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Der Arabische Frühling Auslöser, Verlauf, Ausblick

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Der Arabische Frühling Auslöser, Verlauf, Ausblick Der Arabische Frühling Auslöser, Verlauf, Ausblick Studie des Deutschen Orient-Instituts September 2011 Jägerstrasse 63 d • D - 10117 Berlin • Tel.: +49 (0)30 - 206410-21 • Fax: +49 (0)30 - 206410-29 www.deutsche-orient-stiftung.de • www.deutsches-orient-institut.de • [email protected] Inhalt Inhaltsverzeichnis Vorwort ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Maghreb Tunesien....................................................................................................................................... 5 Ägypten ..................................................................................................................................... 18 Libyen ........................................................................................................................................ 34 Algerien ..................................................................................................................................... 60 Marokko ..................................................................................................................................... 67 Mashrek Syrien ........................................................................................................................................ 74 Libanon ...................................................................................................................................... 84 Jordanien ................................................................................................................................... 92 Irak ........................................................................................................................................... 102 Palästinensische Autonomiegebiete ........................................................................................ 115 Golfstaaten Saudi-Arabien .......................................................................................................................... 126 Jemen ...................................................................................................................................... 141 Vereinigte Arabische Emirate .................................................................................................. 151 Katar ........................................................................................................................................ 160 Bahrain .................................................................................................................................... 168 Oman ....................................................................................................................................... 180 Kuwait ...................................................................................................................................... 187 Externe Akteure Türkei ....................................................................................................................................... 194 Deutschland, die Europäische Union und der „Arabische Frühling” ........................................ 208 Vorstand und Kuratorium der Deutschen Orient-Stiftung......................................................... 221 Vorstand und Beirat des Nah- und Mittelost-Vereins- NUMOV................................................ 222 Impressum................................................................................................................................ 224 Deutsches Orient-Institut DER GRÖßTE SIEG DES ARABISCHEN FRÜHLINGS LIEGT IN SEINER REIFE; SEIT LANGEM HÄUFEN SICH DIE DEMÜTIGUNGEN, WIRD DIE VERACHTUNG IMMER UNERTRÄGLICHER, IST DAS FASS AM ÜBERLAUFEN UND DROHT SOGAR IN TAUSEND TEILE ZU ZERBERSTEN. DOCH DIE GESCHICHTE HAT IHREN EIGENEN RHYTHMUS UND IHRE EIGENE LOGIK, DIE NICHT IMMER DENEN DER HISTORIKER ENTSPRECHEN. Taher Ben Jalloun, in: Arabischer Frühling. Vom Wiedererlangen der arabischen Würde, Bonn 2011, S. 11. DIE REVOLUTION IST DIE ERFOLGREICHE ANSTRENGUNG, EINE SCHLECHTE REGIERUNG LOSZUWERDEN UND EINE SCHLECHTERE ZU ERRICHTEN. Oscar Wilde MAN KANN NIEMALS EINE REVOLUTION MACHEN, UM DAMIT EINE DEMOKRATIE ZU GRÜNDEN. MAN MUSS EINE DEMOKRATIE HABEN, UM EINE REVOLUTION HERBEIFÜHREN ZU KÖNNEN. Gilbert Keith Chesterton WER MIT 19 KEIN REVOLUTIONÄR IST, HAT KEIN HERZ. WER MIT 40 IMMER NOCH EIN REVOLUTIONÄR IST, HAT KEINEN VERSTAND. Theodor Fontane Deutsches Orient-Institut Vorwort Vorwort nen, für diese offen gezeigte Überraschung, war die als pauschalisierendes Mantra ge- brauchte Formel, die Araber seien träge, un- er Mann, der zu einem der wichtigsten politisch und genügsam, was in der Gesichter des „Arabischen Frühlings“ Konsequenz mündete, sie seien zu weit rei- Dwerden sollte, war bei seinem Tod am chenden Veränderungen im politischen Sys- 4. Januar 2011 gerade einmal 26 Jahre alt – tem nicht fähig. Dies war ein Trugschluss. im März hätte er Geburtstag gefeiert. Der tu- Dass nun der Widerstand aus der Mitte der je- nesische Gemüsehändler Muhammad Bou- weiligen Gesellschaften kam, verursachte azizi, geohrfeigt und entehrt von einer gravierende Argumentationslücken und zeigte tunesischen Polizistin, verbrannte sich aus auf, wie fremd „uns“ die „anderen“ arabischen Verzweiflung über die Korruption einer elitä- Gesellschaften bis heute sind. ren Bürokratie, über die Willkürherrschaft eines tunesischen Staates, der sich selbst viel Denn die plötzlich sichtbare Dynamik der Ju- näher war als seinem Volk. gend ist nur das letzte Fanal einer sich seit Langem wandelnden islamischen Welt. In fast Der Tod dieses jungen Tunesiers wurde der allen arabischen Ländern beträgt der Anteil Funke, der die Zündschnur entflammte. Mitt- der Menschen unter 25 Jahren mindestens lerweile gehen in vielen Ländern der arabi- ein Drittel. In Algerien, Ägypten, Libyen und schen Welt Menschen auf die Straße, Marokko sind weit über 60% unter 35, in Jor- demonstrieren für Würde, Teilhabe, Respekt, danien und Saudi-Arabien gar über 70%. gegen Armut, Arbeitslosigkeit und Korruption. Ebenso hoch ist die Arbeitslosigkeit, die z.B. Bouazizi wurde, ebenso wie später der Blog- in Algerien, Ägypten, Jordanien, Marokko, Sy- ger Khaled Said in Ägypten, in diesem „Arabi- rien und Saudi-Arabien offiziell ca. 10% be- schen Frühling” zum Symbol für viele andere trägt. Die Jugendarbeitslosigkeit liegt weitaus jungen Menschen einer entrechteten Genera- höher; so konstatieren Experten für das ölrei- tion, deren Wut, Zorn und Perspektivlosigkeit che Saudi-Arabien eine Arbeitslosigkeit bei erst das Regime von Ben Ali in Tunesien, spä- Saudi-Arabern unter 25 von etwa 30%.1 ter das von Hosni Mubarak in Ägypten stür- zen sollte und in anderen arabischen Ländern Gleichzeitig übersteigt das Bildungsniveau wie Syrien oder Jemen Triebfedern des Auf- zumindest das der Eltern bei Weitem. Dies stands sind. belegen auch statistische Einschätzungen des United Nation Development Programme Viel ist geschrieben und gesagt worden über (UNDP): So erreichten Länder wie Algerien „die arabische Jugend“, die mit ihrem Enthu- (Koeffizient: 0,708), Jordanien (0,797), Libyen siasmus, politischen Willen, Mut und ihrer Mo- (0,859), Tunesien (0,739), Libanon (0,797) bilität die „jungen Gesichter“ dieses oder Saudi-Arabien (0,779) verhältnismäßig „Arabischen Frühlings” geworden sind. Wäh- gute Bewertungen2 . Beispielsweise rangieren rend in der Vergangenheit ihre Bedeutung Saudi-Arabien, Jordanien, Libyen oder der Li- marginalisiert oder nicht selten negiert wurde, banon vor Ländern wie Türkei, Malaysia oder bilden sie nun die Speerspitze des erhofften China. Bahrain nimmt unter den arabischen Wandels – so stellt sich zumindest die verän- Ländern auf Platz 54 den Spitzenplatz ein, ge- derte Breitenperzeption in der medialen Öf- folgt von Jordanien und dem Libanon auf den fentlichkeit dar. Rängen 67 und 68. Schlusslicht auf Platz 171 von 177 ist der Jemen. Auch Marokko und Die Dynamik und die Wucht, mit der die tune- Irak bewegen sich auf Platz 139 und 144 im sischen, libyschen, jemenitischen oder syri- unteren Drittel. Bemerkenswert ist allerdings schen Jugendlichen auf die Straße gehen, in allen arabischen Ländern der Entwick- ihre Rechte einfordern und sich einem seit lungsfortschritt, der sich in den letzten 40 Jah- Jahrzehnten etablierten Repressions- und ren beim Bildungsniveau vollzogen hat. So Verfolgungsstaat entgegenstellen, haben in stieg in Libyen der Bildungsindex von 0,383 der internationalen Beobachtung zu Staunen (1970) auf 0,859 im letzten Jahr. Ähnlich ra- und Respekt geführt. Grund für dieses Stau- sante Entwicklungen vollzogen sich in Bah- 1 Die Diskrepanz zu den offiziellen Statistiken rührt auch daher, dass Frauen nicht aufgeführt werden, aller- dings häufig keine Anstellung finden, da die patriarchalische Geschlechterordnung in Saudi-Arabien den Frauen nur wenige Berufsperspektiven bietet. 2 Bei der Kategorisierung des UNDP beschreibt der Wert „1“ das höchste, die „0“ das niedrigste Bildungs- niveau. Spitzenreiter ist Australien mit einem Wert von 0,993. Deutschland rangiert auf Platz 28 (0,878). Deutsches Orient-Institut 2 Vorwort rain (0,511 auf 0,817), in Ägypten (0,333 auf gen standen im Vordergrund, keine Vision 0,647), in Saudi-Arabien (0,267 auf 0,779), in eines islamischen Kalifats, einer islamisti- Tunesien (0,346 auf 0,739) oder in Oman schen Herrschaft oder einer einenden (0,172 auf 0,706). ummah. Das Schreckensszenario neuer Got- tesstaaten erfüllte sich bisher nirgends. Auch Doch trotz all
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