public transport systems/national rail system • National Transportation Planning NTP • Private project OBAS Unionsexpressen 2008 – first wingtip competitor Oslo - Stockholm © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Hva er egentlig norsk jernbane © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Varetransport i Norge, før: Engroslagre i hver by Ledetider båt, 7 – 14 dager Lager volum Dimensjonering for båt/bil Snittbeholdning for båt/bil Dimensjonering for bane/bil Snittbeholdning for bane/bil Omløpshastigheter (eks) Døgn Lager for 2xbåt: snitt 4 dager++ Ledetider bane/bil 2 dager Lager for 6xbane: snitt 1,5 dag++ I tillegg varelager underveis båt>>bane Ledetider produsent – butikk båt ca 2 uker Dessuten sanering lagerstrukturer – færre lagre, raskere/bedre bildistribusjon © Björn Kanstad 20181009 12 ARE/NRE-trafikken Østlandet – Narvik/Nord-Norge 9 3 24 06 12 18 24 06 12 18 24 06 12 6 Leverandør Alnabru GT Oslo Narvik GT Tromsø bestilling leveringer Ledetid < 2 døgn Kunde distribusjon © Björn Kanstad 20181009 ARE – Arctic Rail Express • Forslag 1991/prosjektstart 05.1992/start 04.1993 • Daglig! Nå 2 (store) ARE-tog pr dag pr retning • Kombitrafikk og bilvogner, 220.000 tonn fersk fisk • 1950 km Alnabru – Narvik via Laxå/Örebro, Ånge og Boden, 600 km omvei, men elektriske tog koster pr K time og ikke pr kilometer K • 26,5 timer kjøretid • Gjennomsnittsfart 74 km/h – raskeste K grensepasserende godstog i Europa • Lengste direkte togforbindelse/lokomløp i Europa R R • Verdensrekord vognomløp, ca 300.000 km/år • Ca 60.000 TEU, ca 15% av norsk kombitrafikk, ca 25% av omsetning • Fått konkurranse fra OBAS/CargoLink fra 2007 og K OBAS2 Schenker (NRE) fra 2011, ytterligere 1-2 tog pr dag. • Narvik logistikksenter i Nord-Norge, prioritet NTP. R Forsyningssikkerhet. Dobbelspor? Forlenge NLB? • Konsekvenser for norsk transportsektor (sjø ++) ARE1+NRE K R K ARE2 K K © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Et godt vegsystem er viktig - uansett 60 tonn «modulvogntog»: +20% lastvekt +30% volum © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Persontrafikk - Norge bundet opp kapital i lite effektivt materiell Annen sammenligning Bombardier Talent 3-vognsett 2-vognsett 150 plasser 87 plasser 115 tonn 82 tonn 1520 kW 596 kW Elektrisk (80-85% virkn. grad) Diesel (ca 30% virkn. grad + utslipp) Krenging (div. problemer) © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Trafikkavtalen Staten – NSB 2018 Landsbasis: 74 mill. reisende inkl. Flytoget Off kjøp 3,3 mrd inkl. Gjøvikbanen • Snitt tilskudd pr reise kr 45 Infrastrukturkostnader 23 mrd • Samlet tilskudd pr reise kr 351 Nordlandsbanen: • Konkuranseevne - fremtidig rolle? • Bærekraftig ressursbruk/infrastruktur? • Bærekraftig miljøregnskap? • Trafikkeringstilskudd 253 MNOK, ca 500 pr reise. Politisk forsvarlig på sikt? • Regionreform – annen prioritering etter evt. ansvarsoverføring? • Forbedringsmuligheter? Forbedringsnødvendigheter! © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Vinn eller forsvinn for Nordlandsbanen! • I dag lav N/K – og flere utfordringer • Ny hovedflyplass Rana • Ny veg/E6 • Ny kjøretøyteknologi på veg Forlenge noen X-spor pluss etpar nye, og hvor ble det av rimelig fjernstyring? Elektrifisering eller el-hybridløsninger • Miljø • Kjøretider • Økonomi trafikkutøvere • Togvekter gods • Omløp materiell Bedre baneløsninger i Bodø og Salten Nytt materiell – andre operasjoner • Nye operasjoner, nye energibærere • Nye regiontog og pendlerprodukter • Annet nattogsprodukt? Forlenge til Narvik? © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Miljøavtrykk og teknologisprang © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Ressurser og eneregibruk – et skip er ikke bare et skip • Politikken full av interessentgrupper og dogmer – ofte mot bedre vitende • Tog er ikke utslippsfritt – spesielt ikke passasjertrafikk med dieseltog! • Biltransport er teknologisk miljøledende, bedre enn sitt rykte – ofte best! • Store og langsomme skip best for gods – men bare hvis godt utnyttet og ved store/tunge laster med tilhørende terminaler og logistikk • Hurtiggående sjøtransport er miljøversting, spesielt hurtigbåter!! konstant motstand, installert effekt brukes hele tiden, og lange driftsperioder lenge til vesentlig bedre teknologi Både hurtigbåter og stykkgodsbåter fører mye tara og luft, lav utnyttelse, må holde ruter værutsatt, sløyfing anløp, mye skader vanskelig/umulig å kombinere Lo-Lo og Ro-Ro i samme små og frekvente båter få terminaler gir fortsatt mye bilforsling ledetider og logistikk motiverer godsvolumer fra skip til lastebil på hele nord-sør aksen © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Short-Sea Shipping og energibærere Bluewater shipping bruker billigste drivstoff – ofte destillasjonsrest – enorme utslipp Kystgods med Norlines - LNG – en teknologirelativ reduksjon på 20% CO2 er bra, men: Båten er 50% større enn før Fortsatt lav frekvens og lange ledetider – utilfredsstillende varelogistikk Dimensjonert for hele omløpet Kontinentet/Sør-Norge/Vest-Norge/Nord-Norge Høy hastighet gir høyt energiforbruk uansett energibærer Varierende/lav utnyttelse • Stykkgods og partilast – lite vekt, mye luft • LoLo og RoRo – vekt lastbærere, ikke samme miljøstatistikk som for bulk • Må gå i rute – kontraheres ikke kun til oppdrag med høy utnyttelse © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Energibærere for transport – teknologiskiftet har startet Karbonater - CO2 Tungolje • Energibærere kan ikke • Kullkraft betraktes isolert – alt er • Diesel én energipool • LNG •bruk mindre energi ! •bruk rett energibærer ! Elektrisistet • Ikke utslippfritt, utslipp i hht kraftmiks • Stiv og kostbar infrastruktur • Sårbar grid – hele systemet må virke unisont • Batteriteknologi medfører betydelige ressurs- og miljøavtrykk i LCC-perspektiv • Vekt og ladetid – batterier ikke så egnet for tungtransport/nyttetransport • Mulige hybridløsninger (også vegtransport!) Hydrogen • Ikkeno’ CO2 – kretsløp kan begrenses til kun vann H20 • Biprodukt petrokjemisk industri • Elektrolyse gir synergier mot bl.a. sentralvarme, fiskeoppdrett, diverse prosessindustri • Kan enkelt kombineres med helt fornybare kilder – bl.a. vindkraft! • Egnet for hybridløsninger H – batteridrift - elektrifisering • Anvendte løsninger finnes i regulær drift Utfordringer mobilitet, distribusjon og kapital/vekt – krever regionale pilotinitativ • © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Persontog ytelser – kjøretid, effektivitet, miljø Småskala tog, og spesielt dieseltog: • Ytelser? • Belegg/marked? • Miljø? Bombardier Talent • Kostnader? Elektrisk versjon • Teknologipotensialer vs vegtransport? 3 vg 150 seter Tog veier mye pr sete Tog trenger høy effekt i stigninger, og ved start/hastighetsøkning – diesel har handicap Egenvekt pr sete kg/pax 50% belegg Traksjonseffekt pr tonn (kW/t) Bil (2 pass) Bil (2 pass) Buss Buss BM93 (Talent Di) BM93 (Talent Di) Di4+8 vg Di4+8 vg Di4+6 vg Di4+6 vg Di3+5 vg Di3+5 vg Talent (el) 3vg Talent (el) 3vg X50 Regina 3vg X50 Regina 3vg X50 Regina 2vg X50 Regina 2vg El18+6 vg El18+6 vg BM69E BM69E BM70 (ICE) BM70 (ICE) BM72 (Flytoget, 3vg) BM72 (Flytoget, 3vg) BM73 (Signatur) BM73 (Signatur) BM73B BM73B BM74 (Flirt region) BM74 (Flirt region) BM75 (Flirt lokal) BM75 (Flirt lokal) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 © Björn50,0 Kanstad60,0 2018100970,0 CO2-analog energibruk fra norsk landtrafikk Brutto energiavtrykk for relevante reisemåter (buss=region/ekspressbuss) Belegg gjenspeiler kapasitetsstivhet over døgnet Simulert 10 km stoppintervall med 50 høydemeter 1,5 % stigning og fall underveis Utslippseffekt km/h Akselerasjon og effektprofiler pr passasjer kW pr passasjer 140 200 V Bil V Buss V Bm93 V Bm75 180 120 E Bil 35% E Buss 50% E Bm93 40% E Bm75 30% 160 100 140 120 80 100 60 80 40 60 40 20 20 0 0 15 25 35 45 55 65 Sekunder fra påstigning © Björn Kanstad 20181009 Energibruk og utslipp fra dagens landtransportmidler Energibruk og utslipp pr passasjerkm (ikke hensyntatt tilvirkning av kjøretøyet) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Bil - elektrisk Bil - diesel Buss - diesel Tog - diesel Tog - elektrisk Levert energi Wh/pass.km CO2 utslipp gram/pass.km CO2 fra NVE nasjonal varedeklarasjon (kraft uten opprinnelsesgaranti) Men hva med morgendagens vegtransport: • forbedringsdynamikken er nå større på veg enn på bane, fly og båt • et teknologisprang
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