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Residual Flood Risk Analysis for the City of Banda Aceh

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Residual Flood Risk Analysis for the City of Banda Aceh Residual Flood Risk Analysis for Banda Aceh Flood Control Project Masimin1) Zouhrawaty A. Ariff1) 1) Department of Civil Engineering, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, INDONESIA 23111 Email: [email protected] Abstract: Banda Aceh is the capitol city of Aceh Province located in the northern tip of Sumatra Island, Indonesia. The city has experiences in annual riverine floods due to an over capacity of Krueng Aceh River flood flow which flowing through downtown of the city. The Krueng Aceh Urgent Flood Control Project was created by introducing some technical flood protection systems such as river reach normalization, the construction of floodway, and the reconstruction of city’s drainage system. The city is already protected from floods to the magnitude of 1300 m3/s, but it is still exposed to a residual flood risk especially for the flood magnitudes of greater return periods. The study is executed by identifying the sources, pathways of the floods and the consequences city’s properties exposed to the floods as the receptors. The improvement of floodway capacity by widening the main channel from 80.0 m to become 260.0 m would improve its flow capacity from 1300 m3/s to become 3375 m3/s. This capacity is greater than that of design probable maximum 3 flood (PMF) that it equals to Q10000 of 2772 m /s. A south flood canal also needs to be built to intercept the floods from tributaries to not entering the city flood prone area. The residual risk of Krueng Aceh Urgent Flood Control Project (1993) can be eliminated by improvement of floodway and the construction of the south flood canal that Banda Aceh city would be proved of floods to the level of PMF. Keywords: riverine flood, residual risk, flood defences INTRODUCTION The Central Government of Indonesia was trying to protect people from harm to life and property as a never ending challenge that they are threatened by annual floods in their community. The programs were also worked for Banda Aceh city from Krueng Aceh River floods that inundating the city. The flood experiences tend to increase in their flood coverage area, water depth and duration to announce disasters. The disasters will be pronounced when an extreme event really occurs with the presence of vulnerability community and people at risk can not cope with the consequences of an extreme event and need outside help for recovery. The floods need to be controlled and managed. Flood management is defined as sum of all actions to be taken before, during or after any extreme flooding event with grave consequences. It consists of an operational and a planning phase. There are no technical solution to flooding is absolutely safe since it is hardly ever possible to offer protection against any conceivable flood. There is always a residual risk due to rare floods which exceed the design flood or improperly of the structural flood defences. There are four kinds of floods when distinguished to point out as disasters: (a) local, (b) riverine, (c) flash and (d) coastal flood. A local flood refers to drainage system of the city due to local high rainfall intensity while an inundation flood is characterized based on flow velocity, water depth, duration and the rate of water-level rise. Flash floods occur in a sudden, violent, short duration and unexpected way that they are very danger to everything: life, properties and infrastructures located in their ways. Detail explanation for both can be found in Kobiyama and Goerl (2007). Coastal floods refer to sea wave attacking the coastal region such as surge storms and tsunamis. This paper is only focusing on the riverine flood that the flooding waters from upper catchments of Krueng Aceh River inundated the lower catchments where the city of Banda Aceh is located. The city of Banda Aceh was already protected by some civil works including the construction of river embankments extended about 25 km measured from the river mouth and the construction of compound canal type of floodway. The canal had a function to divert the flood water before the waters was entering the river reach located in the city. The total length of the canal was about 9.5 km with the total width of the canal was about 300 m. The structures were set to control flood to the magnitude of 1300 m3/s that was proportional to the design flood of 20-year return period. It meant that the city of Banda Aceh was still under risks threatened by the greater flood waters called as residual flood risks. Since the structures would only protect the receptors for some level of flood magnitude, it needs to be assessed to define the acceptable risk levels. It is quite ideal to protect the receptors free from flood risks that design flood is to be set equals to the level of PMF or Q10000. Based on hydrological scenarios and topographic condition, the flood magnitude of PMF is about 2772 m3/s and to be controlled by the improvement of floodway dimension and the construction of south flood canal to the capacity of 3375 m3/s. When this proposed works applied, the Banda Aceh city would be free of threatened floods especially for its flood prone area. LITERATURE REVIEWS Flood Risk Assessment The framework of flood risk assessment method proposed by Pistrika and Tsakiris (2007) that the method consists of: (a) annualized hazard incorporating with both probabilities of occurrence and the anticipated potential damages, (b) vulnerability for exposure and coping capacity in the flood-prone areas and (c) annualized risk estimated on annual basis. The objective of flood risk assessment is to shift the current vulnerability to improve condition by introducing some flood control measures. The method for assessing flood risk is determined by the following steps: (1) risk identification, (2) risk analysis, (3) risk evaluation and (4) risk assessment. Risk Identification Risk (RI) is a nature of the potential to cause damage as a product of hazard and vulnerability divided by capacity for convenience (Khana, 2005). Conventionally risk (RI) as a risk index is expressed by the following equation. RI (H x V ) / C , (1) where H = hazard defined as a dangerous event such flood that could cause victims, V = vulnerability is the extent to which something to be damage by the impact of a particular damage and C = capacity that could be defined as the community to intervene and manage a hazard in order to reduce the ability of its potential impact. In the term of hydrology, risk is a function of return period and expected life of the structures as presented in the following relationship, where T = return period and n = expected life of the structure (Mays, 2001). RI 11 (1/T)n (2) In flood risk analysis, it is to confirm risk identification that consists of it sources, pathways, receptors and consequences. The source of flood is related to high intensity of rainfall and the pathway refers to dike and flood plain flow. The receptors are mostly the community and the structures and the consequences are related to damages and lost of lives (Samuel, 2006). In the floodplain management or flood control project, the following steps are applied including: (a) identification of hazards, (b) risk quantification, (c) consequences of risk, and (d) risk management (Ganoulis, 2003). Flood as Disaster Flood is natural happening of water flow fluctuation that affecting the resistance of the community who lives in the vulnerable area. Basically, flood can be divided in four categories: (a) local floods, (b) riverine floods, (c) coastal floods and (d) flash floods (WMO, 2008). Floods can be classified as an extreme events when the value of {e} in Eqs. (3) is in between 6 and 7 where Q is discharge (m3/s) and A is catchments area (km2) (Papp, 2002). logQ 6 e 10*1 (3) log A 8 Resistance (R) refers to the people income while vulnerability (V) refers to living cost (Vs) and economic damage (Vr) caused of flooding (Plate, 2007). It means that the flood might be called as a disaster upon the condition reaches, R – Vs – Vr < 0, DISASTER (4) Since disaster is non stationary analysis, it is better to put the expected values to above relationship (Eqs. (4)) to become Eqs. (5), ER EVs EVr 0 EVr RI (RISK) (5) The first two variables (R and Vs) are given in the community that too hard to work with, so that for avoiding the disaster, the third variable (Vr) or risk is only possible to be managed. The only way in managing the disaster is conducted by reducing the level of risk through the introduction of some civil works. Residual Risks The actual vulnerability always changes due to the changing of resources for different particular of time. Some factors that might be changed the vulnerability are the increase number of people exposed to the flood, land degradation due to deforestation or reduction of financial resources for coping. All of things are related to the risk categories that risk itself means a combination of the consequences of flood event and its occurrence probability (Ale, 2002; Plate, 2006). The residual risk is the remaining part of the risk after implementing a protection system. It covers the accepted risk, the unknown risk, and the risk due to false judgment or inadequate countermeasures and decisions. Another meaning of residual risk is the probability of technical or a human-induced failure of a flood protection system that occurs within a specified time horizon or the probability of an event larger than the design magnitude occurring within a time horizon (Plate, 2006). Flood is not only affecting the monetary sector but also for social and ecological sectors that they are also contributing the risk index applied to the system.
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