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AB InBev’s Global Smart Drinking Goals 2015-2025 MEET THE 28 FEaTURES The doers and dreamers who are shaping, Tracking the man Turkey says was the shaking and stirring Europe. Starting with No. 1 on Page 10 mastermind of 2016’s attempted coup. Page 20

Italy has turned Euroskeptic. Now its DATa POInTS ‘crisis generation’ prepares to vote. Page 38 EUSA: Photographing American How many of us go to the gym? Page 9 visions of Europe — and vice-versa. Page 62

How much time do we spend watching TV? Page 37 Where are they now? Checking in with How much time do we spend eating? Page 61 POLITICO 28 alumni from prior years. Page 93

Comparing European countries’ appetites — for eating, drinking, smoking and caffeinating.Page 94

ON THE COVER: ILLUSTRATION BY PETER STRAIN FOR POLITICO “28” LOGO BY POST TYPOGRAPHY ILLUSTRATED PORTRAITS: PORTRAITS OF ALL 28 HONOREES DRAWN BY JAYA NICELY FOR POLITICO

4 POLITICO 28

LETTER FROM THE EDITORS

It’s impossible to know what the coming year holds for the European Union. But one thing is certain: The bloc’s leaders will spend much of the next 12 months wrestling with its future.

That’s why Christian Lindner tops our list in 2016) or the reaction to it (London (No. 3); Laura Boldrini, president of Italy’s of the 28 people who will shape Europe in Mayor Sadiq Khan in 2017). It’s a change lower house of parliament and a crusader 2018. The pugnacious liberal leader occu- that reflects a feeling in Europe that, while against misogynistic online abuse (No. pies a key place in Germany’s politics: at populism may not have receded, it has 5); and the European Parliament’s Brexit the head of a conservative, Euro-cautious likely crested — at least for now — leaving rapporteur Guy Verhofstadt (No. 10). segment of the electorate. By pulling the the Continent’s leaders free to address the Of course, politicians aren’t alone in plug on coalition talks in November, Lind- underlying causes of the phenomenon. driving the European debate. Many a pol ner cast his country into political turmoil Politics is back in Europe, which is will suffer shivers of fear if they fall into and ensured his place at the center of the why eight out of the top 10 people on our the crosshairs of Austrian television host ensuing debate. list are practitioners of, with apologies to Armin Wolf (No. 11); Swiss populist-bust- In a year in which the Franco-German Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz, “war er Flavia Kleiner (No. 17); or Slovenian motor is likely to drive the discussion on by other means.” They include: the brain investigative journalist Anuška Delić (No. Europe’s direction, that puts him in a behind Brexit, U.K. Environment Secretary 6). And, from the world of culture, René position to act as the brake. More than any Michael Gove (No. 2); French Labor Minis- Redzepi, the Danish chef and owner of other politician, it’s Lindner — whether in ter and Macron’s iron fist Muriel Pénicaud the illustrious Noma restaurant (No. 26), is or out of government — who will define just sure to leave his mark. As is Mirga Tyla, the how far things can go. Lithuanian conductor of the U.K.’s City of This is the third installment of our guide Birmingham Symphony Orchestra (No. 27). to the people to watch in the year ahead: 18 In our feature well, Naomi O’Leary men and 10 women from 28 different coun- looks ahead to the election in Italy next tries — politicians, business leaders, artists, POLITICO SPRL year, profiling the country’s “crisis gener- writers — you can expect to find in the thick A JOINT VENTURE BETWEEN ation” to ask how one of the Continent’s of the action in the coming months. POLITICO AND AXEL SPRINGER most Europhilic countries became one of As in previous years, we cast a wide net its most disaffected. Zia Weise searches for EXECUTIVE across the Continent, soliciting suggestions Turkey’s “runaway imam” — the man the from readers and members of previous edi- government believes holds the evidence John F. Harris tions of our list. Then, in several rounds of EDITOR IN CHIEF proving who was behind the 2016 attempt- debate, we hashed out a ranking in order ed coup. And photographer Naomi Harris Matthew Kaminski of impact. Our goal: to find those who are EXECUTIVE EDITOR visits American-themed attractions in truly — and sometimes unexpectedly — Europe and Europe-themed attractions in shaping their countries or the EU. Simply Sheherazade Semsar-de Boisséson the U.S., discovering that what was meant MANAGING DIRECTOR holding a powerful office (sorry, fans of to honor the “other” has in nearly every French President Emmanuel Macron) isn’t case turned into caricature. enough to automatically qualify. MAGAZINE We hope you’ll enjoy reading and look Lindner’s first-place finish follows two forward to hearing what you think of this years in which the top of our list was ENTERPRISE EDITOR STEPHAN FARIS year’s POLITICO 28. CREATIVE DIRECTOR TIM BALL defined by the growing wave of populism COPY EDITOR ESTHER KING STEPHAN FARIS (Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán COPY EDITOR SANYA KHETANI-SHAH AND MATTHEW KAMINSKI

6 PHOTOGRAPH OF BANKSY MURAL BY DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS FOR AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES B:240 mm T:230 mm S:225 mm B:287 mm S:272 mm T:277 mm

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IMAGES: 725489-1_Capture_Box_012_01vF_V2_CMYK_HR.tif CMYK 859 ppi exmo_elh_tm_4c.eps exmo_four-brand_endo_non_us_tm_h_cmyk_red_80k.eps Headline: 28.4/21.6pt (90K) Body: 10.4pt (80K) SCHÖNER OHNE HEPATITIS C. Auch Hepatitis C kann bei bestimmten Sexualpraktiken übertragen werden. Schützen Sie sich z. B. mit Kondomen. INFC-1200980-0003 11/16 Seit 25 Jahren machen wir uns gegen Hepatitis C stark. Bis 2025 wollen wir die Zahl der Neuinfektionen um 50 Prozent senken, indem wir über die Ansteckungswege informieren. Für weitere Informationen kontaktieren Sie bitte [email protected] MEET THE 28

Christian 1 Lindner

Michael 2 Gove

Muriel 3 Pénicaud

Mark 4 Rutte

Laura 5 Boldrini

Anuška InSIDE 6 Delić Zia Weise searches for Turkey’s ‘runaway imam’ Jyrki — the man the government believes holds the evidence 7 Katainen proving who was behind the 2016 attempted coup. Page 20

Galina 8 Timchenko DaTa POInT: LIFE In EUROPE

Health club memberships per 1,000 people (in 2014)

Denmark 148.9

Spain 142.8

Portugal 61.1

Czech Republic 14.7

Slovakia 6.7

Source: IHRSA Global Report, UN

POLITICO 28 9

GERMANY CHRISTIan LInDnER

THE RADICAL

onfidence has never been an issue for Christian Lindner. Even as an 18-year-old high school senior, the C future leader of Germany’s Free Democrats radiated bravado — dis- missing problems as little more than thorny opportunities. “There are those who wait for change and those who take matters into their own hands,” Lindner, who ran a small PR firm in between classes, told a to study where the party went wrong in its television interviewer back in 1997. last coalition with the longtime Chancellor. Twenty years later, Lindner, now 38, is His conclusion: The liberals put power clearly not afraid to take the initiative. In before principle, allowing Merkel to back November, he brought Germany’s three-way It’s better them against a wall on core issues like tax coalition talks to a crashing end, putting the reform. It’s a mistake he won’t make again. country on the path to new elections or a not to govern, Lindner’s decision to walk away allows minority government headed by wounded than to him to claim to have done the opposite. If German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “ Merkel is put in charge of a minority gov- “It’s better not to govern, than to govern govern badly.” ernment (or in the unlikely event of another badly,” Linder said, in a carefully calibrated grand coalition between the Chancellor’s soundbite that encapsulates the philosophy Christian Democrats and the Social Dem- with which he has resurrected his Free ocrats), the liberal leader’s one-man band Democrats (FDP) from the ashes, transform- and its conservative, free-market message ing the party into the most dynamic force will be one of the loudest voices in opposi- in Germany’s moribund political landscape. tion, stockpiling every government misstep After being voted out of parliament in 2013 as electoral ammunition for the next race. for the first time since World War II, the Should Germans instead return to the FDP roared back in September, grabbing polls, Lindner will have a chance to build nearly 11 percent of the vote. on his electoral success, pursuing a strategy However German politics unfolds, Lindner is certain to find himself at its center. During the FDP’s four years in the Lindner is in a unique position wilderness, Lindner has had ample time to determine the future of the EU.

PHOTOGRAPH BY HANS CHRISTIAN PLAMBECK FOR LAIF 11 similar to Austria’s Sebastian Kurz who is on driver, Lindner is the passenger with his track to become Chancellor after tacking his hand on the emergency brake. Whatever party hard to the right to engage the coun- form efforts to retool the EU and eurozone try’s populists on their own ground. Berlin’s take in the coming years, his fingerprints chancellery is almost certain to remain out Lindner was will be all over the final product. of Lindner’s reach, but he’d probably settle The biggest question about Lindner is for kingmaker, restoring the FDP’s status as among the how he will use his newfound influence. an indispensable partner. first to sense Whether on refugees or Greece, the pugna- The tactic could well backfire. Many “ cious liberal plotted his own course, often German elites were counting on the three- a shift in the cushioning hardline positions with a more way coalition. Voters might punish the FDP conciliatory message. for bringing the talks to an end. public’s mood He has called for “all” war refugees to Lindner is gambling they’ll take his side be sent back home once it was safe, for ex- instead. If he’s right, his place at the pivot on the refugee ample, while adding that anyone who had point of German politics could put him in a acquired the necessary professional qual- position to determine — arguably as much crisis in the fall ifications should be encouraged to apply as any other politician — the course of the for a normal work visa. Europe shouldn’t European Union. of 2015, and grant Greece debt relief, Lindner has ar- Lindner’s rapid rise has unnerved cap- quickly seized gued. It should kick the country out of the itals across Europe, from Paris to Athens. eurozone. But Athens should be allowed According to Le Monde, Macron told a con- the moment. to remain in the EU and be given generous fidante before the German election that if subsidies to rebuild the economy. the FDP gets into government, “I’m dead.” Critics say Lindner’s iron-fist-in-a-velvet- He might be right. In an interview with glove brand of liberalism is little more than POLITICO before the election, Lindner repackaged populism, ultimately unwork- compared the French president’s propos- able and corrosive to Germany’s political als for pooling eurozone debt to “a Soviet culture. His political adversaries on the left Union-style system, in which at some point the systematic losers will turn against the European Union and the euro.” “Frau Merkel has made promises If Macron is the engine propelling the she can’t keep,” says Lindner of refugees, European train forward and Merkel is the pictured opposite in a container park.

12 PHOTOGRAPHS BY HANS CHRISTIAN PLAMBECK FOR LAIF (THIS PAGE) AND SEAN GALLUP FOR GETTY IMAGES (OPPOSITE)

cruise around in his vintage Porsche. Merkel’s personal views notwith- standing, even she can’t help but respect Lindner’s political accomplishments. He joined the FDP as a teenager and won a seat in the regional parliament in his home state of North Rhine Westphalia at just 21. His youth in a party dominated by old men earned him the nickname “Bambi.” In the decade that followed, he became a central figure in the FDP’s top ranks — while keeping a safe distance from the missteps that led to the FDP’s collapse. As Merkel’s junior coalition partner from 2009 to 2013, the party had tried to be all things to all people. It failed to make good on a campaign promise to cut taxes. Infighting led to a series of leadership resignations. When Lindner took the reins of the FDP in 2013, the party had been left for dead. Many believed its time had simply passed. A pro-American, pro-business liberal party was a hard sell in an already crowded political field. Lindner was convinced the opposite was true. Instead of abandoning even accuse him of “competing with Alter- the FDP’s core message, he doubled down. native für Deutschland,” the far-right party More importantly, he rebuilt the party that ran a hard campaign against Chancel- in his own image — literally. No decision lor Merkel’s migration policies and finished in the FDP was made without his blessing. third — ahead of the Free Democrats — in Lindner That focus became apparent during the September’s election. German campaign. The FDP’s posters If Lindner’s strategy was to present the rebuilt the featured photographs of Lindner in his FDP as a kinder, gentler AfD — something party in his daily routine, eating dinner, sitting at home he vigorously denies — it worked. In the “ in an undershirt on his iPhone, or giving months leading up to the election, Lindner own image — interviews. While Germany’s other parties, traveled up and down Germany, peddling whether the Left or the Greens, often ap- the FDP’s traditional message of individ- literally. No peared to be run by committees, the FDP’s ual responsibility, personal freedom and leadership was clear. smaller government. He was also tireless decision in the Now, the question is, what direction will in stressing the need for Germany to invest Lindner take his party? more in digitalization. But it was another FDP is made Even in opposition, he will be a force issue that resonated with voters: migration. to be reckoned with, especially when it Lindner was among the first to sense a without his comes to European reform. He knows that shift in the public’s mood on the refugee blessing. most Germans are instinctively skeptical of crisis in the fall of 2015 and quickly seized further integration and, unlike the Greens, the moment. He called Merkel’s handling isn’t trying to convince them otherwise. of the crisis “chaotic,” emerging as one At the same time, Lindner accepts that of her harshest critics. “By telling anyone Europe needs to change and has said he is looking for a new life that they can find it encouraged that France elected a pro-EU in Germany, Frau Merkel has made prom- president. He acknowledged during the co- ises she can’t keep,” he said. The message alition talks that as a small party, the FDP hit a nerve, especially among conservatives can’t “dictate Europe’s path,” adding that in Merkel’s own party who felt she had he could live with the eurozone’s bailout gone too far. fund if it became “an instrument for more Lindner was hardly alone in criticiz- discipline.” After a recent meeting with ing Merkel, but his prominence on an French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, issue that has come to define her tenure Lindner reported broad agreement on does raise questions about how well the many fronts and a “lively discussion” on pair would work together, should they in the future of the eurozone. some way have to govern together. Even So, will Lindner be an enabler, tackling without that history, Lindner personifies the “thorny opportunities” that emerge to the kind of politician Merkel has always champion reform in Germany and Europe? had difficulty getting along with: flashy, Or will he act as an obstacle, watering outspoken and vain. In contrast to Merkel, down moves to refashion Europe’s infra- who takes hiking vacations in the Alps and Lindner waves to structure and insisting Germany keep its spends weekends at her dacha outside Ber- supporters after results purse close to its breast? If the recent cam- lin making potato soup, Lindner prefers were announced in the paign is any indication, the likely answer is the beaches of Ibiza. To relax, he likes to September election. “all of the above.”

14 PHOTOGRAPH BY JENS SCHLUETER FOR GETTY IMAGES 2

UNITED KINGDOM MICHAEL GOVE

THE TRUE BELIEVER

nly a true Brexit believer like Michael Gove would ask to become Britain’s environment and agricul- O ture secretary. For decades, the job was one of the least important in the British government. After all, most environmental policy was carry through with that ambition is a re- decided in Brussels — making it a ministe- markable turnaround for a man who less rial position with no real power. than a year ago could open the morning paper and count on reading some version But with the United Kingdom leaving the Gove’s of his political obituary. European Union, Gove’s portfolio puts him in a position to radically reshape the portfolio As the brains behind Brexit, the former British landscape — literally. puts him in Times of London columnist brought the “ intellectual ballast to then Mayor of Lon- Gove, 50, a man whom former Prime a position don Boris Johnson’s celebrity stardust. Minister David Cameron once described His side’s victory in the 2016 referen- as “a bit of a Maoist,” made his name with to radically dum buoyed Gove’s prospects — until a a controversial overhaul of Britain’s edu- calamitous run to succeed Cameron left cation system that infuriated teachers. reshape him battered and wounded, exiled to the political wilderness. Now, he has set his sights on the country’s the British agriculture policy, delighting left-wing In the battle for the top job following environmentalists and alarming many landscape Cameron’s resignation, Gove first threw Brexit-backing farmers with proposals — literally. his weight behind Johnson, only to with- that would redirect subsidies away from draw his support on the morning his ally large landowners toward holdings that was formally due to enter the race. take measures — such as banning certain common types of pesticides — to improve The stunning political assassination biodiversity and soil fertility. proved too bloody even for the Con- servative Party and cemented Gove’s That Gove finds himself in a position to reputation as a Tory Brutus. Theresa May

POLITICO 28 15 any fond feelings he had for Gove. The two men no longer speak.

Despite May’s pointed criticism, Gove could not be further from the popular caricature of a top Tory: an amateur gentle- man treating politics as an amusing game.

The roots of his politics run deep. Gove was adopted when he was just four months old; his birth mother — a young, unmarried student in Edinburgh who called him Graham — was unable to cope.

He was renamed Michael by his adoptive parents, Ernest and Christine, a working-class couple from Aberdeen who could not have children themselves. Gove admits to thinking about his adoption often. “I wonder what my birth mother thinks,” he once told an interviewer, in what some saw as a message for her to reach out without hurting his adoptive parents, whom he holds dear. “The people who brought me up are my mum and dad,” he said.

His father ran a fish-sorting business in Aberdeen, but sold it amid the general decline in the British fishing industry — something Gove would later blame on Brussels. During the referendum campaign, he described the EU as a “job-de- stroying machine” that caused misery to communities it had “hollowed out.”

In the debate raging in government between the “hard” and “soft” Brexiteers, there’s no doubting on which side Gove has planted his flag. Around the Cabi- net table, he has reportedly called for emerged as the winner, and Gove was weekly updates on the preparations for a dispatched to the backbenches. When “no-deal” scenario with the EU and sided the newly minted prime minister warned with Johnson against Treasury attempts her Cabinet that “politics is not a game,” to tie Britain close to Brussels’ economic few doubted that he was among those [His model after Brexit. He is also pushing for foremost on her mind. a speedy repatriation of Britain’s fishing colleagues] grounds. It was only after last summer’s general now realize election, when a humiliated May needed “ Gove’s vision for Britain after Brexit and to shore up her power by rebalancing the they need a his intellectual force in government have Cabinet, that Gove was admitted back into sparked rumors that he is being lined up the heart of British power — having made reformer in to take over from Philip Hammond as it known his preferred place in govern- chancellor of the exchequer. ment was crafting environmental policy. the Treasury “Everyone is correcting for mistakes of Gove 2.0 is playing the game differently, and a PM the past,” says one close ally. “Whatever his allies say, but his radicalism burns just his colleagues think of him, they respect as brightly. The environment secretary is with more his intellect. Many of them now realize a Tory, but he is no conservative. He has a character, and they need a reformer in the Treasury and portrait of Lenin in his office. a PM with more character, and they’ve got they’ve got neither at the moment.” Despite being the godfather to one of Cameron’s children, he felt so passionate neither at the What’s clear is that Gove is back in the about leaving the EU that he campaigned game. “He’s a force again, but his big im- against his old friend during the referen- moment.” pact might come later,” his ally says. “He dum — a decision that ultimately deprived is the kingmaker for the next PM.” May the prime minister of his job and certainly A close ally of Gove’s will be watching him carefully.

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FRANCE MURIEL PEnICaUDÉ

MACRON’S IRON FIST

rench Labor Minister Muriel Pénicaud will go down in history as the woman who subdued France’s F unions, even if she did so in far less spectacular fashion than Marga- ret Thatcher did in 1980s Britain. The former chief of human resources at Danone — who picked up a $1.1 million windfall there after axing 900 employees — presided in September over a major turn protests against labor reform into a overhaul of France’s famously protective national movement against Macron, whom labor code, following months of closed- he branded the “president of the rich.” In- door negotiations. stead, the decrees were signed into law in What October with so little fanfare that the world Now being enacted via a series of executive at large barely took notice. decrees, Pénicaud’s reform curtails the Macron had power of French unions by limiting the described as So how did Pénicaud, a 62-year-old native scope of collective bargaining and cap- “ of Versailles, pull it off? By dividing the ping the amount of damages firms have to a ‘Copernican once-mighty unions, swearing them to se- pay for wrongful dismissals. In a country crecy and holding intensive talks to ensure known for the rebelliousness of its working revolution’ no issue was left unaddressed. “Instead class, there will be a “before” and “after” of short-circuiting negotiations, we held Pénicaud’s reforms — with the “after” de- came more than is normal,” she says. Over two fined by less rancorous labor relations. months, Pénicaud and Prime Minister about with Edouard Philippe spent more than 300 And yet, what French President Emmanuel surprisingly hours huddled with the five major unions Macron had described during the cam- separately for dozens of hours. In the end, paign as a “Copernican revolution” came little fracas. only the hard-line CGT union called for about with surprisingly little fracas. There protests, which drew scant crowds. were protests, but on such a small scale that they never threatened the reform — or Macron’s authority. Far-left firebrand Muriel Pénicaud, a 62-year-old native of Jean-Luc Mélenchon tried, and failed, to Versailles, opposite, at her office in Paris.

18 POLITICO 28 “We combined speed with intensity for could yet be derailed by legal troubles the negotiations,” she says. “Our aim was dating back to a stint as the head of state to transform reality, not have endless body Business France, over her role at debates on principle.” Two factors played a lavish event promoting French tech in her favor: good timing and meticulous Our aim was startups, at which Macron — then economy preparation. “Macron had clearly an- minister — was a star speaker. At issue is a nounced changes to the labor code when to transform $300,000 no-bid contract for organizing he was a candidate,” she says. “That gave reality, not the event that was awarded to the Havas him strength and legitimacy.” Macron’s “ PR agency. presidential campaign had also queried have endless thousands of potential voters on the state Magistrates are questioning witnesses and of the country. debates on could call in Pénicaud. If placed under formal investigation, she will have to step Now Macron wants to use Pénicaud’s principle.” down immediately. And Macron will need negotiating skills again to overhaul the another iron fist to carry out his agenda. In country’s deeply indebted unemployment Muriel Pénicaud on the meantime, Pénicaud is pressing ahead. insurance system and its inefficient job labor reform under Asked whether she expects to be running training programs. Both efforts will require French President a marathon or a sprint in coming months, delicate management of unions. But while Emmanuel Macron she answers: “A marathon at the pace of a organized labor is in disarray, Pénicaud sprint.”

PHOTOGRAPH BY JOEL SAGET FOR AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE 19 IS

Illustration by Mike McQuade WHERE

THE

Turkey believes capturing the man they call ‘the runaway imam’ will prove WORLD who was behind last year’s attempted coup

By Zia Weise

ADIL

ÖKSÜZ? dil Öksüz first came to the attention of Turkish authorities when a shepherd called local officials to report a A suspicious sight. It was the morning after Tur- key’s failed coup in July 2016. The shepherd was tending his flock by the crater-lined runway of Akıncı Air Base, northwest of Ankara. Throughout the night, departing rebel jets had roared off as they raced toward the capital. Their airstrikes killed dozens of people in Ankara, and stopped only when government forces bombed the tarmac two hours after sunrise. So the shepherd was alarmed when, not long after the dust had settled, he spotted a man in civilian dress, accompanied by several soldiers, attempting to slip past the wire fence surrounding the base and into the wheat fields beyond. The gendarmerie swooped in and arrested the group before it could reach the road. Öksüz, the man in civilian cloth- ing, was a theology professor at Sakarya University near Istanbul. The explanation he offered for being near the air base was scarcely believable: He said he had been looking at land to purchase. Other details in his story also raised suspicion. No taxi driver would corrobo- rate Öksüz’s claim that he had taken a cab to the air base that morning. The addresses he listed in his statements to the court would later be found to be abandoned. State prosecutors asked that the professor be placed in custody. Instead, two days after he was picked up, Öksüz was set free. The judge who signed the order would later admit to being a follower of Fethullah Gülen, the Pennsylvania-based cleric the Turkish government blames for the attempt to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The soldiers detained with him — like hundreds of other officers captured across be convinced that Gülen was personally the country — remained in custody. involved. The United States government Weeks later, the Turkish government says it has not received enough evidence would name Öksüz as the man who orga- to warrant the 76-year-old preacher’s nized the failed takeover on Gülen’s behalf. Turkish extradition. By then, he had long disappeared — slipped “We know Adil Öksüz had an important out of the country, authorities believe, pos- prosecutors role in the coup attempt of July 15, we know sibly to Germany or elsewhere in Europe. say Öksüz he is a key name,” Turkish Prime Minister Dubbed by the Turkish press as the “ Binali Yıldırım told reporters in March. “But “runaway imam,” Öksüz ranks among (pictured unfortunately he is on the run.” Turkey’s most-wanted men. And with good reason. Should he be captured and brought above) used IT’S VERY LIKELY THAT ÖKSÜZ IS A to testify, he could provide the government GÜLENIST, as the cleric’s followers are with its most solid evidence yet that Gülen a religious known. Gülen told France 24 in July masterminded the failed coup. 2017 that Öksüz belonged to one of the Ankara maintains that Öksüz served as holiday to movement’s study groups when he was a the main liaison between Gülen and those student “around 30 years ago,” and he had that carried out the attempt, shuttling back finalize plans come to his compound in Pennsylvania and forth between Turkey and Pennsylva- to stage the “a few years ago,” but did “not know” if nia to receive and transmit orders from the he had returned the July before the coup. cleric. coup. Gülen did not respond to POLITICO’s He is the government’s best chance at request for comment. proving its claims — and a chance to win On the surface, Öksüz, 50, lived an over key Western allies that have yet to unremarkable life: Born in a village in the

22 PHOTOGRAPH BY GETTY IMAGES — an accusation that rests on the testimony of two dismissed officers codenamedŞap - ka (“hat”) and Kuzgun (“raven”), who say they witnessed the meeting. The statements are crucial to the government’s case against Öksüz, but there are reasons to doubt their reliability: Gareth Jenkins, an independent analyst in Istanbul who has written extensively on the coup attempt, notes the information Şapka divulged was already circulating in the public domain by the time he appeared in court. Kuzgun, too, had little to add. Shortly after this meeting allegedly took place, Öksüz made yet another trip to the U.S. On July 11, four days before parts of the Turkish military rose up against Erdoğan, he boarded a Turkish Airlines flight from Istanbul Atatürk Airport to New York JFK. He was seated in business class. Busi- nessman Kemal Batmaz — another prominent Gülenist who would also later be caught near Akıncı Air Base — sat several rows behind him in economy. The government claims it was during this trip that Öksüz received Gülen’s final approval for the coup. It was a whirlwind visit: On July 13, both Batmaz and Öksüz returned to Turkey, once again aboard the same flight. Two days later, tanks blocked Istanbul’s Bosphorus Bridge, soldiers surrounded Taksim Square, and from Akıncı Air Base, fighter jets took off to bombard Turkey’s parliament.

THE AIR BASE WHERE ÖKSÜZ WAS PICKED UP lay at the heart of the attempted coup. Loyalist generals taken hostage that night — including Hulusi Akar, the chief of general staff — were brought there to be held. Several civilians with ties to Gülen were arrested nearby the next day. Öksüz seems to have taken an interest Taurus Mountains, he studied theology Soliders involved in last in Akıncı long before the coup attempt. and rose to become an assistant professor year’s military coup According to phone signal data obtained at Sakarya University, a two-hour drive attempt to surrender on by state prosecutors, the theologian visited from Istanbul. He married, had two chil- the Bosphorus Bridge the area a dozen times between December dren and published nothing but his disser- in Istanbul. More than 2015 and June 2016. tation. His mugshot, taken on the morning 300 people on both sides This, state prosecutors say, is proof that he was detained at the air base, shows a were killed before the he was the Gülenist movement’s “imam of balding man with a faint mustache. government regained the air force” — the group bestows the title Yet, Öksüz’s travel history appears ex- control. “imam” on those responsible for organiz- travagant for the modest income of a pro- ing its followers in a country, profession or vincial academic. In the past decade and other group. a half, Öksüz reportedly traveled abroad And yet, evidence placing Öksüz at the more than 100 times, often to the U.S. By base at the time of the coup is scarce. Doz- the end of June 2016, less than three weeks ens of officers were present at the base that before the failed coup, he had already night, but in subsequent court appearances, jetted stateside twice that year. only three people said they had seen him. At the beginning of July, the government None offered much detail. Base Com- gave all public sector employees nine days mander Hakan Evrim testified that he off work to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the holiday had spotted Öksüz at some point during marking the end of the Muslim fasting the night. Müslim Macit, a pilot who had month of Ramadan. dropped bombs on Ankara’s presidential State prosecutors say Öksüz used this complex, told a court last year: “I saw a time to summon his military co-conspira- person who looked like Öksüz.” A third of- tors to a villa in Ankara to finalize the plot ficer, helicopter pilot Uğur Kapan, retract-

POLITICO 28 23 ed his statement in a court appearance this summer, saying that his earlier testimony had been extracted under torture. In any case, by the time Öksüz was captured near the base’s perimeter, the coup had failed. Thousands of citizens had taken to the streets in protest, facing off against tanks and guns. Some 250 people had been killed, plus an unknown number of soldiers on the plotters’ side. Erdoğan was quick to name a culprit: the Gülen movement. To most Turks, the group seemed the most likely candidate; after all, the cleric’s followers were known to have infiltrated state institutions before and after Erdoğan’s rise to power. Tur- key’s quasi-official Anadolu news agency informed its readers that the man who had led the coup attempt was Muharrem Köse, a colonel who had been dismissed months earlier. A manhunt began. Öksüz was not yet on the government’s radar. Released on July 18, he walked out of the courthouse and made a beeline for the airport, boarding a plane to Istanbul. The next day, state investigators later found out, a cell tower located Öksüz’s phone in Sakarya, where he lived and taught. That same day, Muharrem Köse was detained. “Coup planner arrested!” the headlines read. In the following weeks, the government would conclude that Köse was probably not the ringleader and turn its attention on Öksüz. It offered no explanation for the shift. In any case, by then the theologian was long gone.

ÖKSÜZ’S MYSTERIOUS DISAPPEARANCE unleashed wild speculation in Turkey over his allegiances and whereabouts. He has been supposedly spotted across all of Eu- rope, from Georgia’s Black Sea resort town Batumi to London’s Portobello Market. doubt Gülen masterminded the coup. (The latter was a lookalike.) A report by the EU Intelligence Anal- Pro-government columnists quickly ysis Centre, which analyzes information labeled the theologian a CIA agent and provided by EU countries’ intelligence and felt vindicated after local media reported Dozens of security services, leaked to the Times of that the U.S. Embassy in Ankara had called London, posits that the conspirators are Öksüz on July 21, two days after his vanish- officers were not all Gülenists. Instead, the report con- ing act. He never picked up. present at cludes, the plotters are likely a loose coa- The U.S. Embassy says it made a routine “ lition of dissatisfied officers that includes call to inform Öksüz that his visa had been the base that Gülenists but also secularists, opportunists canceled. But to conspiracy theorists, it and government opponents of all stripes. was proof enough — especially when, a night, but in “It is unlikely that Gülen himself played month after the coup attempt, USA Today a role in the attempt,” says the August 2016 reported that a company registered by subsequent report. (Turkey called the report “biased.”) Öksüz had donated $5,000 to a Hillary Bruno Kahl, the head of Germany’s Clinton campaign group in 2014. appearances, intelligence service BND, says he does not Newspapers have dubbed Öksüz the only three said believe Gülen was involved in the coup “black box” of the coup attempt, the man attempt. “Turkey has tried to convince us holding all information on the plot. Colum- they had seen of that at every level but so far it has not nists and analysts close to the government have speculated that he may have been not him. just the Gülenists’ leader in the air force, The Turkish government alleges that but the “imam of the entire army.” this CCTV footage shows the arrest of Turkey’s Western allies are unim- Adil Öksüz (top) and Kemal Batmaz at pressed. European intelligence agencies Ankara’s Akıncı Air Base on July 16, 2016.

24 PHOTOGRAPHS BY ANADOLU (THIS PAGE) AND SASHA MASLOV FOR REDUX (OPPOSITE) Fethullah Gülen lives in a compound in Pennsylvania.

POLITICO 28 25 movement as a terror group, and Germany granted asylum to hundreds of suspected Gülenists this year. The Öksüz case has also damaged U.S.-Turkish ties. In October, Turkey arrested a local employee of the U.S. Consulate in Istanbul, accusing him of espionage and threatening the constitutional order. Erdoğan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin told reporters: “The arrested U.S. consulate worker was found to have had frequent communication with the Gülenist suspect Adil Öksüz.” Washington condemned the allegations as baseless, and in retaliation U.S. diplomatic missions in Turkey have suspended the processing of non-immigrant visas. Ankara responded in kind, halting visa processing in its embassy and consulates in the U.S. and shutting down e-visa services for American citizens. In its pursuit of suspected Gülenists, An- kara is evidently prepared to risk foreign relations and its economy. (The Turkish lira has taken a nosedive against the dollar since the beginning of the diplomatic spat with the U.S.) The Turkish government is desperate to prove its version of the events, and Öksüz’s involvement lies at the heart of its argument. After all, the post-coup purge, in which tens of thousands have been arrested succeeded,” he told Der Spiegel in March. for alleged links to Gülen, relies on the The U.S. too, remains unconvinced assumption that the cleric’s movement is by Ankara’s evidence. “We haven’t seen solely responsible. [proof] yet,” National Intelligence Director And yet, Öksüz aside, the government’s James Clapper said shortly after the coup. It’s very case against the Pennsylvania-based cleric “We certainly haven’t seen it in intel.” rests largely on a statement by Chief of Asked about Turkey’s extradition easy to say he General Staff Akar, who claimed a rebel request in September, a U.S. State Depart- was absolutely officer offered to put him in touch with ment spokesperson said, “We continue to “ Gülen. The officer denied the accusation. evaluate it, take a look at the materials that central. Without testimony from Öksüz, the the Turkish Government has provided us. evidence tying Gülen to those who carried I don’t have anything new for you on the Because out the coup is weak. The purpose of the subject of that.” theologian’s trip to the U.S. in July 2016 is you can’t unknown. There is no evidence he visited SKEPTICISM FROM ABROAD HAS ADD- Gülen in Pennsylvania ahead of the coup, ED URGENCY to Turkey’s attempts to question him.” and there’s little proof he was the “imam” locate Öksüz. This summer, the country’s of the air force. newspapers became fixated on the idea Gareth Jenkins, an As long as Öksüz remains missing, that he was living in Germany. Reported independent analyst in Ankara’s claims are hard to prove — and to sightings in Hanover, Frankfurt and Ulm Istanbul who has written disprove. “It’s very easy to say he was ab- eventually prompted the Turkish govern- extensively on the coup solutely central,” says Jenkins, the analyst. ment to take action. attempt, on Öksüz “Because you can’t question him.” In August, Ankara handed Germany a Erdoğan should be careful what he diplomatic note demanding the theolo- wishes for. Öksüz’s capture would not be gian’s extradition. Erdoğan said he expect- without risk. If the government fails to pin ed Berlin to “take the necessary steps” down his participation in the attempted regarding Öksüz. coup, its case against Gülen might start to Martin Schäfer, a German foreign min- unravel. istry spokesman, told reporters in August “If he wasn’t involved, if there is some that the government would look into it, innocent explanation — it’s difficult to think, adding there was no proof of Öksüz’s pres- but if there is — the whole government ence in Germany. narrative just collapses,” says Jenkins. If the fugitive theologian were to resur- face in Germany, it would put yet another dent in strained Turkish-German relations. A week after the coup attempt, The Turkish government defines Gülen’s Turks celebrate its defeat in Istanbul.

26 PHOTOGRAPH BY UMIT TURHAN COSKUN FOR AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES 4

THE NETHERLANDS MaRK RUTTE

THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE

he Franco-German axis is back. But if Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron aim to pilot the jumbo jet T that is Europe toward tighter integration, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte plans to be in the control tower calling them back down to earth. “I am a politician so I am not against talking,” says Rutte. “But I am also very practical. There is always risk in general that we like more to think about next steps instead of ‘Hey guys, there is still a Berlin’s push for economic and political lot to be done.’” integration, or whether he will take on the blocking role historically played by the Credited with breaking the populist wave United Kingdom. The answer, according to by fending off his far-right challenger Geert I am a those who know him best, is: both. Wilders in the national election last spring, Rutte, 50, has emerged as the most promi- politician Rutte maintains voters are swayed less by nent liberal voice on the European Council so I am lofty words than concrete deliverables, and — and a top contender to replace Donald “ he has pushed his fellow leaders to focus Tusk as its president in 2019. not against less on the next big thing and more on the bloc’s unfinished to-do list — specifically A political Goldilocks who believes his talking.” issues like migration, security and unem- Dutch-style not-too-hot, not-too-cold ployment that have fueled populist parties temperament offers the best path forward Mark Rutte across the Continent. “Complaining to our for Europe, Rutte has moved to fill the void voters that they should not vote for these caused by Brexit, assembling a coalition of parties is not a solution,” he says. “The like-minded nations to serve as a coun- solution is taking care of legitimate worries terweight — or third pole — to French and of our populations.” German dominance.

What remains to be seen is whether Rutte He’s emerged as the most prominent will throw his weight behind Paris and liberal voice on the European Council.

POLITICO 28 27 5

ITALY LaURa BOLDRInI

LA PRESIDENTE

o judge by the torrent of online abuse directed at her, Laura Bol- drini is Italy’s most hated woman. T Since her election as president of the lower house of parliament in 2013, she’s become a target of misogynistic insults, sexualized attacks and death threats. Her crime: using her usually ceremonial office to raise the visibility of women in politics in a country in which they all too often remain outside the con- fines of power.

Boldrini’s welcoming stance toward mi- IN HER started laughing then,” she recalls with a grants — her past work as spokesperson for WORDS smile. “But, really, there was nothing to the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR laugh about.” put her on the frontlines of the crisis — was You can change one thing never going to make her popular among about the EU. What is it? Boldrini has also championed legislation some slices of the political spectrum. Most urgent are economic addressing an epidemic of violence against But it’s her campaign to change the way policies, which should women and pushed the fight against online women in power are talked about that has focus on growth instead of hate speech to the top of the political agen- caused the most vitriol. austerity. That would give da. “A lot remains to be done, especially if hope to young people and we consider the surging numbers of abus- On taking office, Boldrini, 56, objected to would make it possible for es, rapes and murders perpetrated against how many Italian political titles, includ- them to trust Europe. women,” she says. “I was expecting Italian ing her own, assume a masculine form, men and politicians to raise their voice implying its bearer is a man: il presidente, il “Europe.” Pick three words loudly against that. But I’m still waiting.” ministro, il senatore, il sindaco (the mayor). that first spring to mind. She demanded to be called “la presidente,” Peace, freedom and and when (male) members of parliament challenge. Laura Boldrini hangs a red flag outside insisted on using the masculine form, she her office window to denounce violence used a feminized version of their title — la against women; Actual hate speech deputata — to address them. “Everybody (opposite) directed toward her online.

28 PHOTOGRAPH BY ANGELO CARCONI FOR EPA

SLOVENIA anUSKŠ a DELICĆ

THE LEAD INVESTIGATOR

nuška Delić wants to blow a hole in the walls of the European Parliament. Her frustration? The A institution’s refusal to disclose how its MEPs spend some €450 million a year in taxpayer money.

When the Slovenian investigative journalist first asked the Parliament for spending data in 2014, her request was denied on IN HER Those requests too were all denied, so the grounds that it would undermine the WORDS Delić and her colleagues have been prying privacy of the institution’s 751 members. out information with direct requests to “In Slovenia, I could get this information Who are your heroes? parliamentarians. A report published in literally in a minute,” says Delić, 40, who My grandmother Anđelka May revealed the lack of transparency in was also part of the team of journalists that taught me how to persevere how parliamentarians spend the €4,342 a reported on the Panama Papers scandal, and be strong. Leonard month they are given to maintain a constit- and faced legal action in Slovenia for Cohen’s songs taught me uency office in their home country. uncovering links between the ruling cen- how to love. ter-right party and neo-Nazi groups. Delić acknowledges her work could indi- rectly aid anti-EU politics. She is keen to “How can this be private data?” she says, What’s the most important emphasize that her problem isn’t the EU speaking of Parliament spending. “This is issue nobody talks about? but “the opacity of the system.” directly opposite to all principles of public We need to figure out spending. We have a big, big problem.” how to leave our children In any case, she says, she’s just getting a society, a country and started. In October, the European Court of Delić’s response was to pull together the a planet that is not in Justice held its first hearing in an attempt MEPs Project, a loose network of journalists utter shambles. We also by Delić to force Parliament to comply representing all 28 EU countries. Together, haven’t spent enough with her requests. A victory would set a she and her compatriots bombarded the time reckoning with the precedent that could be applied to other Parliament with freedom of information re- unsustainable, unhealthy institutions, forcing them to open the quests, demanding documentation detailing and often cruel ways accounts of European commissioners and how MEPs spend the professional allowanc- of breeding animals for judges. Anybody working for the European es they receive on top of their paychecks. consumption. institutions, she says, will be “fair game.”

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FINLAND JYRKI KaTaInEn

THE STEADY HAND

n a list of people shaking and stirring Europe, Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen is the ice in the glass: I solid and essential. That may not sound exciting. But in an era when voters are hollering at governments to pour more and faster, when many other public officials are fumbling their cups or can’t hold their liquor, rock-square, cool-headed steadiness is a power on its own.

Katainen, 46, is a former Finnish prime It’s not clear he wants the job, but his minister and finance minister, and his party may well try to draft him. Katainen portfolio at the European Commission is among the most prominent of a new includes real stuff that real people care generation of leaders in the European Peo- about: jobs; security and defense financ- His recipe ple’s Party — the center-right family that ing; trade; a rather grandiose social policy dominates European politics (some have effort called “harnessing globalization” for the future also floated him as a potential president of and — one of his favorites — the financial of Europe: the European Council). reuse-and-recycle strategy known as “cir- “ cular economy.” National Katainen has instant credibility when he talks about Europe’s future: As the father In 2018, he will have a crucial role in capitals of daughters, aged 12 and 8, he has skin in two concrete agenda items: pushing to the game. An avid chef, he enjoys cooking complete the European monetary union must drive Finnish cuisine, especially venison roasts and deepening EU military cooperation. and pan-fried game birds. His recipe for That makes him key to making the final the agenda, the future of Europe: National capitals stretch of President Jean-Claude Juncker’s not Brussels. — what he calls the “owners” of the EU Commission a success, delivering on the — must drive the agenda, not Brussels. “I promises that have so far gone unfulfilled. would like to see that our member states It also makes him a contender to replace take the leadership of Europe again,” he Juncker when his term comes to an end. says.

32 PHOTOGRAPH BY MARKUS PENTIKÄINEN FOR OTAVAMEDIA VIA LEHTIKUVA PHOTOGRAPH FROM BELGA ARCHIVES 33 8

RUSSIA GaLIna TIMCHEnKO

THE WATCHDOG ÉMIGRÉ

alina Timchenko, the 55-year-old founder and CEO of the influential dissident Russian news website Me- G duza, is an unlikely Putin-buster. She’s bespectacled and soft-spo- ken, and gentler in person than the fierce, snake-haired she-monster that inspired the name of her provocative publication. Yet in the three years since she was ousted from her 10-year tenure as editor-in-chief of the leading Russian news portal Lenta.ru for rare coup for a Russian website. her “anti-patriotic” Ukraine coverage, she’s shown a steely, Medusa-like determination “Everything that’s happened to me and to in fighting back against attempts to gag the Meduza in the past three years feels like a Russian press. Three years miracle,” gushes Timchenko. “Three years ago I had no hope and no thoughts. Now I Her exiled media startup, based out of ago I had no feel as if I’m 35 years old again.” reach from the Kremlin’s grasp in NATO hope and no member country Latvia, clocked over 8 “ Timchenko has reason to pat herself on the million unique visitors in the summer. thoughts. Now back: She, along with the tens of former It’s now one of the top 10 quoted sites in Lenta.ru journalists who resigned along the Russian media. Unlike other Russian I feel as if I’m with her in solidarity, have proved that news sites that fear retribution for their independent Russian media can thrive in anti-Kremlin stories, Meduza can criticize 35 years old exile. And as Russians head into a presi- with relative impunity from its base in dential election year in 2018 — with upstart Riga. It’s free to pursue its investigations again.” Alexei Navalny hoping to be allowed to into hot-button topics like corruption in challenge an entrenched Putin — Meduza Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner Galina Timchenko has become an indispensable source of circle and U.S. election hacking. Meduza (who is 55 years old) impartial news for the Russian public. recently partnered with popular American With its English-language articles, Meduza site Buzzfeed to share content and pool is also turning into the go-to portal for their journalistic resources together in a those interested in Russia, yet suspicious

34 POLITICO 28 WHAT WORRIES YOU ABOUT RUSSIA IN 2018?

1. The presidential election The idea of “Putin forever” really scares me.

2. Strengthening of Orthodox fundamentalists Radicals are trying to interfere in every aspect of our cultural and social life.

3. Ramzan Kadyrov and his troops Chechnya is a state within a state and absolutely outside the Russian legislative and justice system.

4. Online restrictions The Kremlin is tightening its control on the internet.

5. Isolation The possibility Russia could be excluded from European processes and become an “outlaw.”

SIX MORE QUESTIONS

You can change one thing about the EU. What is it? Free Wi-Fi. It’s a real problem to get online in some European countries.

Who are your heroes? Steve Jobs for his brilliant mind and brave heart; Angela Merkel for her diligence and self-control; Mikhail Baryshnikov for his talent, passion and success.

What’s the most important issue nobody talks about? What is real tolerance? Where is the limit? Should we be tolerant of ignorance and hatred, be understanding when it comes to denying freedom of speech?

Tells us something of Kremlin-controlled media outlets like surprising about yourself. Sputnik and RT. I studied medicine and all my friends ask me for advice Having become a grandmother this past not about journalism, but summer, Timchenko has yet another rea- Being in exile about their health. son to be cheerful. Despite having family in Russia, she has no plans to relocate back is part of our “Europe.” Pick three words anytime soon. “Being in exile is part of our DNA now.” that first spring to mind. DNA now,” she says with conviction. “We “ Culture, balance, open can only return when Russia is ready for a borders. [That’s four, free and independent press.” Galina Timchenko but who’s counting?]

Where is the EU in 10 years? Timchenko, above, at the Meduza office I hate prognoses. in Latvia — outside the reach of Putin. They never come true.

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The future of energy. Today MEET THE 28

António 9 Costa

Guy 10 Verhofstadt

Armin 11 Wolf

Etienne 12 Schneider

Meral 13 Akşener

Zbigniew InSIDE 14 Ziobro Naomi O’Leary looks ahead to the Italian election, Simon asking the country’s ‘crisis generation’ how such a Europhilic 15 Harris country could become one of its most disaffected.Page 38

Ana 16 Botín

Flavia DaTa POInT: 17 Kleiner LIFE In EUROPE

Average time spent watching TV daily, in minutes (in 2016)

Romania 329

Greece 258

Germany 223

Ireland 179

Sweden 149

Sources: Statista, RTL

POLITICO 28 37

HOW ITALY TURNED EUROSKEPTIC

The country’s crisis generation prepares to vote for the first time

By Naomi O’Leary Illustrations by Zoë van Dijk avide Ruggeri, an 18-year-old high school student in Rome, first began to notice the effects of the migra- D tion crisis in his early teens. It was a time when North Africa was in turmoil. Thousands of people were fleeing in makeshift boats to Italy’s coasts and moving up through the rail network, in search of better lives in the wealthier countries of Northern Europe. Some made it to Ruggeri’s neighborhood on the eastern outskirts of Rome, where they eked out a living in squats and the black economy. The son of a teacher and an IT techni- cian, Ruggeri holds the view — widespread in Italy — that the country has been abandoned by the European Union and forced to deal with the crisis alone: bearing the brunt without adequate funds to deal with it, disadvantaged by EU rules that asylum seekers must claim refuge in the country they first arrive in, irrespective of whether they hoped to travel on to another EU country. Asked whether he feels European, he hesitates. “It’s a really good question,” Ruggeri pauses. “Yes. I feel like a European citizen because we are in the EU, and we are one of the founding members. But at this moment I don’t see good things from Europe, because of the problems with immigration. They are helping us very little. There’s an emergency, and it seems like the only thing that’s important to them is money.” Ruggeri is a member of an Italian generation that has known only economic stagnation, and which will head to the ballot box for the first time in a general election next spring. They were born around the same time as the euro — 1999 — and are now old enough to vote. They’ve seen nothing but political and economic crises since their childhoods, and politicians apparently unable to fix them. The experiences of this euro gener- perhaps it might get better, but I suppose ation are one of the reasons behind the it’s something that happens slowly,” she widespread public disillusionment with adds. “I can’t remember a time when the Italian politics. They also help explain why situation of Italy was good.” Italy has gone from being one of the most enthusiastic members of the EU to one of IN COUNTRIES LIKE FRANCE, THE U.K., its most disaffected — and why the country Germany and the Netherlands, polls show stands a not-so-little risk of handing the a notable generational difference in atti- reins of government over to a Euroskeptic tudes toward the EU. Young people tend to leader. feel more positively toward the bloc, while This outcome would upturn the EU’s older people tend to hold less favorable political order and possibly reignite the fi- opinions. nancial bonfire that the Continent’s leaders In Italy, the trend is reversed. Voters have only recently managed to bring back aged under 45 are significantly more likely under control. Davide Ruggeri, 18, to think Italy is on the wrong track (71 “In my life, it seems that it has always says Italy has been percent, compared to half of voters over been like this,” says 19-year-old Marialuce abandoned by the EU to 45), according to a study conducted by Giardini, a Milan native who has finished deal with the migration Benenson Strategy Group in October. school but is not yet in work or university. crisis on its own. The study found that if Italy were to “As long as I can remember there has been hold a referendum on EU membership, talk of crisis, and about how Italy needs to 51 percent of voters under 45 would vote fix its economy.” to leave, while 46 percent would vote to “A couple of years ago it seemed like remain. In contrast, respondents over 45

40 ILLUSTRATIONS BY ZOË VAN DIJK FOR POLITICO; PHOTOGRAPH BY FILIPPO MONTEFORTE FOR AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES old from the Aosta valley who recently began studying at the University of Geneva in Switzerland. “Young people definitely believe they are cut off from politics.” Asked what major events he recalls living through, Borre reels off the prime ministers the country has churned through in the last six years. “Berlusconi, Monti, Letta, Renzi ...” he says. “No one was able to have a full mandate. The governments were changing rapidly.” Borre’s generation is the most educated in Italy, but it also has the EU’s highest percentage of young people not in education, training or work — almost a third, according to Eurostat. Youth unemployment is the highest after Greece and Spain. For those with jobs, conditions are highly lop- sided: a young army of precarious workers that can only dream of one day being granted the iron-clad contracts, pensions and protections of their older colleagues. It’s a generation that thinks it will be worse off than their parents. Eight in 10, according to a survey of 16- to 30-year-olds conducted by the European Commission, believe young people have been excluded from a good economic and social life by the economic crisis. These conditions have led to a long-running brain drain that has accelerated in recent years as young people — often the most ambitious and talented — seek better prospects abroad: a loss of Italy’s most cosmopolitan voices that further reduces the group that could introduce generational change. Borre, the son of a teacher and a retired health worker, describes the EU in positive terms as an institution that allowed him to travel and learn English, and that invested in infrastructure in his region. But like many internationally minded Italians, Borre does not see a future for himself in Italy. supported staying in the bloc by 68 per- “At the moment I have no plans to go cent to 26 percent. back,” he says. “I’m more interested in the Younger voters’ unhappiness with the wider world.” EU came from a sense that what’s good for the bloc comes at Italy’s expense. Strong ALMOST AS SOON AS THE FIRST EURO majorities among the young said that the NOTES and coins began changing hands migrant crisis showed the EU could not be in Italy in 2002, the currency became the counted on to help Italy with its biggest focus of generalized economic grievance. challenges. What it showed, they conclud- Ordinary Italians began grumbling that ed, is that the EU only cared about itself. prices had gone up while wages stayed the There’s one thing young Italian voters same. Politicians tapped into this early: have in common with their peers in other The Northern League called for a referen- European countries: Less likely to vote, dum on the return of the lira as early as they are rarely courted by politicians, 2005. As prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi making them less interested in politics. But Federico Borre, 19, used international events to play up fric- even then, in Italy the problem is exacer- feels a generation gap tion with Germany and appeal to Italian bated by demography. With nearly half of in Italian politics. Nearly pride. the Italian population older than 45, the half the population is Fast forward to 2017, and the euro and young are outnumbered. older than 45. the EU have been turned into rhetorical “For sure, the people who are in power punching bags by politicians of all stripes — now are really old. They are very removed from left to right, regionalist to neo-fascist. from what we need now, and the needs of Conveniently, they shift blame for Italy’s the future,” says Federico Borre, a 19-year- problems outside the country.

POLITICO 28 41 Overall, just 39 percent of Italians believe the country has benefited on balance from being in the EU: the lowest level in the bloc, according to a recent Kantar survey by the European Parliament. It’s a striking turnaround for a country that was once among the most enthusiastic about integration: the birthplace of EU founding father Altiero Spinelli and of the EU’s precursor, the European Economic Community. The shift is reflected in the platforms and promises of the political parties that will compete in the next election, due before May 20, 2018. The 5Star Move- ment, which wants a referendum on euro membership, is forecast to win a quarter of the votes or more. The anti-immigrant, Eu- roskeptic Northern League has the support of another 16 percent. It’s also reflected in how young people are casting their ballots. In a vote last year that was widely seen in Italy as a blow against the establishment, Italians aged 18-34 voted in large numbers against center-left former Prime Minister as excessively punitive. Beppe Matteo Renzi’s electoral reform, siding with “I absolutely don’t feel like a European Grillo’s a No campaign championed by the 5Star citizen,” Dedi said. 5Star Movement and the Northern League. There is some evidence that the euro Movement has benefited stronger economies like Ger- is forecast DARIO DEDI, A 20-YEAR-OLD FIRST- many while making Italy less competitive. to win a YEAR politics student at the University of Eurostat data shows Italians have become quarter of Trieste, dreams of one day entering par- steadily poorer in terms of what they can the votes liament. Born to a seamstress and a truck buy since 2005. or more. driver, his first taste of public service was But the reasons for that are not clear- as a student representative on the council cut: There was already economic stag- of his school in Portogruaro, a town in nation before the euro, and indigenous northeast Italy. structural problems are also at least partly The position meant he could read his responsible. Even if the euro has damaged school’s financial accounts. Dario Dede, a Italy, it is not clear that leaving the curren- “The cuts to education were clear,” Dedi 20-year-old politics cy — almost certain to be an economically says. “The school wasn’t able to cover its student, hopes to one traumatic event — would fix matters. expenses.” It introduced a voluntary tax day be a member of Yet politically, these nuances may not for parents to be able to keep going. Ex- parliament. “I think my matter. Criticism of the euro and the EU re- pected funds from the central government generation has been liably resonates with part of the electorate. did not arrive. failed in many respects,” It is unclear what policies Euroskeptics “I think that my generation has been he says. would adopt if their rhetoric helps elevate failed in many respects,” Dedi says. them into positions of power. Even the Asked what the most pressing issue most anti-EU parties have been inconstant should be for the next government, Dedi rein their messaging, dialing back demands plies “immigration.” He describes attitudes to exit the EU outright to mere calls for to immigrants changing among the people reforms, as Brexit tests out what ending he knows in Veneto, in Italy’s northeast, membership really means. and said politicians needed to take action or In recent months, the 5Stars, the the results could be dangerous. Northern League and Silvio Berlusconi’s “Politics isn’t just what political parties Forza Italia have all settled on the idea of talk about,” Dedi says. “It’s what you hear calling for an alternative, parallel currency between people when they speak about to the euro. As a policy, it’s economically politics in the bar.” dubious and potentially destabilizing, but “I believe that immigration could it taps into the national unhappiness while endanger Italian democracy, because it skirting the radicalism of dumping the is causing revolutionary and even violent currency altogether. feelings in the working-class areas, in the What is clear is that dissatisfaction with stomach of the country,” he said. the EU and the euro will feature prominent- A supporter of the 5Star Movement, ly in Italy’s election, and potentially in many Dedi views Italy’s adoption of the euro as elections to come, as the country’s long a historic mistake that shackled the Italian economic stagnation drags on and Italy’s economy. He views EU rules on spending crisis generation continues to grow.

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PORTUGAL aNTÓnIO COSTa

THE SUCCESSFUL LEFTIST

ntónio Costa is a rare thing in today’s Europe: a successful Socialist. After guiding his party to a record a victory in October’s municipal elections, the Portuguese prime minister heads into the new year hoping to do even better.

Although his popularity was dented by criticism of the government’s handling Next year, Costa will have to continue his of deadly forest fires in June and Octo- economic balancing act, face down a new ber, Costa’s supporters hope Portugal’s opposition leader and deploy his political fast-paced economic recovery will quickly skills to manage a tricky relationship with restore the PM’s standing. What’s the two far-left parties that prop up his minority government. The goal is securing Unlike other Socialists tainted by associ- happening in an absolute majority in the next parliamen- ation with tough times, Costa — a tough Portugal is an tary elections, due in 2019. political streetfighter behind a ready “ campaign smile — has managed to present example of a Europe’s Socialists have beaten a path to himself as a champion of change, able to Costa’s door. “What’s happening in Por- “turn the page on austerity.” He’s displayed government tugal is an example … of what you can do a remarkable ability to balance leftist de- with a government action program that is mands to reverse recession-era belt-tight- true to your both credible and true to your values,” for- ening with a cautious thrift that’s pleased mer French President François Hollande foreign investors and Portugal’s partners in values.” told the Lisbon weekly Expresso. the eurozone. Former French President Those hoping that Portugal will lead a “If there is one thing all commentators François Hollande European center-left resurgence, howev- agree on, it’s António Costa’s political sav- er, are likely to be disappointed. As Costa vy,” says André Azevedo Alves, a political admits, Portugal’s model is hard to export. expert at Lisbon’s Catholic University and “There are no prêt-à-porter reforms,” he St. Mary’s University in London. “There’s says. “They must be tailored to the specific near unanimity on his political skills.” needs of each country.”

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BELGIUM GUY VERHOFSTaDT

THE LIBERAL LION

ew in the European Parliament can match Guy Verhofstadt’s oratorical firepower. But while F the former Belgian prime minister is always sure to be found in the thick of Europe’s political action, he has more often than not been the bridesmaid in the European Union’s real power games. IN HIS WORDS Now with Brexit, the lion is set to roar again, perhaps for the last Verhofstadt in an interview on October 18: time. Peeved at the sidelining of liber- I have a “I got into politics because when I was als like him from major EU leadership young — 12, 13, 14 years old — at home, posts, Verhofstadt, 64, maneuvered clear goal: we’d sit around the table discussing to create the role of Parliament Brexit to bring politics. We talked Kennedy and things coordinator, and then fill it. With “ like that. For us, talking politics was part Parliament wielding a veto power over forward of the family. When I went to university, I any final Brexit deal, that makes him went into a political movement of liberal Europe. students. In reality, I’ve done nothing else EU Brexit chief negotiator Michel Bar- in my life but politics. nier’s closer and, potentially, the U.K.’s It doesn’t worst nightmare. “I was elected as leader of my party at 28. work now.” It was a record at that time. I became, at 32, the deputy prime minister and budget One thing about Verhofstadt: While Guy Verhofstadt he’s always ready to do a deal, there’s minister in a government with the Chris- tian Democrats. At that time Belgium was always a price tag attached. And if the ‘sick man of Europe’ in terms of public there’s one thing we’ve learned about finances — a little bit the same situation negotiations so far, Britain doesn’t like as Greece or Italy today. Our debt was 138 Brexit price tags. percent of GDP. We launched the first plan

46 POLITICO 28 When you feel a little bit of resistance, don’t stop. If you hammer on the same nail, even on concrete, if you keep “hammering, you will get in with your nail in the end. We need to be ready in 2019 with a clear plan, a map of reform, for the EU.”

“With Brexit, both sides have an interest to have an agreement and a deal, and we cannot be too nervous about the fact that after the first negotiation round we didn’t find the final agreement. I don’t know how many negotiation rounds there will be, but ultimately I think we’re going to find an agreement.

“I have a clear goal: to bring forward Europe. It doesn’t work now, and this has been the cause of the success of populists and nationalists. In everything that I do now, that is the main thing, to use my skills for the pro-European reform agenda. Oth- erwise, this EU is doomed. I have learned from the past. When you feel a little bit of resistance, don’t stop. If you hammer on the same nail, even on concrete, if you keep hammering, you will get in with your nail in the end. We need to be ready in 2019 with a clear plan, a map of reform, for the EU.

“The problems of the EU didn’t start with Brexit. It’s a failure when a country leaves. It’s not a sign of success, it’s a sign of a problem. But let’s be honest. The State of the Union speech by [European Commis- to reduce the expenditures, and it gave Guy Verhofstadt sion President Jean-Claude] Juncker, with me later the name ‘Baby Thatcher.’ We (center) is joined by that content, was it possible before Brexit? succeeded. When I started, we had a fiscal Herman De Croo, left, [French President Emmannuel] Macron deficit of 13 percent and we reduced it in and Patrick Dewael at winning with that program, was it possible two years to 7.8 percent, and then created the Flemish Liberal before Brexit? I don’t think so. We need to a fiscal surplus. Party (PVV) congress grasp that opportunity. If we fail, it will be in 1980. Just two years the return of populists and nationalists. “A center-left government kicked me out, later, Verhofstadt Not with 12 or 13 percent, but 25 or 35 and I went 12 years in opposition. I found- would become the percent. ed a new party, the Open VLD. We had the party’s president at aim to undertake a 100-percent reform of the age of 28. “I have been told I am dreaming, it is not Belgium. We had a new program in which possible and so on. But you will see. Look at the citizen was the center: The subtitle of defense: [Greater cooperation] was unthink- the party was ‘the party of the citizen.’ If able a few years ago, like the banking union you look today at Ciudadanos and [French was unthinkable a few years ago. I think the President Emmanuel] Macron it was a little only way of survival for the EU is to make it bit like that. We became the biggest party a federal union. All the rest will not work. It in 1999. will collapse in one crisis or other.

“Belgian politics is always looking for “Something has been shaken by the a consensus, not only ideologically but crisis and Brexit. That doesn’t mean that also between communities, because it’s a we have won the battle for that agenda. country of different cultures, communities, We must still agree everything, reform languages. In the beginning, you think everything. But the spirit has changed it’s impossible to find the solution. But completely now. This morning I was nevertheless, you will find the solution. I working on the exit-entry system we will have never seen a negotiation go another finally have at the EU border. How many way. Every time, I got the impression that years after the Schengen agreement is it would be difficult, that I will not find it. it? Thirty-two years. No one is resisting And yet you find it. anymore.”

PHOTOGRAPH FROM BELGA ARCHIVES 47 11

AUSTRIA ARMIn WOLF

THE INTERROGATOR

f good journalism is democracy’s last line of defense, Austrians can rest easy that Armin Wolf is man- I ning the ramparts. With meticulous preparation and stubborn persever- ance, Wolf has established himself as one of Europe’s most skilled (and feared) is its undisputed star. The centerpiece of political journalists, making everyone from the program is a six-minute live interview, prime ministers to local politicos sweat usually opposite Wolf in the studio. When under the lights in his television studio. far-right leader Heinz-Christian Strache For 15 years, the blunt Tyrolean has chided Wolf insists downplayed the FPÖ’s ties with Vladimir question-dodgers with a sharp “You didn’t Putin’s political party early this year, answer my question.” live interviews rejecting characterizations of the rela- are “the tionship as a formal “partnership,” Wolf Those instincts will come in handy in the “ offered him a final chance to set the record coming months and years, with Austria’s fairest form of straight. far-right, populist Freedom Party (FPÖ) poised to join the next government along- journalism.” “Are you absolutely sure?” Wolf asked. side conservative boy wonder Sebastian “Yes, of course,” Strache replied, object- Kurz. The last time the FPÖ came to power, For untested ing to the term “partnership.” Wolf then back in 2000, party operatives targeted played a promotional video put out by Wolf, then the moderator of a midnight polititicans, the FPÖ in which Strache calls the Putin public television news program. “Wouldn’t surviving has arrangement a “partnership agreement” you like to do something else?” a network and a “very important step.” boss asked him at the time. Wolf eventually become a rite agreed to take another post only to land Wolf insists such live interviews are “the back in the interviewer’s chair — thanks of passage. fairest form of journalism” because the in- mostly to happenstance — a year later. terviewee has the opportunity to respond directly and unfiltered. For untested pol- Pushing him out this time won’t be so iticians, surviving Wolf’s scrutiny has be- easy. ZiB2, a 10 p.m. daily news program come a rite of passage. When Kurz — then on Austrian public television, is required a 24-year-old state secretary for integration viewing for much of the country, and Wolf — sat down opposite Wolf in 2011, few took

48 POLITICO 28 him seriously. After he held his own in the humiliates them. That is also true on interview, worries about Kurz’s youth and social media (Wolf has even more Twitter inexperience faded. followers than Kurz), where he has proved more than happy to engage his critics. At Still, in a society that places a high premi- I have a 50, Wolf, who grew up a world away from um on observing formal conventions of Vienna’s political salons in an Innsbruck politeness, many consider Wolf’s no-holds- particular housing project, says he’s unlikely to barred approach rude. He once asked a affinity for change what he acknowledges is a “polar- far-right politician who called the Proph- “ izing” style. et Muhammad a child molester “what debate.” someone like you is doing in parliament.” “I have a particular affinity for debate,” he A prominent Green compared the inter- Armin Wolf says. “I’m not on TV because I’m so hand- view to a lynching. some, but because I like dispute.”

In fact, even as he tests the boundaries, Wolf is careful never to overstep them. Armin Wolf accepts a Romy, an He might prod his subjects, but he never Austrian television award, in 2012.

PHOTOGRAPH BY HERBERT NEUBAUER FOR APA PICTUREDESK 49 12

LUXEMBOURG ETIEnnE SCHnEIDER

THE SPACE MINER

tienne Schneider wants to turn tiny Luxembourg into an outer space powerhouse. As the grand E duchy’s deputy prime minister and economy minister, he has worked to establish the country as a leader in off-Earth mining — attracting companies aiming to harvest asteroids for their minerals. “I tell my European colleagues, we cannot leave this to the United States again and to Asia,” he says. “Europe has to play a role.” zerland, Portugal and the UAE as countries Schneider, 46, first developed an interest sympathetic to his view of a harmonious in the subject shortly after he first became orbital order. Talks, he adds, are ongoing a minister in 2012, following a meeting with Japan, Russia and China. with NASA researchers. “I was wondering We cannot what they smoked before meeting me,” he To date, some 400 kilograms of lunar rock said. “[But] from that point on I dug deep- leave this to have been brought down to earth, but in er and deeper into the topic.” the United the future, enterprising miners could ex- “ ploit passing asteroids to support missions Fast forward to last July, when Luxem- States again across the cosmos, in addition to bringing bourg passed draft legislation giving home precious metals like platinum and companies the right to keep space junk and to Asia. potentially even water. from near-Earth objects such as asteroids. Up next: Schneider wants to get the U.N.’s Europe has to That’s at least a decade away. In the mean- Outer Space Treaty, first signed in 1967, time, Schneider is pushing to secure the updated to better specify who has the right play a role.” right for companies to use space resourc- to mined resources. es to do things like fuel satellites owned Etienne Schneider by Luxembourg-based communications Space, says Schneider, should be like the on off-Earth mining company SES. “We are the smallest international waters — no country owns country, but we are in the driving seat,” the sea, but anyone can fish. He lists Swit- he says.

50 POLITICO 28 Jupiter WHAT’S IN AN ASTEROID? Asteroids — like planets — are lumps of metals, rock and dust, sometimes laced with ices and tar — the cosmic “leftovers” from the solar system’s formation about 4.5 billion years ago. There are hundreds of thousands of them, ranging in size from a few meters to hundreds of miles across. Even a small, house- sized asteroid could contain metals worth millions of dollars.

There are different kinds of asteroids: Dark, carbon-rich, C-“ type” asteroids have high abundances of water bound up as hydrated clay minerals. Although these asteroids currently have little economic value since water is so abundant on Earth, they will be extremely important if we decide we want to expand the human presence throughout the solar system.

SOLAR SYSTEM DEBRIS Near-Earth objects have been nudged closer to Earth by the gravitational attraction of nearby planets. They’re categorized based on their distances from the sun: Mars

Earth AMOR ASTEROIDS Orbits approach but do not cross Earth’s Mercury orbit.

Sun ATEN ASTEROIDS Orbits cross Earth’s orbit. Venus

APOLLO ASTEROIDS Orbits cross Earth’s orbit.

“S-type” asteroids have a stony composition with very little water but they are more attractive invest- ments, since they contain a significant fraction of metal: mostly iron, nickel and cobalt, but also trace amounts of valuable elements like gold and platinum.

The rarest of all are them “M-class” asteroids, which have about ten times more metal in them.

Sources: NASA, Planetary Resrouces Reuters and POLITICO 13

TURKEY MERaL aKSEnERŞ

THE ARCH NATIONALIST

s Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan makes ever greater strides toward autocracy, the country’s A opposition appears powerless to stop him. The secularists can’t win over his voters. The leaders of the Kurdish-liberal coalition sit in prison. And the ultranationalists have taken his side.

Enter Meral Akşener. The veteran politician’s new party, İyi Parti (“Good Party”), is set to reinvigorate Turkey’s opposition opportunity to win over the conservative — and present a genuine threat to the and religious voters that make up Er- president’s political dominance. A long- doğan’s base. There are signs her party will time member of the hard-right Nationalist become popular: In spring, a survey found Movement Party (MHP), Akşener, 61, broke Akşener has that a majority of voters thought the time away earlier this year when its leadership was right for a new center-right party, and decided to support constitutional reforms vowed not to various polling firms have put support for designed to expand Erdoğan’s powers. And let Erdoğan Akşener firmly above the 10-percent hurdle since then, her popularity has surged. “ to enter parliament — more than enough to and his ruling upset Turkey’s political landscape. The reforms passed in a controversial referendum in April. But to cement his hold party win a Akşener’s potential to put Erdogan’s major- on power, Erdoğan needs to clear one final ity in serious jeopardy clearly worries the hurdle: He and his ruling party must win majority in pro-government press, which has set out to a majority in the presidential and parlia- smear her reputation. Erdoğan has so far mentary elections set for 2019, when the 2019 elections refrained from commenting on Akşener, changes will come into effect. — and she but it’s unlikely he will remain silent for long. Akşener has vowed not to let this happen might stand — and she might stand a chance. Unlike the remaining opposition, she has positioned a chance. Positioned on the center right, herself on the center right, giving her the she’s appealing to Erdoğan’s base.

52 POLITICO 28 14

POLAND ZBIGnIEW ZIOBRO

THE CROWN PRINCE

s Poland’s justice minister, Zbig- niew Ziobro is in charge of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party’s A most important political effort: the overhaul of what the party describes backtrack under withering fire. In an Octo- as a corrupt and ineffective judicial ber interview with Polish public television, system. That puts him on the sharp edge of Ziobro reminded Duda that he stands little Warsaw’s fight with the EU, which sees his Ziobro is one chance of reelection in 2020 without the effort as a thinly disguised attempt to place party’s backing, adding condescendingly the judiciary under political control. of the few that the president “has many positive politicians in characteristics and great opportunities It also makes him the second-most pow- “ before him.” erful politician in Poland, ahead of the the country president and prime minister, behind only Ziobro, 47, is also one of the few politicians the country’s de facto ruler, former Prime who has in the country who has crossed Kaczyński Minister and current PiS party leader and managed to survive politically. During Jarosław Kaczyński. crossed PiS’ previous brief stint in power from 2005- 2007, Ziobro was nicknamed the dauphin Behind Ziobro’s cherubic face lies a Kaczyński and — a reference to the French royal heir. But sharp-elbowed political warrior whose impatient for power, he staged a failed main concern is his standing with Kaczyńs- managed to challenge to Kaczyński in 2011 and, in 2012, ki, not criticism from Brussels. And on that survive. launched his own Catholic and nationalist front he’s been undisputedly successful, party, United Poland. After several electoral cementing his position as one of the party humiliations, Kaczyński brought Ziobro chief’s key lieutenants in July, after a bruis- back into the fold ahead of the 2015 election, ing fight with President Andrzej Duda. ensuring that the right-wing vote wasn’t splintered among a host of smaller parties. In an unexpected show of independence following massive anti-government street Ziobro and his supporters are waiting to be protests, Duda vetoed two Ziobro-backed officially readmitted to PiS — a privilege that bills revamping the Supreme Court and the Kaczyński hasn’t yet granted. Should that body that names new judges. Since then, happen, the signal will be clear: Ziobro is however, the president has been forced to back as Poland’s right-wing crown prince.

POLITICO 28 53 AGE 15 AGE 22 AGE 24 AGE 27 AGE 29 Founded Became Elected the Appointed Appointed the North a local youngest junior minister of Wicklow councillor. member minister health. Triple A of Dáil in the Alliance to Éireann, the department campaign Irish lower of finance. for better house of facilities parliament. for families 15 dealing with autism.

IRELAND SIMOn HaRRIS

THE BOY WONDER

imon Harris is nothing if not precocious. The 31-year-old Irish health minister was briefly tipped S as a contender for the leadership of his center-right Fine Gael party earlier this year before he ruled himself out, saying he didn’t have enough experience. IN HIS heightened political tensions. Harris will But Harris is no political ingénue: He was WORDS be the point man on a referendum to re- the only minister not to back the winner, write the Irish constitution to end Ireland’s now-Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, and still You can change one thing near-total ban on abortions in 2018, reviv- keep his job. “It’s not for me to guess why about the EU. What is it? ing the traditional clash between rising he did that,” Harris, a slight figure with Its relatability to citizens. I secularism and Ireland’s deeply religious a rapid-fire delivery, says with a laugh. think it does so much that is traditions. “There’s a very exciting dynamic now in so good, but the awareness Irish politics.” levels of this across the EU On the European stage, Harris has emerged and how it communicates as an advocate for countries to collectively Unlike many among the older generation its message is not good. I bargain with drug companies for better of Irish politicians, Harris does not come think we saw some of that in deals on medicines, a strategy he describes from a political family. He began his career relation to Brexit. as a “no-brainer.” He brings experience to in politics as a teenager on a quest for the task, having successfully negotiated a better facilities for his brother, who has a What’s the most important deal this year on drugs to treat cystic fibro- condition on the autism spectrum. Now at issue nobody talks about? sis, a disorder that is relatively prevalent the top of national politics, Harris is known Climate change is still in Ireland. “When you are younger you do for being the man who gets sent out to face getting nowhere near the work a little bit harder, and exceed perhaps tough questions when the government is amount of attention it what people expect of you based on their on the back foot. needs. stereotypes,” Harris says. “I think there can be advantages to that.” His task for the coming year: to steer the “Europe.” Pick three words health ministry — an infamously treacher- that first spring to mind. ous portfolio noted for churning through Solidarity. Collegiality. Simon Harris at the announcement of money and triggering crises — at a time of Peace. New Childrens Hospital Projects in April.

54 PHOTOGRAPH BY COLIN O’RIORDAN FOR THE IRISH INDEPENDENT

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SPAIN ana BOTÍn

THE STAR BANKER

f economic power has a face in Spain, it’s Ana Botín’s. Born into one of the country’s wealthiest families, a poly- I glot, a golf fan and proudly Spanish, Botín was appointed executive chair- man of Santander after the death of her father Emilio in 2014. That made her the country’s most important business leader, the fourth generation in her family to rule what is now Spain’s biggest bank — and the glamorous face of the Spanish business elite as it reemerges on the Euro- IN HER of unemployment — the gravest economic pean stage after a decade in the economic WORDS problem facing the country, according doldrums. to Botín. The EU, she adds, should “finish You can change one thing what it has begun” and move forward on a Santander close to tripled its profits from about the EU. What is it? banking union. 2012 to 2016 as Spain carried out a Make things happen faster. €41 billion bank bailout — in which Botín’s Having weathered the country’s economic company didn’t take part. Over the same Who are your heroes? turbulence, Botín now has to navigate her period, the country’s unemployment rate People who build bank through the Catalan crisis, Spain’s descended from a peak of 27 percent in companies, from the greatest political test in decades. She 2013 to 17 percent today. Spain has posted smallest self-employed will also be keeping a watchful eye on over-EU average growth for three years in a entrepreneur to the biggest, Brexit, and making sure Madrid does too. row, allowing Madrid to hold up its painful they are all heroes. With Santander makes 20 percent of its profits reforms as an example others should their work they are making in the U.K. and only 12 percent in Spain. follow. the world a better place and “In the U.K., we are a British bank … and helping others — from their will consider the implications once the Botín, 57, says Spain experienced a “turn- families to their employees outcome of the process is known,” she ing point” when it joined the bloc in 1986, and customers — prosper. says. which “led to a period of growth and mod- ernization that completely changed” the “Europe.” Pick three words country. She also expresses “confidence” that first spring to mind. Santander nearly tripled its profits from that Spain can deal with still-high levels Fair. Diverse. Welcoming. 2012 to 2016 as Spain’s economy lagged.

POLITICO 28 57 17

SWITZERLAND FLaVIa KLEInER

THE POPULIST BUSTER

opulism is like lead,” says 26-year-old Flavia Kleiner. “It suffocates society and blocks “P out the light.” As the face of the political movement Operation Libero, the blonde, blue-eyed history student has led a small army of vol- unteers to push back against her country’s swing toward the far right.

The group’s success in rallying voters against “popular initiatives” spearheaded says Kleiner, but it has been co-opted as a by the anti-immigrant Swiss People’s Party “marketing tool” by the SVP. Raking in 30 (SVP) has changed the conversation in percent of the vote, the media-savvy pop- Switzerland. Its methods could also be a ulist party is the country’s largest political blueprint for how to rebrand — and rein- I understand force. It has relied heavily on grassroots vigorate support for — the political center campaigning to gather signatures to push across Europe. people who Switzerland to the right. are afraid of When a popular initiative to limit immigra- “ Direct democracy — hailed by populists tion passed by a narrow margin in 2014, change. But we such as the far-right Alternative for Germa- Kleiner was struck by how no political ny (AfD) as an ideal model of governance party had defended the country’s liberal want to create — also requires near constant political values. She set out to remind voters of campaigning. The competition for people’s what was at stake: Switzerland could either a certain attention, not to mention their hearts and remain a bastion of liberal values, or it minds, is fierce. Kleiner’s first major success could become “a museum for an imagined optimism came in 2016, when Operation Libero led past.” about the the charge to defeat a bill that would have given the government license to deport for- Switzerland’s model of direct democracy future.” eigners for breaking the law — including for — any group can force a vote on an issue a simple speeding ticket. From across the by gathering 100,000 signatures in 18 Flavia Kleiner political spectrum, Kleiner had been told it months — is a “brilliant idea at its basis,” would be impossible to win on a platform of

58 POLITICO 28 defending “immigrant criminals.” WHAT WORKS WHEN SIX MORE Flavia FIGHTING POPULISM? QUESTIONS Kleiner Kleiner — who grew up attending political cheers events with her mother, a mayor — be- 1. Start with conviction. You can change one thing for the lieves in simple language. She chalks up Believe you can change the debate. Populism about the EU. What is it? defeat of a the movement’s first successes to speaking is not inevitable. Populist parties have just More women in leading right-wing with voters “at eye level” and reclaiming done a good job of making the most noise. positions. proposal talk of “Swiss values,” the rule of law and to expel all respect for the constitution, from the SVP. 2. Reframe the issue. Who are your heroes? delinquent She has retreated from Operation Libe- Remind voters of what is at stake. Ask them Muhammad Ali for being a foreigners ro’s day-to-day operations to focus on its to consider what they want their country crushing fighter and at the from the long-term strategy (and on finishing her to look like. Challenge the populists to same time charming, polite country university thesis). She says the group is defend themselves — bring them onto your and a sensitive thinker. last year. set to graduate from being a watchdog to battlefield. He was just a poet in his proactively setting the tone of debate. own way. 3. Work with facts. In the meantime, the movement has its Populists like to fudge the data. Fact-check What’s the most important work cut out for it, as Switzerland heads every statement. Point out every mistake. issue nobody talks about? for a Brexit-like vote next year on whether Europe needs to find common to “take back control” from foreign judges 4. Use simple language. ground on its future. and international bodies. It’s by far “the Speak to voters in the simplest language. most dangerous popular initiative” the Not because they’re stupid, but because they Tell us something surprising country has seen, says Kleiner. A vote to have other things to think about. To grab a about yourself. limit freedom of movement is expected headline, distill your message to one picture I love to stand at the edge of to take place in 2019, ahead of a national and five words. Social media is your friend a building site and observe election, as is a vote on the so-called burqa here: Work with memes, gifs, social media, the machines and the ban. video, testimonials. construction going on.

The key, she says, is to upend the dooms- 5. Become a fighter. “Europe.” Pick three words day narrative peddled by the SVP. “I can Go far out of your comfort zone. Face the that first spring to mind. really understand people who are afraid of trolls. Engage with the people who yell at you Peace, peace and beauty. a changing world,” says Kleiner. “But we in the street. Give yourself a bulletproof vest want to create a certain optimism about of arguments and anecdotes to answer any Where is the EU in 10 years? the future … We’re looking forward to the question, win any confrontation. Better and stronger than year 2050.” — Flavia Kleiner ever.

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Olga 18 Sehnalová

Lajos 19 Simicska

Euclid 20 Tsakalotos

Evgeny 21 Morozov

Khalifa 22 Haftar

Eerik-Niiles InSIDE 23 Kross Photographer Naomi Harris visits American-themed Mina attractions in Europe and Europe-themed attractions in 24 Andreeva the US, discovering culture turned into caricature. Page 62

Tino 25 Sanandaji

René DaTa POInT: 26 Redzepi

Mirga LIFE In EUROPE 27 Gražinytė-Tyla

Average time spent eating Klitos in a day, in minutes (in 2009) 28 Papastylianou

France 135

Italy 114

Poland 94

United Kingdom 85

Finland 81

Source: OECD

POLITICO 28 61

Left:

PonyparkCity E in Collendoorn, EEUSa the Netherlands.

Right:

WurstFest in New Braunfels, U Texas U

PHOTOGRAPHS BY NAOMI HARRIS

Europe and America are still obsessed with one another. For “EUSA,” photographer Naomi Harris traveled across both continents, documenting Sa Sa American-themed places in Europe and European-themed placed in America. Whimsical and quaint, “Europe”-themed events and locations in the US can be lands of make-believe, like something out of a fairy tale, or homages to their residents’ anticedents. On the old Continent, the popularity of American-themed amusement parks and festivals reveals a persistent enthusiasm for the myth of “America” as a land of freedom and opportunity. The intent of these places was to honor the “other,” but over the years, that’s turned into a caricature. See if you can tell which photographs were taken on which continent.

POLITICO 28 63 High Chaparral in Kulltorp, Sweden

64 POLITICO 28 Tulip Festival in Orange City, Iowa IN HER WORDS

The first place I photographed for EUSA was High Chaparral, a Wild West theme park in Sweden. The campground was full of people in costume. There were Native Americans (though these were blond and blue-eyed), fur trappers, pioneers and American Civil War soldiers — both Confederates and Unionists. Not a single mobile phone, digital camera nor any other sort of technological gadget was in sight. The campsites were primitive, with everyone cooking over an open fire. There was authenticity: from the attire right down to the bedrolls, every detail of the period was meticulously captured. If you didn’t know any better, you’d have thought you were in 1860s Virginia, not Sweden in 2008. — Naomi Harris

Above: The Last Indian Wars in Březno, Czech Republic.

Far right: Karl-May- Spiele in Bad Segeberg, Germany

Near right: Maifest in Leavenworth, Washington. Far left: Gipsy Horses Ranch in Westerlo, Belgium.

Near left: Westernstadt Pullman City in Eging am See, Germany.

Below: Maifest in Leavenworth, Washington. IN HER WORDS

The American destinations I visited tended to celebrate the heritage of those who settled in the area, such as the Danish in Solvang, California; or the Norwegians in Petersburg, Alaska; or the Dutch in Orange City, Iowa; whereas the European sites were more often about a fascination with American culture — albeit a culture of the past.

The question now is: How much longer can events like these continue, in an age of sensitivity about cultural appropriation? If we still feel the need to connect with our past — both real and imagined — rituals like these will go on. These photos are about taking a journey, but one where the destination is unclear. Are you in America, or are you in Europe? And who exactly are these people? Rock & Roll and U.S. Car Weekend in Agárd, Hungary

68 POLITICO 28 Little Norway Festival in Petersburg, Alaska About the photographer Award-winning Canadian-born photographer Naomi Harris primarily focuses on portraiture, seeking out interesting cultural trends to document through her subjects. Her latest book, “EUSA,” from which these images are taken, was published in November by Kehrer-Verlag. You can see more of her work at naomiharris.com and order the book at kehrerverlag.com. London Playbook

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CZECH REPUBLIC OLGa SEHnaLOVÁ

THE KITCHEN CRUSADER

lga Sehnalová has almost single-handedly shoved the issue of so-called dual foods onto European O Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s plate. The Czech member of the European Parliament is leading a crusade against the widespread practice by food manufacturers of offering different ingredients under the same pack- aging in Eastern and Western Europe. Sehnalová says. “That was always my goal.”

The bespectacled former doctor first stum- The Czech Republic is now at the forefront bled upon the issue in 2011, after a Slovak of a pack of Central and Eastern European consumer association noted that Nescafé Slovaks do not countries — including Hungary, Bulgaria Gold recipes differed between East and and Slovenia — demanding that the EU en- West, and that packets of pepper sold in Bul- deserve less sure that food sold across the bloc contains garia contained less pepper extract than an fish in their the same ingredients wherever it is sold. In identical product sold in Austria. Sehnalová “ a sign of Sehnalová’s success, Juncker has brought the results to the Commission, only fish fingers; taken on the issue: “Slovaks do not deserve to be told that there was nothing to be done less fish in their fish fingers, Hungarians since no laws had been broken. Instead of Czechs less less meat in their meals, Czechs less cacao giving up, she doubled down. in their chocolate,” he said in his State of cacao in their the Union speech in September. She commissioned Czech universities to carry out more research, brought up the chocolate.” Brussels risks deepening a rift between issue during TV appearances, held tasting East and West if it fails to put a stop to the events and organized public hearings in European Commission practice. But there are limits to what it can the Parliament. Finally, a 2015 study made President Jean-Claude do without drafting new legislation. While big news in the Czech Republic, propelling Juncker, in his state of the the Commission has hinted it will name Sehnalová, 49, into the orbit of then Prime union address and shame offending companies to change Minister Bohuslav Sobotka, whom she asked behavior, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor to exert pressure on Brussels. “I was always Orbán, for one, has said governments will trying to bring the Commission to action,” act unilaterally if nothing changes.

POLITICO 28 71 19

HUNGARY LaJOS SIMICSKa

ORBAN’S NIGHTMARE

ew people outside of Hungary are familiar with the name Lajos Simicska. And for much of the past F three decades, that’s exactly how “You work. They steal” and “They are the the Hungarian oligarch and teenage fear. We are the hope.” The government hit friend of Prime Minister Viktor back by amending advertising and party Orbán wanted it. financing rules as the prosecutor’s office The police launched an investigation into Jobbik. A member of Orbán’s Fidesz party since can come take its founding in 1988, Simicska, 57, has Over the past few years, Jobbik has pre- stayed largely behind the scenes, working him away, sented itself as an anti-corruption alterna- with Machiavellian efficiency to erect the “ tive to Fidesz and forced Orbán further to political and economic machine underpin- his empire the right. Observers have gone so far as to ning the prime minister’s power. By 2014, say Hungary now has two far-right parties. Simicska was one of the wealthiest and could be most powerful men in the country — the Jobbik remains a distant second in the polls. owner of a Fidesz-friendly media empire dismantled.” But many in Budapest believe Simicska and a host of businesses whose profits he may deploy his knowledge of Fidesz’s inner put in service of the party. Péter Krekó, director of workings and the prime minister’s private the Budapest-based life. A series of explosive disclosures could More recently, however, the two men have Political Capital Institute prevent Fidesz from winning a coveted fallen out, as festering private disagree- two-thirds majority that gives it the ability ments blossomed into an expletive-laden to change the constitution. It might even public quarrel. The upshot: As Hungary create an opening for Hungary’s fragment- prepares for a national election next ed opposition to try to form a government. spring, Simicska has thrown his weight behind the far-right Jobbik party, Fidesz’s If Orbán wins, all eyes will be on Simicska. fiercest competitor. He will have to make a decision: keep fighting the government or cut his losses and sell The oligarch’s media outlets have been his media outlets. If he bows to pressure, it hammering at the government. His bill- could spell the end of Hungary’s most signif- board company has plastered the country’s icant critical press, freeing Orbán to further highways and boulevards with slogans like consolidate power.

72 POLITICO 28 20

GREECE EUCLID TSaKaLOTOS

THE PRAGMATIST

f Greece exits its third bailout in August as planned, Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos will deserve much I of the credit. Not that many Greeks are likely to thank him. “You won’t see many happy faces in Athens,” says political analyst Yannis Koutsomitis. That’s because the reforms Tsakalotos and his boss, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, have implemented took a deep toll on Greek society. The government has slashed pensions, raised taxes and pared down the tics, Germany quietly hatched a plan to give public sector. More than 20 percent of the Greece a “time out” from the eurozone, an population is out of work. outcome that would have almost certainly resulted in a permanent “Grexit.” “When push came to shove, he was able to He’s not push aside his ideological preconceptions,” Tsakalotos, Greece’s eighth finance minister said Yannis Palaiologos, a Greek journalist someone in just four years, was given the thankless and author who has written extensively who will put task of keeping his country in. Just a month about the crisis. “He’s not someone who “ after taking office, he surprised many by will put politics above the interests of the politics above clinching a deal for a third bailout total- country.” ing €86 billion. His secret: convincing his the interest of Eurogroup colleagues that despite his com- When Tsakalotos took up his post in the munist past, he wasn’t interested in being summer of 2015, few expected big things. the country.” another populist poster boy. Yanis Varoufakis, his contumelious prede- cessor, had taken Greece to the brink of Yannis Palaiologos, a It wasn’t the first time Tsakalotos, 57, financial Armageddon, antagonizing Ath- Greek journalist and confounded expectations. He is the scion ens’ creditors with a devil-may-care attitude author who has written of a prominent Greek family that played an toward its bailout obligations. Europe had extensively about the crisis important role during the country’s civil little confidence that Tsakalotos, another war. A cousin, Thrasyvoulos Tsakalotos, tie-less economist with leftist views, would was one of the generals that led government be much different. Fed up with Athens’ an- forces to victory against the communists

POLITICO 28 73 in 1949. Instead of embracing that legacy, finance minister” and masterful negotiator. Tsakalotos rejected it, convinced the wrong side had won. That’s not an endorsement Tsakalotos will likely want to take to the ballot box. Syriza, What makes Tsakalotos’ political evolution Greece may the leftist movement that Tsipras and Tsaka- even more surprising is that he is a product latos rode to power in 2015, won support by of one of the most entitled circles in the be responsible promising to end the very austerity they’ve world — the British establishment. The son for many of forced Greeks to endure. Many of their of a Greek engineer who worked in the “ former supporters now feel betrayed. shipping industry, Tsakalotos left Greece at its problems, age five for the U.K. and was educated at an That said, the next election isn’t scheduled English public school and at Oxford. In the he argues, until the fall of 2019 — a lifetime in politics. early 1990s, he returned to Greece to work Whether Syriza can recover will depend as an academic and soon became involved but the forces in part on whether Tsakalatos can cash in in leftist politics. His sometimes fiery his diplomatic credit and help convince parliamentary speeches, delivered in En- that drove it to Europe to grant Greece some kind of debt glish-accented Greek, have become a guilty the brink are relief when its bailout ends. Greece may be pleasure for watchers of Greek politics. responsible for many of its problems, he deeply rooted argues, but the forces that drove it to the Though his privileged background has brink are deeply rooted in the EU’s own earned Tsakalotos an eccentric reputation in the EU. architecture, a reality he says Europe has in Greece, his high-born manners might slowly woken up to. explain how he won over his European colleagues. Even Germany’s famously cantan- “I believe that there is increased under- kerous finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, standing for the social and regional inequal- warmed to his Greek counterpart, recently ities which are the main reason for the crisis describing Tsakalotos as an “excellent … as well as for the general view that the eurozone and EU do not solve the problems,” he recently told a Greek interviewer. If he Euclid Tsakalotos, left, chats can bring others around to that view — and with Eurogroup President Jeroen if the economy, which has started growing Dijsselbloem, right, and European again, stays on track — Tsakalotos may be Commissioner Pierre Moscovici before a around longer than anyone bet on when he Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers. took over.

74 PHOTOGRAPH BY STEPHANIE LECOCQ FOR EPA 21

BELARUS EVGEnY MOROZOV

TECH’S DARK PROPHET

on’t call Evgeny Morozov an early adopter — unless you’re talking about casting a skeptical eye on Sili- D con Valley. Born in Belarus, raised in Bulgaria, and now living in Barcelo- na, the 33-year-old writer became so annoying to the United States’ techno-elite that Hillary Clinton’s former top digital adviser called him a “neo-Luddite.”

Former Yahoo fellows and Stanford schol- One of the reasons Morozov’s punches ars like him are supposed to found Silicon hurt when they land: He thinks big. The Valley startups. Morozov tackles them to “Great Firewall of China” is not a tool to the ground instead. His mantra: There is suppress free expression (though it does); “no digital paradise.” There is it’s protectionism in its purest form, he says. Beijing’s path to tech dominance, Long before Brussels and other European no digital helping China create massive companies capitals woke up to the dark side of digital, paradise.” like TenCent and Alibaba, has left Europe, Morozov had turned his baleful gaze on the “ with its digital floodgates wide open, remi- social, economic and privacy implications niscing about Skype and Nokia. Evgeny Morozov of recent technological breakthroughs. As the behavior and business models of Amer- Morozov’s most far-reaching prediction ican tech giants come under ever harsher is that the effects of the digital revolu- spotlights, Morozov — who most likely will tion will one day feel similar to those of have gotten there first — will be somebody climate change. Cars, air-conditioners and to watch. mass-market goods shuttling across global supply chains are great to have. But “30 “They offer all sorts of services for free,” years later the bill arrives, and you don’t he says of the likes of Google, Facebook know what to do with it.” and Twitter. But “we do not see the other end of the deal” — the thirst for clicks and likes, the concentration of so much private Hillary Clinton’s former top digital adviser data in corporate hands. called Evgeny Morozov a “neo-Luddite.”

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LIBYA KHaLIFa HaFTaR

THE STRONGMAN

halifa Haftar’s emergence as a Libyan power player didn’t receive the warmest of welcomes from K European leaders. A former general in Muammar Gaddafi’s army, Haftar fell out with the dictator in the 1980s and spent most of the intervening decades living in the United States. He returned only as the country was dissolving into civil war in 2011. waters and joined Macron in ignoring His consolidation of power since then — as ever-louder allegations of Haftar’s respon- head of the army in eastern Libya, where sibility for war crimes during his battle for he backs the largest rival to the U.N.-sup- control of eastern Libya. ported administration in Tripoli — did Haftar has little to enamor him to those across the For Haftar, the coming months are Mediterranean looking for stability and an understood pregnant with promise. Elections, if they end to the migration crisis. And yet, re- that migration go ahead as planned, would offer him a cently, the septuagenarian strongman has “ path to the presidency. Failure to hold been finding himself ever more welcome in for him is them, and the prospect of further cha- continental capitals. os, strengthens the argument that what the key to the country really needs is a strongman In July, Haftar, 74, was hosted in Paris with in Tripoli and a blind eye from the EU. U.N.-backed Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj international “Haftar has understood that migration by French President Emmanuel Macron, for him is what the Islamic State is for the who lauded the two Libyans for having legitimacy.” Kurds” — the key to international legitima- displayed “historic courage” in striking a cy, says Mattia Toaldo, senior policy fellow cease-fire and agreeing to elections early Mattia Toaldo, senior at London’s European Council on Foreign next year. And in September, Haftar was policy fellow at London’s Relations. welcomed in Rome by Italian Defense Min- European Council on ister Roberta Pinotti. She proved willing Foreign Relations to overlook his history of making threats Khalifa Haftar was welcomed with against Italian naval ships entering Libyan open arms in Paris and Rome this year.

POLITICO 28 77 23

ESTONIA EERIK-nIILES KROSS

THE BALTIC JAMES BOND

f Russia invades the Baltics, and many Estonians believe it’s only a matter of time, Eerik-Niiles Kross will I be waiting, ready to fight. He’s been warning of the Russians’ potential return since they left the last time. By day, Kross is a member of the Estonian parliament. But that’s like saying Bruce Wayne is a billionaire playboy or Bruce Banner is an atomic physicist. Kross, 50, is Estonia’s version of James Bond, with two differences: Kross drives a black D.C. security circles say the ban is mystify- two-seater Mercedes, not an Aston Martin; ing and unjustified. and 007 is a movie character while Kross is No one — least of all Kross — denies that real. At times, that can be hard to believe. his work has required him to move in shad- A former chief of Estonia’s intelligence The core ows and operate on the edge. “His back- services, Kross owns a private security ground is quite controversial,” says Urmas consulting firm called TRUSTCORP Ltd. question for Paet, an Estonian member of the European He was in Iraq working for the U.S.-led Co- Putin is: ‘What Parliament and minister of foreign affairs alition Provisional Authority, on contract “ from 2009-2014 who, like Kross, is in the with the British Foreign Office, after the can I get away liberal Reform Party. “He is often close to, ousting of Saddam Hussein. And he was in or crossing the limits.” Georgia during its brief war with Russia in with?’ He is In Kross’ version of his action-film 2008, helping direct counter-propaganda existence, there is no doubt who is the operations. constantly super-villain: Russian President Vladimir The Kremlin wants him arrested and Putin. “The core question for Putin is: has accused him of masterminding the pushing the ‘What can I get away with?’” Kross says. 2009 hijacking of a cargo ship carrying borders.” “He is constantly pushing the borders … timber (and perhaps a large stash of Airspace violations. Massive media crazi- weapons). The U.S. has barred him from ness. Constant allegations that NATO and Eerik Kross traveling there, except on official diplo- the West is to blame for everything.” matic business, for reasons that have never Kross is sitting at a table at the back of been explained. Kross and his friends in Frank, a stylish bistro and cocktail bar in

78 PHOTOGRAPH BY KRISTJAN LEPP VIA SCANPIX Tallinn’s Old Town that he co-owns with his wife, the Canadian-American filmmaker and artist Mary Jordan. Talking about the Russian leader both works up Kross’ appetite and prompts him to forget the food on his plate until it has gone cold. He speaks in perfect English but with one of those European accents that is impossible to place — educated, vaguely but then definitely not British, most assuredly not American. As Kross sees it, Putin “is sort of expanding the space of crazy stuff he can do. It kind of projects him as stronger ... So, he did Georgia, and he got away with it. Nice. Very nice. His math was clearly, with Crimea, that he could get away with it. He will see about east Ukraine.” Kross believes the West underestimated Putin and had no plan to deal with his revanchist aggression, as became clear following the seizure of Crimea in 2014. “There was not even a good set of threats,” Kross says. “There was nothing there. Obama, of course, always said the military option is off the table.” Kross has no trouble conjuring up what to his mind would have been a better, blunter approach: “A strong Western response would have been this: The moment the first little Green Men arrived, the phone call to Putin, ‘Ok, Volodya, you have 24 hours to get the fuck out of there, my Sixth Fleet is on the way. You take your fleet, and you take your Sevastopol base, and you fuck off. That’s it. Otherwise, they’re coming. By the way, we’ll kick your ass.’” The silver lining in Putin’s aggression was the wake-up call that the West couldn’t ignore. “The NATO border is a red line,” he says. “Now we have German tanks training in the Baltics. If you look at where they were before, that’s a dramatic change. It’s not that visible — they do not talk about it — but it’s really, really important.” In Kross’ world — and Putin’s — it’s tank treads on the ground, not pretty words, that matter. “Putin’s not reading the speeches,” Kross says. “He’s reading the signs, and what is the action? He’s like a blatnoi [thug] in a prison cell. He wants to see this new guy, with food from home in his bag, can I take it from him or not? That’s his thing.” Serving Estonia, and fighting Russia, is in Kross’ DNA. His paternal grandfather, Jaan Kross, was a member of the Tallinn City Council before World War II, arrested by occupying Russian forces as a “Nazi collaborator,” and killed in the Potma prison camp in 1946. His father, also Jaan Kross, who would later become Estonia’s most acclaimed author, was imprisoned in the gulag in northern Russia for eight years for “anti-Soviet activities.” Following in their resistor footsteps, Kross was an anti-Soviet, pro-independence activist in college. He went directly from university into government service in 1991 when Estonia finally broke free of Moscow. He was a diplomat in London and Washington, headed Estonia’s intelligence services, and served as national security adviser to President Lennart Meri. Kross was in a delegation that accompanied Meri in 1994 to Moscow, where a bit of flat- tery and a night of vodka drinking persuaded

POLITICO 28 79 President Boris Yeltsin to finally sign an agreement withdrawing Russian troops from Estonia after more than a half-century of occupation. For Kross, it was a moment of deep personal triumph. He later wrote an article recalling phoning his father that night and proclaiming, “We did it!” and describing his father’s response after a long pause: “Well, well, I did live to see the day.” Kross has been waiting ever since for the Russians to try to come back. “He, like a lot of Estonians, has been completely right about this,” says a friend. “They said Russia was going in the wrong direction when nobody had even heard of Putin. Those warnings were not heeded.” In the interim, Kross’ deep connections to Western intelligence agencies led to security assignments, and adventures, outside his small Baltic homeland. After the U.S. invasion that removed Saddam Hus- sein from power, Kross helped re-establish Iraq’s defense ministry and intelligence service. He retains contacts throughout the Middle East. “His favorite saying was, ‘Let’s do it!’ and still is ‘Let’s do it!’” says P.J. Dermer, a retired U.S. Army colonel who worked with Kross in Iraq. “He doesn’t get all wrapped around the details. You give him a one- page brief, and he’s the guy who says ‘Let’s do it’ when everyone else is saying: ‘You’re crazy.’” Kross also served as an adviser to then The Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to avoid embarrassment or a govern- Kremlin during the 2008 war with Russia. Officially, ment-sanctioned sale that Moscow was has pressed he was responsible for countering Russian forced to call off by the West or maybe by Interpol propaganda — making him an expert in the Israel. to declare disinformation tactics that only recently You give him Whatever the truth is, Kross denies any Kross a came to the attention of the West. But involvement in the affair. If not sea piracy, fugitive for Kross hints that his role was quite a bit a one-page he is certain the Kremlin would find some the 2009 broader and less defined. “In a war, you do brief, and he’s other excuse to come after him. Dermer, hijacking what needs to be done,” he says. “ the retired Army colonel, says Russia’s out- of the MV Russia’s feelings about Kross are mu- the guy who size allegations, if unfounded, were none- Arctic Sea, tual. The Kremlin has repeatedly pressed theless worthy of Kross’s creative big-think- a Maltese- Interpol to issue a red notice, declaring says, ‘Let’s ing. “One of his bumper stickers is ‘Why flagged Kross an international fugitive for the 2009 are we not pushing back on the Russians?’” cargo ship hijacking of the MV Arctic Sea, a Mal- do it’ when Dermer says. “It’s not important what it supposedly tese-flagged cargo ship that disappeared in is: push back. They push and nothing hap- carrying the Baltic Sea, allegedly after being seized everyone pens. Push back. Do what they do.” only a load by a small band of pirates in a motorized Estonians generally regard Kross as a of timber. rubber dinghy. else is saying: patriot, if a bit too larger than life. But they The ship was supposedly carrying a ‘You’re crazy.’ ” are also wary of talking about him publicly. load of timber, yet Moscow has never ex- Western friends and colleagues contacted plained why the boat’s disappearance set P.J. Dermer, a retired by POLITICO say they would put their off a massive hunt by the Russian navy. The U.S. Army colonel who lives in his hands but are similarly discreet Arctic Sea was ultimately found by a Rus- worked with Kross in Iraq — hardly a surprise since many work in sian warship near Cape Verde, and though intelligence. “No one will want to talk pub- eight men were convicted of piracy, the licly,” says one Westerner who considers true circumstances of what happened to Kross a friend. “They are all in the world of the vessel remain unknown. shadows.” The Russian military’s intense interest For Kross, the key thing — in the face of has led to speculation that the ship was new cyber and hybrid threats, not to men- carrying weapons, perhaps missiles or tion tanks on Russia’s western border and anti-aircraft systems, in what might have nuclear-capable missiles in Kaliningrad — is been an unauthorized Russian smuggling continued resistance. “We haven’t won, operation that the Kremlin thwarted no,” he says. “But we haven’t lost either.”

80 PHOTOGRAPH BY DARRIN ZAMMIT LUPI FOR REUTERS 24

BULGARIA MIna anDREEVa

JUNCKER’S VOICE

f — as the European Union’s founding documents have it — the European Commission is the “guardian of I the treaties,” Mina Andreeva is the guardian of its president, Jean-Claude Juncker.

As the Commission’s deputy spokesperson, the 34-year-old Bulgarian and German national serves as Juncker’s voice — especially when it comes to speaking to the German press. That makes her key to Juncker’s effort to reach out to the wider Andreeva does more than any of her German public, which will need to be won colleagues to convey Juncker’s thinking to over if he’s to push through his reforms to the outside world; just without the gaffes. the EU before Brexit day in 2019. She easily gets annoyed when others, I’ve always journalists included, can’t see her boss’ Born in Bulgaria behind the iron curtain, strengths as clearly as she does. Andreeva was eight when her family was wanted to allowed to join her father, a journalist who become a Her challenge in the coming year: to make worked for Germany’s Deutsche Welle “ the case that, while Emmanuel Macron TV station in Cologne. Until then, she spokesperson may be rich in charisma, confidence and remembers her Bulgarian mother talking ambition for change, it’s Juncker’s plans to her in English to prepare her for the end from when I for the EU that have the best chance of communism. “I’ve always wanted to of actually being implemented. The become a spokesperson from when I was was six years French president’s plans are bold, sure. six years old,” she recalls. What she wanted But Juncker’s are more attainable, his was the chance to “stand on a stage and old.” spokeswoman will argue, not requiring wear pretty clothes” and be the voice of changes to the EU treaties. something, or someone, that matters. Mina Andreeva

She got what she wished for. A loyal Speaking for Juncker, Andreeva must member of Juncker’s inner circle, win over the German public for reform.

POLITICO 28 81 25

SWEDEN TInO SananDAJI

THE COLD TRUTH-TELLER

weden’s fiery immigration debate has divided the country into groups for and against. But one econo- S mist’s writings are drawing readers from both sides of the debate. On his blog — and in “Mass Challenge,” a bestselling book he self-published earlier this year — Tino Sanandaji mixes fierce criticism of government strategy with policy prescriptions and reasons to hope for the future. “He doesn’t tell scare stories, he talks about a reality few want to more concentrated in that part of the pop- talk about,” is how Norwegian Migration ulation with an immigrant background.” Minister Sylvi Listhaug put it after a visit to Sweden, during which she met the Iran- Despite his critical stance, Sanandaji, 37, born economist. It isn’t too has defied attempts to discount his views as those of a xenophobe. Helped by deep Make no mistake, Sanandaji, who arrived in late, as long public policy expertise, he defends his Sweden when he was nine, is no fan of his as there is a positions with data — not anecdotes or adopted country’s historically open-door “ generalizations. And he’s far more scathing policies. But the target of his criticism is willingness about the far-right Sweden Democrats than not so much Sweden’s immigrants as it is he is about the government. As Swedes its inability to integrate large numbers of to learn from heading to the polls late next year strug- new arrivals. It’s a phenomenon, he argues, gle to make sense of competing claims that’s turning the country into a class-based the expensive on immigration, Sanandaji and his ideas society, with non-native Swedes increasing- are certain to gain ever greater promi- ly consigned to ethnic ghettos. mistakes of nence. “It isn’t too late, as long as there is a willingness to learn from the expensive “Sweden’s experiment with large-scale im- recent years.” mistakes of recent years,” he writes. migration from the third world to a welfare state has been unique in its scale but has Tino Sanandaji in many ways failed,” he writes. “Sweden’s Arriving in Sweden when he was nine, social problems are becoming more and Sanandaji is no fan of its open-door policy.

82 POLITICO 28 SYRIAN ASYLUM APPLICATIONS IN SWEDEN The highest After a peak year in 2015 that saw 50,909 Syrians applying for asylum in Sweden, applications are back down to 2012 levels this year. point In October 12,000 2015, 12,929 Syrians applied for asylum in Sweden.

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

1999 2003 2007 2011 2015

Source: Eurostat POLITICO

DENMARK REnÉ REDZEPI

THE FORAGER

t was René Redzepi’s obsession with local ingredients — from seaweed to insects and wildflowers — that pro- I pelled Copenhagen onto the culinary map and his restaurant, Noma, to the top of best-in-the-world lists. Now the 39-year-old chef wants to export Noma’s Michelin-starred philosophy — that a rare, locally sourced mushroom can be more luxurious than the world’s most expensive caviar — to the wider public. symposium in Copenhagen brings together At the heart of MAD, a nonprofit Redzepi like-minded chefs, farmers, entrepreneurs founded in 2011 to inspire and educate the and foodies to tackle issues such as envi- global cooking community, is Vild Mad ronmental sustainability and the well-being (Wild Food), a program that sets out to Food of overworked staff. introduce a new generation to the culinary offerings of their immediate surround- wouldn’t be At its August 2018 event, the nonprofit will ings. It includes a free mobile app that the great thing also launch Dispatches, a publication led acts as a roadmap to the Nordic region’s “ by Chris Ying — co-founder of the late, great wild plants and offers recipes, lessons on it is without American food magazine Lucky Peach. seasonality and foraging etiquette (only Redzepi’s scope and ambition is evident harvest as much as you can fit into a hat). the movement in the subject of its first issue: migration. Eventually, Redzepi says he hopes to make “Today’s world is struggling with — and foraging lessons in schools as common as of people.” curious about — questions of migration in a teaching children their ABCs. way we haven’t seen in generations,” says Melina Shannon DiPietro, Melina Shannon DiPietro, MAD’s managing Under Redzepi, Noma — set to reopen its MAD’s managing director director. “Food wouldn’t be the great thing doors in early 2018 after a brief hiatus it is without the movement of people.” during which it set up its own urban farm and revamped its menu — serves as the focal point of a movement reimagining the René Redzepi forages for produce on culinary industry. MAD’s annual culinary the Dragor Coast outside Copenhagen.

PHOTOGRAPHS: THIS PAGE BY ALFREDO CALIZ FOR PANOS PICTURES; NEXT SPREAD BY MARK MAHANEY 85

IN HIS WORDS

Redzepi in recent interviews

On inspiration “The day when there is no more to do is the day when you are burned out. There are endless possibilities. It’s just whether you can see them or not.” (BBC Radio 4, Desert Island Discs)

On local ingredients “When you see the world as your one big larder, then you can really start dreaming.” (BBC Radio 4, Desert Island Discs)

“It made me a happier person to understand the rhythms of nature and my connection to it and how we fit in in this ecosystem.” (MAD symposium)

On food today “We eat so much better, but we eat so much of the same. We used to have a bigger appreciation for seasonality … and for using your senses … We are so disconnected with anything related to food, where it comes from.” (MAD symposium)

On education “We should teach [kids] about food, how seasons work. We should teach our kids how our meat enters the plate; they shouldn’t grow up seeing it as just an ingredient. That’s the only way we can really get rid of this epidemic that is food waste.” (MAD symposium)

Does the restaurant have a role to play? “That is the big question. Some say yes. Some say, go back to the basement, chef.” (MAD symposium)

On community “You have to support the whole system, the whole community. That’s when things really take off. We’ve seen a really amazing transformation in Copenhagen.” (MAD symposium)

POLITICO 28 87 27

88 POLITICO 28

LITHUANIA MIRGa GRaŽZInYTE-TYLĖ a

THE FOREIGN TALENT

f Brexit Britain wants to prove it remains open to the world, Mirga Gražinytė-Tyla might be just the tick- I et. The young, energetic Lithuanian conductor is the musical director of the City of Birmingham Sympho- ny Orchestra, one of the country’s most prestigious musical institutions, which will embark on tours in Europe next year. She will also debut with the Orchestre Philhar- monique de Radio France in January, and makes her Carnegie Hall debut in May with the Met Opera Orchestra. good” in the “moving, changing and beau- tiful city full of air and water.” Born to a musical family in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, Gražinytė-Tyla Britain’s looming exit from the European left for the Austrian city of Graz aged It is not Union adds an element of uncertainty 11 to master her trade. She later added to Gražinytė-Tyla’s ability to live and the Lithuanian word “Tyla” — meaning necessary work in her adopted home — despite silence — to create her artist’s name. “It is at all to use assurances from the U.K. government it not necessary at all to use words in order “ wants EU citizens to stay, and welcomes to communicate through music,” she words in the brightest and the best, a concrete says. “Once you’ve experienced how this deal has not yet been struck. Brexit could communication works you get addicted order to also mean young talent from Lithuania and cannot stop.” She was chosen to lead will have a harder time following in her the Birmingham Symphony Orchestra in communicate footsteps. 2016 by its members, making her one of the world’s few top female conductors. through Asked how she feels about the U.K. soon music.” leaving the bloc, Gražinytė-Tyla skirts the Gražinytė-Tyla, 31, describes her new question to strike a more hopeful note: She home — the former manufacturing pow- hopes “all of our future steps will bring us Mirga Gražinytė-Tyla erhouse in the center of England — as the closer and to a deeper understanding of “Venice of Great Britain.” She feels “very each other.”

90 PHOTOGRAPH ON PREVIOUS SPREAD BY CHRIS CHRISTODOULOU 60+ POLITICO JOURNALISTS IN EUROPE POLITICO in Europe reaches Pageviews WITH 1.6 a monthly online 5 currently OPERATIONS MILLION audience of MILLION average around UNIQUE over 1.6 million PAGEVIEWS 5 million per IN THE US AND VISITORS unique visitors. PER MONTH month. EUROPE, POLITICO HAS THE LARGEST NEWSROOM Our VIP readers: Ambassadors Oﬃ ce of Council President DEDICATED TO Oﬃ ce of Commission President Perm Reps (COREPER II) POLITICS AND Heads of Cabinet National Ministers POLICY IN THE DGs MEPs WORLD.

53% 51% 49% 48% +159K TWITTER FOLLOWERS 43% POLITICO ranks above legacy companies like the Financial Times, The Economist, BBC, Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times, some of which were founded over a century ago. FACEBOOK PAGE FOLLOWERS 34% 34% +115K 31% RANKED AS THE 31% 27% MOST READ, #1 NEWS-MAKING EVENTS IN 2017 MOST INFLUENTIAL 32 CUSTOM EVENTS EU MEDIA PUBLICATION 5 SUMMITS 39 POLITICO 28 GALA DINNER Q: Thinking about your professional role, how inﬂ uential EU STUDIES FAIR or otherwise are each of the following in terms of your day-to-day work?

Base: All EU Inﬂ uencers (n=230)

Fairly inﬂ uential Very inﬂ uential 7,000+ POLITICO TIMES FINANCIAL ECONOMIST THE BBC TWITTER EURACTIV FACEBOOK TIMES YORK NEW THE JOURNAL STREET WALL EURONEWS Source: ComRes/Burson-Marsteller 2017 EU Media Survey TOTAL EVENT ATTENDEES 28

CYPRUS KLITOS PaPaSTYLIanOU

THE BIRDMAN

t can be lonely being an environmental activist in Cyprus. Politics is a contact sport on the I divided Mediterranean island, and campaigners can count on running up against business concerns, criminal networks and deep-rooted cultural traditions. “You’re always messing around with political and economic interests,” says Klitos Papastylianou, who has done as much as anyone to fight the illegal trapping of wild birds in Cyprus. repeatedly by a well-known poacher. “This is the challenge.” The issue is sure to heat up in the coming Cypriots kill some 1.5 million to 2 million year, after the Cypriot parliament passed birds every year during the migratory You have legislation last summer that activists season in spring and fall, trapping them say encourages the use of lime sticks by with fields of “lime sticks,” tall thin poles killing fields applying lighter sanctions to the practice covered with glue or sap. “You have, all over the than to other methods of bird trapping. actually, killing fields all over the island,” “ The government disagrees, arguing that says the 35-year-old activist. It’s a lucra- island.” the new law will fight poaching through tive business — the birds are expensive hard-hitting penalties. Brussels, already in delicacies — involving everyone from local Klitos Papastylianou a tussle with Malta over bird trapping, has farmers to restaurant owners, politicians warned Cyprus that it could face sanctions and organized crime. if birds are not adequately protected.

“Mafia is deeply involved in this wildlife Meanwhile, Papastylianou, who is origi- crime, and of course it’s a serious con- nally from the Cypriot capital Nicosia, is straint [in the fight against bird trapping],” gearing up for a campaign aimed at pro- he says. In February, members of the tecting two nature reserves from develop- Committee Against Bird Slaughter, a local ment. “We have to challenge political and activist group, said they were “violently economic powers in order to foster social attacked,” when their car was rammed and ecological change,” he says.

92 POLITICO 28 WHERE aRE THEY nOW? Catching up with POLITICO 28 alumni from the past two years

Tipped as its best hope for revival last year, the 31-year-old politician led his conservative Austrian People’s Party in a decisive victory in the polls in October and is on course to become the country’s youngest chancellor. His unlikely success marks a SEBaSTIan KURZ tectonic shift in Austrian politics, after more than a decade under a centrist coalition. No. 12 in the Class of 2017

Malta’s most prominent investigative journalist stood up to power and crusaded against big money and shadowy politics. Her death in October by car bomb, which may have been politically motivated, is DaPHnE CaRUana GaLIZIa sure to prompt greater EU scrutiny of the tiny Mediterranean island. No. 26 in the Class of 2017

When we picked Hungary’s prime minister for the top slot in 2016, we predicted his confrontational style of politics would become the new norm in Europe. Two years on, the Orbán way has caught on. Look closely at how EU leaders talk about VIKTOR ORBÁn migration policy, and it’s clear the Hungarian leader’s narrative is prevailing. No. 1 in the Class of 2016

Europe’s competition czar hasn’t let up the pressure on corporate titans since she ranked No. 2 on our list in 2016. After slapping down Apple and Google since then, the Danish politician is gearing up for her next big fight: taking on Silicon MaRGRETHE VESTaGER Valley’s tech giants over the way companies collect and use personal data. No. 2 in the Class of 2016

If Kaczyński was on a collision course with the liberal establishment last year, the Law and Justice leader is now fully at war. The powerful Polish parliamentarian — his party riding high in the polls — has cracked down on civic freedoms, JaROSLaW KaCZYÁnSKI kept the country’s borders firmly shut and stared down rebukes from Brussels. No. 4 in the Class of 2017

POLITICO 28 93 DaTa POInT: EUROPEan aPPETITES The European Union is supposed to be a single market of goods — but within that single market, there are very different appetites. Here’s a look at how taste and consumption vary across the bloc.

Eating Drinking Daily calorie supply, Liters of pure alcohol consumed per person, on average per adult, per year, on average

2,800 8 3,000 10 3,200 12 3,400 14 3,600

Highest: Belgium (3,793); Lowest: Cyprus (2,661) Highest: Lithuania (15.4); Lowest: Italy (6.7) Source: Eurostat Source: World Health Organization

Smoking Caffeinating Percentage of the Kilograms of coffee consumed population that currently smokes per person, per year, on average

10 4 15 6 20 8 25 10 30 12 35

Highest: Greece (37 percent); Lowest: Sweden (7 percent) Highest: Finland (12); Lowest: Romania (2.3)

Source: Eurobarometer 458 Source: International Coffee Organization

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