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States in the Current World Order (Irgp) Вестник Челябинского государственного университета. 2018. № 7 (417). Экономические науки. Вып. 61. С. 160—167. УДК 339.9 ББК 65.5 От редакции. Перед вами — не вполне стандартная для нашего журнала статья, а краткое изложение революционной идеи наших коллег — новой методологической парадигмы в оцен- ке и прогнозировании развития мировой экономики. Данный материал ранее не публиковался, и этой публикацией мы хотим привлечь внимание к проделанной коллегами гигантской работе, не только к разработке междисциплинарного подхода, но и к его продвижению на множестве дискуссионных площадок в разных частях света — в Мексике, Китае, Европе и России. Наде- емся, представленная статья найдет живой отклик у читателей и в дальнейшем мы продолжим дискуссию на эту тему. A QUANTIFIED COMPOSITE INDEX OF RELATIVE GEOSTRATEGIC POWER OF NATION — STATES IN THE CURRENT WORLD ORDER (IRGP)... Heinz Dieterich , Raimundo Franco , Rodrigo Ortiz , Juan Carlos Olguin 1 Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Mexico City, Mexico 2 Institute for Cybernetics, Mathematics and Physics (ret.), Habana, Cuba 3 Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Mexico 4 Center for Transition Sciences, Mexico — Beijin This new comprehensive interdisciplinary model for calculating the Relative Geopolitical Power of Nation States (IRGP) was developed by the Center for Transition Sciences (CTS), founded by the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM) in Mexico City. It differs from other existing models in several ways, among others: 1. An intensive two-year research effort indicated that a scientifically satisfying level of measuring the parameters involved can be achieved with seven power vectors. 2. The model permits a profound long term comprehension of Nation States’ evolutions, because it is based on the General Law of Evolution of Modernity. That is a transcendental scientific innovation, because all other models basically provide momentaneous X-Rate-like diagnostics of a Nation States´ power situation. 3. Another innovation our team devised is the combination of the synergies of Newton’s, Darwin’s, Marx-Engels’ and Lorenz’ paradigms, which permits a profound political understanding of the evolution of bourgeois class societies in modern times and therefore, the strategic conceptual tools to overcome current capitalist societies based on chrematistic market economic systems. 4. The internal structure of the current Attractor of Modernity is determined through nine sub- indexes. 5. Finally, the statistical use of publicly available empirical data within the framework of the geometry of basins of attraction, centroids and Mandami fuzzy logic, enabled the CTS-Team to graphically represent the results of their research. Keywords: Geopolitical Power, Nation States, Law of Evolution of Modernity, Center for Transition Sciences (CTS). 1. Research Findings economic and cultural power. Geopolitical or Relative 1. The world system is a global Darwinian National Power is the sum of all national capabilities environment, where the human species — organized and attributes that determine its influence in the in Nation-States— competes for scarce resources. international system. Relative national power is the The status hierarchies, the “survival of the fittest” medium that regulates the metabolism with the global and the structure and dynamics of this macrosystem environment. Both, cooperation and conflict strategies are determined by power.1 are based on the combined use of all power forms, 2. Power is the capacity to impose one’s will on including nuclear power. The supreme power attribute other entities, even against the will of these entities. of Nation States are nuclear world destruction and Social power exists in four forms: as political, military, force projection capabilities. Only the United States and Russia possess this ultimate attribute of power. *© Heinz Dieterich A Quantified Composite Index of Relative Geostrategic Power of Nation — States in the Current World Order (IRGP)... 161 3. Since its genesis in the English and French regional silk road megaprojects alone, can’t achieve. Revolutions, 300 years ago, the evolution of modern The Western narrative of democracy and free markets civilization has followed the operational logic of is global. A powerful antidote of the type mentioned a global Complex Dynamic Reproduction and would serve as a cultural defensive Great Wall in Survival System (CDRS) of homo sapiens, driven by: the world system, for China. China is the only State a) the historical projects of national and transnational Actor, that has the power and the socialist character power elites, in interaction with the masses and of socio-economic organization, that can create the nature; and b) a system logic, that acts similar to needed new global narrative. a system of deterministic chaos. 8. Since the establishment of the world system 4. The Attractor, that determines the General 500 years ago, it has been dominated by the West. Law of Evolution and the patterns of development Our calculation and projection of global power of Nations since the dawn of modern civilization metrics show, that it will be impossible for any single (1688/1789), is the paradigm of bourgeois society; Eurasian or Asian power —China, Russia or India— particularly the bourgeois societies of Central — to break the Western domination of this global and North-Europe and the USA. Bourgeois society, system. In other words, it will be impossible for any as any other type of civilization, presents life — of these countries to obtain singlehandedly strategic projecthorizons/clusters, which seem desirable and autonomy and self-determination vis-a-vis the West possible for the citizens and the majority of mankind. in the 21st century. These life-projects orient and define the political and 9. The strategic notion that China can obtain and social praxis of citizens. They are, therefore, the real maintain strategic autonomy against the US in the attractor force that shapes modern history, together future, results from a serious methodological error with the imperatives of the profit rate. in the understanding of the dynamics of the world 5. The internal structure of the Attractor of system. Our calculations show that in 2025, both Modernity — the civilizatory model that world China and the US will hold an about equal share of majorities strive for — can be determined and global power, that is, of 28 %; while Russia and India empirically measured through parameters like the will hold about 9 % and 7 % and Japan about 5 %. GDP per capita; the Gini Index (coefficient); the However, inferring from the 28 % power ratios, as availability and quality of Public Services (public many analysts do, that China will be able to perform health, transportation, education, security, etc.); the with strategic autonomy as an independent equal material quality of life; the existence of employment pole in a pentagon-structured world order in the 21st opportunities; affordable housing; effective political Century, is almost certainly, a fallacy. rights (democracy); civil rights (f.i. freedom of 10. Since 1917, no emerging nation in the world opinion, religion etc.) and ecological qualities, among order competing for world power has ever confronted others. Applying these metrics of our attractor model the US as a single nation; but rather as the leader of to modern civilization, Denmark and Sweden appear the power bloc known “the West”. The double defeat as the Centroide of the world hierarchy of quality of of Germany in World War I and II; of Japan in World life. War II; of the Soviet Union in the Cold War and the 6. The attractor’s global capacity to determine the current aggression of NATO against Russia, clearly configuration of world civilization, was only broken illustrates that fact. Therefore, China’s 2025’s global once: when Marx, Engels, Lenin and Mao Zedong power ratio of 28 % can’t be compared to the 28 % designed and established a 2nd and alternative ratio of the USA, but must be compared to the share Attractor: the Socialism of the 20th Century. If of about 60 % of Western world power, in 2025. humanity wants to create an alternative, non-capitalist 11. Obtaining and preserving strategic autonomy world order, it must develop a new, a Third Historical for China in the first half of the 21st Century requires, Attractor: the Socialism of the 21st Century. therefore, at least, a strategic alliance with Russia. 7. China, among all nations, is uniquely prepared This would be the minimum power level necessary to develop the new World Narrative of 21st Century (37 %) to maintain strategic autonomy with the Socialism and fill the ideological and spiritual global West. The optimum world power share for the three void, that the collaps of 20th Century Socialism emerging powers could be obtained, if China, Russia and the anti-spirituality of Western capitalism have and India managed to negotiate a strategic alliance. produced. It would give China a global cultural If they can build that alliance, than they will dispose momentum that the national Chinese dream and the of a world power base of about 44 % of the total, 162 Heinz Dieterich, Raimundo Franco, Rodrigo Ortiz, Juan Carlos Olguin in 2025. Under this premise, strategic autonomy Development and Dominance Software (SDDS) of for each of them would be guaranteed, as well as the State Actors; that is the capacity of the leading an effective structural multipolar world system. or dominant classes to optimize the use of all power Without such an alliance the West will continue attributes available for the achievement of strategic to dominate global markets and global power and national aims. In other words, it is a Qualitative a structural multipolar world will not be more than Variable that refers to the Leadership Quality in a formal notion. In essence, the West with its basic World Dominance/Software or the World Governance institutions of chrematistic market economies and Capability (WGC) of a national elite or vanguard or plutocratic formal democracies, will continue being State. The exit or failure criterion of that variable the attractor of global civilization. is the capability of a Nation-State to successfully 12.
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