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FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN Is Issued Monthly Under the Direction of the Staff Publications Committee

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FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN Is Issued Monthly Under the Direction of the Staff Publications Committee VOLUME 74 • NUMBER 5 • MAY 1988 FEDERAL RESERVE •Vv' BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM, WASHINGTON, D.C. PUBLICATIONS COMMITTEE Joseph R. Coyne, Chairman • Michael Bradfield • S. David Frost • Griffith L. Garwood • Donald L. Kohn • Michael J. Prell • Edwin M. Truman ••-r. ' ... ' 1- lit The FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN is issued monthly under the direction of the staff publications committee. This committee is responsible for opinions expressed except in official statements and signed articles. It is assisted by the Economic Editing Section headed by Mendelle T. Berenson, the Graphic Communications Section under the direction of Peter G. Thomas, and Publications Services supervised by Linda C. Kyles. Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Table of Contents 279 U.S. INTERNATIONAL framework put forward by Secretary of the TRANSACTIONS IN 1987 Treasury Baker in Seoul, before the Sub- committees on International Development For 1987 as a whole, the U.S. external deficit Institutions and Finance and on Interna- widened further, although exports advanced tional Finance, Trade and Monetary Policy rapidly and the trade deficit showed signs of of the House Committee on Banking, Fi- having leveled off during the year. nance and Urban Affairs, March 9, 1988. 289 STAFF STUDIES 301 Chairman Greenspan discusses the current In "International Banking Trends for U.S. economic situation and the outlook for 1988 Banks and Banking Markets," the author including, In particular, the process of ex- discusses the ways in which banks conduct ternal-adjustment that is aow under way their international banking activities, the and the challenge that it poses to our econ- nature and size of their business, and the omy, before the Joint Economic Committee extent to which they have penetrated key of the CONGRESSMAN 15, 1988. markets. The study provides much data not 304 William Taylor, Staff Director of the easily obtained from other sources. Board's Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, discusses the Real Estate 291 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Reform Act of 1987, an act that would Industrial production increased an esti- establish a federal interagency council mated 0.2 percent in February. charged with the mission of promoting throughout the United States real estate appraisals formulated by qualified apprais- 293 STATEMENTS TO CONGRESS ers in accordance with high industry stan- Alan Greenspan, Chairman, Board of Gov- dards, before the Subcommittee on Com- ernors, discusses further actions in support merce, Consumer and Monetary Affairs of of a long-term policy of reducing budget the House Committee on Government Op- deficits and the associated claims on the erations, March 15, 1988. nation's supply of saving and says that the benefit from taking credible actions to curb 307 Martha R. Seger, Member, Board of Gov- federal outlays and related demands will be ernors, discusses the Community Reinvest- enormous, before the Senate Committee on ment Act and the role that the Federal the Budget, March 2, 1988. (Chairman Reserve has played in administering it, be- Greenspan presented identical testimony fore the Senate Committee on Banking, before the House Budget Committee on Housing, and Urban Affairs, March 23, March 3, 1988.) 1988. 297 Manuel H. Johnson, Vice Chairman, Board 312 Chairman Greenspan reviews initiatives to of Governors, assesses the international strengthen financial markets in response to debt situation in light of recent develop- the events of last October and says that it is ments and says that he sees no alternative essential to have as clear an understanding to the case-by-case approach of dealing as possible of what happened last October with international debt problems in the and why before taking action, before the Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, gates. The reserve conditions contemplated and Urban Affairs, March 31, 1988. by the Committee were expected to be con- sistent with growth in both M2 and M3 over 317 ANNOUNCEMENTS the period from November through March at Issuance of staff commentaries on Regula- annual rates of about 6 to 7 percent. The tions B, E, and Z. Committee decided not to indicate any expec- tation regarding the growth of Ml over the Proposal regarding risk-based capital guide- months ahead. The members agreed that the lines for U.S. banking organizations. intermeeting range for the federal funds rate should be left unchanged at 4 to 8 percent. Admission of one state bank to membership in the Federal Reserve System. 327 LEGAL DEVELOPMENTS 318 RECORD OF POLICY ACTIONS OF THE Various bank holding company, bank ser- FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE vice corporation, and bank merger orders; At its meeting on February 9-10, 1988, the and pending cases. Committee established ranges of 4 to 8 percent for growth in both M2 and M3 for 345 DIRECTORS OF FEDERAL RESERVE the year. No range was set for Ml, while BANKS AND BRANCHES the monitoring range for growth in total List of directors by Federal Reserve Dis- domestic nonfinancial debt was set at 7 to trict. 11 percent for the year. In carrying out policy the Committee would continue to Ai FINANCIAL AND BUSINESS STATISTICS judge the behavior of the monetary aggre- gates against the background of develop- A3 Domestic Financial Statistics ments in the economy and financial mar- A44 Domestic Nonfinancial Statistics kets, including attention to the sources and A53 International Statistics extent of price pressures in the economy, the performance of the dollar in foreign A69 GUIDE TO TABULAR PRESENTATION, exchange markets, and other indicators of STATISTICAL RELEASES, AND SPECIAL the impact of monetary policy. TABLES With regard to the implementation of pol- icy for the period immediately ahead, the A76 BOARD OF GOVERNORS AND STAFF Committee adopted a directive that called for maintaining the slightly easier degree of re- A78 FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE serve pressure that had been sought recently. AND STAFF; ADVISORY COUNCILS It was understood that some flexibility might continue to be needed in the conduct of open A80 FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD market operations. Taking account of condi- PUBLICATIONS tions in financial markets, somewhat less or somewhat more reserve restraint would be A83 INDEX TO STATISTICAL TABLES acceptable, depending on the strength of the business expansion, indications of inflation, A85 FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS, BRANCHES, the performance of the dollar in foreign ex- AND OFFICES change markets, with consideration also given to the behavior of the monetary aggre- A86 MAP OF FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis U.S. International Transactions in 1987 William R. Melick, of the Board's Division of nificant further increase in net payments on port- International Finance, prepared this article. folio investment income and in U.S. net foreign indebtedness. In 1987, the U.S. external deficit increased for the sixth year in a row. Both the merchandise - -V trade and the current account balances, mea- INFLUENCES ON U.S. INTERNATIONAL sures of the deficit, deteriorated. Even though TRANSACTIONS the growth of non-oil imports slowed, because it started from a larger base, it offset the rapid In recent years, U.S. international transactions growth of exports. have responded both to relative rates of growth Over the course of 1987, however, the down- in income at home and abroad and to changes in ward trend in the trade balance leveled off; and in U.S. international price competitiveness. As in- the fourth quarter, the current account deficit come growth differentials have narrowed, the narrowed (chart 1). These developments in the importance of that factor has diminished. For nominal balances, bolstered by the sustained most of 1982-85, the economy of the United reduction in the real external deficit, laid the States grew much more rapidly than the econo- foundation for an improvement in the current mies of the rest of the world combined, a situa- account deficit in 1988. tion that helped widen the U.S. external deficit Extending developments that began in 1986, significantly. Since HfcBSj'h6WeVer, U.S. growth net capital inflows, which were the counterpart rates have been close to average foreign growth to the 1987 current account deficit, included rates. In 1987, the economies of Canada, Japan, heavier purchases of U.S. assets by official mon- and the United Kingdom grew more rapidly than etary authorities. Foreign acquisitions of U.S. that of the United States; but those of Germany, plant and equipment and other direct invest- l^l^^ ltaly grew -more slowly. In lite past ments increased strongly, and by slightly more nomic activity fir the less-developed than U.S. direct investments abroad. The mag- continued to expand, as the rapid nitude of the current account deficit and the the newly industrialized countries in associated net capital inflows constituted a sig- nated the slow growth in Latin Amer- 2). 1. U.S. trade and current account balances, 1980-871 SAs one measure of international price compet- Billions of dollars itiveness, the real exchange value of the dollar can help explain much of the recent behavior of the U.S. external accounts. From its peak in early 1985 through 1986, the dollar depreciated sharply in real terms (adjusted with consumer price indexes) against the currencies of most foreign industrial countries, a small amount against the Canadian dollar, and not at all against the currencies of developing countries (chart 3). As the dollar declined further during 1987, the 1981 1983 1985 1987 disparity of changes across currencies dimin- ished considerably: for the first time since the SOURCE. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. International Transactions Accounts. dollar peaked against the currencies of the other Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St.
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