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KLCCP Stapled(KLCCSS Visit Note Malaysia 24 September 2019 Property | REITs KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK) Buy (Maintained) Specialty Stores Especially Promising; BUY Target Price (Return) MYR8.62 (+6%) Price: MYR(+18%)8.13 Market Cap: USD3,512m Avg Daily Turnover (MYR/USD) 11.37m/2.72m Maintain BUY with new TP of MYR8.62 from MYR8.57, 6% upside plus Analyst c.5% yield. We recently met with management and came away well-assured on the near-term outlook of the REIT. While the hotel segment leaves much Loong Kok Wen, CFA to be desired, our view on KLCCSS is still positive given its stable office +603 9280 8861 segment that seems largely unperturbed by the supply glut in the market, and [email protected] the promising outlook of its retail segment post-reconfiguration of the former- Parkson space, which should unlock value. Promising outlook for the retail segment. With Parkson closing its outlet in Suria KLCC in Mar 2019, the space it once occupied has now been divided into smaller lots, each measuring <10,000 sqf – suitable for specialty stores encompassing a diversified mix of tenants in fashion, cosmetics and food & Share Performance (%) beverage segments. Management guided that the mix will comprise 80-100 of YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m both local and exclusive, international “first-to-market” names. The Absolute 6.1 (0.2) 0.4 4.5 5.3 transformation of 80% of the total NLA – comprising the area at the ground Relative 11.9 0.8 5.7 8.9 17.3 floor, first floor and half of the second floor – is expected to complete by Dec 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) 7.41 - 8.48 2019, while the remaining 20% (remaining half of the second floor) will be completed in mid-2020. We remain upbeat on this reconfiguration, as smaller- sized tenants generally command higher rental psf. KLCCP Stapled (KLCCSS MK) Price Close Stable income contribution from office segment. Despite the ever- 8.5 threatening oversupply in the office segment in the market, we expect 8.0 minimal downside risk for KLCCP Stapled as three of five of its prime Grade- 7.5 A office buildings ie Petronas Twin Towers, Menara 3 Petronas and Menara 7.0 Dayabumi, are on a triple net lease with Petronas, and enjoying long-term 6.5 leases as well as full occupancy. Note that 40% of Menara ExxonMobil is also 6.0 occupied by one of the subsidiaries of Petronas, and hence, tenancy for this Jul-19 building is also relatively stable. Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Mar-19 Jun-19 Feb-19 Sep-18 Dec-18 Nov-18 Aug-19 May-19 Staying cautious with the hotel segment. Management has not seen a strong pick-up in average room rate (ARR) over the years for Mandarin Source: Bloomberg Oriental. KLCCSS plans to capitalise on the re-launch of its newly-refurbished rooms and further encourage growth for this segment with initiatives also in place for its F&B segment. We remain cautious on the hotel segment as business activities are likely to remain soft given sluggish market conditions, coupled with increasing competition from new 5-star hotels nearby as well as alternative accommodation options. Revising earnings forecast and TP by 1-2%. We make minor adjustments in our earnings forecast to reflect the incremental rental from the reconfigured Parkson space. Correspondingly, our DDM-based TP is increased to MYR8.62 following our earnings revision. A downside risk to the stock is the prolonged weakening of local consumer sentiment. r Forecasts and Valuation Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total turnover (MYRm) 1,367 1,406 1,420 1,456 1,488 Net property income (MYRm) 1,011 1,049 1,052 1,103 1,127 Reported net profit (MYRm) 671 698 725 766 786 Total distributable income (MYRm) 671 698 725 766 786 DPS (MYR) 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.41 0.42 DPS growth (%) 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.6 2.5 P/BV (x) 1.13 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 Dividend Yield (%) 4.4 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.1 Return on average equity (%) 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.0 Return on average assets (%) 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 Gross Gearing (%) 12.7 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) KLCCP Stapled Malaysia Visit Note 24 September 2019 Property | REITs Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Malaysia Recurring EPS (MYR) 0.37 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.45 REIT EPS (MYR) 0.40 0.40 0.42 0.44 0.45 KLCCP Stapled REIT DPS (MYR) 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.41 0.42 KLCCSS MK BVPS (MYR) 7.22 7.55 7.55 7.55 7.55 Weighted avg adjusted shares (m) 1,805.33 1,734.84 1,734.84 1,734.84 1,734.84 Valuation basis Valuation metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Dividend discount model. Recurring P/E (x) 21.9 20.2 19.4 18.4 18.0 P/E (x) Key drivers 20.4 20.2 19.4 18.4 18.0 P/B (x) Transformation of Parkson space in Suria KLCC. 1.13 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.08 Smaller-sized tenants generally mean the REIT can FCF Yield (%) 6.6 7.0 7.3 7.5 7.6 command a higher rental psf. Dividend yield (%) 4.4 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.1 EV/EBITDA (x) Key risks 27.3 26.8 26.1 24.8 24.1 EV/EBIT (x) Downside risks include prolonged weak domestic 27.6 27.8 27.1 25.7 25.0 consumer sentiment. Income statement (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Company Profile Total turnover 1,367 1,406 1,420 1,456 1,488 KLCC Stapled Group (KLCCSS) consists of KLCC Gross profit 1,147 1,165 1,177 1,218 1,245 Property Holdings (KLCCP) and KLCC REIT. EBITDA 1,011 1,049 1,052 1,103 1,127 KLCCP’s primary focus is on property development Depreciation and amortisation and investment, while KLCC REIT is an Islamic REIT (11) (38) (38) (38) (38) that owns the iconic Petronas Twin Towers, among Operating profit 1,000 1,011 1,013 1,065 1,088 others. Net interest (80) (80) (80) (84) (84) Income from associates & JVs - - - - - Exceptional income - net 182 20 - - - Pre-tax profit 1,115 964 947 996 1,019 Taxation (102) (125) (85) (90) (92) Minority interests (342) (141) (136) (140) (142) Recurring net profit(adj) 671 698 725 766 786 Cash flow (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Change in working capital 5 8 3 7 6 Cash flow from operations 1,110 965 983 1,035 1,056 Capex - (54) (56) (59) (62) Cash flow from investing activities (219) (133) (56) (59) (62) Dividends paid (653) (642) (667) (704) (722) Cash flow from financing activities (1,155) (291) (747) (778) (795) Cash at beginning of period 1,015 750 736 1,377 1,512 Net change in cash (265) 540 180 198 199 Ending balance cash 750 736 1,377 1,512 1,649 Balance sheet (MYRm) Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Total cash and equivalents 750 736 1,377 1,512 1,649 Tangible fixed assets 667 674 710 731 755 Intangible assets - - - - - Total investments 15,924 15,968 15,968 15,968 15,968 Total other assets 451.15 1,020.75 482.61 484.55 484.70 Total assets 17,793 18,398 18,537 18,695 18,856 Short-term debt 25 428 428 428 428 Total long-term debt 2,226 2,226 2,226 2,226 2,226 Other liabilities 520 918 921 939 958 Total liabilities 2,746 3,144 3,147 3,165 3,184 Shareholders' equity 13,028 13,095 13,095 13,095 13,095 Minority interests 2,018 2,159 2,295 2,435 2,577 Total equity 15,047 15,254 15,391 15,530 15,672 Net debt 1,501 1,917 1,276 1,141 1,005 Total liabilities & equity 17,793 18,398 18,537 18,695 18,856 Key metrics Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19F Dec-20F Dec-21F Revenue growth (%) 0.9 1.6 1.0 3.5 2.2 Recurrent EPS growth (%) (0.5) 8.2 3.9 5.6 2.5 Gross margin (%) 83.9 82.9 82.9 83.7 83.7 Operating EBITDA margin (%) 74.0 74.6 74.1 75.8 75.7 Net profit margin (%) 49.1 49.7 51.1 52.6 52.8 Dividend payout ratio (%) 90.6 90.6 91.9 91.9 91.9 Capex/sales (%) - 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 Interest cover (x) 12.6 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.4 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) KLCCP Stapled Malaysia Visit Note 24 September 2019 Property | REITs Mixed Bag Of Potential In All Segments Retail segment to boost earnings growth Parkson closed its outlet in Suria KLCC at end-March. Previously, it occupied almost 125,000 sqf of space, this is c.11% of Suria’s NLA, but it contributed only 3% of total gross income.
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