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Bet on Past Winners 11 February 2015 the 2014 Auto Market Slowed but Strong Brands and Segments Such As

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Bet on Past Winners 11 February 2015 the 2014 Auto Market Slowed but Strong Brands and Segments Such As Sector Research Auto Hong Kong / Auto Bet on past winners 11 February 2015 The 2014 auto market slowed but strong brands and segments such as German brands and SUV products continued to outperform. The 2015 PV market is challenging given a slowing macro economy, conservative sales targets of large OEMs and increasing capacity. Highlights will still be in the SUV and luxury segment. We like DFG/GWM for their SUV exposures, also Brilliance China/Baoxin/ZTA for high exposure in luxury brands, while cautious on Japanese and domestic brand focused companies such as GAC/DCH/GEELY. Sector Performance HK$ Strong “Matthew effect” in 2014 6.50 105% Among the slowing auto market in 2014, the strong segments and brands 6.00 100% continued to get stronger. SUV and MPV sales again beat the market with 36.4% 5.50 95% and 46.7%YoY growth, respectively, while sedan sales lagged with 3% YoY growth. 5.00 90% German brands extended their leading position with high ASP and sales volume 4.50 85% per models, squeezing market share from other brands. On the other hand, the 4.00 80% combined market shares of domestic and Japanese brands further shrank by 3.50 75% 3.00 70% 2.4ppts. Top 10 OEMs group raised their share in the auto market by 1.5ppts to Jan-13 Apr-13 89.7%, and the largest 7 auto OEM groups all recorded net adds in sales volume. Price(LHS) Rel. to HSI(RHS) Harsher situation expected in 2015 Source: Bloomberg With relatively more modest stimulus policies, slower M2 growth in 2015 points to lower growth rate in auto sales. We estimate auto sales to grow by only 6.1% in 2015, and PV sales up only by 6.7%. The largest six OEMs have set a more conservative sales target in 2015 compared to the growth in 2014. However, we estimate that the total PV capacity will increase by 13% to 26.5m units, which translated into a lower utilization of 79.4%. With lower sales growth and increased capacity, operating profit growth of OEMs is expected to slow down. Past winners higher chance to success We believe there will still be three highlights in 2015: 1) SUV, especially A0 class SUV market will continue to boom, 2) Luxury brands will still lead the market, strong German brands will extend their competitive edge, 3) Luxury dealers are expected to see stabilizing margins thanks to improved OEM-dealer relationship. Stock picks We initiate coverage of GAC (2238.HK) and Geely Auto (0175.HK) with Neutral rating, due to their high exposure in Japanese brands and domestic A0/A class John Luo sedans, and rate DFG (0489.HK) with BUY due to its diversified brand portfolio and SFC CE No.: AVT518 +852 2899 8300 strong SUV cycle in 2015. We maintain our BUY rating for GWM (2333.HK) for [email protected] dominant SUV position, BUY for Brilliance China (1114.HK), Baoxin Auto (1293.HK) and ZTA (1728.HK) thanks to high exposure in German and luxury brands. We kept our Neutral rating for DCH (1828.HK) for high exposure in Japanese brands. Figure 1: Sector Valuation Summary Target Price(9 Feb 15) FYE1 FYE2 FYE1 FYE2 Price Stock BBG HK$ PE(x) PE(x) Yield(%) Yield(%) HK$ Upside(%) Rating Baoxin Auto 1293 HK 4.7 9.7 8.1 3.1 3.7 6.0 27.0 Buy Brilliance China Auto 1114 HK 13.5 10.8 8.9 1.4 1.7 18.0 33.3 Buy Dongfeng Motor 489 HK 11.3 6.2 6.1 2.4 2.5 15.0 32.3 Buy Geely Automobile 175 HK 3.3 16.7 10.3 0.7 1.1 3.2 (1.5) Neutral Great Wall Motor 2333 HK 46.1 13.5 10.4 2.1 2.9 55.0 19.4 Buy Guangzhou Auto 2238 HK 7.0 11.6 9.9 2.2 2.5 7.1 1.6 Neutral Zhengtong Auto 1728 HK 3.9 7.5 6.5 2.7 3.1 5.4 38.8 Buy DCH 1828 HK 4.7 8.9 8.0 4.5 5.0 4.7 0.4 Neutral Source: Guosen Securities (HK) See the last page of this report for important disclosures 1 行业报告 汽车 香港 / 汽车 押注旧赢家 2015 年 2 月 11 日 虽然 2014 年中国汽车市场增速有所放缓，但是强势品牌以及强势 的细分市场依然跑赢大市，最好的例子是德系品牌以及 SUV 市场。 在宏观经济放缓、大型整车集团下调增长目标以及产能继续扩张的 背景下，2015 年的乘用车市场是充满挑战的。我们认为市场的热 点依然是 SUV 以及豪华车市场。我们喜欢东风集团股份以及长城汽 车，因为他们的 SUV 产品较多，喜欢华晨中国/宝信汽车/正通汽车， 因为他们与豪华品牌相关，而对日系以及自主品牌较为集中的广汽 集团/大昌行/吉利汽车保持谨慎。 股价表现 HK$ 6.50 105% 2014 年车市：马太效应明显 6.00 100% 在 2014 年增速逐渐放缓的汽车市场中，强势的品牌和细分领域继续保持强劲 5.50 95% 增长。SUV 和 MPV 销量再次分别以 36.4%和 46.7%的增速领跑市场，而轿车市 5.00 90% 场增速仅有 3%，落后大市。德系品牌巩固了他们的领先优势，不断从其他品 4.50 85% 牌手中攫取份额。另一方面，自主品牌和日系品牌的合计市场占有率萎缩了 4.00 80% 2.4 个百分点。前十大汽车集团的市场份额提升了 1.5 个百分点至 89.7%，而 3.50 75% 最大的 7 家集团都录得了销量增长。 3.00 70% Jan-13 Apr-13 2015 年市场环境趋于严峻 在缺乏刺激政策的背景下，更慢的 M2 增长预示着 2015 年汽车销量增速将会 Price(LHS) Rel. to HSI(RHS) 放缓。我们预计 2015 年汽车销量仅增长 6.1%，其中乘用车增长 6.7%。我们 资料来源：国信证券(香港) 发现最大的六个汽车集团设立的 2015 年增长目标都较 2014 年的实际增长更 保守。在此背景下，2015 年的乘用车产能预计却会增长 13%至 2,650 万辆， 产能利用率可能会低至 79.4%。在销量放缓和产能增加的背景下，整车厂的经 营利润增速将会进一步减慢。 旧赢家更有可能成功 我们认为 2015 年的市场依然有三个亮点：1）SUV，尤其是 A0 级 SUV 市场会 持续火爆；2）豪华品牌将继续引领市场，德系品牌将进一步加强领先优势； 3）豪华车经销商将得益于更和谐的整车厂-经销商关系而录得平稳的利润率。 选股逻辑. 罗文安 我们对广汽集团（2238.HK）以及吉利汽车（0175.HK）的首次评级为中性， 证监会中央编号:AVT518 因为他们在日系品牌以及自主 A0/A 级轿车中有较高的风险暴露，对东风集团 +852 2899 8300 股份（0489.HK）首次评级为买入，因为公司具有分散的产品线以及 2015 年 [email protected] 迎来强劲的 SUV 产品周期。我们维持对于长城汽车（2333.HK）的买入评级， 因为公司在 SUV 市场有领先优势；维持华晨中国（1114.HK）、宝信汽车 （1293.HK）、正通汽车（1728.HK）的买入评级，因为他们将得益于德系以 及豪华品牌的发展。我们对日系品牌风险暴露较高的大昌行（1828.HK）保持 中性评级。 行业概览 股价(9 Feb 15) FYE1 FYE2 FYE1 FYE2 目标价 市盈率 市盈率 股票 代码 (港元) 股息率(%) 股息率(%) (港元) 上升空间(%) 评级 (x) (x) 宝信汽车集团 1293 HK 4.7 9.7 8.1 3.1 3.7 6.0 27.0 买入 华晨中国汽车 1114 HK 13.5 10.8 8.9 1.4 1.7 18.0 33.3 买入 东风集团股份 489 HK 11.3 6.2 6.1 2.4 2.5 15.0 32.3 买入 吉利汽车 175 HK 3.3 16.7 10.3 0.7 1.1 3.2 (1.5) 中性 长城汽车 2333 HK 46.1 13.5 10.4 2.1 2.9 55.0 19.4 买入 广汽集团 2238 HK 7.0 11.6 9.9 2.2 2.5 7.1 1.6 中性 正通汽车 1728 HK 3.9 7.5 6.5 2.7 3.1 5.4 38.8 买入 大昌行 1828 HK 4.7 8.9 8.0 4.5 5.0 4.7 0.4 中性 资料来源：国信证券 (香港) 2 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2 Hong Kong / Auto John Luo +852 2899 8300 [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Strong “Matthew Effect” in 2014 ................................................................................................................................................... 4 Auto sales growth slowed in 2H14 4 SUV and MPV maintained strong growth 5 German brands continue to dominate the PV market 5 Strong brands continue to take market share from weak brands 6 Large OEMs extending their leads 7 Harsher situation in 2015 .............................................................................................................................................................. 8 Slower M2 growth + no stimulus policy will like result in slower growth 8 Large OEM groups have turned more conservative 9 Further capacity expansion will put pressures on utilization rate 9 Operating profit of OEMs will decelerate further on slower auto sales growth 11 Navigating a slowing market ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 SUV still booming, A0 class SUVs should be even better 11 Luxury brands will still lead the growth 13 Recovery year for dealers? 14 Stock-picking criteria: .................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Methodology 15 Criterion 1: companies with strong SUV product lines 17 Criterion 2: high exposure to luxury/German brands 18 Criterion 3: Cautious on Japanese and domestic brands 19 Stock picking and ratings 20 Peers comparison ........................................................................................................................................................................ 21 Risk factors: ................................................................................................................................................................................. 22 Slower auto sales growth will hurt the margins of OEMs 22 Overcapacity and price war 22 More cities putting restrictions on car license 22 Appendix: .................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Representativeness of Guosen Securities (HK) auto database 23 Product lines of major auto OEM groups (2014) 24 Product lines of major Hong Kong listed OEMs 25 Company Section ......................................................................................................................................................................... 26 Dongfeng Motor (489 HK/BUY): 2015 the year of SUVs 27 Guangzhou Auto (2238 HK/NEUTRAL): Compacting for more shares 51 Geely Automobile (175 HK/NEUTRAL): Swimming in the red ocean 67 Great Wall Motor (2333 HK/BUY): Dancing SUV giant 87 Brilliance China Auto (1114 HK/BUY): Eyes on a growing pie 92 Baoxin Auto (1293 HK/BUY): Largest BMW dealer pending rerate 97 Zhengtong Auto (1728 HK/BUY): Steadier growth 102 DCH (1828 HK/BUY): Shifting away from auto dealer business 107 Guosen Securities (HK) 3 Hong Kong / Auto John Luo +852 2899 8300 [email protected] Strong “Matthew Effect” in 2014 Auto sales growth slowed in 2H14 In 2014, auto sales grew by 6.9% YoY, down from 13.9% YoY in 2013. On a monthly basis, auto sales growth was lower in 2H14. Auto sales growth slowed to 6.9% YoY in 2014 Figure 2 Year-to-date auto sales growth (2011-2014) （%） 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (5) (10) (15) (20) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: CAAM, Guosen Securities(HK) Research In Nov. 2014, sedan sales volume was down by 4.7% YoY. However, due to strong December sales, whole-year sedan sales volume was up by 3.1%. We noticed a jump in auto sales in Dec. 2014, which we believe is abnormal.
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