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Discounts Helping Sales Great Wall (2333 HK - (2333HK Great Wall BUY) HK-GAC (2238 SELL) – HK Dongfeng (489 U-PF) HK-BYD (1211 SELL) mentioned: Companies Autos China 2012 10 October (86) 2120205807 George Yang (86) 1059652126 [email protected] Scott Laprise www.clsa.com Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, CapIQ and themarkets.com -CLSAthemarkets.com Find and CapIQ Reuters, Thomson our from Bloomberg, on andprofit research [email protected] FIRST LAST 10/14/12 06:36:04 AMHong Kong Highpower Source: CLSA Asia-PacificMarkets stilldeclining fundamentals but recover dealers asJapanese Trading upside q q q q q Sector de-ratingriskremains q q q Luxury discountunchanged q q q Non-Japanese discounts stable andsales up q q q Japan automakerspicking up economy. tightened a on demand lesser amid on thecontinue will negative as ASP deterioration we sector think we remain Overall automakers. for the Japanese especially discounting, the Golden Week holidays and decreasing inventory declines on the biggest remains the risk. during saw recover sales back Dealerships of consumer sentiment is and poor, still downside risk in the form of recover, automakersASP sales as While Japanese for potential see we upside Sector outlook Chinese Auto Discounts helping -20.00% -18.00% -16.00% -14.00% -12.00% -10.00% BYD (SELL) consensus. and15.06xPE2013 istradingat19.79xPE2012 consensus. 5.53xPE2012 and4.68xPE2013 GAC (SELL) at Thecompanyistrading and9.8xPE13CL. istradingat12.1xPE12CL 4.95xPE2013 consensus. Dongfeng (U-PF) istradingat7.3xPE12CLand6.6xPE13CL and consensus. and 12.09xPE2012 and11.01xPE2013 at5.6xPE2012 Great WallMotor (BUY)and 9.5xPE13CL at12.4xPE12CL istrading andat consensus. at9.96xPE2012 and8.54xPE2013 The sectoristrading 21%to15%. decreased from madeA4LandA6L.TheA7discount discountondomestic Audi offers12% inventory. with little atthemoment have nodiscount Brilliance BMWsedans isabout10%. theimported7series is about8%,anddiscounton BMW onlyoffersdiscounts sedans. onimported 5series Thediscountonimported space andoptions. modelhas Thesuperb a about16%ofMSRP. Rmb40kdiscount, popularcomparedSVW Passatismore withlessinterior even toSVWSkodaSuperb proudofthecar. discountandsalesstaff SVW Passathas8% board. to10%discountacrossthe around 8% offered Non-Japanese autobrands and wethinkthesituation likelylastabout3months. will marketsharetonon-Japaneseautomakers are losing The Japaneseautomakers with to 12%from Camryat14%compared our lastvisitandThe dealerships, the however, Accordat discounts increasing reported 16%. visit comparedtoourlast decreasing. automakers andinventory theJapanese picking upfor westartedtoseecarsales visits, During ourdealership -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% Aug-12 Aug-12 Aug-12 DFM stock performance since Aug 24th 2012 UPF Call 2012 UPF Aug 24th since performance DFM stock Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 evalu@tor Sep-12 Sep-12 sa Sep-12 proprietary database at clsa.com database proprietary Sep-12 les Sep-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Prepared for: ThomsonReuters Sep-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Oct-12 Discounts helping sales Chinese Auto Discounts helping sales – auto dealership visits post holidays Sales improved during We visited SVW (include Skoda), SGM, GAC Honda, GAC Toyota, DFM Honda, October national holiday Audi and BMW dealerships in Shanghai yesterday and GAC Toyota in Beijing at cost of high level of after we came back from the national holiday. All of the non-Japanese brands discount saw an increase in sales compared to the same period last year. However the sales staff complained profitability may not go up as they were offering big discounts from the middle of September in order to attract consumers. The dealers said they are likely going to cut back discounts by the end of the year as there will likely be more buyers with demand to pick up. We do not agree as we do not see improvement in the overall economy, which will improve consumer spending. Most Chinese consumers are expecting less income or at least no increase in wealth in 2012 and 2013. We expect the discount level to at least continue until the end of this year. On a long-term view we remain positive on the auto sector as we do think there is a strong desire to own cars and consumers are in good financial shape. But with the government maintaining a tightened stance on the economy negative sentiment will remain, with car sales growth low at around 0% YoY. We are seeing some signs of loosening but little impact thus far. Sentiment is the key and for this we will need a strong government stance. The Japanese brands were offering around 10% discount below Rmb200k. The Japanese brands were offering around 15% discount to automobiles above Rmb200k. The other non-Japanese mid to high end brands were offering around 8% to 10% discount all across the line. Luxury brands are now cutting back on discount. Audi dealerships are offering 12% discount on A4L and A6L model. BMW only offers discounts on imported models: imported 5 series has an Rmb50k discount and imported 7 series got around 10% discount. The Japanese automakers had nearly no customers during our visit. The sales staff said they did see a sales decline compared to August. They said they had customers cancelling orders in order to buy the alternative automobiles from the German, American and Korean brands. They also mentioned that the impact on Japanese brand sales in Shanghai caused by the dispute over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands was mild compared to other cities, as people in Shanghai are less worried their Japanese automobiles will be destroyed by angry mobs demonstrating against Japan. They expect the same brands to perform worse in other cities. At the Beijing Toyota dealer they did see a slowdown in sales but now sales are returning. We did not expect this issue to last and we think there may be some overhang for the next month or two. We also highlight that most dealerships mentioned a decrease in inventory during the national holiday period. 10 October 2012 [email protected] 2 [email protected] FIRST LAST 10/14/12 06:36:04 AM Hong Kong Highpower Prepared for: ThomsonReuters Discounts helping sales Chinese Auto Japanese autos saw sales declining We visited GAC Honda, GAC Toyota and DFM Honda dealerships in Shanghai. The dealerships were all empty during our visit except DFM Honda which had one group of customers. The dealers said the protests in Shanghai were mild compared to other cities so their customers were not so worried about the safety of their automobiles. GAC Honda – Accord gets 16% discount, worse than before The GAC Honda dealership had no customer during our visit. The dealership was offering Rmb40k off on the Rmb259k Honda Accord, about 16% of discount. The Honda city has about Rmb13k off which was about 10% of discount. The sales staff said inventory went down during the national holiday as the automakers were sending them fewer shipments. They said they were not clear whether the factories will continue to ship fewer shipments. If the automakers try to push inventory to them again, they will have to cut ASP more in order to sell. Figure 1 Figure 2 Accord discount was highlighted in yellow at Rmb40k Honda Accord with 16% discount Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets 10 October 2012 [email protected] 3 [email protected] FIRST LAST 10/14/12 06:36:04 AM Hong Kong Highpower Prepared for: ThomsonReuters Discounts helping sales Chinese Auto Figure 3 GAC Honda auto shipments were up 8.73% YTD in August Manufactur Brand Sales er Aug Jan-Aug Jan-Aug % Change 12 12 11 Prior YTD Month Guangqi Accord 2.0L 6,058 50,449 53,755 67.95 (6.15) Honda Accord 2.4L 2,760 22,820 40,793 (9.77) (44.06) Accord 3.5L 0 2 1 * 100 Crosstour 2.4 3,865 21,579 0 2.3 * Crosstour 3.5 6 853 1,681 0 (49.26) Fit 1.3L (two-box) 3,042 17,762 6,236 10.22 184.83 Fit 1.5L (two-box) 1,010 9,120 6,213 19.81 46.79 Honda EVERUS S1 1,571 17,507 12,387 25.28 41.33 1.3L Honda EVERUS S1 131 1541 1,133 25.96 36.01 1.5L New City 1.5L 9,826 72,387 71,546 36.49 1.18 New City 1.8L 15 732 748 (34.78) (2.14) Odyssey 1,761 15,995 17,719 0.92 (9.73) Total 30,045 230,747 212,212 23.25 8.73 Source: CAAM GAC Toyota – Camry gets 14% discount, worse than before GAC Toyota dealership also had no customers during our visit. The sales staff was not even interested to talk to us upon arrival unlike our previous visit. The 2.0L Toyota Camry had discount of 11% and the 2.5L Camry had discount of 14%. The dealer said they had about 10 or more inventory. Figure 4 Figure 5 2.5L Camry had 14% discount 2.0L Camry had 11% discount Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets Source: CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets 10 October 2012 [email protected] 4 [email protected] FIRST LAST 10/14/12 06:36:04 AM Hong Kong Highpower Prepared for: ThomsonReuters Discounts helping sales Chinese Auto Figure 6 GAC Toyota shipments were up 10.49% YTD in August Manufactur Brand Sales er Aug Jan-Aug Jan-Aug % Change 12 12 11 Prior YTD Month GAC Toyota Camry 2.0L 3,494 15,241 54,299 (11.77) (71.93) Camry 2.4L 0 0 38,527 (100) (100) Camry 2.4L Hybrid 18 117 125 * (6.4) E'Z 1.6 14 499 839 (41.67) (40.52) E'Z 1.8 2,567 12,947 3,107 9.51 316.7 E'Z 2.0 1 9 38 * (76.32) Highlander 2.7L 6,456 47,100 47,745 (1.16) (1.35) Highlander 3.5L 727 6,159 9,211 (34.21) (33.13) New Camry 2.0L 7,553 40,689 0 23.25 * New Camry 2.5 438 1144 0 * * Hybrid New Camry 2.5L 3,080 48,464 0 (18.97) * Yaris 1.3 2 24 85 (33.33) (71.76) Yaris 1.6 1,551 10,229 11,305 (14.69) (9.52) Total 25,901 182,622 165,281 0.72 10.49 Source: CAAM What is interesting to note from the table above, are the SUV sales are slowing.
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