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4 Model Development Jernbaneverket Norwegian High Speed Railway Assessment Project Contract 5: Market Analysis Annex to Subject 1: Demand Forecasting Model Development Report Final Report 18/01/2011 /Annex to Demand Report-Model Development_180211.docx Contract 5, Annex to Subject 1 Demand Forecasting: Model Development Report 2 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for Jernbaneverket’s information and use in relation to The Norwegian High Speed Railway Assessment Project. WS Atkins International Ltd assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. Document History DOCUMENT REF: Annex to Demand Report-Model JOB NUMBER: 5096833 Development_180211.docx Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date 1 Final JA AB MH JD 18/02/11 5096833/Annex to Demand Report-Model Development_180211.docx Contract 5, Annex to Subject 1 Demand Forecasting: Model Development Report 3 Contract 5: Market Analysis Annex to Subject 1: Demand Forecasting Model Development Report Final Report 5096833/Annex to Demand Report-Model Development_180211.docx Contract 5, Annex to Subject 1 Demand Forecasting: Model Development Report 4 Table of contents 1 Introduction 6 1.1 Background 6 1.2 Overall Context of the Market Analysis Contract 7 1.3 Purpose of the Report 7 1.4 Structure of the Report 7 2 Overview 9 2.1 Corridors 9 2.2 Key Model Outputs 10 2.3 Modelling and Forecasting Challenges 10 3 Modelling Overview 12 3.1 Forecasting Approach 12 3.2 Key Features of Norway NHSRDM 13 3.3 Modelling Framework 13 3.4 Mode Choice Model 14 3.5 Form and Structure 15 3.6 Benefits of Form and Structure 16 3.7 Scope of the Model 17 4 Model Development 19 4.1 Demand Matrices 19 4.2 Utility of Travel 24 4.3 Model Formulation 29 4.4 Mode Choice Parameters 32 5 Model Validation 35 5.1 Introduction 35 5.2 Base Matrices Validation 35 5.3 Valuations 35 5.4 Implied Elasticities 36 5.5 Comparisons with observed data 37 6 NTM5 40 6.1 Introduction 40 6.2 Suitability for assessing HSR 40 6.3 Representation of Scenarios A and B 40 7 Recommendations 42 List of Tables Table 4.1 – Avinor air passenger journeys (2009) 21 Table 4.2 – Adjustment factors applied to NTM5 matrices 21 Table 4.3 – Components of utility 29 Table 4.4 – Estimation results 33 5096833/Annex to Demand Report-Model Development_180211.docx Contract 5, Annex to Subject 1 Demand Forecasting: Model Development Report 5 Table 4.5 – Household income growth 34 Table 5.1 – Values of time per hour for long-distance private travel in Norway, NOK (2009) 35 Table 5.2 – Average values of time per hour from current study, NOK (2010) 35 Table 5.3 – HSR implied in-vehicle time elasticities 36 Table 5.4 – HSR implied fare elasticities 37 Table 6.1 – Representation of changes in supply in NTM5B 41 List of Figures Figure 2.1 – Notional corridors studied (alignments may vary or be combined) 9 Figure 3.1 – Modelling Framework 14 Figure 5.1 – Rail-Air market share (Steer Davies Gleave, 2006) 38 Appendices A. HSR and air levels of service 45 B. Use of Existing NTM5B Model 54 C. Zoning system 59 C.1 Introduction 60 C.2 Requirements 60 C.3 Methodology 60 C.4 List of Zones 61 C.5 Map of Zones 65 5096833/Annex to Demand Report-Model Development_180211.docx Contract 5, Annex to Subject 1 Demand Forecasting: Model Development Report 6 1 Introduction 1.1 Background Jernbaneverket has been mandated by the Norwegian Ministry of Transport and Communications to assess the issue of High Speed Rail (HSR) lines in Norway. There is a National Transport Plan covering the period from 2010-2019 which includes relatively minor enhancements to the railway network. The ministry wishes to understand if going beyond this and implementing a step change in rail service provision in the form of higher speed concepts could “contribute to obtaining socio-economically efficient and sustainable solutions for a future transport system with increased transport capacity, improved passability and accessibility”. Previous studies have been carried out looking into HSR in Norway and there are various conflicting views. The aim of this study is to provide a transparent, robust and evidence based assessment of the costs and benefits of HSR to support investment decisions. The study has been divided into three phases. • In Phase 1, which was completed in July 2010, the knowledge base that already existed in Norway was collated, including outputs from previous studies. This included the studies that already were conducted for the National Rail Administration and the Ministry of Transport and Communication, but also publicly available studies conducted by various stakeholders, such as Norsk bane AS, Høyhastighetsringen AS and Coinco North. • The objective of Phase 2 is to identify a common basis to be used to assess a range of possible interventions on the main rail corridors in Norway, including links to Sweden. The work in Phase 2 will use and enhance existing information, models and data. New tools will be created where existing tools are not suitable for assessing high speed rail. • In Phase 3 the tools and guiding principles established in Phase 2 will be used to test scenarios and options on the different corridors. This will provide assessments of options and enable recommendations for development and investment strategies in each corridor. This report is a component of the Phase 2 work. The principles established in Phase 2 are to be used to test four scenarios: • Scenario A – reference case. This is a continuation of the current railway policy and planned improvements, with relatively minor works undertaken shown in the National Transport Plan from 2010-2019. This forms the ‘do minimum’ scenario to which the other scenarios will be compared; • Scenario B – upgrade. A more offensive development of the current infrastructure, looking beyond the ‘InterCity’ area; • Scenario C – major upgrades achieving high-speed concepts. This is to be based on an aggressive upgrade of the existing network to provide a step change in journey times; and • Scenario D – new HSR. This involves the implementation of newly built, separate HSR lines. The improvements are being considered on six corridors: • Oslo – Bergen; • Oslo – Trondheim; • Oslo – Kristiansand and Stavanger; • Bergen – Stavanger; • Oslo – Stockholm (to Skotterud in Norway); and 5096833/Annex to Demand Report-Model Development_180211.docx Contract 5, Annex to Subject 1 Demand Forecasting: Model Development Report 7 • Oslo – Gothenburg (to Halden in Norway). The scenarios will be considered in relation to the long distance travel market, for example for journeys over 100km in distance. Other studies, such as the InterCity Study will look at initiatives for shorter distance travel at a more regional level. Various route alignments, stop patterns, station designs, speed standards and fares will be tested. It will be necessary to assess conditions related to income and costs, environmental concerns, energy consumption, maintenance under winter conditions and the procurement and operational organisation of the services and infrastructure. 1.2 Overall Context of the Market Analysis Contract To achieve Phase 2 of the study, Jernbaneverket has commissioned 6 Contracts: • Technical and Safety Analysis; • Rail Planning and Development; • Environmental Analysis; • Commercial and Contract Strategies; • Market Analysis; and • Financial and Economic Analysis WS Atkins International Ltd (Atkins) is assisting Jernbaneverket in two of the contracts: Market Analysis and Financial and Economic Analysis. This report is part of the Market Analysis Contract. The Market Analysis contract consists of five Subjects: • Subject 1: Demand potential for high speed rail services in Norway; • Subject 2: Analysis of expected amount of ticket revenues; • Subject 3: Passengers choice – preferences for travel and means of transport; • Subject 4: Location and services of stations / terminals; and • Subject 5: Market conditions for fast freight trains. The purpose of the Market Analysis Contract is to establish the size of the potential HSR passenger and freight markets under different HSR scenarios. This involves identifying the current market and its projected growth, mode share and the preferences and priorities of those markets. The current market is used as a basis, together with expected willingness to pay for new services, to forecast how much of this market would be attracted to new HSR scenarios, and how much additional demand may be induced. 1.3 Purpose of the Report As part of the Market Analysis contract this report is supplementary to the main Demand Forecasting report and provides technical details in developing the forecasting model. The report describes the main features of the modelling framework and of the mode choice model. For the sake of clarity, this report does not provide model outputs, which are described within the main Demand Forecasting report and technical annexes. 1.4 Structure of the Report The rest of this report is set out as follows: • Chapter 2 provides a contextual overview of the market analysis contract including its key outputs and challenges; 5096833/Annex to Demand Report-Model Development_180211.docx Contract 5, Annex to Subject 1 Demand Forecasting: Model Development Report 8 • Chapter 3 provides an overview of the modelling approach and its advantages compared to alternative approaches considered. This section also discussed the scope of the model in terms of its zoning structure and segmentation in terms of modes, markets and time periods. • Chapter 4 gives a detailed description of the key elements of the new model developed for the testing of high speed options. This provides specific details on the modelling framework and the development of the detailed inputs feeding into the mode choice model. In particular this concentrates on the forms and origins of the: - Demand matrices; - Generalised cost matrices including station access; and - Mode choice parameters and equations • Chapter 5 covers validation and performance of the above model; and • Chapter 6 describes the use of the existing NTM5 model for the testing of Scenarios A and B.
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