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ICRAF) IGNITE Session, FC14, Washington, Nov 2015 Big Data, Evidence and Impact

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ICRAF) IGNITE Session, FC14, Washington, Nov 2015 Big Data, Evidence and Impact From Big Data to Big Evidence to Big Impact at Landscape Scale Tony Simons, World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) IGNITE Session, FC14, Washington, Nov 2015 Big Data, Evidence and Impact 1. Cocoa Landscapes (PPP) 2. Greening India (Policy) 3. Data to Decisions (Land Use) Land Equivalent Raos (LERs) Agriculture Agroforestry components Agriculture + Forestry Value of enterprise and ecosystem services from crop, grass and livestock Forestry Value of enterprise and ecosystem services from tree and Source: C. Dupraz, F. Liagre, AGROOF shrub component 1. Cocoa Landscapes Agrisystems Consor=um, 2008 Source: Number of plots surveyed low too are Yields Cocoa 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 Etude sur les revenus et les inves?ssements des producteurs de café et de cacao en Côte d’Ivoire 0-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 0.5 MT/ha 400-500 500-600 Yield classificaRon (kg/ha) 600-700 700-800 800-900 threshold New farmer 900-1000 1000-1100 1100-1200 1200-1300 1500kgs On farm Managed Researcher 1300-1400 1400-1500 1500-1600 1600-1700 1700-1800 , 1800-1900 2500kgs On staon 1900-2000 MARS-ICRAF-CDI Government Public Private Partnership ~40 idenRfied QTLs 1 2 3 4 5 0.0 cir120 cir150 0.0 cir242 0.0 WRKY-10 0.0 cir184 0.0 cir252 2.1 cir153 1.5 cir234 0.3 cir111 in cacao 5.1 cir19 3.8 cir198 3.8 cir241 1.3 cir232 5.4 TIR2 5.1 cir233 2.1 cir119 9.2 cir240 9.6 cir146 5.2 shrs37 11.6 cir161 9.4 Tce195 cir118 16.0 cir3 10.7 cir21 11.2 cir117 7.4 shrs12 15.7 cf974239 20.9 Tce089 10.9 cir192 14.5 cir33 7.6 shrs11 23.4 cir129 11.6 cir62 14.8 cir237 13.5 cir148 18.2 shrs22 23.8 shrs21 12.3 cir40 20.6 cir95 shrs6 13.9 cir247 23.3 shrs33 21.5 cir10 cir143 32.3 ca797995 17.0 cir204 26.1 Tce030 Witches’ Broom 28.9 26.2 cir32 cir196 cir159 cir268 19.5 Tce380A 32.0 cir43 26.8 Resistance 37.4 cir152 21.6 cir180 cir123 34.2 cir12 27.7 cir42 39.4 cir102 38.5 shrs13 31.4 cir175 39.6 cir280 31.5 cir169 45.0 WRKY-14 cir149 Frosty Pod 46.5 cir29 48.5 cir60 40.6 cir289 39.8 cir139 42.0 cir78 cir256 Resistance 51.0 cf972885 50.1 cir165 cir213 40.7 cir170 53.3 cir249 45.4 cir263 48.6 51.3 shrs2 48.0 cir219 cir206 47.7 shrs19 54.7 shrs3 57.7 cir162 48.8 cir245 60.4 cir244 63.6 cir254 Pod Weight 63.9 cir135 cir69 61.1 shrs23 59.4 Tce380 49.1 WRKY-11 62.7 cir246 64.1 cir128 66.4 cir140 52.3 TIR4 65.8 cir273 70.5 cir48 52.6 TIR3 68.4 cir286 70.1 shrs7 63.7 shrs4 Pod Number 69.0 shrs34 shrs5 70.4 cir226 67.6 cir87 70.8 cir131 75.3 cir115 73.0 cir80 80.1 Tce574 85.4 cir230 71.4 cir202 cir109 Trunk Circumference 86.1 cir228 72.1 cir144 84.9 cir101 88.0 WRKY-03 73.0 ca798018 87.7 cir275 85.3 cir274 93.5 cir68 79.5 cir81 9 89.9 cir264 cir261 91.6 ca795469 Jorque]e Height 93.5 cir22 100.5 cir73 0.0 cir79 RGH11 cir269 3.4 cir85 10 97.0 cir194 0.0 cir37 Bean Length 4.7 cir223 11.2 RGH7 6 7 8 cir64 Pod Number & Wet 24.0 cir98 13.4 RGH8 0.0 ca972846 Bean Weight 0.0 cir6 0.0 cir103 24.8 cir283 1.5 cir136 1.7 cir186 3.0 cir134 23.3 cir61 5.4 cir277 32.8 cir212 3.2 5.4 cir189 RGH2 Frosty Pod Resistance 10.5 cir53 cir116 36.4 cir58 4.4 cir179 13.5 Tce487 40.6 cir104 & Wet Bean Weight 5.7 cir177 16.8 cir26 45.0 cir8 41.3 cir155 8.0 cir147 47.5 cir178 10.2 cir55 23.0 cir200 32.2 cir71 12.4 cir56 34.3 cir276 55.2 cir160 Black Pod cir46 58.0 cir157 57.8 cir229 34.7 16.6 cir211 60.5 cir35 37.4 cir25 cir181 33.3 shrs20 22.8 RGH4 35.2 cir225 67.0 cf972909 26.1 RGH5 68.5 cir24 73.3 cir251 Bean Weight, Bean Thickness, 54.3 cir209 33.1 cir13 74.1 cir30 57.9 cir9 37.4 RGH1 45.1 cir282 79.5 cir166 Pod Weight & Pod Length 59.9 cir291 43.7 cir190 83.2 cir250 44.1 cir141 51.1 cir1 86.0 cir126 88.1 cir108 88.6 cir266 Bean Length, Seed Weight,Ovule cir72 Number, & Trunk Circumference 94.6 cir287 95.4 cir243 Robust Evidence for targeng in cocoa landscapes V4C project implementa/on area with the 16 Cocoa Development Centres and 47 Cocoa Village Centres Use of clones and hybrid seeds Seedlings of improved cocoa Newly graed seedlings variees produced in V4C for the establishment of nursery at Soubre clonal gardens 22 months aer side graing, from 4-5 pods to 20-30 pods per tree 2. Why an Agroforestry Policy Initiative? Evidence of strong policy effects with respect to the adoption of agroforestry,• 9 EU Countries with NaRonal Agroforestry Policy the policy arena for agroforestry is complex, and collaboration• 2013 AF included in new CAP in EC and coordination would seem to enhance likelihood of success • Some keyNov 2014, AF added as eligible in CDM for LULUCF policy areas for agroforestry include: • • unintendedAF is one of two eligible miRgaRon acRons in adverse effects of forestry regulations • property rights laws or arrangements that may discourage agroforestry EC 2020 Climate Policy • fragmentation of agroforestry related mandates across ministries • incentives favoring short term over long term investment • Inadequate recognition, valuation, and reward of environmental services • poor information and germplasm systems in agroforestry Privileged to be invited by India to work with them on an Agroforestry Policy Related to several other GOI processes India set a goal of moving from 24% tree cover to 33% tree cover by 2030 Now part of India INDC ICRAF is the only Non-State Actor included 42% of all Government Tax Revenue to States $85 billion p.a. total 7.5% ($6 billion) weighted by tree cover One of largest PES in world ($120 per ha p.a.) Supported by an Agroforestry Mission ($160 m) Review&of&the&Evidence&on&Indicators,& Metrics(and(Monitoring(Systems! Commissioned by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) Conducted by the CGIAR Program on Water, Land & Ecosystems Coordinated by the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) Authors: Keith D Shepherd1, Andrew Farrow2, Claudia Ringler3, Anja Gassner1, Devra Jarvis4 1 World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) 2 Consultant for World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) 3 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 4 Bioversity International Surveillance science! Land health metrics" Sen=nel sites Randomized sampling schemes Consistent field protocol Coupling with remote Prevalence, Risk factors, Digital mapping sensing Soil spectroscopy Soil Carbon (30m x 30m) Can guide be]er decisions Over 1800 Datasets Stakeholder Approach to Risk Informed and evidence Base Decision Making Turkana County Revised Decision Cycle Resilience Mapping IUCN Mobile Phone App www.vegetaonmap4africa.org The polical Process versus Science With COP21 and SDGs roll out up we have high aspiraons, but it is a polical process. Whilst we look up to our poliRcians …. who do they look up to? The CGIAR .
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