Third Quarter │2012 TUMBARUMBA LGA Property Watch® TUMBARUMBA REGION OVERVIEW The following Property Watch report is the result of an investigation into the historic and current market conditions of the Tumbarumba Local Government Area (LGA). Located at the foothills of the Snowy Mountains, the Tumbarumba Shire Council has its centre in the town of Tumbarumba, surrounded by the villages of Rosewood, Tooma, Khancoban and Jingellic. The region’s economy, expended in the previous century by the discovery of gold, now relies on agriculture and tourism, with the Tumbarumba-based sawmill employing five per cent of the The Murray River near Tumbarumba Shire’s population. The latest Census data pointed to a slow decline in population over the past ten years, resulting in approximately 3,400 residing in the LGA. However, a high number of unoccupied dwellings on Census night challenge the MARKET INDICATORS accuracy of the figures, with many of the local retirees choosing to spend the winter period in warmer climates. Change from Last Year Half Year A rise in house transactions over the past two years acts as a positive reminder HOUSE SALES for the strength of the local market. With low unemployment and sensible borrowing by locals, sales volumes in the six months to May 2012 were on par HOUSE MEDIAN with those of the November 2009 period, when government handouts enticed first HOUSE RENTS home buyers to enter the market. In the past ten years demand for four bedroom houses increased amid a decline in demand for three bedroom accommodation, LAND SALES with the latter representing 50 per cent of family households in 2011 compared to 56 per cent a decade ago. LAND MEDIAN The demand for vacant land failed to materialise in the May 2012 period, amid The indicators depicted above are based on the year ending May 2012. the rising house market. The seven vacant lots transactions in the May half year period represented a significant decline from an average of 14 transactions per six months recorded in the past five years. This is likely to change with the second stage of a Council land release scheduled for later on in 2012. KEY HIGHLIGHTS TUMBARUMBA LGA HOUSE & VACANT LAND SALES CYCLE . The median house price closed the May period at $172,500, House Sales Vacant Land Sales House Median representing a 12 month growth 90 $250,000 of 11.3 per cent and an increase of 17.4 per cent from the lows of 80 14 $200,000 the Global Financial Crisis. 70 $172,500 . Subdued vacant land activity, 60 31 $150,000 linked to a lack of supply is likely 50 32 17 to improve with the late 2012 14 24 25 17 40 13 12 11 land release by the Council. 8 5 8 $100,000 Number of salesof Number 15 Median saleprice Median 11 12 30 12 18 14 7 13 . The median rent price for a 67 45 20 38 37 $50,000 32 33 31 32 31 32 32 31 32 27 29 house in Tumbarumba closed the 26 24 26 24 10 21 22 May period at $210 per week, 18 representing a 20% increase 0 $0 from the same period in 2011. 2002 MAY 2002 MAY 2003 MAY 2004 2002 NOV 2002 NOV 2003 NOV 2004 MAY 2005 NOV 2005 MAY 2006 NOV 2006 MAY 2007 NOV 2007 MAY 2008 NOV 2008 MAY 2009 NOV 2009 MAY 2010 NOV 2010 MAY 2011 NOV 2011 MAY 2012 NOV 2001 Half year period Graph prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS www.prdresearch.com.au Your home of property knowledge Your home of property knowledge www.prdresearch.com.au The median house price closed the May period at $172,500, representing a 12 HOUSE PRICE POINTS month growth of 11.3 per cent and an increase of 17.4 per cent from the lows Annual change in transaction numbers Share of transactions recorded during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Observing the House Price 40% Points chart over the May 2012 half year period, it is evident that a dominant concentration of buyers existed in the $150,000 to $199,999 price point. 30% However, the rise in median price is the result of acreage properties in 20% 14% Tumbarumba and Mannus transacting in the $400,000 plus price point. Recent 10% enquires came from first home buyers who wanted to secure the $7,000 First 8% 3% 3% Home Owner Grant prior to its disappearance at the end of September, and from 0% -1% ‘tree change’ retirees moving into the area in search for a cooler climate. -6% -5% -10% Over the past two years lot sales under $100,000 dominated the local market, -16% -20% accounting for more than 50 per cent of transactions. Tumbarumba land market’s low entry point offers opportunities for young couples and downsizers who wish to reinvest real estate gains made in more expensive parts of the state. The Vacant Land Size graph highlights the variance in lot sizes over the past Price point three years. It shows a decline in acreage properties and an incline in smaller Chart prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS lifestyle properties with a land area of between one and twenty hectares. Approximately one quarter of all vacant land sales in 2010 and 2012 were residential lots with an area of 1,000 square metres (sq m) or less. The increase in the share of smaller lots in 2011 was achieved by sales of Greenfield lots near Tumbarumba land the eastern entrance to the town. market’s low entry point TUMBARUMBA VACANT LAND SIZES offers opportunities for 100% young couples and 90% 19% 30% Larger than 20 hectares downsizers who wish to 80% 36% 70% reinvest real estate gains 31% 1 to 20 hectares 60% made in more expensive 12% 23% 50% Share of transactionsShareof parts of the state. 40% 13% 1,000 to one hectare 28% 25% 30% 20% 33% 1,000 sq m or less 25% VACANT LAND PRICE POINTS 10% 24% 12 MONTHS TO MAY 2012 0% May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 At least $350,000 12 month period 5% $150,000 to $199,999 Less than $50,000 Graph prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS 10% 33% The variance in lot sizes stemmed from the lack of master-planned land releases $100,000 to over the past five years. This is about to change with the Council’s release of 22 $149,999 14% lots off Albury Street, increasing the supply of residential lots between 580 and 1,400 sq m. Most rental properties in the LGA are located in a two kilometre radius from the Tumbarumba town centre. The rental market is largely made of young families who move into town with their job and choose to rent in the short term until they $50,000 to $99,999 38% can obtain finance and save for a sufficient deposit. The median rent for a house in Tumbarumba closed the May half year at $210 per week, representing a 20% Chart prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS increase from the same period in 2011. A low number of properties for rent confirmed that vacancies were tightening, while short letting periods proved attractive to investors who can expect a gross rental yield between six and seven per cent. Research Analyst │Oded Reuveni-Etzioni P (02) 9257 0254 E [email protected] PRDnationwide Tumbarumba │ Principal Julie Giddings │ P (02) 6948 2182 E [email protected] This report was prepared by PRDnationwide Research. Source: PDS, ABS, Tumbarumba Shire Council. PRDnationwide does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRDnationwide will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRDnationwide Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © 2012 .